On November 26 2014 08:02 Trfel wrote:I'm becoming highly suspicious of batsnacks.
Looking at batsnacks' posts this game, it does seem like he hasn't contributed many reads or constructive comments at all. He has pressure voted kushm4sta, and tried to convince other people to vote for kushm4sta, as shown:
On November 25 2014 10:27 batsnacks wrote:
I think you should all start voting kush since that's the most logical vote right now.
Then Oatsmaster starts hinting that he might be mafia, and he responds as follows:
On November 25 2014 12:25 batsnacks wrote:On November 25 2014 12:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
He has bad posts regarding a read ohf HTS, his policy lynch on kush is really bad and he is using that to avoid playing the game and doing actual useful things.
This isn't a read. None of oats' posts contain reads.
oats is play is like 80% asking questions that have already been answered and 20% badgering the host about issues he could fix himself.
If my plynch on kush is bad give me something better.
I've seen oats play a lot better than he is doing right now.
He just starts attacking Oatsmaster, without actually providing any argument against the accsusations.
It's been nearly 24 hours and I cannot find any critical thinking or logical reads from batsnacks. He has been only minimally probing for information, as well.
Now, examining batsnacks' mafia history, it seems to show similar, non-accusatory play as mafia, but an ability to logically provide arguments against people as town.
In
Fantasy Football Mafia Mini 2, his most recent mafia game, batsnacks was a mafia vanilla. His posts generally seem to lack content, for example this:
On October 23 2014 16:57 batsnacks wrote:On October 23 2014 16:50 Alakaslam wrote:Exact same amount of letter swapping sson
I only had to swap 2 letters, the A and the I. You have to swap 3, the N, O, and W. Plus you have an extra letter that doesn't even belong there.
Looks like I'm right about you. You're clearly reaching here.
batsnacks did give some analysis in saying that robik seemed to be town in that game, which ended up being correct. But he failed to provide specifics or any real evidence of this:
On October 24 2014 06:50 batsnacks wrote:
I think robik looks pretty solid. I like how he's posting; he's focused, not all caps, consolidated, no personal dramas, that stuff is what reminds me of hard to get along with robik. @DrParnassus what about robik this game seem hard to cooperate with? Could you quote an example? You did say -everything about the way he's playing- reminds you of that.
He also defends Liam from an accusation. Up to now, the only two real things he's said are claiming these two people to be town. At this point he is accused of being mafia, and this is his defense:
On October 24 2014 21:41 batsnacks wrote:
I think I'm not a good lynch right now. For obvious reasons.
He continues to not provide any true defense or explanation for his actions, and ends up being lynched on the first day.
In his mafia game before that,
Fantasy Football (FFL) Mini, batsnacks is a town vanilla.
On October 06 2014 23:34 batsnacks wrote:On October 06 2014 23:28 Oatsmaster wrote:On October 06 2014 23:26 batsnacks wrote:
Oats if you are in fact "contributing" shouldn't you be thanking me? I did enable these "contributions" of yours. I feel like you're annoyed with me for allowing you to contribute.
Or are you annoyed with being in the spotlight this early?
You dont get to claim credit for something that happened accidentally.
What are your reads, mainly holyflare and me?
I agreed with HF a lot last game and he was town. I'm agreeing with him this game already so, tentatively town.
I'm voting you because I think you're scummy.
Also lol at "accidentally"
You claimed on accident now?
batsnacks accuses Oatsmaster of being mafia in this game (which ends up being incorrect). But when he defends someone as being town, he provides some support for this claim, and also shares his views a bit.
On October 07 2014 08:07 batsnacks wrote:Wait a minute, something isn't right. I quoted all of the following from the same post.
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...there's roughly speaking 13 players, right? If 3 are scum, then that gives us a solid 22% chance of lynching scum purely based on RNG.
No townie in this game knows the ratio of town to mafia, so it is correct here that BH gives us an example ratio of 10/3 or 22% as an example.
But then later in that post he says this:
On October 07 2014 02:35 Blazinghand wrote:
...the fact of the matter is, I'm offering a straight-up 22% chance to lynch someone.
BH how do you KNOW there are exactly 3 mafia? I bolded
fact because that's a serious word to throw around when you're supposedly working with estimates.
Here's a critical analysis of a post in that game. It doesn't result in anything, but this post has more logic and scum-searching than his play to this point in the current game, as well as his play in the first game I mentioned, where he was mafia.
On October 08 2014 02:24 batsnacks wrote:On October 08 2014 02:22 Hopeless1der wrote:You had one job batsnacks.
+ Show Spoiler +and then HF gave you another one.
Does it make you nervous that I've already figured out you're mafia?
Then he claims Hopeless1der to be mafia, which ends up being correct. I don't see any reasoning listed, though. This post also came after the first 24 hours of the game, unlike all of the other posts quoted here.
