EPTOn April 07 2014 13:08 Hopeless1der wrote:
so we'll flip kita first and then worry about me/poof right?
so we'll flip kita first and then worry about me/poof right?
Sure, but first you have to votenuke your scumbuddy.
Doctor Who Mafia 2 - Page 133
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Vivax
22301 Posts
Sure, but first you have to votenuke your scumbuddy. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
When did you first think kush might be scum? Why did you find Austin's case more compelling than Kita's given your game-long town read of kush? Why not defend kush since you had been townreading him? Also are you in a zombie army? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
(1) Kush was Cyber Leader. I think starting with a single scum in this game is absurd, as a single lynch or a town roleblock would ... end the game, more or less. So I think it's likely there were two to start with. (2) We would have lost D3 if there were 4 scum. Therefore, only 2-3 scum total at that point, kush dead, only 1-2 now. (3) I think infinite conversions is...wonky. If you don't start with 1 scum, and you could convert every night, you'd add people too quickly, and town could NEVER catch up (1 conversion per night (plus some KP) and only 1 lynch per day). (4) Therefore, conversions are limited. Either a certain number, not every night, or, what I think is most likely...only kush can convert. If he's "Cyber Leader", makes sense that he's doing the converting, and when they lose their leader they can't convert? Maybe. I personally find this more likely than every other night, and PROBABLY more likely than every night choose to convert or shoot (who would shoot when you could convert?) (4a) The scenario where only kush can convert is wonky because the game is STILL somewhat over if he dies early and it's just 1 remaining scummer all game. So maybe it's just 1 for the team? Or the every other night? I just don't understand ever shooting when converting is an option, and I don't think it's POSSIBLE for there to be 2 KP yesterday AND a conversion, that's OP. Whatever, this is for later. But I think kush being Cyber Leader is important. Nuke targets Vivax not a target Amiko not a target Me not a target Hopeless, Thrawn, Poofter, Kita Gut says kita. So much of the reason that kush was scummy was posts ABOUT kita, kita didn't have a townie-smelling D2 for me, he followed the pattern I expect from scum kita (townie explosion D1 --> can't keep being townie explosion). Plus, if kita isn't mafia, kush just claims a red check on him, we MAYBE lynch him (he looks scummy AND we have a check now), kush wins the game with others. Kita just makes sense ESPECIALLY when looking at kush. Kush's comments, the claimed green check, kita very very very very likely mafia. He put a crapload of work in there. He had some...townie sounding stuff after it. Joking about vivax and kush not being together, me saying I was supposed to catch him, and him being slightly silly in response looks...good. Not great, but it feels townie. So, his D3 feels townie to me, but the kush side of things looks bad for him. (Paranoid flip side: If kush is scum and kita is scum, and kush is CYBER LEADER, kush just claims a frigging red check on kita. We lynch kita, kush looks better, PROBABLY keeps on surviving? MAYBE gets to convert more? Okay so...if kush and kita both scum, kush didn't have reason to push kita over himself, so he's likely NOT more important than kita or has used up all his juice?) Good buddy for him is thrawn, maybe a kita + kush start --> thrawn conversion. Again, all the stuff about thrawn feeling more out of it/less involved/whatever applies after his start. For all the asking to go look at vivax and kita and toad, thrawn not doing so makes me very wary if kita is mafia. thrawn coming in recently and writing a post about how kita is probably town and also not thinking in the way I'm thinking about why kush would/wouldn't fake a check looks BAD for thrawn as a thrawn kita team. Thrawn feels....LESS scummy if kita isn't mafia, it's part associative here, but mainly I just don't get the sense that he's looking at things in the same way I look at them, he's observing them from the wrong angle. I swear that I will read hopeless one day. He's done nothing that yells town to me, and is hanging on by a claim. We don't know that we can trust it, only that, on D1, he totally saw Vivax and JJD visiting me, and he knew Rose Tyler was in the game. He could just be a REGULAR watcher or get role names, watch me D1, see people, get names, blah blah. There are other explanations for what happens and, out of the claims, his is the most FUNKY. Every else is a regular thing - shrink, inventor, medic, roleblocker, JK, kita claims JOAT basically. Hopeless claims watcher, but funky watcher, and he has no control over targeting, and oh yeah if Rose is dead he just rando targets someone. Poofter smelled bad D1 to me, but I really do like his defense and comments. Specifically, I don't think he could have been scum originally, and I don't think he was converted on N1. That makes him highly highly unlikely to be scum for me just based on elimination. I assume 2 scum day 1, less than 2 conversions, and a conversion occurring more likely on N1 than N2 (2 KP + conversion is too much, but no KP + conversion on D1 fits). Since he doesn't fit the bill for me to be original scum OR a conversion N1, I have a hard time thinking he's scum despite him just kinda...not playing much. Less likely than the other 3. So if I had control of the nuke, I think I fire it at kita. I don't think thrawn or hopeless are bad targets, and I'm guessing 2 mafia between kita/thrawn/hopeless. I think poofter is a bad target. I think people who think poofter is the best target are, themselves, good targets. | ||
