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On January 09 2015 07:41 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:29 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel? Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target. I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy. Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\ Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am. I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation? You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3. Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though. I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches. I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip. You literally don't have a 2nd scum read? Not one as strong as the one I now have on LS. Before LS my D2 preferred lynch was likely to be Shining based on a bunch of stuff from D1, largely because jarjar had redeemed himself post-flip. The problem I'm having now is that your earlier posts coupled with reviewing the voting pattern has got me convinced that only one of Shining/LS is scum. So I'm having a great deal of trouble matching up those two contradictory things (the read on Shining coupled with the stronger read on LS). What are your current thoughts on any potential LS/Shining partnership or have you ruled it out by now?
They are both town. In no world I see Trfel dying if there is 1 or more mafia in LS or Shining.
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On January 09 2015 07:45 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:43 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:41 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:29 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:25 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:17 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:13 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:08 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 07:06 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:04 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial why do you think mafia NKed trfel? Just a sec I'm writing up a complete filter dive on LS because tube wanted a full analysis from me on my best target. I was actually hoping you'd go after a more difficult target. The LS case is pretty much closed. I'm the only one defending him, and I have nothing but a tinfoil hat conspiracy. Ugh...I've just spent like half an hour on this so far and he's by far my best read after the shenanigans on the other page. You don't want it? :-\ Well, I thought I made it clear. I think any case on LS now is a waste. The case on him, and his behavior is strong enough for all 9 of us to be on him. Shit, If I were Lightning I'd vote myself for how bad I am. I mean there is literally 0 people towning him. I even said I'm probably ragevoting him. That means there better be 1 wagon with everyone on LS. Why build a case in this situation? You're next I thought was Jarjar. Go after someone who we can go after D3. Alright if we're so certain about the LS wagon for D2 I'll scrap this dive and have a look at someone else. I'll keep it in a word document in case we need it again though. I'm going to need to work this out though before I can give you one. jarjar I didn't like primarily off the back of his D1 stuff, which I felt was largely useless and poorly thought out. His attitude post-flip though has been a LOT better and frankly I've not really been thinking ahead to the D3 lynch yet because we still have more than 24 hours of this to go, plus the full night to start thinking about D3 lynches. I've got a reasonable feeling about Shining, but that might just be a hangover from D1. And I still don't like rsoultin's actions but I'm not sure if I can condemn because whatever I say about words vs actions her explanations seem to ring somewhat true. I've already mentioned my concerns about rsoultin earlier though when we were questioning each other after the D1 EoD flip. You literally don't have a 2nd scum read? Not one as strong as the one I now have on LS. Before LS my D2 preferred lynch was likely to be Shining based on a bunch of stuff from D1, largely because jarjar had redeemed himself post-flip. The problem I'm having now is that your earlier posts coupled with reviewing the voting pattern has got me convinced that only one of Shining/LS is scum. So I'm having a great deal of trouble matching up those two contradictory things (the read on Shining coupled with the stronger read on LS). What are your current thoughts on any potential LS/Shining partnership or have you ruled it out by now? They are both town. In no world I see Trfel dying if there is 1 or more mafia in LS or Shining. Walk me through this. Why wouldn't trfel die if just LS is mafia?
I think unless all 3 top town read players are mafia (Celestial, Exo, Rsoultin, HTS, and I) the leading candidates would be Celest, ExO, Rsoultin or HTS. I can see thinking the doc save if available would go to Celestial as he was the one most universally towned by literally everyone and probably Rsoultin. Wouldn't you think that you ExO or HTS would be dead?
You had good thread presence but not as active as Rsoultin I didn't think and not as universally read as Celestial. HTS same thing really, she makes really good posts but it's really only 4-5 every 1/2 day period.
Trfel just seems like a bad target to kill. He had 0 reads, he was talking about how he couldn't feel this game.
If there was 1 mafia on the lynch, then it's smarter to kill one of the ones with an opinion (framing the non mafia perhaps) and then mafia can "guide" town to killing the townie.
