EPTAll vanilla setup so boring!
[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
All vanilla setup so boring! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
![[image loading]](http://cdn.weknowgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/dog-tries-to-play-with-shadow-gif.gif) ^^ Wave ^^ | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 01:07 WaveofShadow wrote: I can't think of a game I've ever played that wasn't RNGed... Don't mind the fact that they are RNG'd multiple times until they get the outcome that they want. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 09:29 sandroba wrote: I'm trying to figure that out too. My plan as of now is to wait for some scummer to give themselves away in their first post. Not much of a plan if you're going to warn people about what you're looking for. ##Vote Sandroba (Did you catch me?) | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 09:39 Hapahauli wrote: Normally, even early-game troll votes have some pretense to find someone suspicious/mafia (even if stretched alot). This post doesn't follow. It doesn't call Sandroba scum in any joking/trolling way. You're just calling his actions dumb, then voting for them. Which is a pretty scummy thought process. How are you constructing Sandroba's post to be scummy as opposed to just stupid? What do you think? Do you think I'm trying to paint sandroba in a bad light using my "scummy thought process" like you mentioned or do you think that it was a random vote with little thought? Now that you've found something scummy that I've done, am I a better vote than VE? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 10:39 WaveofShadow wrote: Welp, gonna go with my usual opener. I think the only difference here is for the first time I'm actually relieved to roll town. I'd be pretty terrified to go up against this town as scum. I was kinda hoping to role mafia with the all vanilla setup. They probably have the advantage regardless of who is playing. Wanna vote sandroba with me? He may or may not be scummy. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 10:47 austinmcc wrote: Exactly how did sandroba warn anyone about what he's looking for? (also, hi) He tried to warn people to be careful with how they enter the thread. You should have listened! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 11:22 VisceraEyes wrote: If we're talking meta, pressure won't mean anything to sandroba. He'll either play or he won't, and if he's town he'll probably find some scum. People like kita voting for him as a joke will probably not pressure him as much as you seem to think. I'm not voting him as a joke. I think he is a great vote. We should lynch him today. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 11:34 Hapahauli wrote: Why is he a great vote and/or lynch? I really don't understand what your objective is here given a recent post of yours... I can't point out all the scummy things he posts if he hasn't posted yet. If you were to vote for him then maybe he will respond and I'd have something to give you. Sounds like a win-win to me! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 12:00 Hapahauli wrote: Can we talk about something serious? What do you think of VE? He's the topic du-jour. I can't call VE scummy, else he will vote for me. I KNOW YOUR SECRETS. I'd rather talk about marv. He suggest that the all vanilla setup makes things difficult to start off rather than attempting to generate conversation. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 12:03 Promethelax wrote: and that makes him... you seem to forget how to, you know, call people scummy. Give it a go. If you start calling people scummy and vote for someone off their first post, people won't take you serious later on. I certainly wouldn't do something like that! The person I find scummiest so far is probably Hapa. The reason to random vote sandroba is because he is incredibly lazy and notorious for getting away without posting on day one. Hapa appears to identify that it would be a good idea to try to apply pressure to a slow starter, yet later suggests that he can't understand my objective. Rather than trying to contribute to the pressure, he is satisfied with asking serious questions such as "Why is he a great vote?", when I think it is pretty obvious that there isn't any content in the thread to justify it. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 12:24 Hapahauli wrote: Well... why wouldn't you post this before? Regardless, several players have mentioned that sandroba isn't going to respond to pressure anyway, so I don't see the point here. I wanted to see whether you thought that I was pushing sandroba based on his first post or not. Regardless of whether or not sandroba will react to having votes on him, I still think the best way to start off a game is to place votes early on 1-2 targets. If we're discussing players that have recently posted, I'm not really interested in joining you on VE. Would you be willing to support a Wave bandwagon? I find very few of his questions relevant thus far. I don't see what he is looking for. Wave, would you like to explain your approach to the first few hours of the game? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 12:41 Hapahauli wrote: Wave has been alright so far IMO. He hasn't posted anything to make me suspicious of him, and he seems engaged enough in the thread compared to everyone else in the game. So I'm pretty neutral on him, and would not be willing to bandwagon him. However, I do feel that VE is scummy for the reasons that you're suspicious of Wave: Nothing VE has said has been relevant so far. There are no objectives in his gameplay beyond cracking "witty" 1-lined responses. VE's gameplay so far gives me the impression that he's more interested in irrelevant small-talk than finding a read, pursuing an objective, or even promoting discussion. Hell, Isn't it strange for someone with 10 posts this early not to have said a single damn relevant thing? These days it takes some people 50 posts before they are ready to get started. However, I just reminded myself that I enjoy voting VE. Plus, you beat me to the punch on the obvious follow-up question to Wave so I've decided that I'm willing to work with you! ##Unvote ##Vote VisceraEyes | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 13:06 VisceraEyes wrote: Like, you're entirely skirting around me trying to discuss this with you, while accusing me of not discussing it. Is anyone else seeing this? I'm probably closer to a 2 on Prom than a 10 right now based on your reasoning. Do you think Hapa is mafia for the way he is attacking you? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 11:50 Promethelax wrote: VE: no, everyone is suspicious because you guys had the chance to start without me but did not start. Hello posts are nothing and nothing was done. For like four hours. You say that everyone is suspicious for not getting things rolling, yet later decide it's worth defending marv that he is willing to take a back seat role at the start. Do you think VE is the type of player that engages in serious discussion from the start? On January 21 2014 13:16 VisceraEyes wrote: I think if he's town he's biased and it's bullshit to be so biased already, but whatever. This seems like an overreaction to me. There is very little to get upset about this early on. Generally this tends to be a mafia trait, but I'm willing to reconsider since it's VE. On January 21 2014 12:56 gonzaw wrote: Skimmed fast and saw no Foo' He's obvious scum. Let's lynch him once I wake up....maybe Agreed. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 18:48 marvellosity wrote: I never randomly generate conversation at the start of any games, and I very rarely talk about setup. You and most other players in the game should know this. Why are you suggesting it as something suspicious? Mostly a weak idea to see if anyone wanted to take it farther than it warranted. Nothing useful really came out of it, besides maybe a few unnecessary defense posts that could possibly be looked at post flip later on in the game. Do you feel Hapa's attempts to generate conversation are town motivated or is he more concerned with personal appearance? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 09:31 kitaman27 wrote: Not much of a plan if you're going to warn people about what you're looking for. ##Vote Sandroba (Did you catch me?) On January 21 2014 12:16 kitaman27 wrote: If you start calling people scummy and vote for someone off their first post, people won't take you serious later on. I certainly wouldn't do something like that! On January 21 2014 22:42 Promethelax wrote: Kita (said "I don't call people scummy early because it makes people listen to me less later" which isn't true and so totally wired that it rings scummy since I cannot figure out what it gives a town Kita while it does provide some benefit to a scum Kita.) So one of your strongest reads currently is based off a joke post? gonzaw, do you think VE's response to early pressure was a scummy overreaction or simply a concerned townie trying to fight off a bad argument? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 22:54 marvellosity wrote: I really agree with this though Still haven't quite got over kita being town in whatever game it was where he made some really large, terrible case on drazerk and pushed it repeatedly You know you're good when marv has to go back 15 months to find a bad case in a game where I voted for 5 different scum, roleblocked a scum player 4 times, and shot a scum multiple times. It's ok though. Just because I'm using Luminaire on Lavos, doesn't mean your pointy sword is any less important  I believe in the past marv, you have been hesitant to vote Foolishness early on. Do you think he is jumping on an easy target or do you simply want an explanation? Also, gotta make the rounds. ##Unvote ##Foolishness | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 21 2014 23:53 marvellosity wrote: You believe incorrectly dear. What do you think you or town are gaining by asking me that question about Fool? In the champions game, Foolishness opened with a poor post, someone jumped on it and you reacted as follows: "Foolish is from my site. I wouldn't read too much into that post yet. " "He's a notoriously slow starter; if he doesn't pick up his analysis before the day ends then I'll be having a problem with him." This game you have decided to read into his first post and put him on a shorter leash (which isn't necessarily a bad thing) The reason I'm asking is to see if you've decided to take a different approach this game or if you think his first post in this game is a more serious concern than the previous game. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Since I don't believe we've crossed paths before HolyFlare, lets chat. I'll let you choose the topic. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
