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Holy shit that eod I mean I look like a giant scum bag but holy shit I have a vote analysis boner.
Teemu you wolfed hard and fought for your team gg
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Teemu could have avoided the lynch by voting for epi, why didn't he? Smells scummy
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On June 29 2014 14:58 HaruRH wrote:
Teemu could have avoided the lynch by voting for epi, why didn't he? Smells scummy
BAHAHAHA, you're right! He missed the deadline! That would have been game.
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On June 29 2014 14:58 HaruRH wrote:
Teemu could have avoided the lynch by voting for epi, why didn't he? Smells scummy
HAHAHAHA I'm so glad he couldn't make it
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On June 29 2014 14:59 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 14:58 HaruRH wrote:
Teemu could have avoided the lynch by voting for epi, why didn't he? Smells scummy HAHAHAHA I'm so glad he couldn't make it
LOLOLOL I thought he was trying to save his scumbuddy
Poofter may be able to reclaim his honour (maybe?)
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On June 23 2014 13:02 Alakaslam wrote:Final Vote Count – Day 1 scott31337 (1): Lord Tolkein, The_Templar, scott31337 Lord Tolkien (0): HaruRHTheKingOfTheCats (0): NydusHerMain, MysteryMeat1meatpudding (4): Teemursu, scott31337, HaruRH, The_Templar, jabberwockzerg, Epishade, GlowingBear, MysteryMeat1, The_TemplarHaruRH (0): meatpuddingjabberwockzerg (0): HobbitusMysteryMeat1 (8): TheKingOfTheCats, Lord Tolkien, Epishade, Hobbitus, The_Templar, jabberwockzerg, NydusHerMain, The_Templar, meatpudding Not voting (2): Solar424, BlondeMocha
MysteryMeat1 is lynched with 8 votes.
Day 1 has ended.
On June 26 2014 12:55 Amiko wrote:Vote Count – Day 2 meatpudding (0): Teemursu, Hobbitus, The_Templar, GlowingBearNydusHerMain (3): Tehpoofter, Teemursu, TheKingOfTheCats, TheKingOfTheCats, mtamburini GlowingBear (0): NydusHerMainTeemursu (2): Meatpudding, Epishade, Epishade Epishade (2): HaruRH, Teemursu, Hobbitus HaruRH (0): GlowingBearJabberwockzerg (2): Epishade, The_Templar, TheKingOfTheCats, GlowingBear mtamburini (2): HaruRH, NydusHerMain Not voting (1): Jabberwockzerg
Currently, NydusHerMain is set to be lynched with 3 votes.
As a reminder for resolving ties - a player becomes the new lynch target when that player has more votes than anyone else. (The first player to get the majority will become the new vote target)
Please contact the mods if the vote count is incorrect. Thank you!
Day 2 will end in (04:00 GMT (+00:00)).
On June 29 2014 14:46 Amiko wrote:Here is the vote as I have it, give me one or two minutes to check everything and ensure it is correct (thank you starbucks)
Vote Count – Day 3 The_Templar (2)GlowingBear, Hobbitus, mtamburini, Tehpoofter, mtamburini, Hobbitus Epishade (3): HaruRH, GlowingBear, HaruRH, The_Templar, TehPoofter, HaruRH Meatpudding (1): Epishade, Teemursu, mtamburiniTeemursu (3*): Meatpudding, Epishade, Epishade, GlowingBear, Epishade, GlowingBear Hobbitus (0): HaruRHHaruRH (0): Hobbitus, Epishade, TehPoofter, ] TehPoofter, GlowingBearmtamburini (0): TehPoofter, GlowingBear, HaruRH, EpishadeNot Voting (0): No one
Currently, Teemursu is set to be lynched with 3 votes.
As a reminder for resolving ties - a player becomes the new lynch target when that player has more votes than anyone else.
Please contact the mods if the vote count is incorrect. Thank you!
This is really hard to update - doing by phone. If any info is incorrect please ensure you PM my mistakes to Alakaslam
Day 3 will end in (04:00 GMT (+00:00)).
For reference.
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On June 27 2014 15:01 Tehpoofter wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 14:03 mtamburini wrote:
All vts are dying did we really get stuck with no roles this game?
Will do vote analysis tomorrow. Going to bed now super tired was modding a Video Game. So bunch of dead Vt's Cop with red check out today. If you have two green checks alive probably out otherwise use your own judgement. Vigi might consider claiming. Medic don't claim. I might be all of these roles or none.
In case you're wondering why I didn't come out sooner, its because I had neither a red check nor 2 green checks. Coming out now would have just been scumfood.
Gimme 1 min, ill show you my hidden message for the doubtful
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Yeah lol that was way too close. If Teemu came back five minutes earlier...
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On June 29 2014 15:05 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 15:01 Tehpoofter wrote:On June 27 2014 14:03 mtamburini wrote:
All vts are dying did we really get stuck with no roles this game?
Will do vote analysis tomorrow. Going to bed now super tired was modding a Video Game. So bunch of dead Vt's Cop with red check out today. If you have two green checks alive probably out otherwise use your own judgement. Vigi might consider claiming. Medic don't claim. I might be all of these roles or none. In case you're wondering why I didn't come out sooner, its because I had neither a red check nor 2 green checks. Coming out now would have just been scumfood. Gimme 1 min, ill show you my hidden message for the doubtful
I'm aware I should have picked up on the rb thing and hammered teemu
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I'm so glad I was right on Teemursu all along. That made my day.
Teemursu is so unfortunate that he didn't make it back in time. Good for us though.
