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Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 14:27 GMT
#201
First post in first game, I will also give you, Gumdrop, the BOTD for now. I am still interested in your reads.

Lightning, your thoughts on any of the new players that have posted so far?
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 14:29 GMT
#202
EBWOP - Just saw Celestial's massive post. Reading through...
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
January 05 2015 14:30 GMT
#203
On January 05 2015 23:25 -Celestial- wrote:
And I just realised I've been a total dumbass and edited that post to add in the goddamn edit. *facepalm* I'm sorry, that was just instinct. I've never posted this forum before.

Crap...

I did that in my first game on TL Mafia because I was having trouble on copying and pasting stuff together for a EBWOP and got warned. I hope you get warned not modkilled
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52797 Posts
January 05 2015 14:31 GMT
#204
Warning for -Celestial- for editing.
Moderatorshe/her
TL+ Member
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 14:33 GMT
#205
There we go. Fair cop. That was extremely silly of me. X-D

Won't make that mistake twice.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
January 05 2015 14:50 GMT
#206
My new player reads I never played with before since you asked for them HTS

-Celestial-: Town since he gave a lot of good points on why his reads were they were the way they were although he did make a mistake on editing and hoping he not modkilled.


Gumdrop: I need some more posts to figure him out.


Jarjarbinks: Need more posts from him but he got some excuses for why he so little posts so far. I hope he feels better and can play like like his brother!


The Shining: Town for now since she asking some questions and looks like she trying to figure this game out but again I need more posts from him to confirm my thoughts of him being town.


Silverate: I need more posts from her to determine her alignment.


ExO_: Need more posts from because other than the nitpicking on your post there is nothing for me to look at


TheWarWaffle: Town he at least tried to break down the stuff in your post and explain in his mine what the stuff means and asking questions about it. I hope he post more so I can confirm my read on him!
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 14:59 GMT
#207
The Shining is "she" oops? Sorry from my long post there. >_>
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 15:01 GMT
#208
Er and in my huge post I meant "activity excuses" not "accusations" for jarjar.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
January 05 2015 15:04 GMT
#209
Ops I think I messed up there XD Unless The Shining tells us if he/she is a Guy or a Girl we can speculate but let's focus on finding scum.
@-Celestial- I know you reading my neutral but I can tell you I do normally post a fair amount of fluff Day 1 as either alignment just ask some of the players in here that played with me
@HTS What are your reads on them so far and why? Also give your reads on other players if you can too!
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 15:11 GMT
#210
@LS: When I get a chance I'll probably check out those who have played in recent games. Like I mentioned earlier I actually followed some games over the holiday so I know some of the names but I'm a bit fuzzy what happened exactly what with the thesis and everything.

I'm sure I'll get a better read on you when I've checked over your previous games to compare openings. For what its worth you're in the same boat as Trfel with me as "leaning away from scum but not leaning town". Doesn't really make sense as a thing but there it is. Either way to me you're a "do not D1 lynch".
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 15:18 GMT
#211
LS, unless I am misreading your sentence, moderator situations are not alignment indicative, but that aside, Celestial looks good for the most part for the in-depth analysis. I am a little surprised though you mentioned you had nothing alignment indicative on any of the veterans.

Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting?

Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
January 05 2015 15:34 GMT
#212
On January 06 2015 00:18 Half the Sky wrote:
LS, unless I am misreading your sentence, moderator situations are not alignment indicative, but that aside, Celestial looks good for the most part for the in-depth analysis. I am a little surprised though you mentioned you had nothing alignment indicative on any of the veterans.

Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting?

Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself.

I was just sharing my thoughts on his edit on his post and was hoping he not get modkilled lol.
Also on alignment of the vets I not played with you guys when you guys were scum but I do have a slight feeling you and Rsoultin are town again and thought of a funny situation where you tfrel and rsoultin are scum vs me in a dream. Also it's Day 1 and my reads on Day 1 are normally poor except on Metal Mini on Palmar and KSC on Carol of the Bells as scum but I wasn't confident in my scum read there. That just my thoughts for now.
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 15:40 GMT
#213
My reads so far (starting with the new players):

ExO appears to have picked up on a few things, but I feel he also needs to post more, so neutral to leaning town on him at the moment.

I am leaning scum on Shining for questioning the questioning that might lead to a scumslip. I don't agree with the bluehunting comment, but that was the lesser of my concerns.

JarJar, I am null leaning scum given his seeming lack of desire to scumhunt. I felt I made a good comparison basis (the comments he did post and the fact he did read what ExO mentioned to him) even with his excuses. That read could change once I see something more substantial, though on a separate note, I hope he recovers.

Silverarte, Gumdrop, are null for me, with little to go off at this point in time.

Rasputin is town for me, his game so far is largely similar to his previous town games. His reads are not always correct, but I'm seeing the scumhunting and probing I'm used to.

