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On June 27 2014 08:34 Snickers wrote: So anyone thought that YKZ is trying to save Lazer so much because if lazer flips scum we would all most likely go after him. His push style has found a weakness. Also the comment sloosh made about we will take about it later is prty scummy. One of the many reasons I am lynching Lazer.
Do you honestly think I wouldn't have bussed Lazer by this point as scum? ._. Look man, I'm here to talk with Lazer because I have a townread on him. I'm pretty sure he's gonna flip town and tomorrow we're at LYLO. We need to pump this guy for all the info we can get out of him in the next half hour before he flips. Obviously none of you are even remotely interested in saving him, and if my goal was simply to look good, I'd find great reasons to vote LM. If I were scum with him, I'd bus him, win solo, and then spend every game bragging about how good I am at scum and how I'm willing to bus awful teammates. When it comes down to it, LM is likely to flip town. You guys are all just wrong and I'm right.
This lynch is my fault for failing to convince you guys, since I'm the smartest player here. The responsibility falls solely on me, the town leader, for failing to corral the necessary votes to save LM.
LM: I am sorry. I really am. But you can't afford to dispair now. Keep talking.
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On June 27 2014 08:02 Lazermonkey wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 07:59 YouKnowZhou wrote:On June 27 2014 07:55 Lazermonkey wrote: And everyone is gone... Well, if it's just you and me, LM, do you have any questions or directions for me? You've seen my read list and you know what I'm thinking about, and I promise to 100% not ignore your input if you flip town. I think the list is good. The only thing is that atm I'm not sure Koshi is the best lynch. Release and SlOosh recent actions make them look really bad. I would probably say that Release is on par with Koshi for best lynch with SlOosh slightly behind.
I undertand what you're sayinga bout Release and Sloosh, but look at it this way. Right nwo, this wagon has basically been set in stone all day. Underailable, as it were. Release and sloosh at least are hanging out and chatting. They may wrongly think the two of us are scum, but the fact of the matter is, as scum they wouldn't feel obligated to hang out here and talk with us. It doesn't automatically make them town, but look at Kosh. He clearly is satisfied with this lynch and doesn't even want to try to move the twon forward. He doesn't stand out in your mind as doing bad things because he's not doing anything at all.
When you take into account the deafening silence of the Koshi, and the fact that most of his effort is spent defending himself and whining, isn't he the most likely to flip scum?
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On June 27 2014 08:41 Lazermonkey wrote: The fact that Release and SlOosh simply did nothing is also telling I'd say. No matter how much scum you think I am, there is still a point in keeping up the work. It seemed like SlOosh even wanted to apear contributing by pushing me when it was obvious I was getting lynched. I said numerous times that I was cool with dying. I was giving out reads and asked them to ask question but SlOosh (and Release) just didn't give a fuck at all.
OK, but at least these guys are actively not giving a fuck. Look at it like this. Koshi in the past 24 hours has:
asked chez for checks, defended against my case on him, voted you, said he was a vt, asked a question, and that's it. That's all he's done. sloosh and release may be grating on the nerves but at least they're playing the game. Koshi seems less suspicious simply because he's posting less; an excellent strategem
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On June 27 2014 08:45 Snickers wrote: Ok since you two are so sure that each other are town, Why not be voting release instead of koshi? I do not understand that. I have been here giving Lazer a fair chance I feel and it is seriously annoying when he says I have bad logic. I have been the most logical person in this game. Notice how late I threw my vote on him. Within two hours of deadline. I am almost 100% positive you are both scum since you are voting koshi instead of release. You guys probably thought koshi would be the easier to get followers.
Yeah dude there's like basically no chance LM isn't getting lynched today. Look, LM is alive for 10 minutes. ask him a question and assume he's town for 10 damn minutes, and play the game. If he flips scum, you lose nothing. If hef lips town, you get the opinion of a conftown on something. Do it. You have nothing to lose, and everything to gain.
On June 27 2014 08:48 Release wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 08:46 Lazermonkey wrote: Also, look at Release's argument. He basically refuses to rethink his read on you (YKZ) based on what happend D1. I mean, maybe he is always like this? But that just really, really bad. And you only bring this up now? I've maintained that I thought he was mafia throughout the game. Yeah, you just love my cases too much not to vote VE with me
On June 27 2014 08:48 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 08:46 YouKnowZhou wrote:On June 27 2014 08:41 Lazermonkey wrote: The fact that Release and SlOosh simply did nothing is also telling I'd say. No matter how much scum you think I am, there is still a point in keeping up the work. It seemed like SlOosh even wanted to apear contributing by pushing me when it was obvious I was getting lynched. I said numerous times that I was cool with dying. I was giving out reads and asked them to ask question but SlOosh (and Release) just didn't give a fuck at all. OK, but at least these guys are actively not giving a fuck. Look at it like this. Koshi in the past 24 hours has: asked chez for checks, defended against my case on him, voted you, said he was a vt, asked a question, and that's it. That's all he's done. sloosh and release may be grating on the nerves but at least they're playing the game. Koshi seems less suspicious simply because he's posting less; an excellent strategem Don't forget, Koshi also waits to vote.
You think he was waiting to see which way the wind was blowing?
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On June 27 2014 08:51 Snickers wrote: You guys have no clue how to think logically if you ask me. After the game, I should post the general idea of a philosophy paper I wrote my senior year in high school. You guys assume way too much. That is almost rule one when it comes to logically thinking. You may be scum so this post is pointless but w/e.
Yeah well I didn't ask you. When I want literally the worst possible opinion that a human being can make, I'll ask you your opinion on my logic or philosophy. If you want my opinion, I'll send you a stick figure I drew in elementary school, I'm sure you'll have lots to learn from it since it's so much higher level than you.
Seriously dude, interact with LM and pretend he's town for like 7 freakin minutes will you?
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On June 27 2014 08:55 Snickers wrote: Seriously dude, you aint funny. The panic is real.
4 minutes. LM could flip town. this is a guy you have a green check on. Just ask him one real question, something, anything. he'll be conftown soon.
