EPTRoundtable: what do we think of Hf right now? Bear in mind that we are still keeping this double on Poofter and gobble right now
World Heavyweight Championship mafia III - Page 28
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Roundtable: what do we think of Hf right now? Bear in mind that we are still keeping this double on Poofter and gobble right now | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Be realistic for a minute for Christ's sake. None of the arguments you're dismissing are that bad. The "fuck you get lynched" alarms are sounding in my head, please stop making me want to act on them. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Aren't we on gooble tho | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Also important johns I'm liable to be Adkins at deadline. Can we get a couple on Gooble so I can afford to park on Poofter w/o hurting Gooble lynch? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Last check-in Fuck you Poofy get divorced | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
The one thing I am gonna say is that I wish y'all would have read the all caps and moved, but I don't even really fault that much since Poofter should have checked in earlier / tried more today. Also I can confirm the time thing was already there. No johns for that please. Battery dead, bbl. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
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I'm not bashing hard here I obviously fucked up big at EOD too. But god damn y'all. Lol | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
My new scum list is Holyflare, justanothertownie and goodkarma. I am almost positive I'm the nightkill tonight so I'm not even going to bother being coy or bullshitting around with fake reads trying not to bait a nightkill. It's not happening. I'm going down and I'm going to get out my reads and keep rereading to see what I think before the end. Why them? Holyflare has no reason to be alive right now. He was the only "townie" who had any direction on day 1 and organized a last-minute lynch, and kush got nightkilled instead of him. Kush was obvious town, but Holyflare was generally in the town pile for everyone too, and unlike kush Holyflare was a direct threat to get people lynched. Then marv gets killed last night, and while marv was also in everyone's town pile (and Holyflare wasn't as much anymore), marv had been straight up wrong on both lynches and Adkins out the whole night. The one time he really took charge and showed direction he was off. This kill makes some sense to me over Holyflare but not really; I feel like if we assume Holyflare is town he's played a better game than marv. In any case he's going to survive tonight while I, a townie who until this point had no meaningful direction in the thread, die. And that's not going to make sense, and if I don't say something now people will go "oh, no surprise there, Eden was obvtown, Holyflare lemme sheep u 2 victory" and we'll lose. Furthermore, I've called attention to it on a couple of occasions this game - Holyflare's strength of conviction in his arguments is entirely disproportionate to their strength. The most notable instance was his insistence that both Poofter and gobble were likely to flip scum, even though they had both been scumreading the hell out of each other from midway through day 1. I've been hesitant about this point to an extent because it's been in doubt; after all it had been possible that both flipped scum and Holyflare is actually some godmode town savant genius. But we now know he was wrong, and in retrospect, it's pretty fucking obvious that he was wrong. Finally... kush had to be right about somebody, don't you think? At least one player. And who were the two he was harping on? gobbledydook and Holyflare. gobble has been on everyone's scum radar for days now, nightkilling kush wouldn't do anything to save gobble. Holyflare is the only player kush was calling out and being virtually alone in doing so. THAT is why kush was nightkilled, and why we MUST kill Holyflare tomorrow. It's not the strongest case in the whole wide world, and I'm sure Holyflare will yell and berate and whine and hurl abuse at me and everyone who's sympathetic to this argument until it dies down, just like the last couple of times. Resist this. Do not give in. You will likely see his loyal lieutenant, justanothertownie, following through. They've been lockstep for most of the game and Holyflare has been wrong and will flip scum. Obviously the two of them are pushing the scum agenda together, and they've been wildly successful thus far. But they won't succeed anymore. Don't let them. Finally there's goodkarma. I'm partially sheeping Wave on this one, but the fact that both Holyflare and justanothertownie have hard-confirmed him town off of a weak meta read from Showdown mafia is super sketchy now that I know they're both mafia. And yeah, I signed off on it earlier. Big deal. I was wrong then and I'm right now. goodkarma has lurked like crazy and like Wave said, he's doing a lot of hedging and explaining for someone who's sheeping, and I feel like his arguments have been pretty weak when he's bothered to explain his reads. I'll go do a more complete filter read to see if I still agree with this when I'm done but I'm pretty confident in it right now. goodkarma also fits excellently as the final mafia because you already have Holyflare and justanothertownie pushing the scum agenda. goodkarma is the perfect third member stylistically; no one will be shocked that he's not nightkilled since he's not trying very hard at all this game, and Holyflare and justanothertownie combined have enough thread presence (before we launch our coup right here and hurl them off their balconies) to deflect any lurker lynches onto some of you lame-ass motherfuckers taking days off at a time. Speaking of, STOP DOING THAT SHIT! WE DON'T HAVE TIME FOR IT! We're going to need every single one of y'all to step up and lynch these guys three in a row if we're gonna win. It's majority lynch and you KNOW the mafia won't miss a vote. Every single one of you needs to keep stepping up. Haru was super town today, good job, keep it up. Wave is coming alive, keep shaking off the cobwebs and pushing. Obi... man I'm fuckin thrilled! I get to be friends with Cav because