EPT1) Cavalinho
2) Lord Tolkien
3) maybe n1k0, maybe IAmRobik, maybe Valenius. Not sure.
Newbie Mini Mafia LII - Page 2
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
1) Cavalinho 2) Lord Tolkien 3) maybe n1k0, maybe IAmRobik, maybe Valenius. Not sure. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Sorry out of time, I'll respond to cavalinho later since I have to go, expect me in a few hours | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
-------------- On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote: Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole. In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing. I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself. But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia. I think your insults are not appropriate, and if we are alive tomorrow please do not continue them. We're playing a game together. It's a logic game where we don't have perfect information. It's a newbie game. I am not going to play perfectly. If I'm town and mistaken, it is your imperative to convince me that I'm wrong. What I asked you for was this: On February 18 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote: In exchange, I would appreciate if you provide comments on my two above posts. Tell us what you agree with and what you don't agree with. That's what you need to do to to help town. As I see it, you asked me to restate why I was suspicious of you. I did. My expectation is that you would go through the points, or at least try to convince me of something. Instead you ignored the content, so I guess I wasted my time. I asked you to please give analysis on my comments in the prior posts. You ignored that request, too. I'll also mention that I feel I've been pretty fair when I comment on your posts. I opened one post saying: On February 17 2014 05:48 Amiko wrote: I appreciate you explaining your reasoning somewhat I also point out that I agree with one point you make regarding red flips On February 17 2014 13:03 Amiko wrote: I won't flip red so I don't see much point in commenting on this. But, I do agree it's unlikely mafia would bus when there are probably 2-3 mafia in the game. I haven't presented everything you say as scummy. But, you haven't given me what I need to see you as town. ---- I have more to say on Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 which I will put in the next post. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
There's four things to note: 1) Currently, Cavalinho is set to be lynched. 2) Cavalinho voted for n1k0. 3) Cavalinho is the only vote on n1k0. 4) Cavalinho posted that he would not change his vote from n1k0. On February 18 2014 08:42 Cavalinho wrote: And I'm not changing my vote. I'm staying on N1k0 until the end of today. -- I read Cavalinho's vote on n1k0 as townsided (with one caveat). Basically, this post locks him into a vote on a player without any votes. If his goal is merely surviving, why not put his vote on someone who has a vote on him (Robik, Tolkien, OnceKing)? I am not surprised he didn't vote for OnceKing. His has just recently said that he agreed with all of OnceKing's first reads when OnceKing voted me, so it would be pretty questionable to challenge him now. However, I think he could have moved his vote to Tolkien and Robik without as much attention. He posted here that he had concerns about both players: On February 17 2014 14:06 Cavalinho wrote: I'm actually getting very frustrated with the way this is going, because I can't sit down and get reads from anyone since I'm defending my views every other post I make. Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik, I have people doubting the fact that I'm town since I'm focused on getting one lynch done today and looking at these other people in the mean time. (And also, Tolkein's disinterest in who gets lynched today is very concerning. I know I suggested him slightly before, but if we aren't going to go after Amiko, then I suggest either IAmRobik or Lord Tolkein.) He reasserts that the three of us are his primary scumreads again here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=441178¤tpage=9#168). So, why didn't he move his vote to someone who had some traction from another player? I wouldn't even think it's that important, but he even commits to not changing his vote on n1k0. This essentially is tying his own hands - if he's mafia, he loses the ability to move his vote to either Robik or Tolkien if they get a second vote, thereby saving himself. Well, he could still change his vote, but he'd look really scummy. So, I do think the vote on n1k0 reflects some towniness. There is one caveat I'll mention which I do think is neutral or scummy. Cavalinho has argued that the case on him is bogus. But, then he argues that n1k0 did the same thing as him, so n1k0 is scummy. If Cavlainho seeks his actions and n1k0's actions as similar, I think it's illogical to say n1k0 is scummy but he is not. In other words n1k0's actions -> similar to Cavalinho's actions n1k0's actions -> scummy to Cavalinho Cavalinho's actions -> not at all scummy to Cavalinho | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 18 2014 03:49 IAmRobik wrote: n1k0 spoke up and everyone shut down. This leads me to believe that n1k0 is town. Mafia are Tolkien and Valenius. GGWP town wins. Robik - I just figured you were joking with that post so I didn't really comment on it. On February 18 2014 11:25 Lord Tolkien wrote: Read above Amiko. :o IAmRobik's also voted for him. That came in while I was typing. It makes me feel a little better :3 I guess if Cavalinho is mafia, it's possible his vote on n1k0 wasn't as townsided if he knew a mafia partner would join his vote. But, I would tend to think two mafia wouldn't be wiling to be the only two people on someone. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think it's clear I was the most outspoken against Cavalinho. I was wrong, though I think I provided a lot of my analysis on him so I hope you understand why I reached that conclusion. I'm not certain what to read into the votes, but here's one line of analysis to offer up. I would like comments on what I write, but what I would like more is to see someone else try to give some comments on the votes. -- Tolkien seemed to read him as town in the following posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20813953 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20814229 However, he does note he is suspicious of Cavalinho in this post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821031 theDragoon stated he had a strong town read on Cavalinho here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20816693 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257 IAmRobik stated a strong town read on Cavalinho in these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819310 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819462 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671 n1k0: Reads Cavalinho as more likely to be red here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819851 Valenius: Reads Cavalinho as more town here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20820162 OnceKing I don't think he weighs in too strongly one way or the other, but does seem to lean scum here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821149 Beneather No comments re: Cavalinho --- So, theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius read Cavalinho as town/very town. So, I want to look at why they didn’t move their vote to someone else to avoid Cavalinho being lynched and if the play was consistent. I’ll mention each of the three for completeness’ sake, but I think IAmRobik is the only one that gives me ground for suspicion. theDragoon seems consistent. Valenius doesn't give me enough to make a read. theDragoon only could have saved Cavalinho by voting for n1k0. He voted for Lord Tolkein theDragoon does have a slight scumread of n1k0 here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20821257), but that’s all I see on him. I can’t say his vote was inconsistent based on this. Valenius Valenius could have saved Cavalino by voting for Tolkein or n1k0. Valenius reads Tolkein as town here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20815145 I didn’t see anything else on the two. Valenius doesn’t say any read of n1k0 either way – he does draw n1k0 into posting, at least. I can’t say much for him either. -- So, this is one I would like some responses to, particularly from IAmRobik. IAmRobik IAmRobik could have saved Cavalinho by voting for Tolkein. IAmRobik states dislike for Tolkein in the following post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819400 More importantly, he also lists Tolkein as his #2 scummiest and lists Cavalinho as his most town (after himself) in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20819671 On the one hand, IAmRobik did vote for the person he thought was the scummiest, so I think there is consistency. But, I think if I were in IAmRobik’s position, I would have considered changing my vote to Tolkein to preserve my most town and lynch my second most mafia. What do you guys think? The other thing I'll say is, tomorrow I really think we need to narrow our focus on a smaller group of people. If the highest vote count for anyone is only two people, we are too split. Mafia's votes can affect the result too much, and there's no clear direction town is taking. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I do agree with you about the vote splits, though, we can't really look at a bandwagon because of the vote splits. Your vote is the only thing that's really struck me so far, but I might try to take another approach later and see if it goes anywhere. theDragoon Happy birthday theDragoon! Let's play pin the tail on the mafia at your party :3 On February 18 2014 15:00 theDragoon wrote: @Amiko I felt like I had a better scum read on LT than I had for n1k0. I asked Cav about why he had such a strong feel for n1k0 scum but he didn't return in time to answer. At this point LT is still my top scum read but I really would've liked if Cav answered my question in time to give me some light on his thoughts on n1k0. Fair enough. I included the discussion of theDragoon and Valenius because I went through the analysis on all three, but only IAmRobik's actions struck me as questionable. If all three had votes that seemed inconsistent it might be less remarkable. Formals I don't really