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On June 29 2014 00:53 HaruRH wrote:I have filter dived hobbitus properly (I made sure to re-read all posts and link them to context, such as what he was replying to, when was it and what was he thinking at that time). I came up with a few damning evidence. At least, for me. 1)Rapid change of tone and willingness to throw away their imageAt the beginning, hobbitus was playing very passive with no strong pushes at all. He was mainly interested to read people's response and come up with ideas, then go with the general flow. He has never strayed away from the general lynch targets (D1, MM (lynched->town)) (D2, epishade ->not lynched). His reasoning have also been very politically correct thus far. (Nothing that seems scummy at all, answers all questions properly) + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2014 07:26 Hobbitus wrote:Bear, I am leaning slightly town on you. I can follow the logic of your arguments and you put a decent amount of effort into your reads, which is a good start. Well, that precisely, it's a start. You were a little later to the game than the rest of us, so I need more time/posts to get a stronger read. I think this is your most interesting post so far: Show nested quote + I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie. I read Haru as town as well, but I like that you are still thinking of him even when he is in your town pile. On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny On June 23 2014 11:31 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:21 MysteryMeat1 wrote:On June 23 2014 11:02 Hobbitus wrote:
MM is so bad, and the case against him is so strong it's actually ludicrous, which is why I'm entertaining that idea at all. I don't want to believe anyone is that terrible. I find this actually quite amusing, you don't agree with my reads, and call me bad which is fine. But if we want to talk about past games, then in mine i successfully predicted the roleblocker, got town to lynch him ,and pinged out the other 3 mafia. I'm a town you don't want to lynch d1, unless your mafia. then go ahead and lynch me. Not to be rude, but I don't really care about your past games. The options I see for you are: 1. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes 2. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes which scum are using to their advantage 3. you are mafia and made a series of bad mistakes 4. you are mafia and being bussed to make other players look good If 1 is true, I think you'd be more of a hindrance than an asset to town for the rest of the game If 2 is true, at least I have some leads for D2 scum If 3 is true, you're scum, which is all the matters in the end If 4 is true, you are scum, which is fantastic, and I might be able to use you to figure out other scum In any of those four cases, I don't mind you getting lynched On June 25 2014 19:21 Hobbitus wrote:
Actually, can anyone else who finds teemu suspicious make a case on him? I'll do it myself if I have time but I just don't know if I will today :/ On June 27 2014 09:50 Hobbitus wrote:
Uhh, where did my text go??
I said, fun fact: Templar wasn't voted either day also
If you want to examine us both D3 that might be a good idea, since we haven't been in the spotlight at all. PS: Notice the use of words 'might', 'quite', 'think', which indicates passivity hobbitus hard push anyone? you asked. Well, on n2, on a flip of a switch, hobbitus instantly turned into aggressive|hobbitus, with nearly 0 uses of such passive tones. He turned aggressive overnight, over a span of an hour, because of a slight suspicion of Templar that turned into a full blown 'case'. Not only hobbitus, but glowingbear as well. This is generally not a good sign, since they are not consistent with their own image and are willing to blow their towny image in exchange for a potential mislynch. 'Why would that be a threat? If Templar flips green, we can lynch them both, right?' My answer is that today might potentially be the last day, because of how we don't know the scum count. If there are 4 scum, we have 5 town left and today would be the final day. Their image will not matter as long as they get the last town lynched. If there are 3 scum, we have 6 town left and today will not be the final day, and all mislynches will cause tons of havoc given how much they are pushing right now. Therefore, I came up with 2 conclusion: 1) both hobbitus and glowingbear are scum because both showed that they are willing to 'flip their reads altogether' just to lynch today. 2) Either one of hobbitus or glowingbear is the scum, and one of them is leading the Templar train while the other is hoodwinked into following him. The third option exists, which is that 3) They are masons and agreed to push together, but I highly doubt this is the answer. 2) General lack of empathy for townThis is even more apparent when he turned into aggressive|hobbitus. + Show Spoiler +On June 28 2014 11:28 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 01:26 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? (1) I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me. (2)
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. (3) That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. (4) I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. (5) (1) Because it's the last thing anyone following the current trend would expect. And you were extremely quiet along with GlowingBear. (2) Sure it doesn't, that's why GlowingBear made sure to hint you two were the same alignment. (3) And you very conveniently chose the exact opposite of the lynched behaviors. (4) That worked out pretty well. You changed your opinion of cats to town right before he died, and look! he's town! (5) It's accurate because a lot of your reasoning for your new methods was based on the fact you had been wrong about everyone…? Am I missing something here? 1. Maybe you haven't noticed but town is fucked. Scum has no reason to risk anything with an "against the grain" play. 2. What? I have no control over what he says? 3-5. What are you even talking about? I am not a total moron, if I realize something is not working for me, I try something new. Cats flipping town fits with my new way of thinking. Does that mean I'm 100% right about everyone? No, but at least I have a theory about how scum is playing that makes sense now. Definitely, this is not a major point and can easily be disputed, but for someone like hobbitus, who I read as flowing with town agenda for the past few days, this is not a good read. 3) Flipping readsGranted, this is another disputable point, but surprisingly enough, most scum flips their read during the last day. For example, in TL Order Mafia, all the scum flipped their reads almost immediately during the lylo (I know we shouldn't be talking about other games, sorry!). This could be explained by the fact that most people are exhausted with the game by now (D3~D5 is where people start being exhausted with games. Likewise, I am exhausted and this is my final big push) and people are more susceptible to any strong reads thrown at them. They are willing to end the game quick, even if it means a loss. However, his flips are backed up with last minute reasonings that doesn't mix well with me. + Show Spoiler +his reads on N1 On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny D2 On June 25 2014 07:44 Hobbitus wrote:
templar
Town: haru
Wolfy: kotc
OUTTED WOLF: jabber
Everyone else I have no idea rn, like I said, after the flips I really feel I need to reevaluate.
