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[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot - Page 89

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 21:26 GMT
#1761
well you'll notice my vote is on LM but basically you/me/lm are the lynches for the rest of this game imo. I'll gladly appeal to 'suki said so' at this point for reasons people should vote LM today.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 21:28 GMT
#1762
On February 17 2014 06:26 Hopeless1der wrote:
well you'll notice my vote is on LM but basically you/me/lm are the lynches for the rest of this game imo. I'll gladly appeal to 'suki said so' at this point for reasons people should vote LM today.

If Suki had convinced me LoneMeow was scum I wouldn't have voted for her yesterday.

Still, with her townflip... I'll go back and look again.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 21:32 GMT
#1763
she may not have been that convincing, but she certainly believed what her reads were
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 21:34 GMT
#1764
Okay, so Suki's argument for LoneMeow scum.

On February 14 2014 01:58 suki wrote:
More on LoneMeow. This time, his interactions with Sidesprang.

Looking now, I noticed that LoneMeow was actually soft-defending Sidesprang.

+ Show Spoiler +

Day 1 is over, Jonny is flipped scum.

On February 10 2014 15:30 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2014 15:26 jaybrundage wrote:
Hei lonemeow. Lets chat. What do you think of Oats, Hopeless1der and Sidesprang? What is your opinion of me and Suki right now? Is balla too townie to be townie. Should we kill him for the lulz + Show Spoiler +
:D


Oats - null. Hate the fact that he doesn't give reasoning for his reads but he does that as town so...
Hopeless1der - slight lean on town for effort.
Sidesprang - no idea, need to re-read.

Between you and suki I'd prefer lynching suki right now, I'll get to the reasons when I finish reading things.


First he's null on sidesprang.

On February 11 2014 02:07 LoneMeow wrote:
suki, since you looked into sidesprang's play in previous games, would you agree that his play here looks similar to II Titanic Mafia?


On February 11 2014 03:03 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 11 2014 02:43 suki wrote:
mm.. I will have to disagree. I'd like to hear your side, what you think are similar.

Here are my thoughts:

II Titanic: He puts people on his watchlist for not having a desire to scum hunt, being inconsistent, not saying things he likes.
+ Show Spoiler +

On December 11 2013 21:57 sidesprang wrote:
Ok so I've been trying to read filters to find some scum. A few people caught my interest.

VayneAuthority: Seems to have very little content, and frankly not even a desire to hunt scum at all. I got the impression that he was an experienced mafia player and would thus expect more of him. He is basically tunnelvisioning on the easiest target and dont really provide much outside of that. He said he was memory banking stuff and would come back later day 1. I hope he will provide something else than just slam before the day is over.

##Vote VayneAuthority

Alakaslam: A lot have been said about him allready, he stated before the game that he would play like this, so I will give him that. The question is just can we actually understand what he is trying to tell us. I kinda feel there is something there and if we crack the code we might be able to understand him, maybe it will ger easier if we get a few flips. But however if he is scum it will be very dangerous cause he can just send us on a wild goosechase and still just act like hes doing now and we will be non the wiser. I feel his playstyle forces us to kill him if we dont wanna deal with him, or use a cop check on him if we wanna keep him alive. Unless someone feels they can actually get something out of him ?

JarJarDrinks : I dont like this guy atm, might just be because he went after me. But in his filter he says he finds zeroing in on details scummy, and thats what he's been doing half his post. And his case against me with the "anti-town" thing I just find very very weak. I kinda get the feeling he's trying to pick some low hanging fruit with the way he's saying "hey look at this".

Purpletrator: Not really said anything I liked, fillered a lot first half and the fucked off. Said he would be back with more, hopefully that is soon.


People I like as town atm is Holy for providing a lot of analysis and in general bringing up good points, if he by some odd chance are mafia we should be able to nail him later days because he got loads of info out there.

I also like kush and Xata, I in general agree with a lot of what they are saying and they are playing very pro town imo.



I know some people wanted to lynch me, I felt I explained myself allready. So if you want me to elaborate you need to specify on what.


Random fluff: My name is Sidesprang, not Sidespring. And in Norway we are in general not bad in english, and I hope my posts dont reek bad english





Here, LoneMeow is saying 'suki, do you agree that sidesprang's play is a lot like this game when he was blue? IE. he's trying to make me find similarities between sidesprang's blue game and this game.

On December 14 2013 22:41 sidesprang wrote:
My reasons for voting on Vayne

D1: He does nothing, tunnelvisions on slam, the easiest safest target to go on in the start. Just a policy lynch, if it goes through it dont tell us anything about Vayne regardless of how it flips.

N1: Tells us day 2 is when the real game will start.

D2: Does nothing despite the real game having started, goes on the easiest safest target to go on again LSB. Dont provide any insight. Is more disruptive than helpfull to the town.

That is why I wanna lynch Vayne. He is like an Day 1 Alakaslam just without speaking in code.

The fact that If we lynch him we can learn from his flip, is just a bonus. If you read my filter and put the pieces togheter you could have seen this. But I guess I also could have put this case togheter when making the vote. Did not really take me that long


His self defense is straightforward and non-apologetic.+ Show Spoiler +
On December 10 2013 20:07 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 10 2013 13:35 LSB wrote:
General comments:

purpletrator is being incredibly defensive and showing off as paranoid to me
xatalos has been powerplaying quite hard day 1, and typically lynches of major town voices go badly day 1.