like the 'formal' idea from Tolkien. I am worried that it would let people direct the conversation too much. I do think we need to focus more in day 2. But, I'm not really convinced the system you suggested is the best way. I think if someone posts a strong case, town will (hopefully) examine that case and decide where they lie. Since there are still some people with very few comments, I think we should make them comment more. On that vein, n1k0 n1k0, I don't think I've pushed on your actions very much. Your posts don't give me to much to work with, which I dislike. Let's start here: 1) Given the information you have right now, who are three people you think could be potential lynches tomorrow and why? 2) I put a post above discussing Robik's vote. What do you think of my analysis on that vote? 3) You voted with me on Cavalinho, but he flipped green. I don't know your read on me currently. If you think I am town, you should conclude at least two mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). If you think I am mafia, you should conclude at least one mafia voted on someone other than Cavalinho (assuming 2-3 mafia). Where do you think mafia would tend to vote? Please remember, if your post says you read someone as very town, it may be better to wait until day 2 to post. -- Does anyone else have any analysis we can try to take from the votes? If you want to wait until day that's alright, I'll try to read and respond once I get home. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 19 2014 06:55 IAmRobik wrote: Dude...it was nearing the end of the day, but there were people around and I thought they would see the light and vote for the obvious mafia instead of the obvious town. Unfortunately, you had your blinders on because of how he focused on you to change your mind. That's not my fault. That's yours. Who did you think would switch? Where did you think they would switch to? On February 18 2014 11:07 IAmRobik wrote: I wanted to see if anyone put n1k0 in their town list after I said the above, but no one did. My opinion on n1k0 hadn't changed before of that post, nor did I think that he was town based off of the fact that no one posted after his one post. I still think he's scummy and think he's one of the better lynches for today ##vote: n1k0 What made you change your view of n1k0 as scummy and one of the better lynches of the day to an obvious mafia? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 19 2014 13:49 Lord Tolkien wrote: Regarding your analysis Amiko, you left out that I also could have saved Cavalinho as well. Basically, because of the vote split, anyone could have voted to save Cavalinho by moving their vote (including Cavalinho! Actually, I'll put a quick comment on that below). So, I only looked at the three people who I felt gave a stronger town read on Cavalinho (theDragoon, IAmRobik, and Valenius) so could reasonably be expected to try to vote to save him. For you, I felt your read was somewhat town, somewhat scum, so it wasn't inconsistent for you to vote against him. I wanted to get some reads off of Robik's response because I did think it was weird he didn't move his vote and therefore suspicious. Frankly, I figured it was just that he hadn't considered the possibility, but it was a good thing to pressure him on. That might sound like under-reading Robik, but this is why I mention Cavalinho's vote again. Cavalinho could have saved himself by moving his vote (to Tolkien) and he didn't. If I were in his position, I think I would have moved my vote to Tolkien - Cavalinho knew he was town and didn't know Tolkien's alignment. In other words, Cavalinho didn't play as he should have from his point of view, but it seems likely that's just because he didn't read how tied votes worked. -- I'll go through the rest of your post tomorrow afternoon Tolkien and try see if anything in Robik's activity brings me more to think about. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I wanted to see how people responded to my point on Robik's vote to press reads, then point to Cavalinho's play to explain why I didn't read Robik's vote as a strongly scummy. But maybe the comments would have indicated something. Writing this really reaffirms my feeling that we need to ensure we have a less split vote today. When there's only 1-2 votes on people, a single vote can spare almost anyone, and mafia probably has at least two votes to use. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Focus for Today I mentioned a few times that I thought it was best if we try to focus on a few people today to avoid vote manipulation. Currently the focus seems to be on Valenius, n1k0, and Beneather. I am pretty sure I have come out with a strong read on any of these three yet because they haven’t said as much, so I’m happy with this focus and will try to give more attention to them in this post. Loss Condition / Number of Mafia I want to point out one assumption regarding when we lose from mislynch – it is possible we survive some mislynches with successful power roles (town vigi / doctor / roleblocker). Obviously, we can’t bank on that possibility (there’s no certainty we have those roles or that they would make the right shot/save/block) and I don’t think it