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On January 02 2015 16:15 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Artanis was giving me weird red vibes way earlier but his logic in slaying geript was strong. I'd have to read his filter too conspiratorial for him to even bother responding to
i mean, if it's so strong, why did he move to chyz...?
thoughts on sicklucker? he's playin like str8 bootyjuice right now but I feel like he's still town.
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On January 02 2015 16:00 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:Alright, here's some vote count analysis. First, the count, hidden behind double quotes for readability. Added green for batsnacks' flip. On January 02 2015 13:56 Fecalfeast wrote:I kount vot ritoky (1): DoctorHelvetica, sicklucker, marvellosity, Superbia TheChyz (3): Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Vivax, TheChyz, Batsnacks, DoctorHelvetica, Artanis[Xp]DoctorHelvetica (0): TheChyz, Koshigeript (4): Koshi, Artanis[Xp], Palmar, Artanis[XP], Lazermonkey, DoctorHelvetica, Marvellosity, justanothertownie, KelsierSC, sicklucker, Eden1892marvellosity (0): Artanis[Xp]Lazermonkey (0): TheChyz, BatsnacksIAmRobik (0): Artanis[XP]sicklucker (1): ritoky Vivax (2): Koshi, geript Batsnacks (6): Justanothertownie, eden1892, doctorhelvetica, artanis[Xp], damdred, sicklucker Not Voting: folks Currently batsnacks is set to be lynched.
until deadline. First thing I want to look at is outliers, because I think they tend to be easier to figure out. The three wagons at end of day were Chyz, geript and batsnacks, so all other voters are defined as outliers here. They are: Superbia ritoky Koshi geript Additionally the nonvoting RebirthOfLegend can go here. Superbia: Has all of two posts in the game, neither of any substance. Says ritoky claimed mafia with their big reads post without explaining why, votes ritoky and then bails for the rest of the day, not bothering to convince anyone to vote for ritoky. Ignores JAT asking for an explanation, no one else really seems to care either way. I don't like this. For all I can derive from Superbia's thought process from this vote, this might as well be a dice roll vote. There's nothing here for me to make any sense of. If Superbia is town and believes ritoky is mafia then why not try to convince anyone to kill ritoky? And if Superbia doesn't then why completely abandon the thread and not bother to try to figure out who is mafia? ritoky: After the vote (which came between his big reads list post and his next post itt), ritoky only brings up the case on sicklucker once... when sicklucker questions him on it. Spends most of the day being engaged in other discussions and feeling out other players for their direction, but doesn't push the case on sicklucker. And it's not even not pushing it because of a change of heart or anything, as far as I can see. The case is just dropped altogether without any mention, like it never existed. After talking to sicklucker there's only one passing reference to the suspicion at all (responding to GlowingBear and saying they were "on the same page" concerning, among others, sicklucker). This is really suspicious considering how aggressively ritoky pushed early in the game. Even allowing for a change in posting style due to time constraints resulting from ER work, you figure that if ritoky is still sure about the read on sicklucker that there'd be some effort to push it. And ritoky can't even claim to have had a change of heart, because sometime during ritoky's last burst of activity, (s)he posted an updated vote count including the vote for sicklucker. I feel like if I were a townie here and I had posted that vote count update after suspecting sicklucker, and I had internally changed my mind about sicklucker being mafia, posting that I was voting for sicklucker would be a wakeup call. Like "whoa, wait, I'm still on that guy? I need to move my vote." Koshi: Arrived at suspicion of Vivax about an hour before posting a vote, pressed Vivax on a few key questions during that hour, pushed the hell out of a Vivax lynch before going to bed at a time which 100% syncs up with his irl location. Sorry that was short but this looks clean as can be. Only reason Koshi was on an outlier was because of a lack of time to push the case once it formulated. Koshi is probably town. geript: On January 02 2015 14:24 geript wrote:
Not ideal. I just assumed I was going to be lynched or at worst Chyz. Best option Vivax. I get why Bat was sketch, but why the last second switch? This is garbage. Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier? And then there's this gem shortly before: On January 02 2015 12:23 geript wrote:
Vivax is probably an ok lynch but I'm not actually sold that he'll flip mafia. So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed. geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that. TL;DR ritoky, Superbia mafia geript wtf You shouldn't do such baller analysis -- you might die in the night. P.S. I came to the same conclusion as your regarding your scum reads. Excellent work
Thanks bae. Anything to add?