When I think of a player that gets off to a trolly start as town, Foolishness is one of the first people to come to mind so I disagree with your assessment based on the posts that you have cherry picked. I'm still content with my vote on him however based on activity. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 01:54 marvellosity wrote: kita, you're vaguely insinuating things, is that where you're leaving it? gonzaw made a meta analysis post without relating it to the current game. I'm perfectly fine with a post aimed to motivate Foolishness to help town, but gonzaw has the largest post in the thread and it serves zero value aka "contributing without making a contribution", which is generally a mafia trait. On January 22 2014 01:59 gonzaw wrote: If you vote him based on activity that's actually more lame. Town Foo isn't super active as marv either. Doesn't this contradict your earlier posts about Foolishness's absence from the thread? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 02:15 marvellosity wrote: I dunno yet. I find quite a few of kita's questions odd (especially taken all together), but I dunno if it's scummy-odd or just kita-odd atm. Well I'm certain not kitaman28. LOL GET IT?! THAT WOULD BE EVEN INSTEAD OF ODD. I'm so funny. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 02:21 VisceraEyes wrote: Making up bullshit justification is totes fine, and not at all out of character for Prome, you're probably right. This is almost becoming border-line "such an overreaction that it might be scum to scum." I'm currently leaning town-town as well, which would make me the third to say as much. That probably doesn't bode well for us -_- Hi Sandroba! Any of those first posts interest you? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 02:31 VisceraEyes wrote: Kita gosh was there a point to that other than "VE stop talking about Prom or I'll think you're suspicious"? Not really. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Sometimes I talk to myself out loud. Like right now. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 02:45 gonzaw wrote: kita, either you didn't fully understand the purpose of my post....or you are posting some weird stuff (I fail to see how my post can be scum oriented in any way, or how I made the post "without relating it to the current game", when I mention exactly how it relates to it even by quoting 70% of Foo's posts this game) I guess it has to do with the fact that the meta analysis was applied to a player with three posts, which I wouldn't be very confident in based on the sample size. If you come to the conclusion that a town Foolishness will eventually attempt to have a helpful attitude and start to scumhunt, yet you think a vote on him until the point where he does so is lame, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish. If you prefer a wait and see attitude, then why not save your meta post until he has something to go by and then come to a conclusion then? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 01:59 gonzaw wrote: If you vote him based on activity that's actually more lame. Town Foo isn't super active as marv either. On January 22 2014 06:28 gonzaw wrote: You can play the "aw aww he has too little posts we can't do anything until he posts more!" card all you want but I call bullshit. It's his move now to convince me (us) into changing our votes. ##Vote: Foolishness Could you explain to me how these two posts differ? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 06:35 gonzaw wrote: Not sure I follow. The posts differ....ehmm..because they have different letters and words? You said you voted Foo' ONLY because of his activity (that's what I understood). That's kind of lame, compared to everything else said. Are you saying that your vote isn't for activity? If you trying to say that you case has merit, rather than you're voting him because he hasn't produced content, than I think you might be mafia. You can't honestly tell me that you're confident about your vote. On January 22 2014 06:35 gonzaw wrote: Anyways kita, I'd like a response for this: I think your guide is irrelevant to this game. Maybe it would be a nice post game thought, but you can't apply it yet. You're a math guy. Surely you understand the concept of sample size. How can you be confident about your meta read based on a couple of intro posts? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 06:54 austinmcc wrote: mainly it feels like a topic that allows mafia to freely post and keep discussion on Foolishness. Is this directed at any individual in specific or are you just suggesting that the opportunity is there? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 07:33 marvellosity wrote: What I actually find suspicious of kita in light of recent posts is how he's attacking gonzaw. gonzaw has been looking pretty town to me lately, he's eager, lots of big posts, he's commenting on a lot of players, he's suspicious of a lot of players with decent grounds, and yet kita is nitpicking at him for his vote on Foolish compared to kita's. That's unnatural and it's not how I'm viewing the game and it doesn't feel right at all. From the start of the game to the point where he votes Foolishness and I comment on him, this is what he has commented on regarding other players: "Why the hell does WOS post "Welp" so many times? :/" "Like, I'm reading WOS posts and they seem kind of fine; except some pointless questions" (Originally posted by me) A valid post questioning Holy's defense of Foolishness. Now you say that you are suspicious of me for my attack on gonzaw due to the fact that "he's suspicious of a lot of players with decent grounds" Am I missing something or are you not reading the thread marv? gonzaw did make a big post on Holy that I have yet to read, but my attack post occurred at an earlier time. How can your suspicions against me be valid if you've got your timeline mixed up? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www2.math.ou.edu/~kujawa/E7plane.jpg) My fellow players, I present to you the greatest advancement in scum hunting techniques since the Mafia Report Card and the Day Three Mayor Election. I am proud to introduce Mafia Combinatorics! In an 11 player setup with three mafia members, there are 165 possible mafia team combinations. However, by attempting to only identify a pair of scum buddies, this number can be significantly reduced. By assuming that you are town*, there are three valid pairs in a group of 45 combinations. If you are able to identify two town players with a high degree of confidence, this number is reduced to three in a group of 28 pairings. Rather than attempting to look for a pair of scum buddies, I shall attempt to identify pairs who are not scum buddies. Even if a valid pair is eliminated due to poor reasoning, there are still two other correct combinations, which allows me to make multiple mistakes before I've eliminated all valid solutions. Through process of elimination, I shall use this list to generate a vote that is slightly better than random, but only with your help! I will attempt to include an updated spoilered list in every post with the cominbations that have not been eliminated based on interactions in the thread, lynch flips, night hits, and strong town reads. If you strongly disagree with a combination that has been eliminated or you believe that I should consider removing a pair for various reasons, let me know! Eliminating yourself because you are town is not a valid suggestion. That only works for me because I'm special. The mafia team is now facing a ticking time bomb. Will they manage to kill me before the game is solved? Will I realize this is a terrible idea that is incredibly time inefficient? Will I be ignored because you guys are unable to appreciate the greatness of my plans? Find out! * Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that this may not be a valid assumption before applying Mafia Combinatorics to a game. + Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] + {Foolishness,Marvellosity} {Foolishness,Promethelax} {Foolishness,Austinmcc} {Foolishness,Sandroba} {Foolishness,VisceraEyes} {Foolishness,HolyFlare} {Foolishness,Hapahauli} {Foolishness,Gonzaw} {Marvellosity,Promethelax} {Marvellosity,Austinmcc} {Marvellosity,Sandroba} {Marvellosity,VisceraEyes} {Marvellosity,HolyFlare} {Marvellosity,Hapahauli} {Marvellosity,Gonzaw} {Promethelax,Austinmcc} {Promethelax,Sandroba} {Promethelax,VisceraEyes} {Promethelax,HolyFlare} {Promethelax,Hapahauli} {Promethelax,Gonzaw} {Austinmcc,Sandroba} {Austinmcc,VisceraEyes} {Austinmcc,HolyFlare} {Austinmcc,Hapahauli} {Austinmcc,Gonzaw} {Sandroba,VisceraEyes} {Sandroba,HolyFlare} {Sandroba,Hapahauli} {Sandroba,Gonzaw} {VisceraEyes,HolyFlare} {VisceraEyes,Hapahauli} {VisceraEyes,Gonzaw} {HolyFlare,Hapahauli} {HolyFlare,Gonzaw} {Hapahauli,Gonzaw} | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Foolishness is pretty reliable for the one big post after people share their annoyance that he hasn't solved the game yet. I'm satisfied enough to move my vote, as long as he doesn't expect the one post to buy enough town cred to ride out the rest of the day in cruise control. His reads match up pretty closely to what I'm thinking at the moment, although I suppose it's not too difficult to call townie looking players town and then pick a couple personal preferences from the remaining group. There is one thing that I disagree with in Foolishness's assessment. He states that sandroba has had a strong appearance and has brought things to the thread. I don't see it so far. When he rejoined the thread, his re-enterence was extremely vanilla. He asked Foolishness about his WoS, which had already been beaten to death and he gave a softball to marv. His statement about Prom wasn't really anything new that he brought to the thread. I'm always hesitant to go after sandroba because I know a lot of the time he goes long periods of time without contributing much and then bursts into the thread with a great case. However, there is a distinct lack of aggressiveness in his posts and after 30 hours into the game, if he can't be bothered to play, that's on him, not me. I may have overreacted to gonzaw's Foolishness case. I completely skimmed past his thoughts on VE and he moves onto sharing thoughts about Holy when he had the option to stay where he is. I haven't decided between town or mafia with a lot of spare time, but activity buys him enough town cred that I don't want to lynch him right now. marv hasn't made a lynch push yet, which is a concern. On day one especially, I know I like to wait until late into the day to make my mind up, but at least I try to provide some direction to where I am leaning. With marv, I really don't know who he is suspicious of. He appears curious about myself, but only really brings stuff up casually without much resolve. He comments that gonzaw made some valid points, but he hasn't followed up on this by attacking any of the targets in question. Nothing really comes to mind when I think of how Marv plays mafia. I remember when he fooled me with active posting when he was new to the forum and I believe he played a backseat role in themed game, but I'll have to take a closer look at his filter. I can definitely see a mafia Marv from a gut read though. There was a post from Prom where he commented on something I was thinking so I gave him town cred, but I can't even find it now so it couldn't have been very strong. I hope to look at Holy/Wave/Prom tomorrow. I'll be at work all day so the 6PM lynch doesn't leave much time to come up with a preferred lynch candidate, but I'll try to do my best. I think austin may have buddied up to me when he defended me where I didn't really need defending. He amuses me though, so I'm not sure we should lynch him yet. @Foolishness, was there anything in particular that made you eliminate sandroba from lynch consideration? ##Unvote ##Sandroba + Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] + {Foolishness,Marvellosity} {Foolishness,Promethelax} {Foolishness,Austinmcc} {Foolishness,Sandroba} {Foolishness,VisceraEyes} {Foolishness,HolyFlare} {Foolishness,Hapahauli} {Foolishness,Gonzaw} {Foolishness,WaveofShadow} {Marvellosity,Promethelax} {Marvellosity,Austinmcc} {Marvellosity,Sandroba} {Marvellosity,VisceraEyes} {Marvellosity,HolyFlare} {Marvellosity,Hapahauli} {Marvellosity,Gonzaw} {Marvellosity,WaveofShadow} {Promethelax,Austinmcc} {Promethelax,Sandroba} {Promethelax,VisceraEyes} {Promethelax,HolyFlare} {Promethelax,Hapahauli} {Promethelax,Gonzaw} {Promethelax,WaveofShadow} {Austinmcc,Sandroba} {Austinmcc,VisceraEyes} {Austinmcc,HolyFlare} {Austinmcc,Hapahauli} {Austinmcc,Gonzaw} {Austinmcc,WaveofShadow} {Sandroba,VisceraEyes} {Sandroba,HolyFlare} {Sandroba,Hapahauli} {Sandroba,Gonzaw} {Sandroba,WaveofShadow} {VisceraEyes,HolyFlare} {VisceraEyes,Hapahauli} {VisceraEyes,Gonzaw} {VisceraEyes,WaveofShadow} {HolyFlare,Hapahauli} {HolyFlare,Gonzaw} {HolyFlare,WaveofShadow} {Hapahauli,Gonzaw} {Hapahauli,WaveofShadow} {Gonzaw,WaveofShadow} | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] + {Foolishness,Marvellosity} {Foolishness,Promethelax} {Foolishness,Austinmcc} {Foolishness,Sandroba} {Foolishness,VisceraEyes} {Foolishness,HolyFlare} {Foolishness,Hapahauli} {Foolishness,Gonzaw} {Foolishness,WaveofShadow} {Marvellosity,Promethelax} {Marvellosity,Austinmcc} {Marvellosity,Sandroba} {Marvellosity,VisceraEyes} {Marvellosity,HolyFlare} {Marvellosity,Hapahauli} {Marvellosity,Gonzaw} {Marvellosity,WaveofShadow} {Promethelax,Austinmcc} {Promethelax,Sandroba} {Promethelax,VisceraEyes} {Promethelax,HolyFlare} {Promethelax,Hapahauli} {Promethelax,Gonzaw} {Promethelax,WaveofShadow} {Austinmcc,Sandroba} {Austinmcc,VisceraEyes} {Austinmcc,HolyFlare} {Austinmcc,Hapahauli} {Austinmcc,Gonzaw} {Austinmcc,WaveofShadow} {Sandroba,VisceraEyes} {Sandroba,HolyFlare} {Sandroba,Hapahauli} {Sandroba,Gonzaw} {Sandroba,WaveofShadow} {VisceraEyes,HolyFlare} {VisceraEyes,Hapahauli} {VisceraEyes,Gonzaw} {VisceraEyes,WaveofShadow} {HolyFlare,Hapahauli} {HolyFlare,Gonzaw} {HolyFlare,WaveofShadow} {Hapahauli,Gonzaw} {Hapahauli,WaveofShadow} {Gonzaw,WaveofShadow} | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita is your vote on gonzaw anything but policy atm? My vote is on sandroba. I suppose you could call it policy. I'd much rather lynch him now, over an individual who is playing if he isn't going to contribute. I also expect more than one big post if he does return. I hadn't looked into Prom/Holy/yourself since your names are coming up the most often. I will certainly change my vote from sandroba if I find someone that I'm confident about. Possibly even slightly less than confident. I really wish people would vote sooner though, even if they need to change their mind. This seems like it is going towards the path where everyone shows up with their vote an hour or two before the lynch. