EPTDoctor Who Mafia 2 - Page 17
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Kita --> thoughts on kush Everyone --> we should look at hopeless And as pointed out, given that rayn could use a night action to block conversions, it's unlikely that conversions happen any time, and much more likely it's a night action. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
You were supposed to say they were scumbuddies. I have a post in another window about the Kush/Vivax interactions on Kush's ability being one or multi shot. You were going to slip up and be lazy. I was going to post that and go AHA! And then we were going to lynch Kush and yourself and declare glorious town victory. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 07 2014 01:50 kitaman27 wrote: I'll do that in a sec, although I'm a butt and have to leave before lynch.With the crazy number of town power roles this game, I think a 2 man mafia team is pretty much out of the question, which would mean we're likely dealing with 3-4 (probably 3 since survivor is also in play). Having 1 scum at the start of the game doesn't make a lot of sense since if they get lynched d1, then the game ends and that's kinda lame. Maybe the conversion role is only one shot? Another thing that kush has against him vs vivax is that I'm inclinded to believe both of his jailkeeper actions. We know he jailed you night two for sure, so a night one jail is also likely. kush on the other hand doesn't have verifiable night actions, though I actually think a conversion makes more sense for kush than original mafia. If you had to come up with a team for kush, Y, and Z and vivax, Y, and Z who would it be? I dunno. Unless hopeless is mafia AND vivax is mafia, we know that vivax visited me D1 (either one of them being town would mean he visited). I didn't get converted, nothing untowards happened to me. Based on that and JJD NOT being a medic or anything (couldn't have been Vivax killing and JJD protecting), Vivax feels like an unlikely mafia, because wtf was he doing. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'm out until tonight EST, putting vote on kush, will check in from phone I guess. Super paranoid, but in the end, the BEST explanation for "kita has too much information, but therefore is town, because scum wouldn't reveal the extra information" (Without any thought about the fact that HE STILL HAS TOO MUCH INFORMATION REGARDLESS OF ALIGNMENT AND WHERE DOES HE GET IT FROM) "rayn had conversion info, so maybe kita did too" (Without any thought about whether two townies with conversion info makes sense or not) AND FLUIDITY leave me to just go with the simple explanation which is that kush is scum. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'd love to hear thrawn's thoughts on vivax, kita, kita's role speculation, good nuke targets (during day, before we know kush or someone else's alignment), why djo is town for this On April 06 2014 07:12 thrawn2112 wrote: because I don't generally see scum trying to solve the game by assuming they're not town i dunno. i changed my mind about you in the last couple hours and gained kita as a scumread because a combination of austin's points on kita/kush, my own reading of kush's filter, and I just realized that the way you're postnig prob makes you town. becasue you are trying to solve the game in a way where you have to assume that you are town. so Kush, for sure. then maybe kita? If those two are mafia, especially if kush is mafia, then I think kita was also probably mafia during D1. I think we have 3 scum right now otherwise this game would probably be over already, which means that we maybe started with 2 mafia on D1? so my picks for those two are kush/kita. as far as a converted read.... i need to read amiko. previously I would have said this was you but right now I'm not really feeling it (I mean, you can't go "Okay guys, ASSUME I'M MAFIA (when you're not being attacked and trying to show how you being mafia just doesn't fit). Here's how the game works, everything falls into place, my buddies are B, C, and D, we're all mafia, and we're totally gonna win. NOBODY EVER DOES THAT YOU CAN'T DO THAT AND SO NOT DOING THAT IS NOT A GOOD REASON FOR A FLIPPED READ ON DJO). | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If kush is mafia, do you belive he used the scumometer and received a result that kita is town? If not, what do you disbelieve? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 07 2014 05:47 Tehpoofter wrote: Well, yes.Well either the bus is real or town might have just lost. Given kush's response, I would hope it's the former. ALSO HEY Kush used scumometer? Scumometer said Kita was town? If kush is getting bussed right now, what's the biggest point of this day where you think mafia may have been pushing a mislynch or pushing things off kush? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'm not fully at computer, but will be around later tonight est. gg kush | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
(1) Kush was Cyber Leader. I think starting with a single scum in this game is absurd, as a single lynch or a town roleblock would ... end the game, more or less. So I think it's likely there were two to start with. (2) We would have lost D3 if there were 4 scum. Therefore, only 2-3 scum total at that point, kush dead, only 1-2 now. (3) I think infinite conversions is...wonky. If you don't start with 1 scum, and you could convert every night, you'd add people too quickly, and town could NEVER catch up (1 conversion per night (plus some KP) and only 1 lynch per day). (4) Therefore, conversions are limited. Either a certain number, not every night, or, what I think is most likely...only kush can convert. If he's "Cyber Leader", makes sense that he's doing the converting, and when they lose their leader they can't convert? Maybe. I personally find this more likely than every other night, and PROBABLY more likely than every night choose to convert or shoot (who would shoot when you could convert?) (4a) The scenario where only kush can convert is wonky because the game is STILL somewhat over if he dies early and it's just 1 remaining scummer all game. So maybe it's just 1 for the team? Or the every other night? I just don't understand ever shooting when converting is an option, and I don't think it's POSSIBLE for there to be 2 KP yesterday AND a