Push Post
Personally I think the most important post so far is this
On December 10 2013 10:10 Holyflare wrote:
On December 10 2013 09:42 sidesprang wrote:
Ok, so a lot of things going on. I agree we should not let lurkers stay silent, and should poke anyone that stays silent for to long. But there is a lot of value in not spamming down the thread if you are town, that will only make the scummy post harder to see. I'm mainly looking at you Xatalos, as you are on your third page in filter with like half of the post being oneliners. Even if town you will be detrimental to the town if you keep this up! There are others aswell, just used you as an example.


--------

About Cora there are a few things I did not like and caught my eye. His opening post is not good, and if he's mafia hes basically just buying himself an excuse to lurk for day 1 and then come out day 2 and bring chaos onto the town.

He also deflected a lot in his defence and basically just said "look at X he's scummier than me".

And lastly he asked for people to vote for him if they found him scummy, which is very Anti-Town.


I do not feel cora is mafia yet at least, but definetly worth to look at.


-------

@Kish, can anyone that have played with him earlier say something about how he plays. He is deffo playing the most anti town atm, but he's also doing it on purpose which is frustrating.




I really really do not like this post as an entry post:

A) Sheeps everthing I have mentioned on Cora.
B) Uses a big chunk of his entry post saying why cora is displaying mafia associated traits but won't vote him yet?
C) Mentions Xatalos in a completely non-inquisitive manner, no justification on a read based on Xan's posts or anything.


Sidesprang, what do you think of Xatalos so far? He has been pressured quite hard this game, were his responses more town alignment indicative to you?

I've already mentioned how I felt the initial read of Cora was incredibly forced. This can easily attributed to Holyflare's overeagerness.

What is important to keep an eye out are the bandwagoners. Or the "bait and switch" approach. Make a flimsy case, wait for someone to quickly jump on your plan, and finger the bandwagoner as mafia. The logic behind this is that very few townies would be willing to push a bad lynch, but a mafia would be willing to push many lynches on greenies regarless of the contents of the lynches.

On December 10 2013 11:13 sidesprang wrote:
On December 10 2013 10:10 Holyflare wrote:
On December 10 2013 09:42 sidesprang wrote:
Ok, so a lot of things going on. I agree we should not let lurkers stay silent, and should poke anyone that stays silent for to long. But there is a lot of value in not spamming down the thread if you are town, that will only make the scummy post harder to see. I'm mainly looking at you Xatalos, as you are on your third page in filter with like half of the post being oneliners. Even if town you will be detrimental to the town if you keep this up! There are others aswell, just used you as an example.


--------

About Cora there are a few things I did not like and caught my eye. His opening post is not good, and if he's mafia hes basically just buying himself an excuse to lurk for day 1 and then come out day 2 and bring chaos onto the town.

He also deflected a lot in his defence and basically just said "look at X he's scummier than me".

And lastly he asked for people to vote for him if they found him scummy, which is very Anti-Town.


I do not feel cora is mafia yet at least, but definetly worth to look at.


-------

@Kish, can anyone that have played with him earlier say something about how he plays. He is deffo playing the most anti town atm, but he's also doing it on purpose which is frustrating.




I really really do not like this post as an entry post:

A) Sheeps everthing I have mentioned on Cora.
B) Uses a big chunk of his entry post saying why cora is displaying mafia associated traits but won't vote him yet?
C) Mentions Xatalos in a completely non-inquisitive manner, no justification on a read based on Xan's posts or anything.


Sidesprang, what do you think of Xatalos so far? He has been pressured quite hard this game, were his responses more town alignment indicative to you?



A) I might be blind but I dont see you mention everything I mentioned, but if I still find it scummy would I not be allowed to say it ?

B) I don't see a reason for voting anyone yet, he is deffo looking scummy but It's still early in D1.

C) The point about Xatalos was a plea to the Town that people should rather focus on more quality over quantity when posting. Can I not do that in a non-inquisitive manner? I said I just used him as an example.


About Xatalos, I deffo dont like his opening. He goes after Cora and Kush which I think its fine, but also goes after Slam and Spag which had barely spoken and had not said anything scummy. So Artanis evaluation of him fits nicely, tho I wont say he is mafia because of it. He might just do it to start discussion, as he says he likes all the action happning here. I dont and will keep an eye on him.

And his defence was kinda just meta, "saying that is how he plays", and I dont know the guy. Might be true might not be. I dont like meta defences and its another thing that will make me keep an eye on him.

Indeed he continues his bandwagony attitude. Although there have only been two posts from him, bait and switch has a 100% success rate (n = 1), and I might as well go with it. I am seriously concerned about his willingness to support lynches without contributing much personal insights.

##unvote
##Vote; sidesprang


Okay I see I'm off to a rocky start.

You might say I'm bandwagoning because I did not have any insight that I came up with myself, but it was the only read I had. Would you rather I stay silent? And I'm not willing to push for a lynch on Cora and Xatalos, I thought I made it clear I did in no way find them scummy enough to vote on yet. I dont like to fling my vote around without justification, and if I did so it would only make me look scummy.

And for the second post I dont really see how you can say im bandwagoning, I was asked a question and I answered, I had no intentions of going after Xatalos at all. And now that grack and rayn basically said it was normal play for it. I will just assume that he inteded to create some discussion.




He comments on the popular targets of the day. This example is a day 2 post: + Show Spoiler +
On December 14 2013 22:04 sidesprang wrote:
I see LSB is a very popular target ATM, tbh I'm a bit worried about lynching him, mainly for two reasons.