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On January 02 2015 16:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Why do you feel like he's town? Skim a few pages of his filter and see if you feel any different
I read the first and last page and I feel the same for no intelligible reason. He just seems so... childlike. Not childish but childlike. That quadruple text message saying "Bae dont go  " where he even misspelled my name is just too much. Lemme reread it when I get a chance tomorrow and decide, ok?
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On January 02 2015 16:34 ritoky wrote:
so we're lynching sicklucker like...immediately and unanimously at the start of next phase right?
spends most of phase talking about why geript is mafia, randomly shennanie hammers a town for no stated reason coming off of the guy he hast stated is role hunting and mafia....guy was mafia last phase, still mafia this phase. needs to die immediately. like 0 questions asked.
Welcome back to the land of the living. (I apologize in advance if anyone died in the ER.)
What happened to pushing this read when you had a chance to get him lynched?
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On January 02 2015 16:35 sicklucker wrote:
can be mafia together
I wouldn't worry about this yet, we need to find and kill a mobster before we can really start worrying about whether x and y fit as a team. They can both be independently suspicious and worth killing.
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On January 02 2015 17:01 VisceraEyes wrote:
@Doc - Flame me if you will, but I don't think your case is super strong. I can see some of the points, but frankly I agree with the sentiment that you just started at some point just making everything he does "scummy". There was some point where he appealed to you directly and your response to him sealed it for me. Like, he COULD have been just town trying to reason with you but you vilified him for it. He could still be mafia. I'd like to see what he has to say when he's not responding to a never-ending death-tunnel. For my part, I wouldn't fight his lynch tomorrow and would sooner shake my head in disapproval than argue with you continuing to tunnel him tomorrow, I'm just saying there's a lot of stuff in this game that's colored by this read and it could be wrong and you're gonna hate yourself in the morning if you come to find out that it's wrong. Take a step back and look elsewhere for a bit. Then maybe come back to this dude. I like what I've seen so far this night-phase. And for God's sake don't freak out and quit if it seems like no one is listening to you. That's the one line I've seen you toe this game I'd REALLY like for you to avoid.
This seems fluffy to me, Doc already moved off of Chyz to vote geript, then moved off Chyz again to kill batsnacks. Doc spent a lot of time d1 on Chyz obviously, but at this point with Doc talking about other people and having killed someone not named Chyz, calling out Doc for tunneling Chyz seems easy.
Correct me if I'm wrong VE but does this not just boil down to "Doc tunneled hard on Chyz and I don't think mafia!Doc does this"? If so, can you please contribute something else? You say you've already read most of the game but imo this is probably the easiest thing to pull from the game so far. You sound like you're ready to play, which I like, but I need something a little more next-level to show me you're really dialed in.
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On January 02 2015 17:14 Koshi wrote:
Page 86-88 batsnacks is active like hell and gives reads. People fucking lynched him? WHAT A FUCKING JOKERS.
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
This fucking happens when people start playing right when I go to bed and I can't protect them from teh jubjubs.
You're gonna have to cite sources because he wouldn't even tell me straight that he thought Chyz was mafia despite voting him. I can understand your frustration at not having Vivax go but your summary here thoroughly contradicts what I experienced on the ground at the time in question.
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On January 02 2015 17:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
It's meant specifically for Doc, as notated by the "@Doc". So yes, it actually IS fluffy, because if you'll notice I've already said that I think Doc is VERY VERY town. That post isn't meant for me to show YOU that I'm paying attention to the game. That post is meant for me to appeal to Doc to hang in there because I witness him almost lose it like twice this phase and I'd like to try and play a civil game with him. It has nothing to do with you or my reads.
OK, that's fair, sorry I misinterpreted where you were going with it.
Care to show me now by commenting on something else? 
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On January 02 2015 17:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm just reading your fervor as over-the-top and feigned Koshi, sorry. Maybe if you EXPLAINED why you think someone with circa one post is mafia I'd be less bored.
I agree with this. Koshi I really don't see how it is that you conclude the batsnacks lynch was really that bad if you read p86-88.
