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Good point, I agree. That leaves:
Half the Sky
Oatsmaster
liancourt
DrParnassus
lalalipop
VayneAuthority
mderg
I felt like lynching liancourt but I can't tell how much of that was kneejerk reaction to him being a jerk. Oatsmaster is probably the best kill out of the people I can remember from that list, pretty sure he's done nothing but take issue with how bunnies is trying to get her reads (which early in d1 is kind of a dumb thing to complain about IMO, you do what you have to do d1 to get something going). Everyone else isn't memorable, mderg and HTS are the only ones of the 5 I even remember seeing post.
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On January 08 2015 06:35 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 06:27 Eden1892 wrote:
I'm okay with him b/c I'm making a lazy meta read where he's more invested in this game than he was in Imperial. (He was vt in Imperial and his apathy d1 got him lynched, so it seems like he's aiming to avoid that mistake.) If anyone has mafia priors on him and can comment then feel free. I actually have a problem with this read. I don't see why he wouldn't do this as either alignment so I don't know how it could affect your opinion of him.
Huh. Yeah, true, I guess he would either way.
Idk, he just seems like he's trying to be more helpful than he was in Imperial, and he was town in Imperial, so I had him as town again. (Hence the bit about mafia priors; unless he's known for trying harder as mafia than as town, it seems like him trying harder in this game than another one where he flipped town should = town.)
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On January 08 2015 07:01 Breshke wrote:
Eden why aren't I on either of your lists?
i forgot about you LOL
you're not in the not-kill pile. srrynotsrry
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he's not
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/kpfRsP1.gif)
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Weird cause I don't want to lynch you either.
Time heals all wounds~
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I had to go look at the player list to remember who that was :o Apparently Vayne didn't leave much of an impression.
Reading filter I can see why; not much said, even less of interest. One thought though.
Vayne: Why do you think that liancourt was intentionally distorting what LightningStrike was saying? This idea seems to follow from the notion that liancourt is mafia for his post attacking LightningStrike, but you don't explain where you think it's intentional.
This is, of course, an important distinction; liancourt is being a bit of an ass, and for whatever reason that's considered townie on TL, so it's important to distinguish between "hardheaded jerk townie misrepresenting things out of a genuine conviction of the target's guilt" and "mafia distorting a townie's words to make them a viable mislynch."
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On January 08 2015 14:33 VayneAuthority wrote:
I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other but you extort somone's post to make them look scummy or discredit them. It seems he opted to do both there. I don't follow on what you mean by intentional, as making a post on it pretty much makes it intentional by definition.
liancourt posted the beginnings of a case on LightningStrike. In it, he interpreted LightningStrike's various comments a certain way. That way makes LightningStrike look bad, and may or may not be an accurate way of interpreting the comments.
There are multiple layers to the last sentence: is liancourt accurately interpreting LightningStrike's comments or not, and if not, is this inaccuracy intentional? Your statement that liancourt is scummy for trying to distort LightningStrike's intentions presupposed not only inaccuracy but intentional inaccuracy. I'm asking you to demonstrate how, because while I can believe liancourt's interpretation is inaccurate, I'm not sold it's intentional. Town and mafia both make inaccurate interpretations of others' posts, so you're going to have to demonstrate intent to make your case, and again, on a read of liancourt's post I don't necessarily see it.
On January 08 2015 14:33 VayneAuthority wrote:
Still figuring out the second part, I don't really give a shit if we lynch town on day 1 its not a big deal.
uh, explain this please.
Believe it or not I think I have a reasonable explanation of this^ comment, but I'm not supplying it for Vayne until he gives his own answer.
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which statistics? tbh that's pretty hard to believe based on my past experience.
There are other issues with that post but I'll leave it for a moment.
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On January 08 2015 21:27 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 21:22 liancourt wrote:
Dunno sl has been playing crappy as usual confusing the fuck out of town. His incoherent posting is out of this world It's different this game. He's less sincere about his incoherent ideas. They are forced.
