Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 10

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Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 21:40 GMT

#1023

I can still mock him though right?

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 21:52 GMT

#1025

On January 11 2015 06:44 rsoultin wrote:
I also disagree with you on that, Tube, about ExO. Scum or town can buddy up or cast doubt, and he never followed through on that post (that I recall).

The follow-through from ExO is missing for scum-hunting, I think. You see HTS doing it. Asking questions. Reevaluating the answers. ExO seems to just throw it out there.

I encourage you to read his filter. It seems very scattershot to me, especially on Day 1.

I also don't like at all that he keeps on about you and him being the "Celestial push". No offense, but the majority of his argument were the things I already said looked scummy about Celestial's EoD play. And they did. However he conveniently forgets where he got those points from?

I agree that his points probably weren't original. He didn't need to pursue the answer to my questions because just before I labelled Celestial mafia. Celestial even posted the exact post that ExO was talking to me about and it showed the answer was Celestial. It's WIFOM to think that Celestial wouldn't know the answer without a very tight noose around his neck, but I think the point is IF I didn't know who ExO was asking about, he would have said something further. I do this all the time, I'll ask someone something, and if they give a good answer, I leave them.

I agree that buddying up isn't alignment indicative. My argument is that mafia wouldn't vet in thread who they are buddying up with, they'd ask in their QT.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:02 GMT

#1028

Trfel didn't scum anyone in his filter. The closest you can get is where he said it was weird that everyone towned -Celestial- and he didn't understand that. That was a very subtle way of scumming someone.

I think ExO_ was seeing if I read Trfel's case critically and was paying attention, and trying to find information. My response told him I did infact see the same post, and am acting on it.

Sadly, despite both you and ExO_ questioning/pushing whatever earlier than when I filter dove Trfel, I didn't suspect -Celestial- for a good halfway through my questioning of him. I started feeling weird, and then saw where you were suspicious of Cele and then I starting thinking more, and not liking Celestial's answers. Then I apparently was condescending to him and posted the baby seal post. Which, I wonder if he knows the significance of the baby seal and mafia.

Celestial, I am not calling you fat. The Seal thing is a mafia reference to some play long ago a mafia guy did trying to look innocent.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:04 GMT

#1029

Hmm, you could be very right.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:09 GMT

#1031

I don't understand why mafiaExO would add another soft point would change things?

He may have asked it, but wouldn't mafiaExO also use that point in his argument? Did i miss it when he did?

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:12 GMT

#1032

On January 11 2015 07:07 rsoultin wrote:
I just don't know how you could arrive at any different answer, is all. I'm not saying you're not critically thinking. Just not sure that ExO was doing anything but bringing up another point on Celestial, and really not seeing how that post was alignment indicative at all.

Ah. It's mainly from my interactions in Carol with Alakaslam. It's how I reached out to him, and I was able to connect and use more interactions later to town him or not. He posted some flying post, and I nitpicked it to pieces in my head, so I wanted to know why he posted it.

I guess I felt ExO was doing the same to me but with something in game and on case specific.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:18 GMT

#1034

I thought he was talking to me. Are we talking about the quote I just quoted a few posts ago?

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:22 GMT

#1036

On January 11 2015 07:19 rsoultin wrote:

Show nested quote +

This one wasn't it?

That's the one, I'm finding it on day 2 and rereading. If he wasn't talking to me, then yeah I'm way off.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:28 GMT

#1038

Start at the top of page 39 just looking at who ExO was talking to.

I posted something, then wihtout quoting a minute or two later he responds with the post we are talking about.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:30 GMT

#1040

Specifically here:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474146-newbie-mini-mafia-lx?page=39#765

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 10 2015 22:31 GMT

#1042

Turns out I'm dumb.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 00:45 GMT

#1074

On January 11 2015 09:40 -Celestial- wrote:
Or at least that's how I read her posts.

You are not getting lynched today.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 00:55 GMT

#1075

The biggest problem to the ExO_ lynch for me is that he's been helpful.

Before Scott131337, the only people who I felt were helpful to me were ExO_, HTS, and Rsoultin.

The people who are unhelpful to me were:

-Celestial-, Jarjar, Shining, Silverarte, and ~~Gumdrops~~.

I'd prefer to lynch Silverarte today. Let's keep the ExO and Shining conversation going though.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 00:58 GMT

#1076

On January 11 2015 09:01 ExO_ wrote:

Show nested quote +

On January 11 2015 08:59 rsoultin wrote:
Okay, well...we're running out of time for the night phase, so I'm going to put my thoughts into one post.

