On May 24 2014 05:55 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2014 05:52 Hapahauli wrote:On May 24 2014 05:44 marvellosity wrote:On May 24 2014 05:43 austinmcc wrote:On May 24 2014 05:41 marvellosity wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On May 24 2014 03:25 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2014 05:00 ShiaoPi wrote:VOTE COUNT: mtamburini (8): Tehpoofter, Hapahauli, Alakaslam, mattisfoolish, Xatalos, Cavalinho, Holyflare, thrawn2112, BlueyD, marvellosity, jampidampi, 27ninjabunnies, bkqyrldp, austinmcc, layabout, Steveling, Meapak_Ziphh Valenius (2): Meapak_Ziphh, Hapahauli, Tehpoofter, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, Xatalos, kitaman27, sqrtofneg1 geript (0): Holyflare, StevelingKoshi (0): ValeniusSteveling (0): Holyflare, Cavalinho, geriptAlakaslam (0): kushm4sta, kushm4staHapahauli (0): kushm4staYell0w (1): Tehpoofter, Tehpoofter, BlueyDXatalos (0): jampidampi, marvellosity, Koshi, thrawn2112, kushm4stajampidampi (0): sqrtofneg1, Xatalos, Xatalos27ninjabunnies (1): Cephiro sqrtofneg1 (0): kitaman27bkqyrldp (0): marvellosityOdinOfPergo (13): Blazinghand, Steveling, Xatalos, Yell0w, Alakaslam, Alakaslam, kushm4sta, Xatalos, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, Hapahauli, thrawn2112, bkqyrldp, Cavalinho, Valenius, Holyflare Holyflare (1): WaveofShadow, Xatalos, Steveling, Steveling, sqrtofneg1WaveofShadow (0): kitaman27, bkqyrldpBlazinghand (1): Tehpoofter, OdinofPergo, geript, marvellosity, geript thrawn2112 (0): 27ninjabunniesmarvellosity (0): kushm4stalayabout (1): jampidampi, Koshi, OnceKing, marvellosity, ritoky ritoky (0): austinmcc, layaboutBlueyD (0): kitaman27Tehpoofter (1): mtamburini Not voting (2): MysterMeat1, OdinofPergo OdinOfPergo was lynched with 13 votes!
I'm going to use the above votecount to structure my thoughts. By looking at the votes, we can get a better idea about the motivations of certain players, and it can help identify certain mafia tells that might be present in a multi-faction game. I'm dividing posters into 3 categories: - People off of the main wagons
- People who voted Odin
- People who voted Tambo
People off of the main wagons:There's a good chance that certain mafia/faction members will want to "blend-in" and "hide", and one very instinctual way of doing that is to avoid the main course of discussion, take "non-controversial" stances, and avoid contributing by pursuing/voting someone who is not being talked about and has very little chance of getting lynched. In this category of players, we have: mtamburini rikoty geript Cephiro Tehpoofter kitaman sqrtofneg1 WaveofShadow I'm going to start with Mafia Reads, move to Null Reads, and then to Townies: Mtamburini+ Show Spoiler +Mtamburini's vote looks extremely bad by all accounts. On May 23 2014 03:45 mtamburini wrote:I Vote:: tehpoofterwhy? No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS harharharhar Tehpoofter had virtually no chance of getting lynched yesterday, and this is the definition of a wasted vote by all accounts. His reasoning for placing his vote where it was is also pretty suspect: why?