affects our play today, but I wanted to make the correction. Tolkien’s Post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828567) Tolkien points out the lurkers I mentioned above with the inclusion of theDragoon. I think looking at the lurkers is worthwhile, but I would mention that a mafia Tolkien has a nice justification for doing so. I know we can’t read too into Robik’s death, but I would note when he listed his reads earlier, his top mafia were basically the people Tolkien mentioned, plus Tolkien. So, a mafia Tolkien could want to steer the conversation to the people around him, particularly given that there were a few scum reads on him yesterday. On February 18 2014 02:08 IAmRobik wrote: As of right now, this is where I'm at from most town to most scummy: Me Cavalinho OnceKing TheDragoon Amiko Beneather Valenius Tolkien N1k0 Moving on to his analysis, I think I would see Valenius and Beneather as more scummy, with n1k0 as a little less scummy. It’s hard to separate them that much, but I don’t really see theDragoon as lurking, and I feel Beneather is similarly situated to Valenius- I think you cover Valenius pretty well, I don’t have much to add to that. I dislike that Beneather had some frequent posts at the beginning of the game, and has since posted very rarely. I am a little mixed about the posts here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20817073) as I discussed earlier (he says he doesn’t see Tolkien as town but only provides an example where Tolkien acts scummy). I also dislike his light response to Tolkien’s push here: On February 18 2014 08:33 Lord Tolkien wrote: @ Beneather: Can you put forward your analysis now? I do hope you understand why I was willing to vote for Amiko after last night's series of posts, but you haven't contributed your reads and analysis yet. On February 18 2014 10:45 Beneather wrote: As the deadline comes closer, the scummiest person that I have read so far is Valenius, he doesn't contribute anything to town's efforts of deciding on a scum and just posts nothing of actual value. He brings up IamRobik and votes him but does not bring any reasons except that IamRobik has a problem with Valenius' posts, which is not a solid argument. I believe that Valenius might be scum because he is just posting things that look like it has contributions but in all honesty have no value. They are just restating the post and not providing any information and also has a lot of side tracking in it. As far as right now I believe that Valenius is mafia. A lot of his posts are just him defending himself but not bring any value to the discussion. That seems very scummy, just showing up for the occasional defending but then disappear before attracting too much attention and just sit back and watch town try to lynch each other. ##VOTE Valenius It’s not that I necessarily disagree with Beneather, it’s just, I wish he had posted more reads on other players, too. I thought it was weird that Beneather hadn’t even commented on Cavalinho. So, as to Tolkien’s discussion of these players, I think yes, Valenius looks scummy, but I do want to mention that caveat that I see Beneather somewhat similarly. Tolkien puts forward a more directed case on Valenius in the next post (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20828667). I agree with a few things Tolkien raises about OnceKing. For one, I did think OnceKing might be a night target since a few people had pointed to him as a town read (myself included). I don’t know if they were trying to avoid a medic save or not, but for now I still feel okay about my read on OnceKing (more town than scum). I was a little surprised at the night kill on IAmRobik because I was moving to pressure him, but I don’t think I can read much into that. Aside – Beneather’s & Valenius Votes I spent a little while looking at Beneather and Valenius’ votes but I couldn’t get anything I felt was meaningful out of them. I do want to note, though, theDragoon raised Beneather and Valenius as a possible mafia team. On February 20 2014 02:37 theDragoon wrote: @OnceKing On my previous post I said I don't have a strong scum read on Beneather but if Valenius flips red I started thinking about his most likely partners and Beneather looks to be the most logical choice. If you read through Val's filter, a lot of it his him asking Robik why he thinks Val is scummy. Val also voted for Robik because he pretty much didn't like Robik's read on him. However, Val never mentions Beneather at all despite Beneather actually having a solid case, and an actual vote on him. I was a bit hesitant to make this connection because I thought if they were mafia teammates then Beneather wouldn't have such a solid case against his partner. So the question is, why did Val OMGUS Robik, who didn't have a solid case against him and ignored the only guy with a real case on him with Beneather? My guess is they planned this to keep themselves apart, to eliminate any possible connections between each other. Beneather knows that Val won't get lynched since he was mainly off town's radar and votes for him so that it's less likely that we make the connection between the two. Another thing to note is that neither of the two jumped on any of the possible bandwagons