Town reads: HTS, Tube, JarJar (less certain on my brother and almost completely certain on the other two, but he legitimately does predictions based on statistics for a living and his voting patterns have been logical and in-line with his reads)

Nullish/Do Not Lynch Day 3: -Celestial-, Scott (doc claim/breadcrumbs and AFK replacement respectively)

Would Lynch:
- ExO (90% certain) his scumhunting seems more like throwing darts at a board (at the risk of sounding hypocritical) and his read progression/interactions with Trfel at EoD Day 1 especially, including the rage!fit after the flip, seem insincere to me...a good idea would be to check if his pushes start up after thread sentiment has already begun to swing that way (I know the Celestial one did)

- Shining (70% certain) for his start that I think I've mentioned a few times now, but also this oddity of completely dropping any pressure on ExO after WW flipped for no apparent reason...even goes so far as to say that there might be scum on the LS wagon but still gives ExO a bye when the only other one there was WW, says he's taking the game seriously after Day 2 but mostly just posts defensive posts and a push on -Celestial-, then finally ends with his only post of Night 2: a WIFOM game balance argument that Celeste must be scum cause this game can't possibly have a doctor (why when we don't know the set-up at all?)

- Silver (least certain) she never stepped up. could be newb play, but all I see from her filter is sheeping and I'm not getting the feeling that she cares to find scum, especially since she dropped the people she was scumreading to sheep me Day 1 (which is sad to say cause I <3 my silver ^^)...her big posts only come after she's prodded for them, contain a lot of fluff, and the rest are mostly excuses

Final Comment: With the breadcrumbing, I think that Celestial is a likely mislynch. Please, if I am not here to provide my input, whatever you decide, be really certain before you lynch an un-CCd role.

I was the first to bring up Celestial rsoultin. Tube didn't start on him until after I did. Are you lying, or have you just not read the thread?

I remember her talking to and questioning Celestial before you did Night 1. I assume she's speaking on that.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 01:41 GMT

#1080

HTS, ExO_,

I need advice.

I can't help it as on paper I know it's bad, but I think Shining is Town based on my tinfoil hat. After N2, a couple people including Rsoultin said the tinfoil hat may not be so bad.

Scott comes in with 2 posts and at first I think I can easily sheep him. Then I think that -Celestial- who is still alive, and I think is super scummy, built a case on Shining.

Rsoultin towned Jarjar who was my "strongest" scum behind Celestial minus his un-CC claim.

This leaves as the mafia team:

Celestial, Silverarte, and Scott/Gumdrops.

Rsoultin died because she's the most important player to town. For me, this gives credence to towning Jarjar. It also would theoretically set up a mlynch of ExO_.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 02:11 GMT

#1083

On January 11 2015 10:57 scott31337 wrote:
Tubesock -

I'm trying to feel your point of view on Silverante (beyond the uselessness I see).

Do you think she's a better lynch then Shining?

Show nested quote +

On January 09 2015 11:01 Tubesock wrote:
I don't get anything from her list post here. I don't think there is anything memorable in it. Where is she scum hunting? When is the point in the game where your only posts are list posts inappropriate? It's a big long post (which people town sometimes) but where is any point where she shows indepth concern or thinking on someone?

I definitely have problems with lacking conviction the longer the game goes. I feel every one of her reads will turn into a sheep vote of one form or another. Just like Lightning but she says nice things that make way more sense than he does.

On January 08 2015 14:35 Silverarte wrote:
Well! Soultin took pity on me and told me about the Filter function. Let me tell you...that helps so much. (Who knew that going page by page out of all of these was a 'bad' idea? XD)
So, I think first and foremost...I owe a recap of what I think everyone is!

The Shining: You, my friend, are getting scum votes all over the place! And I'm not entirely sure what to make of you just yet. Part of this is certainly my inexperience, but I felt you defended yourself relatively well here in your second post. The first ones you gave flipped back and forth, but it looks like you're backing your decision this round. I'm neutral, leaning towards towne.

HTS: You asked my motivations and thoughts on what's transpired so far. Personally, my first thought is 'Crap, we're getting picked off!". In regards to Waffle, you're right, I sheeped (I believe this means when we're following the votes of others rather than something else, right?). I did this because the cases being made were more reasonable to me at the time. When I was scumming ExO and Gumdrop, I wanted to give them the opportunity to respond before I condemed. I can't say I tunneled, but the sudden silence on Waffle's part made me more suspicious than anything.

As for how I feel about you? (Sheesh I wish we didn't keep missing each other! Well, if I survive til the weekend, I have that off? =D) You've been very consistent and straight forward. You are a straight on town read for me. What are your assessments currently?

Also, in answer to your last post you popped up...I have never played this game before. I am a complete newbie and this is game number 1. (Soultin had been talking about Mafia games continually and I told her I'd try it out). So if it's hard to read me, believe me when I say I find it difficult to read all of you. I'll keep trying though. =)

LS: You are a constant poster, and points to you for that. You do a great job keeping other posters engaged and getting people talking and questioning. I looked through your filter through the beginning. (talk about a read!). Currently, looking through your posts, i'm reading a lot of generalization and little to no specifics on your reads at the moment. I'm growing steadily suspicious of you, particularly with your votes following the 'sheeping trend' (hee...I like that phrase), but I'm seeing little to nothing else. Can you tell me how you're feeling on the people here in, in what way you're leaning and why?