1. His play so far, has pretty much just been tunneling one guy at the time, trying to bandwagon me for the most part. The problem is, if he is town or mafia its just bad play in general. And its hard to see the difference between bad town and bad mafia imo.

2. And pretty much whatever he flips I dont really see us learning much, which I don't like. I could get with this lynch D1, but a misslynch at this point where we gain little information will be dangerous.


Artanis is another popular target, but I dont really see him very scummy. Just by reading his filter my gut just say's towny. He was also one of the few that defended Cora, and he also got some heat for doing so. His defence felt honest and towny, and I'm not sure a mafia would do that.


Coag is a guy I think we should all take a look at and pressure into giving some oppinions. His filter ATM is just a bunch of one liners with hardly any meaning. He jumps on LSB without really explaining anything, or giving any personal insight. Pandain the guy he replaced did not really do anything either to look towny. Anyone have some history with this guy they can share ?




In this game...

His reasons for voting people in the beginning are largely meta: + Show Spoiler +
On February 07 2014 18:44 sidesprang wrote:
k, dont wanna give out town / nullreads tho cause I don't see the town benefit in doing so.

Currently I got three people on my watchlist.

JayB: This guy was an easy townread for me last game. ATM I'm not getting that at all, he made loads of bad posts so far, which don't make you scum. But I'm not getting the same easy read as last game which makes me wanting to see more contributions from him.

Jonny: A lot of the same as JayB. Had this guy as an easy townread in my Newbie game. Not getting the same vibe atm. He got a Balla case coming up tho, so let's see where that goes.

Oats: He sheeped onto JayB, and seems certain he is scum. Without adding his own thoughts. He was also quick to jump on Suki when aqua mentioned her, which I found wierd seeing how certain he acted against JayB.



Later on, his reasons for voting people seem to be based solely on Jonny flipping:
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 09 2014 22:14 sidesprang wrote:
Ok, so from the lynch. Coag and Suki both are looking bad, and have been talked about a lot.

Suki as I said is hard for me, she completly fooled me for the most part in Newbie mafia L1, and i'm starting to get scared she is doing it again. I had her as null / leaning town earlier. But her hard attack on Jay looks way worse now that Jonny flipped scum. I mean most of us thought Jonny was good D1 lynch, and the fact that Jay blueclaimed but she stilled thought he was a better lynch I find a off. Yes the claim was wierd, but he did the same shit last game.

The Slam / Coag team looks bad mostly for his lack of mentioning of Jonny. Which I wish we could have questioned Slam about. Sadly unless Coag for some reason decides to actually play mafia I doubt we will get much usefull information from him. Might be the best vig shot if we got one imo.

Two others that really did not mention Jonny either is Hopeless and Oats, and I think we should look at them for tomorrow aswell.

Hopeless on Jonny:

Only post before vote where jonny is mentioned:

Show nested quote +
On February 08 2014 01:29 Hopeless1der wrote:
On February 08 2014 00:57 Koshi wrote:
Hopeless what do you think of Oats?

At a skim, he goes from JayB->JonnyLaw->me->Suki->sidesprang. Can't sit still, pursuing everything he sees for the most part.

He completely glances over JonnyLaw and me, but volunteered reads/reasons for the other 3. I think he's town.


The vote:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2014 23:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
On February 08 2014 23:29 Koshi wrote:
On February 08 2014 23:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
On February 08 2014 23:02 Koshi wrote:
You never sheep.
Was is dis?

I sheep all the time, I just dont say im sheeping

Not at all.
Did.you agree with Hopeless read on you?
How sure are you about jonny red flip?

Of course he disagrees with me, he's scum Koshi. /sarcasm

I may not be back before deadline, family stuff. I'll try to keep updated by phone

##Unvote
##Vote: JonnyLaw




Oats on Jonny:

Show nested quote +
On February 07 2014 11:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Johnny is my second pick for scum but I doubt that him and jay are on the same team due to the pretty much exact same push on koshi. Thoughts?


Show nested quote +
On February 07 2014 19:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
I gave the first analysis on suki, the only thing I sheeped was aqua asking about suki.

how is suki town because she totally ignores jayb's case and thinks he is too tryhard and therefore scum? URGHGHHH

fine.
##unvote
##vote Sidesprang

Firstly his scumreads dont make sense. He summarizes all our filters and doesnt say anything about how it makes us scum, he isnt reading in depth at all to know that I think johnny is town and his townread on suki doesnt make sense either.
bleh its hard to phrase but I dont get the feeling like he is questioning anything at all in this game.


Show nested quote +
On February 08 2014 11:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Hmm johnny says he is gonna post a case on balla. I wanna see how that goea but currently I could lynch
Hes like really angry. Angry people are scummy people


The Vote:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2014 22:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
##unvote
bleh.
sheep time
##vote johnny


I don't really know hopeless playstyle, and I mentioned earlier that Oats can pull this off as either allignment. And now that Jonny flipped scum I'm getting extra worried. Sadly their play this game is mostly short post with little content, so they are hard to read, atleast for me.

For now I would think both scum lies in theese four.

Anyone have input on oats / hopeless? Don't feel they have been discussed much yet.

On February 10 2014 17:17 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2014 12:30 suki wrote:
##vote Coagulation

I see that Oats has posted a bunch. I want to hear from Sidesprang. Specifically these questions:

1. Who is your number one lynch at the moment for Day 2 and why?
2. Who is scummy to you?
3. Comments on the Jonny lynch and the events leading up to it.