conversion, that's OP. Whatever, this is for later. But I think kush being Cyber Leader is important. Nuke targets Vivax not a target Amiko not a target Me not a target Hopeless, Thrawn, Poofter, Kita Gut says kita. So much of the reason that kush was scummy was posts ABOUT kita, kita didn't have a townie-smelling D2 for me, he followed the pattern I expect from scum kita (townie explosion D1 --> can't keep being townie explosion). Plus, if kita isn't mafia, kush just claims a red check on him, we MAYBE lynch him (he looks scummy AND we have a check now), kush wins the game with others. Kita just makes sense ESPECIALLY when looking at kush. Kush's comments, the claimed green check, kita very very very very likely mafia. He put a crapload of work in there. He had some...townie sounding stuff after it. Joking about vivax and kush not being together, me saying I was supposed to catch him, and him being slightly silly in response looks...good. Not great, but it feels townie. So, his D3 feels townie to me, but the kush side of things looks bad for him. (Paranoid flip side: If kush is scum and kita is scum, and kush is CYBER LEADER, kush just claims a frigging red check on kita. We lynch kita, kush looks better, PROBABLY keeps on surviving? MAYBE gets to convert more? Okay so...if kush and kita both scum, kush didn't have reason to push kita over himself, so he's likely NOT more important than kita or has used up all his juice?) Good buddy for him is thrawn, maybe a kita + kush start --> thrawn conversion. Again, all the stuff about thrawn feeling more out of it/less involved/whatever applies after his start. For all the asking to go look at vivax and kita and toad, thrawn not doing so makes me very wary if kita is mafia. thrawn coming in recently and writing a post about how kita is probably town and also not thinking in the way I'm thinking about why kush would/wouldn't fake a check looks BAD for thrawn as a thrawn kita team. Thrawn feels....LESS scummy if kita isn't mafia, it's part associative here, but mainly I just don't get the sense that he's looking at things in the same way I look at them, he's observing them from the wrong angle. I swear that I will read hopeless one day. He's done nothing that yells town to me, and is hanging on by a claim. We don't know that we can trust it, only that, on D1, he totally saw Vivax and JJD visiting me, and he knew Rose Tyler was in the game. He could just be a REGULAR watcher or get role names, watch me D1, see people, get names, blah blah. There are other explanations for what happens and, out of the claims, his is the most FUNKY. Every else is a regular thing - shrink, inventor, medic, roleblocker, JK, kita claims JOAT basically. Hopeless claims watcher, but funky watcher, and he has no control over targeting, and oh yeah if Rose is dead he just rando targets someone. Poofter smelled bad D1 to me, but I really do like his defense and comments. Specifically, I don't think he could have been scum originally, and I don't think he was converted on N1. That makes him highly highly unlikely to be scum for me just based on elimination. I assume 2 scum day 1, less than 2 conversions, and a conversion occurring more likely on N1 than N2 (2 KP + conversion is too much, but no KP + conversion on D1 fits). Since he doesn't fit the bill for me to be original scum OR a conversion N1, I have a hard time thinking he's scum despite him just kinda...not playing much. Less likely than the other 3. So if I had control of the nuke, I think I fire it at kita. I don't think thrawn or hopeless are bad targets, and I'm guessing 2 mafia between kita/thrawn/hopeless. I think poofter is a bad target. I think people who think poofter is the best target are, themselves, good targets. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I think 2 mafia alive is likely. I think Kita most likely mafia. I could easily see a Kita + Thrawn team, or Kita + Hopeless, but I think kita is in both pairs? Poofter is NOT a likely mafia for me. I don't think he's an original mafia. I don't think he's a N1 conversion (his townie stuff was, for me, on D2. I haven't gone back to check his reaction to people that he was asking about my case, but that post just felt pretty darn townie). And I don't think we had 2 KP + conversion N2. If he isn't original, wasn't converted N1, and wasn't converted N2....he's probably not mafia. I THINK I WANT TO DO A BUNCH OF SPECULATING ABOUT CYBER LEADER AND WHEN WE MIGHT HAVE HAD CONVERSIONS AND HOW MANY THERE ARE. BUT THAT PROBABLY WAITS UNTIL LATER, AND MAYBE DAY, AND MAYBE NEVER, WOULD RATHER EVERYONE JUST HUNT AND HUNT. I would be particularly interested in hearing some talk about kush's check. I brought it up before, but I think people need to keep discussing, especially scummy and scummy-adjacent people. Kush checks kita Says green If Kush and Kita are BOTH mafia, does this make sense? When? If Kita is town, does this make sense? When? I think thoughts on the check are a really neat way to look for slips, and also just to try and puzzle out exactly what is going on. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:19 Vivax wrote: I have only skimmed the last little chunk.Austin didn't you read those posts where he slips that I'm town and kita is scum? Just got in, hammered out a bunch of nonsense that SHOULD make sense for the most part. One sec, I'll peek at hopeless stuff and then I'm getting away from computer and getting some sleep. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Okay. The more I read those things, the more I'm down with a kita or hopeless nuke. Stick thrawn to the side for now. I think kita is the safer bet. On the flip side, Amy Pond is kind of a badass at times, and I don't think she'd balk at saying we should keep kita around and have him be the tip top lynch candidate going into tomorrow. On the slight chance he's town, he's particularly useful and will probably be working his ass off to try and make cases on someone who better not be vivax. If he's mafia, then lol he has to work his ass off and make cases on people. It's more just than a quick death, and more amusing for us? That seems a little mean. Anyway: Kita Hopeless Thrawn With not much space between the top 2. I like some of those points but vision fading, must return to the nest, flap flap flap | ||
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