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I don't take back that it's feigned bitterness. Lol
Or at least it seems that way. I admit I still haven't really looked at Vivax but Koshi's plainly incorrect assessment of batsnacks is leaving me skeptical as to his genuineness right now
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On January 03 2015 06:59 sicklucker wrote:
Who made that list post on the people who wasted their votes? because that was really good. Was that ritoky or eden?
That was me. Hidden behind double quotes for readability:
Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:Alright, here's some vote count analysis. First, the count, hidden behind double quotes for readability. Added green for batsnacks' flip. On January 02 2015 13:56 Fecalfeast wrote:I kount vot ritoky (1): DoctorHelvetica, sicklucker, marvellosity, Superbia TheChyz (3): Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Vivax, TheChyz, Batsnacks, DoctorHelvetica, Artanis[Xp]DoctorHelvetica (0): TheChyz, Koshigeript (4): Koshi, Artanis[Xp], Palmar, Artanis[XP], Lazermonkey, DoctorHelvetica, Marvellosity, justanothertownie, KelsierSC, sicklucker, Eden1892marvellosity (0): Artanis[Xp]Lazermonkey (0): TheChyz, BatsnacksIAmRobik (0): Artanis[XP]sicklucker (1): ritoky Vivax (2): Koshi, geript Batsnacks (6): Justanothertownie, eden1892, doctorhelvetica, artanis[Xp], damdred, sicklucker Not Voting: folks Currently batsnacks is set to be lynched.
until deadline. First thing I want to look at is outliers, because I think they tend to be easier to figure out. The three wagons at end of day were Chyz, geript and batsnacks, so all other voters are defined as outliers here. They are: Superbia ritoky Koshi geript Additionally the nonvoting RebirthOfLegend can go here. Superbia: Has all of two posts in the game, neither of any substance. Says ritoky claimed mafia with their big reads post without explaining why, votes ritoky and then bails for the rest of the day, not bothering to convince anyone to vote for ritoky. Ignores JAT asking for an explanation, no one else really seems to care either way. I don't like this. For all I can derive from Superbia's thought process from this vote, this might as well be a dice roll vote. There's nothing here for me to make any sense of. If Superbia is town and believes ritoky is mafia then why not try to convince anyone to kill ritoky? And if Superbia doesn't then why completely abandon the thread and not bother to try to figure out who is mafia? ritoky: After the vote (which came between his big reads list post and his next post itt), ritoky only brings up the case on sicklucker once... when sicklucker questions him on it. Spends most of the day being engaged in other discussions and feeling out other players for their direction, but doesn't push the case on sicklucker. And it's not even not pushing it because of a change of heart or anything, as far as I can see. The case is just dropped altogether without any mention, like it never existed. After talking to sicklucker there's only one passing reference to the suspicion at all (responding to GlowingBear and saying they were "on the same page" concerning, among others, sicklucker). This is really suspicious considering how aggressively ritoky pushed early in the game. Even allowing for a change in posting style due to time constraints resulting from ER work, you figure that if ritoky is still sure about the read on sicklucker that there'd be some effort to push it. And ritoky can't even claim to have had a change of heart, because sometime during ritoky's last burst of activity, (s)he posted an updated vote count including the vote for sicklucker. I feel like if I were a townie here and I had posted that vote count update after suspecting sicklucker, and I had internally changed my mind about sicklucker being mafia, posting that I was voting for sicklucker would be a wakeup call. Like "whoa, wait, I'm still on that guy? I need to move my vote." Koshi: Arrived at suspicion of Vivax about an hour before posting a vote, pressed Vivax on a few key questions during that hour, pushed the hell out of a Vivax lynch before going to bed at a time which 100% syncs up with his irl location. Sorry that was short but this looks clean as can be. Only reason Koshi was on an outlier was because of a lack of time to push the case once it formulated. Koshi is probably town. geript: On January 02 2015 14:24 geript wrote:
Not ideal. I just assumed I was going to be lynched or at worst Chyz. Best option Vivax. I get why Bat was sketch, but why the last second switch? This is garbage. Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier? And then there's this gem shortly before: On January 02 2015 12:23 geript wrote:
Vivax is probably an ok lynch but I'm not actually sold that he'll flip mafia. So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed. geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that. TL;DR ritoky, Superbia mafia geript wtf
Anyway, I don't think geript answered this (not hiding for readability):
On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:geript: Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 14:24 geript wrote:
Not ideal. I just assumed I was going to be lynched or at worst Chyz. Best option Vivax. I get why Bat was sketch, but why the last second switch? This is garbage. Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier? And then there's this gem shortly before: Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 12:23 geript wrote:
Vivax is probably an ok lynch but I'm not actually sold that he'll flip mafia. So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed. geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that.
