World Cup Mini Mafia
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ExO_
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ExO_
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That Hitler parody was....actually was it a parody? I'm not quite sure, I thought parodies were normally funny | ||
ExO_
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##Vote: IamRobik | ||
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ExO_
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##Unvote Vote: sinani206 | ||
ExO_
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Oh well I'm imperfect. I'm just plan old Argentina, a Vanilla town. Lynch me tomorrow if you wish. | ||
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On June 29 2014 10:51 IAmRobik wrote: I'm cop, got my check back. Palmar is town I don't believe you. | ||
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It's like a giant post of crap trying to disguise itself as analysis. You sure have a lot of scum reads for a game with only 3 scum in it | ||
ExO_
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Whatever it is, he's cross dressing up a storm. ##Lynch Robik | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 08:59 Rainbows wrote: I don't like ExO's response to my post at all. Trying to discredit me for seemingly no reason other than self-preservation. I see you're here ExO. You blatantly subjected yourself to being lynched, that's super anti-town if you're town. So, why? I actually don't want to lynch OO today. His townie post sticks out in my mind, keep alive for today. Haru's post on the cop claim was what I expected, and I am willing to also keep him around. I value his analysis for certain reasons and I hope he's right. Good God, in one hand you claim self preservation, in the other you claim I'm trying to get myself lynched. Which is it? I'm just a Vanilla townie, if I honestly seem like I have a mafia role to the majority of the town, then I think there's little hope for this game. | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 09:17 Cavalinho wrote: There's no chance of you getting lynched today. What's the problem? My point was that I honestly didn't think I was being lynched, and that Rainbows claiming I was subjecting myself to being lynched was just silly. | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 09:18 Rainbows wrote: You claimed that you didn't care if people lynched you. As mafia, this is an easy way of martyring to seem townie because "no scum would just say 'lynch me'". Your flinging shit at my post is an attempt to discredit my views of you as mafia, and therefore, self-preserving. It's easy for mafia to say lynch me, but of course they never mean it. Nor does town. Claiming VT isn't helping me here. I honestly couldn't give a flying fuck about helping you. You're too focused on minutia. | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 09:20 Rainbows wrote: ExO, what I'm trying to say is: Why would you even say "just lynch me I'm VT" as town. IT MAKES NO SENSE TO ME S A R C A S M sometimes you gotta think about it to understand it | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 09:26 Rainbows wrote: Love when someone does something scummy and just says it was sarcasm, trolling, whatever. WOULD PEOPLE PLAY THE GAME INSTEAD Unless you think I'm mafia, you're nitpicking non-stop about the silly things. So far your case against me is based on almost nothing. So you wanna talk about playing the game? Perhaps you should start with yourself, and stop worrying about every little thing I say. | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 09:31 Rainbows wrote: The only thing you've posted up to D2 was a vote on Sinani and a martyr post that was terrible. Most everything else was unsubstantial. How else am I supposed to judge you? Every 'little thing' is a big thing because there's nothing else to judge you on. This is why I called you a COINFLIP. Because there's so little to go on. I've been trying to prod you, to post actual reads and stuff. So do so. Robik read is a start. I don't have time for you. Try not to cry when I ignore your posts | ||
ExO_
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On June 30 2014 14:29 Tehpoofter wrote: Good news boys I'll fully caught up Yesterday's lynch was really interesting. I think flipping Cav could give us a lot of information but I'm actually on the believing his claim side of things. Townville: Tehpoofter Kush - Claiming vigi and actually seems to give a fuck this game, is reaching out to people in thread like myself to play up, never lynching. Rainbows- I liked your posts midway through yesterday and today as well as your huge post in the night. My big question is why did you stay on Cav at EoD? I still don't think you'd be anywhere near my lynch list today. Robik - Day 1 was super townie he was doing a bunch of stuff that looks scummy as fuck but from my experience with him is most likely to be town. I will say that him being scum in order surprised me so I moved him down today for a couple things in the fact that he is falling off a bit and he claimed the shot from kush before kush claimed it was his shot. Now I feel like if he thought there was only one mafia kill Palmer was less likely to be a mafia target than Koshi but still could have been a TMI slip OO - He gets into the town because reading his posts anytime he did something I found scummy he followed it up with towniness. I even have a post where I thoguht he was scum then his next post put me at ease. People who confuse me: Vivax - His thing with Palmer early day 1 felt really scummy and I didn't really care for his EoD but his conversation he had with mderg mid day as well as others trying it seemed to talk to whoever about a couple of people felt less tunneled than he was being on Palmer. Maybe he just backed off staying tunneled on Palmer because I called him out or maybe he is town idk Cop check this person imo. People that are really bad at playing cop or mafia: Cav - If you're cop stop claiming on day 1 please lord. This feels like your newbie game when you had to claim and still got lynched. I am okay leaving you alive for now because if you're cop mafia might kill you or just spam rb and if you keep claiming rb and someone else gets rb you're basically confirmed mafia so even if you're mafia mafia is out their RB ability so town can do as they please basically. People who need to have a date with a big fire: Exo - This guys vote at EoD is really weird he pops in it at odd times and I feel like he doesn't know what to say. I think this is like a classic mafia tell. They know they should talk but don't know what to say. I think that him saying he got a warning for activity and talking about how things are all spammy and he needs to write down his ideas is an easy thing for scum to do. He seems upset he has to post which I don't see as townie. Also I feel like in a world where Mderg - I always find mderg's play awkward and scummy hes in the same boat as Vivax in my opinion but I feel like vivax has done some townie things. Mderg has not his EoD was really weird I feel like he didn't really mind who got lynched. Which makes me think Cav is more town if Mderg is mafia. Haru - Instantly comes out with the vote on Cav if it turns out Cav is mafia I feel like this is exactly what he would do. I also liked someone's point that it felt like he was going to transition from a cav red to an mderg lynch which is the kind of planning I feel like scum do more than town. I lynched him last game because of his playstyle so I'm most hesitant about this read. I'm out for a bit playing dailymafia. You didn't finish your thought on me, which I find odd. But look at my play in Order and when and where and how I said things. You'll notice I didn't say a lot unless I had something to say. Mod told me he's going to kill me for inactivity on day 2 though, so here I am | ||