N2 On June 27 2014 12:56 Hobbitus wrote:
Summary post:
Reads (and stuff I'm thinking about atm)
HaruRH-scum (says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer)
Thekingofthecats-town (gets caught up in the details)
GlowingBear-town (adorable but in that clueless animal way) (could be wrong, suspicious about blue role posts/not changing his vote last night)
Meatpudding-town (suspect both wagons D1 were town, never had convincing case against)
Epishade-scum (see post)
mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
The_Templar-scum (see post) (also, really conscious of how posts sound when they don't even sound scummy/clarifying when he doesn't need to etc/not changing his vote last night)
Teemu-town (for actions during D2 EOD, consolidation of votes etc)
What I think we should focus on D3:
-why was Tolkien shot? (My guess is that it had something to do with mp, and that it was probably mafia who killed him)
-take a look at the whole bear calling haru blue and then haru being roleblocked thing, mafia shouldn't roleblock based on the opinion of one townie.
-possibility: if bear, templar and epi are scum, it could explain why templar/bear never changed their vote last night. didn't want epi to get lynched and yet knew the case on nydus was really stupid Reasons for flip: Templar: On June 27 2014 10:50 Hobbitus wrote:So he originally voted on mp with a scum read on him, and a "slight town" read on MM. Then, after MM was being weird MM: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town... I don't like this. MM defending or not defending himself doesn't mean anything, neither mafia nor town want to be lynched. And yet that's somehow enough to get him to change his vote to MM. And the bit about Scott... I dunno, that sounds like a very contrived argument to me. MM said scott should keep fighting to the end so town would win, not that fighting to the end MADE scott town, I thought that was fairly obvious. Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:34 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:18 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Templar also declares meatPudding as scum, and says im slightly town. nothing else had been posted by either of us, and he's willing to vote on me. Says there is no way i could be town here and then votes on me. I'd say at least one of the mafia are going to be between tolkien,cats,templar. If we are lucky then two of them would be there. They have been pushing on different people, but never pushed on each other. My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. I didn't mean to say that you could not possibly be town, but not responding for so long is something a town just wouldn't do in normal conditions. You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat. This is the kind of non confrontational thing I'm talking about. At this point in the day, it was unclear which meat was going to get lynched, so if templar were scum he wouldn't want to piss off either of them and risk a case on him D2. Read his filter, he then goes through an awkward series of editing posts trying to reconcile his town read on MM with voting him Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:
Also, my general opinion of mysterymeat hadn't changed from my initial post where I said he was slightly town, but I over-reacted to his complete and total lack of defense (I also thought he had given up). edit: Yeah I said he couldn't be town. That was wrong of me, I should have said he couldn't be town since he wasn't defending at all, but he clearly is now. So this is all a bit weird, and as soon as I say something to him about it, HE CHANGES HIS VOTE BACK TO MM. Read the entire quote below: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 12:06 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 12:04 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:59 Hobbitus wrote:Templar, this King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game. is enough for you to change your mind about MM? Despite Tolkien's beautiful argument? MysteryMeat's contribution is him trying to pose as normal town when he hasn't been posting much. My (limited) experience with lurker scum is that they hide until the second half of Day 1 before posting a "reads" list, and giving a vote in the hopes it'll let them off the hook for any suspicion, and voting for a possible bandwagon based on the general feelings in the thread. Let's be real here, NO ONE in this thread thought I was scum until GlowingBear (I believe Haru had already removed his vote at the time), so he figured it'd be best to continue the trend. Cats a safe vote. A bandwagon on meatpudding, but Cats is under suspicion so his vote won't be heavily scruitinized D2 if meatpudding turns up green.
It's just impossible for him not to even MENTION that I pushed for a lynch on a player for being deadweight and being FINE with a mislynch if that happens, if that's why he's so bent on voting Cats. It's just ridiculously impossible, like holy shit. I never changed my general opinion of MysteryMeat. However, he's sort of looking frantic at this point, so I'm considering changing my vote back. I don't like changing my vote back and forth so I'm waiting until a conclusion is being reached. On June 23 2014 12:00 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:47 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:27 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:12 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Just from rereading the thread over my town reads would be
Scott: He votes on himself because he feels that the game isn't for him. Then thanks me for telling him to keep fighting if he was town. If Scott was mafia, I doubt he would be feeling alone, as he would have a mafia qt to post in and ask for advice. He hasn't contributed a whole lot but i really think he is town.
King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game.
The_Templar:
Says scumhunting isn't essential day 1, doesn't like scott, and is willing to lynch him because he has no scum read.
Like the reason i don't like CATS, Tolkien, is because they seem very ready to lynch people, and throwing scum on people to sway town into voting on them. (this isn't OMGUS) but teemu on the other hand votes on people to get reactions and reads. I think there is a very clear distinction. I usually don't pay too much attention, but in this case imo the distinction is pretty clear.
Teemu: I really like teemu, he's pushing for information, and getting reads. He thinks pudding is scum, which i think pudding could be town.
Nydus: Hasn't posted a ton recently but i think he's pretty town. The way i distinguish between his town and mafia play is how objective he is to the game. When he's town his reads are more selfish and when he's mafia his reads are really objective.
Tolkien: i honestly don't like, once again not for OMGUS, but he wants to lynch lurkers, which i don't agree with. If they keep on lurking they could get modkilled. He also is telling blue roles how to play the game. There is more than one way to play mafia, and i think he's just fishing for roles to kill in the night honestly. I also don't like the fact that when people talked about my inconsistency on cat's and tolkien. No one really mentioned the fact that there could be a relationship between tolkien and I. IMO if mafia are going to go for an inconsitancy like that it happens for a reason.
HARUH: Leaning pretty town. I like his reads early on in the game.