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On June 27 2014 08:56 Snickers wrote: Lazer what do you want me to do? And here is my last request. Why are you voting koshi over release?
he's voting koshi because I am. He thinks release is a better lynch, but he'll do anything to up his chance of survival, which is still 0. haven't you been reading the thread?
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Fare well my gentle friend
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LM, I promise your words will not go to your grave with you. I'll win this for you. You did a really good job of staying on-topic even as you died, which few players can do. Your death will not be a vain.
New night, same deal: leave me questions and they'll be answered by the end of the night.
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Preamble - Throwning down
Look guys, there are a lot of things that could have gone down with night actions, and maybe it's possible Sloosh is the GF or he was a scum player who was framed, or some other weird set of circumstances (snickers insane and LM and I were framed, etc). But when it comes down to it, we should not be lynching into green checks today. We shouldn't have lynched into green checks tomorrow. Assuming there's no cc for snickers (and at this point, I'd be pretty surprised if there was, and suspicious of any cc of snickers), we should not lynch into his green checks today, and we shouldn't lync snicks. I've decided we should lynch Release over Koshi, for reasons I'll explain later in this post.
It looks like during the night people (including people who thought I was scum defending scum LM...) have decided I am scum and want to lynch me. Here's what I gotta say to anyone who seriously wants to lynch me:
You're welcome to try. You will fail. I'm better than you; I'm more convincing, I'm more experienced, I'm one of the best players on TL Mafia, and this is LYLO. I won't lie down and say "well, treat me as conftown after I flip" because if I flip, it's game over. The fact of the matter is, I'm an extremely convincing player, and I'm only MORE convincing when I can use real facts to defend myself and accuse my enemies.
Chapter 1 - All Systems Green
First off, here are reasons not to lynch me or sloosh tomorrow (assuming snicks gets shot, which he will). Imagine for a moment, you're not in this game, but you're observing it. It's D4, and the cop reveals 3 green checks. For some reason, the entire game decides to lynch one of his green checks, and one of his other green checks hard defends the other one to the point that people start thinking the 2nd guy is scum too. The first guy flips scum, and D5 the cop is dead and people want to lynch the 2nd greencheck now.
If you saw town systematically lynching through the greenchecks of the flipped cop, your first thought would be "wat". Your second thought would be "man, I wonder what these guys are thinking. There's no way I could possibly be so awful when I play this game". The fact of the matter is, if you lynch me, you will be that town who decided the best pool of people to lynch into on D4 and D5 LYLO was the pool of people the cop got green on. You will never live it down.
In retrospect, lynching VE was a mistake for a number of reasons, but the biggest of them was that despite being pigheaded, strident, and generally disagreeable and ragey, VE is in fact highly intelligent. Sure, he didn't like LM, but I am sure if he were alive his advice wouldn't be "let's systematically lynch the greenchecks" because honestly that plan is awful.
"Now wait, Blazinghand", you say, "I'm not saying we should lynch all the greenchecks. I'm just saying that yesterday we needed to lynch LM because he was scummy, and you were scummy for defendhing him, your scumbuddy. Now, he flipped town, so you're scummy for defending someone who was lynched and flipped town. You HAPPEN to have a greencheck on you, but that won't stop us from lynching you." Ok, look, you can have whatever reason you want for systematically lynching through the greenchecks. Maybe you think Snickers is insane, which is possible. But boy, after the first one flips green, you should probably stop and think "maybe, just maybe, we're totally wrong about this thing. Maybe it's actually a bad idea to do this."
I'll admit, on some level I want to lynch slOosh. He could be scum. But the fact of the matter is, there's a green check on him. If it comes down to it, we can deal with him in 3-player LYLO after lynching his buddy. If release flips GF, then we can be assured that both Sloosh and I are town, since this game is exceedingly unlikely to have both GF *and* Framer (since cop would be effectively useless, and anti-role, then). If release flips Framer, then we can cast doubt on the green checks for reasons related to him potentially framing me or Sloosh as scum. If Release flips Goon, then the last scum is either GF or Framer and we also probably can't trust the checks.
Do you see what I'm getting at here? Unless you believe in a BH/Sloosh scumteam, there's at least one scum amongst Koshi/Release, and if we lynch that scum first (similar odds there), then we can go into LYLO potentially with tons of info. Our odds aren't worse, and they're potentially much, much better. I'd like to point out the non-trivial chance that Me and Sloosh are both town and the green checks (which so far have been 100% accurate) are accurate on us.
Don't lynch into the green checks tomorrow. At the endgame, you know what's gonna happen, right? VE will be in here and say "wow, BH is such an idiot for lynching me, because without me there was nobody to tell town not to be idiotic. somehow you jubjubs lynched only into the cop's green checks? Are you kidding me? And BH, you talk about how "pro" you are at mafia but you and one of your top townreads got lynched while you had green checks on you. I can't believe this."
And he'll be right, too. As the only experienced, intelligent player here, it's my job to lead the town. I failed yesterday, but I won't fail today.
Intermezzo - my townreads
Snickers: we all know snickers is town unless cced so we're not lynching him, ever. Sloosh: although the VCA wiggles its eyebrows suggestively, there's a greencheck on this guy. Also, despite whatever uselessness he does, I feel like his awfulness is distinct enough he's likely to be town. Also, that little VCA chart thing impressed me. Sloosh is in zero danger of being lynched. If he's scum, he doesn't need to post a freakin VCA chart, all he has to do is yell that I'm scum (as he had been doing for days...) and hang out and post a tiny bit. Mostly though it's the green check. Chezinu: as a matter of principle I don't try to make reads on chez and just treat him as town. If I'm the cop, I check him. The fact that snickers never checked chezinu but instead checked like sloosh, is frankly awful. If our blues misplay and fail to shoot or check chezinu all game, I'm willing to accept a loss any time he rolls scum. I don't even want to policy this guy ever because honestly there are bigger fish. I will not lynch chezinu unless someone claims a scum check on him, or it's like 2-1 lylo and there's a conftown, and it's me vs chez or something like that where I know he's scum.