I'll comment on Oats in the morning when I'm not tired and I really hope to see something from Sidesprang.


I would prefer to lynch Oats, reasons being. He hardly mentioned jonny, had no reasons for voting him. Has two suspect townreads (hopeless / JayB). He is also not being very helpfull to town.

People who is leaning scum to me is Oats, You, Coag, Hopeless. Pretty much in that order I think.

Koshi and Balla lead the lynch, they were too me the two guys looking most towny. Koshi prolly died because of it. 3 guys have votes that they pretty much did not explain. You had Jonny as second lynch (I think), but for some reason was very reluctant to get JayB lynched instead.

I feel usualy town when having two scumreads are happy lynching either atleast when its such a landslide in votes. The fact that you are no dropping him completly for the day while having gone that hard for him I don't understand.

Anyhow, off too school. I'll check in when I got time.


He's not going after people for being inconsistent, or for not contributing (see his soft defense of slam/coag), and there's no mention of whether he thinks people are thinking the same as he is.

His defense this game is complete dismissal rather than going through the points and explaining himself:+ Show Spoiler +


On February 07 2014 17:56 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 07 2014 15:27 suki wrote:
Fine, he's not 'objectively' scum. There are more points against him for being scum than the points that I have against sidesprang which is largely a meta read.


Quoting this since shorter

If you want to apply meta read on me, then do not use my almost 4 year old games. It wont get you anywhere good.

You are correct that my mindset and play this game is different. Last month i've been coached and I've shadowed, both for first time. So I do hope I picked up something, that will hopefully improve my play.



And he hasn't addressed any of the recent allegations against him at all.

And of course he didn't really comment on Jonny. He is commenting on Coag today though.

- - -

Sidesprang was blue that game. I think his play doesn't really match. Would like to hear your thoughts, LoneMeow.


The point about him using far more meta seems somewhat valid.

The defense point I'd say doesn't fully hold water because the attack on him was very different.

And he did not actually comment on the eventual D1 lynch at all in II Titanic, but then again the Spaghetticus train happened late into the day and he seems to not have been around.

All in all, pretty these points you made are pretty inconclusive.


I'd like to point out that you changed your read on him earlier from scum to null based partially on II Titanic meta:
Show nested quote +
On February 08 2014 06:02 suki wrote:
Sidesprang's meta:

+ Show Spoiler +

Cop in II Titanic
On December 10 2013 09:42 sidesprang wrote:
Ok, so a lot of things going on. I agree we should not let lurkers stay silent, and should poke anyone that stays silent for to long. But there is a lot of value in not spamming down the thread if you are town, that will only make the scummy post harder to see. I'm mainly looking at you Xatalos, as you are on your third page in filter with like half of the post being oneliners. Even if town you will be detrimental to the town if you keep this up! There are others aswell, just used you as an example.


--------

About Cora there are a few things I did not like and caught my eye. His opening post is not good, and if he's mafia hes basically just buying himself an excuse to lurk for day 1 and then come out day 2 and bring chaos onto the town.

He also deflected a lot in his defence and basically just said "look at X he's scummier than me".

And lastly he asked for people to vote for him if they found him scummy, which is very Anti-Town.


I do not feel cora is mafia yet at least, but definetly worth to look at.



-------

@Kish, can anyone that have played with him earlier say something about how he plays. He is deffo playing the most anti town atm, but he's also doing it on purpose which is frustrating.



This is pretty much his first post in the game. Notice he writes a short thing about policy and then starts scum hunting.

Most of his posts in this game are scum hunting, but I didn't find many difficult questions in this one.

Town in Newbie Mini Mafia LI

On January 06 2014 08:10 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2014 07:47 TheChyz wrote:
Why so eager to have people help you achieve your goals? Maybe they don't agree with them. If onlywonderboy is right, then your rules help you if you are scum as well since you seem to be very active in which lynching lurkers would help your cause of staying alive. Also having people fight can cause confusion in the town. So I don't see a reason why people should just help you achieve your goals.



You don't see a reason why people should help Bella with creating a "tough environment for mafia to hide in and lynch some mafia" ?


Starts the game off with a pointed question trying to find TheChyz's motives.

On January 06 2014 08:59 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 06 2014 08:23 Balla24 wrote:
Let's hear some opinions on some people. Sidesprang what do you think of OWB and thechyz so far? etc etc

Be analytical. I'm already feeling a bit weird with thechyz but it's preliminary obviously and i'm waiting for him to post some more.


@ onlywonderboy

atm he is just null for me. from his PoV he has only stated obvious things so far. It not really contributing atm, but its to early to fault him for that. And he does say he is going to more active and contribute with meaningfull analysis, so as long as he atleast tries to do this we should be able to read him in the future.

@ thechyz,

I don't like him atm. In his first post he says he agrees with you and dont mind lynching lurkers to discourage lurking. But then in his second post he says he see no reason to why people should help you achivieving that same agenda he just agreed with. Feels very much like a contradiction to me.





This is his third post in the game and he's pointing out contradictions.

On January 07 2014 15:33 sidesprang wrote:
@theDragoon Who would you vote for now and why ?

Also, why did you change your mind and wanted to defend yourself afterall ?


Questioning TheDragoon who was the top lynch candidate of the day. sidesprang was wary that the lynch on theDragoon was going to smoothly and tried getting information from theDragoon before the lynch.