At least one of the strong players has to be mafia. I think it's celestial. He could certainly guide town to a mlynch and protect his scum partner if there was one.
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On January 09 2015 07:50 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:21 Tubesock wrote:
I feel like any more evidence on LS is like going to the doctor when you're pregnant, getting a blood test, then going to two more doctors to really make sure you're pregnant.
You've said my tinfoil hat theory is probably not right. You're saying it implicitly by spending 30 minutes on a case on LS. I'm the ONLY one defending him. Why pick LS for a case? + Show Spoiler +
I just picked it because its my strongest read after I called him out a couple of pages back. I thought you were just after a clear and concise read on someone I'm scumreading. Doesn't matter, I'll look into one of the others detailed above.
I honestly don't think your theory is totally out of it. BUT I would say that I don't find it too likely. Lots of people have been getting scum reads on each of Shining and LS.
As I understand it your argument is that unless they're BOTH mafia then the Trfel kill makes no sense, right? My counter to that would be that you yourself said that Trfel is a good player, correct? And he's played before? This would seem to imply either the mafia team has someone who has at least observed Trfel played before, but that could be anyone so its not really helpful. In any case the point is that you've identified him as a strong player; and I'm sure other experienced mafia players will have done the same. + Show Spoiler +
However Trfel has also been inactive and fairly quiet for a couple of days but one of the things he DID say was that he didn't like any of the three lynches, but by the posting of other people was leaning towards the best lynch being Shining. Towards the end he was focused on the fact he didn't like the WW lynch but that's not really indicative of anything at all. However before that he was fairly clear that he didn't like any of them too much.
In this situation I think its just the simplest explanation possible, which I've mentioned before. You say he's a known strong player. He was fairly quiet but mentioned he'd try to get more active later on. The inactivity meant little chance of a doc save and because he didn't really like any of the lynches it'd cast doubt over all of the wagons. The kill is pure disruption to make us doubt the two wagons that didn't go through as well as potentially eliminate a threat that could come later if he became more active. A more obvious kill would likely give us more to go on.
My point is that I don't think it was obvious enough that he was towning the three. If I'm mafia, I'd cling to the fact that he voted The Shining so how could that be a town read? His reads were pretty null at best. I am the one who spilled the he townread these guys, I wasn't patient enough to ask people what they thought of his reads on shining or LS. I should have, as I think most people probably thought they were null if they thought about it at all.
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On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is?
That's exactly who I am pushing now.  Yes, it's the only time he spoke of this person. And the scummiest thing he said about anyone.
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On January 09 2015 08:04 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
If there was 1 mafia on the lynch, then it's smarter to kill one of the ones with an opinion (framing the non mafia perhaps) and then mafia can "guide" town to killing the townie. I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?
Don't worry about it. You're mafia. The answer is in your QT.
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On January 09 2015 08:04 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
If there was 1 mafia on the lynch, then it's smarter to kill one of the ones with an opinion (framing the non mafia perhaps) and then mafia can "guide" town to killing the townie. I can't really follow this train of thought. You're saying that if one of the mafia were up for lynch you'd want to NK one of those pushing the mafia lynch, despite it being incredibly obvious? Surely that's just hoping that someone will start to WIFOM the NK on the basis that its so obvious that it can't possibly be that simple?
I'd nk the one with the best case on the town. Hell several of the highly towned people scummed both LS and Shining. It wouldn't implicate either one.
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I think ExO's and Rsoultins reads/cases questioning whatever you want to call it is spot on. It helped me believe my tinfoil hat theory. And Celestial is literally the only person Trfel was like wtf about.
In the meantime, Celestial hasn't pushed anyone even when asked for 5 hours. When he does, he makes it on the easiest possible target in the game.
