EPT[I] TLLOLOTGDTM - Page 6
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On October 15 2014 07:50 WaveofShadow wrote: It makes sense from a shit town perspective, and zero from a scum perspective. He keeps taking completely unpopular points of view which are likely to get him lynched, he refuses to take advice or listen to those better than him. Tell me how drawing so much negative attention to oneself and acting the way he has toward others is scum play. This is both the most self-centered and stupidest post I've seen you make. Taking advice in a game where a full quarter to third of the people want to kill you? Yeah ok, let me get right on that. If my plays are stupid beyond belief, at least they're my plays and not being influenced by anyone else. | ||
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Trying to read. All our sites went down. Work is more important than this. | ||
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Can you both give full reasonings for your scumreads on Ghandi? | ||
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1) None of them are scum. This is of a moderate likelyhood. 2) All of them are scum. This is statistically unlikely. 3) One or two of them are scum. This is statistically the likeliest. Of the options, I find that obviously #3 is the standing situation that we are dealing with, so that is the assumption that I am going to be working under in my post. Let us look at their actions on Day 1: Soniv spent most of the day doing nothing but moving the discussion along and asking for people's reads. He called Alzadar out, but relented when he posted and moved to MoonBear instead. Both were perfectly reasonable targets considering their posting was sparse and low content. This makes them safe for Scum to attack (if Alz is also scum, getting the free mislynch is easy) and reasonable for Town to attack (for game points). His vote on MB was early, and he didn't pressure it too hard, just dropping small notes about how he disliked MB's play. Again, this could go either way, but in retrospect feels like a very subtle scum play. ...which, if he's scum, feels like a very different play from his hard pressure on me today. However, that could be deflection pressure considering his noose is being fitted. Even though he was on MB's case, he wasn't as aggressive as he was towards me during the first half of this day. It's a hard read. Ghandi spent most of Day 1 being... Ghandi. I can't talk bad about this considering I was not playing to my full potential during that day either. He was a hard read for me, to the point that based on that first day alone he would be Town. His moves were not focused enough to be scum trying to do things. That said, considering his low involvement and his level of new-ness, he could very well just be a scum player not doing anything and letting the other scum do the work. This works well with my later assumptions, and I think the probability of Ghandi being Scum right now is very high. Worth noting is how investigations into Ghandi involve him posting his normal way, one liners and shitposting, but investigations into other people get him to post much more coherently. This could just be normal for him (as my posting is for me), but it could be a tell of some sort. Though I'd like to think Ghandi would be better at hiding it than that. Wave is still my highest Mafia read. This remains and unpopular opinion and I will concede to not pursue it until he is once again under the spotlight for other people. Many people during Day/Night 1 called him out for his play being manipulative, which he deflected by backing off. That does not change the fact that he started D1 with a very flamboyant post designed to gain the attention of the new players and lots of "teaching" posts that ended up swaying many opinions, mine included when he pointed me at LordT and fired. During Night 1, he was very upset about the MB pick and changed his stance about heavy influencing, which most people took as a natural progression. However, this post certainly got my attention on his trail again: On October 15 2014 04:56 WaveofShadow wrote: Eh. I think the only 'dangerous one if left alive' is probably me at this point. /master of manipulation This Flanderization of my viewpoint on him is a very well played dodging tool. Rather than arguing against it, he takes the claim of manipulation and turns it into a joke, creating a situation where anyone who pulls it against him again is no longer taken seriously. And that's a dangerous shield to have when the entire game is "How to Win Friends and Influence People 101". Still, this post is either masterful Scum play or Town confirmation: On October 12 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote: lol fuck that, no offense Req but if tolkien flips red I want credit for drawing attention to it first  Any thoughts on my post people? If the LordT train had picked up steam and he was the Day 1 mislynch, it would have put Wave under a microscope. However, with that in mind, I'm leaning towards good Scum play. Scum!Wave would probably know that this particular bandwagon would not pick up steam, and he would have plenty of escapes if it did. If anyone could do that and get away with it, it would probably be the most experienced member. Still, of course, I could be wrong. I pursued LordT too hard and it shattered my confidence when he flipped green. There's no such thing as 100% knowledge in this game (much to my dismay), and I can always be swayed off of Wave if presented with the right situation. Now, the interaction between these three is important. Beginning the game, the first two posts out of the gate: On October 11 2014 09:05 jcarlsoniv wrote: waaaaanderful jeffery, what's up and why are you scum On October 11 2014 09:11 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Bad habit I guess :/ This seems like normal banter, especially given the relationship these two have