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Vivax
22301 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:13 Amiko wrote: @Hopeless When did you first think kush might be scum? When he read his role pm. Why did you find Austin's case more compelling than Kita's given your game-long town read of kush? Cause one thinks that always being on your scumbuddys side all game long looks bad on the long term. Why not defend kush since you had been townreading him? It would look bad later. Also are you in a zombie army? He is alive, just underwent special plastic surgery with some brain reprogramming. | ||
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Vivax
22301 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I think 2 mafia alive is likely. I think Kita most likely mafia. I could easily see a Kita + Thrawn team, or Kita + Hopeless, but I think kita is in both pairs? Poofter is NOT a likely mafia for me. I don't think he's an original mafia. I don't think he's a N1 conversion (his townie stuff was, for me, on D2. I haven't gone back to check his reaction to people that he was asking about my case, but that post just felt pretty darn townie). And I don't think we had 2 KP + conversion N2. If he isn't original, wasn't converted N1, and wasn't converted N2....he's probably not mafia. I THINK I WANT TO DO A BUNCH OF SPECULATING ABOUT CYBER LEADER AND WHEN WE MIGHT HAVE HAD CONVERSIONS AND HOW MANY THERE ARE. BUT THAT PROBABLY WAITS UNTIL LATER, AND MAYBE DAY, AND MAYBE NEVER, WOULD RATHER EVERYONE JUST HUNT AND HUNT. I would be particularly interested in hearing some talk about kush's check. I brought it up before, but I think people need to keep discussing, especially scummy and scummy-adjacent people. Kush checks kita Says green If Kush and Kita are BOTH mafia, does this make sense? When? If Kita is town, does this make sense? When? I think thoughts on the check are a really neat way to look for slips, and also just to try and puzzle out exactly what is going on. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:19 Vivax wrote: I have only skimmed the last little chunk.Austin didn't you read those posts where he slips that I'm town and kita is scum? Just got in, hammered out a bunch of nonsense that SHOULD make sense for the most part. One sec, I'll peek at hopeless stuff and then I'm getting away from computer and getting some sleep. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Vivax
22301 Posts
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Vivax
22301 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
One min Vivax I'll reread your comment on the alignment slip | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Okay. The more I read those things, the more I'm down with a kita or hopeless nuke. Stick thrawn to the side for now. I think kita is the safer bet. On the flip side, Amy Pond is kind of a badass at times, and I don't think she'd balk at saying we should keep kita around and have him be the tip top lynch candidate going into tomorrow. On the slight chance he's town, he's particularly useful and will probably be working his ass off to try and make cases on someone who better not be vivax. If he's mafia, then lol he has to work his ass off and make cases on people. It's more just than a quick death, and more amusing for us? That seems a little mean. Anyway: Kita Hopeless Thrawn With not much space between the top 2. I like some of those points but vision fading, must return to the nest, flap flap flap | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Work with me to clarify your thoughts a little. If I understand this post, this is the point you are making: First, hopeless1der says he is unsure of Vivax. Then, hopeless1der says JJD must be town, because if he was scum he would get hopeless and Vivax lynched. Your argument is that Hopeless is saying he sees you (Vivax) as town, which is inconsistent with his prior unsure read? | ||
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Vivax
22301 Posts
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Vivax
22301 Posts
Kita is good town so it's easier to tell when he's scum, hence I'm more sure that he is over hopeless who could as well just be derp cause he also looks bad as town. aaaand we get a roleblock out of the way, although hopeless probably has another one. | ||
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Vivax
22301 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:13 Amiko wrote: @Hopeless When did you first think kush might be scum? When he was being reasonable talking to rayn. Why did you find Austin's case more compelling than Kita's given your game-long town read of kush? BIRDGOD Why not defend kush since you had been townreading him? Because he was scum. Also are you in a zombie army? No | ||
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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Hopeless1der
United States5836 Posts
On April 07 2014 13:45 Vivax wrote: Precisely, that's roughly 30 minutes after that post. He uses a connection based argument that involves a supposed null read. That read had nothing to do with my read on you, it had to do with my perceived read on JJD and what a scum-JJD might do vs what a town-JJD might do. Scum JJD lies to get one of us lynched. Town JJD does not. | ||
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