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Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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On January 09 2015 08:17 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:05 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 08:03 ExO_ wrote:On January 09 2015 07:51 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 07:43 ExO_ wrote:
@Celestial
Why do you think mafia nked trfel? Does the above answer your question? In short: main reason being disruption. Because it makes us doubt the three people up for vote on D1 because he didn't much like any of the targets. It did to a degree. Let me ask you another question. Trfel said he didn't like any of the lynches. Having reread his filter a couple times, I found something to be odd. Before the it became apparent that WW or LS or Shining was likely to die, there was only one person whoose opening post he specifically mentions as being off. He never got to really expand on it, but can you guess who it is? That's exactly who I am pushing now. Yes, it's the only time he spoke of this person. And the scummiest thing he said about anyone. Bit rich considering that the post was this: Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 06:24 Trfel wrote:
Also, I really don't like -Celestial-'s opening post. Most of the points made feel wrong to me. I don't scumread him for it, but I am rather surprised by the amount of other people who agreed with it. And that his very last comments on anyone were actually him starting to filter-dive you to look for indicators: Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 07:38 Trfel wrote:
Looking into Tubesock now, I will keep checking for thoughts, especially the response to my thoughts on TheWarWaffle. Show nested quote +On January 07 2015 08:00 Trfel wrote:On January 07 2015 07:57 Tubesock wrote:
I'm also assuming you are building a case on me right? No, I'm reading your filter and trying to decide if you are town or scum. There is a big difference.
Agreed. Yet, no one has a case on me. No one even questioned my motives and I KILLED A CLAIMED BLUE!!!!!
If you people didn't filter me and look for shit, then I call all of you idiots.
Come at me. Let's dance.
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On January 09 2015 05:34 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 05:28 ExO_ wrote:On January 09 2015 05:11 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 04:59 ExO_ wrote:On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote:
If you actually check my posts you'd see I was already calling LS out with my original set of reads BEFORE you posted something to really set me off on that path; so no, it wasn't just you.
This is a lie Celestial. Saying he's posting fluff and then giving him town credit is not calling him out. You didn't say anything significant against him until I made my big post. This isn't altering the timeline of events, nor is it misquoting you. It's trying to get credit for FoSing someone you didn't. I'm not letting you slip by with that. Do I seriously have to spell this out? Ok THIS was the first thing I posted on LS: LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly. Translation: I'm weirded out by his posting. Whilst I was writing that he posted something which changed my mind somewhat, leading me to edit with this: Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now. To explicitly spell this out: I didn't like his early junk and pointed it out as being weird, then he posted a good post which made me lean away from suspicion somewhat. No, I didn't post anything "significant" against him because I didn't HAVE anything significant. What I HAD was doubt, which I highlighted in my first post before he posted something that made me less inclined to believe in that doubt, but it did not eliminate it which is why I explicitly said he was a null read rather than leaning town. I notice you're no longer commenting on the later parts of this story. Is that because the stuff you're making up no longer fits then? Again, why are you twisting what happened to make up a story? You appear to be wanting to try to make my reads a lot more extreme than they were. The only lies here are a result of your creative interpreting. I don't know what to say. I don't think saying he was posting fluff is expressing any significant amount of doubt. This means that you were not suspicious of him, and didn't really express it until after I did. You backed off of LS after I left the thread for a while, and didn't get back on to him until 6 posts and 12 minutes after I showed that his current playstyle (everybody's town) matched what he did in a mafia game. Regardless whether or not you used my reasoning or your own, this is the timeline that happened. Two times after I went after LS, you followed it up. You claim the 2nd time was for different reasoning. Okay, I could see that. But then I'm asking myself, why would you lie about the initial suspicion? I don't think your first post demonstrated suspicion of LS at all. I'm significantly more convinced LS is scum than you. But I think you did lie, or at least heavily overrepresented your initial suspicion of LS. To -Celestial-: Lies and such aside. I think part of ExO's point is you haven't really stuck your neck out for any read. I'd love to see you cash in some of this town cred you have and really force-ably push a case. You have to have more than 1 scum read. LS is an easy lynch. Building a case on him is a waste of time and shows no risk. You decided to stay off a main wagon and park on JarJar. Build your case. He's pretty scummy.
Ahem. And this is AFTER I said I'd ragevote LightningStrike....
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On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?
