New Years Eve Party Mini Mafia - Page 6
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 15 2015 07:52 liancourt wrote: u have not once directly called mderg mafia On January 15 2015 07:40 Eden1892 wrote: OK, this is actually a pretty good point. I guess it's not literally "mderg is mafia" but let it be known that my mafia team right now and as of that post was liancourt/mderg. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 15 2015 07:57 sicklucker wrote: I told you yesterday why dr was town but you choose to ignore me. Link it, EOD doesn't count 'cause I wasn't around for it. I agree Dr's last several posts were pretty town. (I said 15 mins earlier, that's probably not exact, it was while I was coming home from work during the last hour of d3) But I already acknowledged this, and I don't remember you saying anything about Dr being town prior to EOD | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 15 2015 08:04 liancourt wrote: the thing regarding my voting with oats and ls: I voted first, I didn't vote with my scum reads. I pushed VA then slept because deadline is 7 am and i cant wake up at deadline to push my lynches. regarding SL, lala, drp vote: I rnged because thread was dead. i voted lala because lala had absolutely no content whatsoever. Banged my vote on drp because drp's content wasnt good either. I didnt feel the need to explain all my actions because i really didnt give a damn about the game at that time because game was literally on life support and needed cpr. Was really uniterested in the game. My switch to drp at the end: So I could live and he didnt have any good content today either. I pushed my mderg lynch but nobody gave a hoot. I'm lynching eden tomorrow. Not going to move my vote. Ever. First one to 3 votes gets lynched. Team LS bats lian vs lala eden mderg lol that's cute. Pretty sure mderg is the kill tomorrow Then you | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I guess I missed that post? I don't follow the importance with respect to the original discussion you quoted, since that discussion centered on my alleged apathy regarding which of lian/DrP was lynched, which is so self-evidently false as to make the accusation defy explanation. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 16 2015 10:48 sicklucker wrote: So i checked lian so there would be no doubt on him so we can just kill mderg/eden and maybe consider bats at some point. If lian was mafia I felt he was most likely to deliver kp for his team because I dont suspect him. So now we should put that world out of are head. Mafia didnt kill me so expect an obvious cc from a fake cop or something? I donno I'm not so sure about this. Remember, during the night you more or less proved mderg is mafia by POE (assuming batsnacks is town). Think about the perspective of a liancourt/mderg team here; they know mderg is dead to rights. He's the guy that they would have perform the kill. Not liancourt. They would need liancourt to be as clean as can be going into 4p MYLO to try to win the game. Likewise, if mderg and I were a team, our only shot at winning is sac'ing mderg today and hoping I can argue my way out of 4p MYLO. mderg would be the one to perform the kill, not me. I still think it's liancourt/mderg. Look at liancourt's vote, it's on me instead of the virtually guaranteed mafia. How good of a play would it be if liancourt rode the suspicion of me/mderg as a team to get me mislynched at MYLO and win with mderg? I think this is really suspicious because he should be killing the highest-% target today, which is mderg, no matter who you think his partner is. I'll give batsnacks a reread between now and the start of the next day for completion's sake but I suspect it's going to be liancourt and me thunderdoming tomorrow. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 16 2015 10:44 sicklucker wrote: you. you didnt travel. So lets not kill you. Wtf why didnt mafia kill me? I must be right and there tooo afraid who died didnt look yet Also they didn't kill you because you're wrong about me. If this were LYLO we would already have lost. That was easy. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 16 2015 12:10 sicklucker wrote: Checking my scum reads is kind of pointless because im going to vote them anyway. There also gonna be too afraid to use kp and if theres a mafia in bats or loli they will always be the one delivering the kp. Bats is playing dumb about not knowing about how scum has to pick a player to deliver kp so hes probably town. Like im going to kill eden and mderg anyway so why waste a check on them? Id rather eliminate worlds where im wrong. Also in the event im somehow alive I expect mafia to put doubt on my claim anyway. I didn't say you should have checked someone else; what I said is that unless mafia derped, there wasn't going to be any information achieved from it. Let me walk you through it again. mderg is dead to rights, yes? You proved he was mafia by POE last night. You think I'm his partner, and I agreed with you. Pretty sure everyone else agrees with you. A mafia team facing this situation isn't going to have anyone but the guy going down today sending out the kill. Like I said, if I were on mderg's team, I would never ever ever be doing the kill because I know you're checking me and my only hope of winning is not getting tracked to a body. Nor would liancourt if the team is liancourt/mderg. Nor would any other partner with mderg. The fact that they didn't kill you means two things: (1) They weren't afraid of your check. That very likely means the caught mafia sent in the kill. (2) They weren't afraid of your reads. That very likely means you're wrong about the other mafia. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 16 2015 12:13 sicklucker wrote: Well who cares im voting mderg? Hes lians partner remember? We kill mderg hes mafia. Then ill check you tonight if mafias dumb enough to leave me alive and I can confirm your alignment what do you have to be scared of? And if they kill me you can convince whoever else is alive to vote someone else Definitely check me tonight, but you have to recognize that you're almost certainly not going to be alive tomorrow, and so I can't just bank on you being around to confirm me town. I'm still going to work to convince you and everyone else that I'm town, and work to get liancourt lynched tomorrow. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 16 2015 12:34 sicklucker wrote: Eden why am I still alive tho? If its lians mafia plan to afk vote you and go for the win. Wheres the mafia motivation in risking keeping me in the game and finding mafia? Who did ls say he was going to vote for? It was you right? Let me explain my thoughts. Whoever mafia is is keeping the option of a counter claim open. Thats the only reason I can be alive. If lian wants to afk as mafia it cant be him. Unless hes just lying about that. I'm not really sure why they shot LS. There are obvious reasons - he's confirmed town, he didn't have clear reads afaik so shooting him is information denial - but they seem obviously less important than killing an un-cc'd tracker. The thing is, I feel like cc'ing you is a terrible plan if that's what they're doing. mderg can't do it because he's caught, and coming out at MYLO with a cc instead of contesting it while there were MLs to burn is unbelievably shitty play for a PR (read: would never be believed coming from mafia). It just seems like if that's what they're doing, they're screwing themselves over. Literally the only thing that makes sense to me with what I know is that they wanted you to spend another day yelling at people to kill me so I can get mislynched at 4p. Because I can tell you for sure that if I'm mafia and you're right about me, I'm never leaving you alive as a claimed tracker | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I guess now would be a good time to reread batsnacks. I feel like we can throw out lalalipop because of Breshke's play + the fact that Breshke was the roleblocker. If you look at the possible mafia roles in the OP and the town roles we now know we have, the only mafia role that has actual utility this game is the roleblocker. The godfather and framer don't matter without a cop. That means Breshke was almost certainly not involved in any kind of shenanigans to save lalalipop, because it would have been better to sacrifice lalalipop and have Breshke bus for towncred. Honestly we're back to where we were a day or so ago, if you believe batsnacks is town then mderg is auto-mafia and you have me and liancourt thunderdome at 4p MYLO. If you think batsnacks is mafia, the picture becomes a lot murkier. Three possible pairs FMPOV are: lian/mderg - Talked at length about this, lian is the guy on which I have the best case I think, mderg is auto if you think batsnacks is town. I've been assuming bats is town, I'll reread to confirm. lian/bats - Would actually be a great play. They leave SL alive figuring he'll get people to mislynch mderg thinking it's auto. Would also explain lian dropping a vote on me and bouncing. mderg/bats - I guess it's possible but if lian isn't mafia I'll shit bricks. Now I wanna switch to liancourt. But I felt like batsnacks was pretty townie when we were talking a couple days ago itt. If I reread batsnacks and come back finding him to be not clearly mafia then I'll just stay on mderg for the high-% play, if batsnacks is in doubt then I feel like I have to kill liancourt since he's the guy on which I actually have a case besides POE. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I'm back to wanting to kill liancourt instead. He's the guy I have a case for beyond POE, and I'm starting to get the feeling that POE isn't going to work anymore. batsnacks, what happened to wanting to kill liancourt? ##UNVOTE ##VOTE: liancourt | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Never mind you had lian as town. Who's your team then? | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
