EPT/in
Newbie Mini Mafia LII
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
/in | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
im not mafia gaiz, pls no lynch Also, don't we get a mod post on the innocent child? Or are there none. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 16 2014 13:29 Beneather wrote: That's something mafia say ! ##VOTE Lord Tolkien ##vote Beneather Which part? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 16 2014 15:14 Beneather wrote: The part with " im not mafia gaiz, pls no lynch " seems scummy to me. In which case: are you mafia? Because using your logic, if you say yes you're mafia, and if you say no you aren't. Plus it was a joke post so if you want to take it at face value go ahead. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either. 2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy. On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote  I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read. That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:14 Valenius wrote: So going off of this, The possible roles left are: Vanilla / Cop / Doctor / Roleblocker / Vigilante / Veteran Mafia Goon / Mafia Roleblocker / Mafia Godfather. I'd originally assumed when signing up it would be 3 Mafia (one of each role), with the remaining players split between the town roles randomly. Re-reading through the rules however, it reads to me as if there could be between 1 - 4 Mafia? Don't think there would be 4 mafia. That would be basically 1 mislynch and town loses. 1 mafia is too low threat and too easy for town. My guess is that it's more likely 2-3, probably trending towards 2. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:23 Amiko wrote: Oh, two other points: (1) Game experience is already showing that it is something we can use to evaluate- (2) In reflection, I guess it would appear less scummy for my first post to be like everyone else and randomly vote without providing any information on myself. So, three questions: If I were mafia, why would I try to stand out? Did my post contribute more or less helpful than any of the other first day posts? I think my first post contributed to town, certainly more than the other meaningless d1 posts: 1- It identified my reasoning for how I would vote if I had no scumreads 2- It told you when to expect inactivity and when I would have no excuse for inactivity Also I disagree with Tolkein's comment re lynching idle players. The longer the game goes, the more information we have from active players. Between our copchecks and filters, the players who are talking will be easier to attack for our inconsistencies and our analysis. Silent players don't provide town with any information, and more importantly they won't scumhunt during the day. For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 06:38 Amiko wrote: edit: Also my bad mistake, my third question was What do you think the other posts d1 contributed? Basically, not really no. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 07:56 Cavalinho wrote: Except he hasn't provided any actual reason as to why I'm scum aside from voting him after agreeing with OnceKing. At best, his entire line of rationale can be classified as OMGUS; even then, it isn't a good one, as he is trying to push what he perceives as the weakest line of reasoning against the people pushing him right now. He says voting is scummy, but outing reads is not. But then I call him on it and he says that voting isn't scummy and the fact that I think he's mafia after someone else posted all of the things I was already thinking of is scummy. But he already said that outing reads isn't scummy. His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. His rationale was that you stated that you had originally pegged his post as scummy, but didn't post until after OnceKing made the initial case. Which, honestly, in the current Day 1 climate of no info is as decently sound as we'll get. Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. I may be painting a target on my back to get mafia-killed, but whatever. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
##vote Amiko Depending on the flip: 1) Die scum die 2) Sorry mang, but take one for the town | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 08:33 Cavalinho wrote: Checking the more outspoken players such as you, me, Amiko, and OnceKing is a poor strategy. We can gather reads on each other by watching as we push our agendas throughout the game. Lurking players are a different matter entirely. Depending on what Amiko flips, we can get a relatively solid gauge on whats going on. Now, for the sake of argument, I'm going to walk through both scenarios. A) Amiko flips green or, heaven forbid, blue. 1: The mafia will most likely be hiding amongst the inactives since they had almost no pressure put on them throughout the first day. 2: Mafia started the lynch and cast suspicion on themselves. This is a possible scenario, but it's still unlikely that a cop check will solve the issue since the most likely candidate for pushing someone that is supposedly town would be the Godfather. B) Amiko flips red. 1: Mafia either defended him or bussed. Either way, mafia wouldn't be so outspoken on the first day trying to attract attention to themselves. 2: The people running the lynch should be almost confirmed town since mafia obviously wouldn't run one of their own guys into the ground so early. Either way, cop checks should be carried out on the uncertains lurking in the background rather than the most outspoken players. Hell, even if we don't lynch Amiko today, I wouldn't want a cop check to be carried out on him for the sake that we can rely on him talking more than the other 4 players or so not saying much of anything. I'm also putting a lot of emphasis on votelists because, even if we mislynch early, we can take a look at who's voting who and who is pushing what. If everyone on the chopping block for today's lynch is blue/green, we can look to the inactives as possible targets since no pressure was put on them throughout the day. There's still more than 24 hours left for today's votes. Don't forget that. We have all the time in the world. I'm not even 100% on the Amiko lynch yet, so I might take my vote down just so we can get more reads. Fair enough, and that sounds about right. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I'm leaning towards there being 2 mafia, but it's also possible that there's 3 (highly unlikely I think given only 9 players, but possible?). We'll see. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 08:47 OnceKing wrote: What? Of course it matters man. Who do you think is scum? Given the current information set I have (which is limited): Amiko: moderately leaning scum, not entirely convinced but very possible and the most "scummy" looking we have atm OnceKing: Leaning town or leaning Godfather at this point, I'd say the former, but the latter is certainly possible; does depend on how Amiko flips Cavalinho: Also depends on how Amiko flips, either slight scum or moderate town; his current posts have me fairly slanted towards the latter Me: obv town. If I were blue, it would only be Veteran because I can take a hit; otherwise, why would I risk my neck Day 1. You could also read me red I suppose; it's also a possibility. Beneather: slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Everyone else are lurkers I can't get a read on. Beneather falls in this category too. Either blues or reds most likely. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 09:16 Valenius wrote: Is that from experience, or a (logical) guess? Logical guess. 4 mafia means 1 mislynch=end game. That's ridiculous. 3 mafia means 2 mislynches=end game (since mafia kills someone during night). 3 mafia means 3 mislynches (and 2 night kills)=endgame | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
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On February 17 2014 09:31 Valenius wrote: I'd agree with this point for the most part. However, lynching a lurker would become the best option (in my eyes) if the next 27hrs of discussion don't lead to a solid read on a scum. I'd imagine it's easier to read someone's behaviours later on if they've already been posting. Any other major reads? Who's townish and who's scummy in your indication, and what are your thoughts about the current lynch case? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
I'm going to miss that edit button so hard <_< | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 09:58 Valenius wrote: Sure. Lord Tolkien: As in my last post, I agree (for the most part) with the lynching/no-lynching of lurkers. I don't see how that has any relevance to the actual game, it stands out to me as being an odd comment to use when discussing someone's posting. Amiko: 1. Suggesting to lynch lurkers, and then naming the lurkers 02:45 after the thread started was weird. You said "I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started", but with 48-hour days if you're wanting to lynch lurkers you should be posting your list well into the second day. It add's absolutely nothing that early into Day 1.. my post was just saying I'm going to bed, that shouldn't be enough to get me off a lurker list. 2. Calling yourself town in your first post, again, seems off to me. If you're acting as town, people should form their own town opinion of you, which will be 100x stronger than a read formed by you claiming to be town in a first post. 3. I was going to add here about OneKing's criticism of the length of the post.. it's valid criticism, although in this case I feel like it's given some interesting talking points so i'll forgive it. Cavalinho: His (I presume?) explanation of only jumping on Amiko after the post by yourself was satisfactory to me, otherwise i'd be much more interested in the reasoning behind that.. Mafia Reads? Amiko / IAmRobik. Just a gut feeling on Robik. Town Reads? Lord Tolkein, and potentially OnceKing. No other strong reads yet. Also, you have to give me time to post.. The above post by me was posted before seeing your question (I went to make a coffee, and posted when I got back). I'm not a masssively quick poster, I like to go back and check, and recheck previous posts. Thank you for the reads. Looking back at that point of comment, it is indeed odd and I thank you for pointing it out. I blame lack of sleep. You don't have a strong read on Cavalinho I assume? | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 12:00 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien: I just want to clarify what you mean by this post. What exactly was the risk you took and why would it be such a big risk that only a Veteran would take? I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 13:49 Beneather wrote: ##UNVOTE As of right now I don't think Lord Tolkien is scum. However this post, makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players. Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up. [quote\ On February 17 2014 12:28 Lord Tolkien wrote: I meant that if I were a blue. There's no reason for a cop or somesuch to be forward/active in Day 1, because it draws attention to themselves for a night kill from mafia. The only blue role (if I am a blue) that leads you to think I would be is a Veteran because I can soak a night shot. Assuming I'm not vanilla town or mafia, which are the other logical possibilities. I'm willing to bet the same thing generally with OnceKing, and probably Caval as well. Green, veteran, or mafia are the likely choices. Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy. Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis.[/QUOTE] I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill. But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them. QUOTE]On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well... Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs *Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post...[/quote] Responding to you an Amiko at the same time: 1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped. 2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement. 3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all. 4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently. slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here. On February 17 2014 08:14 Lord Tolkien wrote: Since we have to lynch someone (I don't think we can go for no lynchings), I'm fine lynching Amiko and, assuming we have a Cop, checking either you (most favorable) or OnceKing (I read him as townish, but just to make sure). How we move forward Day 2 depends on how Amiko reads and if we get a red read (which isn't reliable since Godfather, and we probably have a 33%-50% chance of that being the fake read we get, and we might not have a Cop), but unless something new comes up, that's my (newbie) analysis of what we should do. Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide? [/QUOTE] Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this? Stop being an irrelevant nitpick. FFS. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On February 17 2014 13:49 Beneather wrote: ##UNVOTE As of right now I don't think Lord Tolkien is scum. However this post, makes it seem he just wants to end the day with a lynch on Amiko without any further discussion. His mind is made up it seems and does not want to pressure any other players. Ending the day on a lynch on Amiko, at the time of posting, would've revealed enough info on Day 2 for us (and me) to start going on, given the two who were initially in on it, depending on which way he flipped. If green, there's reasonable suspicion cast upon OnceKing and Cavalinho. In the off-chance he was red, well, we again know. I wasn't entirely convinced he was scum, but he was the "scummiest" read I had from the limited set of posts (and I wasn't willing to vote on him initially, if you read my filter), and remains so unless a new case is brought up. Let's say we don't lynch Amiko on this day, and Tolkien would be killed on the night or is actually a veteran and takes a shot. That would mean Amiko would be scum, since Tolkien is pushing for an Amiko lynch on d1. I still do not understand why Tolkien feels that Amiko is scummy. Right now I don't have any good reads on anyone and I will do some further reading, sorry for the absence, will report later with more analysis. I'm not going to speculate on night actions at this point of time yet, as there are too many variables to account for outside of a mafia kill. But if you guys would like, bring up a case against me. I'd like to see why people thing I'm scummy so I can rebut them. On February 17 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote: re: Amiko I actually agree with you regarding your points on Cavalinho and Lord Tolkien. More specifically I feel that they've both jumped onto the wagon I'm pushing onto you without contributing anything themselves: Cavalinho just said I beat him to it and Lord Tolkien, well... Going through his filter here's what Lord Tolkien's got: - random soft defense of you from before our roles came out - says he's unconvinced that Amiko is scum, then votes for him saying his vote doesn't matter (???)* - quoted a Cavalinho hypothetical scenario breakdown and just said he agreed with it without adding anything - takes no sides -- I'm either "town or Godfather", Cavalinho is "slight scum" or "moderate town", Beneather being slightly scum for voting him (???) - speculates on setup (meh) - focuses an awful lot on Godfather/NKs *Yes, your vote always matters. If you're town then this is your weapon. The only thing is that he's been posting a lot which I appreciate but I just don't see anything original coming out of him, and here's a disconcerting post... Responding to you an Amiko at the same time: 1) I've outlined why I decided to vote for the lynch, and why, given the limited information set, a lynch on Amiko would've been fine for me going into Day 2. While there was a soft defense, I do state that it was still a scummy post, even if I wasn't going to commit immediately. This is why I stated that, while I'm wasn't entirely convinced about Amiko being red, I was willing to go with a lynch on him. It would reveal information about OnceKing and Cavalinho depending on which way he flipped. 2) I posted a clarification to it in the possible case that Amiko turns up green, immediately after the agreement. 3) Given the limited number of posts, there was not much to go on besides your initiation of the lynch on Amiko, his responses and back-and-forth with Cavalinho. Therefore, my reads on you and Cavalinho, if the lynch had gone through, would've been based on the flip. That the whole point of it all. 4) The scummy read on Beneather is a joke. I'm fairly certain I made that clear, as I write jokes differently. slightly scummy just for voting for me. i aint no mafia bish~ Note the lack of capitalization. compared to the rest of the post. And the ~. And bish. You're really trying for the dregs here. Yeah, we're all newbies here. Why bring it up? I reiterate, who CARES how much experience we do or don't have? Presumably we've all read guides or bits and pieces of other games or something else -- why should you want to detract from your own analysis unless you're trying to hide? Why the fuck are you focusing on one word in the entire analysis OUTLINING EXACTLY WHY I WAS FOR THE LYNCH YOU INITIATED (and then have the audacity try to question why I would vote for him despite being entirely sold in later posts)? If I had removed (newbie), would that change anything about the damn post about all? So why the hell are you tunnel visioning on this? Stop being an irrelevant nitpick. FFS. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been: On February 17 2014 05:25 IAmRobik wrote: OnceKing, That's one hell of an argument for a newbie game. what's your experience? On February 17 2014 06:19 IAmRobik wrote: Let's not talk about roles There are maximum 3 maf Neither of which, while relatively unhelpful, also point towards scum. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
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Lord Tolkien
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On February 17 2014 15:12 OnceKing wrote: lol. Great job so you supported me on the lynch I started, so what? The question isn't what you did but instead how you did it. You supported my lynch by... how again? Remind me because I can't recall you actually contributing anything except trying to throw doubt on the people who started the wagon while joining the wagon yourself. The icing on the cake is now you say you're sold on the wagon when previously you were unconvinced, then you were voting him for dubious reasons -- now that you've been called on it you claim to have been solidly on it when a quick perusal of your filter shows that this is in fact not the case. On February 17 2014 06:03 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, since we're apparently getting into srs bzns the opening of Day 1, 1) Given the last of mod post, I'm going to assume that there isn't an innocent child. That also means we might not have other roles either. 2) On Amiko, he's (she's?) been helpful thus far at least in providing a spreadsheet copy for us to use. That being said, his post-role post is, as you guys noted, is kinda scummy. I disagree with this point. There's no reason to lynch lurkers Day 1 where there's limited information for them to participate anyways. The later the game goes, the more valid an option it becomes. But right now this post was pretty incredibly unhelpful, even if I do appreciate the town read. That being said, for an opening post I'm not yet entirely convinced to bandwagon. I'd prefer a stronger case to be brought up. Was my initial response to the opening of the case. This was my other response directly to Amiko: On February 17 2014 06:56 Lord Tolkien wrote: For your day 1 post: though it was long, it was fairly low-content like most of the other Day 1 posts, with the only outstanding quality of being long. Verbosity is not a redeeming quality in and of itself. I appreciate the extra info on yourself, but that wasn't necessary. We learned that: 1) you've read mafia threads before and this is your first mafia game on TL (aka like most of us, unnecessary I feel but that may just be me) 2) you claimed town (uninteresting) 3) when to expect your posts (somewhat useful, but unnecessary). Outside of that, you volunteered a town read on me for asking about the innocent child, and then advocated lynching idle players. I'm fine lynching idle players, it's a question of WHEN we lynch them. Day 1, it's a terrible idea due to limited information. You listed OneKing as an idle player and he actively contributed once he had a read, for instance. As the game progresses, then it becomes a very valid choice. As is, I would strongly recommend avoiding a Day 1 lurker lynch. The longer the game goes the better lynching lurkers becomes, but atm, no. So in general, there are reasons why it seems scummy. Not willing to condemn you based on that solely since it was one post, you did put up a decent defense and raised good points about Cavalinho. And hey let's even ask what it means about me if Amiko gets lynched flips green. Spoilers: It means absolutely nothing! If I'm town, how do I have any definite knowledge of what he is? I don't, therefore I can only use the tools I have available to me which are logic and scumhunting, now being turned onto you. It's entirely possible both of you are town, or that you, Amiko, and Cavalinho are also town. In which case, the lynch would've been unfortunate. But. given the way the case was going and the interactions involved, I'm betting at least one of you is mafia. I'm still waiting on a cognizant case against me. If that's all it amounts to, cool. I'll let everyone else judge this. Think IAmRobik's scummy, or anything? Make a case and vote him. I don't think he's scummy, just lurking; however, Cavalinho does. There's a minimal amount of posts that suggest this, which is why I'm questioning him about it. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 15:37 theDragoon wrote: I've got my eye on Lord Tolkien at this point in time mainly because of this: The problem I have with this is the soft blue claim. He's saying that a cop or similar blue role wouldn't be active on day 1 for fear of drawing attention to themselves. Then he says if he is blue, then he'd be a Veteran. I'm not really buying the whole I'm active therefore I'm a veteran thing. I feel like any townie, green or blue should try to be active so that we can gather as much info as we can. So by trying to suggest he is a blue, he can avoid 2 things: 1) getting lynched if people believe his suggestion, this works well if he's red 2) if mafia doesn't have a roleblocker and they believe he is a veteran then he avoids getting shot, he's basically banking on mafia not having a roleblocker. He'd be one of my lynch targets on day 1 just because I want to see if he's scum pretending to be blue. If he does get lynched and ends up flipping blue then it looks bad on me. However, I don't feel too strong about this one to vote him just yet. I'm saying that I would either be green, a veteran, or red. Those are the possibilities, and I would say the same of Cavalinho and OnceKing. This doesn't just apply to me. I am highly skeptical that any of the three of us are a doctor, cop, or somesuch, because those roles will prefer not to be in the limelight. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
1) I am red, in which case, I would, as you stated, ward off a lynch if people believe me. 2) I am vanilla townie, in which case I get to ward away a mafia hit on my life by dissuading them from attacking me if they believe I'm a vet, or alternately eat a roleblock or a hit if they believe I'm a blue role, or die if they believe I'm a vanilla townie (unless they have other priorities). 3) I am not a non-vet blue role, in which case I draw mafia attention, inviting myself to being roleblocked or killed by the mafia. If they believe me, I'll be left alone, if not, they can roleblock me or kill me. 4) I am the vet; if they believe me, it helps make the mafia much more willing to push a lynch on me, and help us determine who's mafia. If they don't, I can eat a hit or a roleblock. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
On February 17 2014 15:58 OnceKing wrote: Ok next question. If you are not sold on the lynch why are you voting for him still?? AND you say that you don't think IAmRobik is scummy, just inactive when you've clearly called out some of his posts as making him scummy, so what gives? You haven't done any real scumhunting thus far, and -- On February 17 2014 14:53 Lord Tolkien wrote: Alright, with a few new posts in the aftermath: 1) Cavalinho, why exactly do you think I'm scummy, or IAmRobik is scummy? I'd like to address the former, and the latter seems...confusing at best since his contributions have been minimal, and your random suspicions drawn right after his (joke) response to your joke response. His only posts have been: Neither of which, while relatively unhelpful, also point towards scum. THIS is not calling him out as scum. I was calling him out as a lurker to Cavalinho and that's it. Tell me everyone, is this calling IAmRobik out as scum like he suggests? Ahahahahaha. Lynching for "Information". Ya ok definitely voting you now. How's this for information. We lynch Lord Tolkien and he flips red. Sound good to all? How about this: if you guys do and I turn up green or blue, you guys lynch OnceKing? Because I'm now pretty sure you're scum after this post, and a town for a mafia is a pretty sure trade. | ||
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##unvote Amiko ##vote OnceKing | ||
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On February 17 2014 16:23 OnceKing wrote: oh god dammit did i seriously misread that post LOL o well, strike that point then. Alright then everyone has two options here as to what they want to believe. 1. I'm mafia. I just went from "probably town or Godfather" by posting without fear because I'm continuing to post completely unfearfully and want to get someone lynched instead of sitting back and letting the town do stupid stuff like speculate about setup or ask pointless questions such as "r u mafia" OR 2. I'm town. I think this guy who obsesses over power roles and night actions instead of lynching mafia is scum, but misread one of his posts. He votes for dubious reasons, dismisses any arguments brought against him while not addressing anything but the weakest points ("here, let me quote an old post, that will allay any fears!") or scumhunting. Also, his initial statement on Amiko basically rehashes what mine was and Lord Tolkien confusingly had his vote on him for the longest time despite "not being sold" or Amiko providing a "decent defense" because he wanted to lynch for information instead of lynching to kill scum. Lord Tolkien has contributed nothing new despite having a multitude of posts other than attacking me just now. Let's tango. Again, I'm fine with a double lynch. If I get lynched and I turn up green or blue, you lynch OnceKing. Or have vig shoot him. I'm perfectly fine with the trade. If I'm red, you got me. I'm sure this is acceptable to everyone? Or you guys can lynch him and then lynch me afterwards, whomever you feel is more scummy. I'm fine with the trade. Thus far you've been nitpicking irrelevant details in my post or making baseless, half-founded accusations. Your filter reads as either a particularly zealous town, or a mafia actively trying to confuse everyone. I'm fine with the trade, up to you guys. | ||
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On February 17 2014 16:28 theDragoon wrote: @Lord Tolkien, you didn't exactly call out IAmRobik as scum but you did say that IAR's posts point towards scum. OnceKing said: I believe he is correct. I should've made it clearer, then. My sentence structures can get meandering at times. Again, I blame lack of editing capabilities and a late night. I meant that he was a lurker, and not scummy in his read-through. Look above. Or you can cite the posts where I call him scummy; there's only one, and it was in reference to Cavalinho. Can you tell me why you strongly believe OnceKing is mafia? He started the vote on Amiko, which gained a bit of ground then switched to you. If he was mafia, why would he switch from Amiko, who was getting a lot of suspicious looks from people, including yourself. He said he wanted to split votes to generate more discussion, which isn't really a scum move and it favors town since mafia can't easily bandwagon. I'm not entirely coherent at this hour now, but I'll do my best (at worst I'll post a clarifying post later). My initial impression of him was either that he was mafia actively attempting to shape and lead the discussion, or a particularly proactive town member. I wasn't entirely sure which one he was (and it is possible Calvainho was also), which is why I supported the lynch against Amiko, as I noted time and again, and was willing to move forward on Day 2 depending on which way he flipped. If he was red, then cool. If green, there's enough basis for a trade. That was my reasoning. If you feel it's flawed and a mistake, fine, whatever, but that was my reasoning. On OnceKing, thus far, he's ultimately lead us to look at the most random, meaningless details in his post. See his initial accusation on Amiko, which was valid at the time. He's been encouraging other people to make the brunt of the cases and arguments, and hasn't ACTUALLY contributed to them to begin with. He brought up the case against me after Amiko brought up his analysis of my vote and my apparent apathy vote. After that, he cobbled together a case that consisted of meaningless details and red herrings. My joke read on Beneather for instance, or my injection of (newbie) into a post. Thus to me, he's been bandwagoning his case after Amiko raised his valid points, and largely making a big deal about meaningless details in my filter. Now it's also entirely possible both of us are town, and my read on him is wrong, and he is indeed just a zealous townie pouncing on meaningless details. In which case, a double-lynch would potentially result in town losing if there are 3 mafia and they get a night kill (or one turn away from it if roleblock and vet come into play). That would be unfortunate, so I'll let you guys decide whether or not he is. | ||
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On February 17 2014 16:57 Cavalinho wrote: My big issue with the lynches being discussed is that I don't think Amiko and Lord Tolkein can be a team. I seriously doubt Tolkein would bus him so easily and without further discussion, as pointed out by Beneather. If one is town, the other is mafia. I don't think there would be a reason for them to just randomly vote each other with so much at stake in such an active, unspammy d1. It is entirely possible that we are both town. That is another possibility that you forgot to mention, and I am perfectly willing to accept that I was willing to lynch another townie. As I noted, it was a lynch for further info on you and OnceKing. I have stated this before, and I will continue to state this; I was not sure if my read on OnceKing was either a moderate town read or a mafia read. I'm still not entirely sure about you being mafia or town. Your analysis at times has had holes, both in post where you discussed Night 1 possibilities. If you think that's a mistake, fine. But that was my take on the situation. (For the record, I think IAmRobik is scum because of the way he was pointlessly defending Amiko earlier, by using the exact same reasoning that makes Amiko suspicious.) So this is assuming Amiko is scum. Very possible still, mind you, and having him actually contribute Day 1 would be very nice, but his read isn't strong for me. Reads far more like a patient lurker at this time, which could just as well mean he's a blue role. Or you are right, and he could be red. It might be worth bringing up, actually. And OnceKing is my strong townread as of right now. I see absolutely no reason for anyone to vote him for any reason, so Lord Tolkein voting him makes my stomach churn. And why is he a strong town-read for you? I've also noticed that I'm starting to get really aggravated from Amiko's attacks on me; I know that I'm town, and I'm already losing my patience with someone trying to find hidden meaning in my accusations. Instead of just trying to tunnel him, I propose we all start following a more rigid guideline for