ExO_
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I'm gonna go ahead and man up and say I've acted immaturely. On the first day I like to sit back and watch more than talk, and make reads after day 1 voting is over and revealed. But I threw a bit of a tantrum when the mod msged me and said I was going to be mod killed. So I started acting dumb, I mean hell a lot of people did it in the Order mafia and it kinda worked out for them. anywho I'll stop, but unfortunately I'm unable to provide reads on people until I get home this evening | ||
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Looking at the end, mderg tried to switch but his vote didn't go through. If he's mafia, I don't think he tries that. I mean why? What's the incentive?* This makes me think he isn't mafia. And if Cava is mafia, the mafia team sure was willing to let him die day 1. He came extremely close. This makes me think, that Cava isn't mafia either. Ruling out these 2, myself, and the people that have already died leaves me with this list, of which I believe the 3 mafia names are contained 1) ObviousOne 4) kushm4sta 5) Tehpoofter 9) Rainbows 11) Vivax 12) IAmRobik 13) HaruRH *(in the course of investigating this list, I realized an incentive: mderg could be switching as mafia to try to kill the claimed cop, though I think it's highly unlikely.) So after going through these filters the 2 most likely Candidates for mafia in my opinion are Vivax and HaruRH. Starting with HaruRH, he really pushes the idea of killing off Cav day 2 if he doesn't die Night 1. He's also actively trying to link cav and mderg, or at least repeatedly claiming both as mafia. This isn't a solid idea in my opinion. If Cav is mafia, why does mderg switch to him at the last second? mderg could be mafia, but the way he switched votes at the last second to cav doesn't seem to me like a mafia trying to get the cop lynched. HaruRH I think wants cav lynch on day 2, have him flip town, and then wants to lynch mderg day 3 because he knows 1 of those 2 is scum. The case on HaruRH is decent, but I think there is a possibility he's a severely misguided town. A very slim possibility and I really think it's much more likely he's mafia. But I have almost no doubt in my mind that Vivax is scum. Let's start with: + Show Spoiler + On June 29 2014 05:22 Vivax wrote: Just fyi, Palmar tells his dying scumbuddies to fakeclaim before they die so theý fish a blue coutnerclaiming with their death. If you're cop don't counterclaim, keep a mental note that cav is scum, get your check off and then see if you can claim the next day. If my theory is correct, Vivax knows that cav isn't scum. He probably believes Cav's cop claim. But for public purposes, he has to appear as though he doesn't believe cavs cop claim. So he says the aforementioned. Also he's planting seeds to kill Palmar, but palmar died (likely died to town vigilante). We know palmar flipped town. I don't think Vivax was counting on this, but it does make what he said here look odd. If you read his filter he is trying hard to set up for Palmer. + Show Spoiler + On June 28 2014 17:30 Vivax wrote: I think kush and sinani are town, cause their reactions were similar to mine and cause kush is giving me some town feelz with more recent posts. I don't see anything wrong with sinani backpedaling from his vote cause I would have done the same. . Mafia calling town as town. + Show Spoiler + On July 01 2014 00:56 Vivax wrote: Is there any poor soul in here that still thinks Cava is a cop? Where have his N1 posts been when he should have been afraid of being NKed, leading to him posting about stuff that would be important before his eventual death? Because I believe cav isn't mafia, this looks to me like mafia afraid cav would be mediced on N1, and is setting up for a D2 lynch on cav (who is the cop). So those are my thoughts. I think HaruRH and Vivax are scum based on the day 1 voting, and what's been said. Everybody else is either a town read or a null read for me. I'm not sure who the 3rd mafia might be. ##Lynch Vivax | ||
ExO_
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the 1st paragraph of my above post was from when I first started analysis, and thus doesn't indicate that mafia did indeed have an incentive to potentially kill cav (claimed cop) over sinani. But I think the incentive is minor enough that mafia is okay with either one (meaning a mafia wasn't up for voting on D1) | ||
ExO_
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##vote Haru Vivax is the better choice tho :/ | ||
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On July 02 2014 05:04 Vivax wrote: Go into detail I want to hear your full reasoning for why he wouldn't ever drop that meaningless vote a mafia. Okay, I explained this earlier, but theres no way he and cav are both mafia, because mderg nearly got cav killed day 1 with that late vote switch that didn't count. So if cav was mafia mderg wouldn't have switched. So if you assume mderg is mafia and cav isnt then why is mderg switching to cav at the last second? mafia that don't have their plan in order by the last 60s are really sloppy. I dont believe as mafia that merg is switching that late, mafia were already voting and sticking by that point. mderg was a concerned town reacting to 2 last minute votes | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:27 IAmRobik wrote: ExO could be sincere and he and mderg are mafia together and cava is town, but meh if this is true why wouldn't I just hop on cav bandwagon now? it'd be too complex, mafia trying to meta game that much instead of taking an easy chance to lynch push a town cav lynch are bound to have it backfire | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:30 IAmRobik wrote: I do...but if we lynch Cava and Cava flips cop then ExO is almost certainly mafia based off of the fact that he brought the logic that mberg doesn't do that as scum -- it doesn't necessarily make mderg scum for switching late. How would I be mafia? I think cav is town and mderg is town, and stated such several hours ago | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:34 Cavalinho wrote: [i]Why? Why am I shady?[i] Nobody fucking follows my reads and then says I'm shady because I'm not playing. Are we just disregarding every single thing I say this game? I think you should stay calm. Mafia wants you to feel isolated. At the very least I'm listening to you | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:43 Vivax wrote: Mderg if you are indeed town, then pin a guy who you think is trying to profit from the situation by defending you, for example. this is a scummy as fuck question to ask. If hes town, town would profit from defending him, no? | ||
