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Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 20:11 GMT
#411
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote:
HTS, I know you're waiting on some responses to your questions from others, but do you have a D1 lynch list?

I'm starting to get worried that with such little activity, and so many who still need to vote, that people are going to be doing bullshit shenanies at EoD.

Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle?


I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too.


@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it.


Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not.

Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others.


If he hardclaims, are you going to ignore it?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 20:17 GMT
#414
On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:
My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy.
+ Show Spoiler +

After reading the thread my current reads for the game are as follows:

The Shining: Town

The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.

Half the Sky: Town

HTS acts like a true townie. Says what she wants, when she wants to, to whomever she wants. At least, that's what she wants us to believe, but I don't have anything better at this time.

rsoultin: Suspicious

The accusation-train keeps on rolling whenever rsoultin is around. I find the similarities in play style to her previous games an indicator of deceit rather than openness. Rsoultin rolled Town in every other game she played like this, so why shouldn't she be Town now? I can't think of a better cover than this. Strangely, even though rsoultin admits that it's her "bias" to ignore inactives, she votes for me. This is strange for several reasons: I was inactive at the time she started my lynch wagon; she had previously agreed with my post on HTS; and there was no progression of thought as to why I was scum.


jarjarbinks: Light Town

Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.

Trfel: Unknown

As Trfel has posted effectively nothing indicating any affiliation, I must refrain from passing judgment on the hangman.

Gumdrop: Town

Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.

Silverarte: Possible Mafia

The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...

ExO_: Light Town

My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.

-Celestial-: Town

-Celestial- maintains a consistent level of posts and explains his thoughts in a logical progression. I see no suspicious behavior, only a desire to understand and unearth new information.

LightningStrike: Suspicious/Unknown

I have my own reasons for being suspicious of LS, mainly due to the constant attempts to shift attention whenever the focus is on him.

Tubesock: Mafia

After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.


Currently, Tubesock has my vote. I'd like to hear other people's opinions as well.


I'll ask again.

So, Warwaffle, I'm your strongest read. What's my scum motivation for having one of the largest filters? Why would I bother trying to get people to talk? Who really pushed to get information from Silver, JarJar, and Gumdrops who universally appear to be deemed lurkers?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 20:25 GMT
#419
On January 07 2015 05:20 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:11 Tubesock wrote:
On January 07 2015 05:07 ExO_ wrote:
On January 07 2015 04:50 -Celestial- wrote:
On January 07 2015 04:28 Tubesock wrote:
HTS, I know you're waiting on some responses to your questions from others, but do you have a D1 lynch list?

I'm starting to get worried that with such little activity, and so many who still need to vote, that people are going to be doing bullshit shenanies at EoD.

Do you have lynch targets outside of Shining, JarJar, and Warwaffle?


I don't think so. I think that's basically the list at this point. Personally I think its a pretty reasonable list for the stage we're at too.


@ExO_: What are your thoughts on LS (and others) pointing out he's played exactly the same way when he's been town on several previous occasions? I've been somewhat persuaded by that enough to conclude that for now I don't think he's the best D1 lynch. I mean I'm still not won over to make him town, but ideally we're looking for a D1 mafia lynch and I don't think he's the one to guarantee it.


Correct me if I'm wrong but is there any example of his mafia play? If there isn't any evidence to show that he'd act differently as scum, then I think the town-meta-read on him is garbage. And even if there is, his play here in this game seems scummish to me. It doesn't matter if in a previous game similar play from him was town. It might if I was on the fence with him, but I'm not.

Which is why I think he IS the day 1 mafia lynch. I think he's trying to be active enough so that we have to say "He's a bad day 1 lynch." Compared to the other candidates (Shining/JarJar/WW) I think he's the best bet. I believe it strongly enough that I'm not willing to concede the vote for now, subsequently voting for one of the others.


If he hardclaims, are you going to ignore it?


It gets a lot harder then. If he is mafia (as I suspect) then he'll have nothing to lose by claiming a blue role.

It'll depend on if he claims blue, and what specific blue role he claims. I won't ignore it, but will make a decision when I see what he says.


It's moot now. He claimed VT so we lynch him now at worst we lynch a vt. I think he's 4th on my list though. I really really want WarWaffle to come back.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 20:27 GMT
#421
On January 07 2015 05:23 LightningStrike wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 05:21 Trfel wrote:
On January 07 2015 05:12 LightningStrike wrote:
I'm Vanilla Town this game I wish I was a Cop to redeem myself from Campus Mafia

Why are you claiming? Don't make it easier for the mafia to kill power roles. You should know better than that.