Chapter Two - Vote Count Anal
Sloosh, like the reliable greencheck he is, provided a color-coded VCA chart for us. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=22454200
The Day 1 lynch is pretty straightforward. 7 votes on 27nb, 3 on mderg, 1 on me. Snickers we can consider town because of his cop claim, so we have to ask ourselves: Did all scum unnecessarily vote together on 27nb? Sure, I was pushing that wagon all day and maybe mderg hopped one arly ish, but if the third scum is Chez, Koshi, or Sloosh, they really did NOT have to be on 27nb to save snickers. no, in my opinion the 7-4-1 result indicates a wagon that did not need all 3 scum to be on it. Even in the event of all 3 scum being on 27nb, I expect at least one scum to not commit to lynching a VT over his buddy when it's so lopsided and jump off. Since everyone on mderg is town, we can reasonably expect Release to be scum from D1 VCA.
Looking at the D2 wagon, I see two possibilties. Since it would have been trivial for Koshi, Release, or Chez to jump on to me (maybe not in terms of explanation, but that 1 vote would have swung it even without LM voting), I immediatley wonder if sloosh and snickers were somehow scum and voted together with mderg to try to save him. That being said, Snickers is town and there's a greencheck against sloosh. If I were scum going into D2 I'd want to bus mderg, as he was the counterwagon to a D1 wagon on a VT, and was pretty close in the running. None of the people who voted mderg D1 are dead during D2, except of course 27nb, so you can expect him to at least be a candidate D2. So who was added to the mderg wagon, who voted mderg D2 and not D1, who might have been scum looking for a chance to bus? Well, I see Release and Koshi on that wagon, which again lines up with what I said in the preamble. These guys saw an opportunity to bus a goon and went for it. This is exceptionally true for Release. Release voted me D1, when I wasn't a legit wagon, instead of mderg, who was. On D2, you see Release voting mderg, instead of me, the guy he wanted to lynch D1. Remember, during D1 27nb had not yet flipped town, so during D2 Release should have been more suspicious of me. Yet he moves his vote to mderg, who is probably on the way out as the counterwagon to 27nb D1. In my opinion, this discrepancy in voting indicates that Release's motivations are not thought through from a perspective of "I want to lynch YKZ" but "I want to lynch mderg, but only when it's clear he's going to be lynched".
The only part that doesn't fit for me is why Release wouldn't swap over to me, given that he voted me D2. I really think he'd take the opportunity to save his teammate and look consistent with his D1 play. Still, There were SOME shenannies around the deadline, but he must have known mderg would vote me. The evidence of the green check by snickers on sloosh is bigger imo than the evidence of "scum on the mderg wagon could have swapped". Perhaps it would look too bad to swap from a scum wagon to a town wagon late in the day, and they figured mderg was going down eventually anyways.
D3 and D4 were both pretty onesided. To all of you who voted for LM D4, it's worth noting that Artanis and VE, whose votes couldn't swing the wagon anyways during D3, ended up voting Koshi over LM, yet somehow we ended up lynching LM who had a greencheck on him ._.
Coda - From Beyond the Grave
Due to VCA from D1, I believe Release to be a better target for today's lynch than Koshi. However, I would like to bring in some support from Lazermonkey, who I think we can all agree is town (I assume; a green check wouldn't convince you "players" (I use the term generously) that he was town, perhaps a townflip from the mod may not).
Here, briefly, is LM's case on Release, supplemented with my own words I've encorporated phrases from the following posts, to make one hybrid case.
I find Snickers fake-claiming unlikely. Partly because of what YKZ pointed out earlier and partly why would you claim to have a town read on me at this state of the game as scum?
Chez and Snickers are likely town (and also are the guys that will get shot, thus wasting lynches on them is bad). SlOosh I dislike but his green check means that he is likely town. This leaves Release and Koshi.
On June 27 2014 06:25 Release wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 05:49 Snickers wrote: Release is starting to look scummy again. Someone mentions his name, bam he's in the thread. Because it feels like I make a post then everyone ignores it (and therefore my posts are meaningless). When someone mentions my name, they want my opinion and therefore my posts are not meaningless. Interpret that however you please. Pretty much YKZ's D1 is what makes him scum. Because when the thread is filled with tunneling, OMGUS, and is primarily focused on a single battle, asking questions leads us to consider other options. I agree that his passiveness is noteworthy, but even with that, I do not think that it outweighs what I perceive to be his information-gathering agenda. + Show Spoiler +having said that, if he says absolutely nothing until the end of the day and you do flip town, that would make me feel that he is suspicious to similar levels as that which I felt about Snickers D2 (which in hindsight was just timing issues). Afk complete peace out is not tolerable, even more so than 48 hour dinner since YKZ actually did something prior to D2 deadline
First part seems like you are justifying the fact that you aren't giving out reads in a very bad way. That is at least how I interpret it.
So basically, YKZ being wrong=>YKZ is scum. Do you really believe this logic yourself. Also, have you even considered what he has done since then?`He was the fucking dude that got mderg lynched.
Are you not reading or refusing to understand? I never said that asking questions and such was bad. It seems like you're really stretching to give a scumread and not be helpful and at the same time call other people scum. Look at it this way: If you were town, you' dbe willing to play the game. Yet here you are, stonewalling my precious time left alive.
Now that Chezinu has unclaimed... Chezinu fake-claimed so I don't have a red check on myself. Therefore, you should unvote me. The list for people that we are allowed to chose from (to kill) is
-Release -Koshi
These guys are most likely the scum.
