Eden why am I still alive tho? If its lians mafia plan to afk vote you and go for the win. Wheres the mafia motivation in risking keeping me in the game and finding mafia?

Who did ls say he was going to vote for? It was you right?

Let me explain my thoughts. Whoever mafia is is keeping the option of a counter claim open. Thats the only reason I can be alive. If lian wants to afk as mafia it cant be him. Unless hes just lying about that.

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 16 2015 03:49 GMT

#1505

On January 16 2015 12:34 sicklucker wrote:
Eden why am I still alive tho? If its lians mafia plan to afk vote you and go for the win. Wheres the mafia motivation in risking keeping me in the game and finding mafia?

Who did ls say he was going to vote for? It was you right?

Let me explain my thoughts. Whoever mafia is is keeping the option of a counter claim open. Thats the only reason I can be alive. If lian wants to afk as mafia it cant be him. Unless hes just lying about that.

I'm not really sure why they shot LS. There are obvious reasons - he's confirmed town, he didn't have clear reads afaik so shooting him is information denial - but they seem obviously less important than killing an un-cc'd tracker.

The thing is, I feel like cc'ing you is a terrible plan if that's what they're doing. mderg can't do it because he's caught, and coming out at MYLO with a cc instead of contesting it while there were MLs to burn is unbelievably shitty play for a PR (read: would never be believed coming from mafia). It just seems like if that's what they're doing, they're screwing themselves over.

Literally the only thing that makes sense to me with what I know is that they wanted you to spend another day yelling at people to kill me so I can get mislynched at 4p. Because I can tell you for sure that if I'm mafia and you're right about me, I'm never leaving you alive as a claimed tracker

sicklucker

Canada16986 Posts

January 16 2015 03:54 GMT

#1506

Dat answers too good. My thoughts are that there could be a mafia in bats/loli. I dont see why a eden/mderg or lian/mderg would ever leave me alive here. They would tthink id track mderg/eden right?

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 16 2015 04:32 GMT

#1507

Well, like I said before, your tracking doesn't actually do anything if they were smart about the nightkill. If we want to expand the teams under consideration to include batsnacks and lalalipop, I don't think the decisionmaking changes in any significant sense; you still either have mderg put the kill in (if he's mafia and caught) or you have batsnacks/lalalipop do it (since you figure the tracker isn't going to bother with them).

I guess now would be a good time to reread batsnacks.

I feel like we can throw out lalalipop because of Breshke's play + the fact that Breshke was the roleblocker. If you look at the possible mafia roles in the OP and the town roles we now know we have, the only mafia role that has actual utility this game is the roleblocker. The godfather and framer don't matter without a cop. That means Breshke was almost certainly not involved in any kind of shenanigans to save lalalipop, because it would have been better to sacrifice lalalipop and have Breshke bus for towncred.

Honestly we're back to where we were a day or so ago, if you believe batsnacks is town then mderg is auto-mafia and you have me and liancourt thunderdome at 4p MYLO. If you think batsnacks is mafia, the picture becomes a lot murkier.

Three possible pairs FMPOV are:
lian/mderg - Talked at length about this, lian is the guy on which I have the best case I think, mderg is auto if you think batsnacks is town. I've been assuming bats is town, I'll reread to confirm.
lian/bats - Would actually be a great play. They leave SL alive figuring he'll get people to mislynch mderg thinking it's auto. Would also explain lian dropping a vote on me and bouncing.
mderg/bats - I guess it's possible but if lian isn't mafia I'll shit bricks.

Now I wanna switch to liancourt. But I felt like batsnacks was pretty townie when we were talking a couple days ago itt. If I reread batsnacks and come back finding him to be not clearly mafia then I'll just stay on mderg for the high-% play, if batsnacks is in doubt then I feel like I have to kill liancourt since he's the guy on which I actually have a case besides POE.

lalalipop

56 Posts

January 16 2015 08:26 GMT

#1508

yes, its inoptimal play for breshke to not hammer me and claim towncred, thus avoiding the vig shot at night if I'm scum. Breshke's role as the roleblocker is very important, regardless of what I theoretically am if I'm scum.

Lian didn't carry out the kp at night according to SL. If we were to trust SL on that information (SL could be a team with lian), by PoE, we can narrow the 1 possible scum to mderg/eden/bats. (its still possible for lian to be mafia, just that he didn't carry out the kp)

HOWEVER, 1 other case exists, where SL claimed almost everything, from vet to tracker, as a ploy to fish out a CC. They have nailed the town rb, the vig have came out, so SL can claim whatever hell he wants if he is scum. If he is just a goon, having him dead for CC is still a good trade.

I'm deciding which scenario is more likely, and I think that its more likely that theres one scum in mderg/eden/bats.

Comparing these 3, I would lynch mderg> bats> eden.

Losing eden would mean town loses a direction and if eden was town, lynching him would end the game anyway. If he was scum though, then he must read his PM wrongly and helped town.

Bats was great in d1, but quickly descended to 'losing interest' by d3. Can't see much scum motivation to just fuck it and afk when scum just shot a pr.

mderg is the more likely candidate here. Most people have a scumteam consisting of mderg as well, so a lynch on mderg would have a higher chance to get scum at this scrappy game. If everyone thinks of the same thing, then they must have suspected it,, right?

mderg

Germany1739 Posts

January 16 2015 09:01 GMT

#1509

There's absolutely no way for town to win this game.

sicklucker

Canada16986 Posts

January 16 2015 10:35 GMT

#1510

so insightful mderg

mderg

Germany1739 Posts

January 16 2015 10:46 GMT

#1511

There's not much to gain from being insightful. I'm pretty much the lynch target for everyone and I'm town. So town almost certainly loses.

sicklucker

Canada16986 Posts

January 16 2015 11:41 GMT

#1512

Ok but if your town help us find the real mafia

sicklucker

Canada16986 Posts

January 16 2015 11:41 GMT

#1513

bitchin about it isint gonna win ya da game

batsnacks

United States4466 Posts

January 16 2015 15:08 GMT

#1514

On January 16 2015 19:46 mderg wrote:
There's not much to gain from being insightful. I'm pretty much the lynch target for everyone and I'm town. So town almost certainly loses.

So, who do we lynch if not you?

batsnacks

United States4466 Posts

January 16 2015 17:50 GMT

#1515

Okay here we go.

I'm voting Eden and I'm not switching. If anyone wants Eden lynched instead of mderg you have my support and you should utilize it.

##unvote
##vote: eden1892

Eden1892

United States5866 Posts

January 16 2015 18:44 GMT

#1516

mderg's defeatism feels town and I don't know what that means for the game state. The thing is that giving up in this spot is only 'optimal' (in the sense that it might advance the team's desired game state) if mderg is mafia - but you would expect him to put up some fight first. Even if he's caught caught end of story, mafia will instinctively at least try to fight it.

I'm back to wanting to kill liancourt instead. He's the guy I have a case for beyond POE, and I'm starting to get the feeling that POE isn't going to work anymore.

batsnacks, what happened to wanting to kill liancourt?

##UNVOTE
##VOTE: liancourt