Because ExO and Tube pretty much asked me to claim.


No. You were getting heat and then softclaimed. Noone asked you to claim. My questions were to avoid that stupid situation where you claimed cop and shenanies happened and you as cop was miss lynched day 1. When you said "I will claim if I have to" is a fucking claim. You did it then, no one asked you to.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:05 GMT
#440
On January 07 2015 04:51 TheWarWaffle wrote:
My apologies for the inactivity. I give no excuse other than the fact that my life is busy.

+ Show Spoiler +
After reading the thread my current reads for the game are as follows:

The Shining: Town

The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.

Half the Sky: Town

HTS acts like a true townie. Says what she wants, when she wants to, to whomever she wants. At least, that's what she wants us to believe, but I don't have anything better at this time.

rsoultin: Suspicious

The accusation-train keeps on rolling whenever rsoultin is around. I find the similarities in play style to her previous games an indicator of deceit rather than openness. Rsoultin rolled Town in every other game she played like this, so why shouldn't she be Town now? I can't think of a better cover than this. Strangely, even though rsoultin admits that it's her "bias" to ignore inactives, she votes for me. This is strange for several reasons: I was inactive at the time she started my lynch wagon; she had previously agreed with my post on HTS; and there was no progression of thought as to why I was scum.


jarjarbinks: Light Town

Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.

Trfel: Unknown

As Trfel has posted effectively nothing indicating any affiliation, I must refrain from passing judgment on the hangman.

Gumdrop: Town

Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.

Silverarte: Possible Mafia

The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...

ExO_: Light Town

My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.

-Celestial-: Town

-Celestial- maintains a consistent level of posts and explains his thoughts in a logical progression. I see no suspicious behavior, only a desire to understand and unearth new information.

LightningStrike: Suspicious/Unknown

I have my own reasons for being suspicious of LS, mainly due to the constant attempts to shift attention whenever the focus is on him.

Tubesock: Mafia

After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.

Currently, Tubesock has my vote. I'd like to hear other people's opinions as well.


I'm going to go through this. I'd like to discuss it since, it's been 45+ minutes and War apparently just vanished. I'm going to take some pieces of it and rearrange a little, but 100% of what's below will be from this top quote.

First his scum reads. They are me, Rsoutlin, and Silverarte. Coincidentally, there are 3 people voting him and 1 person (me) who is supporting his wagon. His 3 votes are Rsoultin, Silverarte, and JarJar.

The Shining: Town

The Shining has not posted all that much but the quality of posting changed drastically as soon as the game started. The Shining asks questions where they need to be asked and maintains a cordial aloofness towards everyone who is playing. No person is accused of anything without evidence.


jarjarbinks: Light Town

Jarjarbinks' behavior sets off no alarm bells in my mind even though he lurks more than he posts. The posts he does make are normally short and succinct, and while many of his posts appear misleading at first, they work in the context. I think the only reason he is voting for me is because other people started the wagon.


Gumdrop: Town

Gumdrop hasn't said much but from what was said I glean bits of Town. The reasons given for not posting more are adequate, and the type of posts implies a desire for something to happen, something the Mafia does not want. The posts that were made are logical and forward-thinking. A more Mafia-oriented lurker would post more misleading information.


So, recap. The shinings posts have changed drastically (assuming for the better?) and being nice to everyone. JarJar makes short and succinct posts, seem scummy at first but they work contextually. Gumdrops 4 posts in the game have the most amazing amount of town per word ratio in the history of mafia. Mafia would only mislead.

Silverarte: Possible Mafia

The ease of which Silverarte hops aboard the bandwagon train is startling. Silverarte was leaning towards ExO_ and Gumdrop being scum, for the reasons of aggressive accusations and "posting and offering nothing" respectively. Somehow, both of these are forgotten as soon as she jumped on my vote bandwagon. For someone who admits she's new and even goes as far to use that as defense for gumdrop her voting for me makes no sense based on her previous actions. The previous existing relationship between Silverarte and rsoultin gives cause for the sudden change of thought, but even so...


I know I'm not the only one who believed the Warwaffle vote was a pressure vote for more information. Does anyone think Silverarte did it for any other reason?