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote: My last note on him in my QT On January 22 2014 23:16 WaveofShadow wrote: Too much filter diving If that's the case, Wave must be town! *wink wink* | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 23:20 marvellosity wrote: kita, what difference is it if people vote "sooner" and you voting someone on policy when you'll quite possibly change your mind when you look into the leading candidates? I don't get it Mostly an excuse to get more content in the thread earlier, rather than later. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 23:23 WaveofShadow wrote: Can you explain the logic behind the bolded? You guys are likely going to take the most time. Mostly split my time looking at 5 people last night, those 3 today (and possibly relooking at sandroba/marv) and leaving the rest out of consideration for now. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On January 22 2014 23:32 WaveofShadow wrote: I disagree. At the time of you posting that, Prome and I didn't exactly have long filters full of varied content---shouldn't be particularly difficult to come up with at the very least a cursory read on either one of us. I agree that Holy (at least to me) would take a little bit of time. Okay, I guess we choose to use our time differently? Not sure what you're getting at. On January 22 2014 23:32 WaveofShadow wrote: What should take a long time about giving a read? Err reading? Looking at Prom at the moment. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 22 2014 23:46 WaveofShadow wrote: I would think that giving reads on said targets would probably be the most useful thing for town at any given point. If that is the case, is there a reason that you haven't given a strong opinion yourself on either individual? | ||
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kitaman27
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On January 23 2014 00:03 WaveofShadow wrote: Now, would you like to see what I have on Prome/Holy thus far? It would be a lot easier if you could just tell us without requiring me to ask  | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On January 23 2014 00:56 Promethelax wrote: Update: my library is closing right now due to snow. More posting will be postponed until an undefined time in the future. Just don't try to get away with never returning to the thread with a vote on me | ||
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kitaman27
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On January 22 2014 08:53 Holyflare wrote: The ending of this post is singlehandedly the most misconstrued post against me I've seen in a long while. On January 22 2014 08:53 Holyflare wrote: you have written at much more length about me and haven't bothered to check how I write, why is that? On January 22 2014 08:53 Holyflare wrote: The remaining quotes are so heavily taken out of context and misconstrued that I find it hard to believe that you follow the train of thought you have written. On January 22 2014 10:01 Holyflare wrote: Why is everything you say a bastardisation of what is actually written? On January 22 2014 10:01 Holyflare wrote: Why have you overblown it into something it quite clearly is not?? These posts clearly suggest that Holyflare thinks that gonzaw is manipulating his posts. The thing that I find scummy about his response is that he never comes to a conclusion about gonzaw's alignment. He suggests that gonzaw is putting forth a biased argument and is being lazy in his research, yet isn't willing to say if he thinks it is mafia motivated or a misguided town. Based on the strong characterization he is giving gonzaw's posts, I would think that he would indeed have a mafia read on him, by a half an hour after the last set of quotes, it seems like that might not be the case. On January 22 2014 10:27 Holyflare wrote: Promise to do it in the morning though. He has failed to follow through with this promise as the morning is over in the UK. I don't like that a player with limited time felt that the most efficient thing to do with his time was to write a couple of defense posts. Looking at his past town and mafia games, I don't draw many parallels to either alignment. His activity is much greater in both sides. I do not find gonzaw's case particularly compelling. Aggressiveness can be a town trait, just as much as mafia. He took a similar stance on Foolishness as I did, preferring to discuss gonzaw since he was present in the thread, although we differed in my preference to put a vote on Foolishness even if I was going to wait on him. Overall, I feel that the defensive post against gonzaw looks worse than his earlier posts. My opinion on him will likely change based on his return to the thread, similar to sandroba. Right now I'm leaning scummy null. Likely doing Wave next. | ||
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As a general heuristic, I think mafia players are more likely to announce that they are have rolled town than town players. Wave isn't alone in doing so and it probably isn't more accurate than 60/40, but it's in the back of my mind. "gonna go with my usual opener" suggests that he is thinking about how he wants to enter the thread, rather than simply commenting on something. On January 21 2014 11:41 WaveofShadow wrote: Now onto more important details: why specifically Hapa? Do you two have a history? Is he going to want to make a case on you at all, never mind find something specific in this post of yours in order to make one? As town, I have absolutely no interest in why Hapa would make a case against Prom. It's pretty obvious that it must be a reference to past games, though I don't really care to hear about it. It's not clear what Wave hopes to gain out of a response here, which suggests we have a different mind frame, but this is hardly enough to justify a vote either. Looking through his past games, his town play and single mafia game seems pretty consistent with all the one line questions. I don't think I'm going to take this into account when evaluating Wave. The first thing that popped out about his single mafia game was the number of expletives he used, which Foolishness also pointed out. While it doesn't take a town player to notice that, at least it seems like we're seeing the same thing. On January 22 2014 09:57 WaveofShadow wrote: Not finding anything damning is meh, because people find terrible reasons to look and compare to my meta every game, but there's an inherent problem with looking at my meta that you really should realize, Foolishness. I have played ONE scumgame. One game does not a sample size make, ESPECIALLY one game played what, 7 months ago? Do you honestly feel it would be accurate to make a comparison of my meta in any way to a sole scumgame when I have changed things about my TOWN play multiple times since then? The last person I can think of who tried to make bad meta arguments against me was Palmar in Thug Life I believe. Oh and by the way, if you think I don't swear as town, you should check out Thug Life for another reason. Bad meta thoughts here are real bad. I'm not sure what the purpose of this post is. Foolishness essentially admits that he wasn't able to find a valid meta comparison. Wave then proceeded to explain why the meta comparisons are bad. Okay, fine he might swear in town games and mafia games, but nobody was saying that he is mafia because based on this reason. Who exactly is he defending himself against? Similar to Holy, Wave's largest post is defensive in nature. I'm willing to give wave a bit more leeway since at least there are a few thoughts he shares opinions on. I'm somewhat frustrated by his unwillingness to share reads without engaging in a direct conversation. I can understand if that is your preferred method of scumhunting, but at some point you have to go by what has been posted in the thread, even if you're not involved. This is more someone that I'm annoyed about, rather than a tie to alignment. The cost of rolling anti-town several times in a row is that players seem to be less likely to trust you going forward. From my perspective, I think I've been more open with my opinion than most others, yet wave still views me as the greatest threat. I'm willing to consider that he is a paranoid townie if he shows interest in other individuals. If he continues to stick to one single player throughout the cycle, I think it's more likely that he is mafia. While there are a few things that I have nitpicked about, there isn't any obvious mafia agenda yet. He could be playing a survivalist style where he doesn't have a strong thread presence and just cares about avoiding the noose, but I don't see a strong case for a lynch yet. I really wish he would comment on more individuals, even if he needs to make a list post. I need to see what he is thinking, even if he is unsure. Leaning townie null. Foolishness has been absent from the conversation again. He said he wanted to hear others thoughts on Wave, so I want to hear from him if he is seeing anything from him that is malicious in nature. I'm sure you will all be disappointed, but I'm putting the combinitorics on hold until at least tonight. I started putting a few together, but it became clear that I wasn't going to come up with a small enough list to have any value in today's lynch. I'm seeing a lot of town reads from VE so I haven't really looked into him, but his play has dropped off, which is a concern. I'm still worried about the lack of direction from marv and austin. | ||
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On January 22 2014 22:53 marvellosity wrote: Wave looks better, for obvious reasons Could you expand on this, even if it's brief? I didn't pick up on the obvious reason. Mine read was more based on the lack of anything wrong, rather than an abundance of anything he has done that is helpful. Also, could you justify your Holyflare vote for me with specifics? You mention that you thought gonzaw's points were good. Is that what you're going by or is the vote mostly due to his absence from the thread? I currently don't have a strong preference between sandroba and Holyflare and it seems like sandroba hasn't been inspired to rejoin the thread. I'll vote with you for the time being. ##Unvote ##Vote Holyflare | ||
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On January 23 2014 02:10 VisceraEyes wrote: I could MAYBE vote for HolyFlare. I'm teetering on the cusp of voting for Foolishness. Have you reevaluated your read on Prom due to his latest posts? If so, do you think you were mistaken about your initial read or are the alternatives a better option at this point. | ||
