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Just to further develop the case on Jonny because I just noticed this:
On January 22 2014 02:44 Balla24 wrote:
I'd lynch zarepath atm, the main contradiction in his VE case that I think you are pointing out rayn is really really bad, and he never really responds to that.
Want to hear more from crossfire and artanis though.
Here is the chronology:
Zarepath has 3 votes on him (suki, Barristan, rayn).
Balla posts the above quote, saying he would lynch zarepath.
Jonny posts that he still thinks Balla is scum
Jonny posts his read on Zarepath that he thinks Zarepath is genuine.
Jonny's next four posts then ramp up suspicion until he finally votes Zarepath.
So Jonny goes from 'feels town' to 'super scummy' on Zare, when his top scum read has already said he'd lynch Zare, and Jonny doesn't even consider it.
Anyways, I'll start looking at the other players now but I don't see how we can not lynch Jonny today. Jonny's decision to exit the thread for the rest of the day feels like he doesn't want to post any reads which may make things harder for his remaining scum buddy.
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No, I just don't care anymore. I get called scum for finding scum.
Figure it yourself. Because your one read so far is me and I'm town.
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You know the most frustrating thing in all of this is that Rayn claimed to make some big deal about balla. When in truth no matter who rayn picked to bus yesterday after zareph's post was going to be lynched. When he wanted kush, I said that's fine because I think kush/balla easy scum team, but I'd prefer to lynch balla.
And it is frustrating when half the game didn't even play the first day.
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Aww boo hoo. I've had a bandwagon on me in almost every single game I've ever played as town, and you know how many times I was lynched? 0.
If you quit when someone calls you scum, then maybe mafia isn't the game for you. If you're not scum, you still have 40+ hours to convince everyone.
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Hey Jonny.
Take a look at this game: Newbie Mini Mafia XVII
In this game, I'm town, and I made the exact wrong moves in Day 1 and was the agreed upon FOR SURE lynch on Day 2 by everyone in town. Like, I was absolutely screwed. And so I sent a SOS pm to Blazinghand because I had no idea what to do. And here is his response:
+ Show Spoiler +So, first off, it's night-time. If you're gonna get lynched, it's not for another 72 hours. Here's what you gotta do in order to A) not get lynched and B) help town.' First, we know you're not gonna get shot tonight (unless you're blue) so we don't need to worry about that. Imagine you're looking at someone and they're super scummy. You plan to spend the next 72 hours trying to lynch them. Well, if they just argue with you, yeah, okay, maybe that would convince you. But what would convince you MORE? Well, if they found scum on their own! What I recommend you do is just go completely quiet between now and daybreak. Take a look at everyone's filter. Try to find the scum. If you get lynched, they'll see you're a townie, and read your cases, knowing they were honest! So do some serious research. Make a post that says something like this: 1. I'm making this post before daybreak, just in case I get shot (unlikely). 2. I think X is scum. (include long analysis of X, and why they're scum). 3. I get that you think I'm scummy, and I see that Y and Z have made cases against me. I'll do my best to address them here. 4. I think we can agree that even though I might be a bit scummy, my stuff makes sense from a town PoV, and X's stuff is clearly scum. Basically, the only way to save yourself and make this next 72 hours helpful, is to find scum. If you can find scum, town will lynch scum instead of you. No matter how strong the case against you seems to be, it's false-- you're town. There's a real scum player out there, and if you find him and make a case against him, it will be stronger than the case against you, because he has scumslips, actions that only make sense from the scum perspective, etc. It's a lot of work, but it can be worth it. and worse case scenario, if they lynch you, they'll be "oh she was town! well now her case sounds better, let's talk about that" and catch the scum tomorrow. whatever you do, don't let town waste a whole day not talking about anything and silently sheeping you. Fight hard, and find scum. Force scum to come out of their shells and argue, to produce evidence for you and others to find. -Blazinghand Original Message From suki:
Hey blazinghand, just selected your name randomly out of the coaches in the OP for Mafia XVII.
Due to bad reads and bad luck I've gotten myself in a situation where I am pretty sure I am gonna get mislynched. The best analysts we have are both pretty sure I'm scum.
I'm at a loss for what to do because I don't have any good reads. The last remaining mafia seems to have gone for a really aggressive bussing strategy to gain crazy townie cred, and I have no good reads on anyone.
My question is, is there anything I can do to help town at all? Since I have pretty much no credibility at this point maybe I should just stay quiet until the end? I really don't know T__T;;
Thank you,
suki
I read this and took it to heart. And I played my goddamn brains out. And you know what? I kept making shit reads and kept lynching townies, every single night. And it was god awful, but town didn't lynch me. I survived until LYLO, because I wanted to win and I didn't care if people were wrong about me because it's not their fault. And you know what? It's probably going to be my favourite mafia game for a really long time because that feeling of going against all odds and weathering that storm is the best feeling, even though town lost at the very end (thanks Crossfire :p).
I'm saying this as a friend, play to fucking win. If you're town, you can get mislynched today and have bitter feelings for the rest of your life about how everyone in this game sucked, or you can come back and do your best and feel good about yourself at the end of the day and maybe help everybody pull it together and win.
And if you're scum well just keep lurking cuz it's probably in your best interest not to make things any harder for your partner.
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Also may I note that in that game, I managed to temporarily convince people not to mislynch me, and pretty much single-handedly lead the mislynch onto trackdoor on Day 2. Like. You should be so lucky that you were right about at least one of your reads. I was wrong every single time.
So if you're really town, stop acting like a spoiled kid cuz you never really had it bad.