On June 27 2014 08:01 Release wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 07:45 YouKnowZhou wrote:Release, you've said (link) multiple (link) times (link) over the past few days that you want to lynch one of me/lm first, then if that person flips town, lynch Koshi. Here's my question for you: If LM flips town, would you lynch me next or Koshi? What if LM flips scum? If these answers are different from each other, why? What about Koshi do you like that makes you not want to lynch him over LM? Right now we are 7 alive, with 2 scum. If we mislynch today we go into 3-2 lylo. If you have 3 scumreads and worried you might be wrong, and that 2 of them are town and 1 scum, the order you lynch them in matters a lot. So why are you eager to lynch me over Koshi today, but would reconsider if and only if LM flips town? I don't understand your thought process here. Please respond before the flip. At this point, since Koshi has not returned since the Korea Belgium game, and he is probably asleep (earlier than he has been in past days), his lack of input is more harmful as compared to you who is always around the deadline. I'd probably lynch Koshi first (but of course I would have to consider his next day input). Since the end of day 2, LM's play seems to be characteristic of try to get someone lynched (particularly SloOsh whom I thought was unreasonably thrown into his scumlist when Koshi questioned him, and when LM made his bigger post. You have been on my scumlist since Day 1. I thought that was awful play, and I still think it is awful play to ignore everyone and just hide behind "Kenpachi rule is God" Yhea, getting people lycnhed is totally not something town would want to do.. Owait. This push on YKZ is awful. That's just how the guy plays, he wants to lynch his targets. We all do, youc an't call him scum for that. bad reasoning. You're scum.
Looks like I won't live.
I'm honestly pretty sad right now. I know that there are 2 scum on my wagon but it also means that there are 3 dumb townies on my wagon as well.
As for my wills:
-Anyone thinking that YKZ could be scum after this is so so so so so wrong. And stupid.
-Snickers, just do whatever YKZ tells you to. Your logic sucks but thats something we can take in postgame.
-Koshi/Release is the next lynch. Maybe SlOosh if he really fucks over.
-Chezinu and Snickers town.
Why Release? The fact that Release simply did nothing is also telling I'd say. No matter how much scum you think I am, there is still a point in keeping up the work. It seemed like SlOosh even wanted to apear contributing by pushing me when it was obvious I was getting lynched. I said numerous times that I was cool with dying. I was giving out reads and asked them to ask question but Release just didn't give a fuck at all. He didn't ask questions, let me speak, etc. He just wanted me to flip so he could get to lylo.
@YKZ: I mean, I would like to believe that about Koshi. But he could just be bad town. Like I said, I don't really know Koshi's meta but I really think you should check him. Does he generally play like this, ie super defending and passive? Or is he actually good? Also, while Koshi is lurking SlOosh and Release seems to be trying to contribute but in reality just tunnel. I still think Release is just as scummy as Koshi.
He's the best lynch for tomorrow
+ Show Spoiler +
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quick guyz let's lynch all the sane detectives green checks, that totally makez so much senze
no wait let's lynch Release.
##vote Release
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Oh, come on, I see the view counter going up. COME AT ME. COME AT ME BROS
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Chez what's your read on release? Your rarely mention him. What do you think of my case re: him
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On June 27 2014 09:27 slOosh wrote: I believe a YKZ lynch is most sensible yes. While I was wrong on Lazermonkey, I believe he is wrong on YKZ. There is plenty of reason to hard defend a lynch on town if the lynch will still go through. On June 28 2014 13:04 slOosh wrote: ##Vote YouKnowZhou
Chezinu plz
This from a guy who thought an LM/YKZ scumteam was so likely. People even drew associative tells! Though did it only briefly.
Look, sloosh, you me and chez need to vote together. If one of us doesn't vote with the other 2, we lose. This means you need to get in here and explain your case in enough summarized detail for chez to understand it (since you must have a townread on chez). This will give me an opportunity to respond. I'll convince you I'm town, and we'll lynch release.
So please; elaborate on "Chezinu plz" for me and chez.
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On June 28 2014 10:33 Chezinu wrote: PS: Can I have another tldr Chez tier? Cause yeah... I won't read.. I never read snicker's block either.
>Release' D1 vote opts out of the discourse. It's also unlikely all scum voted 27nb D1. Release voted "not 27nb" but also voted "not mderg" (you'd expect at least 1 scum not to be on that 27nb wagon, since not all 3 were needed to save mderg; every player currently alive voted for 27nb day 1 except release, who voted ykz)
>Release vote on mderg D2 makes sense as a bus. Release voted YKZ D1, but on D2 he moves to mderg even though it's between YKZ and mderg. Also, for a while it was between YKZ and all kinds of other players
>Release ignores and basically doesn't engage with the dying LM despite being in thread
>Some Process of Elimination stuff: Don't lynch BH/Sloosh because of green checks; don't lynch chez. Between Koshi and Release Release makes more sense since he wasn't on the 27nb wagon D1
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On June 28 2014 16:03 slOosh wrote: So you are saying Koshi is the last scum? Why the switch to Release all of a sudden after going on about Koshi?