Miller in TL Mafia XX
He spends most of the game apologizing for his low post quantity.

scum in TL Mafia XVIII
Like sidesprang pointed out, this scum game is from 4 years ago, something that I didn't think about as I was just looking through past games and not noticing the date. Regardless, I'll include some posts here to show where my line of thought came from in my case that I wrote up.

On February 14 2010 12:00 sidesprang wrote:
I definatly agree that we should not lynch someone based on day one clues, unless someone can make a foolproof case. But they should definatly be discussed and looked through, cause they could help us put the pieces toghter at a later day.

And it also gives us something to talk about, and im pretty sure the more posts there are the more information one could gather from this game and put it togheter.

policy talk to start the game

On February 15 2010 00:30 sidesprang wrote:
L's point about beeing 20 mafia and that it will take a long time before we get two different clues on a single mafia i dont really think is true.

Last game i was in there was 8 mafia and they had 3kp. meaning at day 3 we in the worst case scenario had 1 mafia with double clues.

In this game there is 20 mafia and 6 KP, meaning in the worst case we would have 4 double clues at day 4. But you with there beeing possible 12 mafia kills and 2 lynces one should think/hope that some mafia would die, and we get double clues at day 3 again.



Two posts later, setup talk.
On February 16 2010 08:05 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2010 07:56 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
On February 16 2010 07:44 redtooth wrote:
On February 16 2010 06:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Spamming the thread full of what shit? Posting an objective compilation of everyones arguments? Compiling voting history? Defending myself when redtooth and Ace accused me of being mafia? Finally getting Bill Murray to justify his statements? Don't put me on the same level as BM TT___TT

I guess for the time being Empyrean is our best bet. Ver did a great job of pointing out the inconsistency in his pro-town/mafia behavior from past games and the clue connection is just very very very very strong.

Redtooth did a decent job of defending himself, or at least why it doesn't make sense that he and Ace are both in the same mafia family. His argument for him and ace not being in different mafia families doesn't make sense. "Why would mafia defend a mafia from another family/not mafia"

Unless he wanted to discourage clue analysis because he fears it will hurt his mafia family, or wanted to defend Ace because regardless of Ace's role his argumentation is successfully dividing the town. If redtooth is mafia, he has no way of knowing Ace's role anyway, so saying "i wouldn't defend another families mafia" makes no sense because he doesn't know who those people are. I really doubt the mafia are going to ONLY defend one another, look what happened when I got lynched in the last game. By analyzing who I defended/supported/whose clues I ignored the entire rest of the mafia family was caught.

I'm not accusing you of being mafia redtooth, I'm just pointing out that the argument falls short.

I'm voting for L because so far his arguments have been extremely consistent, he's been trying to get the town moving/discouraging waste posts, and providing excellent clue analysis. Redtooth shouldn't have a problem with this, don't you want L as the other elected role anyway?
you're right. actually that's exactly what i want you to do. i want L as mayor and i want to be pardoner. no vigilantes means pardoner is very very powerful if he is mafia.

as for my argument in why it's sort of illogical for ace and me to be mafia in separate families is because consider the alternative: i could have silently held back and not brought attention to myself instead of being in the middle of controversy between the town. knowing previous games, L vs Ace was going to become a shitstorm whether i stepped in or not. instead i chose to argue a point, blew my top (admittedly more than a few times), and got into a position where my alignment was pretty damn clear. and if Ace isn't on my team (which would be the case if i was mafia and he wasn't in my family) then i would want him dead regardless of what role/alignment he was.

and guys i've said this before but i genuinely believed L was full of shit. now i only think he is half shitty but i've expressed my disdain for day 1 clues enough already.

so it's not about mafia ONLY defending each other. it's about a mafia risking his own neck to defend a good player that's not on his team. THAT is something that doesn't make sense. so if it doesn't make sense then that means i'm not mafia. yay we are finally caught up.


Fair point, now that is a good argument.

Why are we assuming day 1 clues are bad based off previous games? There are 20 mafia. It's highly unlikely that mafia will be getting 6 kills a night, I'd say 4 MAYBE 5 is more likely. Why?

1) Overlapping kills. The mafia are simply going to hit the same targets. Let's say, for example, Player X is green. He's been painted red by a lot of people and thus might be hit by both families. This could happen with anyone who was painted red but is not mafia of either family. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if even 2 kills overlap.

2) Smart medics. While mafia might avoid really big targets early on because they will be protected by medics, medics who are able to anticipate mafia goals will help reduce kills.

With 20 mafia, let's assume we get 5 hits a day. We don't see overlapping clues until DAY SIX

DAY SIX

If everyone feels uncomfortable with Day 1 clue analysis just based on previous experience, I guess there isnt really anything I can say. But let's please not ignore clues on Day 2. If someone makes an accusation based on clues at you, provide an alternative. Simply saying "day 1 clues are trash" isn't enough, especially when you aren't addressing the point of just how many mafia there are in this game and how strong clues need to be.

Also redtooth, I'd like you to clear something up for me. I found a mildly disturbing inconsistency in your arguments. While L was painting Ace red based on clues you said clue analysis on day 1 is trash; that's fine.

You also said the clues pointing to ace specifically were shaky and not well thought-out. Then merely a few posts later you said that the clues pointing toward Ace were so obvious/numerous he can't be mafia. Was there a change of heart here? what happened?


Man your so wrong about the overlapping clues thing. If we dont see overlapping clues before day 6, it is because the mafia only hits the town. And that is not realistic.