on day 1: Cavalinho, Lord Tolkien, and N1k0. Again, this supports the idea of them trying to distance themselves away from each other, and with the lack of a bandwagon it makes it easy for them to just watch town go at each other. The three way tie between Cavalinho, LT and N1k0 was also in their favor since any one of the three being lynched results in a mislynch for us. I don’t have any strong confidence that they are a team, but I do agree that Beneather’s vote on Valenius doesn’t do anything to convince me they aren’t same-aligned. Valenius’ comment on my Analysis re: Cavalinho & Robik Valenius argues here that I included a post from IAmRobik and misrepresent it as saying IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town: On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: Amiko In your post listing off posts where IAmRobik read Cavalinho as town, you’ve included one where he agrees with your analysis of Cavalinho, early-ish in Day 1. Your reads from that post are that Cavalinho was scummy. Did you include this post in the hopes no one would read it, and to pad out your post ? What’s your reason for lying about the content of that post? I think Valenius misread the IAmRobik post he is referring to. There’s two parts of IAmRobik’s post, I think Valenius read the second without putting it in context. On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: I kinda like theDragoon's posts in the middle of page 7 and I am willing to remove him from my lynch list for today. While I don't agree w/ him on the conclusion regarding Amiko, I am 100% in agreement with the conclusion and case that he laid out with regards to Cavalinho being town On February 18 2014 01:06 IAmRobik wrote: This is an excellent analysis post from Amiko and totally makes sense from his perspective. To answer his question regarding my lack of follow up, I don't know that OnceKing responded, but I really didn't care too much. I figured I should null read everyone and just assume that both mafia/town would have gotten some guidance from their coach if their post sounds too good: Valenius’ implication that I saw Cavalinho as scum, IAmRobik is saying he agrees with me, therefore he thought IAmRobik was scum. But, if you read the post in full (the bolded, 100% part, lol) I think it is obvious IAmRobik saw Cavalinho as town so my post wasn’t misrepresenting him. I have more to say on these posts and will put it up this PM. I accidentally deleted a post earlier so I am working back through my thoughts. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I have comments on valenius & n1k0, I see they have some recent posts so I'll try to put some things in on those before throwing in my vote | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Two quick questions that are more technical rather than game talk: 1) Is there any way to have a filter with two people in it? Like, if I want to see player A and B speaking in order but not the rest of the comments in between? 2) Is there an easier way to post quotes than to click quote on each post and copy and paste the relevant parts? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 20 2014 05:51 Valenius wrote: First point: Wtf does OMGUS'ing mean? I had to look this up earlier - http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Oh_My_God_You_Suck Basically voting for one person because they voted for you. I read through Valenius' explanation of his vote on IAmRobik and I think it makes a little sense from his point of view. I don't know, I guess I saw Robik's as trying to get leads by calling out XYZ as scummy or towny just to see how people responded. For my part I think I mostly wrote those posts off because they seemed ambiguous or just joking around. I can imagine that Valenius would feel that these were scum (as I think Tolkien felt with OnceKing and I felt with Cavalinho). So, I don't put too much into Valenius' vote on IAmRobik. Valenius' read of theDragoon as very towny (here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101 and here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833346) seem a little odd because a few people saw Cavalinho as town -- on n1k0 I do feel that n1k0 is backpacking on other people's posts. I somehow missed that he essentially repeated my question to Robik, though (which OnceKing points out). I could see that as pressing someone to answer something they didn't answer previously, but I think I would have written it more like "what abc is asking is xyz". -- I am still unsure about this so I want to have a few questions for Beneather to answer if/when he shows up. @Beneather: I asked this one yesterday which I don't think he answered (in the one post he made since then). On February 18 2014 06:07 Amiko wrote: I see this post as more noncommittal than scummy. I at least want to see Beneather commit more. Beneather, if you don’t think Tolkien is scum, is there anything you see as weighing against him as town? Here are three questions I want to start with: 1) Would you support a vote on n1k0 today? 2) Would you support a vote on Valenius todday? 3) What is your current read on Tolkien? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Valenius' read of theDragoon as very towny (here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833101 and here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20833346) seem a little odd because a few people saw Cavalinho as town, so I'm not sure why he highlights theDragoon for reading Cavalinho as town. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 21 2014 02:09 Valenius wrote: Amiko, whos your most likely vote target for today? I still feel it’s very tough to pick between n1k0, Beneather, and Valenius. I have been hoping that one of the three would put up something that swayed me one way or another but it hasn’t happened. At this point, though, I think it’s important that I try to put up a vote because it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect to get anything that will give me a strong read. I don’t expect Beneather to respond in a meaningful way. If Beneather is mafia, there is no real pressure on him to post something. A few people have given him soft town read, but more importantly the votes have come in on someone else (n1k0). We can point to Beneather’s silence and ask questions to the air, but if it’s not enough to convince us to vote on him, it won’t matter to him. If Beneather is town, I don’t feel his silence is helpful to us. Since he voted to lynch Valenius day 1, I feel he has an obligation to give comments on Valenius’ day 2 comments. Particularly so when Valenius voted for him day 2. This makes me disbelieve the possibility he is a lurking town and prefer the conclusion he is idle town or mafia. In either case, I don’t expect to get anything from him that is likely to give me good reads. So, I feel a vote on Beneather is not that well founded (because of his inactivity) and unlikely to give much information (based on considering him mafia or idle town). So, I think I am deciding between n1k0 and Valentius. n1k0 and Valenius are both responding to posts and pressure, but I am not getting a strong read from either one. Generally, Valenius is more offensive, n1k0 more defensive. I understand feeling less confident in reads after day1 (since mine were wrong as well), but I feel if I were town in n1k0’s situation I would try to more actively make a case who I felt was mafia if only because I knew myself to be town. I think the same thing comes up here from n1k0- On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I get that this is asking questions, and that’s nice. But I feel that if you are town and you feel like the vote is going to land on you, you should be giving our reads and thoughts on the premise that town will want to consider them after you flip. At least, I think that’s what prompted me to start volunteering a lot more of my thoughts day 1. (To be fair, I don’t think Cavalinho really did that day 1, but I feel like n1k0’s vote has more momentum than his) OK I JUST REFRESHED AND SAW BENEATHER POSTED SO IM GONNA READ THAT :X | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On February 21 2014 06:32 Valenius wrote: Quick correction: I haven't voted for Beneather. My vote is on n1k0. I listed Beneather as one of my softer mafia reads. You're right, sorry about that. Also I think you must read much faster than me :o -- My last post was basically going to end that I conclude it's best to vote on n1k0, but I saw Beneather posted so wanted to see if I could pull anything from it. I don't, really. Beneather's post doesn't do much to change what I typed except (to me) it makes it less likely he is idle town. I don't find his post above does much of anything for my reads for or against him. On February 21 2014 05:18 N1k0 wrote: Right now i'm the likely candidate to be lynched, what do you guys think each possible flip means? I think this is a good question, but I think I should not respond until just before night 2. I am going to certainly going to try to look at vote & flips during night2, but I think your flip will have more of a bearing on who I see as town or scum tomorrow and I don't want to point to that part of the analysis just yet. (If I forget someone please poke me to remind me to post those thoughts during n2) Based on the above post and thoughts now, my preference for today's lynch is n1k0, then beneather. I will be back before the votes and probably here as the clock ticks down. ##Vote: n1k0 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I just want to note (again) I would like to encourage analysis in the night phase if we are still going, but if people would prefer it waits until day that is okay with me. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I think this flip gives us some good info. For the moment these are the questions I am thinking about. We can talk about them d2 if you guys prefer (or maybe put it in a last minute nightpost). (1) Is there any reason why n1k0 didn't try claiming a town role to try to save himself? (2) Do you think it is more likely mafia joined the vote on n1k0 (all but theDragoon) or voted Valenius (theDragoon) (3) How good does this feel (spoiler: really good) | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