this first lynch in order to stop all the OMGUS'ing going on. You should stop being annoyed by it, because people naturally get scummy reads on accusers, especially Day 1. If they're town, they'll think it's scummy. If they're scum, they'll call you scummy. OnceKing's accusations have made me review his filter and chronology a second time, closely, for instance, and followup on my initial gut impression. I should note is that he started asking for reads after I made my initial list of reads, and listed him as either town or scum. His attempts to encourage discussion and push on me occurred after that (I'm reading this as his attempting to establish a town read0; he was not involved in the case against Amiko outside the initial post, which may simply just be an attempt to confuse people (or convince people that they aren't working together; either way). Your suggestion is sound, however. I'll lay it down. To open a case, one person proposes a person to be lynched and examined. When one case is open, you can't raise another person up for lynching. If people agree, that person gets voted for lynching, if not, the case can be closed and another person can be proposed after X number of votes to be overturned (say majority-1). This would be for future lynchings; I doubt it'll suffice for the Day 1 lynching given limited time. I'm perfectly fine of you guys want to raise a vote or case on me right now, as long as you lynch OnceKing or shoot him when I turn up green or blue. If I end up red and he's correct, yay for town. If I'm not, I'd like some post-mortem followup on my read. ...worst comes to worst, we're both town, but I'm pretty sure he's scum at this point. My personal impression is that it is unlikely that Cal~ is not working with Amiko with the sniping, unless it's a masterful ploy of misdirection which is working beautifully. So both can't be mafia. Either they are both town or one of them is mafia, but not both. It is possible for Amiko and OnceKing to both be mafia, one of them mafia, or both be town (the last I'm now incredibly doubtful of given my read of OnceKing). Reads: My read of Cal is that his analysis is at times lacking. For instance the recent mentioning of Amiko and me both being town, which confuses things, as I accepted that he could as well be town during my reasoning. The other was the discussion of what happens Day 2 after the flip. Either you or Amiko are scum, or both are town. My current impression here is muddled. Amiko is still very possibly scum. See above. I may need to update my read of OnceKing further to make it cognizant, but I stated it already and everyone is clear about it now. Wasn't sure when the case was going on, but since then it's been increasingly glaring to me. I would like to see more contribution from IAmRodrik, and bringing up a case against him might spark that. If you want to do that, go ahead (either now or Day 2, up to you guys). This is my last post of the night. I'm pooped.. | ||
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On February 17 2014 16:59 Cavalinho wrote: Off topic, but I just realized I've been spelling Lord Tolkien's name wrong this whole thread...Lol. im just gonna call you cal or cav from now on, too long to type <3 | ||
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Regarding Myself 1) Why on Earth would I make such an a fairly noticeable lynch vote on Amiko if I was mafia? If I were mafia and he were town, I could just soft-defend him given his town read on me and reap the credibility it would give me, instead of taking all this damn scrutiny. There's no benefit for me to try and make a lynch vote that early; instead I could switch reluctantly later or continue a basically null vote, and not be under scrutiny at all. No gain. If he were scum and I were scum, similarly, why would I throw him under the bus in that manner? Unless to separate our allegiances if we flipped, but that's...still kinda a bad play, unless there's 3 mafia and you can afford it (or I am confident enough as a mafia player to run with it for the rest of the game). I doubt Amiko would agree to it if that's the case, though. If he was mafia and I was town, then all very well and good, and if we were both town, then it would've been unfortunate, but as I said it was a vote I was willing to take to determine how Cavalinho and OnceKing fell. I think we're all tired of this topic however, so I won't bring it up anymore. @ Amiko: Regarding the non-speculation of night action; the post you cited was in response to Cavalinho's and to point out a hole in his analysis (which there have been a few thus far). I previously listed what the possible courses of actions might be depending on how mafia read me, but I have no idea how they will actually read me, so I'm not going to commit to saying I will eat a roleblock, or a shot, or blue shenanigans, just the possible actions they might take. I was giving the possible motives and reasons why I would mention the veteran being possibly among me when people were questioning me), Cavalinho, and OnceKing, and the dearth of other blues. @ IAmRobrik: On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: Up to this point, Valenius has done nothing but post random, uninteresting stuff and talk about game setup. Talking about game setup is an easy way for scum to look active without providing any content. Rereading his filter, you do raise some valid points. I still don't see why commenting on roles is a bad thing for town (mafia will be doing it anyways in their QT), but his comments, when pressed for reads on myself, Amiko, and Cavalinho, were skimpy and "safe". Nothing that wasn't already pointed out before by everyone else prior, and he was fairly non-antagonistic about it. It is a good avenue to explore and a read to pursue. I disagree with you on Day 1 lurker lynching (it gives us nothing on Day 2 if there's a green flip), but that's irrelevant now. On February 18 2014 05:01 IAmRobik wrote: Additionally, I'm fairly certain that Cavalinho was the first to ping me as suspicious He was. @ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet. Current reads: Valenius has largely been unhelpful Day 1, and has put out a nonsense vote. This either indicates he's still unsure (given our gamestate, entirely possible) and unwilling to commit, or is biding his time until later stages of the game. He reads, to me. It depends how he plays in Day 2. Beneather falls under this category too; I would put them under close scrutiny Day 2. theDragoon is most probably town. The he was properly critical of a number of my errors, and was willing to ask for clarification, though his filter is very skimpy. Still, his posts have been useful contributions despite the dearth of them (thus far). N1k0, I heavily disagree with his reasoning about Amiko being possible red. His first post wasn't much of an attempt to drive discussion, and he isn't playing very "godfathery" to me since. It was an introduction (unnecessary info about him self), a comment about my question about the lack of innocent child modpost, and raising a lurker lynch issue. It was abit scummy, and the best we had to go for at the time, but currently it doesn't sound like mafia talk. If you're going to vote for Cavalinho, I would like you to expand on your reasoning for him some more. At best either a weak town read or weak scum read. Additionally, I agree; Cavalinho and OnceKing can't both be red. Unsure about IAmRobrik. He doesn't, currently, read strongly either way to me. I'd like more analysis as to why you order people the way you did. My current strongest town read is currently Amiko, despite my earlier vote. He has, thus far, given clear answers, and given clear reasoning behind it, and they've been fairly strong thus far. I am suspicious of Cavalinho; as I noted, his analysis has holes in it at times, some of which were "best case" red scenarios. Additional to that, his push on IAmRobrik at the time still strikes me as odd: it was at the time characteristics of a lurker, not a scum. As I stated earlier, neither of his Robrik's initial posts pointed towards him being scummy; the first post about experience is non-committal, and something I would discard largely. He's also probably red, given his attempts to deflect. If he flips green, well fk. That makes double-lynching me and OnceKing far too risky. I remain highly critical of OnceKing (and I will continue in my apparently lone dissent about it). My reasoning in previous posts stands, and if he is red, he's godfather (as I'm currently pretty certain OnceKing is, and that's my take on him). I will retain my vote on him to note my read, unless something crazy, like a lynch on someone who isn't cal or me (or OnceKing, but no one is apparently going to agree to it until I turn up dead and town), is put forward and about to go through. There are no other good Day 1 lynch targets currently, and we are the clear options at this point. I repeat my request that OnceKing be lynched when I turn up town on a lynch, however. | ||
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On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole. In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing. I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself. But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia. Two things: one, most of your posts have mostly been expressing frustration that Amiko's focusing on you. You've had "productive posts", but they're all focused on defending yourself and trying thus far to condemn Amiko. Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik First, there was no pointing at me previously, The only reference to me previously was: His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you [, Lord Tolkien] posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him. After my first two posts on Amiko and a side-tracked conversation with Valernius about possible roles. And the push onto IAmRobik at the time, with the posts we had at hand, is very questionable, which I've already raised. This also raises the question why you aren't voting me after switching from Amiko. On February 18 2014 08:41 Cavalinho wrote:I stand by the fact that N1k0 is our best lynch target right now. He has contributed nothing and contradicts his own reasoning for pushing a lynch. Amiko, at the very least, tries. What he's saying is stupid and wrong, but he's trying. Justify it, why and how does he contradict himself? As it stands, I'm probably the best lynch target next to you, and I'm fine with it if my lynch accomplishes something (it is only Day 1 after all). | ||
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On February 18 2014 08:43 Cavalinho wrote: Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign. You replied too fast. I would like to see the contradictions in N1k0's posts. I didn't see it in my read throughs. I'll look again, but an explanation helps outside of "he's contradictory". | ||