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On July 02 2014 05:51 Vivax wrote: I didn't find an important answer in your filter, so I'll ask it now: Why did you switch last minute to Cava at all if you previously said he shouldn't be lynched? Me and Koshi's votes? Holy shit its obvious why. He saw 2 votes at the last second for sinani and thought mafia were jumping on sinani giving town no time to react. So he tried to react | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:55 Vivax wrote: Given how hard Exo is defending this guy and pushing for haru last minute I'm being paranoid that maybe we should follow that advice. I've been pushing haruh for at least the past 12 hours, I think more. though I'd much rather push you. I think your a clever scum player | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 05:59 Vivax wrote: Besides mderg, your story is this: You say Cav shouldn't be lynched cause claim. You vote sinani, Exo votes sinani, you see Exo voting him and try to switch to Cava. This just doesn't make sense to an outsider and if you're town I hope you understand why. it makes perfect sense as town. a town on day 1 has zero information, and if you think your reads as town are 100% perfect on day 1 you are either stupid or overconfident. He saw last second votes and panicked. mafia wouldnt panic | ||
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On July 02 2014 06:04 Vivax wrote: Why should he have panicked if you voted for the guy he thought should be lynched?????? Your confidence into him being town is what's scummy. His panic was because I voted last second with hardly an explanation. And somebody else did too. it looked like a last second mafia votes. thats why the switch at the last second. there was no time to wait for explanations. | ||
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On July 02 2014 06:16 Vivax wrote: I think tomorrow I'll be pushing for either Cava or Poofter who were both on Koshi's list you are scum. koshi was a vanilla town. VT reads can be wrong. as mafia you're trying to look good by pushing for people on a confirmed towns list. But there is stroner evidence than simple reads, and thats reads from votes. D1 reads shouldn't trump everything we've seen since then | ||
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On July 02 2014 06:32 Vivax wrote: I am currently trying to figure out where your discussion focus lies in this game. You posted this list earlier: Over the course of the lynch decision taking place however you strongly focused on either pushing me and haru or defending mderg and what I find lacking in here is your interest into the other guys you didn't feel like clearing yet. Simply put, you lack a natural portion of doubt and what I also find lacking is analysis of these people. And that it's lacking is concerning especially now. If I take me and Robik as example, we didn't only get stuck on either haru or mderg but also considered lynching Cava (in Robik's case) or changing the read on Haru (in my case). I am willing to consider the possibility that you are town, but first you have to explain to me how you read people in the list you haven't adressed or analyzed yet. you mistakenly assume I didn't analyze everybody. I read or at least scimmed through every sinle persons filter in that list. But I'm not going to post what can I find that suggests innocence, because I believe its ineffective. Mafia can look innocent all the time. Instead I look for evidence of scum, and by far the strongest evidence is on you and harurh. And by the looks if it, theres gonna be even more today when I get home and can analyze. | ||
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These are the 6 people that voted for Sinani. If Cav is mafia (I really don't think so) then all of your mafia should be found in this list, because losing 1/3 mafia on day 1 would be horrible for mafia. Considering Cav is on the list, and mderg is gone, that leaves Robik/Poofter/Harurh. 2 out of those 3 would be mafia. This is ONLY in the case that cav is mafia. I don't believe he is. But if he is, then cav +2 out of Robik/poof/Harurh are mafia. Let's see what happens night 2, but tomorrow lynch vivax. If I die in the night, remember I was heavily pushing Vivax and Harurh, and they wanted that voice silenced. I really hope we can pull it together town | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 09:54 kushm4sta wrote: hopefully they kill vivax so i can redeem myself this game by figuring out the scumteam I've opened the door for you, but only you can walk through it | ||
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On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote: By PoE, if my gut towns are town, then the scumteam lies in 3 of: Cav ExO TP OO Two "ghosts", one genuinely scummy guy, and the scummy cop claim. Not bad if you ask me. We lynch into that tomorrow, imo. Especially if I wind up dead tonight, you listen to this list. You lynch one of those guys. This is where we begin towns comeback, and as mafia are flipped then we re-evaluate our town reads if they don't die at night. You are wrong, and I can nearly prove it sinani206 (6): IAmRobik, Tehpoofter, Cavalinho, HaruRH, mderg, ExO_ If cav is mafia then 3 mafia need to be in this list. Otherwise mafia is really dumb for almost letting cav die. I don't think mafia is willing to take such a big risk on day 1. It'd make no sense to do so. That means 3 mafia are in this list here. the only people that fit your criteria and this list are me, TP, OO. I am not mafia. That means no matter what, your read is wrong. I'm going to read the rest of your post in more detail now, but you are wrong with the scum reads, period. | ||
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So I beg you to reconsider. Let's consider the scenarios and what it'll mean for this night (i'm working this out as I type it) 1. Cav is mafia -- Mafia will not kill him tonight, presumably lives to see Day 3 2. Cav isn't mafia -- Mafia leave him alive, and have a fake cop claim tomorrow. Try to push the vote onto Cav, using the information they have as mafia to bolster their fake cop. 3. Cav is mafia -- Mafia kill Cav. If Cav is the cop, mafia may kill him tonight for fear that he can point out mafia tomorrow. Considering the scenarios, if Cav is mafia we know exactly who to lynch based on day 1 votes (there is an extremely unlikely scenario in which Cav is mafia, and he nearly died night 1 because of mafia members voting their own guy. I think this is so unlikely that it's not worth considering.) This would mean Robik, Poofter, and HaruRH are the only remaining possibilities for mafia, and we can work that out. The question is, if Cav isn't mafia where does that leave us? I think it leaves us with a clear target in Vivax. Read Vivax's filter. He is constantly asking others to answer questions for him. He is trying to follow in Koshi's footsteps, because we all know Koshi was town right? Except Koshi was VT, his read might've been wrong. But Vivax wants the association with the townie. Notice how he leaves out trying to push Palmar non-stop, then BAM look who died night 1? The big bad wolf (according to Vivax), Palmar the townie (who I might add pushed HaruRH). + Show Spoiler + On July 02 2014 06:32 Vivax wrote: I am willing to consider the possibility that you are town, but first you have to explain to me how you read people in the list you haven't adressed or analyzed yet. On July 02 2014 05:43 Vivax wrote: Mderg if you are indeed town, then pin a guy who you think is trying to profit from the situation by defending you, for example. On July 02 2014 06:09 Vivax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On July 02 2014 06:08 ExO_ wrote: His panic was because I voted last second with hardly an explanation. And somebody else did too. it looked like a last second mafia votes. thats why the switch at the last second. there was no time to wait for explanations. And now we know it was totally a last second mafia vote son *(<------ Look how that turned out) *my own addition to the quote On July 02 2014 06:06 