On June 28 2014 08:59 YouKnowZhou wrote:Preamble - Throwning downLook guys, there are a lot of things that could have gone down with night actions, and maybe it's possible Sloosh is the GF or he was a scum player who was framed, or some other weird set of circumstances (snickers insane and LM and I were framed, etc). But when it comes down to it, we should not be lynching into green checks today. We shouldn't have lynched into green checks tomorrow. Assuming there's no cc for snickers (and at this point, I'd be pretty surprised if there was, and suspicious of any cc of snickers), we should not lynch into his green checks today, and we shouldn't lync snicks. I've decided we should lynch Release over Koshi, for reasons I'll explain later in this post. It looks like during the night people (including people who thought I was scum defending scum LM...) have decided I am scum and want to lynch me. Here's what I gotta say to anyone who seriously wants to lynch me: You're welcome to try. You will fail. I'm better than you; I'm more convincing, I'm more experienced, I'm one of the best players on TL Mafia, and this is LYLO. I won't lie down and say "well, treat me as conftown after I flip" because if I flip, it's game over. The fact of the matter is, I'm an extremely convincing player, and I'm only MORE convincing when I can use real facts to defend myself and accuse my enemies. Chapter 1 - All Systems GreenFirst off, here are reasons not to lynch me or sloosh tomorrow (assuming snicks gets shot, which he will). Imagine for a moment, you're not in this game, but you're observing it. It's D4, and the cop reveals 3 green checks. For some reason, the entire game decides to lynch one of his green checks, and one of his other green checks hard defends the other one to the point that people start thinking the 2nd guy is scum too. The first guy flips scum, and D5 the cop is dead and people want to lynch the 2nd greencheck now. If you saw town systematically lynching through the greenchecks of the flipped cop, your first thought would be "wat". Your second thought would be "man, I wonder what these guys are thinking. There's no way I could possibly be so awful when I play this game". The fact of the matter is, if you lynch me, you will be that town who decided the best pool of people to lynch into on D4 and D5 LYLO was the pool of people the cop got green on. You will never live it down. In retrospect, lynching VE was a mistake for a number of reasons, but the biggest of them was that despite being pigheaded, strident, and generally disagreeable and ragey, VE is in fact highly intelligent. Sure, he didn't like LM, but I am sure if he were alive his advice wouldn't be "let's systematically lynch the greenchecks" because honestly that plan is awful. "Now wait, Blazinghand", you say, "I'm not saying we should lynch all the greenchecks. I'm just saying that yesterday we needed to lynch LM because he was scummy, and you were scummy for defendhing him, your scumbuddy. Now, he flipped town, so you're scummy for defending someone who was lynched and flipped town. You HAPPEN to have a greencheck on you, but that won't stop us from lynching you." Ok, look, you can have whatever reason you want for systematically lynching through the greenchecks. Maybe you think Snickers is insane, which is possible. But boy, after the first one flips green, you should probably stop and think "maybe, just maybe, we're totally wrong about this thing. Maybe it's actually a bad idea to do this." I'll admit, on some level I want to lynch slOosh. He could be scum. But the fact of the matter is, there's a green check on him. If it comes down to it, we can deal with him in 3-player LYLO after lynching his buddy. If release flips GF, then we can be assured that both Sloosh and I are town, since this game is exceedingly unlikely to have both GF *and* Framer (since cop would be effectively useless, and anti-role, then). If release flips Framer, then we can cast doubt on the green checks for reasons related to him potentially framing me or Sloosh as scum. If Release flips Goon, then the last scum is either GF or Framer and we also probably can't trust the checks. Do you see what I'm getting at here? Unless you believe in a BH/Sloosh scumteam, there's at least one scum amongst Koshi/Release, and if we lynch that scum first (similar odds there), then we can go into LYLO potentially with tons of info. Our odds aren't worse, and they're potentially much, much better. I'd like to point out the non-trivial chance that Me and Sloosh are both town and the green checks (which so far have been 100% accurate) are accurate on us. Don't lynch into the green checks tomorrow. At the endgame, you know what's gonna happen, right? VE will be in here and say "wow, BH is such an idiot for lynching me, because without me there was nobody to tell town not to be idiotic. somehow you jubjubs lynched only into the cop's green checks? Are you kidding me? And BH, you talk about how "pro" you are at mafia but you and one of your top townreads got lynched while you had green checks on you. I can't believe this." And he'll be right, too. As the only experienced, intelligent player here, it's my job to lead the town. I failed yesterday, but I won't fail today. Intermezzo - my townreads Snickers: we all know snickers is town unless cced so we're not lynching him, ever. Sloosh: although the VCA wiggles its eyebrows suggestively, there's a greencheck on this guy. Also, despite whatever uselessness he does, I feel like his awfulness is distinct enough he's likely to be town. Also, that little VCA chart thing impressed me. Sloosh is in zero danger of being lynched. If he's scum, he doesn't need to post a freakin VCA chart, all he has to do is yell that I'm scum (as he had been doing for days...) and hang out and post a tiny bit. Mostly though it's the green check. Chezinu: as a matter of principle I don't try to make reads on chez and just treat him as town. If I'm the cop, I check him. The fact that snickers never checked chezinu but instead checked like sloosh, is frankly awful. If our blues misplay and fail to shoot or check chezinu all game, I'm willing to accept a loss any time he rolls scum. I don't even want to policy this guy ever because honestly there are bigger fish. I will not lynch chezinu unless someone claims a scum check on him, or it's like 2-1 lylo and there's a conftown, and it's me vs chez or something like that where I know he's scum. Chapter Two - Vote Count AnalSloosh, like the reliable greencheck he is, provided a color-coded VCA chart for us. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=22454200The Day 1 lynch is pretty straightforward. 7 votes on 27nb, 3 on mderg, 1 on me. Snickers we can consider town because of his cop claim, so we have to ask ourselves: Did all scum unnecessarily vote together on 27nb? Sure, I was pushing that wagon all day and maybe mderg hopped one arly ish, but if the third scum is Chez, Koshi, or Sloosh, they really did NOT have to be on 27nb to save snickers. no, in my opinion the 7-4-1 result indicates a wagon that did not need all 3 scum to be on it. Even in the event of all 3 scum being on 27nb, I expect at least one scum to not commit to lynching a VT over his buddy when it's so lopsided and jump off. Since everyone on mderg is town, we can reasonably expect Release to be scum from D1 VCA. Looking at the D2 wagon, I see two possibilties. Since it would have been trivial for Koshi, Release, or Chez to jump on to me (maybe not in terms of explanation, but that 1 vote would have swung it even without LM voting), I immediatley wonder if sloosh and snickers were somehow scum and voted together with mderg to try to save him. That being said, Snickers is town and there's a greencheck against sloosh. If I were scum going into D2 I'd want to bus mderg, as he was the counterwagon to a D1 wagon on a VT, and was pretty close in the running. None of the people who voted mderg D1 are dead during D2, except of course 27nb, so you can expect him to at least be a candidate D2. So who was added to the mderg wagon, who voted mderg D2 and not D1, who might have been scum looking for a chance to bus? Well, I see Release and Koshi on that wagon, which again lines up with what I said in the preamble. These guys saw an opportunity to bus a goon and went for it. This is exceptionally true for Release. Release voted me D1, when I wasn't a legit wagon, instead of mderg, who was. On D2, you see Release voting mderg, instead of me, the guy he wanted to lynch D1. Remember, during D1 27nb had not yet flipped town, so during D2 Release should have been more suspicious of me. Yet he moves his vote to mderg, who is probably on the way out as the counterwagon to 27nb D1. In my opinion, this discrepancy in voting indicates that Release's motivations are not thought through from a perspective of "I want to lynch YKZ" but "I want to lynch mderg, but only when it's clear he's going to be lynched". The only part that doesn't fit for me is why Release wouldn't swap over to me, given that he voted me D2. I really think he'd take the opportunity to save his teammate and look consistent with his D1 play. Still, There were SOME shenannies around the deadline, but he must have known mderg would vote me. The evidence of the green check by snickers on sloosh is bigger imo than the evidence of "scum on the mderg wagon could have swapped". Perhaps it would look too bad to swap from a scum wagon to a town wagon late in the day, and they figured mderg was going down eventually anyways. D3 and D4 were both pretty onesided. To all of you who voted for LM D4, it's worth noting that Artanis and VE, whose votes couldn't swing the wagon anyways during D3, ended up voting Koshi over LM, yet somehow we ended up lynching LM who had a greencheck on him ._. Coda - From Beyond the GraveDue to VCA from D1, I believe Release to be a better target for today's lynch than Koshi. However, I would like to bring in some support from Lazermonkey, who I think we can all agree is town (I assume; a green check wouldn't convince you "players" (I use the term generously) that he was town, perhaps a townflip from the mod may not). Here, briefly, is LM's case on Release, supplemented with my own words I've encorporated phrases from the following posts, to make one hybrid case. I find Snickers fake-claiming unlikely. Partly because of what YKZ pointed out earlier and partly why would you claim to have a town read on me at this state of the game as scum?