Epishade: I don't know atm. I get this odd feeling like he's playing slightly different than he was the last time i played with him when he was town. Don't know what this really means, but could potentially expand on this on d2 if im alive.
in the mafia fence pile
jabber
glowingbear (first post striked me as really odd)
pudding (said he could be town, but i think teemu is pretty town and teemu is pretty good at finding mafia) Why are me and Tolkien on your townpile if you don't like either of us?Where was Tolkien telling blue roles how to play the game and how is that scummy? What is this possible relationship between you and Tolkien? Can you elaborate on why the people in your mafia pile are scummy? I'm going to help meat a bit and answer that relationship question. This post was the initial lynch post, where tolkien did something similar to what I did later (although I've retracted mine in favor of the still very scummy meatpudding) I'm sorry but i really can't see what you're getting at. How does that post help explain a relationship between MM and Tolkien? It got the town riled up against MM for the most part. It also caused my vote to change to MM to pressure him, which made him come out and start defending himself. Now MM is defending himself from Tolkien among other people. This thread has gotten really, really weird. To clarify: I am mentally voting for MM at this point, and if nothing has changed in the next 40 or so minutes, I'll unvote meatpudding. But I don't want to spam the vote list. He's so pliant. It just seems super scummy to me. It also makes me think that both meats are actually town, and either wagon would have resulted in a mislynch D1. On June 27 2014 11:56 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +
Your first point is silly. At that point, I was realizing that MysteryMeat had been completely unresponsive. At that point I started filter-diving him and found the post about scott, which you are making into much more of a deal than it actually is. Show nested quote + My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. How am I making too big a deal out of it when half the reason you voted him was bc of the scott post, which was quite obviously not what MM meant? Show nested quote + I edit a lot of my posts outside mafia btw, generally to clear up a point that I didn't explain well. This is a piece of bad practice in general for me. It's also why I'm not good at arguing. Show nested quote + I don't post all of my thoughts in real-time. I generally take time to express my thoughts, sorry. If you take so much time carefully considering your posts, why do you have to re-explain them after they are posted? And, hun, don't be pouty that I'm asking you questions. You can change your mind as much as you want; as Nydus said, it's good to constantly re-evaluate your reads. The issue is that you change your mind when other people pressure you to. Note: I am not going to bother trying to argue why the scumread on me 'says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer' is bs. also, : mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum) are usually used on players that flip opinions too fast, faster than flipping burgers during the night because this is just suspicious, especially if Templar flips green. normally, people would not flip their reads so quickly, over a span of 12 hours. none of his reads on n2 and d3 rubbed well against me simply because there was too much of a dramatic change in opinions that could not really be explained. Most of his reasoning shows panic or hastiness to end the game fast: + Show Spoiler +On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me.
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. On June 27 2014 12:58 Hobbitus wrote:
Also, Haru's argument that tamburini was scummier than anyone else bc he's annoying is garbs, too much of a knee jerk reaction for town? note: I am also not going to dispute why this read is wrong. On June 27 2014 23:54 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:46 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia. Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads. 'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that? Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised. What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post. That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim. And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's. If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches. I did a quick filterdive of both of you and indeed, I can draw parallel on how you two voted and pushed. That is probably how you 2 got on the jabber wagon on d2 too. Your push on meatpudding: 'Having said all of these, although I still have a feeling that TheKingOfCats might be scum, I'll vore for meatpudding as I've got now a stronger read on him.' Templar's push on scott:' Yeah, I feel much better about voting scott than Cats, as Cats will probably contribute (although I have no idea how much, I thought he wasn't going to much today).' Templar's reasons for changing off scott: 'Please unvote yourself and keep your head in the game. Also, I'd rather not waste a lynch when you can just ask to be replaced.' Subsequent push on meatpudding: 'Seems to be making stuff up/being inconsistent. Throwing out random accusations doesn't make you a scum hunter.' Templar's push on MM(pressure vote): 'Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...' goes back to meatpudding: 'You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.' goes back to MM: 'Yeah, MM1 is making less and less sense as this goes on. And meatpudding has shown a willingness to post what he thinks later (although why is he avoiding the god damned issue of him vs MM, I have no idea).' what he did was quite logical. Both MM and meatpudding were obvious targets in d1 since they were incoherent and made no sense, which everyone pointed out. In fact, Templar is more town than you here because he actually bothered to pressure MM for reads so that he could compare which meat to lynch. While you stuck onto meatpudding simply because your scumread on him is stronger than your scumread on kotc. D2: glowingbear's push on me(pressure vote): 'You've been too quiet, and I need you to reply this post of mine' glowingbear's vote on jabber: 'Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now.' Templar's push on jabber: 'In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately' 'Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point.' Both of you came to the same conclusion that jabber isn't trying to respond to anything at the time of the lynch. Both of you are really similar in your voting and reads. Whatever you have said about Templar can seriously be applied on you too. Yes our reads were/are very similar. But notice how jabber didn't get (mis)lynched. Everyone that's been mislynched has happened with pretty much everyone assuming you and Templar are town lol. I normally condense all my points into 3 major points, but I think this warrants a point by itself: LOL POST LIMIT
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On June 29 2014 15:10 HaruRH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2014 00:53 HaruRH wrote:I have filter dived hobbitus properly (I made sure to re-read all posts and link them to context, such as what he was replying to, when was it and what was he thinking at that time). I came up with a few damning evidence. At least, for me. 1)Rapid change of tone and willingness to throw away their imageAt the beginning, hobbitus was playing very passive with no strong pushes at all. He was mainly interested to read people's response and come up with ideas, then go with the general flow. He has never strayed away from the general lynch targets (D1, MM (lynched->town)) (D2, epishade ->not lynched). His reasoning have also been very politically correct thus far. (Nothing that seems scummy at all, answers all questions properly) + Show Spoiler +On June 24 2014 07:26 Hobbitus wrote:Bear, I am leaning slightly town on you. I can follow the logic of your arguments and you put a decent amount of effort into your reads, which is a good start. Well, that precisely, it's a start. You were a little later to the game than the rest of us, so I need more time/posts to get a stronger read. I think this is your most interesting post so far: Show nested quote + I think Haru is dangerous because he leads our reads. He ask questions to be answered and, therefore, changes the route of our reasoning. If he is scum, he has got us on his hands.