JarJar: I'm not sure what EOD means, but yes, that whole crazy paying the bills thing is biting me in the rear at the moment. Now then...let me bump back to replying to your post at me. That being said, I'm not sure if you just called me out on being scum or not. So, I'll respond as though you did and if you didn't? Weelll...bonus information? =D

I'm discovering one of the hardest things about defending yourself from that view is activity with posting. To compensate, I do my best to post when I come home and before going to work. THAT said...my vote on Waffle was indeed sheeping with Rsoultin. She wrote a good defense and looking back through the posts (which I was going page by page at the time...gosh I love filters) it made logical sense to me. And for me, that matters. That said, in defense against being scum, while I sheeped a vote, I have not tunneled towards anyone and I've been open and honest about what I thought and why.
So let me direct a question or two towards you. You aren't out of the suspicion waters yet with me! =P Following what you said about voting LS, what is your reasoning for it? What ranks him above Tube or Shining?
Gumdrop: I have to admit, I'm more than a little concerned about you not posting,my friend. When you show up, share your thoughts! Who's suspicious? Who isn't?
Celestial: You're been prolific in your posting, and it's led me to think town for you at first. The throwing away of your vote (as you put it) still puts a redmark on you to watch. I think my biggest fret is the free town passes early, straight to the vote...and then I'm not seeing much here about trying to contribute for the town and it feels floaty about-ish. Is Rsoultin your biggest target right now? Why?
Tubeshock: I'm just neutral on you. You put thought into short bits of words. I'd be really interested in knowing what you think of everyone at this point too. Are JarJar and Shining still your top picks?

At this second, yes.

I'm having trust issues at the moment and I typically use the Night phases and first half the day to absorb and think. I didn't get to do that during this night phase. I need time to think about worlds.

I like your case. I could easily sheep it. I don't see anything really wrong with it persay, but I have a really hard time thinking Shining is scum due my theory, and D2 he sounded pretty towny to me. Even in N2 I didn't think his posts were scummy or anything. Granted I don't remember them, but I was focused on different things.

I have a lot of things I think are mafia from Silverarte. I think I've mentioned basically all of them.

I really need to marinate a bit here. If you have questions, I'll be happy to answer them. I'm just digesting right now.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 02:17 GMT

#1085

Even if you read Rsoultin's legacy concerning Silverarte it's like she doesn't want to insult her by calling her mafia since they are friends. There isn't a single towny word in Rsoultin's paragraph about Silver.

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 02:26 GMT

#1086

On January 11 2015 11:12 Half the Sky wrote:

Show nested quote +

Regarding Shining, there are three different people that are scumreading him. Review the reasons why, review also when they are scumreading as their views could have changed. Scott has the (obviously) most recent case. Rasputin who is confirmed town has her reasons, and we need to crosscheck against Shining's filter for that.

Personally, my thoughts on ExO at face value (prior to the exchange with Rasputin and exploring a world where he could be scum) are that he's a low-post high content type player. To me, postcount is NOT alignment indicative in of itself, but some people here make the argument that scum tend to drop off in posting over the course of the game, which is a valid concern.

I don't know ExO's play style/meta, etc. but prior to today's exchange I did not feel any problems with him.

Additionally, in the Carol post-game, I can't remember which vet it was, but someone said there are multiple ways of scumhunting. Regardless I'm going to review the exchange between him and Rasputin and see if there are any red flags. If there are, I will point them out and simply ask.

Regarding Scott, a replacement player should always start as null until they make an impression. Gumdrop posted even less than Silverarte, but it's a new player now. and from what I can tell, I assume you are scumreading him based on POE.

I am going to judge Scott on content and if I don't like his case I will question it.

It is based on PoE. Which is why I wanted some advice from you two.

That and I don't know how to deal with the situation where Scott and Celestial case Shining. Jarjar hasn't really interacted with me and avoided several questions from me, and you it turns out.

I'm less concerned with his methodology, but I want to know at what % is someone lynch worthy? I mean at his last post it was 46% for his lead. Is that high or low or what? Why couldn't someone take away from that that he had essentially all town reads since they are less than 50% chance of being scum?

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 02:29 GMT

#1087

Concerning Rsoultin and ExO's interactions I was flashbacking to me attacking celestial and what I would have done if WarWaffle responded.

ExO has been very upfront with the fact he would have hammered WarWaffle if people shenanied off. In what world would mafia admit that?

Tubesock

United States2726 Posts

January 11 2015 02:34 GMT

#1089

On January 11 2015 11:29 jarjarbinks wrote:
HTS on the equation thing

added 2% scum based on what I was thinking his quotes were at the time

I remember telling myself, I will laugh wen all of us think he's scum and he turns town. Not as funny now that we are in trouble of losing without even getting 1 right.

I'm busy but I will spin my equation stuff up and post my thoughts. Based on knowledge of it I would guess exo and shining are top 2 with a very large dropoff before #3

Can you also elaborate on how to use that information? I don't think professional numbers people and laymen see numbers in any of the same manner.

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