The mafia hitting 1/3 each lynch seems realistic if not to low to me. Then we have 6 dead by day 3. And already overlapping clues. Altho the mafia would prolly have overlapping hits.

But my point still stands. We will see overlapping hits WAY before day 6, and if we dont we're allready doomed cause we've lost half our town

The next post, more setup talk.

On February 21 2010 12:10 sidesprang wrote:
i changed my vote to quickstriker, but i dont see why we should not double lynch tomorrow. Since i feel we have alot of good clues to work of, and we will get more.

So you're gonna have to give more reasons for me to take away my double lynch vote.


No reason for his vote.
On February 26 2010 16:59 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 26 2010 16:00 Scamp wrote:
I'd also appreciate it if Sidesprang and Tredmasta would speak up. Especially Sidesprang in order to explain his last vote.


First, my votes are not set in stone. If so i would not have voted so early. But its the weekend coming up and i know im definatly going out on saturday(and the voting closes 1AM(or something like that) in norway. So i had to vote something in case i wont have the time later, ofc i could have abstained but i think scamp is mafia and that L might be and he

voting scamp, because of the cluelink towards you.

voting L, because he has lead this town on so many wrong turns. And i don't see any real proof of him beeing non mafia, and if he is mafia he has gotten away with far to much allready.

reasons for not voting johnnyspaz who i think is definatly mafia, let the other mafia team kill him.


And to the clue link from malongo, im not really sure what aristocracy of money means but for the rest of the first bold sentence i feel that is a huge strech. And im not decafchickens friend

And the bold part number two. That has to be a clue to johhnyspaz, i mean he gets turn into a pincushion. And he has a picture of sonic the hedgehog.

Basically this is his only scum hunting effort in the game.

Again, his filter was super short, but the thing that I noticed is the lack of scumhunting compared to his other town games.

But I missed something big in my meta analysis.. That is, sidesprang was scum in the original Shadowed game.

Scum in Shadowed Mafia
On February 04 2014 10:14 sidesprang wrote:
Lol wtf game started today afterall.

Anyhow regarding policy shit, not much to say, think it's covered allready. But yeh, look for content instead not postcount. We do NOT want ppl spamming useless shit.

Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 09:47 jaybrundage wrote:
Jonny as you have had alot of experience with Balla as scum how would you say he plays as a scum player. Whats his tells if you will

Guess your not in the database either huh jonny XD If your gonna compile your games you might as well make a post in the mafia database with them listed and a quick review :o


Why did you want Jonny to out Ballas scumtells in the thread this early before Balla even had a chance to play into them ?

On February 04 2014 12:29 sidesprang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 04 2014 11:25 jaybrundage wrote:
On February 04 2014 10:14 sidesprang wrote:
Lol wtf game started today afterall.

Anyhow regarding policy shit, not much to say, think it's covered allready. But yeh, look for content instead not postcount. We do NOT want ppl spamming useless shit.

On February 04 2014 09:47 jaybrundage wrote:
Jonny as you have had alot of experience with Balla as scum how would you say he plays as a scum player. Whats his tells if you will

Guess your not in the database either huh jonny XD If your gonna compile your games you might as well make a post in the mafia database with them listed and a quick review :o


Why did you want Jonny to out Ballas scumtells in the thread this early before Balla even had a chance to play into them ?

Sidesprung you asked me a question I responded. There is alot going in the thread right now. I don't just want to see content I want to see some post count too. People are conversing, poking at one another a back and forth. You make one question at me and you disappeared. Don't you have anything else to comment on, or respond to my post or make a comment on another post or give your opinion. Anything really.

Dropping one post and leaving the thread is not the environment town should be fostering. Thru discussion like i was talking about earlier we can learn other alignments and discover ulterior motives. Ill give you somethings to post on.

What do you think of Balla's early vote on LM? Was it appropriate given LM"s posts?

What do you think of my response to your post? Does what I say made sense? Do you agree that I should have questioned Jonny about Balla's scum game or should I have not said anything?

Why do you think Suki poke at Jonnys two opinions? Do you think Suki got defensive after Balla inquired about her post? Why do you think Suki would post about jonny if not trying to discern if hes mafia or not? (These questions go out to Suki as well?)

Who is your towniest read at the moment? Who do you think is most likely scum? Do you believe in policy lynching lurkers? What is the lowest amount someone should be expected to post?



Firstly its Sidesprang, not sidesprung or whatever else ppl think it is.

I don't mind Balla voting for LM, because I think if he keeps on playing like this he will hopefully be easy to read. As for why he voted I dont really agree with. LM's stance on koshi's "plan" is kinda like mine. Judge people based on content not number of posts, and also only reason to lynch lurkers is if there are no better options available.

I liked your response, you had a reason for asking it and you had logic backing it up. Answer felt honest. Tho I do not agree with your logic. It's nice and all generating discussion, but I dont think going over ppl's meta this early is wise. As I think it would be harder to use meta against players if it's been discussed in thread first.

The whole suki / jonny deal requires more thought if I wanna read something out of it. Aka atm I don't really know, and I will read more up on that tomorrow when I got better time.

I got some people whom I feel are playing protown atm, but I see no reason sharing townreads at this point.

I don't have scumreads atm, tho I got a bit interested in Suki since she disliked your post. A post I liked cause you are doing what I think you should be doing with lurkers (get them to post, so you can read them, not lynch them blindly).

People should post enough to be readable and enough to get their scumreads out. I don't belive in a set number.


his first two posts in the game. Basically... He doesn't spend time on policy talk and he starts hunting right away.