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On January 23 2014 02:51 marvellosity wrote: I'd very much like to hear from VE as well re: Prome Do you think Prom made a valid case against myself? | ||
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On January 23 2014 02:54 gonzaw wrote: @kita: You have the strange habit of "sheeping" reads and votes, without actually addressing the reasons you are sheeping them? marv agrees with my post, I mentioned a reason for Holy being scum. You sheep marv...but you don't care about that post I made, which is basically what made marv vote Holy just now? Was there something about my earlier Holyfire post that you were not satisfied with? I don't find that I am sheeping marv. I have commented more about Holy than he had. On January 23 2014 02:54 gonzaw wrote: Something similar happened with your vote on Foolishness. marv voted Foo because he made a horrible unexplained vote and entrance. Then you sheep marv as well, but ignore that fact, and spout some other stuff about activity What gives? I'm more than willing to move my vote around throughout the day. I find that it generates more discussion this way. The final vote is the only one that counts so why not? | ||
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On January 23 2014 02:55 marvellosity wrote: yuh huh. you've been giving me the jeebies all game. but you're too active to lynch today in the end. Too active as in you don't think you could pull it off or too active as in you don't want to kill me off right now? | ||
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On January 23 2014 03:02 gonzaw wrote: I just find it weird that the action of you voting is like this automatic sheeping action when marv votes someone. Does 2/4 times make a trend? | ||
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I'm willing to give the replacement a change to provide a fresh perspective. Hoping to have time for Prom, though I have some work to take care of first. | ||
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On January 23 2014 04:03 gonzaw wrote: Hmm, I actually thought him getting replaced would actually force our hand into lynching him, not letting him go. Why do you guys think the opposite? From my perspective, that post of his right now basically means he won't post anymore. He won't contribute anymore, nothing. We can't get any info whatsoever from him or his spot until after D1 ends. That would be different if he was just AFK, where we do get info (i.e he's lurking), or if he comes back and does anything else. By having so many suspicions on him, town sentiment against him, by straight up doing that he forces us to lynch him without a second thought, or completely ignore him from now on. However, if we do the 2nd one, it'd introduce way too much chaos into town, specially if there is not much time before the day ends. Town would have to find new suspects and lynch candidates, etc. It opens a weak spot for scum to influence the lynch or for us to straight up fuck up. Doesn't that basically mean, that we have to lynch him? With Holy we know we're getting someone new and that person has the opportunity to completely turn around Holy's image. If that can avoid a mislynch, then great, otherwise if he is mafia, then his replacement can be lynched. I found a few things scummy about Holy's play, but most of my final decision was going to come down to his future posts. If we know they're not coming, I don't think it warrants a lynch. Unfortunately, there are a lot of individuals that are wait and see with the lynch coming closer. I certainly shouldn't be leading the vote right now. That's for sure. | ||
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On January 23 2014 04:19 gonzaw wrote: Does someone feel like lynching austin? Or at least put him into the lynch table. I mean, nobody wants to lynch Foo, everybody is baffled about lynching Prome or whatever, so why not? I'd consider it. | ||
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I think it's pretty likely that he hasn't checked back since his last large post, so I'm not sure I'm willing to come to the conclusion that he doesn't care, rather than assuming he isn't around. I do believe that it was PTP2 where he simply disappeared and we flipped him on day 2, leaving us pretty underwhelmed, so it's not out of the question. | ||
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On January 23 2014 05:10 kitaman27 wrote: The part of Foolishness's play that makes him most likely to be mafia this game is his disregard for his town image. Even in the games where he is a slow starting townie, he still puts a priority on avoiding the day one mislynch by making it clear that he is town. He has never been mislynched as town, so allowing this to happen in a shadow game would be seem to be out of character. I think it's pretty likely that he hasn't checked back since his last large post, so I'm not sure I'm willing to come to the conclusion that he doesn't care, rather than assuming he isn't around. I do believe that it was PTP2 where he simply disappeared and we flipped him on day 2, leaving us pretty underwhelmed, so it's not out of the question. Hmm, ninja'd. | ||
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On January 23 2014 05:20 Foolishness wrote: You're here and posting, should be obvious that you are town. He's not here and not posting, and that speaks volumes for him. Could you explain how this applies to austin and not Prom's recent set of big posts. I haven't found much merit in the recent set of posts by prom, but nor do I find austin's all that special. How did you differentiate the two? | ||
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If foolishness is mafia with someone like VE/Holy, he is doing a great job at appealing to my interests XD | ||
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On January 21 2014 11:35 Promethelax wrote: Since we aren't the run of the mill hokey dory TL types I think its time we set a few ground rules: there should be no discussion of policy lynching lurkers. We simply lynch them. If everyone is good enough to be shadowed everyone is good enough to play the game and we cannot tolerate lurkers. Prom hasn't followed his own policy, but in the past I've been known to make policy posts in attempt to discourage a behavior, without willing to follow through. It is worth noting that he states that he cannot tolerate lurkers, yet is willing to lynch one of the more active players. On January 21 2014 11:35 Promethelax wrote: I'm town, I have to figure things out. I would much rather lie to you all but fuck me, I don't get to lie to you. I gotta work for my money. I can't imagine that I would ever find myself making a post like this as town with a straight face. On January 21 2014 11:41 Promethelax wrote: I have but you guys had to go and produce actual content while I was bitching about having no content. Stellar start to the game, eh? This reminds me of the kind of posts you see scum make when they aren't around for a mislynch. I'm not very swayed by VE's argument that he is treating Wave and VE differently based off similar posts. Even if it may be true, I don't see the reason for giving preferential treatment, though there may be the concern of a read he made up on the spot, rather than a town player looking for evidence. He defends marv when I really don't think there is a reason to defend him. This may make Prom-marv scum team less likely on second thought. He attacks my post about calling people scummy. I thought it was obvious that I wasn't being serious, but I will concede that it is possible that might not be the case. On January 23 2014 00:00 Promethelax wrote: Rest of the thread: this post adds nothing to the discussion, doesn't do anything but castigate Gonzaw (a player who, based on length of post alone looks townie) and tries to throw doubt everywhere. It reminds me of a Kita scum game with WBG where the two of them got in the thread every time a lylch they didn't like was discussed to talk shit about the lynch by attacking the guy who was leading said lynch. Can anyone remember said game? Either way, that is with or without that meta, this rings of scum to me enough that I am comfortable laying down a ##Vote:Kitaman My stance on the gonzaw/Foolishness interaction was perfectly reasonable. I felt it was invalid to apply a meta case to a player who had 3 posts. Prom fails to explain the mafia motivation for my dissatisfaction with gonzaw's case. I clearly wasn't trying to lead a lynch against gonzaw, so what was I doing? Protecting my scum buddy Foolishness? He attempts to draw the comparison to The Game mafia suggesting that I was attacking a lynch I didn't like. Yet my vote on Foolishness suggests otherwise. I'm hardly playing thread bully like he suggests. On January 23 2014 00:00 Promethelax wrote: But that is the thing, no? Kita is attacking the case on Fool while voting for him. He says that trolly starts are a fooolish M.O. but is voting Fool off of said start. My brain is thoroughly wrinkled. In fact, he even references my vote on Foolishness. The fact that he is incapable of considering the town motivation to vote a player who had not produced content is puzzling. Even if I hold the stance that gonzaw had provided a bad case, doesn't mean that I'm unwilling to work towards the same goal. He doesn't attempt to explain my motivation, rather he states that he is confused by it. I don't find his stream of stream of consciousness posts unreasonable. In his second newbie game, he showed that he was capable of making large posts as mafia. I don't think they contribute much to the thread, as very few of his ideas are new, but I don't have an issue with the posts that he did decide to highlight. With his vote based on the events up to page 18, he doesn't update his thoughts based on having full knowledge of the thread. It seems like there is a lack of interaction with the rest of the thread, but that could be due to the fact that he is playing catch up for half the game. I don't feel as if these posts were presented because he had a strong idea that he wanted to push, rather he was forced to push out content because he hadn't posted in so long. There are just so many other things to comment on this game that I find it incredibly hard to believe that Prom thinks that I am the best lynch this cycle. I'm leaning scum on him, but not to the point where I'm 100% confident. He is my strongest read, however, so I think he is the best lynch at the moment. ##Vote Prom | ||
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On January 23 2014 02:57 VisceraEyes wrote: I don't know man, the catchup posts seemed disingenuous, but I'm afraid I'm biased. Based on the posts I'm more willing to admit that I could be wrong about Prome, and yes the alternatives are looking better. So you strongly believed Prom was mafia at the start, you don't believe that Prom's posts since then make him town, yet you're unwilling to vote him when given the chance? | ||
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On January 23 2014 06:47 gonzaw wrote: I dunno, I have to reread his filter to do that. I'm kind of bummed right now. Why can't all of you guys be good townies and not do scummy shit?  Are you willing to do so within the next hour? | ||
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Sandroba: whoa 3 minutes from the lynch already? Sorry guys, I've been much more busy partying than I intended. I'll be sure to catch up tomorrow, I swear. Sandroba Day 2: LOL NOPE. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:06 marvellosity wrote: Why don't we just kill the dude who doesn't care about town after all? Kinda curious that Fool has 4 ppl as likely mafia (Prome, holy, me, sand) but...willing to test him on sand for now. ##Vote: sandroba Still waiting on your prom thoughts. | ||