So can anyone else explain how this makes sense from... any POV? His explanation is obviously BS to me and I feel like he has to be mafia because I can't see why a townie would do that.
I was reading the thread some at work and I think I'm on top of things, but it's possible I missed something. Did Superbia ever say anything that mattered? I saw ritoky did.
I think I want to kill Superbia and/or geript today. I also think sicklucker's recent posts are rather suspicious but I don't want to kill him because he's adorable. Everything he posts makes me want to hug him and say "Bless your heart boy" and reach for a swig of sweet tea while sitting in my rocking chair on my front porch. I admit this is atrocious reasoning and will probably be talked out of it if sicklucker is the kill tomorrow but can we keep him? please???
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OK sicklucker, I like you and I want to believe you aren't mafia, so I want you to do something for me, because it is hard to do so right now.
I need you to take a minute, collect your thoughts from the hour before and after the batsnacks lynch, and tell me in one post what your thought process was and why you did what you did. I will ask you questions about it which will refer back to your previous responses in the thread. If I don't like them I will lynch you, maybe tomorrow maybe later but I will come around to it at some point and you'll die. If I do like them I will trust my instinct that you're town and ignore the incredibly shifty reasoning you've given so far to justify your behavior.
I feel like sicklucker is getting extremely flustered because he believes the batsnacks lynch looks bad for him, and if he's fairly inexperienced to the game (as I believe he is? just based on tone, someone can correct me if I'm wrong) I can see plausible town and mafia reasons for getting flustered like that.
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On January 03 2015 07:41 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +ya im done, this game has been such a mispleasure to play. Thanks dr.H, great game played by you. Best town player by far. You caught the scum. Here are my current notes btw. Not sure if sarcasm when he tilted.
I don't really get why he would, as mafia, ragequit right after trying to post a big case on Lazermonkey and right before posting all his claimed notes for the game, though. Like if he's mafia giving up and letting himself get lynched why would you bother to post a big list of things?
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I didn't say it was impossible, I questioned the motive for doing it. Last effort for sympathy doesn't really make sense when he self-voted. Misdirection only works if people bother to read what was in those notes and I almost guarantee no one has yet.
I think it means something, as I've said before:
Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 12:49 Eden1892 wrote:On January 02 2015 12:36 Eden1892 wrote:
I'm not really sure what to do with geript. He's started trying, which increases the chances of him being town; it can make sense for a caught mafia to give up but never really does for a townie being mislynched, so the fact that he's trying to avoid getting killed is probably good all else being the same. ...meanwhile, Chyz apparently decided to self-vote and leave. Ugh. Forget I said this, I was reading Chyz town until he did that and him doing it reads frustrated town rather than mafia. I can't really see why a mafia would bother posting a huge reads list that would just leave his teammates at risk of getting caught by association if he's going to self-vote. You self-vote as mafia to end the day quicker and get people complacent with that vote, not to give them a road map for how to find your team. As for why, I go back to that large case Chyz wrote on Lazermonkey and it rings so genuine to me. Maybe I'm just a sucker for his opening line about excessive emotional investment but I feel like it would take a stone cold liar to throw something like that out as mafia just to excuse your previous play. I know there's nothing that actually stops you from doing that as mafia, but I figure if you're making up an excuse for your previous absence, you're going to pick something that sounds plausible, which means the excuse you're going to give is deliberate and something you've thought about. Something about claiming you were "too emotionally invested for my own health" seems... out of bounds, you know? Hopefully this makes sense to someone else cause I think it makes perfect sense to me but I can't really find the words. Just seems like lying about your emotional well-being is a shitty thing to do to win a game. And I'm gonna admit I didn't actually read the case on Lazermonkey beyond recognizing that it was one of those classic confirmation bias supertrains that everybody who's ever played town enough times has taken themselves on. And the emotional-investment thing kinda proved itself decisively when he self-voted, didn't it. I'm not killing Chyz today and I really recommend others don't. I really wish he hadn't self-voted but I can't see how the sequence of posts of his at the end was from a mafia POV.