So yeah. Taking this into account my case on sidesprang doesn't hold any water. Based on the games that I linked in my original post, I think that my conclusions were reasonable - policy talk in his scum game and scum hunting in his town games. But taking into account the previous Shadowed game where he was scum it's obvious he's changed (read improved) his scum game quite a bit.

Anyways, I suppose I'm null on sidesprang for now. I'll take a closer look at him later.


What's different now so that the same meta points at him being scum?



Refuting my reads on sidesprang.
Again saying 'you went from scum to null on sidesprang based on this game where he was blue. What's so different now?'


On February 11 2014 03:06 LoneMeow wrote:
Also, what besides meta makes you think he's scum? You earlier quoted one post as "pretty weak", what else is there?


Basically trying to discredit me by pointing out that I have a weak case on sidesprang.

On February 12 2014 05:51 LoneMeow wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 12 2014 05:43 Balla24 wrote:
On February 12 2014 05:32 LoneMeow wrote:
Balla24, how does sidesprang's D1 posting fit with the idea that he's scum? There's nothing super convincing in your case, I'm not sold yet.


His day1 is so null. In every way. Null in the fact that reading it doesn't give me a read one way or another. Null in the sense that all his reads were basically null except for town reads and eventually Jonny. If you look at it, you basically have no idea who he thinks is scum until he votes Jonny because whenever he calls someone scummy he's like "but then there's this that looks good and this -> so I don't know what to think".

The fact that he can't stay consistent in day2 from his day1 is bad. That's the important part. Trying to lynch Coag for slam being scummy even though he never called Slam scum is pretty bad.


Now that you say it, I see it too.

The only thing he has said about Alakaslam before the lynch is:

Show nested quote +
On February 09 2014 02:41 sidesprang wrote:
Alakaslam: I buy that he has been busy with work and whatnot. As I don't think scum!slam would lurk in any way I dont see a reason for lying about it. That being said I dont think his enterance is very good. Starts by complaining about how Balla / Suki trolled early game, which has been pointed out is something he is very capable aswell. And it was obviously something that was prewritten before Balla got the roles. Why bring that shit up again, its a null tell. His points are just fluff. He then says he is going to try some filters, but looks like he only read JayB, maybe the easiest one to pick on at the time.

@Slam Did you read up on the rest of the players? Do you got any other reads? What are your thoughts on Jonny?


I wish I was more confident on this lynch.

##Vote: sidesprang


And his eventual vote on sidesprang which is a really weak 'I guess I see how he's scummy'.


This post demonstrates that in Day 2, LoneMeow put significant effort to discrediting my case against sidesprang and push me towards thinking sidesprang's play might be similar to his blue play. His eventual vote on sidesprang is weak.

Two points which basically blow this out of the water:

1) LoneMeow appears to have been questioning Suki about her Sidesprang read to get a better read on Suki (see the last part). This is pretty much exactly what I was doing when I questioned Oats about his Sidesprang read. Perhaps LM has been less open about his thought process than me... but then again most people are.

2) Literal quote from Suki, like four posts before:

Soft defending scum, even your own scum read, is not scummy. Town does not know scum alignments so obviously they're going to try to look at things from all directions.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 21:40 GMT
#1765
On February 14 2014 12:01 suki wrote:
After I flip, scum will have to mislynch twice in order to win the game.

The following people I think are town, and this is pretty much the order I have from most to least townie.

Oats - For leading the lynch against sidesprang. For his pressure play.
Jay - For claiming cop. I think he'll be shot N3. His Day 2 was decent. His response to my case today on who he chose for his cop checks was really townie too.
Aqua - Townie play. Townie interaction with sidesprang. Can't see Aqua being scum.
Hopeless - Big filter. Townie Day 3. If he starts playing a different tune once I'm dead I guess take a closer look at him.
Coag - Counter lynch to sidesprang. Although he hasn't done anything for town. Meta-wise though he seems more likely to be town as he is playing the game now...

LoneMeow I think is scummy. If LoneMeow isn't scum I really don't know cuz everyone else looks town to me. LoneMeow hasn't stuck his neck out, conveniently hasn't read anybody as town. Has thrown suspicion on everyone today except Oats. In day 1 and 2 he sort of lingered in the background and didn't have any effect on the lynches.

When I die lynch LoneMeow 100%. After he's gone I guess it's between Coag and Hopeless? But yeah I dunno.

Anyways I don't really have much else to say. If it isn't LoneMeow then I'm completely lost on who scum would be. Everyone else just looks town to me. Sorry I couldn't help town any more than this.

I have no idea why suki thought Hopeless had a townie day3 - so I can't really adress this point.

The "not reading anyone as town" part I'm conflicted on. On the one hand, it is typically townie to be suspicious of everybody else since you have less knowledge than the scum. On the other hand, it perhaps suits scum agenda to be able to plausibly lynch a couple of people in a row rather than being 100% convinced about each of three mislynches. Still, though, I don't see this as conclusive at all.

A point in LM's favour here is that he wasn't just saying "oh I think anyone could be scum" - he was going to at least a little effort to IMPROVE his reads. Which is not something I've seen much of in Hopeless' filter at any point in this game.

As for day 1 and 2... I'd argue he had a greater effect on the lynches than Hopeless.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 21:42 GMT
#1766
Now, I don't claim it's impossible that LM is the last scum and Hopeless is town. There are certainly a fair few ambiguous points about LoneMeow's filter that I'm not sure which way to read. But I do not currently see that as the most likely possibility.