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On February 18 2014 02:54 N1k0 wrote: Amiko He's more likely to be town than maf, in the case hes red hes more likley to be Godfather than Roleblocker or Goon( tho i dont think theres any roleblockers since we are only 9 players) so i wouldnt waste an investigation on him since him being a Goon is the less likely scenario. Why do i think he likely to be the Godfather in the scenario he is mafia? because of him trying to drive the conversation at the start of the day and then fading away. That being said i feel hes more likely to be town because of the fact that he hasn't been trying to deflect the threats he has received, but instead he been posting with the interest of town in his mind instead of trying to save himself. I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning. Cavalinho At the moment i feel like hes the most likely to be a red since his fast jump on OnceKing's accusation of Amiko, i feel like he saw an opportunity to get some traction behind a lynch early and jumped on it. In the case Cavalinho ends up being red that would probably mean OnceKing is town since i dont think they would both vote so quickly on the same target if they both were mafia. Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation. Lord Tolkien I dont really know what to think, hes trying hard to get someone lynched and as soon as he saw the case against Amiko losing traction he switched his stance and went against OnceKing. He's seems to be pushing for any lynch as long as its one that would have an important effect on the lynch on d2 which i feel worried about since we dont really know how many mafia there are and getting a townie (or even a blue) lynched against 3 reds would put us on a hard position. Ultimately i'm leaning to think hes town since he appears to be ok with him getting lynched as long as it results in a lynch of OnceKing on d2 who he believes to be mafia (tho he could be bluffing). My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me). You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it. Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red. OnceKing I feel like he is the less likely to be scum because of his being the first to throw a stone at someone, which could of getting him a lot of attention on him. If Lord Tolkien ends up being green or blue it would probably raise my suspicions of him but for the moment i really feel like hes town. In the possible scenario that im wrong and he ends up being mafia that would probably mean there where 3 reds (instead of the more likely 2 because of being 9 players) since if there where only 2 it would be less likely for one of them to throw the first accusation at someone. I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far. But it again is just me, and people don't believe me. I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation. For the momment im gonna go with the ##vote Cavalinho but i'm not too confident on it Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it. I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched. | ||
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If he turns up red, cool! We actually caught one Day 1! If green? wat do | ||
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1) He was green or blue (vet most likely possibility in which case). 2) Non-godfather red. Note he was the one who suggested (probably correctly) that Cop look elsewhere instead of the most vocal posters. IF he was GF, he would welcome searches to waste cop turns. Idle speculation post, however: I want to see if I'm right. He's scum, but not as scummy as I think OnceKing is. | ||
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On February 18 2014 09:25 OnceKing wrote: You do so the exact same here! You've justified it as lynching for information but as I've already said Amiko flipping green would say absolutely nothing about my alignment (though perhaps something about Cavalinho's bandwagon vote!), merely that I thought he was scum. Do you disagree with that? However I also believed that we had reached an impasse and have discussed the topic of your motivations for voting me and my motivations for voting you to death, so I wanted to get people's reads on other things. In my eyes, yes. I'm generally suspicious of people who start lynches so early in a mafia game. I already justified my swap onto death, and I maintain that stance (and am currently asking for clarification). I am not advocating a lynch onto N1K0, again his lynch would accomplish nothing, and I'm being extra harsh on his contradictions. And I again emphasize: what the hell did I have to gain from making that post and vote? It's not just about what looks scummy, but what looks scummy and advances a mafia agenda. What did I have to gain from it as opposed to remaining silent or start to strongly defend Amiko, again? You pointed out that it looks scummy, and I it is without the context I provided (and I've reiterated time and again), but you haven't provided a definitive motive. This is why my alarm bells are ringing. And you're still pointing out meandering details, nor gave out the same kind of expanded read analysis of everyone here, beyond just tunneling lynch attempts. I'm not going to rehash everything unless a formal case is brought up against you or me. Cal/cav quoted the post I made about that, let's implement it. | ||
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On February 18 2014 09:38 N1k0 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2014 09:10 Lord Tolkien wrote: Fine. For you cal, I'll do one last analysis of it, and be extra critical of his post. I addressed this before: his initial post is not enough to condemn him as godfather, and he didn't "fade away". It can be construed as scummy yes, but the other conclusions aren't the best. He was indeed deflecting the threats at the time of his case opening, and attempting to explain his reasoning. Your argument is mostly just about his bandwagoning. Is there any other reason you're voting him over, say, me? I would like an explanation. My issue with this underlined section is that I swapped my stance against OnceKing after he swapped over to me, I think that's pretty clear. I already stated I was unsure if he was just pointing fingers and just letting town tear themselves apart with no firm commitment himself as a godfather, or just a townie who's just directing town attention instead of actively participating with definitive reads and reasoning, and it was solidified after the random move onto me (and indicated as such before he pushed onto me). You are correct: I'm looking for a lynch on Day 1 that will have the most impact for town in Day 2, given the unlikelihood of us actually lynching scum. If I'm that lynch, so be it, I'm fine with it. Based on your analysis, the extrapolation is that we should be lynching me Day 1, so we can get a clear picture of OnceKing and lynch him, or progress onto Cal Day 2 if I ended up turning red. I still don't buy this, as being the first one to throw the stone, and then not really committing to the case, is just as readily done by a godfather looking to misdirect town attention; first onto Amiko, and then about-face onto me, after I gave my read about him either being town or possibly godfather. If I ended up green or blue, no suspicion would've been cast onto him if I wasn't being so vocal about a double-lynch (or vig shot at night if I turned up green). He was directly pushing hard onto me until I brought that up; now he's just referencing it in passing instead of actively pushing a case (like Amiko, again), and that I think is damning. His opinions are fairly unclear, and without strong reasoning involved thus far. But it again is just me, and people don't believe me. I also don't see why there needs to be three mafia with him being the first one to throw an accusation. That's a needless extrapolation. Very indecisive, potential for yourself to pull it out later and say you weren't sure. Personally, I take it scummy; indecisive votes are my pet peeve. Decide on a vote and be decisive about it. I'll open this up as a possible valid avenue of lynch and be willing to move my vote to him if everyone else decides upon it, but there's very little time and I'm expecting Cav or me (currently it appears to beCav) to be lynched. I'll try to respond to the doubts you have but ill be brief since im heading out First about Amiko, i started feeling him to be a red but as the day went on this suspicion went lower and lower, currently i believe him to be town, the reason i think that if he is red he's likely to be godfather is that since he tried to start the conversation which would most likely bring attention to himself which if he were red would make him vulnerable to not only getting lynched but also an investigation (which would not be a problem if he were godfather), but as i said i feel he is more likely to be town that mafia at the moment. Why Cavalinho and not you, Cavalinho seems way more defensive than you do, and you argue with the town in mind instead of trying to save your own ass, even saying that what good could actually come out of your lynch (tho you could be a really good bluffer), plus i feel like Cavalinho jumped way too fast behind OnceKing's acusation of Amiko, 10 minutes after OnceKing's post looks like he saw an opportunity to get traction behind someone and jumped on it before it could fade away. I agree with you that my indecisive vote is a really scummy thing to do, but i was just being honest about it, i am not sure of his mafianess but i feel like he is the most likely one to be at the time. Im heading out now, but ill try to come back before the end of the cycle. Thank you for the response. That clears up most of my lingering doubts, and all the clarification I needed. In the future, justify your vote more prominently (I should've done the same when I voted for Amiko). Again, your lynch doesn't accomplish anything at this juncture. | ||
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On February 18 2014 09:45 theDragoon wrote: The bolded part I think is a slip and is probably the biggest tell for a scum Lord Tolkien. ##Vote Lord Tolkien ...what. How the fuck is that a slip? | ||
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On February 18 2014 11:18 IAmRobik wrote: Why Cavalinho if he's tied with n1k0 and Tolkien? On February 18 2014 10:54 Promethelax wrote: the player who reaches the highest number of votes first is lynched It's strange, but I suppose to prevent a "no lynch" situation. | ||
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IAmRobik's also voted for him. | ||
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I do have new suspicions based on vote justifications thus far (depends on how cav falls), but if the latter does happen, take the convo I and Caval had and try to organize a scumhunting system. | ||