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On January 09 2015 08:34 Half the Sky wrote:
EBWOP - ALSO adding to the potential variability in NKs is the fact that this game is an open setup. I forgot that point.
I do agree with that. And it's why I was waffling and asking for way more input.
On Night 1, I would think it's better to shoot a strong target than trying to blue hunt. Day 1 has literally no evidence, and it's not like anyone would breadcrumb, it's just guessing who is blue by ruling out the bleediest towns. You haven't posted much, Silverarte, gumdrops haven't posted much, why not shoot you or them if mafia knows they are town if they are blue hunting?
It's WIFOM I agree. I think the odds are better that they went for the Trfel as the only towny that was basically on the right track.
What do you think of Celestial now? I don't think the case on him really has anything to do with my tinfoil hat theory. That theory really is only concerning LS and Shining.
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HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance.
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On January 09 2015 08:55 Half the Sky wrote:
Tube, people can breadcrumb their roles by accident.
It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2.
The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands.
I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open.
As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him.
Ok, I hear you. I won't hinder any LS/Shining wagon. I will push the Celestial one though.
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On January 09 2015 09:04 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:47 Tubesock wrote:
HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance. This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc. And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them. Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason.
Thank you. This is the stuff I need to hear, otherwise I just go deeper and deeper in the hole.
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On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches.
On page 40 HTS explains why my tinfoil hat theory really can't be used. It's spot on.
HTS won the game for town hands down in Carol. Rsoultin had very logical posts and people respected (haha we thought she was a he then) her opinion.
Trfel, stopped EoD (End of Day) shenanigans with a pretty good case on Kelsier, and got us to switch to him and lynch mafia.
This is my second game.
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On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches.
Also, you really need to start bleeding town.
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On January 09 2015 09:30 rsoultin wrote:
...you know, regardless as to whether you guys actually believe that I work until 6pm CST, you should at least not be surprised when I'm not in the thread during my stated work hours. ^^
Accusing me of lurking is kind of amusing.
If anyone has questions/comments (yes, I have read the debating back and forth) I will be watching the thread, but I want to actually take the time to look at things and think them over without interference. Tomorrow we have a going-away in the afternoon, so with any luck I'll actually be here at EoD this time.
However, since I can't be sure about making EoD, I want to take the time to really look at people (so many nullish/scummy reads right now ><) and figure out the best one(s) to put up for lynch/vote on.
You were asking for me yesterday. I'm here if you have questions.
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On January 09 2015 09:31 jarjarbinks wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 09:26 Tubesock wrote:On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches. Also, you really need to start bleeding town. I think people will see my as scum until I die. Honestly trying super hard after Exo blew up on me day 1.
that unfortunately is a risk (SORRY WARWAFFLE!!!). But some advice from a terrible newby.
I was on the wagon for D2 in Carol. I think I led the day early on too. I decided to bleed myself to death. I came up with some cracked out tin foil magic unicorn hat stuff. I relentlessly attacked and pushed my mostly incorrect reads and in a very bizarre and rude way. Eventually, people realized I didn't fear death and we were able to kill one of my scums that day. Although Trfel gets the credit for it as he was the deciding factor for people to move to that wagon.
I see a worlds where you are either or. If you are town, then it shouldn't be too tough to bleed it.
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On January 09 2015 09:44 rsoultin wrote:Okay. To be clear, Tube my friend, you are not really a town-read for me right now  You seem to think you're getting a pass just cause I'm not questioning you. That you appeared to be heavily tunneled is undeniable, and that would be the answer to any question I asked you. Thus I see no point in questioning why you were voting WW. That said, your participation today, and really throughout the game, does seem towny to me at first glance. Your "tinfoil hat" theory is a possible one, though HTS is right that it is just one of several possibilities. Mostly I just wanted to know what happened to you, since you were participating so much earlier but then seemed to not care to. Your posting today debunks that though.
I'll answer any question you have. I'm doing my best to be as transparent as possible. I'm feeling left out that not many people are asking me stuff.
I was on my weekly date night last night.
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EPT