Vivax wrote: rainbows? lolno. OO looks too chill with all his jokes imo. Poofter, Exo and Cava or something like that imo. On July 02 2014 02:08 Vivax wrote: I'm just wondering what's stopping you to call him mafia and try to get him lynched like you tried to lynch sinani (aggressively) after you spammed him a liar. On the other hand I don't see many reasons for why your vote is on haru. Why are you voting haru and not mderg? On July 01 2014 21:27 Vivax wrote: OO what about page 4 and 5 of Haru's filter is there that is supposed to make him scum? Can we lynch one of Cav, mderg, Exo or TP? *(<-------2 Townies in this list) On July 01 2014 22:48 Vivax wrote: Tell me how you feel about this Haru wagon. Do you notice anything? Please tell me I'm not the only one that sees this for what it is, scum play. And the more I go over the day 2 votes, the more I'm convinced you might be scum with him. he was the 4th (tying) vote on HaruRH, and you were the 6th. Neither of you ever voted HaruRH once. But I'm not 100% yet. I need to read more. I started off trying to analyze the possible scenarios, and maybe the possibility of having vigi shoot cav, so the town could unite instead of bickering over cav tomorrow, despite the risks this would inherently carry. But the more I read the more I'm convinced You're Scum team is HaruRH, Vivax, and either Rainbows or Robik or poofter. And I'm leaning rainbows right now | ||
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*your scum team is I'm sure there are other typos, and I kinda started typing really fast at the end there. please excuse them | ||
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But I'm not 100% convinced you are the 3rd mafia yet | ||
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We do have a town Vigi right? It's hard for me to imagine scum having a kill and a scum vigi. | ||
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On July 02 2014 13:23 Tehpoofter wrote: so they can't lynch you if they kill you in the night. I'm in the process of responding to rainbows right now, but quickly: I used lynch interchangeably with kill. They'll try to kill me in the night, and try to lynch cav the next day. | ||
ExO_
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On July 02 2014 13:21 Rainbows wrote: ExO my reasoning for Haru being town has nothing to do with cav being mafia. You didnt read it. also i literally said cavs alignment had nothing to do with my read on you and poofter... its the reaction to his claim regardless if its true or false. You really did not read my post or cant comprehend it. why am i awake rn I did read it. Let's begin shall we: On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote: HaruRH The lynch yesterday leaves me worried. I thought most of or all of the scumteam was on him. So I dnu, meta would suggest that he is town. Cav / poof both on him. Cav / poof / exo scumteam? Maybe OO. I haven't done any really hard analysis of Haru, which is terrible of me because he was a main wagon yesterday. My gut says town, scum don't like saying "I don't do reads on D1, fek off son" to a townie. That just creates pressure and puts the spotlight on. There are a few things I don't like about his filter, but for now, don't lynch tomorrow imo. HaruRH (4): ObviousOne, mderg, Cavalinho, ExO_ 1 of these is confirmed town. And if you don't want to commit to cav being mafia, then that means you are saying Both OO and I are mafia. Doesn't that sound a bit odd though? Haruh was well in the lead, then slowly but surely momentum built up on mderg. We know mderg was a townie. But somehow you think every townie in the game, without help from mafia (because at least 2 mafia are voting here right?) started a train on another townie? Even more unlikely is the idea that all 3 mafia manage to vote on one townie, while the town trains on another townie. But as unlikely as it seems, let's consider if cav is town (Which btw is all I've ever said. I'm not sure if he's cop or not, but I believe he's town. Which makes it likely he's cop, b/c why would a town lie about having a good role like that? [Except god damn ritoky in Order, but I digrees]. If he's now cop, isn't it odd that you'd have a big problem with people believing he's the cop? Yet the only other person you offered as potential scum, tehpoofter, is somebody you have pegged as believing him. You either think cav is scum, in which case the votes on HaruRH make no sense, or you think he's cop and think the people that believe him are scum precisely for believe him. It doesn't add up. What's interesting though, who are the only 2 people you say "dont lynch tomorrow?" Take a wild guess ladies and gents: On July 02 2014 10:36 Rainbows wrote: Do NOT lynch Vivax if he is still alive. HaruRH don't lynch tomorrow imo. I think scum team is HaruRH, Vivax, and rainbow | ||
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On July 02 2014 13:43 Tehpoofter wrote: kk sounds good. I'm behind btw. IF you were going to summarize the last 5 pages for me how would you do it? I find it odd that you're just willing to back me if you haven't read the last 5 pages. But: During lynch time, Vivax was pushing mderg pretty hard. He kept saying his last minute vote switching on day 1 didn't make sense (mderg failed his vote switch btw. At the last second he tried to vote cav but it was too late). But I argued it made perfect sense, because of the last second vote on Sinani from myself (and all of the last second voting in general), it looked like a panic town trying to avoid mafia saving. Vivax repeatedly tried to push that point away tho, and continued to try to push that mderg had to be mafia for his strange voting at the end of the day. I pegged Vivax earlier in the day, as well as HaruRH, and Vivax was a staunch proponent of lynching mderg. Well then mderg flips town. Since then both Vivax, as well as rainbows have both either said or implied the people who defended mderg are mafia, because they'd know he's town. Look at my post above, it's ridiculous to think that. I don't want to go rehash my entire first scum read on Vivax and HaruRH, but basically I already thought both were mafia. Both tried pushing cav, and then were on the mderg wagon. Rainbows and Vivax never voted HaruRH once. All of these people are then trying to constantly misdirect people back on to the guys that defended mderg. I think Vivax basically saved his teammate HaruRH, with rainbows in tow, and now they're going to try to redirect the focus on to the townies who tried to save mderg. I also think they're very likely to try to push cav tomorrow. The only reason they wouldn't is because I've said they would try to do this several times since the end of day 1. I'm not very good at summaries, but I think that's an okay account. Anything else you want to know about in particular? | ||
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##Vivax | ||
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If we are claiming today Ill say what I said at the start, I'm Argentina the Vanilla Town | ||
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On July 03 2014 06:06 Tehpoofter wrote: Now I have to go read instead of coasting to the win :/ Exo so Vivax your top one eh? Who is with him you think? Harurh is almost certainly with him. for 3rd mafia I heavily lean Rainbows, but im not at the same level of confidence in him as with vivax and harurh | ||
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##Vote Harurh Still want vivax more, but this is fine for now | ||