ExO_: Light Town

My thoughts on ExO_ have flipped back and forth for some time now. Initially I thought he was town for being the only one willing to aggressively step and take affirmative action. After that, I thought he was scum for simply spreading accusations thin and putting a cloud of doubt over everyone, which is scum-like behavior. Though his disappearance is suspicious, it does not seem implicative.


Tubesock: Mafia

After looking at all of Tubesock's posts, I strongly believe that he is Mafia. His posts, while numerous, are short (#3) and always seem to detract from the conversation rather than add. Very few of the accusations presented by Tubesock are his; most are other people's regurgitated ideas. I think Tubesock's passive beginning was only due to the low amount of traffic it received, and #1 that his "coming out of his shell" was him realizing that he could take advantage of it. Several times he has posted about the inactivity of the thread, which seems redundant when your very post makes it active. Tubesock #2only did this to make it look like he cares. A Mafia player wants there to be confusion, chaos, and distrust in the thread. Do Tubesock's actions create clear, organized discussion? I don't think so.


So, recap. Tubesocks posts have changed drastically (see bold #1) and being nice to everyone(#2). Tubesock makes short and succinct posts, seem scummy at first but they work contextually #3. Tube is scum for having the lowest town per word ratio in the history of mafia. Yes, because that's how that works. The biggest filters are the most likely scum. Hiding in plain sight.



Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:09 GMT
#442
I forgot to implicitly point out that warwaffle isn't consistent with his town/mafia reads. He thinks it's ok for some people to post short but not others, that it's ok for ExO to spray accusations and leave while it's not for Rsoultin. Difference is obviously, Rsoultin called bullshit on his absence and voted him.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:11 GMT
#443
I'm voting Warwaffle unless he clears up how some players like Rsoultin and Silverarte are null/scum for doing the same shit some of his town reads do. And 2 of his town reads are leading scum reads for this thread.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:16 GMT
#446
My case on Warwaffle is simply what I see as hypocrisy in his reads. He thinks Jarjar and shining are town for stuff but for the same stuff he scums Rsoultin, silverarte and I. I also disagree with his town reads on Jarjar and shining and I think he's essentially OMGUSing those who are on his wagon or support it. Except for JarJar.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:18 GMT
#447
On January 07 2015 06:12 ExO_ wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 06:06 Half the Sky wrote:
To add to what I just said on LS...in the game that he was scum, he acted like he was trying to hide, there was fear in some of his posts...and I'm not seeing any of that behaviour this game.



He literally soft-claimed, then hard claimed. And you don't call that fear? There is panic in his posts.

I don't like your rushing to his aid here. I see all sorts of fear in his posts, how can you not see any of it?


ExO, I agree with you on LS. He's looking pretty scummy. Unfortunately, I see too many inconsistencies in Warwaffles big post. Given some time and after reading my case on war, can you comment on it?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:42 GMT
#457
You missed my vote on WarWaffle
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:45 GMT
#459
Gumdrop, I'd love it if you explained your vote on ExO more. You're currently wasting it completely. In no world is ExO being lynched today.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:47 GMT
#460
On January 07 2015 06:44 ExO_ wrote:
Re-reading the case on WarWaffle, I think there is a lot of scum indications there, but for me it's based on his bizzare reads. He defends somebody like gumdrops in a way that makes no sense. Gumdrops is clearly inactive and not contributing a lot to the thread. He defends shining and jarjar. JarJar's post aren't anything like he makes them out to be, and shining is not the paragon of asking the correct questions.

His post is so wrong that I would honestly believe he was jester. It's definitely scummy. It paints the 3 mafia as himself/JarJar/shining. But it does this so blatantly that it scares me. And then he hardly says anything about LS.

I don't know. It does make me question whether or not the best lynch is LS.


Thank you for responding. I don't know if I'm just confirmation biasing myself, but the more I look at it and think about his post the more I think it's really scummy.

He's read at least the XXX mafia analysis thread, so why is he pushing that it's better to lurk than post?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 21:57 GMT
#467
On January 07 2015 06:54 Trfel wrote:
I apologize to everyone (well okay, just the townies), I don't have time to read everyone and choose the ideal lynch target based on only my own analysis. My fault. I will do better next time.

The bandwagon on TheWarWaffle feels like a policy lynch. The read on Half the Sky is extremely weak, but others have done the same thing. Still, I like the fact that he is analyzing wording and constructing an argument, even if I disagree with said argument.