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On February 18 2014 11:46 OnceKing wrote: Err... how is it a slip for LT to say that scum are probably discussing something on their QT? I see it as speculation at worst, I mean it's stated in the OP that scum have their own QT lol. Care to elaborate, theDragoon? Yeah, that's mostly what I was alluding to in my prior post. There are better reasons to lynch me than that (and argued to death), and you can put a far more compelling case. It's not the lynching vote I object to, it's the justification for the vote. Re: expanded read analysis of everyone There's no purpose towards me making a list of everyone and saying what I think of them. Is this what you're asking for LT? I mean, what does it add to discussion if I say I don't know what to think of Beneather, for example? You would learn basically nothing if I only say things that are very moderate, so I post only my strongest reads -- who I think is probably mafia, and who I think is most clearly town. That is fair. That being said, I would like to hear far more of your own opinion, and to elaborate on your strongest reads. Right now my "definitely town" list is myself, Amiko and theDragoon. Obviously, your definitely town list includes yourself, and you have previously noted why you think Amiko is town, but why theDragoon? That being said, I just realized you previously made the comment about N1k0's indecisive vote before I did. | ||
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Time to reread everything. | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:21 Cavalinho wrote: Wait, why is N1k0 alive and why am I dead? We have the same number of votes. As do we, but it's based on time. First person to get the most, even if tied, is lynched apparently. | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:22 Cavalinho wrote: Oh, nevermind, I see it. Well, goodbye. I'm going to be very angry at the lot of you when this game is done. Enjoy the spectator QT (I'm fairly certain there is one). | ||
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If you think someone's mafia (or is worth investigating), put it up for a vote. After another player seconds, and we all collectively examine that person's filter, The person making the claim presents his case, the defendant presents his rebuttal, everyone gets to ask questions. Closing the case for the day can be done after there are no more questions, and after (say, 3-4 votes). We can keep multiple cases open at once, as well, perhaps. Any objections, or amendments to make? | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:40 IAmRobik wrote: I disagree Tolkien What do you disagree about? | ||
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On February 18 2014 12:48 IAmRobik wrote: Having people go in a strict order is super scummy and an easy way for mafia to control the way the game goes. Alright, I can see what you mean by that. I'll drop the suggestion. On February 18 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote: Also, there were no n0 actions and calavinho wasn't a town power role, so there's no real reason to delve deep into what he said other than if you want to create mislynches...I say this knowing that I'm town and he thought I was leaning scummy, so I know his reads aren't spot on. So you're saying we can't learn anything from them? There are issues with his filter, in that his posts are greatly focused on Amiko in particular, until his relatively unreasoned n1k0 switch. We can talk about it tomorrow after we have more information due to night actions, but it shouldn't be salvageable. | ||
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Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well. My four options at the time were: 1) Switch onto Cavalinho (fairly pointless as he was going to die) 2) Vote for myself (if I felt that the lynch on Cavalinho and N1k0 were unwarranted enough, and that I really did feel OnceKing was scum) 3) Vote for N1K0 4) Maintain my effective non-vote My read on Cavalinho was trending towards scummy because of his close-to-lynch posts and other things I’ve noted. N1k0 did have discrepancies in his first post, but I maintain my policy that it’s still better not to lynch lurkers until Day 2, and I was less sure of Cavalinho’s green flip then N1k0 at the time. The case was brought up near the end of Day 1, and we wouldn’t have much to go on if it was just a green flip: then we would very likely lynch Cavalinho because of it, and we’d be down 2 players. NIGHT 1 READS On Lurkers At this stage, I feel both Valenius is the “scummiest” lurkers and most likely to be mafia out of the pool. He voted IAmRobik, when no real case was brought up against him unlike against myself or Cavalinho (or switch on N1k0’s late case), and is really just a random OMGUS vote. It really reads inconsistent here, since he didn’t vote Cavalinho when it was brought up (stating he can’t read me or Amiko). Beneather raised the point with his vote, and I would have a look at the filter. I’m opening his case up as a lynch target come Day 2, and I feel much better about bringing up a case against him than against N1K0 at this time. N1k0’s case is out there, and I’m not commenting on it further, as I don’t think the situation has changed all that much, despite Cavalinho’s green flip. While it's compelling to pursue further, it's not enough for a case I feel. theDragoon’s vote reads as a confused town; still reads town, but the vote justification was WTF? Beneather similarly reads town to me despite his sparse posts, and IAmRobik reads super town to me now, especially considering his night posts (and steering me away from some potentially disastrous suggestions). On Day 1Active Participants At this stage, I don’t think at this stage any of us are mafia, unless the GF has done a masterful job blending in, and likely won. I’ll explain below. I’m dropping the case on OnceKing with his posts and convo with me close to the end of the Day 1 phase, now that I've had time to mull them over from a less heated standpoint. The issue I had which made me jump on him and view him as scum were the multiple minor details he was bringing up in his initial case on me; it felt like grasping for straws, so to speak. I am still going to be critical of his posts for inconsistencies and when his posts are far too aggressive like that. I’m also withdrawing the double lynch proposal, because it’s too dangerous now in Day 2 in the POSSIBILITY there are 3 mafia members (doubt it, but even with 2 it gives far too little margin of error), in conjunction with my change of read on him. To explain my change and initial read of "moderate town or godfather (I think?)": I was jaded by a past experience of an active mafia member gunning for me and others Day 1 based on meaningless “tells” (I ended up getting him with a double lynch proposal, with him lynched first, but since there was no flips in the setup, I got lynched next turn and mafia won because I forgot that there was the possibility of a second one, so the gambit failed). This is incidentally why theDragoon’s vote justification confused me. I’m still going to be more critical of cases you bring up for now on, but I’m now fairly certain you’re town. IAmRobik currently speaks town talk. He corrected my Night 1 mistakes quickly and decisively, and nipped them from going further and clogging up discussion (this is my first online mafia, so I wasn’t sure how to proceed at Night). And since he started contributing, he's contributed fairly well, and gave honest reads, even with some scant justification at times. This is why I think bringing up lurkers as lynch targets very early was questionable policy. Amiko, despite his mislynch case on Cavalinho, still feels town, as the premature analysis he posted was solid for a preliminary post, and it stands as a definite contribution to town for us to further analyze vote patterns against reads. He reads fairly solidly town to me. Appended section based on Night Actions I am slightly surprised that they didn’t decide to kill OnceKing. It would be a clear way to implicate me, as I am currently most peoples’ scummiest read (or perhaps it’s too obvious), but the way IAmRobik was trending, he was shaping to be a strong town. Alternately, they could’ve done the same with me since I didn’t call off the double-lynch beforehand, but that would be eliminating a potential Day 2 lynch target entirely. The frustrating part is that I don’t think it gives us much to go on. Both of the votes on N1k0 are dead, but it might just be mafia exploiting the situation to get a mislynch going. Robik’s night posts were drawn out by my own and Amiko’s posts, however, so we are both culpable here (though he did start shaping up to be someone who was actively shaping discussion away from continued Day 1 shenanigans). I don’t think Amiko was baiting IAmRobik into posting further during night, given the length of his post suggests he was writing it before he saw my and Robik’s exchange. In hindsight, I think I was the one doing that. It is entirely possible that one of us is mafia (if you take this line of approach, I should be more scummy because I threw the first stone, so to speak). The alternate possibility is that it was done to cast us in a negative light, and I will leave it up to you guys to weigh it yourselves, or think of other possibilities. It may also be that Robik was onto good leads, but there’s not much we can say about that. The case on N1K0 is still valid. I’m not sure what else we can draw from it. Comments, criticisms? I'm putting together the Valenius case soon (tm). | ||
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1) His first relevant post to go off my quick note that we don't have an innocent child for an early town confirmation (while I was first stepping into Amiko's post), into a discussion about town roles that I participated in. 2) His first contribution when pushed for a read amounted to agreeing with me about not lynching lurkers early, and making a comment about me nothing Amiko's spreadsheet, nor contributed anything interesting of note on Amiko. The biggest point of note is why he thought IAmRobik was scum based on his 2 posts prior, the first was inconsequential, and the second directing us away from not to talk about role breakdown. It's an odd gut feeling to have based on his posts (I made the same comment with Cavalinho about his early suspicions of IAmRobik). 3) His next post of note is + Show Spoiler + Not particularly, although I'm unsure on the argument for not checking the active players. If some of the active players are in fact mafia, they could lead the game to a mafia win easier than I think the lurkers could. However, as with the lynching discussion, checking lurkers could be better due to getting better reads from those who are posting frequently. 4) I really do think he's just been too non-committal this phase, and his contributions have been far more negligible than other "lurkers", despite having more posts. I would like comments and criticisms about this analysis. He's the scummiest I've got, and I figured I needed to raise the case. At the very least, to get him to be active. | ||