No one else has and I can be the first one to say in post game if he is scum to say I TOLD YOU SO MOFOS On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null.... On May 23 2014 04:59 mtamburini wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2014 04:38 Holyflare wrote:On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:On May 23 2014 04:26 Xatalos wrote:
What was that vote, mtamburini...? I have a lot of reading to catch up on so if I had to found scum based on the first 45 pages of this game I probably couldnt do so. poofter was in my initial scum reads moving towards null. Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear. As the days go on my game will improve. With regards to my interactions with people Ive played with before I know I have a better chance of getting a read off them then smoeone I do not know so I will look at them first before anyone else. hey i thought after your long post the ONLY read you had was that steveling was scummy/null to you and that was it? where did this first 45 page poofter read come from? tehpoofter uses sarcasm as either allignment but you can usually tell by the tone of his sarcasm what allignement he is. From his initial posts Im reading the sarcasm as more scummy then towny All of this is really strange. The first two quotes can be barely considered reads. The 3rd quote is extremely manufactured and makes very little sense - tambo had never mentioned tehpoofters "sarcasm" all game, and then it shows up in a very mystical and unexplained read (what is the difference between town/mafia sarcasm?). Quote #2 is additionally strange - he voted a read (tehpoofter) that he felt was moving from Scummy to Null. Not only is this really weak, but he did so over Bunnies, who he's been seemingly tunneling most of the game, and has explicitly called her a strong scum-read in earlier posts. His rationale for not voting Bunnies is weak and makes little sense: On May 23 2014 04:36 mtamburini wrote:... Im not going to vote on bunnies because I think she might be town and just needs some time to cool off and get her head in gear. ... To understand why this makes so little sense, read this post... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?page=45#896...then read page 3 of his filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/440546-golden-sun-the-lost-age-mafia-djinn-edition?user=mtamburini&page=3He doesn't vote a scumread because he believes that scumread could be town, but then votes tehpoofter (his "scummy moving to null" read) because... man I don't even know. His deadline behavior is pretty strange. After he comes back a couple of hours before lynch deadline, he quickly establishes a town-read on Odin... On May 23 2014 03:03 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Okay, looking at Odin's filter myself, I think he's just a vanilla townie.
Scum would try harder to get out of it. As a vanilla townie, he wouldn't care. On May 23 2014 03:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
I recommend lynching Val.
Odin may seem scum, but I think he's VT. It's a very poorly explained town-read. His point about "Odin not trying to get out of the lynch" doesn't make much sense either, since Odin had stated earlier he'd be gone until the deadline. Futhermore, Odin was under very little pressure at the time he said that. It seems more like he's trying to justify not voting for Odin as opposed to being sincere with his read. Sqrt then pops down a very "clean" vote on Valenius... ... then POOF! He's gone for the last two hours of shenanigans! Despite having a town read on Odin, he never seems to try and act on it to prevent it. He disappears... then instantly reappears at lynch deadline! This is a really suspicious 2 hours of absence. Another *really* odd thing about his filter is how many town reads he gives out over the course of the game. He gives them out like candy, is seemingly confident in a lot of them, and... yeah. I'm not sure if this is a mafia tell in this particular setup, but it's something that definetely caught my eye on a readthrough. Given that Cephiro was AFK for the last half of the day, it's hard for me to get an accurate read on him. However the first half of his day 1 play seems like it would come from some sort of faction.
I won't talk much about the contents of his big case. What's more important is that he didn't talk about anything other than his case on bunnies at all. This lines up with the idea of a faction wanting to "hunt" for players, but not necessarily interested in contributing to town discussion.
Again, hard to make a complete read on him due to him being AFK for a while, but his play objectively fits pretty well with how I'd think a faction member hunting other faction members would approach this game: find a target, push him/her, and really not contribute to town discussion otherwise. Hard to say. His play is pretty short and straightforward. He believed layabout was scum, voted him, and then had to step out: On May 22 2014 19:48 ritoky wrote:
Well, I am going to sleep and I am not sure if I will make it back before the deadline.
For me it's between WOS and layabout.
WOS contributes and I basically don't like much of anything he says.
Layabout doesn't contribute, and when he does its mostly shit filling.
Gonna go with layabout. ##vote layabout Nothing in his filter that screams his alignment one way or the other. Well he replaced out. This makes a lot of his lack of interest and activity in the latter half of the game pretty explainable. I wasn't altogether please with his play (especially his stuff on Holyflare), but it's better not to make judgements about an incomplete filter and let his replacement talk some. I believe to be town. Geript is extremely active and emotional this game. His tunnels seem very genuine, and while he ended up on BlazingHand, he definitely was very involved in the chaos and discussion of the day. He's drawn a ton of attention to himself, and really isn't someone I'm concerned about. Tehpoofter I'm less sure about, but I think he's town. He's playing extraordinarily different from his scum-game in You Only Shoot Once, and was fairly active/involved early on. He was afk for the last ~24 hours of the day (not changing his vote or posting at all), which leads me to believe his vote being off of one of the main wagons is a null-tell. Based on his early day behavior, I give him a moderate town read, with the expectation that he continues that in future days. That's Hapa's voting analysis thingy Hapa I don't think Cephiro is mafia atm. His whole bunnies thing was sooo convoluted. And I've seen him all over the place like that as town before. I remember catching him in LXII and his posts were much clearer. So yeah. sqrt I think I agree on, the Odin townread does kinda reek of TMI. On May 24 2014 05:21 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Woah, those kills are interesting.
