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Guilty Mini Mafia - Page 22

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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 01:10 GMT
#2063
I'm still undecided and will hopefully come to a conclusion while I go to sleep. Good night!
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 01:11 GMT
#2065
Or after I return to the game, rather
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 01:12 GMT
#2068
Well it's a good thing at least both the Masons survived.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 01:17 GMT
#2076
Well here go my current thoughts in a quick summary:

Masons: GB, turtlevine

Probably town / not scum at least (possible SK?): Hapa, yamato, WOS, KSC

Lynch candidates: VA, Damdred, Onegu

Onegu was added to lynch candidates because his lurking is disturbing and his push on rayn was suspicious considering that he *should* be good at reading rayn, but he didn't really add much to the rayn case and disappeared for the lynch.

And now to sleep.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 10:14 GMT
#2126
Yeah I got the same feeling from the NK's. jat just makes sense no matter who did it, but it feels like Hapa would be the most likely culprit for killing rayn (especially since he said that rayn is "mentally disturbed town" just before the deadline although earlier in the night he said that rayn would be the "clear lynch" - then his first reaction after the kills was "nice I was right about rayn", gathering that credibility even though he didn't even explain why rayn was suddenly town...). Hapa being Mafia doesn't make any sense but I feel there's a decent chance of him being SK. At least the highest I can think of right now. It also helps that his scumcases are generally a bit... nitpicky in the sense that they focus on something relatively trivial unlike his excellent towncase on me. And his pushes have been pretty... lacking with confidence / effort.

I'm a bit torn what to do about it though. Him not making sense as scum reduces his chances of flipping non-town greatly. On the other hand, killing the SK would reduce KP and probably give more time to figure out the game. The problem is: is he really that clearly SK? I don't think so. At least he seemed to care about the D1 lynch which points to town. And his entrance push of rayn wasn't something that I think SK Hapa would first think of (gathering a lot of attention and causing rayn to OMGUS). I'd say just let it be for today and worry about it later if he somehow remains alive.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 10:24 GMT
#2127
VA's claim is interesting. I think it's possible (especially with the GF role PM mentioning that a Watcher probably exists), but still it's a pretty weird claim. Why claim now, why roleblock instead of Cop checking? Neither of those make much sense from town perspective. On the other hand, the scum motivations are clear: possibly reducing pressure without giving (almost) any information to town, and claiming a roleblock just reduces information given compared to claiming a check. So I'd say this claim isn't really aimed at helping town in any way, just to survive, which points more to scum/SK.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 10:39 GMT
#2128
I'm honestly just bad at reading Damdred so I don't exactly feel comfortable lynching him today. Onegu doesn't even have many posts to work with. So I think lynching either of them is closer to a 50/50 than I feel comfortable with right now. Well, it worked out with Robik, so it's not totally out of the question.

However, I feel like VA has a better chance of flipping scum/SK. His playstyle has been serious and "focused" in some way, but overall all his posts have been forgettable and without impact. Even so he has exaggerated his own helpfulness on multiple occasions (like when he had to "step in when the thread was a mess"). His attitude during D1 was really disinterested towards finding out scum and more focused on blending in and survival. He even says it directly...

On August 24 2014 06:28 VayneAuthority wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2014 06:23 Damdred wrote:
On August 24 2014 06:20 VayneAuthority wrote:
On August 24 2014 06:19 Damdred wrote:
On August 23 2014 07:27 VayneAuthority wrote:
##vote: Damdred

he drops off anytime anything game defining happens, knocking it in


On August 24 2014 02:52 VayneAuthority wrote:
On August 24 2014 02:48 justanothertownie wrote:
On August 24 2014 02:46 VayneAuthority wrote:
On August 24 2014 02:44 justanothertownie wrote:
Since when do you care about the lynch day1, vayne?


Do I have to troll every game? not really. I always try when im needed and this game is a mess.

Ok, who do we lynch?


well right now my vote is on damdred I think he is a solid lynch given his activity level and what he has said no far (nothing original) I'm willing to switch to yamato or hapa though.


These are your two points on me. You agreed with me on GB, you said you disagreed with the wave stuff (did you disagree with my conclussion or that it was original content?) and wrote the rest of my things off as fluff which I disagree with.

Both of your points even if you still think i'm fluffy are disproved. Am I really worth your vote right now? Yamato is the easy vote so no I won't push him right now i'm not 100% that this is his scum game even if its hard not to vote for him right now, some of his stuff shows actual thoughts behind it even if he hasn't posted a case on wave like he promised yet...

Either way I disagree where your vote is and your reasons for voting


so where do you propose we go from here then? I'm not really sure what you are trying to accomplish day 1 thats a good place to start.


Obviously the only place to go is scum hunt, i've already put forth that I think Xatalos is pretty scummy. And I don't like Onegu case on Rayn and his promise to read the thread and contribute has him not really doing anything at all.

And honestly i'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish day one vayne


Ideally day one my goal is to simply survive and start lining up conversations and how they hold up with actions. I dont necessarily always need/want to kill scum day 1 as it isnt a pressing matter yet. Its better to gather a ton of info here.