Tubesock needs to step it up IMO, D1 is not an excuse to slack off, but I won't scumread him yet. His first two posts are not alignment indicative and the third post, first paragraph regarding mislynches reads as factual to me, so again, not alignment indicative.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
LightningStrike
Profile Joined February 2011
United States14277 Posts
January 05 2015 15:43 GMT
#214
I agree on the Tubesock and Rsoultin read with you HTS but anything on -Celestial- so far on thoughts?
May the next light shine/Former #1 Alliance LoL fan/ Current Teamliquid LoL Fan
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 15:48 GMT
#215
Thought I said it in the post before my reads...Celestial is reading town to me although based on meta, I feel he is off target on Rasputin.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 15:51 GMT
#216
EBWOP - To clarify, that should read "although based on Rasputin's meta, I feel Celestial is off target on Rasputin."
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 05 2015 15:56 GMT
#217
On January 05 2015 23:22 -Celestial- wrote:+ Show Spoiler +

Hey guys. Trying to get my head around the theme because I've never actually watched 24, though I know about it. I know, I know, sorry.

Got my thesis submitted this morning, yay! So now I have time to actually do stuff. Although I'm not going to spend ALL my time in here because frankly I had no Christmas or New Year and my Birthday is next Monday so...yeah I have to make up for that. Going to watch all of Breaking Bad and Puella Magi Madoka Magica. :D But I'll still do whatever I can to help with the scumhunting in between trying to relax.


Anyway, as I understand it we need to decide on a lynch for Wednesday night, right? According to the counter anyway. Going to be tricky because lots of new players but of those few who HAVE played before...well actually I've been watching some of the recent mafia games over the holiday before I even signed up so I recognise some names. Hope that helps with my reading.



I'm not really familiar with most of the people here I've got some initial thoughts on other people's posts so far. I've read it all and there's just enough to make comments on everyone at this early point:

The Shining made some good points on both HtS and rsoultin. Not a lot to go on but I like his thinking and comments on both of them, its logical and nicely detailed. I'd tentatively start learning towards town on this guy based on that.

Half the Sky posted some fluff and moved onto questioning a couple of people in the last couple of posts. Some people posted some good things about scum reads but Trfel's point that she opened the other game exactly the same way (where she was town) has a lot of merit, I watched some of that game myself actually before signing up here and found her really hard to get a read on early. So for now I'm just saying neutral.

rsoultin running around poking people with accusations. Little bit too quick about it and jumping from person to person very fast it seems. I'm not sure whether to read that as a genuine scumhunt attempt or bluehunting. And very, very quick to judge HtS like he's trying to find a reason to hang someone up as a nice big lynch target right away. Neutral leaning towards scum, I'm somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's my own feeling or influenced by comments from other people so it'd be unfair to go all of the way and say scum. Maybe he's just really enthusiastic?

jarjarbinks hasn't posted much to go on at all. Don't know whether that's because of the claimed computer problems or because he's trying to stay unnoticed though so its somewhat unfair to read at this early point. Though he IS making a lot of inactivity accusations which doesn't look good.

Trfel made a good initial impressions post with a good observation about HtS. Neutral. I want to almost say "leaning away from scum but not leaning town" here from that first post because its how I feel even thought it makes no sense.

Gumdrop one post. Neutral because judging based on one short post, as for jarjarbinks, is unfair at this point.

Silverarte immediately jumped by rsoultin for lack of clarity after her first post commenting on his reading on all his jumping about. This very much makes me feel they're not teamed up as otherwise they'd not want to draw attention like that. My initial feeling is that either one of them is scum or neither is. Though that could change with more posts.

TheWarWaffle gave an analysis on HtS that seems earnest. On the other hand Trfel pointed out that HtS opened exactly similarly to last time when she was town; and given that WW made such a big deal of the quality of his reads it seems a bit strange that he'd either miss such an obvious source of information. So either WW is trying to make an earnest analysis as town and isn't aware of HtS' past game (which would seem strange given his apparent confidence), or he's scum and might be trying to get a lynch train going against HtS. Possibly with rsoultin possibly just taking advantage of his early comments, I don't know. Hard read to make.

ExO_ made good points about rsoultin and jarjarbinks and was good to call out WarWaffle on his claims of tells but not actually saying anything. Although he hasn't posted a lot I like what I've seen. Probably my strongest townread.

LightningStrike just posted fluff and comments on other people's posts so far. Not really sure what to make of that honestly.

Tubesock is coming across as really scummy from those first few posts. He comments about how he likes rsoultin's finger pointing and comments on jarjar positively as well despite the fact the guy has said little. His only other comments are a question about guides, a comment about how we definitely need to lynch D1 and how "even a mislynch gets a lot of information" and playing down his D1 read ability in order to remain under the radar. It seems a mix of sidetracking, contributing for the sake of looking like contributing, and making excuses for not really getting involved.


So yeah...in short I'd say that my strongest townread so far is probably ExO_ and my strongest scumread would be Tubesock. Though with not much to go on so far that could all change. Convince me! :D

Day 1 is hard.