But I never saw any scum sign in his posts. I think he ask good questions that may help town. So, I think he is townie. I read Haru as town as well, but I like that you are still thinking of him even when he is in your town pile. On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny On June 23 2014 11:31 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:21 MysteryMeat1 wrote:On June 23 2014 11:02 Hobbitus wrote:
MM is so bad, and the case against him is so strong it's actually ludicrous, which is why I'm entertaining that idea at all. I don't want to believe anyone is that terrible. I find this actually quite amusing, you don't agree with my reads, and call me bad which is fine. But if we want to talk about past games, then in mine i successfully predicted the roleblocker, got town to lynch him ,and pinged out the other 3 mafia. I'm a town you don't want to lynch d1, unless your mafia. then go ahead and lynch me. Not to be rude, but I don't really care about your past games. The options I see for you are: 1. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes 2. you are town and made a series of bad mistakes which scum are using to their advantage 3. you are mafia and made a series of bad mistakes 4. you are mafia and being bussed to make other players look good If 1 is true, I think you'd be more of a hindrance than an asset to town for the rest of the game If 2 is true, at least I have some leads for D2 scum If 3 is true, you're scum, which is all the matters in the end If 4 is true, you are scum, which is fantastic, and I might be able to use you to figure out other scum In any of those four cases, I don't mind you getting lynched On June 25 2014 19:21 Hobbitus wrote:
Actually, can anyone else who finds teemu suspicious make a case on him? I'll do it myself if I have time but I just don't know if I will today :/ On June 27 2014 09:50 Hobbitus wrote:
Uhh, where did my text go??
I said, fun fact: Templar wasn't voted either day also
If you want to examine us both D3 that might be a good idea, since we haven't been in the spotlight at all. PS: Notice the use of words 'might', 'quite', 'think', which indicates passivity hobbitus hard push anyone? you asked. Well, on n2, on a flip of a switch, hobbitus instantly turned into aggressive|hobbitus, with nearly 0 uses of such passive tones. He turned aggressive overnight, over a span of an hour, because of a slight suspicion of Templar that turned into a full blown 'case'. Not only hobbitus, but glowingbear as well. This is generally not a good sign, since they are not consistent with their own image and are willing to blow their towny image in exchange for a potential mislynch. 'Why would that be a threat? If Templar flips green, we can lynch them both, right?' My answer is that today might potentially be the last day, because of how we don't know the scum count. If there are 4 scum, we have 5 town left and today would be the final day. Their image will not matter as long as they get the last town lynched. If there are 3 scum, we have 6 town left and today will not be the final day, and all mislynches will cause tons of havoc given how much they are pushing right now. Therefore, I came up with 2 conclusion: 1) both hobbitus and glowingbear are scum because both showed that they are willing to 'flip their reads altogether' just to lynch today. 2) Either one of hobbitus or glowingbear is the scum, and one of them is leading the Templar train while the other is hoodwinked into following him. The third option exists, which is that 3) They are masons and agreed to push together, but I highly doubt this is the answer. 2) General lack of empathy for townThis is even more apparent when he turned into aggressive|hobbitus. + Show Spoiler +On June 28 2014 11:28 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2014 01:26 The_Templar wrote:On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? (1) I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me. (2)
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. (3) That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. (4) I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. (5) (1) Because it's the last thing anyone following the current trend would expect. And you were extremely quiet along with GlowingBear. (2) Sure it doesn't, that's why GlowingBear made sure to hint you two were the same alignment. (3) And you very conveniently chose the exact opposite of the lynched behaviors. (4) That worked out pretty well. You changed your opinion of cats to town right before he died, and look! he's town! (5) It's accurate because a lot of your reasoning for your new methods was based on the fact you had been wrong about everyone…? Am I missing something here? 1. Maybe you haven't noticed but town is fucked. Scum has no reason to risk anything with an "against the grain" play. 2. What? I have no control over what he says? 3-5. What are you even talking about? I am not a total moron, if I realize something is not working for me, I try something new. Cats flipping town fits with my new way of thinking. Does that mean I'm 100% right about everyone? No, but at least I have a theory about how scum is playing that makes sense now. , this is not a major point and can easily be disputed, but for someone like hobbitus, who I read as flowing with town agenda for the past few days, this is not a good read. 3) Flipping readsGranted, this is another disputable point, but surprisingly enough, most scum flips their read during the last day. For example, in TL Order Mafia, all the scum flipped their reads almost immediately during the lylo (I know we shouldn't be talking about other games, sorry!). This could be explained by the fact that most people are exhausted with the game by now (D3~D5 is where people start being exhausted with games. Likewise, I am exhausted and this is my final big push) and people are more susceptible to any strong reads thrown at them. They are willing to end the game quick, even if it means a loss. However, his flips are backed up with last minute reasonings that doesn't mix well with me. + Show Spoiler +his reads on N1 On June 24 2014 08:17 Hobbitus wrote:Just to throw it out there, my current reads: Lord Tolkien-scummy Jabberwockzerg-potential scum Just talk more plz HaruRH-towny I like this post a lot Show nested quote + So, there's tons of information to get from letting meatpudding get lynched, but there's little info for MM getting lynched? Feels like a soft defense by quickly dispelling the thought of gathering info from MM mislynch. why do you think this? Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 22:14 HaruRH wrote:
EBWOP:
Because if you read teemu as scum, you cannot read tolkien as scum. Both can't be scum at the same time. It doesn't make sense. Thekingofthecats-scummy NydusHerMain-on the fence GlowingBear-slightly towny Meatpudding-on the fence leaning scum for trying to predict votes, thanks for pointing that out bear leaning town for this Show nested quote + I certainly don't get what Tolkien and MM have to do with one another, and Tolkien is taking steps as far away from him as possible. Teemursu-potential scum Calls tolkien out but not for the scummiest things tolkien does Epishade-towny The_Templar-towny D2 On June 25 2014 07:44 Hobbitus wrote:
templar
Town: haru
Wolfy: kotc
OUTTED WOLF: jabber
Everyone else I have no idea rn, like I said, after the flips I really feel I need to reevaluate.