Chez and Snickers are likely town (and also are the guys that will get shot, thus wasting lynches on them is bad). SlOosh I dislike but his green check means that he is likely town. This leaves Release and Koshi. Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 06:25 Release wrote:On June 27 2014 05:49 Snickers wrote: Release is starting to look scummy again. Someone mentions his name, bam he's in the thread. Because it feels like I make a post then everyone ignores it (and therefore my posts are meaningless). When someone mentions my name, they want my opinion and therefore my posts are not meaningless. Interpret that however you please. Pretty much YKZ's D1 is what makes him scum. Because when the thread is filled with tunneling, OMGUS, and is primarily focused on a single battle, asking questions leads us to consider other options. I agree that his passiveness is noteworthy, but even with that, I do not think that it outweighs what I perceive to be his information-gathering agenda. + Show Spoiler +having said that, if he says absolutely nothing until the end of the day and you do flip town, that would make me feel that he is suspicious to similar levels as that which I felt about Snickers D2 (which in hindsight was just timing issues). Afk complete peace out is not tolerable, even more so than 48 hour dinner since YKZ actually did something prior to D2 deadline First part seems like you are justifying the fact that you aren't giving out reads in a very bad way. That is at least how I interpret it.
So basically, YKZ being wrong=>YKZ is scum. Do you really believe this logic yourself. Also, have you even considered what he has done since then?`He was the fucking dude that got mderg lynched.
Are you not reading or refusing to understand? I never said that asking questions and such was bad. It seems like you're really stretching to give a scumread and not be helpful and at the same time call other people scum. Look at it this way: If you were town, you' dbe willing to play the game. Yet here you are, stonewalling my precious time left alive.
Now that Chezinu has unclaimed... Chezinu fake-claimed so I don't have a red check on myself. Therefore, you should unvote me. The list for people that we are allowed to chose from (to kill) is
-Release -Koshi
These guys are most likely the scum.
Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 08:01 Release wrote:On June 27 2014 07:45 YouKnowZhou wrote:Release, you've said (link) multiple (link) times (link) over the past few days that you want to lynch one of me/lm first, then if that person flips town, lynch Koshi. Here's my question for you: If LM flips town, would you lynch me next or Koshi? What if LM flips scum? If these answers are different from each other, why? What about Koshi do you like that makes you not want to lynch him over LM? Right now we are 7 alive, with 2 scum. If we mislynch today we go into 3-2 lylo. If you have 3 scumreads and worried you might be wrong, and that 2 of them are town and 1 scum, the order you lynch them in matters a lot. So why are you eager to lynch me over Koshi today, but would reconsider if and only if LM flips town? I don't understand your thought process here. Please respond before the flip. At this point, since Koshi has not returned since the Korea Belgium game, and he is probably asleep (earlier than he has been in past days), his lack of input is more harmful as compared to you who is always around the deadline. I'd probably lynch Koshi first (but of course I would have to consider his next day input). Since the end of day 2, LM's play seems to be characteristic of try to get someone lynched (particularly SloOsh whom I thought was unreasonably thrown into his scumlist when Koshi questioned him, and when LM made his bigger post. You have been on my scumlist since Day 1. I thought that was awful play, and I still think it is awful play to ignore everyone and just hide behind "Kenpachi rule is God" Yhea, getting people lycnhed is totally not something town would want to do.. Owait. This push on YKZ is awful. That's just how the guy plays, he wants to lynch his targets. We all do, youc an't call him scum for that. bad reasoning. You're scum.
Looks like I won't live.
I'm honestly pretty sad right now. I know that there are 2 scum on my wagon but it also means that there are 3 dumb townies on my wagon as well.
As for my wills:
-Anyone thinking that YKZ could be scum after this is so so so so so wrong. And stupid.
-Snickers, just do whatever YKZ tells you to. Your logic sucks but thats something we can take in postgame.
-Koshi/Release is the next lynch. Maybe SlOosh if he really fucks over.
-Chezinu and Snickers town.
Why Release? The fact that Release simply did nothing is also telling I'd say. No matter how much scum you think I am, there is still a point in keeping up the work. It seemed like SlOosh even wanted to apear contributing by pushing me when it was obvious I was getting lynched. I said numerous times that I was cool with dying. I was giving out reads and asked them to ask question but Release just didn't give a fuck at all. He didn't ask questions, let me speak, etc. He just wanted me to flip so he could get to lylo.
@YKZ: I mean, I would like to believe that about Koshi. But he could just be bad town. Like I said, I don't really know Koshi's meta but I really think you should check him. Does he generally play like this, ie super defending and passive? Or is he actually good? Also, while Koshi is lurking SlOosh and Release seems to be trying to contribute but in reality just tunnel. I still think Release is just as scummy as Koshi.