we're both town and he's fuckin spot on with Holyflare this game! Keep it up! And gobble, bro, I know it's hard getting scumread the whole game as a townie but keep pushing what you believe and stay pure, my friend. I'm confident in all of you as townreads at this point. I've seen something from every one of you at some point this game that's made me think "Yep, you're town," and at the core all of these reads just feel right in the gut. One day I'll look back and either laugh at myself for being terribly wrong or be self-aware enough to understand why my reads were right despite my inability to explain them, but in the here and now I've got no choice, when my other scumhunting skills have failed me this game, to run with the reads I'm feeling in my heart and hope that they're enough. We can still do this guys, even if -- when -- I'm dead in the morning. Let's get it! | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- Holyflare is wrong about goodkarma's Showdown filter. First there's the factual error: he got modkilled at the end of d1 and had one page of filter. Not "one page into d2." Second, there's the more insidious "error," the misrepresentation. Showdown had much fewer posts/player/day. We're averaging 1000 posts/day which comes out to nearly 100 posts/player/day. Showdown had 1260 posts in 6 days, so 210 posts/day. With 17 players, that's just over 10 posts/player/day. The game was MUCH quieter than this one, so the fact that goodkarma's filter is much longer in a more active game that he's survived in longer should come as no surprise and is not alignment-indicative. With regard to the quality, Holyflare has simply asserted that it's different without demonstrating how. His loyal caporegime justanothertownie echoed this sentiment, again without any backup whatsoever, and because I wasn't diligent and bought it, it became accepted fact within this game, even though it's not true. - Haru is obviously super town, look at how sincere his mad posts were. This should be obvious to any charitable read of Haru's posting today. Holyflare points out an inconsistency in Haru's play that is not alignment-indicative but looks bad and then tries to make you think it's bad. He's wrong, don't fall for this. If you need more proof, look at marv's argument for Haru being town. Way too many people were trying to kill him d1 for him to be scum. - Holyflare's argument on himself is ridiculous because he insists that the fact that some people scumread him invalidates every single part of my argument. Look at that beautiful example of what I call him out for (and he ignores). He addressed a relatively weak aspect of my argument - nightkill analysis - and said "the whole "case" falls flat on its face right there," ignoring the strongest argument which is that he oversells his arguments in wildly disproportionate fashion to their strength, which he's doing right fucking now in his rebuttal. Sorry you rolled scum this game bro, you woulda gotten away with it too if it weren't for us meddling kids. ![[image loading]](http://media1.giphy.com/media/lHswuNEWQhiMw/200_s.gif) | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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Eden1892
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Or because it's almost 4am, but I'll give him a chance to redeem this by showing us his homework instead of just asserting he has the right answer without proof... again... | ||
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Eden1892
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Cases on JAT and goodkarma are in fact primarily associations which isn't great until the dominoes start falling, but that's okay because Holyflare is the first domino and my case on him isn't built on them. Link your case on Holyflare again? Or I'll pull it up in your filter. Might help reinforce my read and/or persuade others. Anything we can get! | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On August 11 2014 12:07 Holyflare wrote: Eden i know you're mafia btw lmfao come lynch me then pussy I would love nothing more than for your cocky ass to pass on nightkilling me so you can fail to get me mislynched, dangle from a tree and watch your whole scumteam collapse on itself in your wake | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Why in the fuck did you think Poofter and gobble were a scumteam? | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On August 11 2014 12:10 WaveofShadow wrote: Like...so much of what you've written and your response to HF's rebuttal is just....wonky. Like...Haru really isn't super towny in any way. The mathematical analysis of GKs filters is really weird and ignores any potential circumstantial or style-based reasons for posting more or less. It's all coming across is pretty forced and I don't know what to make of that. I don't see how Haru's day today isn't really townie? I think you missed the point on goodkarma, Holyflare is acting like he's posting so much more and being so much more involved than in Showdown (as the only counterexample he's given to this game) and I'm just not seeing it. My argument about the numbers is that goodkarma isn't posting any more frequently, given the thread atmosphere, than he did in Showdown. HF and JAT gave gk a townread off of it and there's nothing there that I'm really seeing. Not really sure what to say to "it's wonky," feel free to elaborate | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I can go back and find more if needed but I haven't been alone in saying it so I figured the people I would need to convince would already understand what I mean. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On August 11 2014 12:16 Holyflare wrote: Is it so hard for you to wrap your brain around? Both have been super scummy all game. Both have scum read each other with no faltering since day one. Both of them had the most useless reasons to scum read each other. Looked a lot like a bus scenario. I've asked this before and you didn't answer it as far as I can tell, so I'll ask again. What scum motivation exists for two mafia to hardcore bus each other from halfway through d1? The problem isn't that it's possible but that it's pretty unlikely. It doesn't make sense for mafia to do that here. | ||
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