N2 On June 27 2014 12:56 Hobbitus wrote:
Summary post:
Reads (and stuff I'm thinking about atm)
HaruRH-scum (says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer)
Thekingofthecats-town (gets caught up in the details)
GlowingBear-town (adorable but in that clueless animal way) (could be wrong, suspicious about blue role posts/not changing his vote last night)
Meatpudding-town (suspect both wagons D1 were town, never had convincing case against)
Epishade-scum (see post)
mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum)
The_Templar-scum (see post) (also, really conscious of how posts sound when they don't even sound scummy/clarifying when he doesn't need to etc/not changing his vote last night)
Teemu-town (for actions during D2 EOD, consolidation of votes etc)
What I think we should focus on D3:
-why was Tolkien shot? (My guess is that it had something to do with mp, and that it was probably mafia who killed him)
-take a look at the whole bear calling haru blue and then haru being roleblocked thing, mafia shouldn't roleblock based on the opinion of one townie.
-possibility: if bear, templar and epi are scum, it could explain why templar/bear never changed their vote last night. didn't want epi to get lynched and yet knew the case on nydus was really stupid Reasons for flip: Templar: On June 27 2014 10:50 Hobbitus wrote:So he originally voted on mp with a scum read on him, and a "slight town" read on MM. Then, after MM was being weird MM: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 10:57 The_Templar wrote:
Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town... I don't like this. MM defending or not defending himself doesn't mean anything, neither mafia nor town want to be lynched. And yet that's somehow enough to get him to change his vote to MM. And the bit about Scott... I dunno, that sounds like a very contrived argument to me. MM said scott should keep fighting to the end so town would win, not that fighting to the end MADE scott town, I thought that was fairly obvious. Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:34 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:18 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Templar also declares meatPudding as scum, and says im slightly town. nothing else had been posted by either of us, and he's willing to vote on me. Says there is no way i could be town here and then votes on me. I'd say at least one of the mafia are going to be between tolkien,cats,templar. If we are lucky then two of them would be there. They have been pushing on different people, but never pushed on each other. My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. I didn't mean to say that you could not possibly be town, but not responding for so long is something a town just wouldn't do in normal conditions. You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat. This is the kind of non confrontational thing I'm talking about. At this point in the day, it was unclear which meat was going to get lynched, so if templar were scum he wouldn't want to piss off either of them and risk a case on him D2. Read his filter, he then goes through an awkward series of editing posts trying to reconcile his town read on MM with voting him Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:38 The_Templar wrote:
Also, my general opinion of mysterymeat hadn't changed from my initial post where I said he was slightly town, but I over-reacted to his complete and total lack of defense (I also thought he had given up). edit: Yeah I said he couldn't be town. That was wrong of me, I should have said he couldn't be town since he wasn't defending at all, but he clearly is now. So this is all a bit weird, and as soon as I say something to him about it, HE CHANGES HIS VOTE BACK TO MM. Read the entire quote below: Show nested quote +On June 23 2014 12:06 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 12:04 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:59 Hobbitus wrote:Templar, this King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game. is enough for you to change your mind about MM? Despite Tolkien's beautiful argument? MysteryMeat's contribution is him trying to pose as normal town when he hasn't been posting much. My (limited) experience with lurker scum is that they hide until the second half of Day 1 before posting a "reads" list, and giving a vote in the hopes it'll let them off the hook for any suspicion, and voting for a possible bandwagon based on the general feelings in the thread. Let's be real here, NO ONE in this thread thought I was scum until GlowingBear (I believe Haru had already removed his vote at the time), so he figured it'd be best to continue the trend. Cats a safe vote. A bandwagon on meatpudding, but Cats is under suspicion so his vote won't be heavily scruitinized D2 if meatpudding turns up green.
It's just impossible for him not to even MENTION that I pushed for a lynch on a player for being deadweight and being FINE with a mislynch if that happens, if that's why he's so bent on voting Cats. It's just ridiculously impossible, like holy shit. I never changed my general opinion of MysteryMeat. However, he's sort of looking frantic at this point, so I'm considering changing my vote back. I don't like changing my vote back and forth so I'm waiting until a conclusion is being reached. On June 23 2014 12:00 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:47 The_Templar wrote:On June 23 2014 11:27 TheKingOfTheCats wrote:On June 23 2014 11:12 MysteryMeat1 wrote:
Just from rereading the thread over my town reads would be
Scott: He votes on himself because he feels that the game isn't for him. Then thanks me for telling him to keep fighting if he was town. If Scott was mafia, I doubt he would be feeling alone, as he would have a mafia qt to post in and ask for advice. He hasn't contributed a whole lot but i really think he is town.
King:
As its been pointed out by a few people, of my glaring inconsitancy by condeming cats for lynching regardless of alignment. I also don't like how tolkien said it. Missed the sentence in his post where he said it. Unlike teemu and nydus i get my reads from more of a general flow of the game.
The_Templar:
Says scumhunting isn't essential day 1, doesn't like scott, and is willing to lynch him because he has no scum read.
Like the reason i don't like CATS, Tolkien, is because they seem very ready to lynch people, and throwing scum on people to sway town into voting on them. (this isn't OMGUS) but teemu on the other hand votes on people to get reactions and reads. I think there is a very clear distinction. I usually don't pay too much attention, but in this case imo the distinction is pretty clear.
Teemu: I really like teemu, he's pushing for information, and getting reads. He thinks pudding is scum, which i think pudding could be town.
Nydus: Hasn't posted a ton recently but i think he's pretty town. The way i distinguish between his town and mafia play is how objective he is to the game. When he's town his reads are more selfish and when he's mafia his reads are really objective.