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marv so mean. I'd never treat you that way VE. Heading home so I'll be afk for the next 30 minutes or so. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:42 gonzaw wrote: kita where are you. Post stuff, it's definition time and you were one of the ones that propelled the Prome wagon On January 23 2014 07:16 kitaman27 wrote: Heading home so I'll be afk for the next 30 minutes or so. Just got back. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:41 marvellosity wrote: There's two very smelly people on the Prome wagon and sandroba aint flying because mysteriously he's not a good lynch to fool ##unvote ##vote: Foolishness To be clear, you're voting Foolishness because you think he is mafia and prom is not, rather than voting based on who is on what wagon, correct? | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:49 Hapahauli wrote: Well I was typing up this post about you not being interested in consolidation, and your "summary" posts mostly being fluff. Then three things happened: 1) You've been pretty active in the leadup to the lynch I'm not sure if you're caught up but this is 100% false. He was active in the early morning and has been absent since. He has played no role in pushing this lynch. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:50 austinmcc wrote: I'm happy voting prome or sandro. People who are on foolishness and NOT marv, you are unlikely to swap to prome? I'm happy where I am, so you should join me. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:53 Hapahauli wrote: No, but he's active now, and doesn't sound all that panicked and is not pushing any self-serving agendas. voting foolishness isn't a self-serving agenda? | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:58 Promethelax wrote: ##vote sandroba On January 23 2014 07:44 Promethelax wrote: I find fool likelier scum than sand. Sand pulls this shit as town while fool hasn't done so in my experience. I wouldn't be unhappy with a sand list, it isn't my preference but I wouldn't hate it. | ||
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On January 23 2014 08:15 gonzaw wrote: Taking a guess here: Kita - VE - sandroba It's unfounded for now, but that's my "im so fucking pumped ill figure out the entire scumteam!" guess Eww gross. Stop that. | ||
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On January 23 2014 08:27 gonzaw wrote: You two seem kind of bummed. Are you two depressed for some reason? Did your favourite football team lose at the same exact time sandro flipped? ...actually if you are a Manchester United fan that might actually be true so disregard that lolololo Watch out, gonzaw laying down the soccer smack | ||
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On January 23 2014 09:48 gonzaw wrote: Hey kita, I think your Mafia Combinatorics thing might be useful here. For example, VE and Foo just can't be scum together. I believe Prome and kita can't be scum together either (BOTH kita and sandro being on him and kita doing nothing, specially not jumping on the sandro wagon (when he already has a vote on another scumbuddy) doesn't make sense). We could cross other possible scumteams out, and maybe get somewhere. I knew I'd find a believer! | ||
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If I was your leading lynch candidate up until page 30, and the only thing I've really done since then is push a lynch on yourself, rather than swapping to the flipped scum player sandroba, what makes me drop from number one on your list to four? | ||
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On January 23 2014 11:15 gonzaw wrote: Tomorrow? So, Sunderland won against Man United. Peñarol lost. Nacional won. We lynched scum on D1. I ate some fabulous pizza tonight. Life's good, man, life's good. Can't help but think that gonzaw is commenting about this last meal XD | ||
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On January 24 2014 03:39 VisceraEyes wrote: Also isn't it weird that WoS wasn't on the first list?!!?!? :/ Is there a point that you are trying to make here? | ||
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On January 24 2014 03:46 VisceraEyes wrote: Like what's the fucking point of me coming in and trying when people just think it's funny and make jokes and NOT talk about my contributions? Yeah, this game can eat shit. You can always try to convince me. I'm here for you. | ||
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On January 24 2014 03:49 Promethelax wrote: Well Kita, why did you abandon your silly pairings? Yes. I didn't put much time into it though since I decided to spend more time on individuals yesterday. I may see if it gives us anything today, but I want to get the vote analysis looked at first. More of a side thing at the moment.. @gonzaw. I'm not sure what democratic vote thing you are referring to. I intended the list to mostly be for personal use with the option for people to share opinions if they see fit. | ||
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On January 24 2014 04:19 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm going to go ahead and say this, because I feel like I have to. I would have switched to Sand if I were here when the stuff was going down. What stuff going down are you referring to? Weren't you completely caught up to sandroba's re-enterence to the thread? If you are referring to the vote switch, does that mean that the only reason you didn't move your vote earlier was due to the fact that you didn't think he was an option, rather than you feeling Foolishness was a better lynch? | ||
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On January 24 2014 05:00 VisceraEyes wrote: Like, let me rephrase what I said earlier. If I were around, I would have switched to EITHER Prom OR sand. But Foolish was on Prom and felt like he was manipulating me so I was hesitating and then I got caught up and never made it back to the thread. Weren't you around with 20 minutes to go. Why couldn't you switch then? | ||
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On January 24 2014 05:03 VisceraEyes wrote: I literally just answered this in the post you quoted. It's explicit in my posting at the time. Why are you asking me this? mmk for some reason I thought the manipulating post had come at the beginning of the hour. Is Prom/Foolishness/Sandroba the most likely trio in your opinion or just something to consider? | ||
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Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow Promethelax (2): Foolishness, Kitaman27 Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax Sandroba (1): marvellosity This is probably the best place to start with the voting analysis. With 50 minutes to go, the Foolishness vs Prom lynch is wide open. At this point, mafia has their choice of either player to flip. In a town vs town scenario, mafia generally prefer to vote the player that is not going to flip. That gives them an excuse to push the same player the next cycle, rather than finding a new target to go after. In town vs mafia, it can usually go two ways. A strong scum player will give their support to their scum buddy by voting the town candidate. From my experience, it is pretty rare to see a mafia player vote their own scum buddy in a close lynch early. A weaker scum player will generally wait until more town votes come in and there is a clearer picture of where the lynch is heading. They may decide to vote for their scum buddy later on if they think that is where the lynch is heading. If they can put their vote on an buddy that isn't going to flip, that's usually the preferred scenario. Foolishness (3): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba Kitaman27 (1): Promethelax Sandroba (1): marvellosity, Next, sandroba comes in with his vote on Prom. This actually makes me reconsider my red Prom read. If it's town vs town here, sandroba doesn't really care and Prom is town. If it's town Prom vs mafia Foolishness, then the vote makes sense. A mafia prom vs a town foolishness doesn't make much sense. It would be incredibly risky to tie the vote up at 3v3 and his little reward. Sure, Foolishness could flip and sandroba might look better, but at the expense of endangering his scum buddy when he could make it 4v2? If the bus is going on, then it must have been a last minute decision because there is little interaction between the two in the thread. Not much reward there either. At this point, I also don't think the mafia team was thinking about a sandroba lynch. With 1/8 votes actually on Sandro, he knows he is going to get in trouble for showing up at the last minute, but I don't think mafia is in "lets bus sandroba" mode. Foolishness (4): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba Sandroba (1): marvellosity Prom returns to the thread and moves his vote over to Foolishness. I had an issue with this at the time, but on second thought I think it's fine as town or mafia. He has already shared suspicion of Foolishness earlier in the thread and his vote is going no where on myself. He doesn't seem to consider sandroba, but it's possible that he doesn't see that as an option yet. Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli Sandroba (1): marvellosity Hapa joins Prom, Marv joins Foolishness. Not much to say here. Vote could still go either way. Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity Promethelax (4): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba, Hapahauli Sandroba (1): marvellosity gonzaw (1): HolyFlare I think this vote from Holy eliminates a Fool-Holy and Prom-Holy mafia team. As a player without any value for the mafia team due to replacement, unless a mafia Holy is 100% cut off from all communication with his scum team, I think he would vote to save a buddy, rather than abstain, even if he wasn't totally caught up. Foolishness (6): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, Marvellosity, Hapahauli Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, sandroba Sandroba (1): marvellosity gonzaw (1): HolyFlare At this point, it seems pretty likely that Foolishness is getting lynched with only 10 minutes left in the day. The vote swap to sandroba comes in the following order: gonzaw, austin, marv, Hapa, Prom I don't see this as a swap that was mafia driven. It's likely that they were caught off guard here. I have a strong town read on gonza/Hapa, and I'm thinking town Prom due to the reasoning above. marv I was suspicious of most of yesterday before the lynch, but he plays a strong role here and makes some good points throughout the later part of the cycle. Unless it's marv + foolishness (which seems unlikely), I'm leaning town on him as well. I don't feel that I have a good grasp on austin. He does play a role in the lynch by getting on sandroba 2nd in the swap, but he seemed mostly willing to go with where the town lead him. If Hapa/marv went to Prom instead, it seems like he would have joined them. If there is a mafia in this group of 5, it seems like it would be him, but I need to think more about that. Finally, we have Foolishness. Based on the way the votes went down, I'm struggling to see who the third scum buddy would be if he is mafia. I don't think he would be with Holy due to the reasons I mentioned earlier. Does VE or WoS really leave Foolishness out to dry by leaving the thread when he is in trouble? marv has too many interactions with him, unless they are trying to put on a show. Prom seems unlikely. gonzaw and Hapa look town, unless there is something I'm really overlooking. That really only lives Foolishness/sandroba/austin. I suppose that could be a possibility with austin being on the "anyone but Foolishness" side of things. It might also explain why austin was reluctant to vote prom when he seemed to be one of his preferred targets a bit before the swap since it would mean all three scum players would be on the same player, which could get ugly late game. I'm somewhat concerned with the fact that he doesn't seem to consider that I could be mafia at any point in the game. From my experience, I usually get called town by the mafia players, while town players are a bit more paranoid. sandroba and austin are also guilty of that this game. I'm probably still leaning town on him, though less so than others. It seems to be that the individuals who were absent are the ones most likely to be mafia (VE, WoS, Holy), which seems to be where the town is leaning as well. I'm going to reread all three when I have the time. | ||