He only really has two posts in the game. The second one is a big list post. I disagree with several of the reads, but nothing jumps out at me a ton. Therefore, there isn't much to work with at all on this case. I don't really see why this makes TheWarWaffle scum, except for the lack of posting.


So, you read my case?

He's OMGUSing anyone who scums him
His top town are the threads top scum
He isn't consistent at all in his reasoning for his reads. He will scum and towns people for the same reasons.

We've asked him questions and he bailed again...

I'm rereading his 5ish posts and I'm having trouble finding town in them.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:03 GMT
#471
On January 07 2015 07:00 rsoultin wrote:
meh...gonna have to leave my vote on ww with no feedback...


I'll vote Shining or Jarjar tomorrow. If people do stupid shit and shenanny off WW I will only go to Shining or JarJar.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:10 GMT
#476
On January 07 2015 07:06 Trfel wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
I guess I don't like lynching TheWarWaffle, LightningStrike, or The Shining. Yay. Not super convinced that any of them are scum.

So I suppose that I prefer a lynch on The Shining over the other two, since The Shining has been reasonably inactive, despite constantly saying he will play more. I like some of the points rsoultin brought up (primarily the constant references to posting more soon... I get it the first time, or the second time, but now it seems like stalling to try and avoid getting lynched... kind of mad that I didn't notice that for myself). The other reason to vote The Shining is to sheep Half the Sky and rsoultin. From my experience, both are very good players, and they think that The Shining is mafia. They have also kept up with the thread better than I have.

I realize that the timing of this vote switch seems really bad. I am still suspicious of LightningStrike, and am perfectly fine to explain why I voted for him in the first place. The primary explanation is that I wanted somewhere to place my vote, in case something happened and I didn't end up moving it by the deadline (I know that I am town, so I will take a ~25% chance of lynching scum over a 100% chance of a town!Trfel being modkilled, and a vote is easy to move). The reason I voted for LightningStrike is because he asked a lot of generic questions ("Hey you, what are your reads, with explanations please"). I don't remember him doing much questioning in the past, but I could be wrong. Still, asking primarily generic questions makes it seem even more like he is trying to appear useful while really doing nothing. In addition, he likes to use pretty fast meta reads, and didn't provide reads on any of the people he has played with before for quite some time. I feel that it was longer than I am used to.

Anyway, those are my thoughts at the moment. I'm switching votes to The Shining. Meanwhile, I will start looking into other lynch options (open to suggestions), and will be waiting for feedback and pushes.


I'll ask you again. Did you read my case? again the tldr version:

He's OMGUSing anyone who scums him
His top town are the threads top scum
He isn't consistent at all in his reasoning for his reads. He will scum and towns people for the same reasons.

We've asked him questions and he bailed again...

I'm rereading his 5ish posts and I'm having trouble finding town in them.


I don't mind you disagreeing but at least let me know you've seen it.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:13 GMT
#478
Thank you
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:45 GMT
#488
What I was trying to point out that on his town reads the reasonings were the same as he lists for his scum reads.

The Shining is townread with drastic change in his posting style. Yet, he says when I am "coming out of his shell was him realizing that he could take advantage of it." Am I mistaken in thinking that those are pretty similiar reasons but one is town read but the other isn't? He does the same for Rsoultin and Silverarte his only real scum reads outside of me.

Rsoultin sprays scum reads and gets scummed for it. ExO does it and leaves for a long time but it's ok. The difference is Rsoultin pressured, and in several instances WarWaffle towns lurking players. I don't know if I have the biggest filter, but I'm sure it's up there, I was under the impression that mafia don't want to lead in post count.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:50 GMT
#491
On January 07 2015 07:48 Half the Sky wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2015 07:37 Trfel wrote:
I read TheWarWaffle's big list post.

Wrong and mafia are different things. I disagree with many of TheWarWaffle's reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. I find it hard to see how he got some of those reads, but that doesn't make him mafia. To me, it looks like he is searching for mafia, albeit poorly and infrequently. That makes me a bit hesitant to lynch him.


Yea, this is why I want to see responses from him to our questions, I want to hear from him, as do others, but he needs to find a charging station first...



This. So much this. We had pretty immediate questions...and he vanished.
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:56 GMT
#493
Okt, can you explain why LightningStrike is scummier?
Tubesock
Profile Joined April 2011
United States2726 Posts
January 06 2015 22:57 GMT
#494
I'm also assuming you are building a case on me right?
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