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You could have voted epi if you weren't so distracted by tamburini. In fact, that's really the only "frivolous" thing you've done this game, everything else has pretty much made sense.
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On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
At this point, does mafia need to get town to lynch their top towns? No. They can continue the strategy they've had all game of picking off people who were on the fence, making them seem scummy for bad town play. If I were mafia what would be the point of switching up my play now and attacking the towniest townies? That would be totally stupid.
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On June 27 2014 23:51 HaruRH wrote:Look here. Even if your wagon on Templar was right, epishade was allowed to basically afk past n2 and post a useless post. Show nested quote +On June 26 2014 14:43 Epishade wrote:
I'm all for lynching mtamburini after that vote. I don't know about you, but for me, who still scumreads epishade, I don't think we should neglect him. I want epishade to start talking right away. ##Vote: Epishade
On June 28 2014 05:56 HaruRH wrote:
You know this is potentially lylo right
If there are 4 maf, then its 5/4. A ML would change it to 4/4 and 3/4. Scum wins.
If there are 3 maf, then its 6/3. A ML would change it to 5/3 and 4/3. 1 last day left.
This could be your last day to make the case. Bring it up and let's discuss this properly. Ignore all previous comments about wifom.
"Yeah, Templar might be scum but let's vote for a lurker like we did every mislynch even though it might be lylo."
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On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
So am I scum or is glowingbear scum?
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On June 28 2014 00:29 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 00:08 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
At this point, does mafia need to get town to lynch their top towns? No. They can continue the strategy they've had all game of picking off people who were on the fence, making them seem scummy for bad town play. If I were mafia what would be the point of switching up my play now and attacking the towniest townies? That would be totally stupid. Why not. This is the perfect chance to mislynch another town.
... Are you serious? Mafia are careful, WHY would they switch up their game if their strategy was working???
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On June 28 2014 01:13 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia. Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads. 'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that? Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised. (1) What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. (2) Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. (3) And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post. That night post my have (4) came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim. (5) And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. (6) Filter dive me and compare it to templar's. If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches. (1) Thank you for stating the obvious. (2) So, what I'm reading here is that "townies will play incorrectly but mafia probably won't, so we can catch them because they're playing well." This makes no sense. (3) See point 2. Keep in mind that scum is liable to play incorrectly just like town does. (4) *may have (5) Why were you so worried about being the victim? You hadn't been really on the map, and the kill of Lord Tolkien seems to show that whoever killed him wanted to either pick off possible scum (and you weren't) or aggressive players (again, you weren't). So it was very unlikely that you were going to die. (6) Exactly the opposite of Hobbitus's point on the matter. She said I over-explained and felt a need to clarify and perfect my posts concerning my votes (which is very obvious), while you're saying that I don't want to at all.
2 makes sense to me. Basically mafia can be expected to play better than town because they actually have knowledge of what is going on. Town, especially in a game like this where town is losing so badly, can be expected to be confused because they are totally in the dark.
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On June 28 2014 01:26 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? (1) I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me. (2)
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. (3) That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. (4) I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. (5) (1) Because it's the last thing anyone following the current trend would expect. And you were extremely quiet along with GlowingBear. (2) Sure it doesn't, that's why GlowingBear made sure to hint you two were the same alignment. (3) And you very conveniently chose the exact opposite of the lynched behaviors. (4) That worked out pretty well. You changed your opinion of cats to town right before he died, and look! he's town! (5) It's accurate because a lot of your reasoning for your new methods was based on the fact you had been wrong about everyone…? Am I missing something here?
1. Maybe you haven't noticed but town is fucked. Scum has no reason to risk anything with an "against the grain" play.
2. What? I have no control over what he says?
3-5. What are you even talking about? I am not a total moron, if I realize something is not working for me, I try something new. Cats flipping town fits with my new way of thinking. Does that mean I'm 100% right about everyone? No, but at least I have a theory about how scum is playing that makes sense now.
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Sorry for spamming :/ This is my last post and then I'm caught up.
Epishade, if you don't think Templar is scum, you should vote Haru. You can't lynch meatpudding for information, he has been dragged through this whole game, his case is so convoluted, you wouldn't be able to decipher anything from his flip. If he's town, who would you go after, Teemu? Everyone suspected mp at some point, and it's WIFOM to figure out who among them was most likely to be scum. If he flips scum, likewise, does that clear Teemu or anyone else on his wagon as town? It's way too messy. Plus lynching for info does no good if it's lylo.
On top of that, you still only have a fence read on him.
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On June 28 2014 13:21 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 11:16 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:29 HaruRH wrote:On June 28 2014 00:08 Hobbitus wrote:On June 28 2014 00:03 HaruRH wrote:
Questions for everyone:
1) What do you think of this glowingbear-hobbitus interaction going on?
2) What are your updated reads?
I'll answer my own question. I find glowingbear-hobbitus's interaction weird. It almost feels like a scum buddied up with a town and is attempting to misdirect town into lynching all their own top towns. This is what I think.