I did notice this inconsistency between his post in this game:
On November 25 2014 10:58 batsnacks wrote:There is no such thing as scum slips, so no, dude didn't scum slip.
and this:
On October 07 2014 08:29 batsnacks wrote:On October 07 2014 08:19 Grackaroni wrote:
You're implying that at the start of the post BH was careful not to slip that he had knowledge of the setup. (by pointing out that the number of scum is unknown) and then *slipped* that he was 100% sure there were 3 mafia within like 10 seconds of typing which is really unrealistic.
What I see is BH working off the assumption that random lynch provides at least 22% chance of hitting mafia compared to day 1 analysis which varies (and BH thinks is worse for catching mafia)
I think it's feasible that he slipped.
besides
The TL mafia database disagrees that random lynch is better. So by random lynching we 1) have worse odds of lynching mafia and 2) players who agree with the random lynch have zero accountability for their votes.
Why the change? Probably just a change in his playstyle, but another explanation is that he is searching for mafia in that game, and has less incentive to do so in this game.
Looking at batsnacks' play in the game preceding the above game,
2p2 Vanilla Werewolf 13er, batsnacks immediately comes up with a comprehensive look at GlowingBear:
On September 26 2014 08:14 batsnacks wrote:I'm not completely caught up yet but I still think GB is mafiawolf.
On September 25 2014 11:02 GlowingBear wrote:I think Storr is mafia because of this:
This post stinks:
On September 25 2014 09:20 StorrZerg wrote:(1) i'd lynch fecal for the donkey entrance to the game.
the overly troll attitude fecal has with the caps locks, and insta vote on holy is really throwing off scum vibes. Deff would lynch.
On September 25 2014 08:34 Fecalfeast wrote:
The fact that nobody was using the voting thread made me think they were joke votes. That's why I didn't use the thread anyway.
Lol I actually like your case holyflare
"yeah right"
Also i don't like the GB entrance to the game
On September 25 2014 08:41 GlowingBear wrote:
Oh THANK GOD I'm town again! I hate rolling scum.
Ok, Haru, tell me what you think of holyflower by now
(2)unless im missing a game he just played, last game he was scum. seems odd to lead with a lie.
(1) very has reason to call someone definetely scum. I did that no geript last game. There is nothing alignment indicative in fecal's entrance and that makes storr look bad.
(2) storr was scum with me and I clearly stated on the qt that I wanted to be town. I was mafia for 3 games and I wish I was town on this, which I am. I never lied.
The way he is disliking entrances looks like he is trying to pretend to be an aggressive town.
Also, he gives Haru free town pass for his entrance and also obiwan. None has alignment indicative posts.
On September 25 2014 10:11 StorrZerg wrote:
obi probably town too.
I'm on a phone and I'm too lazy to search for the town pass on Haru now.
storr is my strongest scum read the moment Here's his case on storr. He says storr is pretending to be aggressive town by disliking entrances. That is a weird thing to say. How can GB tell the difference between someone who is pretending to be aggressive town and someone who actually is aggressive town based on so few posts? Imo he can't and is just making stuff up.
He also scum reads storr for saying someone is "definitely" mafia and says he said the exact same thing as scum last game. Well, look at this:
On September 25 2014 11:32 GlowingBear wrote:
Naaaah. I'm positive storr is scum.
##Vote: Storr
He did it again this game.
I also think this post is scummy:
On September 25 2014 13:09 GlowingBear wrote:On September 25 2014 12:51 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 25 2014 12:42 GlowingBear wrote:On September 25 2014 12:28 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 25 2014 12:22 GlowingBear wrote:On September 25 2014 12:19 Hopeless1der wrote:
not much time tonight, but right now severely dislike glowingbear. Very shallow reads imo. HF's case wasnt terrible, it was misplaced. If haru couldnt prove he was actually sad about rolling blue I'd be voting for him right now. Since the case has obviously failed, why would HF stay with it? Thats ridiculous.
Then there's his scumlist...what the hell is that about. players have literally not even posted yet, but GB has solved the game? I dont buy that in the slightest.
I'll probably be gone until this time tomorrow but should be generally more active when I'm around during my evenings. (Just started a new job, dont want to play at work)
Because that's his scum read and if the case didn't go through he should be asking more questions to Haru to get more information?
Lol...
HF's case on Haru was literally based on one post that was demonstrably false using out-of-thread but public information. Again, why try to stick with such a case? Refusing to "overlook" (which is a strange way to phrase it btw) his case would be way more suspicious than dropping it like he already has. The fact that this seems suspicious to you makes YOU look suspicious to me.
Because it's easy, as scum, to pick on a tiny problem to bus a partner then drop the read.
That is so incredibly shallow. Unless I have found surefire scum tomorrow, I'm voting you just based off this interaction.
btw, fecalfeast is behaving pretty similar to last game imo. No reason to hate on him just yet. Palmar seems to have gotten upset that no one uses the voting thread to follow his policy and has taken up a silent protest. Sky is new to TL but not to mafia. I'd like to hear his (her?) thoughts on why d1 claimers usually got lynched on SK.
I'm gone for now, see you all later.