He's the best lynch for tomorrow+ Show Spoiler +
But, to be more specific, because of Release' day 1 vote, and the swap from voting me D1 to voting mderg D2 in a mderg-vs-me race, when I should have looked worse D2 than I did D1. Remember what I did D2? I took a 48 hour dinner after lynching a townie. Not sure how this convinced Release, who was happy throwing away his vote on a non-wagon on me D1, to vote to lynch mderg over me. Obviously he pretended to be convinced by the case, but this reversal doesn't make sense.
Although Koshi has been uniformly terrible and his actions during the VE/LM debacle are pretty awful, and he's been afk, it doesn't make sense to me that all 3 scum woudl vote 27nb D1, which means Release is more likely to be scum. I also ned to look over release' long back-and-forths with me throughout the VE lynch day, I wonder if they make sense from a town perspective.
In any case, I'm not lynching into the green checks, and I'm not lynching Chez. The VCA for D1 and D2 and the words of LM that we know were town-motivated make me want to lynch Release. But hey, I've done nothing here but repeat the case I quoted. I recommend you check it out.
Remember, Sloosh, if you think Chez is town, you need to convince him to vote me with you if you want to lynch scum-me. It's 3 town, 2 scum today. This means that all 3 town NEED to vote together to get a lynch. This also means that if you hear someone say something, there's like a 50% chance it's coming from scum. Tell me what I can say to clarify or help you. Also, please tell me the chief reasons you think I'm scum. I think you're town, I want to do everything I can to convince you that I too am town, because I *need* you. Unless all 3 of us vote together, we lose.
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The fact of the matter is, Release and Koshi are probably both scum, but in the extraordinary unlikely event that somehow chez or sloosh is scum with one of release/koshi, Release makes more sense as a scum partner. There HAD to be one scum not on the 27nb wagon, it won by 3 votes, scum did not have to work that hard to protect mderg d1; why take the risk?
Everyone who didn't vote 27nb is dead except release. He didn't even bus mderg, he voted me. And the next day, between me and mderg, he voted mderg when it counted, despite being willing to vote me D1. I'm not even sure that last bit is a scumtell but the point is: it's gotta be Release, there's no scumteam without him.
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You don't address the most telling part of the Vount Count Analysis. If you think Release is town, then D1 all scum voted together for no reason (since the vote was 7-4). I do not find this likely. I think if 7-4 was entirely due to scum inteference (ie the townies voted 4-4) scum would not have shot GK, one of mderg's strongest defenders, N1. I think Release is scum for that reason. Please address this issue.
Also, I'm not done with you. Unless we vote together, it's over. This is true. You obviously understand this since you're talking to chez. But the fact of the matter is, you're lynching into green checks, again. This is patently awful play. When this game is over, some observer, or even the host, is going to ask what we were doing lynching the green checks.
Also, I know I was basically absent from the end of N1 to about halfway through D2, but this is because my nephew had an epileptic seizure. The kid has epilipsy, but hasn't had an episode for a couple years. the doctors were ramping down his dosage and he seized overnight, and my brother was in Chico. my dad called the doctor while I stayed with him and we took him to the neurologist, and basically didn't have time to actually be at the computer. I wish I did, but all I had was my phone, so I basically just made flippant remarks to ease the stress. There, is that better? That's the reason I randomly disappeared for 48 hours. My fucking loser brother can't hold down a job and can't even keep custody of his kid who has special needs, so sometimes I gotta clean up after messes that aren't mine.
So there, I did what all you idiots do, which is talk about IRL things. Is this better than Dinner? Is this more convincing? No, you don't give a shit. none of the IRL things matter. I was away for 48 hours, but that was then, and this is now. when my life was on the line, I contributed. When VE was being lynched, I contributed. And when EVERYONE was wrong (or scum) and pushing LM, I was there to try to make the best of it. It doesn't matter if I was eating a long long dinner or if my nephew needed someone to take care of him during a medical emergency. all that matters is how I played before, and how I played after.
I played for the town.
Everything I've done this game, I've done to foster a good environment. I've kept less active people involved. I've forced people to give opinions when they were quiet. I've driven most of the lynches and god damn it, everyone knows my reads and where I stand. yeah, it's easy for me to look bad because i'm outspoken, because I don't hide or vascillate or waffle. I'm here to talk and I push my reads, because that's what I do. I was wrong, twice-- on 27nb and VE. But I was also right twice, on mderg and on LM. And when I was right OR wrong, I made sure the thread stayed active. When I thought I'd die D2, I tried to leave behind reads and engage the thread.
i've done everything I can to make this decision easy for you.
and gods be damned, I'm gonna make the best of this, too. sloosh, I stayed up 2 hours waiting for your reply so you better have replied to this post by the time I wake up.
Also I didn't read the vote by vote thing, I was just looking at your helpful vca diagram, i'm looking at what happened at the end of the day. and honestly it's worth noting that Release was on me D1, and NOT on me D2. you can't deny this.
And let's be real here, I play a good scum, but
1) everything I've done is pro town. most of this town's good atmosphere and environment is due to me and me alone 2) there's a freaking green check on me, just like there was on LM, and just like there is on you, sloosh. 3) i also play a good town. A damn good town. and you need to engage me and discuss with me and not say "roll credits" because you OWE it to me. You OWE it to me to talk to me and give me a chance to convince you. You're not 100% on me being scum, which means you have to admit it; you could be wrong.
which means we need to keep talking. If I'm scum, catch me. I'm good scum, as you say. Then read my games history and show how I'm like my scum games. If I'm town, that will show; and if I'm scum, that will show.
We're not done, sloosh. Respond to the Release vote on D1. Respond to what I say about myself. Respond to the green check. you KNOW it's wrong to go lynching down the list of green checks. you KNOW it. yes, I could be a gf or a framer who framed himself, sure. But maybe the scum pr is an rb (unlikely given the gk kill, but super common non-conseq doc + 1x cop setup). this would mean there's no cop-fooling role, which means you and I are town.