As an aside why does easy vote = not scum to you?


There's the matter of that post being "too scummy to be scum". Why would scum even post something like that? It just feels stupid. Regardless it's a good example of his overall lack of interest in scumhunting while he happily tries to make serious / "contributive" posts and to exaggerate his own contributions. His playstyle is simply full of scum motivations (blending in, survival) and devoid of town motivations (figuring out the game, lynching correctly).

##Vote VayneAuthority
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 11:01 GMT
#2129
On August 24 2014 11:27 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 24 2014 11:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:
hapa you read me as scum?


Totally.

Are you too drunk to remember the bullshit you've posted for the last 24 hours? It is not out of the realm for town-Rayn to call me scum on Day 1. It is out of the realm for town-Rayn for literally every one of your reads to be based on OMGUS, then to come in the thread and act like you haven't read the D1 lynch.



On August 25 2014 09:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Everyone else is either confirmed town (GB/Turtle), likely town from the lynch (Yamato, JAT) or mentally unstable and probably town (Rayn). So here's where I stand on these players.


So Hapa, what exactly happened between these two posts....? You never explained how you went certain scum -> probably town on rayn while nothing really changed about rayn himself.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 11:08 GMT
#2130
On August 25 2014 09:44 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2014 09:40 justanothertownie wrote:
Hapa, why is rayn town?


His behavior is consistent with him going off the deep end as town. He's not pushign objectives. He's just flailing. And that's pretty townie.


Oh there's this post that I missed. Still it's a pretty sudden change from how certain Hapa was of rayn being scum earlier in the night.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 11:19 GMT
#2131
Whatever, lynching Hapa seems like a pretty bad idea in any case. And we already have a pretty likely scum in VA to be lynched.

(as a sidenote: claiming JOAT is suspicious also in the sense that it's a rare role and unlikely to be counterclaimed)
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 12:37 GMT
#2134
Mistakes were made.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 13:06 GMT
#2139
I wonder if everyone will just flock to VA. It wouldn't be a huge surprise though in the sense that there's Mafia + SK and if VA is scum, it would be difficult for the remaining scum to change things alone - and if he's SK nobody would even care.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 13:19 GMT
#2141
You think he's town?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 13:21 GMT
#2142
One heuristic (forgot whose) is also that scum tend to avoid switching their votes around too much to avoid attention. VA would fit that since he just put his vote on Damdred at some point and never moved it.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 16:53 GMT
#2169
I'm not really into lynching Hapa. He participated in getting the Mafia GF lynched, he scumhunts constantly and he's a likely NK target N2 regardless of his alignment. We should probably lynch VA today and yeah, perhaps Onegu could also be considered. I still think Damdred's vote was awful but he's at least shown some level of thought about figuring out the game so I would put him a bit above VA or Onegu in chances of being town.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 16:56 GMT
#2173
Lol
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 17:02 GMT
#2179
GB: I think KSC is more likely SK than scum, since it feels like he's really going solo and pushing his own reads. He even bases his reads so strongly on how his reads fit with others' reads that it feels unlikely scum would pursue such a weird strategy. There's really no malicious agenda, just his own way of doing things. I'd still say he's more likely town than SK though because his thread presence is so strong. The only time I've played with a SK was when rayn was SK in one of the Titanic games, and his thread presence was really weak (he was mostly going with the flow instead of pushing anything of his own).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 17:04 GMT
#2180
On August 26 2014 01:59 turtlevine wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2014 01:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something?


Letting GB play the game for me has worked amazingly well so far, I see no reason to stop. 2 scum are dead and it's D2. As my uncle used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Then again, he was an alcoholic and beat his kids, so who knows if that guy was trustworthy.

So are you claiming Vigi or do you not have some reason to believe scum isn't behind the rayn kill


Do you even read the thread?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 17:05 GMT
#2181
On August 26 2014 02:04 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2014 01:59 turtlevine wrote:
On August 26 2014 01:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Do you plan on letting GB play the entire game for you or something?


Letting GB play the game for me has worked amazingly well so far, I see no reason to stop. 2 scum are dead and it's D2. As my uncle used to say, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Then again, he was an alcoholic and beat his kids, so who knows if that guy was trustworthy.

So are you claiming Vigi or do you not have some reason to believe scum isn't behind the rayn kill


Do you even read the thread?


Or even the setup..... Honestly.

Only 1 scum is dead so far. And the second kill was made by SK.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
August 25 2014 17:07 GMT
#2183
On August 26 2014 02:00 Damdred wrote:
I don't know if VA is scum, I don't like the timing of the claim or the skill he used but I am not positive that its a fake claim.

And everyone keeps pointing to my vote being bad (everyone being a generalization), I had thought process before and after the vote that needs to be taken into consideration. I think its a non reason to push me for lynch.

I would be ok with a hapa or a Oneg lynch today I think depending on how both respond to the thread and how Vayne continues to interact in the thread will determine where my vote goes I think.

Also Xata do you really think that hapas cases are true scum hunting? point me to a strong case I mean one that is really strong.


Well, I don't think I've yet seen a single really strong case from anyone? Except Hapa's towncase on me
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
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