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On January 23 2014 12:52 DarthPunk wrote:
Shush, you don't get to your own game!
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Hm, how likely would it be that mafia would shoot rayn if they did not know if there was a doctor or not?
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The odds say they should probably shoot him?
There are only 2 different possible combinations of mafia members (for shorthand, I will use Goon, GodFather, Roleblocker).
There's either GGR or GFR. Out of the 8 possible setups, GGR and GFR both show up 4 times.
GGR:
8x VT, 1x Parity Cop, 1x Named VT
8x VT, 1x Doc, 1x Named VT
7x VT, 1x Parity Cop, 2x Named VT
7x VT, 1x Doc, 2x Named VT
GFR:
8x VT, 1x Parity Cop, 1x Doc
8x VT, 2x Named VT
7x VT, 1x Parity Cop, 1x Doc, 1x Named VT
7x VT, 3x Named VT
So presuming that scum believe both of the claims that were still in effect by the end of the night, they had either a 50/50 shot of there not being a doc if their team is GFR, or 100% if their team is GGR. Would they shoot with 50/50? I dunno, but it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility.
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Yeah, that's the math I did. Chances are we don't have a doctor 
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I thought maybe there was a scenario where a Blue VT could be lying in a set-up where mafia know whether there is a doctor is not.
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On January 23 2014 10:39 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 10:38 suki wrote:
If he thinks I'm town and he believes me, then there isn't any reason to continue to pressure me. I agree with his logic there and the time and effort is better spent going after his scum reads. But why did he ask the question if he doesn't find you suspicious? If he does, then a suspicious answer should result in him pressuring you further. If he doesn't, then even bringing up the question doesn't make sense.
Hm. I've done some thinking. I think Barristan would still pressure me even if he was leaning town on me. Also I find it likely that he would have pressed me farther if my answer was suspicious but it seems like he accepted my answer as okay.
I'm leaning town on Barristan, I liked his answer to my question and nothing stands out to me in his filter.
Taking my time with reading other people.
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Artanis, do you have any ideas who the third scum is? I notice you asking a lot of questions but haven't posted any of your ideas recently.
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On January 23 2014 11:16 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2014 11:09 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 23 2014 03:39 bumatlarge wrote:
Honestly I choose not to interact with because it would be awkward after coaching him. So there is something to what you are reading into. I don't like to lynch/kill new players early to let them play the game. I don't care about vets or myself going in blind since we will come back eventually. New players can easily be discouraged if they are lynched early.
That's about the only reason you are finding a connection. I'm bumatlarge, you don't think I know how to ineract with my teammates when I'm scum? On January 23 2014 10:13 bumatlarge wrote:You people are really overestimating my scum game. I think the connection between myself and artanis is null. I don't think Artanis would defend me if we were both scum, he knows I'm volatile. Also, while we both suspected rayn for a time and we both changed that opinion, that is not something that scum do. Based on that alone, one of us being scum would make sense, because tracing a townie's line of thought is fairly scummy, but I don't believe Artanis and I were ever pushing people for the same reasons, including kush, but that's what I want to clarify. Artanis, could you clarify your reasons for pushing kush? Do you know his meta? I thought his connection to balla was incriminating, and I am also not convinced by the way he claimed VT. But everything else from him has been borderline. I suggest you build a case, because I don't have a town read on you. On January 22 2014 07:34 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Where is everyone? Barristan, why aren't you engaging in conversation? It's probably between Kush and Bum today. Who do you think is scummier and why? What did you mean by this? It's the only time you mention me without calling me town... So which is it bum? Are we overestimating or underestimating your scum game?  When you find out I'm town by the end of this game, please don't take it out on me. It's your own fault.
I'm not that kind of player. You're the only one who brought ill feelings from past games into this one.
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Actually Artanis, back before the drama of Day 1 we had a conversation about bum:
On January 22 2014 05:09 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Thrawn, your case is partially built on Kush not being scum. Has your read on him changed? Show nested quote +On January 22 2014 05:03 suki wrote:
Right now bum looks really bad for pushing such a shitty case on VE, then asking VE questions and when those questions are not answered satisfyingly.... drops the case because nobody's listening to him. The town explanation is he's just frustrated townie not willing to waste any more time.. but if he is, who is more suspicious to him? Why drop your case on your top scum read who hasn't answered any of your questions, when you don't have anyone else who reads scummy to you? Hmm. I'm going to have to reread Bum's filter with this in mind. The story of frustrated town might make too much sense to me because it's happened to me before. Perhaps I'll see what you see. Will be back in an hour to do so.
You never actually came back and posted your thoughts on Bum. Can you also post your thoughts on Bum in addition to your scumread(s)?
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On January 23 2014 13:27 bumatlarge wrote:Yeah, that's the math I did. Chances are we don't have a doctor
Hm.. so from Barristan's post it's more likely that the setup is GGR since scum would 100% know town doesn't have a doctor, whereas in the other setup mafia may have decided to go with a safer target just in case there was a doctor.
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On January 23 2014 12:05 JonnyLaw wrote:
No, I just don't care anymore. I get called scum for finding scum.
Figure it yourself. Because your one read so far is me and I'm town.
Bussing exists
Don't let emotion guide you too much, or Chezinu will svengali u hard
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Actually bum, out of curiosity could you let me know what your theory on WileE was, even though it's not valid anymore?
On January 23 2014 04:04 bumatlarge wrote:
WileSlam I had a stupid reason, but he actually claimed green, which debunks it.
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EPT