garnered in the past. However, if we look at a situation where both Soniv and Ghandi are both scum, what does this post do? It separates them into their normal standing dynamic. Without getting too WIFOM, it sets them apart and creates a state in everyone's mind that Soniv and Ghandi are just being themselves. This is mirrored by Wave and Ghandi here: On October 11 2014 09:54 WaveofShadow wrote: ##Vote: GhandiEAGLE Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you our first scummer. Vote along with me for glory and for victory. On October 11 2014 09:58 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Are there a set amount of each role? Also fak u wavvy boy On October 11 2014 10:12 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Lynch Wavvy boy and join me in the glorious sunset ##Lynch: WaveofShadow Again, the two of them settling in to their normal dynamic. In both of these cases - Wave/Ghandi or Soniv/Ghandi - we can infer similar things. 1) If the Golem is Scum and Ghandi is Town, it is a play to get a train on a very easy target (because who doesn't like to hate on Ghandi), and also gets the ball rolling on a Townie right off the bat. 2) If the Golem is Town and Ghandi is Scum, it's normal interaction and Ghandi is just being himself as a defense mechanism. 3) If BOTH are Scum, it's a ruse to keep them separate in public eye. They also know that, just as it is easy to get a hate train on Ghandi, it's just as easy to put the suspicion onto someone else, using Ghandi's shitposting as a cover for him to "escape" public scrutiny. 4) If NEITHER are Scum, it's normal interaction, which was the point I've been talking about. I think the likelyhood of none of them being scum is very low. So our situations are: Soinv - Wave - Ghandi OR Soinv - Wave - Ghandi OR Soinv - Wave - Ghandi In a VERY unlikely situation, we may have Soinv - Wave - Ghandi But I think that is all but impossible at the moment and I will not consider it a realistic scenario at this time. This is my hunch, though it may not be the most airtight. Going off that hunch, I will stick to my vote on Soniv. If he flips GREEN, then it's assured (in my book) that both Wave and Ghandi are Scum. If he flips RED, then our scrutinization is between those two. Likely this would result in a Ghandi lynch since people seem to be more on that boat, though that could change Night 2/Day 3. While Wave is my higher feeling, I realize I'm not going to get anyone focused on him today, so pursuing that vote is moot. | ||
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On October 16 2014 06:38 GhandiEAGLE wrote: Also Req, you say the only way I turn up green (in any actuality) is if both Wave and Soniv are red, but they've been the two counterbalances. While it's possible that they've been orchestrating this for awhile, I don't think I'm willing to buy that level of skill from the both of them. Also, if there's 3 scum, then you're calling a lot of shady people innocent. That's really poor reading if you're legitimately confident in those scenarios. That's why I said that the likelyhood of you all being scum is very, very low. But given the dynamic between the three of you from the start, I think the possibility of at least 2/3 of this little triad being scum is within acceptable limits. | ||
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On October 16 2014 06:42 GhandiEAGLE wrote: My point is that I disagree a great deal about the 2/3 likelihood. I think it's very likely one of us is scum, and I don't think it's Wave, which is why I say it's soniv (an opinion I have been expressing since nightfall, Ketchup). I just think it's shortsighted of you to believe that of all the lurkers and shitposter this game has had, only one of them outside the "triad" is guilty. Aside from myself, there are 10 question marks left. There are a couple I have a low scum feeling on (Asmo, for example), so let's round it to 9. That makes the three of you 1/3 of the possible Scum population. Statistically, one of you is scum. 3/3 is very unlikely, but 2/3 is not unheard of given those odds. | ||
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On October 16 2014 06:47 WaveofShadow wrote: K, read it. Not as much lols to be had as I thought there might be (though I wonder at what point your continued refusal to see me as town eventually makes me lynch you). You did forget to consider the scenario where all three of us are town. Not sure why you don't talk about that at all. Also not sure why you're absolutely certain 2 of us are scum rather than one. Like...the analysis is decent if you had more to base it off of but there's so much speculation interspersed in there based on very little. I dunno what else to tell you in that regard man. I really think one of us is going to feel VERY silly at some point in this game, and I highly doubt that person is me. As I posted above, it's fairly statistical that 1/3 of the three of you is scum, given Cixah is IC and I would not put myself in the calculation. That's a numbers game, which is the closest thing to "hard evidence" that there is in this game (of course, with the prior knowledge the Statistics are not in any way a perfect tool, it's about as good or better than feelings). And given the interactions, I find it highly unlikely that only one of you is Scum, except in the situation that Ghandi is the only one out of you that is. That said, if we vote Ghandi and he flips RED, I don't feel that this clears you or Soniv. I just feel that the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenario is more likely than the Soinv - Wave - Ghandi or Soinv - Wave - Ghandi scenarios. | ||