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Cavalinho noted that he wasn't changing his vote (he was heading to the gym), and that by then, he was fairly certain all the active players in the thread were not scum. That is why he did not vote for me, and looked at N1k0 (and drew my attention to him). I've at this point reached the same conclusion as well, and that we should be looking at lurkers. My guess is that two of the lurkers are mafia and watched us fruitlessly scumhunt (why I'm not a fan of Day 1 lynch cases), and the scummiest reads there that I have are Valenius and N1K0, in that order. Even if there is one among the active participants (I don't think that's very likely anymore), I have utter conviction that two out of three are mafia given our stances on the Amiko case, and my and OnceKing's spat. It may be masterful play if two of us were able to pull it off to throw everyone off their game (in which case, I think that you two have won the game already). In this case, I feel the best play is to look at lurkers, because I'm fairly certain there's at least 1-2 in a pool of 4, and a 0-1 chance in a pool of 3. Better odds, so to speak. I'm still an open lynch target though if you guys feel like it. I don't think OnceKing is scum anymore (most likely), however and I don't feel that a Day 2 lynch of myself is going to reveal info if I turn up Green (which was why I was fine with being lynched Day 1). | ||
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:< Can't even make a Bear of the Moon quip in TLOLOTGD. | ||
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The parenthesis is just me noting that I currently doubt Amiko and OnceKing are working together in this (but if they were, they've probably won since town isn't likely to lynch both of them). This is a POSSIBLE scenario, but I don't think it's REALISTIC. At most, there's 1 mafia among the three of us, and I think our pool is entirely town at this point. This is why I think we should be going after Day 1 lurkers today (where all my scummy reads are currently). There's at least 1 mafia there, maybe 2. If there are 3 mafia, they win with one mislynch and a nightkill. I dont think there are 3 mafia, but that's irrelevant atm. | ||
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@ theDragoon + Show Spoiler + On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. While this is a plausible outcome, the same applies to myself and OnceKing, or OnceKing and Amiko, and Amiko and myself. I disagree, in that I find it highly unlikely that mafia would bring up a reasonable case against themselves FIRST (as Beneather's was), . and that extrapolating that if Valenius flipped red, it would entail his complicity. It could be possible that they are, but as with my previous explanation of why I think it's unlikely we have MORE than one mafia amongst the 3 Day 1 participants, I apply my skepticism here as well. It's far more likely for mafia to start bussing one of their own when the lynch seems nearly inevitable. That being said, Beneather did post his vote after you posted yours on myself and we had ourselves a possible deadlock, so it is a possible explanation for that. However, I am just going to apply Occam's Razor for a moment and view that as mere coincidence. His continued non-contribution concerns me, however. Additionally, what is your view on N1K0? You've spent most of your analysis on just Valenius and the possibilities that arise from lynching him. It's not a shoo-in at this point. What do you think a red flip of N1K0 means? @ Valenius + Show Spoiler + At the time of my leaving this thread to sleep, which I made a post about, the votes were: cavalinho: (2) Amiko, N1k0 IAmRobik: (1) Valenius Lord Tolkien: (1) OnceKing Beneather: (0) theDragoon: (0) Amiko: (1) Lord Tolkien OnceKing: (1) N1k0: (1) cavalinho This vote tally is thus far incorrect. Going to your sleep post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=11#211 and working forward until then from the last vote count: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=9#173 My vote was on OnceKing at that time, and Cavalinho's vote was on Amiko (NOT N1k0; he had no votes on him). I was originally going to point out that based on the vote post beforehand Amiko had no votes, but reviewing Cavalinho's filter, you are correct, as it would've been a MAJOR discrepancy. That being said, your sleep post was posted 45 minutes before Cavalinho swapped his vote to N1k0. Voting for Robik at the time, with not case presented is odd, and I feel everyone else has done a good enough job picking out why it was (link). If you had felt that he was scum, you should've brought it up and pushed it, like I was poking Cavalinho to do based on his early scumread on IAmRobik (he didn't). On your analysis + Show Spoiler + The second post, dissuading my inquest into game setup (Note: Not role setup, game setup) was just dismissing my question. As i’ve stated since, my question wasn’t an aim to dig out roles of people, but to find out the Mafia/Town setup. I still disagree with those of you that say this isn’t important. 3 Mafia: If we mislynch tonight, we lose. 2 Mafia: There’s another day. Behaviour patterns. If you’re looking for 3 mafia, and trying to make connections between 3 players, and it turns out there’s only 2.. your whole analysis of player relations will be off.The same is true for the other situation. The goal is not to mislynch tonight. A Day 1 mislynch is highly probable due to the lack of information to extrapolate from. While the point about behavior is noted, this is not relevant today (and arguably Day 1). It changes the likelihood and distribution of scum to probably be 2 lurkers+1 active Day 1 participant most likely, from 1-2 lurkers and 0-1 active Day 1 participant pools. It doesn't change our main strategy or lynch pattern at this time. We'll know if there are 2-3 mafia if we mislynch green (because we'll likely lose during the night if 3); if we lynch a red, then it becomes useful to extrapolate whether or not we have 1 or 2 left. This is more relevant Day 3 given our current trajectory. When I read Robik's quoted post on you, I construed it as mostly as a joke, (and if not, mafia bait). You reacted quite strongly to it. The same goes for the underlined quote. Your reaction to both was certainly scummy. I won't comment on your additional thoughts (I agree with some of them, and disagree with others), but on the questions specifically directed towards me. + Show Spoiler + Tolkien’s post following last night (Feb 19, 13:49). You stated that my vote on Robik was when no real case was brought up against me. Then, in your discussion on arguments with OnceKing you stated the issue you had were the multiple minor details he was bringing up ‘Grasping for straws’. This is the same reason which made me vote him. His original read on my scummy-ness was because I went to bed at 3:00am when the game started. Just wtf. My main focus was the fact he was pointing out joke lines (which I thought were clear) and specific word usage, ex. (newbie), in his initial lynch case against me. Unlike with Robik, there was essentially a formal case presented by him against me which I found worrying alarm bells in (instead of just pouncing on Robik for his reads). The other points are valid and I would not have gotten a mafia read if he had just pointed those out without mentioning the other points. Again, it was a joke line from what I can tell, or bait. + Show Spoiler + In your response to Tolkiens questions about your first real post you brought up that LT saying what good could come out of his lynch.. on Day1, with an undetermined amount of mafia, no. That’s not a good town play, by either of you. Following a lynch policy for 2 days, also allows for 2 mafia kills, leading to a total of 4 kills. Assuming one of you were mafia; You’ve either got 4:1 (initially 2 mafia) or 3:2 (initially 3 mafia. The 4:1 isn’t bad odds, and wouldn’t be a terrible solution. 3:2 would be ridiculous, going to lynch wrong and lose based on day 1 assumptions.. in what world is that good odds? Assuming neither of you were mafia, and you both had bad reads.. the game’s practically over. 3:2 (initial 2 mafia), or Dead start of night two (initial 3 mafia). 1 in 4 of those situations is one that i’d choose to be in. Either way, it’s pretty scummy. Tolkien. you’ve been reasonably smart throughout so far, did you not run the numbers? This and your much earlier carelessness for lynching Amiko “at this point it doesnt matter” are showing you as very lynch-happy. If you’re bluffing and hoping the “I’ll martyr myself” post for lynchings was a town move, it isn’t. I’m disappointed I didn’t pick up on it earlier. I need clarification on the first part. Are you talking about the double-lynch proposal? On the second part, noted, but I've discussed this to death, and explained myself here far too often. @N1K0 I do have a strong town read on LT, i would have a moderate town read on theDragoon if it wasnt because of his vote on LT because he thought he saw a mafia slip on him. Why do you have a strong town read on me? If I were stepping back from myself for a moment, I wouldn't have a strong town read on myself after Day 1. Middling at best. Also, why do you read theDragoon as town again, and why did his vote on me impact your read so? That being said, ##vote n1k0, based solely on the quality of contributions thus far from the two, but I am strongly reserving the right to change my vote pending additional analysis, and I am still waiting on Beneather to comment today. Still, this is where I'm leaning now. | ||
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In case the mods can't see it. :o | ||