(1) I feel confident Valenius is town Whether there are two or three mafia in the game, I feel it is highly unlikely they would begin day 2 by pressuring their mafia teammate n1k0. On this basis, I now feel very good about Valenius because I feel he opened the case against n1k0 and placed his vote on n1k0. This is particularly good because Valenius presented as less towny (at least to me) and among my lynch candidates going into d2, so having him now present as very likely town puts us in a good position. To explain this reasoning more in depth: If there are three mafia, they only needed to get one mislynch to almost certainly secure a win. In this case, I don’t think bussing n1k0 would make sense. Looking back at the first posts of the day, I think early pressure was building on Valenius. If Valenius is town (as I currently feel) then I feel that would have been the seemingly most obvious target for a mislynch. In other words, I don’t feel mafia would sacrifice n1k0 if they could win by only convincing one person. If there are two mafia, I still feel they would not try to push a vote on n1k0. It seems too risky with the potential of town power roles alive, and it gives up two votes to manipulate when town appeared undecided day 1. Thus, I do not think a mafia Valenius would start pressure on mafia n1k0. (2) I am pretty confident there are two mafia in the game (n1k0 + one other person) I agree with Valenius’ posts here: On February 21 2014 16:45 Valenius wrote: Feels good to lower mafia to one. I dont believe theres any possibility of 3, theyd have played out the theory I posted. On February 21 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote:If it gets to the end of the day and the votes stay the same; 3 mafia moving their votes to me gets me lynched. theDragoon, who I still have a town read on has his vote on me, which allows for an additional 3 votes, leading to a 4-vote majority. I die, mafia wins, gg. I do have one thing to add to that, though. I agree with OnceKing as to my question (why didn’t n1k0 fakeclaim a town role) – I think he gave up. I feel like even if he ended up getting lynched, he may have had a better shot at surviving if he claimed a town role once momentum started to build on him. If he’s mafia he doesn’t know what roles town has, so it’s possible if he outed as a role no one would have existed to counterclaim him. I mean, it’d look really scummy when he was still alive and we’d probably kill him d3, but I feel like that would have a mafia desperation/gamble play. I bring this up here because again, it makes me think this game only has 2 mafia. With 3 mafia that move (which I see as a desperation play) might have been more realistic because swinging just one vote on n1k0 could have led to a win. (3) I think there is probably a mafia vote among the votes for n1k0 I’m not as confident on this conclusion than my others, but I still feel pretty good about it- N1k0 pulled five of the seven votes yesterday. Working on the belief there is only one mafia left, I don’t feel a mafia theDragoon would have think he could sway enough town to Valenius to justify keeping his vote there. Moreover, I think momentum built behind n1k0 early enough that mafia could have joined the vote for him. Although I am among the later votes on n1k0 I think looking at the later votes is worthwhile. I would summarize my reasoning as: (1) I was not confident between Valenius /nik0/Beneather and (2) I felt voting earlier took pressure off Beneather when we needed more info from him. I’m fine with being re-scrutinized d3 but if you also Beneather is high on your scumlist (as I do, see below) realize that we get so little out of him there should be some push on him earlier. That provides some of the justification for this one: (4) Right now Beneather is my top vote followed by theDragoon Going into day 3 my #1 scumread is Beneather. First, I don’t think Beneather’s vote on n1k0 yesterday night makes him less scummy because it came late enough it was unlikely to swing the vote. Moreover, as noted, I feel there is probably a mafia among the n1k0 votes. Second, both times Beneather came into the game he raised a case on Valenius. Suspecting n1k0 doesn’t strike me as bad (I felt Valenius was potentially scummy until n1k0’s flip) but here’s my problems: (1) I don’t think he adequately goes after other players. I pushed him on Tolkien d1 (d1 he said townread Tolkien but only indicated one thing by Tolkien he scumread). (2) If the scumteam is Beneather + n1k0, I think their best target to mislynch is [b]Valenius[b]. I saw those three as the candidates for today, so if that’s the team it makes sense for him to keep pushing Valenius. Third, Beneather’s posts seem too conclusive to me. I think most of us post cases as a way to get information push it forward with new thoughts as we go (OnceKing on me, me on Cavalinho, Tolkien on OnceKing, OnceKing on Valenius, Valenius on n1k0). I see Beneather’s posts as votes with a justification. I think this is a little more scummy because they comes late in the day. To be fair, theDragoon also voted on Valenius. theDragoon is currently my second potential scum on the grounds I don’t read him as towny as the others and keeping his vote on Valenius could reflect an attempt to push the vote onto him. I just think Beneather did so more directly and his playstyle seems wrong to me. | ||
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