Filter dive time. On May 24 2014 05:30 sqrtofneg1 wrote:I think koshi's partner/teammate in his faction is jampi. On May 22 2014 19:00 Koshi wrote:On May 22 2014 18:46 ritoky wrote:
but if you post 10x in a thread and all of it is shit, that's a 100% shit rate, which makes you a shitter in my mind at least. guess it's more of a % useful material thing for me.
Since it seems like there is only 3 of us here, let's have a bit of a chat.
@Marv/geript
I am a little bit hung up on an odd interaction in the early game, that was part of the original reads I gave when I called MZ my top town. It was when he noticed Jampidampi supporting the people he would never lynch on day 1. I was actually a bit wrong on that when I went back and looked at it again. 27ninjabunnies was the one who said it, and she actually said "there is no way I would lynch meapak this game". Which meapak felt was very strange and then jampidampi hopped in to defend bunnies against that and a couple other accusations headed her way at the time.
What do you think of that interaction, because to me it seems very odd, or if you don't particularly think anything of it what do you think about those 3 people?
I am rereading that and to me it seems jampidampi started with questioning MZ about bunnies. MZ replies that bunnies made an "unguarded" comment and is likely town. jampidampi pressures MZ and is giving bunnies a scumread for being overly defensive. He is telling MZ that the way MZ clears Bunnies is wrong and that he should revisit that read. MZ doesn't do that and jampi gives MZ a light scumread for it. This is pretty towny from Jampi tbh. quotes: ↓ + Show Spoiler +On May 21 2014 07:40 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 07:08 jampidampi wrote:
Meapak earlier you were interested in 27ninjabunnies, did you gather anything from my conversation with her? If you had to bet on her alignment, what would you guess? ehhhh I understand the part about gut reads, I've had them myself and I know how frustrating it is to try and explain them. I give her (is ninja a her?) a pass for now because her posts seem very unguarded and often early game is when scum are most uptight. Unguarded? To me it seems that she is very defensive here: Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:45 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:39 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:27 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:21 27ninjabunnies wrote:
--
It's also obvious who are going to jump out in the front and try and lead town one way or another. We definitely have a mafia or two in the first couple of pages.
You sound confident, enough that I think you have your eye on someone already. Care to share as to who it may be? I may have my eye on a few people. From my experience, there are two type of mafia people: the lurkers, and the ones who like to come out first day and take control of town. I'm focusing on the latter because they are the ones to likely talk more, you can easily find their slips (if any), and they are also more likely to last longer than the lurker mafia. Why are you avoiding my question? I asked you to name your suspicions, but instead you give an indefinite answear and then babble on about something that could reasonably be figured out from your earlier post. If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why. But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game. If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched. So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk. She has "a pretty damn good reason" to avoid my question, yet she anwears it. Earlier she said that "we definitely have a mafia or two" but now they are not necessarily scum. Brining out the newbie card, defending accusations that don't exist. I would definitely not call this post unguarded. Based on this I wouldn't clear bunnies so easily, but now you're interesting. What makes you think she was "unguarded" in this post? + Show Spoiler +For the annoyed thing, if she was slightly pissed at me, I would understand this kind of backlash. On May 21 2014 07:56 jampidampi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 21 2014 07:44 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 07:40 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 07:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On May 21 2014 07:08 jampidampi wrote:
Meapak earlier you were interested in 27ninjabunnies, did you gather anything from my conversation with her? If you had to bet on her alignment, what would you guess? ehhhh I understand the part about gut reads, I've had them myself and I know how frustrating it is to try and explain them. I give her (is ninja a her?) a pass for now because her posts seem very unguarded and often early game is when scum are most uptight. Unguarded? To me it seems that she is very defensive here: On May 21 2014 06:52 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:45 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:39 27ninjabunnies wrote:On May 21 2014 06:27 jampidampi wrote:On May 21 2014 06:21 27ninjabunnies wrote:
--
It's also obvious who are going to jump out in the front and try and lead town one way or another. We definitely have a mafia or two in the first couple of pages.