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On January 24 2014 06:04 VisceraEyes wrote: It's fine, I'm done with this game. Honestly people are too tunneled in and there's literally nothing I can do. When I try and participate it is shat on, when I try and have conversations with people it's scum claiming, I have literally no will left to play this game. Sorry austin, you didn't make it. Maybe come back a bit later with a focus on who you would lynch, rather than defending yourself? Even if you can't avoid a lynch, if you flip green I'd think people would still look back and see who you made cases on. | ||
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On January 24 2014 06:07 Promethelax wrote: So why aren't you a part of town? Hmm? | ||
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Scum slips exist, but that is not one of them  Any thoughts on the actual post? | ||
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On January 24 2014 05:57 gonzaw wrote: These guys are untouchable for now. They only become touchable if we misslynch someone. If we keep lynching scum, then they keep being untouchable. If we do misslynch someone, it is proof we were wrong, thus we reconsider those guys (Foo in particular). But until then, talking shit about them and stuff will only clutter up the thread when we have other suspicious dudes to focus on. Do people agree (bar VE)? Can simplify things a lot. We could discuss leaving Foo in it or out of it if you want, but at least the other 5 do go. I probably wouldn't include the pair in the day 2 lynch discussion, but do you think Foolishness/austin is a viable pair or is there something that would eliminate these two as a team that makes sense? | ||
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ZOMG ZOMG! | ||
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On January 24 2014 22:12 gonzaw wrote: Way more important than "Does VE ragequit as scum?" speculation and "Scum VE wouldn't post shit on gonzaw with shitty reasons because he'd know it'd look bad therefore VE is town" From what I could tell, he usually comes out with this huge "why VE is town" post the day he is about to die. I didn't find any examples to compare to his behavior this game, aside from a few overly aggressive/frustrated posts. What worries me about WoS's post is that he doesn't seem to consider the sandroba vote on Prom. Even if he has a scum conclusion, I'd think he would at least comment why it's a calculated move. I'll have a longer post out today on WoS/VE, but I might not have the time until this evening. | ||
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On January 24 2014 23:05 marvellosity wrote: yeah VE ragequits. As either alignment. It's whether I can see it as an emotional response I understand. At the moment it seems over the top and artificial. I thought the interaction with Prom at the very start of the game was the over the top and artificial part. He overreacted to a couple of posts within the first hour of the game that mostly seemed like feeler posts and made Prom his lynch candidate. Then when it came time to vote, he dropped it with the "foolishness is manipulating me" stuff. That's probably the most important part to me. | ||
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On January 24 2014 23:07 WaveofShadow wrote: My D1 is usually pretty bad. I almost NEVER have strong scumreads on D1 and I'm not going to fake confidence about them if they don't exist. If I'm wishy washy about something in thread it's because I'm not afraid to show the rest of the town my thought processes on a matter, which I would think is fairly obvious that that is what I am attempting to do. I think in the end you have to push yourself to pick a read even if you're not 100%. I wasn't rock solid on Prom and I had sandro in my top 3 scum list, but I still stuck with my lynch because that was the player I had the best feeling about at the time. It may get me in trouble in the long run, but sitting back and allowing others to determine the fate of the lynch doesn't do you any good when 3/10 of them have an anti-town agenda and the other 7/10 likely are just as puzzled as you. | ||
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On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote: Austin and sandroba might as well be afk until 3 pages ago, but since coming to the thread both have had strong appearances. I'm okay with them right now because they have brought things to the thread This is the post that still bothers me the most about Foolishness when he groups austin and sandroba in his null reads. Foolishness, I know you stated several times that you were treating sandroba as wait and see, but what are the "strong appearances" and "things brought to the thread" that you are referring to with sandroba's posts. I mentioned earlier that I disagreed with his assessment, but you didn't reply. Could you please point out what you were seeing? | ||
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On January 24 2014 12:10 Foolishness wrote: It does make sense if I'm mafia, and I said this before. But as Austin correctly pointed out who is the third mafia and why wasn't there a bigger push to save me? Sandroba's vote is a comfortable vote, if the mafia needed to save me there would have been a push to save me. They were letting the town do the dirty work for them. Additionally, a "mafia push" to save you can't exist if you're mafia, sandro is mafia, and the third player is either absent or has no thread presence. Earlier I brought up the "who is the third mafia" question as well, but I don't think that's solid enough reasoning to leave you out of consideration. | ||
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On January 25 2014 01:16 gonzaw wrote: @kita: Who is scum? You posted this like 20 hours ago. I suggest you stop fooling around and get to it. Still at work for another 6 hours. I'll need time for dinner and to read the thread, so I can't imagine I'll have much sooner than 8-9 hours from now aside from the random side comment. I'm still at VE, Holy, WoS, and I'm probably going to bring Foolishness back into the mix. I have read through Wave's posts and he clearly is putting effort in. I haven't put much thought into the quality or mind frame of the posts. I'd probably lean VE over WoS at the moment, though I haven't looked at Toad really at all. | ||
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On January 25 2014 01:41 WaveofShadow wrote: I've never understood why people on this forum go for WoS over wave. TL mafia is the only place this occurs and i use this name everywhere. Apparently I use both at the same time -_- | ||
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On January 25 2014 02:59 VisceraEyes wrote: His largest post in the thread is his combinatrics post. This part is untrue. Why do you keep bringing up a side thought and acting as if it is my only contribution? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=56#1106 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=36#720 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=30#593 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=27#539 On January 25 2014 02:59 VisceraEyes wrote: Flashes onto minions to steal farm. #Worth | ||
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On January 25 2014 04:23 VisceraEyes wrote: Like, and he was last on the wagon - whether it was a minute or 10 minutes, he voted last on the wagon and was NOT the hammer vote on sandroba. Do you think it's likely that scum sandroba moved the lynch from 2-3 to 3-3 onto a scum Prom? | ||
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On January 25 2014 04:36 Toadesstern wrote: the thing is, if foolishness is mafia that explains why he didn't vote Sandro despite being a very shady explanation. If Sandro and Foolish are mafia together Foolish has nothing to lose, it's either him or Sandro to get lynched, might as well just do nothing and hope that in the confusion of voteswitches Prome (assuming he's town) gets into a more favoreable position to be lynched. If Prom however is mafia as well, so saying it's Sand - Foolish - Prom, that unwillingness from Foolish to vote Sand makes no sense whatsoever. He has nothing to get out of not voting Sand except for a 1-1 trade with Sand which doesn't change a thing for him. Voting Sand however gives him the chance to get some towncred out of it and he WAS around, he could have certaintly voted Sand. It just doesn't make sense if Prom and Foolish are both mafia. I cannot think of a scenario where Foolishness would have not moved his vote if he needed to for survival. I think he would have done so regardless of his own alignment and regardless of the alignment of any other player, he just didn't need to since the votes where there. | ||
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On January 25 2014 04:49 VisceraEyes wrote: I was making porkchops. I think I need proof. Please provide a sample so that I can verify. | ||
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On January 25 2014 04:29 kitaman27 wrote: Do you think it's likely that scum sandroba moved the lynch from 2-3 to 3-3 onto a scum Prom? When you get a chance ^ | ||
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On January 25 2014 07:08 VisceraEyes wrote: I mean if it was his last act in the game then I don't see why not - especially if you're talking about the 2-3 vote being onto prom, as if this is plurality lynch then the other guy would have been voted off anyway. Why would sandroba think it was his last action in the game? It didn't even look remotely close to a sandroba lynch at the time. | ||
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On January 25 2014 07:11 kitaman27 wrote: Why would sandroba think it was his last action in the game? It didn't even look remotely close to a sandroba lynch at the time. And it was 3-2 Foolishness. Is there a reason you haven't even checked on how the votes went down? | ||
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On January 25 2014 07:12 kitaman27 wrote: And it was 3-2 Foolishness. Is there a reason you haven't even checked on how the votes went down? Nevermind. But you think it's a risk worth taking? Making it 3-3 rather than 2-4? | ||
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On January 25 2014 07:15 VisceraEyes wrote: I have a general idea of how they went down. I know Foolish was up for lynch, and Prom and sand both were possibilities. I was thinking about switching to Prom but felt like Foolish was manipulating me and so I stayed on Foolish. Like, it just seems like people are putting WAAAAY too much stock into VCA. That hardly ever happens here, and I'm starting to see why. Isn't that incredibly relevant though? sandroba has his choice of lynches there. You think he goes for the bus to further his on position? | ||
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On January 25 2014 07:15 marvellosity wrote: Does anyone else find that Toad not reading holy's posts sketchy, or am i making something out of nothing? I'd expect him to read it at some point due to the need to see if cases against him are legitimate, but if he is using his time on other stuff I'd not entirely concerned. | ||
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On January 21 2014 08:27 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm town. And damn sexy. On January 24 2014 05:10 VisceraEyes wrote: The important thing to remember when considering my read of Foolishness is that I know that I'm town. On January 24 2014 05:48 VisceraEyes wrote: All I know for sure is that I'm town On January 24 2014 05:58 VisceraEyes wrote: You're removing my opinion, but I'm town giving more power to scum. On January 25 2014 07:16 VisceraEyes wrote: Not that I think they're meaningless, but I know that at least I'm town Is there a reason you find it necessary to say this so many times? | ||
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On January 25 2014 00:08 kitaman27 wrote: This is the post that still bothers me the most about Foolishness when he groups austin and sandroba in his null reads. Foolishness, I know you stated several times that you were treating sandroba as wait and see, but what are the "strong appearances" and "things brought to the thread" that you are referring to with sandroba's posts. I mentioned earlier that I disagreed with his assessment, but you didn't reply. Could you please point out what you were seeing? | ||