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On February 20 2014 16:09 Valenius wrote: Secondly, yes the double lynch situation put forward of lynching yourself, but only if we lynch onceking in the following day. It's a gambit I was willing to take at the time. If I turned up red, there is no reason for you to lynch him: if I turn up green, there's still no need for you to actually follow through on it, no one actually agreed to it. The trade is only bad if there are 3 mafia: if there are only 2 mafia and my read was correct, the exchange is incredibly good. Even if there were 3 mafia, it's still 2 mislynches and we lose. As we were likely going to mislynch anyways Day 1, It would've been worth it. As is, the proposal was still useful despite it's non-use for me to gauge other players and their reactions (despite my wavering as the game progressed). I'm not commenting on anything hypothetical about mafia numbers until after the flip, and any speculation right now is silly. If there are 3 mafia and a green flip, they win. If it's a green flip and they don't win, we have 2 mafia. If red flip, either 1 mafia (most likely) or 2. No use talking about it. The flip will determine the course of the game and how the effective endgame will play out. Depending on the flip, the vigi (if we have one) should shoot tonight or tomorrow night 100%. If green, and we don't lose (we most likely won't lose), I would shoot their scummiest read tonight. 50% chance of hitting scum, skewed by reads. If red, up to you. On February 21 2014 05:54 Beneather wrote:You say that you have a strong read on Cavalinho being town but you keep your vote on Robik instead of trying to save the obvious town Cavalinho. It still doesn't make sense to me( I think someone brought this up but whatever). His post that he went to sleep makes sense, given timezone and vote distribution at the time, despite the errors in his defense. The reasoning clears. On Tolkien his read is very town to me and I would be shocked if he was scum. He has been the most active and his posts have a lot of content in them. Why? Your reads on everyone else? I asked for that last time and you didn't provide. I'm honestly on the fence about whom I feel is scummiest, but given N1K0 has given basically no defense for himself, I can't even in good conscience change it. | ||
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N1K0, if you're green, STOP WHY DIDN'T YOU DEFEND YOURSELF FFSSSSSSSS~ if red, no comment | ||
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On February 21 2014 12:25 Amiko wrote: n1k0? more like d2k2! (day 2 kill 2) I think this flip gives us some good info. For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost). (1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good) I would do so if you believe you are a potential mafia target. I'll try and do so this night (almost did it last night, but didn't feel it was necessary given probable mafia kills), but we'll see. I'd need to think about 1) and 2) after sleep. 3) | ||
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Myself (obv) OnceKing Valenius Amiko --- theDragoon Beneather | ||
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Also here's a meta nitpick You shouldn't ever say that you are "voting to pressure" or "building a case for pressure" because that defeats the purpose of it (they know that you don't really think they're scum, so they're not threatened by it, so there's no pressure). Fair. Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day. Minor correction: OnceKing stated the N1K0 case, and I started the Valenius case Day 2 (I also decided to point out N1K0 as a possible open case). Valenius started the first vote on N1K0, but the crux of the case was made by OnceKing. Now specifically on the reads: 1) OnceKing took up the case on N1K0 which I deliberately left open (had no one else raised it, I would've done so later), to see who took it up. I'm at this point 100% confident he's town. 2) Similarly, N1K0's red flip rules out Valenius, who's responses Day 2 acquitted himself well enough in my eyes, and doubled up on this with his early vote against N1K0, when implicating Beneather would be easier (and not point suspicions at N1K0). There are discrepancies in the details at times of his defense (which I have already pointed out), but mostly minor and nothing gaping. He's reading solidly town to me. 3) Reviewing Amiko's filter, I'd put him under scrutiny Day 3. His filter Day 2 reads non-committal and unhelpful, most of it rehashed points made by others before. The only worthwhile and original contribution made Day 2 was the vote analysis, which given the direction Day 2 took after I directed focus onto lurkers, was irrelevant. Now, he did voice his unease with N1K0 during the night phase, but didn't press it and instead wavered on N1K0 for awhile (was among the last to vote along with Beneather, just a ~1hr difference). Out of myself, OnceKing, and Amiko, Amiko currently reads the scummiest. 4) theDragoon's filter Day 2 also reads questionably with N1K0's flip taken into context. The post he voted on Valenius, he had a soft-defense of N1K0, ultimately wavering with a ambiguous read on him. That being said, he made this post: If N1k0 gets lynched today and flips red this makes Valenius more likely to be town because he is the first player on day 2 to vote N1k0. There’s no way a mafia Valenius would initiate the lynch on his teammate who has already gotten suspicions from everyone. If Valenius is mafia, then his vote would be cast later after he sees N1k0’s situation unsalvageable. But if N1k0 flips green, then Valenius is definitely the best lynch target on day 3. Which is solid analysis of their likely relationship, and very relevant in either scenario, and thus gives a town read to me. 5) Beneather has 1 post Day 2, which was pretty much...useless, in all honesty. It tries to paint Valenius as likely scum after N1K0, and all that. I mean, I can't say much else about it. It just reads scummy to me. The three players who should be put under scrutiny Day 3, depending on Night Kills and actions, would be Amiko, theDragoon, and Beneather for possible scum. In order, I would currently lynch: 1) Beneather 2) Amiko 3) theDragoon I would currently advocate being ready to claim blue roles Day 3 (at worst, Day 4), and for Vigi (if we have one) to shoot either tonight or Day 4 night. | ||
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Now let's lynch Beneather. ##vote Beneather | ||
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There's no reason for him to be so quiet, especially with the flip. In the event he's town, it still removes an idle town member, and paves the way for the end-game. | ||
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On February 23 2014 03:32 Valenius wrote: Looking back through his profile, Beneather seems to have been modkilled in most of the games he's played due to inactivity. sigh. It sucks for town. Can't get a good read on him and our only option is to lynch him anyways. | ||
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I'll make a last minute expansion post, but that's the gist of it. Lynch Amiko and win guys. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
If I live through the night, I'm going to laugh my ass off. I'm prime night kill territory. Either they read a player whose far more active town than I and less under suspicion (nope), or they bought the sorta soft-blue vet claim. Which was bullshit; I'm a vanilla townie. I was just gonna use it to try and dissuade night kills on me (which my day 1 scumminess was enough to do also). If I survive the night, I'll post analysis about what the opposing kill meant. Don't have the time to write four scenarios. I'm primarily writing about what happens when I die, which can't happen Day 4. First, if I die, ignore the night post with my reads. It was an attempt at scum-baiting. It will only be useful if I end up living into Day 4, as it would let me give a night-time read, so to speak, based on the kills. Next, I would say that my reads list is purposefully wrong to scumbait. Valenius is who I would currently look to lynch; him or Amiko. Valenius first priority. Why do I think Valenius is scum? Consider the Day 2 lynch. He was the first to vote for N1K0, given both of them were under suspicion then, but doesn't offer the main case. Given N1K0 didn't offer anything in defense, it makes him a free lynch. Poor mafia play, or a coordinated play by a scum Valenius and N1K0 to clear Valenius of scumminess in everyone's eyes? Now why would they do that? If one of the two needed to be lynched, the goon (non-GF mafia) should take the fall, simply to prevent the possibility of a cop check becoming relevant Day 4. And if they could use it to make Valenius seem town? Double or nothing. Additionally, it's highly likely that N1K0 was bussed, given his complete non-defense, as OnceKing noted in his last night post. However, instead of looking for a hesitant player (Beneather and Amiko, the former was just ugh, should've voted on someone else). It puts the Night 1 kill into perspective. Why kill Robik? Well 1), he had N1K0 at the top of his scum list and voted for him. But note who else is on the top: myself and Valenius. If you want to use this put me under suspicion if I live, I'm fine with it as I brought it up, but it does draw the all-important motives behind the kill. Why kill Robik? He had a good read on both scum. Why kill OnceKing? He told us to look at the voters for N1K0, and he was shaping up to be a good scum hunter. Meanwhile, he starts the first vote on N1K0 to clear himself. Now, if I survive, it depends entirely on who dies, but I assume theDragoon dies over Amiko based on the false reads I was giving leading up to here. If I don't live, he can sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. If theDragoon is scum: why kill Robik? He had a good read on N1K0, but there is nothing to implicate a second mafia. OnceKing? Given the direction we were taking is the bussing route, it could just be to remove a strong town player. However, this is a weaker motive argument than if Valenius is scum. Here, If I lived and saw Valenius die, the push onto Amiko would seem assured by his night kill. If I die, well, nothing much else can be drawn here. By sticking out on Valenius, it draws too much attention to him when N1K0 flips red, and by stating both Valenius and N1K0 are unlikely to be scum together, basically puts himself in the limelight for that statement. Very unlikely to be scum because of it. Now, if Amiko were scum. It meant both scum were voting for Cavalinho early on, instead of letting town lynch me. Bit too much of an over-commitment, but a means to get it through and viewed as a mislynch. Amiko was largely indecisive Day 2 and didn't participate. He voted late like Beneather, so that is also disconcerting. Was non-committal in his decisionmaking between the two. Don't have time to check if it was before or after I voted too to make N1K0's lynch seem inevitable. OnceKing's death makes sense as well, given he told us to look for indecisive players bussing N1K0. If I die, it could draw blame onto Amiko, but also be twisted by mafia to make it appear that Amiko is guilty. Thus, my death is unuseable for read purposes. So yeah, I'd actually say that Amiko or Valenius is scum. I can do a scenario where I'm scum too, but I don't have the time atm. And finally: I fingered him in response No context quote of the day from this thread. | ||
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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Lord Tolkien
United States12083 Posts
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