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On July 03 2014 06:40 Vivax wrote: ##Vote ObviousOne not that my opinion of you will change at this point, but is this anything but an OMGUS? | ||
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On July 03 2014 07:06 Tehpoofter wrote: I'm on the vivax train of justice. Hop on. Get on Harurh for now. If we can all agree to go vivax we can switch, but for now we should sit in the same guy. | ||
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On July 03 2014 07:17 Tehpoofter wrote: I Think Haru is town though. I can consolidate later but I find it odd you don't think vivax is gaining steam. There are more votes for Harurh. I voted for vivax then switched to harurh because others voted harurh. Vivax is my #1 scumread though so ill happily switch back to him, if everyone is willing to do so. We should not be divided though. thats how mafia can fuck us | ||
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Everybody please, if you're voting for HaruRH change to Vivax ##Unvote ##Vote: Vivax | ||
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On July 03 2014 09:05 kushm4sta wrote: exo can you summarize your case against vivax, or link to a quote of yours that summarizes it? That post is pure rhetoric. I want specific evidence that he is scum. k sec. well actually let me ask how much do you want? I made a case on him in the middle of day 2, and have been adding on to it since. If I quote it all, it would be quite long, where do you want me to start? | ||
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On July 03 2014 09:06 kushm4sta wrote: why exo... are you crazy?? we lynch scum or lose. we sooo need 2 days. Because I'm extremely confident, and think I'm right with my scum reads. With the way I've seen mafia on TL (in my limited experience) people like to get wishy-washy and change their minds over the course of the day the longer it goes on. Right now we have the ability to lynch the scum vivax (or Harurh in my opinion, but Vivax is the best choice) and I don't want him to magically talk himself out of it. Plus I really want to know if I was right, so I'm impatient | ||
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What makes you think he isn't? Because he's the scummiest person in the game right now, and he's thrown pocket sand in the eyes of everybody here. | ||
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On July 03 2014 10:02 kushm4sta wrote: lol exo i love your metaphors. vivax can't be scum because look at all the shit he wrote trying to figure out the game. That is what is hard for scum to do, and vivax is doing it so much. If vivax is scum that would be the single greatest scum performance I've ever seen. He isn't trying to solve the game, he's constantly asking other people to do it for him. | ||
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On July 03 2014 10:18 Rainbows wrote: You misunderstand. Yesterday there wasn't more than my vote and vivax's vote on him, nobody switched off of Haru / Mderg. It feels like haru and mderg were the two town wagons and vivax/me had something but no scum wanted to touch their scumbuddy. People don't have to be actively saying 'no, don't lynch him' for it to be resisted. You are scummy and you know it. You know where vivax was? On mderg: because mderg had to be scum for his day 1 lynches. Even after I explained the perfectly logical reason why it could happen, he insisted it was illogical unless he was scum. He is scum, and you are scum. You're hoping to paint me as some kind of mafia for defending mderg, because I obviously knew he was town right? Only I had to figure it out through analysis. I even presented that analysis on my day 2 post accusing vivax and harurh of being mafia. If we keep listening to vivax, we will kill a townie today, and lose. Rainbows is scum and trying to bring in another perspective to divert attention away. And that's what's going to keep happening. If we don't lynch Vivax or Harurh or Rainbows this game is over. | ||
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I was ignored there. And here we are again, my day 2 post saying Vivax and Harurh are scum is ignored. I wasn't as willing to commit then as I am now. I've seen additional evidence pile up, (particularly with the way vivax was before mderg lynch.) Until somebody shows me a case Based on evidence that includes voting evidence (not just bullshit reads) then I can't see how it could be anybody else but Vivax/Harurh/Rainbows | ||
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That's all I see from Vivax. Shield your eyes, he'll blind you if you let him | ||
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On July 03 2014 15:14 Vivax wrote: If you're town now is your chance to muse with me about possible scum, all you have to do is give me an imaginary townread. If you're town then that is the correct play, and not constantly try to get people to vote for me with motivational posts with no arguments behind them whatsoever. You are the possible scum. I can't imagine it being anybody else. I've presented my arguments several times, which part didn't click that I need to repeat? | ||
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On July 03 2014 15:21 Vivax wrote: The part where I answered to and picked apart your case. This did not occur lol. I'll start on the point that I think is the most obvious, if you are a townie then you would've realized mderg was innocent. Especially since you were so highly suspicious of Cav. At most only 1 of them could've been mafia, and I think the case was horrible for both. But you turned a blind eye to everything that was presented and pushed hard for his townie lynch. If you can defend this adequately, I'll re-exam you. Until then I'm not going to be swayed by a panicking mafia | ||
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On July 03 2014 15:31 Vivax wrote: By that logic everyone on mderg must have been mafia. Really you're so bad. Everyone else wasn't actively debating with me about it. You were arguing with me specifically, about mderg's vote not making sense. It made perfect sense. I can't guarantee anybody else read our exchange, but I know you did, and I know your reasons for voting mderg were horrible, scum reasons. I await your flip, scum | ||
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On July 03 2014 15:38 Vivax wrote: Again, for the whole thread to see and compare with your current reads: My current 3 scum reads are Vivax, HaruRH, Rainbows, doesn't this support what I've been saying more than it detracts? lol | ||
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mderg (6): Tehpoofter, HaruRH, kushm4sta, IAmRobik, Vivax, IAmRobik, Rainbows or do you seriously think I'm going to believe that 2 or less scum are in this list | ||