It can be shallow, but
at least I'm the only one trying to get people talking. Nothing is in the way of updating my reads the more people starts to talk. If you lynch me, you'll be lynching a townie for stupid reasons and you'll soon lose the game as much as you lost our last one
The "at least" in that sentence is really scummy to me. It's a tone thing. It's like he's really saying "I'm mafia but
at least I'm the only one trying to get people talking." It's also scummy how he says he's the -only- person getting people talking. GB made a case against HF earlier for dropping his case against HaruRH. I'm not a mind reader but I think HF made that case to get people talking. So GB is scum reading HF for trying to get people talking -- while saying he, GB, is the only contributor in the thread.
I also think this post is scummy:
On September 25 2014 10:18 GlowingBear wrote:
Ok
Glowningbear's first scum team guess: Haru, HF, Storr
Gonna have dinner and give reasons
GB is referring to himself in the third person here in order to distance himself from his reads that he doesn't actually believe in. How can he be confident he's caught the whole scum team and solved the game? Later when he's drunk he posts this:
On September 25 2014 17:48 GlowingBear wrote:
My dribk senses says JAT is possibly mafia
So now GB has found 4 mafia... HF is mafia for getting people talking with an early case, Haru is mafia for unflipped assosiations, storr is mafia because GB can tell somehow that storr is just pretending to be aggressive town, and JAT is mafia because ???
Speaking of reads, GB is frantic this game about "getting reads." He is addicted to reads and needs an intervention. He wants to convince us so badly that he is trying to get reads that he can not stop saying it:
On September 25 2014 08:46 GlowingBear wrote:
It won't help me getting reads if you use day1 just to charge your solar beam.
On September 25 2014 09:46 GlowingBear wrote:
Asking about holyflare's case to everyone is my way to get people talking and getting reads from them.
On September 25 2014 11:11 GlowingBear wrote:
Why I think Haru is scum:
He doesn't want to talk much, not letting me getting reads:
On September 25 2014 11:11 GlowingBear wrote:
Why not talking? He should be helping us with reads day1.
On September 25 2014 11:15 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm done with the reads. I'm going to get ready for a party.
On September 25 2014 11:28 GlowingBear wrote:
Because I want people talking about people so I can get reads.
On September 25 2014 13:09 GlowingBear wrote:
Nothing is in the way of updating my reads the more people starts to talk.
On September 26 2014 00:33 GlowingBear wrote:
Sorry, I'm guilty of getting people to talk to get my reads instead of immediately attacking both HF and hope.
On September 26 2014 00:33 GlowingBear wrote:
I think that is good to register and to get reads.
On September 26 2014 00:49 GlowingBear wrote:
Gut feelings VS actual reads. Actual reads won.
On September 26 2014 00:49 GlowingBear wrote:
It could be totally wrong but at least I would get people talking more so I can have more reads
He's clearly thinking and investigating the posts, and trying to find the scum. Then he starts thinking that SkyDragon is scum:
On September 26 2014 08:18 batsnacks wrote:Also this post is really scummy:
On September 26 2014 01:07 SkyDragon wrote:On September 25 2014 12:51 Hopeless1der wrote:Sky is new to TL but not to mafia. I'd like to hear his (her?) thoughts on why d1 claimers usually got lynched on SK.
"His" is correct. :p
d1 claimers got lynched depending on what they were saying.
- If they claimed to be Town with nothing to back it up, they were seen as suspicious and people would vote to lynch them if their play-style doesn't match.
- Throwing out names on the first day was seen as suspicious.
- Feigning ignorance of a particular role was suspicious unless he weren't very bright in the first place (As one guy did when he asked the Mod in the thread whether getting no pm means that you're a Villager - We straight away knew that he was trying it, lynched him and he turned out to be Mafia)
- Changing votes repeatedly was seen as suspicious.
- Normally active players who become quiet were seen as suspicious.
There's no one answer to fit all situations really. There were also power roles so someone may have been saying something considered "weird" because they were the Seer, Doctor, Vigi or some other good role (And the last thing you want to do is get them lynched). There would be some hesitation to vote to lynch anyone on Day 1 but sometimes something is said that just doesn't feel right to several people.
It's a long post filled with info that makes zero conclusions about anything. Perfect mafia post. If I'm not voting GB today I'm voting skydragon.
He continues to press on GlowingBear and SkyDragon. Both end up being town, but batsnacks is showing that he is capable and willing to attempt to find scum and provide logical accusations that other players are scum.
In conclusion, batsnacks seems very suspcious because he has not yet provided any real content, particularly at least one accusation of someone being mafia with an argument behind it. This resembles his play in his last game, where he was mafia, and contrasts with his play in previous games where he was town. What do you guys think?
First good job, overall this is a really good case and took a lot of effort it looks like to put together.
And for lolz I will say When has bats ever really shown logical critical thinking skills! ( I love you bats)
The big thing about bats is that he has taken great strides to change his play between games. The style and tone of his play and if you can remember him is his biggest mafia give away and lurkiness.
I do not think that you are necessarily wrong in what you are saying, we should be very suspicious of batsnacks and if he really stops doing things and is forgettable we lynch him immediately. But i'm not confident enough as it seems he is trying to push something when talking to people he does ask for reads from people.
You are now town to me.
EPT