You sound confident, enough that I think you have your eye on someone already. Care to share as to who it may be? I may have my eye on a few people. From my experience, there are two type of mafia people: the lurkers, and the ones who like to come out first day and take control of town. I'm focusing on the latter because they are the ones to likely talk more, you can easily find their slips (if any), and they are also more likely to last longer than the lurker mafia. Why are you avoiding my question? I asked you to name your suspicions, but instead you give an indefinite answear and then babble on about something that could reasonably be figured out from your earlier post. If I'm avoiding your question, it's because I have a pretty good damn reason as to why. But because you are being persistant, the ones I have my eye on are Steveling, WaveofShadow and Tehpoofter. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are scum. I rather read more of their play and interactions before I straight out call someone mafia. The majority of these people I haven't played with, and this is my second forum game. If I don't have logic behind my reads, where does that put me? As a freaking town more likely to get mislynched. So hold your horses, let me get my reads, and then we'll talk. She has "a pretty damn good reason" to avoid my question, yet she anwears it. Earlier she said that "we definitely have a mafia or two" but now they are not necessarily scum. Brining out the newbie card, defending accusations that don't exist. I would definitely not call this post unguarded. Based on this I wouldn't clear bunnies so easily, but now you're interesting. What makes you think she was "unguarded" in this post? + Show Spoiler +For the annoyed thing, if she was slightly pissed at me, I would understand this kind of backlash. I agree that she made a terrible post there, my "unguarded" comment did not specifically relate to any one post in particular and more to her style of posting over all. My personal concern with her is actually her sudden clearing of me after I lightly defended her. It's waaaay too early in the game to say you won't lynch someone, even if you qualify it with D1. It still kinda baffles me that you could ignore such a heavy contrast to your generalization about bunnies play. Makes me think that you didn't actually put that much thought into it, which makes me think you might be scum. It's soon 2 AM here, so see you all tomorrow ______ From reading Jampi filter is goes like this: Jampi: Hey Bunnies I think you are scum. Let's interact. (interacting with scumread) Jampi: Hey MZ, do you agree with my scumread on Bunnies. (Interacts with MZ, gives MZ scumread for not seeing what he sees) This shows that jampi had a strong read on Bunnies at that time. Town mindset. On May 24 2014 05:35 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
I can't find anything of value imo in bkq's filter...
Also in MK's too.
I'm bad at using town filters. Is it me or is that like scumslip city I don't think so? Am I missing something? On May 24 2014 05:47 Blazinghand wrote:On May 24 2014 05:45 Xatalos wrote:On May 24 2014 05:42 Blazinghand wrote:On May 24 2014 05:40 Xatalos wrote:On May 24 2014 05:17 kitaman27 wrote:On May 24 2014 05:13 Xatalos wrote:On May 24 2014 05:11 kitaman27 wrote:Mercury is the element of water, and therefore encompasses water and ice. Mercury is symbiotic with Jupiter, neutral toward Venus, and in conflict with Mars. Hmm, sounds like factions could possibly be allied/rivals of other factions based on this description from the wiki. So it would be like this? Town Scum Mercury Jupiter Mars or something I would think: Town Venus Mercury Jupiter Mars If it's like that, then some of the other factions may be hostile towards each others, some may be neutral, allied etc... I think ShiaoPi would rather go for a like 2+2+2+2 setup, right? so that would be 8 scum vs 24 town. if scum have 4 kp, worst case scenario for town is D1: 24-2-2-2-2, mislynch, 4 shots D2: 19-2-2-2-2 mislynch, 4 shots D3: 14-2-2-2-2 LYLO? since presumably you'd need to lynch both scum to stop a scumteam's kp. Of course, there will be scum shooting at each other etc also happening which will help, but I think I could see the setup with 4x2 scum being balanced That seems plausible. It also means that it would be best if we got rid of the remaining Mercury (or Mercuries) to reduce KP? That's true. At the moment I'd rather lynch mtamb, but assuming we can actually find him (and that he's not mtamb), the last frost/mercury warrior, Koshi's buddy, is the best lynch today. Here's what we know about him: 1) he was koshi's scumbuddy 2) his kp was the one that was blocked last night, since fire, lightning, and earth flavors all existed Errr... you're making a ton of assumptions to get to #2 yo. 1) We don't know if KP is factional or by person. 2) Even if it is by person, how do we know that one of the other factions didn't have their KP blocked? His kp, his team's kp, same thing. But the point is, mercury = water, there was no water aligned kp, all the other kp had lightning, fire, and earth. It seems clear to me that the mercury guy had his kp blocked
Do they have to have a kp?
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