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On July 03 2014 15:50 Vivax wrote: This is bullshit cause you expected me to accept your arguments for him being town or else I'm scum, and if your arguments should be able to convince me, then they should also be able to convince anyone else. You're trying to put it as if your arguments for him being town were tailored just to be used against my push. It doesn't work that way. If your arguments aren't convincing for all guys on the mderg wagon, it doesn't mean that I'm scum for being one of them just cause you were talking to me and not to the others. If you have good arguments for a guy being town, and let's say 3 guys don't believe into them, why do you only pick one of them to be scummy for it? After all, they should be good arguments for everyone reading them without an agenda, but they evidently weren't. You're dodging my question. I'd like you to explain to me what happened from your end of things. If you disagree with any of the statements, tell me which one 1. My arguments was that mderg and cav couldn't both be scum, because of what happened at the end of day 1, with mderg nearly switching his vote to get cav killed. 2. You pushed cav on day 2, heavily implying he's mafia. (not everybody else did this to the degree you did in my opinion. 3. You then pushed mderg. 4. I explained that both mderg and cav couldn't be mafia. We then had an exchange pointing out the explanation for mdergs last second vote switch. So from my point of view, you pushed votes on 2 people, 1 of which you knew had to be confirmed town. How do you explain that? At what point did you stop thinking cav was mafia, and mderg was instead the mafia? | ||
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On July 03 2014 16:03 Vivax wrote: I already linked you to my response to your case, that's where I have shown why I disagreed with your argument for mderg and Cav both being town. no no no, not them both being town, but at least one was town. Do you disagree that it was clearly presented that at least one was town | ||
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On July 03 2014 16:13 ExO_ wrote: no no no, not them both being town, but at least one was town. Do you disagree that it was clearly presented that at least one was town On July 03 2014 16:20 ExO_ wrote: If you don't disagree that at least one had to be town (indicated by the day 1 antics) then at what point did you decide cav was innocent and mderg scum? | ||
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On July 03 2014 18:16 HaruRH wrote: ??? I don't understand your questions at all. ONLY at your point of view is there is at least 1 town in between mderg and cav. So who is confirmed town? Nobody is confirmed town here. Cav's claim reeks of 'you still cant kill me dumb town'. I don't think town, or even cop in this case, would think this way? How can that bolded an honest opinion? On day 1, mderg switched his vote to cav, just barely after time was called. mderg nearly killed cav on day 1 with his lynch vote, it he had posted seconds earlier it would have killed cav. Both cannot be mafia together, because then a mafia would've passed on the final vote to kill a mafia on day 1. How else can you interpret that? I'm at a complete loss as to how you would not understand this. Since both cannot be mafia, at most one can be mafia. So how can you possibly accuse cav of being mafia, and then vote mderg accusing him of being mafia? this is exactly what vivax did on day 2. Accused cav of mafia, and then voted and accused mderg of mafia, ignore the evidence I presented that proved it was impossible to think both. What about that do you not understand? Please explain to me how you thought both could be mafia, because on day 2 it was obvious that at most only 1 out of those 2 was mafia, if any at all. | ||
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*Both cannot be mafia together, because then a mafia would've submitted the final vote to kill a mafia on day 1 | ||
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##Vote: HaruRH Switching this now, so the 3 mafia can't be the first to 3 to create a tie. Town should switch to Harurh, since we can't see to get the votes out for vivax. | ||
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On July 04 2014 07:43 Rainbows wrote: Confidence and conviction isn't always town. It's hard to say, its a gut read. Think about it. Im town, if exo is town he possesses the same info as me. He draws completrly different conclusions. Something is wrong, because occams razor suggests that either he has different info orbdifferent goals. This is why its hard to play town. because you cant always tell ifbsomeone genuinely thought of somethijg differently or they are scum. I 100% agree that we are separate teams. I am town you are mafia Are poofter and OO both claiming medic? | ||
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Kush is presumed vigi, because nobody else has claimed it, and a vigi hasn't died. I'm inclined to believe kush. That leaves either OO or cav as mafia. I still can't imagine Cav as mafia, and while OO is a possibility it doesn't fit to me. Rainbows looks much worse in my opinion. And I still heavily think Vivax and Harurh. I think safest lynch tonight is Harurh, but the only person I feel 100% is town is Kush. | ||
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@.@ | ||
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On July 02 2014 13:13 Tehpoofter wrote: DR Banks checking in why do I need to save you over CAv? poofter what was btw? Just you joking around? | ||
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On July 04 2014 14:43 Vivax wrote: This is all from Exo's presumption that scum was on mderg and not on Haru cause haru is mafia in his eyes. But yeah, I'm aware that he has only shown interest into pushing me, Haru and rainbows as possible scum. If he and Poofter are scumbuddies, Exo is forced to react now, so sit back and enjoy the show as he abandons his aggressive push on me and starts "considering" that Poofter is scum. At least I hope that it is the situation we're in. As for people townreading you for no reason, point me to who you mean specifically cause I don't wanna sift through all filters to find out right now. Harurh is still mafia in my eyes. But there are 3 votes on poofter, and Kush is the only person who is confirmed town for me. So I'm not sure what to do. I don't feel confident that poofter could be mafia, but it's not impossible. | ||
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On July 04 2014 15:09 ObviousOne wrote: Vivax (1): HaruRH (2): ObviousOne (2): Vivax, HaruRH, Tehpoofter (3): kushm4sta, Rainbows, ObviousOne Cavalinho (0): push vivax all day, relent and switch to haru? sick scumplan i know what you're up to guys game solved gg I've been pushing both all day, go read my filter. I've pushed vivax harder because I was confident, but I'm not sure anymore. A lot of things are happening. If you honestly think that voting between the 2 people I've thought at day 2 and beyond though is a scum plan, then lol this game is probably lost. | ||
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I'm questioning Vivax, even though I was certain at the start of the day he was mafia. It's actually making it really hard to trust in my own reads now because I was certain, like 100% certain Vivax was mafia 24 hours ago...and now I'm really doubting myself. I'm going to sleep in a couple hours, but I'll be awake for EoD. Hopefully I can sort out a few things in my head before then. | ||
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it scares me to think everybody votes for the same person. I think it could be gg right here. | ||
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On July 05 2014 05:35 kushm4sta wrote: everyone has to vote for oteh same person... this is mylo. that means if people spread their votes, scum can just last minute switch to save scum and win ##Unvote ##Vote poofter I'm not convinced its right. But if this is what we've choosen, so be it | ||
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On July 05 2014 05:44 Cavalinho wrote: Not if town has a doc/cop setup. The only reason we got screwed so early is because I played like shit and I had to claim to save myself. isn't that how that works though? Cop claims early, doc stays hidden and protects, and we follow your lead? | ||