If you disagree with me, don't just sit on your ass - CONVINCE me.
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 21:45 GMT
#1767
well a significant portion of suki's read on me was the fact that I called everyone town except her. LoneMeow was the least substantiated read of them, so that may look "convenient" for me but when he's the next scummiest player I don't think I can really be blamed for that.

LM probably did have a greater impact but Day1 that was because Jonny took a swing at him and to ignore it would have been sketchy. Day2 I quite frankly stopped giving a shit.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 21:49 GMT
#1768
well a significant portion of suki's read on me was the fact that I called everyone town except her. LoneMeow was the least substantiated read of them, so that may look "convenient" for me but when he's the next scummiest player I don't think I can really be blamed for that.

I guess I can see where she was coming from with that. Problem is, I then have the question "If a scum *knows* that leaving himself with many options is scummy, is he more likely to do that or to go balls-to-the-wall on some townie and afterwards say 'Whoops guys, I guess I was wrong'?"

@Obs QT: This game really does get hard when nobody else gives a shit any more...
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 22:00 GMT
#1769
here's the problem I have aqua....Coag is most likely to be alive tomorrow. He's going to try to lynch you if you are around. In that scenario, I obviously want LoneMeow lynched today. On the other hand, if we lynch you today then I have no idea wtf coag will do. So its in my/(what I believe to be town's) best interest to lynch lonemeow then you if the game still continues.

With that in mind, who do you think you have a better chance with if you have to deal with coag tomorrow, me or LM?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 22:04 GMT
#1770
On February 17 2014 07:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
here's the problem I have aqua....Coag is most likely to be alive tomorrow. He's going to try to lynch you if you are around. In that scenario, I obviously want LoneMeow lynched today. On the other hand, if we lynch you today then I have no idea wtf coag will do. So its in my/(what I believe to be town's) best interest to lynch lonemeow then you if the game still continues.

With that in mind, who do you think you have a better chance with if you have to deal with coag tomorrow, me or LM?

To be honest I'm praying I can get Oats to talk some sense into Coag before he (probably) dies if that happens. I'd far prefer to lynch the last scum today than go into a 3-man LYLO with Coag though.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 22:06 GMT
#1771
What I'm trying to say here is that I'm not deciding who to lynch today based on "which way do I have a better chance tomorrow", I'm deciding who to lynch based on "who do I think is scum".
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 22:08 GMT
#1772
On February 17 2014 07:00 Hopeless1der wrote:
here's the problem I have aqua....Coag is most likely to be alive tomorrow. He's going to try to lynch you if you are around. In that scenario, I obviously want LoneMeow lynched today. On the other hand, if we lynch you today then I have no idea wtf coag will do. So its in my/(what I believe to be town's) best interest to lynch lonemeow then you if the game still continues.

With that in mind, who do you think you have a better chance with if you have to deal with coag tomorrow, me or LM?

Of course, the problem is that this eventuality suits you perfectly if you're the last scum, too.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 22:58 GMT
#1773
Can you explain why you asked that question, Hopeless?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 23:02 GMT
#1774
I really really want to lynch lonemeow and asking random shit looks townie trololol.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 23:06 GMT
#1775
...what.

are you saying that you think I'm townreading lonemeow for asking random shit?
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 23:09 GMT
#1776
'cos basically the only reason I can think of for you to ask that question is to make me think the following:

- Coag has said he's very much town on Lonemeow and scum-ish on Hopeless
- therefore, if LYLO is Coag-Aqua-Lone I will be lynched, whereas in Coag-Aqua-Hopeless I could conceviably convince Coag to vote you
- therefore, I should lynch Lone because that way maybe I survive tomorrow

basically you're trying to convince me to vote Lone without actually trying to convince me that Lone is actually scum.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 23:10 GMT
#1777
which, in these sad days, doesn't even convince me that you're scum, stupid as that is from a town perspective

fml

it's definitely a black mark though
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 23:16 GMT
#1778
On February 17 2014 08:06 Aquanim wrote:
...what.

are you saying that you think I'm townreading lonemeow for asking random shit?

no i'm trying to get cheap towncred for myself.
On February 17 2014 08:09 Aquanim wrote:
'cos basically the only reason I can think of for you to ask that question is to make me think the following:

- Coag has said he's very much town on Lonemeow and scum-ish on Hopeless
- therefore, if LYLO is Coag-Aqua-Lone I will be lynched, whereas in Coag-Aqua-Hopeless I could conceviably convince Coag to vote you
- therefore, I should lynch Lone because that way maybe I survive tomorrow

basically you're trying to convince me to vote Lone without actually trying to convince me that Lone is actually scum.

basically...yes. In terms of longevity its your best play I think.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
February 16 2014 23:19 GMT
#1779
On February 17 2014 08:16 Hopeless1der wrote:
...
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2014 08:09 Aquanim wrote:
'cos basically the only reason I can think of for you to ask that question is to make me think the following:

- Coag has said he's very much town on Lonemeow and scum-ish on Hopeless
- therefore, if LYLO is Coag-Aqua-Lone I will be lynched, whereas in Coag-Aqua-Hopeless I could conceviably convince Coag to vote you
- therefore, I should lynch Lone because that way maybe I survive tomorrow

basically you're trying to convince me to vote Lone without actually trying to convince me that Lone is actually scum.

basically...yes. In terms of longevity its your best play I think.

so?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
February 16 2014 23:21 GMT
#1780
so lynch lonemeow
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