Different this game compared to which? I didn't see a significant change from Imperial.
And are you saying sicklucker is the kill? I think Vayne is probably the kill for reasons I'll explain in a bit. If you want sicklucker instead you're gonna have to sell me on it.
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Lol my sleep schedule is SO fucked.
I'm planning to kill VA as of now, because VA seemed just serious enough to be playing the game while still being pretty apathetic about the actual outcome. Meant to say this hours ago but I fell asleep.
vote VA (real vote in vote thread)
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On January 09 2015 10:05 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I spent the majority of today posting at work via phone.
How is that even lazy.
How do you even.
Plot twist: he's your manager and talking about your work ethic on the job
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the normal sleep schedule is officially dead. long live the normal sleep schedule
Upshot of having done jack-all so far is that no one in their right minds will nightkill me, so I can catch up after the night flips and do a vca/etc. with one more flip. Since I got work around EOD that's what I'll be doing, see you guys around 11:30 CST
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On January 10 2015 07:44 Damdred wrote:
ninjabunnies she was the office slit
Harsh
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On January 10 2015 14:58 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I'm off work but I've got stuff to do tomorrow.
Couple of thoughts:
Eden is posting the absolute bare minimum to get by and really shouldn't be allowed to do so, especially when he's so hyperactive and headstrong as town.
I'm not sure how I feel about batsnacks and lian atm. I'm sure personal preference might have colored my reads so I'm going to let those thoughts do their own thing for a little while.
I might come back with more reads tonight but I probably won't. I'll be around intermittently until tomorrow night when I can sit down and do things.
baw hush i am literally typing a post rn :D
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On January 09 2015 08:04 Trfel wrote:Final Vote Count Day 1 LightningStrike (0): liancourtsicklucker (0): Eden1892, Breshkeliancourt (0): mdergVayneAuthority (8): liancourt, Half the Sky, Oatsmaster, LightningStrike, batsnacks, ObiWanShinobi, Breshke, lalipop, Eden1892 Oatsmaster (1): 27ninjabunnies Half the Sky (3): mderg, sicklucker, DrParnassus, lalipop 27ninjabunnies (0): DrParnassus, DrParnassusCurrently, VayneAuthority is set to be lynched with 5 votes.
until deadline.
First thought is LOL at trying to do vca on this. Two wagons, one town, the other unknown, clear majority, only outlier vote is confirmed town b/c she was shot right afterward. No layups 
In situations like these where the main wagon is town and we don't know the other wagon, we first want to look at the rationale people gave for their votes. The first person I notice is myself, because I didn't give any, because I'm a donkey and I slept through EOD and only managed to slap a fast vote down to avoid mod sanction. No johns, I suck, sorry guys.
Instead I'm going to look at the other people who coasted on the lead wagon.
First is liancourt. Most of his d1 posting by far is pushing LightningStrike, then ObiWanShinobi. Then he ends up voting with both on VayneAuthority, because VA wasn't trying d1. This is an odd sequence of events to me because (1) I don't think that's the strongest case to be made on VA and (2) liancourt claims to have only given up on pushing LS and Obi because the pushes weren't getting traction, which should mean he didn't stop suspecting them, and yet he ends up voting for the same guy as them. I know that even if I had failed to convince people to kill my suspects, two of them voting together on someone would have given me a great deal of pause. liancourt just lets the kill happen.
Second is Oatsmaster, his case on Vayne is also not the correct case IMO. It's weird that it's the opposite of liancourt's, and that in the course of discussing this read neither one of them ended up arguing with the other about it. I guess maybe he didn't have to push as hard because Vayne became the lynch fairly quick, but it seems like he pretty much parked his vote and left.
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Other notes:
- sicklucker and LightningStrike are probably town, they've both been pretty active and have pushed their lynch hard. I don't think either of the cases they made on their targets d1 were actually good, but I think they were genuine, which is all I need to see to make a read.