How am I "not trying"? I think I put in more work to figure out what's going on than anyone else today. If you view yourself as the one who tried the hardest, then even still I'm second. That's silly and you know better. I'm on liancourt and probably staying there. I'm undecided on batsnacks vs mderg for the other mafia so I'm going to vote my top suspect. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 10 2015 15:45 Eden1892 wrote: First thought is LOL at trying to do vca on this. Two wagons, one town, the other unknown, clear majority, only outlier vote is confirmed town b/c she was shot right afterward. No layups ![]() In situations like these where the main wagon is town and we don't know the other wagon, we first want to look at the rationale people gave for their votes. The first person I notice is myself, because I didn't give any, because I'm a donkey and I slept through EOD and only managed to slap a fast vote down to avoid mod sanction. No johns, I suck, sorry guys. Instead I'm going to look at the other people who coasted on the lead wagon. First is liancourt. Most of his d1 posting by far is pushing LightningStrike, then ObiWanShinobi. Then he ends up voting with both on VayneAuthority, because VA wasn't trying d1. This is an odd sequence of events to me because (1) I don't think that's the strongest case to be made on VA and (2) liancourt claims to have only given up on pushing LS and Obi because the pushes weren't getting traction, which should mean he didn't stop suspecting them, and yet he ends up voting for the same guy as them. I know that even if I had failed to convince people to kill my suspects, two of them voting together on someone would have given me a great deal of pause. liancourt just lets the kill happen. Second is Oatsmaster, his case on Vayne is also not the correct case IMO. It's weird that it's the opposite of liancourt's, and that in the course of discussing this read neither one of them ended up arguing with the other about it. I guess maybe he didn't have to push as hard because Vayne became the lynch fairly quick, but it seems like he pretty much parked his vote and left. === Other notes: - sicklucker and LightningStrike are probably town, they've both been pretty active and have pushed their lynch hard. I don't think either of the cases they made on their targets d1 were actually good, but I think they were genuine, which is all I need to see to make a read. - Half the Sky looks reasonably good to me as well. The one thing irking me a bit is that she read me as town for making a "detailed case" on Vayne when I don't remember ever doing so, but it's obvious she cares about the direction of the game. Her interaction with sicklucker about the past game seems sincere enough - I know it's not directly relevant to this game, but I think the entire conversation reads town, go open her filter and find that bit and read for yourselves so you can see what I mean - and she's been rather open with her thoughts. - batsnacks is sorta vulnerable to the same logic that implicates liancourt, but batsnacks still pushed reasonably hard on Obi while voting Vayne and tried to get a last-minute vote on Obi instead of Vayne. This strikes me as more of what I'd expect a townie to do if his primary suspect were off the table: go after a secondary one while taking his chances at getting the primary suspect killed instead. I also think he's been a lot more forthright and sincere than liancourt, so I find myself okay with batsnacks, even though to some extent he does the same thing that liancourt does. - Obi already called out liancourt for the big thing I noticed earlier, so he's town in my mind for now. Obi does end up criticizing the VA lynch while staying on it, but if you read his filter it seems fairly clear that he got caught with insufficient time to figure out anything else to do due to out-of-game constraints. It's not like he peaced out from the thread and coasted. I can give him a pass on that. === That's all I feel like doing right now, I'll do more later on but this seems good enough to start with. Town: me, Obi, HTS, SL, LS, bats Mafia: Oats, lian TBD: Breshke, lollipop, derg, Doc On January 13 2015 17:48 Eden1892 wrote: So like I said before, back on day 1 liancourt pushed LS and Obi then voted with them on Vayne. Quoting my post on the subject from n1: liancourt never had a satisfactory reply to this, which I think is pretty damning on its own. It's even more damning when we look at the Day 2 vote count. Presuming for the moment that lalalipop is town, we have two town wagons at the end of d2, and liancourt is... voting for DrParnassus. Who he literally discusses once in d2 (calls DrP unmemorable). I'm serious, read his filter, that's it. He doesn't even say he voted for DrP. He said he was going to RNG vote sicklucker, and I'm not sure if that was a joke or something he intended to do but didn't, because he doesn't say anything else about his suspects that day. He certainly doesn't push DrP. He just wastes his vote on an outlier for a reason that sounds good, but instead of pushing that good reason to get a lynch he just... does nothing. ##VOTE: liancourt | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 18 2015 04:54 sicklucker wrote: Oh I agree your second. That doesint mean your town. I have higher standards from you I have no idea what would make me town to you at this point then. Your apparent argument is that I'm mafia because I'm not trying, then you acknowledge I've been trying the hardest of everyone not named you in this game. C'mon man. | ||
Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
sicklucker, you're sure you won't switch to liancourt? We're running low on time and he's the only guy I feel confident in. You asked for my case - again - and then afk'd without addressing it. batsnacks? lalalipop? somebody? please help. I'm getting a terrible feeling it's not mderg, but I don't know who else it would be. I just feel sure it's liancourt so somebody move? please? | ||
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