Tolkien: i honestly don't like, once again not for OMGUS, but he wants to lynch lurkers, which i don't agree with. If they keep on lurking they could get modkilled. He also is telling blue roles how to play the game. There is more than one way to play mafia, and i think he's just fishing for roles to kill in the night honestly. I also don't like the fact that when people talked about my inconsistency on cat's and tolkien. No one really mentioned the fact that there could be a relationship between tolkien and I. IMO if mafia are going to go for an inconsitancy like that it happens for a reason.
HARUH: Leaning pretty town. I like his reads early on in the game.
Epishade: I don't know atm. I get this odd feeling like he's playing slightly different than he was the last time i played with him when he was town. Don't know what this really means, but could potentially expand on this on d2 if im alive.
in the mafia fence pile
jabber
glowingbear (first post striked me as really odd)
pudding (said he could be town, but i think teemu is pretty town and teemu is pretty good at finding mafia) Why are me and Tolkien on your townpile if you don't like either of us?Where was Tolkien telling blue roles how to play the game and how is that scummy? What is this possible relationship between you and Tolkien? Can you elaborate on why the people in your mafia pile are scummy? I'm going to help meat a bit and answer that relationship question. This post was the initial lynch post, where tolkien did something similar to what I did later (although I've retracted mine in favor of the still very scummy meatpudding) I'm sorry but i really can't see what you're getting at. How does that post help explain a relationship between MM and Tolkien? It got the town riled up against MM for the most part. It also caused my vote to change to MM to pressure him, which made him come out and start defending himself. Now MM is defending himself from Tolkien among other people. This thread has gotten really, really weird. To clarify: I am mentally voting for MM at this point, and if nothing has changed in the next 40 or so minutes, I'll unvote meatpudding. But I don't want to spam the vote list. He's so pliant. It just seems super scummy to me. It also makes me think that both meats are actually town, and either wagon would have resulted in a mislynch D1. On June 27 2014 11:56 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +
Your first point is silly. At that point, I was realizing that MysteryMeat had been completely unresponsive. At that point I started filter-diving him and found the post about scott, which you are making into much more of a deal than it actually is. Show nested quote + My vote was a knee-jerk reaction to your actions initially contradicting your post about scott and was also a pressure post, shifting the majority from pudding back to you. How am I making too big a deal out of it when half the reason you voted him was bc of the scott post, which was quite obviously not what MM meant? Show nested quote + I edit a lot of my posts outside mafia btw, generally to clear up a point that I didn't explain well. This is a piece of bad practice in general for me. It's also why I'm not good at arguing. Show nested quote + I don't post all of my thoughts in real-time. I generally take time to express my thoughts, sorry. If you take so much time carefully considering your posts, why do you have to re-explain them after they are posted? And, hun, don't be pouty that I'm asking you questions. You can change your mind as much as you want; as Nydus said, it's good to constantly re-evaluate your reads. The issue is that you change your mind when other people pressure you to. Note: I am not going to bother trying to argue why the scumread on me 'says tolkien was shot bc on to mafia-obvious answer' is bs. also, : mtamburini-town (too annoying to be scum) are usually used on players that flip opinions too fast, faster than flipping burgers during the night because this is just suspicious, especially if Templar flips green. normally, people would not flip their reads so quickly, over a span of 12 hours. none of his reads on n2 and d3 rubbed well against me simply because there was too much of a dramatic change in opinions that could not really be explained. Most of his reasoning shows panic or hastiness to end the game fast: + Show Spoiler +On June 27 2014 23:28 Hobbitus wrote:
Why would scum push so hard, so obviously, and at the same exact time? I decided to push Templar today, if bear does the same exact thing, it makes no difference to me.
This is my first game, I am changing my reads, even completely flipping my opinion on people as I figure out what's going on. All I know is not a single scum has been lynched yet, and after mm and Tolkien died I had to seriously reconsider what I thought made someone scummy. That change my opinion on cats to town, which was confirmed last night. I also didn't really see the case on nydus (but was behind so I didn't know if I missed something major). Before that I had been wrong about everyone, so it seems my new method of thinking is more accurate. On June 27 2014 12:58 Hobbitus wrote:
Also, Haru's argument that tamburini was scummier than anyone else bc he's annoying is garbs, too much of a knee jerk reaction for town? note: I am also not going to dispute why this read is wrong. On June 27 2014 23:54 Hobbitus wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2014 23:46 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 23:26 GlowingBear wrote:On June 27 2014 23:00 HaruRH wrote:On June 27 2014 12:59 GlowingBear wrote:
I'm having a feeling that I'm dying this night. So, I would like to share thoughts in case I don't live.
I've being filter diving a lot this night and was waiting for the night results. While filter diving, an idea crossed my mind.
We've been discussing how contradictory some players were looking and we were judging their alignment solely on that.
What happened?
4 townies died. Of course, 1 modkill and 1 nightkill. But still, ALL OF THEM were contradictory.
Which means that being contradictory isn't necessary a scum signal. It may help identify one, but it's secondary.
If we've lost so many by attacking their contradictory posts, what do we have here? A very consistent Mafia, that is. A Mafia who is well connected and using the information they have to lead the mislynches.
To find the Mafia in this game we must not search for people being inconsistent in their posts. We have to search for people that are not compromising themselves in their votes, in their analysis. People that are not raising flags but following town misreads so they will win a mislynch. They contribute for the mislynch but they do not compromise themselves by doing so.
There are some who are doing this. In order of my suspicions, The_Templar, Epishade, Hobbitus, Teemu, Haru. (Have in my this takes off my scumread on meatpudding).
I think The_Templar is the one shines the most here, IMO. If you filter dive through his filters, he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads. It started with meatpudding, then he found a better vote on MysteryMeat1. Next, he went to jabber when he completely acted contradictory (easy vote, everybody was voting on contradictory people).
If you are not sure what I am talking about, dive through his filters. You will see his passivity (is this a word?) then his easy votes.
Have in mind that this interpretation implies that Mafia really did split their votes on Day2 so Nydus would be an easy kill.