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Kush claiming vigi Cav claiming cop OO claiming doc If we had a cop/doc setup there's no way we'd have a vigi too right? | ||
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On July 05 2014 05:48 kushm4sta wrote: ONE CLAIM IS FAKE EXO... WE HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT FOREVER No I understand that, but now we have cav saying mafia has a role blocker. If you assume cav is telling the truth, would 3 mafia with 1 of them being roleblocker be balanced with 3 blues? | ||
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Good Job Kush, sheeping you all the way from here on out | ||
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On July 05 2014 14:40 ObviousOne wrote: I think exo is the lynch tomorrow. Then decide between Haru and Cav. Why am I the lynch tomorrow exactly? | ||
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On July 05 2014 15:31 ObviousOne wrote: I'm not sure yet maybe you can help me pick from the other two while I sleep I'd say Harurh still feels scummy to me. | ||
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I'm still thinking HaruRH though. | ||
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On July 06 2014 18:57 Vivax wrote: I'm not sure if you realize how crazy your reads look all the time to a majority of people who keep reaching entirely different conclusions than you. This could be cause you can't get behind a townie's perspective and is one of the reasons you look scummy. You could also be a downright awful townie but I have a kinda hard time believing that. For some reason you take the cop check at face value without drawing conclusions from it. Cause then that means they roleblocked OO to kill kush at any cost, taking the risk that the alleged cop checks 1 of them. Try to draw conclusions from that. If I'm assuming cop check is legit, wouldn't I also assume that OO's claim isn't legit? (making him mafia). There's no need to roleblock OO if he's mafia I'm not sure exactly what you are trying to get at, could you explain it to me? | ||
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I have no idea which is lying. For a cop Cav has been entirely worthless, but if hes scum and calling rainbows town im inclined to believe him. Harurh hasnt posted in forever, and I dont know what to make of it. if cav was lying then we only had a 1-shot vigi and a doctor? That doesnt sound good to me. Why again cant we have kush the 1-shot vigi, a doctor and a cop? is it more plausible that we only have a doctor? | ||
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"Nobody will be notified of any medic saves, rb's, jk's etc. If you are a vig and you get rb'd your bullet will be refunded." While it could just be for the doctor, this to me suggests there is indeed a mafia role blocker. And I don't know, I think Kush D1 was a decent check. If I remember correctly he was claiming vigi and on day 1 I think it's impossible to get a very good read. Hindsight being 20/20 it's easy for you to say it was obvious he was town, but I'm not so sure it was. If not rainbows on N3 then who? Who would be the better target, except actually maybe for you (unless he inherently believes you about being medic) | ||
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On July 07 2014 13:58 Rainbows wrote: ExO's posts went from day 3: KILL VIVAX/HARU/RAINBOWS GOGOGO to day 4: shrug, i dunno. Dat scum lynch so demotivating huh? I backed off towards the end of day 3 because I started thinking I might be wrong. Now I'm not sure how to interpret everything. I mean look at the way poofter went out, I couldn't read that at all and up until the moment he died he was insisting he's innocent. So without kush I don't have a clue who could be town or mafia. The closed setup is messing with my mind :/ | ||
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You better hope to God that Harurh is mafia, because if you kill me and he isn't, the game is over. I'm town, and while I think Harurh is mafia his absence is weird. He just might be town. Whoever the mafia is here is manipulating everybody, wouldn't surprise me if it was Vivax/Rainbows. | ||
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On July 07 2014 14:22 Rainbows wrote: Cav don't vote haru. Either you or ExO dies today. and if haru gets modkilled thats a bonus. So guess where I want your vote. Voting wise, On poofter he's the 4th lynch vote. This doesn't really mean much as that can swing either way imo. Normally I'd say the more suspicious votes are myself and cav, but I don't think it's that simple at this point. I voted late because I didn't think he was mafia, what if Cav did the same? As far as cav, I'm having a hard time believing he could make a fake claim like that day 1 and get away with it if he were mafia. This is a lot of meta reading in a sense, but I can't imagine the host making a game without a power role like cop. I can imagine a game with a cop/doctor/1-shot vigi and 2 regular mafia 1 roleblocker. So without any other claims, and nobody contesting his claim, I can't see him as mafia. It just doesn't add up to me. The alternative in which he is mafia, leaves us with 1 doctor/1-shot vigi and 3 regular mafia. Is that a more balanced setup? I can't say it is. However this all leads us to Cav saying rainbows is town. So if I believe Cav is town, rainbows is town, I'm town, that leaves OO, Vivax, and harurh. Considering this possibility leads to the idea that OO is lying about his claim. And I guess lack of a doctor makes more sense to me than lack of a cop. Based on the votes of today, Rainbows is town. If Cav isn't lying, that's confirmed with his claim: if he is lying then why is Rainbows really pushing for his death. So I can't see Cav and Rainbows together. This means Rainbows is town. I feel like if I'm going with my gut about the cav read, this leaves Vivax/OO or OO/Harurh, or Vivax/Harurh. I'm going to say Vote:Lynch OO But really there's just so many possibilities. What if I've been fooled by cav? If that's the case then it could be Cav/? It could be anybody. With Harurh dying to inactivity presumably (even with this vote I think) then we need to get it right tonight. So I think OO is the best bet, but I'm so full of doubts that I can't say it with conviction. | ||
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That shouldn't be struck through, only the part about rainbows. | ||
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On July 08 2014 02:00 Rainbows wrote: And ExO the development of your reads made no sense when Poofter flipped scum. I don't see how you went from VIVAX/HARU 100% scum +1, and then when poofter flips scum, you shrug and say I don't know. It doesn't make a lick of sense to me if you're town. because I didn't think poofter was scum. I was sure it was Vivax Harurh + you or an off chance of somebody like OO, but I didn't think poofter. It meant that my reads were wrong to some degree, and that meant I might be wrong about the whole thing. It's like believing 100% in something, then having it turn out not true. Makes you question everything else you believe in. | ||
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I can't believe we only had a doctor and a 1-shot vigi against a roleblocker and a cop | ||
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On July 08 2014 07:00 Vivax wrote: You could start by explaining why your lurk all day claiming your reads are weak but show up at the last second to save a mafia roleblocker. you'll note I tried to vote OO much earlier but it didn't count because of format (HF noted as such in one of his posts). So I just fixed the format so my initial vote was counted | ||