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On October 16 2014 06:49 WaveofShadow wrote: Like it sounds arrogant but I'm being completely truthful here, the fact that that you still can't see me as town req is concerning because it's either just deplorable townplay, or scumplay. Unfortunately I still think you fit into the first category. Everyone thinks that about themselves. If you seriously think that I'm going to write off anyone as pure town, you're crazy. Even Asmo, who is my highest Town read, is not free from suspicion. The fact that you take any suspicion towards yourself and immediately turn it around and say "Of course I'm squeaky clean, you're scum for not agreeing" does not make me trust you in the slightest. Every person in this thread should realize that they are not clean. Except Cixah. | ||
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On October 16 2014 06:57 WaveofShadow wrote: lol I don't expect confirmed town from you but there are just so many facets to my towniness that you continually, pruposefully and obstinately ignore it's just SO bad. In any case this doesn't go anywhere so no point in discussing. Vote count, maestro. Again, this does not inspire confidence. "I'm so totally Town that you don't even KNOW" isn't a defense. Yes, you have done plenty of Town things. So has everyone, and there are still 3-4 Scum among us, and possibly even a Third Party. If I look at anyone, I can find reasons to trust them. My reasons for mistrusting you are still beeping on my radar louder than everyone else. On October 16 2014 06:55 jcarlsoniv wrote: Alright, whelp, it's pretty clear at this point that the only way to get you idiots to stop voting for me is to claim. I am the Parity Cop. "But Soniv, why didn't you claim earlier?!" I was hoping that I would be able to talk you guys into putting your pitchforks down, and I was still pretty confident I could up until recently. As the Parity Cop, it is imperative that I make it through N2 without being roleblocked or killed. The longer I go without claiming, the longer scum goes without knowing what I am, and I was really hoping I would not have to claim. But for a town that bitched and moaned that Wave was trying to take control at the start of the game, you sure have been happy to let him lead your crosshairs. I crumbed my N1 target, and earlier today I crumbed my intended target tonight. (both parts bolded in the below posts) Now, Wave, instead of tunneling me as hard as you did, you probably should have actually read my posts instead of sticking your fingers in your ears and going "LA LA LA YOU'RE SCUM" - you might have noticed what I am. But at this point, you're either retarded or malicious, and I'm honestly leaning towards the former. Either way, you can suck my dick. There are two hours left. Now get your god damn fucking votes off me. This is interesting to say the least. Let us see the scenarios: 1) Soniv is lynched and flips GREEN (IE, lying to try and save himself). This puts Mafia in a bad position, but Town in a worse one. Do not want, bad situation. 2) Soniv is lynched and flips BLUE. This is bad. Very bad. 3) Soinv is lynched and flips RED. This is good. Statistically, lynching him is a bad call. But, before I unvote, we have to consider that this is the perfect cover for Mafia!Soniv. He can't prove himself N2, and if he stays alive and I am shot N2 or hanged D3, he remains "The Parity Cop" with no way to prove he isn't. So... I don't know. If I pull my vote off him, I'm basically signing my own death warrant. Because one of two things is going to happen. Either Mafia kills me tonight, which puts him under suspicion, or Mafia kills him tonight, which puts me under suspicion for killing him off for outing me. As I know I am not scum, I think the best thing to do here is to do this: ##unvote jcarlsoniv I will likely die at the end of the night tonight. But, if I do not, and Soniv dies tonight, take this vote and post into account before you lynch me on D3. | ||
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On October 16 2014 07:11 WaveofShadow wrote: Req wtf? What are you going on about? Oh wow, I totally misread. I thought he said his second check was on me for being his biggest scumread. Still, I stand by my vote removal. And given that I am his biggest scumread, there's a decent chance he's looking into me anyway, so the logic stands. | ||
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##vote GhandiEAGLE | ||
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On October 16 2014 07:22 WaveofShadow wrote: I don't think I have any 'good' reasons. I'm just feeling real weak right now. Jeff has actually put forth a fair amount of effort at what is likely the end of his life (obviously could be scum survival motivation as well) and even were we not to lynch him at the very least he's more useful/will be easier to read than coma. I'm also tempted to push owb but I need more time on that one. I still think Ghandi is scum. I was ok taking Soniv over him because I thought we could glean information from it, but I want to hold off based on the development. I'd rather vote on someone I have a decent scum reading on than a shot in the dark at someone who, to me, is just half playing and half lurking. | ||
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On October 16 2014 07:48 Alzadar wrote: Like I get that it's a really bold move for a scum to make but it's the least risky of all Blue claims. Are fake claims actually not a common thing? The thing is you're right. But if he is blue, then lynching him is basically writing our death warrant. Given that we've lost two VTs at this point, I don't feel confident putting a vote on him at the moment. | ||
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^ The stupidest role. You get to play with no information about anything or anyone and enjoy a good long game of "he said she said". | ||
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On October 16 2014 08:29 WaveofShadow wrote: Asmo dropped the hammervote. Highly doubt he's scum now. Um? He was in your top 2/top 3 most of the early day today and then you said nothing about him. How is he suddenly Town-free? | ||
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