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On January 25 2014 09:52 Foolishness wrote: Before you post, you might want to read my previous posts. Saving you effort and humility. Also might save you from getting lynched down the line (cause I think you're town at the moment). Humility? I thought you were town yesterday, I'm thinking you're mafia today. 100% CHANCE OF BEING RIGHT AT SOME POINT IN THERE. | ||
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TL Mafia XLIV TL Mafia XXX Personality Mafia 2 Responsibility Mafia The single most important part of this argument is the way Foolishness has been pushing lynches this game. + Show Spoiler + On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote: The thing about Promethelax is that his first post is a big pile of words and nobody said anything about it besides WoS which was just a passing remark. Here's the post again: + Show Spoiler + On January 21 2014 11:35 Promethelax wrote: Okay broskis, this is just silly. We know how to start a game and it isn't this Mafia Scum inspired baseless lynches shall we discuss policy? Why yes we shall because you all will actually have to commit to something. Since we aren't the run of the mill hokey dory TL types I think its time we set a few ground rules: there should be no discussion of policy lynching lurkers. We simply lynch them. If everyone is good enough to be shadowed everyone is good enough to play the game and we cannot tolerate lurkers. It is my hope that this particular policy doesn't come into play since, obviously, we are the best that TL has so we should play the best as well and lurking simply isn't the best. We are all good enough to carry a town and I would like us all to be that good this game. Play your hearts out gentlemen. I would also like a non-aggression pact. That is we all agree to play nice since I'd rather like to be good role models for our newbies. And yes, I know I'm scummy for posting this, does someone want to come out and say it so that I can defend myself and we can move on with this game and make actual cases on each other and find scum. Unlike WoS I was excited to roll scum in this game, I figured I'd have an excuse to be steamrolled but if I did a good job it would be a huge accomplishment but no, I'm town, I have to figure things out. I would much rather lie to you all but fuck me, I don't get to lie to you. I gotta work for my money. So get it together boys, we are policy lynching lurkers, we aren't going to be mean to each other and we are going to catch scum. And we'll start with Hapa making a case on me, why? Because its tradition is why. Promethelax even admits that his post is awful and that we should call him out on it. Sounds great to me! This kinda bait is definitely a mafia trait and if he thinks he's posting bad then we should definitely lynch him for it. The reason being, if he knows his post his bad why is he making it in the first place? His initial post accomplishes nothing and says nothing and only adds fluff to the thread. I am also bothered by his most recent thread post: Because all his reads feel very convenient. There is nothing in his filter that gives us new information or his original thoughts. Remember Foolishness's first huge post about the game? Lets take away all the quotes and town reads, which are incredibly easy to throw around like candy. This is what it looks like if we're just looking at his Prom case: + Show Spoiler + On January 22 2014 07:19 Foolishness wrote: The thing about Promethelax is that his first post is a big pile of words and nobody said anything about it besides WoS which was just a passing remark. Here's the post again: Promethelax even admits that his post is awful and that we should call him out on it. Sounds great to me! This kinda bait is definitely a mafia trait and if he thinks he's posting bad then we should definitely lynch him for it. The reason being, if he knows his post his bad why is he making it in the first place? His initial post accomplishes nothing and says nothing and only adds fluff to the thread. I am also bothered by his most recent thread post: Because all his reads feel very convenient. There is nothing in his filter that gives us new information or his original thoughts. This is an incredibly limited amount of content in regards to scum hunting. For a post that large, it shows that a limited amount of effort was actually put on scum hunting. He attacks Prom for using a bile of words and saying nothing, yet he is the one spending more time explaining why people like hapa or myself are town or saying that lurkers that haven't posted are null. Now lets take a look at how he pushes the case: On January 23 2014 05:07 Foolishness wrote: 3) Promethelax is scum. Err....ok then. Anything to add? On January 23 2014 05:31 Foolishness wrote: I don't see any arguments that show that Promethelax is pushing the town in the right direction or pushing a pro-town agenda. He's responded sure, but where's the conviction and the push to get something done? Hmm, well alright. So are you even going to push the player that you state as scum as if it's a fact? On January 23 2014 05:57 Foolishness wrote: I already said that I'm prefectly okay with HolyFlare getting lynched. And by perfectly okay, I really mean okay. As in, if guys are that convinced that Promethelax needs another chance then please let me know now so I can move my vote. Apparently not. Lets see how he pushes the case when it comes to crunch time. On January 23 2014 06:39 Foolishness wrote: The problem is is that Promethelax is mafia and there is solid information on why. What's the information saying sandroba is mafia? oh he's inactive. There is apparently solid information, yet raise of hands: who is convinced by this post? He hasn't even mentioned Prom since his first large post 24 hours ago. He doesn't feel the need to highlight any of the posts. On January 23 2014 07:11 Foolishness wrote: sandroba is not a good lynch when Promethelax and HolyFlare are still alive. On January 23 2014 07:52 Foolishness wrote: Should just do the Promethelax lynch cause that's a lynch for mafia. Sandroba is still iffy Again, where are the compelling key points that show Prom is mafia? On January 23 2014 07:54 Foolishness wrote: Perhaps I'm just that sure on Promethelax, and in these situations my reads get messed up in my head because of all the pressure. So I default to my strongest read before going on crazy goose chases. Take a look at Foolishness's original case. Now pretend you're Foolishness. After reading those statements, do you think it's likely that a town Foolishness is as confident as he is based on those points? I don't. Now lets look at his actions this cycle. I feel the vote analysis can be made by a player of either alignment. There isn't any part of this that makes you think he has to be town aligned. In the end, vote analysis is going to be trumped by scum hunting, so here is what we get today: On January 24 2014 04:52 Foolishness wrote: What is disturbing about this is his wishy-washy behavior about me. He says he doesn't agree with my case on Promethelax, and that's fine in itself, and he also says he wants to "lynch me less". Then before voting for me says that my answers were "good enough" and that they "fit for a lack of a better term", and that it's my "early play that doesn't make sense to me". If my answers are fitting and good enough why are you voting for me? Just cause you don't agree with me on a person being mafia does not make me mafia. I was actually really surprised when he dropped his vote on me, who tells someone that they have good answers but they are still lynching them? What is also interesting is that he's entirely sheeping a read and admitting to it. Admitting to sheeping a read does not exempt you from sheeping a read. Does it seem like he has his own opinion on the matter? Does it seem like he has an idea of who to vote for? No. Look through his posts, he never really accuses anyone, and never says that he thinks person X would be a good lynch (as I said above, he never said that directly about me either). He dances around a lot of people, myself, marvellosity, Promethelax, etc. Sure, he threw his vote down and knew he wasn't going to be here before the deadline, and there is nothing wrong with that. The problem is that he had no opinion on who should be lynched before the vote. Also his vote started a landslide, since there were already 2 votes on me, and at the time the next closest persons had 1 vote. This is a critical vote because it started the pile up on me, and when people came back and saw this they started piling on (even though those people piling on are likely town cause they all jumped ship to sandroba). There are essentially three points he is making here. The third point isn't a reason why Wave is scum, it's a summery of game events. His first and second point don't address what differentiates a town Wave with a lack of confidence from a mafia player who is pushing a mafia agenda. That's the most important part, yet instead he goes with the generic case that could be used in just about any game. Again, lets look at the followup to his preferred lynch target: On January 24 2014 11:26 Foolishness wrote: WoS or VE today. ##Vote: WaveOfShadow Where is the aggressive tone or the powerful analysis that we should expect? I may have suggested that gonzaw's meta analysis cannot be applied to the first 3 posts of the game, but it certainly can be applied now. Rather that contributing the the scum hunting effort with he latest most. He gives us more vote analysis to argue that Prom is town. As Foolishness likes to say, WHO CARES? Finally, lets look at his final argument: On January 24 2014 05:07 Foolishness wrote: From what we know of day 1 if the four of you die then the town wins. On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. This does absolutely no good for us today. He lists four different players and suggest that we kill one. In fact, he has called VE and myself obvious town, he still thinks I'm town, he hasn't provided a strong analysis on VE who he thought was obvious town, and hasn't mentioned toad. As a town player, I'd always watching for the player that is getting overlooked. He shows absolutely no signs of this. Instead of scum hunting we get, meh "VE or Wave" toodles! I did comment that I don't know who the third mafia would be. However, it's not clear who the third mafia is with any lynch target. I don't feel it's impossible for him to be paired with VE, WoS, Toad, or even austin. Players that go against him are "incredibly paranoid", pushing a "conspiracy", about to "lose the game for town" or are going to be "humiliated" afterwards. That's just a way to bully someone into looking elsewhere. Foolishness is mafia ##Vote Foolishness | ||
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On January 25 2014 10:54 Foolishness wrote: Wait, how is it bullying someone into looking elsewhere when it's the truth? That's the point you decide to cherry pick? On January 25 2014 10:54 Foolishness wrote: But also, your analysis fails to comment upon the numerous vote information I brought to the thread during the night (all made before your post keep in mind), the clear evidence that Promethelax is town, the mindset the mafia had during day 1 and the first lynch, and an outline of a plan for the town to win the game based on the lynch, votes and interactions. Your vote analysis isn't equivalent to scum hunting. You decide to spend your time informing the thread that Prom is town. I'm pretty sure I think prom is town, gonzaw thinks prom is town, marv thinks Prom is town, austin thinks Prom is town. What value is there in that? Instead, you've failed to provide a compelling case, aside from process of elimination. | ||