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I think the closed setup had a lot to do with it though. The fact that there wasn't a cop let Cav's cop claim just completely slide, and I couldn't see a world in which doctor+1 shot vigi is balanced vs 2 mafia + mafia roleblocker. So because there was nobody counter claiming cav, I believed him | ||
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But another mafia member was not. A mafia member had their vote on cav during the day, and it almost cost them. I can't believe how risky a play that way, it so very nearly backfired. And because I assumed mafia wouldn't let that happen, it skewed my entire view of the game. It all starts with cav nearly dying on that day, and me thinking mafia surely wouldn't have let it be that close. Live and learn I guess. I'm really not sure who the mafia is out of Vivax/Rainbows but they played very well. If I had to guess I'd say Rainbows, but a part of me kinda hopes it's Vivax: that would mean my read from day 2 had some merit. But tomorrow I'll probably be voting Rainbows as it seems to me he's the more likely candidate. He's going to push me call GG and all this bullshit, Vivax goes along with it, and then mafia wins. Oh well | ||
ExO_
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On July 09 2014 08:47 Rainbows wrote: ##Vote: ExO I'd rather lose to scum Vivax than scum ExO. If I yolo lynch Vivax and I'm wrong, I don't think I'll live down the observer QT afterparty, who will no doubt have a field day with my ass. There are a few things that give me pause in Vivax's filter, but hopefully they are just explained by him being a cautious townie rather than scum. If he bussed cav day 1 that's a boss play. He's interacted with flipped scum as much as I have, which looks pretty good for him. ExO if you're town I'm sorry. Most of the evidence points in that direction. Voted Sinani over Cav day 1, and haven't wanted to lynch both flipped scum at all. Energy level day 3 was approx. over 9000 at day 3 mylo with no flipped scum when the wagon was on haru, but as we lynched tehpoofter and cav the energy level depressed when it should have been a chance to reevaluate reads and admit you were wrong at some point. Either you're mafia or Vivax / cav / poofter made it look really good by pseudo-bussing vivax day 3 and hoping on your back. Also your read on me has made no sense over the course of the game I think. First I was scum for not wanting to lynch Vivax / Haru and instead lynch into poofter, then I wasn't scum, now I'm probably scum when chosen between vivax and myself. If ExO is scum then I'm taking full postgame cred for my night 2 post which had all 3 scum in it going into mylo, and I am this games townhero. If Vivax is scum then Koshi get's 100% postgame cred for nailing cav/poofter before he died n1, and keeping vivax in the neutral zone, while having me and exo as town. Koshi should get cred regardless for the cav/poofter thing so koshi is townhero #2 if exo scum. Most of what you say is true whether or not I flip scum. Koshi's stuff is accurate. My reads on your going back and forth (much like my line of thought). The following of my wrong conviction on day 3. And If you are a town we are both going to lose, having a mafia choose between us. Right now, Vivax's posting makes him seem more town to me, but he could just be a really good scum player. I know you want your read on night 2 to have all 3 scum in it, thus making you some kind of great player. But it's confirmation bias. I made a lot of bad plays this game, but I was the first to lead on my ideas and was really hesitant on the ideas of others. My entire game was influenced by day 1, and the fact that Cav almost got lynched, and this means 1 mafia was voting for cav. It skewed my entire thinking, because it's hella sloppy for mafia to nearly let cav die like that. That's what's fucked up my entire thinking for this whole game. Please if you are a townie, prove it to me. Right now it looks to me like you posted a bunch of things that are going to be inherently true sprinkled with a bit of ego (Oh look how right I was night 2!), so it looks to me like you are mafia trying to convince Vivax to just go with the flow. But if you are the town, I implore you to reconsider your vote. You will lose the game. If you're the town you're going to say at the end, "but I had no way of knowing!" but I'm telling you right now if you're the town you're going to cost us the game by not thinking it through. If Vivax is the townie (where I'm leaning at this point), then I hope you can convince me you're the town and Vivax is trying to gloat in some way over what he's perceives as a won game. | ||
ExO_
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But I could see a case on me, despite the fact that I think mafia is very lucky to be able to make it (because of day 1 almost losing cav). What convinced you that it's rainbows over me? | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
It's odd to me that he'd encourage Vigging Cav...The only one that make sense is if they new vigi was only 1 shot, or if they knew Kush was vig...and as it turns out Kush claimed the vig kill on palmar night 1...So I guess its plausible that he encourages the vigging of cav and during the night cav just roleblocks kush. Says Kush is showing signs of scum, which again if mafia knows he's vig (but aren't aware of only single-shot) then that's probably a good direction to push. Sets up a situation to push me as mafia if cav flips mafia, but overall my day 1 play was horrible so I could see him making that argument as town or mafia. I don't know what conclusions to draw off the 2nd quote though. "kushm4sta, ObviousOne, HaruRH, Vivax is a terrible list to lynch in to.." but I can't see as mafia how that's really helping him too much, as those are all confirmed townies. I know mafia like to call townies town, but what incentive does he have to say don't lynch these 4 townies, it just increases chance we'll lynch one of the mafia right? | ||
ExO_
United States2315 Posts
*The only way that makes sense is if they knew vigi was only 1 shot | ||
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If you were the mafia why come in here and vote rainbows? it'll create suspicion from his end and the results are less predictable than just voting me. So perhaps I'm wrong, I've been so on several occasions during the course of this game. But if you are mafia you're taking an incredible gamble on voting rainbows instead of me, and it doesn't seem to make sense. So I think you are town and rainbows is the mafia. Guess we'll find out soon enough | ||
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On July 11 2014 07:04 Keirathi wrote: GG everyone. Also, we played Fantasy Mafia in the obs thread. It was fun. Thanks for organizing it, Amiko! Edit: Hey wait, Amiko! Shouldn't everyone who picked Poofter as Striker have 6 points? He votes sinani day1, mderg day2, and vivax day3. They were all opposite alignment from him! (Not that it matters, Chromatically picked him too, but it would put me at 12 points instead of 8!) Edit2: Oh, it seems like you're doing 1 point per vote on opposite alignment? But bottom of the spreadsheet and the post in Obs QT both say 2 points per vote! whats fantasy mafia and how does it work xD | ||
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