One last thing: dive through scott's short filter and compare to mtamburini's. I haven't done this but I think this is important, it might give some clues on his alignment.
I hope this help townies on D3!
I probably had more to say but it's getting close to the deadline and I don't think I have more time to "evolve" my logic.
PS: I've asked a list on top scum and top town so it might give me an insight on who are the Mason Couple, but I have failed to do so =/
PS: I'm not sure if this is obvious or not, but this is my first Mafia game ever, so this insight came to me...
PS3: FORGOT TO CHECK KOTC FILTERS PLEASE DO SO.
I lost you there. So mafias are consistent? Towns are inconsistent? You're flipping all the knowledge I ever had of mafia. Also, passivity is not a good case for scum. much like I can call you out for being inconsistent with your reads. 'he is not starting pushes to force town agenda. He is actually following these misleads'. you're doing the same till d3. So can I lynch you based on that? Mafia does not want do draw attention. They will try to look productive but actually they are just trying to not be compromised. What I'm trying to say in the bolded part is that townies are so lost in this game here that they start being inconsistent in their reads. Townies are looking at a poor reasoning and assuming that it's a mafia thing, which may be, but it's secondary. It came to me that it is not the best way to catch mafia, as we can see by the results. The key to catch mafia is understanding their behaviour on not wanting to get lynch more than trying to find scum. And I found this pattern while interpreting Templar's post. That night post my have came poorly worded because I wrote it on rush in case I was the victim. And I don't believe I've being doing the same. I've being reasoning my votes ever since the beginning, not simply following. Filter dive me and compare it to templar's. If you still believe that I'm behaving just as templar's, then stick your vote on whichever you find most likely. Just have in mind that looking for contradictions on people's posts led us to 2 mislynches. I did a quick filterdive of both of you and indeed, I can draw parallel on how you two voted and pushed. That is probably how you 2 got on the jabber wagon on d2 too. Your push on meatpudding: 'Having said all of these, although I still have a feeling that TheKingOfCats might be scum, I'll vore for meatpudding as I've got now a stronger read on him.' Templar's push on scott:' Yeah, I feel much better about voting scott than Cats, as Cats will probably contribute (although I have no idea how much, I thought he wasn't going to much today).' Templar's reasons for changing off scott: 'Please unvote yourself and keep your head in the game. Also, I'd rather not waste a lynch when you can just ask to be replaced.' Subsequent push on meatpudding: 'Seems to be making stuff up/being inconsistent. Throwing out random accusations doesn't make you a scum hunter.' Templar's push on MM(pressure vote): 'Wow, is MysteryMeat not defending himself at all right now? Wtf? He even told Scott to fight to the end if he was town...' goes back to meatpudding: 'You didn't react, now you have, and since your read makes sense now, I'm switching back to the other meat.' goes back to MM: 'Yeah, MM1 is making less and less sense as this goes on. And meatpudding has shown a willingness to post what he thinks later (although why is he avoiding the god damned issue of him vs MM, I have no idea).' what he did was quite logical. Both MM and meatpudding were obvious targets in d1 since they were incoherent and made no sense, which everyone pointed out. In fact, Templar is more town than you here because he actually bothered to pressure MM for reads so that he could compare which meat to lynch. While you stuck onto meatpudding simply because your scumread on him is stronger than your scumread on kotc. D2: glowingbear's push on me(pressure vote): 'You've been too quiet, and I need you to reply this post of mine' glowingbear's vote on jabber: 'Now that I believe we could be in a town VS town scenario, and after jabb tried to "hide" on my argument that flips are really important... I'm definitive now.' Templar's push on jabber: 'In the battle of the meats, he takes a neutral stance immediately' 'Basically he's just agreeing with people without offering an opinion at this point.' Both of you came to the same conclusion that jabber isn't trying to respond to anything at the time of the lynch. Both of you are really similar in your voting and reads. Whatever you have said about Templar can seriously be applied on you too. Yes our reads were/are very similar. But notice how jabber didn't get (mis)lynched. Everyone that's been mislynched has happened with pretty much everyone assuming you and Templar are town lol. I normally condense all my points into 3 major points, but I think this warrants a point by itself: LOL POST LIMIT
Missed DEFINITELY
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Holy shit okay I was wrong on teemu it didnt make sense for him to come off nydus onto Ephi If nydus was going to be the lynch (ML)
But I still think I could be right on Templar
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Haru, who on earth would decrypt such random logic? LOL it would be considered the highest WIFOM of the universe. The whole wise universe.
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Fk it ill just do this.
I have filter dived hobbitus properly
Will hobbitus hard push anyone?
Definitely, this is not a major point and can easily be disputed
Copchecks are usually used on players that flip opinions too fast
Glowingbear apparently came up with the same conclusion as Hobbitus during the course of N2
Tonight is definitely the night that decides our fate.
I spent 3 hours layering my paragraphs like that.
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I think I want to say, Templar's next.
Basically, anybody who could have voted me to lynch me right at the end, and chose to do so otherwise, I don't think is scum right now. So I would suggest putting off an mtamburini and Hobbit vote for now, as if they had voted for me, that would have won them the game, and they chose not to.
Templar and Poofter are my biggest possible scums right now.
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HAHAHAHAHAHA that is SO funny dude HAHAHAHAHA
I'm town, by the way. You may know by now after I lynched Teemu
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On June 29 2014 15:23 GlowingBear wrote:
HAHAHAHAHAHA that is SO funny dude HAHAHAHAHA
I'm town, by the way. You may know by now after I lynched Teemu
Talking about Haru's attempt on encrypting a message HAHAHAHAHA oh god HAHAHAHAHA
Ok, I'm going to stop spamming and try to sleep
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So we need to do things tonight. 1) vote analysis of eod. 2) Haru needs to give full unbiased reads. 3) everyone needs to look at eod on all three days the last was the best by far info wise.
Teemu was afk on meat right?
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EPT