- Half the Sky looks reasonably good to me as well. The one thing irking me a bit is that she read me as town for making a "detailed case" on Vayne when I don't remember ever doing so, but it's obvious she cares about the direction of the game. Her interaction with sicklucker about the past game seems sincere enough - I know it's not directly relevant to this game, but I think the entire conversation reads town, go open her filter and find that bit and read for yourselves so you can see what I mean - and she's been rather open with her thoughts.
- batsnacks is sorta vulnerable to the same logic that implicates liancourt, but batsnacks still pushed reasonably hard on Obi while voting Vayne and tried to get a last-minute vote on Obi instead of Vayne. This strikes me as more of what I'd expect a townie to do if his primary suspect were off the table: go after a secondary one while taking his chances at getting the primary suspect killed instead. I also think he's been a lot more forthright and sincere than liancourt, so I find myself okay with batsnacks, even though to some extent he does the same thing that liancourt does.
- Obi already called out liancourt for the big thing I noticed earlier, so he's town in my mind for now. Obi does end up criticizing the VA lynch while staying on it, but if you read his filter it seems fairly clear that he got caught with insufficient time to figure out anything else to do due to out-of-game constraints. It's not like he peaced out from the thread and coasted. I can give him a pass on that.
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That's all I feel like doing right now, I'll do more later on but this seems good enough to start with.
Town: me, Obi, HTS, SL, LS, bats
Mafia: Oats, lian
TBD: Breshke, lollipop, derg, Doc
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That question is incorrect on multiple levels. First, to credit either of you with the descriptor "push" is to credit you both too much. You're on my suspects list precisely because you didn't push the Vayne lynch. You coasted.
Additionally, if I'm right and HTS and VA were both town, mafia has no reason to push any particular lynch. They just want to cook up something plausible-sounding to get on the board and get a vote down. If their reasoning is contradictory, so much the better, it's harder to trace them to each other.
And finally, even if the objection made sense and you couldn't be liancourt's partner, I don't really care. I analyzed you both as individuals and found you suspicious. The observation that neither of you argued with one another despite having contradictory reasoning doesn't tie you two together as partners, but it is suspicious of both of you individually. I'm going to kill individuals on their own demerits and not care about partners unless I see something more compelling, because "X and Y can't be partners because of ABC" is so easy to game in my experience (and one of my main weaknesses in my analyses as town) that it's not worth considering on its own.
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On January 10 2015 16:16 liancourt wrote:The amount of defense on LS and obi is overwhelming. Even if it's mafia defending town it'll mean they're town and mafia wouldn't defend their own this hard so I'll reluctantly ignore them for now. Eden is prolly town for trying to at least figure out the game when the thread was in stalemate. Although I don't think oats is playing greatly like the aggressive town player he is there are others who are very unmemorable for example, drparnassus and breshke or even lala. i'll look into one of these 3 later
How's the defending of LS/obi "overwhelming" if the thread is "in stalemate"...? Seems like a stalled out thread would be more receptive to a push on your suspects, not less.
And what's with the soft defense of Oats? You appear to use meta as a primary tool of evaluating people, yet you're disregarding what your analysis of the meta is apparently telling you. Instead you're scumreading my nulls for being unmemorable. Do you have any actual reason why they're mafia?
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On January 10 2015 18:15 liancourt wrote:
Yes thats pretty much what i did. And look i got u to post something defensive
I'm in your town pile and agree with him. Please consider
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On January 11 2015 07:28 LightningStrike wrote:
I sorry I forgot to say I was going to play a in a Yugioh Tournament today T_T Anyone here want to talk?
Yeah, we need to talk sson.
Drop that shit like the bad habit it is and play MTG.
Serious posting will come after work, I got told off by my boss today for trying to sneak a peek at TL so no more work-lurk for me
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Lol I'm not about to, no more worklurk
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EPT