Edit: LS posted as I was writing this. Last post was pretty good in my opinion, some credit there. Still don't want to make a call on him though. Neutral for now.


Before I get started I wanna mention I'm on my phone and so my ability to sift through everything and then subsequently organize my thoughts will be limited. So my posts are likely going to be numerous short posts for now.

I think its important to remember this isnt a purely newbie game. There are coaches, and they are going to have an effect on the posts here. And I think the above post is coached to a certain degree, or celestial is not as new as he seems. I only count 2 town reads in his post, and the rest are either neutral or scum reads.

At first I thought this was scummy, but the more I think about it the more im not entirely sure. Mafia love to call town as town, and a strong townread on me is an easy move for a mafia.

For his first real post into the thread though, its quite a large post. And quite calculated. Makes me uneasy.
ExO_
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States2316 Posts
January 05 2015 16:10 GMT
#218
Shining/silverate/gumdrop all really need to post more, particularly in the next 12 hours or so. Out of these though I can sympathise with gumdrop quite a bit, because in my first TL mafia game I felt exactly as he did. Doesn't really make him town but I'm willing to bet if he was scum his scumbuddy/buddies would be telling him to post more.

Also I read through the setup and its my understanding we dont actually know the number of scum. Is this correct, and if so 3 would be the right number to assume correct?
Half the Sky
Profile Joined May 2014
Germany9029 Posts
January 05 2015 16:17 GMT
#219
On January 06 2015 01:10 ExO_ wrote:
Also I read through the setup and its my understanding we dont actually know the number of scum. Is this correct, and if so 3 would be the right number to assume correct?


ExO, my understanding as well. I'm not an expert in game balance/mechanics, but I'm going to assume 3 based on the fact that my student IV game was 3 scum for 13 players.

For larger normal games such as Carol, Vivax called a formula where scum was total nr of players divided by 5 (there were 5 for 26 players total in that game), but since this is a mini, only 2 players might seem small.
The phoenix must burn to emerge. - Janet Fitch
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
January 05 2015 16:32 GMT
#220
On January 06 2015 00:18 Half the Sky wrote:
Celestial I have a question for you regarding your read on Rasputin. Since Shining also commented on bluehunting, was there something in the content that jumped at you or was it just his manner of scumhunting that indicated bluehunting?

Having played with Rasputin before, and taking on a proper D1 meta read, particularly from Carol, my impression was that he will ask questions if something sounds weird, if I recall right, he threw around many posts at people as he criticised circular reasoning and lack of explanations (which happened loads in that game), but didn't go as far to read scum let alone vote people for poor reasoning in of itself.


Well I can't metaread anyone until I go back over the posts from other games so I'm sure you and others know more than me on his past tendencies. It was the manner really, not a specific post. The jumping about and the nature of the questions themselves said to me that he wasn't looking for particularly deep alignment reads on anyone but was just looking for some kind of tell of anything at all.

My logic is something like this: there seemed to be a lack of interest in actually identifying what someone is but more looking for anything that might indicate someone is different from the rest. A tell that just indicates that someone is a little bit different. But that could mean either mafia or a blue and you can't know which without working out a more detailed read. Who would just want to know if someone is "different"? Well, the mafia of course, because they KNOW they're scum, so anyone who is different from the rest and not one of them is a blue. So by jumping about any tells found are likely to be indicative of blues, since they already know the mafia. A VT or blue wouldn't necessarily know if certain tells were because of scum or a fellow blue; which means their hunting would feel different to this.

I don't know if I explained myself well enough there but that's how I reasoned it. Its not strong enough to read him as mafia, but it came across as a bit scummy to me. Of course that could just be the way he plays, like I said I don't know people well enough right now to metaread so if you have a different position based on that I can't really contest it.



On January 06 2015 00:56 ExO_ wrote:
I think its important to remember this isnt a purely newbie game. There are coaches, and they are going to have an effect on the posts here. And I think the above post is coached to a certain degree, or celestial is not as new as he seems. I only count 2 town reads in his post, and the rest are either neutral or scum reads.

At first I thought this was scummy, but the more I think about it the more im not entirely sure. Mafia love to call town as town, and a strong townread on me is an easy move for a mafia.

For his first real post into the thread though, its quite a large post. And quite calculated. Makes me uneasy.



I'm actually quite honoured that you think I'm not as new as I seem. Genuinely my first game of Mafia on a forum. I've played it in groups at theatre rehearsals before today though and a little bit in that SC2 arcade mod.

If you're fishing why it was so large and detailed, I handed in my thesis this morning and this is the first chance I've been completely free and gotten to actually do something fun without that weight over me for...well, years now. So I got a little bit carried away. I don't have any mafia examples because this is my first game, but my tendency to get carried away with large posts can be seen in several examples across here, LiquidDota and LiquidHearth when I really get into a topic.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
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