Chezinu understands this as well as I do. we gotta get our shit together. I've done everything I can to work for the town, and you've been tunnelled on me forever. I bet if LM flipped scum, you'd call e scum for it, and if he flipped town, youd' call me town for it. please, sloosh, THINK for a moment.
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On June 29 2014 01:22 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2014 09:20 Chezinu wrote:On June 21 2014 07:48 Chezinu wrote:On June 18 2014 05:33 Kurumi wrote:Vote Count - Day 1: mderg (3): VisceraEyes, Lazermonkey, Chezinu, Snickers 27ninjabunnies (2): YouKnowZhou, Lazermonkey, mderg VisceraEyes (2): Lazermonkey, slOosh YouKnowZhou (1): 27ninjabunnies, Release, goodkarmaKoshi (1): Artanis[Xp] Release (0): Artanis[Xp], SnickersArtanis[Xp] (0): slOoshCurrently Not Voting (3): goodkarma, Koshi, 27ninjabunnies, Currently mderg is set to be lynched with 3 votes! Day will end in
Remember: Voting is mandatory. You can find the spreadsheet to the game here.
On June 18 2014 08:54 OnceKing wrote:Vote Count - Day 1: 27ninjabunnies (6): YouKnowZhou, Artanis[Xp], mderg, Chezinu, Koshi, slOosh YouKnowZhou (1): Release VisceraEyes (1): goodkarma mderg (4): Snickers, VisceraEyes, 27ninjabunnies, Lazermonkey Currently Not Voting (0): None! Currently 27ninjabunnies is set to be lynched with 6 votes! Day will end in
Remember: Voting is mandatory. You can find the spreadsheet to the game here.
On June 21 2014 06:56 Kurumi wrote:Vote Count - Day 2: YouKnowZhou (5): Release, slOosh, VisceraEyes, Artanis[Xp](revote), Snickers mderg (2): Snickers, YouKnowZhou, Koshi VisceraEyes (2): mderg, Chezinu Koshi (1): Lazermonkey, Artanis[Xp]Snickers (0): YouKnowZhouCurrently Not Voting (0): None! Currently YouKnowZhou is set to be lynched with 5 votes! Day will end in
Remember: Voting is mandatory. You can find the spreadsheet to the game here.
Votes don't lie Yeah On Loss doesn't look good. He was the reason I couldn't bunny hop back on Day 1. Death to slOosh! Show nested quote +On June 24 2014 07:24 Chezinu wrote:On June 24 2014 07:22 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Chez, BH, opinions on Koshi? If VE is town, then all mafia voted bunnies Day 1. Ok guys, This is the last troll of this game. Like almost seriously! Koshi is mafia!##Unvote ##Vote Koshialso, we gots time guys. Cause you know, I checked him yesterday.
I understand that you think all scum voted together day one. Voting kosh makes sense then. What I don't get is why? I feel like you think those quote somehow explain it or are convincing but I still don't understand.
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On June 29 2014 04:26 slOosh wrote:I've bolded the parts that haven't been addressed Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 17:55 slOosh wrote: I think you are scum because there is insufficient reason as town as to why you want to lynch Release over Koshi. I did not ask why you think Release is scum, I asked specifically why you wanted to lynch Release specifically over Koshi. All your stuff on Release could have been pulled from before last cycle yet never brought up, and Koshi has done even less of anything yet you are willing to overlook him. The only thing that has changed is that it is currently LYLO, and a scum YKZ would have tremendous reason to do this, while a town YKZ would have none.
You somehow value the words of town LM, yet totally disdain the words of town VE or town Artanis, both of whom had suspicions on the LM / Koshi / YKZ trio. Furthermore, you were the only one who had a town read on LM on something random you pulled out of his filter which is terribly non alignment indicative, but you used that as a means of leverage.
You totally tunneled and got bunnies lynched, never engaging in a proper mderg discussion.
The time you do jump into the discussion is way way late into D2, in which it does indeed look like a bus. You have not put into consideration the D2 vote analysis with as nearly as much weight as you should have, given that as town you should have known that it was a hotly contested lynch D2, given votes at 5-5, and thus very unlikely that scum bussed. Of course, you cannot do this because you are in a predicament where everyone on your wagon beside me is actually dead. If it was indeed a bus, it would make more sense that Koshi is more suspect as scum would try to milk it properly. The way that Release placed his vote was very much fluid and not as premeditated as Koshi was.
You thoroughly antagonized and tunneled VE and ultimately got him lynched without heeding word of Artanis at all. Could be BH arrogance, but more likely scum BH pushing his agenda under such pretense.
Additionally is your blatant misinterpretation of D2 of Release's votes. He backed off because you were posting stuffs and mderg was not. If anything, the body of evidence you produce indicate that Release is more likely to be town than scum for it, but you are brazenly pushing the contrary.
Fact is BH, you play good scum. You play really good scum. As you would yourself admit. In fact, scum BH would do a tremendous job at potentially looking like town BH, or just outargue people with words and posts and feels (not necessarily logic) when that fails.
Chezinu basically confirmed town.
So leftover is Release and Koshi and you.
I don't know them too well, but I heavily doubt Release & Koshi's scum game are capable of what has been accomplished in this game by scum, and that's just on paper.
Bravo BH. Perhaps with more scum-capable players alive you could have swayed me. But this work could only have been done by you. Your reputation will be your demise.
-roll credits-
You come over here and discuss my concerns, not dismissing them all and talking about something I find not only lackluster but straight up twisted and convoluted. "mderg getting lynched" "scum voting counterwagon for no reason". Garbage argument. Also Chezinu please, like either YKZ or Koshi is fine with me, we just need the votes on the same people at deadline. Are we doing Koshi today or YKZ today? Likewise for Release.
I totally understand that I haven't addressed much of your post, but I want to know your response to my thoughts on the D1 wagon. I'll work on a more qdequate response now.
On June 29 2014 04:36 slOosh wrote: Gonna play follow the Chez now. It's our only hope.
##Unvote YouKnowZhou ##Vote Koshi
not as good as Release, but works for me
##unvote ##vote Koshi
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