My updated reads:
poofter
teemu
templar
glowingbear
hobbitus
mtam
meatpudding
epishade
At this point, does mafia need to get town to lynch their top towns? No. They can continue the strategy they've had all game of picking off people who were on the fence, making them seem scummy for bad town play. If I were mafia what would be the point of switching up my play now and attacking the towniest townies? That would be totally stupid. Why not. This is the perfect chance to mislynch another town. ... Are you serious? Mafia are careful, WHY would they switch up their game if their strategy was working??? Exactly. Why switch up when they can lurk past this game?
Mafia haven't been lurking obviously. Everyone suspected of being mafia because of lurking or incoherence or basically being a bad townie HAS FLIPPED GREEN. If we haven't lynched a single scum, then obviously the mafia are somewhat involved in the game.
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On June 28 2014 13:28 HaruRH wrote:
No seriously hobbitus. You're not making any sense now. I suspect you're just dumping all you can because this could be lylo. Trying to make a play? Trying to let potential scum lurk? Instantly flipping all your townreads and expect everyone to do the same? Wifom the shit out of everyone? You're misdirecting town so bad, if templar flips town, both you and glowingbear are getting the axe. But of course, this could already be lylo and lynching templar would win you the game.
##Unvote
##Vote: Hobbitus
Oh. My. God.
If I were mafia, I would be horrible mafia for making such a risky play when the game was pretty much won for me.
The whole "letting potential scum lurk" thing is such bullshit. Yeah, let's continue to go after the people who we have almost NO INFORMATION ABOUT. That's not an incredibly easy way to get town to mislynch for seemingly justified reasons, that's not a scummy play at all.
And exactly, exactly. If I suddenly flip all my reads, what are the chances of getting all the other town to do the same? There is literally no reason for me to make that play!
Yup, vote me because I'm pressuring you and Templar. Please continue to question me so I can demonstrate quite clearly to townies that I am making sense and that you are scummy as fuck thx.
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On June 28 2014 23:49 meatpudding wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 23:21 Teemursu wrote:On June 27 2014 11:44 meatpudding wrote:On June 23 2014 20:57 Teemursu wrote:
TOWN:
HaruRH
NydusHerMain
LEANING TOWN:
Jabber
Templar
Hobbitus
GlowingBear
NULL:
Solar424
BlondeMocha
Scott31337
FENCE:
Epishade
LEANING SCUM / SCUM:
Tolkien
Cats
MeatPudding On June 25 2014 06:15 Teemursu wrote:
HaruRH
Templar,
KotC
NydusHerMain
MeatPudding
GlowingBear
fuck your formatting On June 25 2014 05:23 Teemursu wrote:
Anyways, welcome to the game Tehpoofter & Mtamburini.
How are you guys reading MeatPudding, KotC and myself?
I'm starting to be willing to ignore whatever MP posts from now on, since his logic is starting to make less and less sense.
KotC is actually starting to sound reasonable, I'm starting to consider even putting him off from my vote list. I like his pressure on MeatPudding. On June 25 2014 07:42 Teemursu wrote:On June 25 2014 07:39 Hobbitus wrote:On June 25 2014 07:04 Teemursu wrote:On June 25 2014 07:01 Hobbitus wrote:Around for a little while. Just so you know, I don't have a day off from work/social obligations from now until the end of this game, probably  I'll post as much as I can, but there will be long stretches where I can't. To be honest, I'm feeling kind of discouraged after last night; I put a lot of time into my earlier reads and I feel like it's getting me nowhere :\ If anyone has specific questions for me about D2, that would help. In the mean time I'm going to reread N1 events and post my thoughts. Hey, I kind of feel the same. Anything specific you want to talk about? Let's start somewhere if you don't have anything. What do you think of KotC after the flips? I am on the fence after the flips. Now that I know Tolkien was town, I can understand his arguments better. However the fact that I couldn't understand his argument until Tolkien flipped is something I'm keeping note of. To me that suggests that Tolkien's alignment generated the case, rather than making a case to figure out Tolkien's alignment. But that's very subjective. This is how kotc describes his playstyle I don't make long posts where i list everyone that's playing and say if i think they're slightly X or slightly Y because of Z. It's just not the way i play. I pick out things that i think need addressing and run with them. I push my strongest scumreads and only point out why i think people are town if they're looking like they might get lynched. Doing anything else seems like a waste of time to me. and he's definitely sticking to it. However, it is a less traditional way to play town, so I'm not sure how to feel about it. His style would be easier to hide scum in, whether or not he is scum. With his playstyle, it's fine to ask questions. I just need to see him provide the information he gets from the questions. Regarding that, has there been anything his content has stuck out to you specifically yet? His push on MeatPudding has been pleasing me so far, so I'm actually okay with him now. On June 27 2014 11:19 Teemursu wrote:MeatPudding: I'm still reading KotC as town. Just because he voted on Nydus doesn't make him scum. Nydus was still a decent vote and I've expressed my opinion about that. + Show Spoiler +On June 26 2014 13:01 Amiko wrote:Day 2 - Final Vote Count meatpudding (0): Teemursu, Hobbitus, The_Templar, GlowingBearNydusHerMain (3): Tehpoofter, Teemursu, TheKingOfTheCats, TheKingOfTheCats, mtamburini GlowingBear (0): NydusHerMainTeemursu (2): Meatpudding, Epishade, Epishade Epishade (2): HaruRH, Teemursu, Hobbitus HaruRH (0): GlowingBearJabberwockzerg (2): Epishade, The_Templar, TheKingOfTheCats, GlowingBear mtamburini (2): HaruRH, NydusHerMain Not voting (1): Jabberwockzerg