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On January 03 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote:
@edin im a math person and not confident in day 1 reads. When 4 people I believe to be town agree on a lynch I will follow their instincts over my own. Thats all their really is to it. If 4 people I believe are town of 6 think player x is mafia he is the most likely mafia in my mind.
Would you describe yourself as not confident in your read on geript on day 1?
Rereading the vote counts I believe the 4 town reads you cited were me, Doc, Arty and Damdred. Is that correct? If so, can you explain for me why you townread Artanis day 1? If not, can you tell me who they were?
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On January 03 2015 08:21 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 08:12 Eden1892 wrote:On January 03 2015 07:56 sicklucker wrote:
@edin im a math person and not confident in day 1 reads. When 4 people I believe to be town agree on a lynch I will follow their instincts over my own. Thats all their really is to it. If 4 people I believe are town of 6 think player x is mafia he is the most likely mafia in my mind. Would you describe yourself as not confident in your read on geript on day 1? Rereading the vote counts I believe the 4 town reads you cited were me, Doc, Arty and Damdred. Is that correct? If so, can you explain for me why you townread Artanis day 1? If not, can you tell me who they were? Correct. Like artanis was the one who called out gerit for his half ass poor read on me. From my pov hes correct so for day one hes totally town could be pocketed but less likely
I need an answer to the first question in my last post here. Would you describe yourself as not confident in your read on geript on day 1?
Can you elaborate a bit on what read Artanis called out from geript that made Artanis seem town to you?
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And in the meantime, can someone explain what was so bad about the batsnacks lynch? I still think it was acceptable and the only bad part about it was the flip. Still think my case on batsnacks was okay and I feel like it's a little cheap that a bunch of people logged on after batsnacks flipped and waxed poetic about how terrible a lynch it was without even engaging what was (in my perhaps-biased opinion) the most influential singular post in getting him killed.
Like if everyone's going to decree this lynch bad, it seems like questioning me about my case would be an obvious starting point to finding out if the batsnacks lynch was town- or mafia-driven. I was the most outspoken singular person in the final hour of the day for killing batsnacks, I wrote the biggest case that people seemed to follow. Yet as far as I'm aware not one of the people complaining about the lynch has asked me anything about it. It makes all this gnashing of teeth about the lynch ring incredibly hollow, like people are complaining about it because it's the in thing to do instead of trying to figure out what it means for the game.
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On January 03 2015 08:43 marvellosity wrote:
although it is in large part explained by Palmar being a loon
I was on the verge of ranting at him specifically for this and telling him to get his mind right, cause I don't really remember Palmar going off the handle like this as town when things don't go his way. But as I was thinking it he said he was gonna go play DOTA, so I figured the better way to let him get his head right was to let him do that instead of submitting him to another voice in the game yelling at him.
I'd still like him to explain though. Even if I'm just bad and don't see how the lynch is bad, I can develop myself as a player from the critique.
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On January 03 2015 08:46 KelsierSC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2015 08:39 Eden1892 wrote:
And in the meantime, can someone explain what was so bad about the batsnacks lynch? I still think it was acceptable and the only bad part about it was the flip. Still think my case on batsnacks was okay and I feel like it's a little cheap that a bunch of people logged on after batsnacks flipped and waxed poetic about how terrible a lynch it was without even engaging what was (in my perhaps-biased opinion) the most influential singular post in getting him killed.
Like if everyone's going to decree this lynch bad, it seems like questioning me about my case would be an obvious starting point to finding out if the batsnacks lynch was town- or mafia-driven. I was the most outspoken singular person in the final hour of the day for killing batsnacks, I wrote the biggest case that people seemed to follow. Yet as far as I'm aware not one of the people complaining about the lynch has asked me anything about it. It makes all this gnashing of teeth about the lynch ring incredibly hollow, like people are complaining about it because it's the in thing to do instead of trying to figure out what it means for the game. I didn't realise you were here but yes I want to look at your case again look at the case SL and dam made and especiaally look at how scummy SL has been (my case) and then you can understand why that lynch was bad.
Why would their cases matter for the lynch being bad? Unless their cases are better than mine, and are still bad, they seem irrelevant. Sorry but I'm not going to be convinced a lynch I pushed and wrote a big case for is bad by being redirected to other people writing cases for the same lynch. I know you're saying you want to look at it again, would you care to do so and talk to me about mine, please?
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EPT