NydusHerMain was lynched with 3 votes. Since the votes were so spread out, I really can't speculate where the mafia voted. I'm going off on my reads so I'm pressuring MeatPudding and Epishade tomorrow. So, just to be clear, you switched your read on Cats from scum to town because he was asking me questions? Do you have an updated read on Haruhi? Since the votes were spread out, do you think there is a good chance mafia had one vote on Epishade? Not only asking questions but also pressuring and providing information based on those questions. As I said previously, Haruhi is still strong town, but his response to tambo's pressure was kind of awkward. If people really want me to explain my town read on Haruhi, I will, but I'd rather focus on scum hunting, since that's where I'm strongest at with this game. I already am kind of exhausted with the game (I can see where Nydus is coming from). I don't know what would point to at least one mafia voting on Epishade? Nothing points to or away from it. The votes were so spread out and we didn't have a clear candidate for a main wagon. Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 23:21 Teemursu wrote:On June 28 2014 10:10 meatpudding wrote:
Teemu
Has been very unproductive in D2. He seems willing to give easy town reads, while hesitant to call out any scum. I think he is only calling out town as scum, and if he did that too often a wagon would pile onto him. His scum reads aren't given with clear information. He is careful to be completely consistent. He attacks the credibility of anyone who argues against him instead of trying to prove he is town. I believe Tolkien died because he was on Teemu's scum list and he didn't want to be seen to be inconsistent when he voted for me or Epi.
Everything you say is logically inconsistent and simply bad. I'm too tired of debunking everything you say since it's so goddamn stupid. This is about the scummiest thing you've said all game. So far none of your scum reads have been correct, I don't know how you expect to pass as a good scum hunter. The D2 votes are the best clue we have to determine who is scum, and you just ignore them. Calling me stupid instead of calling me scum, I think you don't want anybody to believe my read on you might be correct.
mp, teemu might be scum but there isn't enough info/support to vote him today. I think we should try to consolidate our votes down to two wagons early so we don't end up all spread out like we did with nydus' lynch.
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On me being passive then aggressive: I am passive when I am gathering information, I am aggressive when I have a theory on something. Reread my filter during the MM lynch and tell me I wasn't being aggressive. And before it becomes an issue, I was wrong about MM but that doesn't make me scum.
In fact, the black and white picture Haru is trying to paint should be an indication in itself. This game is messy, both sides make mistakes. If Templar flips town, glowing bear and I are 100% scum. Because neither of us could be wrong, could only be scum. Actually, is this even about Templar any more? Haru has so successfully diverted the attention from him, no one is talking about him at this point.
And you know what, I don't really care about my image anymore. The way I see it, town is 90% going to lose. If I need to be an asshole to get scum lynched, that's what I'm going to do. D1 Hobbitus was nicer than this bc d1 Hobbitus wasn't pissed off about losing this badly.
And yeah, all my posts reek of panic -_- if anything Haru is promoting everyone to panic with lylo this, lylo that.
I really don't have anything to say on bear, the only thing we have in common is our read on Templar. No idea if he's scum or town, but I will say this: if bear and I are both town, I would be the better mislynch. Bear can't really argue his points that well. (Note which of the two of us Haru is pushing, note that most people find bear scummier than me)
This is the perfect time to do so. If I did not catch the inconsistency with your posts, I would also have sheeped you.
Yeah, but you did catch the inconsistency in my posts. Anyone reading my filter would read the inconsistency in my posts. Obviously I'm not trying to hide that.
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Fuck it, if Templar is town I'll never forgive myself
##vote: HaruRH
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I am at work, posted on my break. Can't really post anything longer rn, maybe if I'm not dead tmrw. Trying to decide whether to vote Haru or Templar argh. Will be back a few minutes before eod I guess
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Haru best lynch, then epi, then mp. I swear if mp gets lynched I'll be so pissed -_-
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Should be home in about an hour
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Haru I think is scum, epi on the fence, mp town.
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My reads in order from scummiest to towniest:
Haru
Templar
Epi
Teemu
Bear
Poof
Mtam
Mp
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On June 29 2014 12:32 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 12:24 Epishade wrote:
I understand GlowBear is voting Haruhi in favor of a vote over me though. But you say you kinda think Haruhi is town.
Glowbear, would you consider Teemursu instead, with meatpudding and me? Maybe. We need Hobbitus for that. What do you think, poof?
Teemu is suspicious to me but I'm much less confident in him being scum than either Templar or Haru. I really don't want to vote him.
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I never saw the argument on him being scum? But does that really matter at this point?
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EPT