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On January 25 2014 11:01 Foolishness wrote: Also, the meat of your argument seems to be that I lack a 10 page essay on why someone is mafia. I'll tell you right now that you certainly aren't getting one about any player in the game the next few days, and probably not for the entire game. I don't have the time in my life to do such a thing so I can only give you what I got with the time that I have to play this game. I don't require a 10 page essay. You haven't providing any arguements aside from "this player has a large post full of nothing", "this player isn't confident in his reads", or "this player didn't vote sandroba" | ||
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On January 25 2014 12:02 austinmcc wrote: I think you're making too much of the "lynch into these 4." If that was all Foolishness had said, period, then you would be 800% right to call him out on that. It's an 11 man game with 2 dead and everyone knows his own alignment though. To the extent someone thinks, with decent reasoning, that the sandroba lynch was ENTIRELY town, it's a perfectly valid statement. The most helpful? Naw. But I don't think anyone threw out all notes, stopped reading thread, and put those 4 names on a post it note for the next 4 lynches. Are you satisfied with the way he pushed the Prom lynch and his current case against Wave? | ||
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On January 25 2014 12:04 austinmcc wrote: Do you think Foolishness is the BEST lynch for today? Most likely mafia? Or just he's got a good chance of flipping, but probably better prey elsewhere? I think it's between VE and Foolishness for me. Wave seems like he is putting enough effort into the game to warrant surviving at least one cycle longer than these two. I haven't seen a compelling argument against Toad yet. Holy was scummy null for me, but that was off a limited amount of posts. I'm mostly in wait and see mode on him. I'm on the fence with VE right now. A lot of the things he is doing I can see from a town or mafia VE. As of right now, Foolishness is the best lynch in my opinion. | ||
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On January 25 2014 12:15 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita, for what reasons would YOU think I'm mafia? Because toad's foolishness's reasons have been incredibly weak imo. I don't have you in my top 2 at the moment? | ||
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On January 25 2014 12:14 WaveofShadow wrote: Do you agree with any of toad's case on me? Why or why not? I think it's a valid point that you weren't sharing any strong opinions or pushing a lynch on day one. Some of the things that I've said about how Foolishness treats the lynch could probably be applied to you as well, which is why I'm not eliminating you. I disagree with the way he paints your absence from the lynch as "convenient" as if you planned to throw down a vote decided not to post because it benefited you. I think it's more likely that you simply weren't around. I'm also concerned about the fact that he seems to only take day one events into account. It's unclear how caught up with the thread he actually is. Could you refer me to the posts that from yourself/gonzaw that you think best summarize the case against him? | ||
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On January 25 2014 14:09 austinmcc wrote: Of course it's possible. Cooking can take a really long time, depending on if there was more than just porkchops. Cooking + eating + any family time + cleanup can easily be 5 hours. Some high level pork chop analysis right here. | ||
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So is it 4-4 right now with Foolishness hitting 4 first? Considering moving over to VE to make it 5v3. brb | ||
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On January 26 2014 06:21 gonzaw wrote: Why? Don't you think it's more productive to try and convince me to switch to Foo for instance? I'm thinking VE might be the better lynch right now. Wouldn't make sense to convince you on Foolishness, if that wasn't my preference. | ||
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On January 26 2014 06:20 VisceraEyes wrote: Talk all the shit you want, this is the second day in a row I show up and try and contribute and get "look so scummy lol he's trying that's so fucking scummy" The vote is 4-4 with Foolishness hitting 4 first and you decide that you're going to swap to yourself essentially sealing your own fate? This can't possibly be a town reaction can it? | ||
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##Unvote ##Vote VisceraEyes | ||
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On January 26 2014 06:28 VisceraEyes wrote: No you're right it's probably most likely a scum reaction. Scum vote themselves off the island all the time right? I find that scum are more likely to overreact and quit if they feel that the effort it's going to required isn't going to save themselves. Town has a reason to keeping going since the analysis actually has value once they flip. | ||
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On January 26 2014 03:54 VisceraEyes wrote: I'm apathetic...I don't care anymore if you guys think I'm scum because I have literally done nothing this phase. On January 26 2014 04:25 VisceraEyes wrote: My first priority is to find scum. And I've been trying, but I get shit on every time I try. Err so which one is it? | ||
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On January 26 2014 06:42 Foolishness wrote: Because VE actually seems like he's trying to figure things out and is listening to arguments brought forth. WoS seems very headset on lynching a few people (he's pushing what could be a mafia agenda) and seems to be ignoring critical information brought forth about the lynch yesterday. But I could very well be wrong on both accounts. Didn't VE admit that he is not trying? (See above) | ||
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On January 26 2014 06:42 Foolishness wrote: Because VE actually seems like he's trying to figure things out and is listening to arguments brought forth. WoS seems very headset on lynching a few people (he's pushing what could be a mafia agenda) and seems to be ignoring critical information brought forth about the lynch yesterday. But I could very well be wrong on both accounts. I'm getting the opposite impression. Wave has been around and interacting with the thread, while VE has just returned recently. You haven't commented on any of WoS's posts for quite a while. Does all the newer stuff still lead you to the same conclusion? | ||
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Trying to think if VE + Foolishness makes sense though. | ||
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=64#1275 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=64#1276 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=65#1281 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=65#1284 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=81#1613 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=67#1330 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=72#1428 | ||
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Me and gonzaw would be enough to decide the lynch either way, assuming that VE doesn't end the cycle off by himself. | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:14 kitaman27 wrote: Well Foolishness is voting VE no matter what this cycle. He just isn't ready to admit it. Me and gonzaw would be enough to decide the lynch either way, assuming that VE doesn't end the cycle off by himself. In fact, are you ready to move your vote back VE? | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:17 gonzaw wrote: Hmm, yeah, we are both voting VE, so we can end the lynch on Foo if we want. You think there's something wrong with a VE+Foo scum team perhaps? I initially thought it'd be kind of impossible, since VE parked his vote on Foo on D1 and kept it there doing nothing, even with Foo gaining 6 votes. But well.....scum be scum perhaps? There was the interaction at the beginning of the game where VE and Hapa were going at it and Foolishness interjected saying "lol you're both town". You think that happens as scum to scum? | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:26 gonzaw wrote: Hmm. Foo has been calling VE town the whole game without flinching basically. Except when he put him in the "scum is in these 4" bag. Well apparently now VE is 90% mafia. | ||
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9 remaining VE lynch + shot 7 remaining Toad lynch + shot 5 remaining lylo Wave lynch + shot 3 remaining I'm guessing mafia in those three. Essentially it would mean he would likely have to beat me in lylo with someone like marv/austin as the third? | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:18 kitaman27 wrote: In fact, are you ready to move your vote back VE? Do you plan to return to keep your vote where it is? If so, would appreciate a reply to save our time. | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:54 gonzaw wrote: kita, you here for a possible switch or something? You believe we should keep the lynch on VE now, or do some shenannies? If VE is unwilling to return to save himself, then I don't think we should bother trying to save him. | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:57 kitaman27 wrote: If VE is unwilling to return to save himself, then I don't think we should bother trying to save him. Do you agree with this? | ||
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On January 26 2014 08:00 VisceraEyes wrote: Still town. Gg friends. Sigh, asked you three times to at least give us the Foolishness option -_- | ||
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On January 26 2014 08:31 gonzaw wrote: kita, what do you make of this flip? makes me wish we were on foolishness I'm going to reread austin and marv for the sake of making sure that I'm not missing the big picture. | ||
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On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote: In terms of actual connections between I haven't done a thorough analysis to say "these two players could be a likely pair". One thing I did take notice of was that in day 1 Kitaman was pushing hard for sandroba (and voted for sandroba twice during the day). I think this says something because why would Kitaman be drawing so much attention to his obviously semi-inactive mafia teammate (especially on day 1, and especially on a player who is known for being inactive as mafia)? Because of this I don't find Kitaman likely to be mafia with sandroba. For the remaining three players I could potentially see any of them being together at this point. I haven't read Toad's filter closely, and everytime I read HolyFlare's I go back and forth on whether I think he's mafia or town. At the moment I think Toad is least likely mafia out of the three. I still think it could make sense for you (Toad) to be with either VE or WoS or sandroba but I don't have anything hard to give you in regards to that. lol that didn't take long | ||
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On January 26 2014 10:03 Foolishness wrote: There's no case against me lol If I happened to miss a case against me find it and quote it for me so I can respond to it. There are like 4-5 cases against you. I've posted one, WoS has posted one, gonzaw has posted one, toad has posted one. austin has posted one. | ||
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Anyways, that was from mid-day two, so I'll probably summarize my thoughts in a new post if you want to hold off for that. | ||
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I wish we had a blue role or two. All vanilla setups are so harsh. | ||
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Hopefully I'll have a case summarizing my thoughts by the end of tonight. RIP Gonzaw. Nice showing. | ||
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Going into the cycle, I intended to write a post about how he was mafia due to the lack of strong analysis on why certain players are mafia, unwillingness to reevaluate his read on Wave after 100 posts of new content, the way he seems to be willing to bet the game on marv/austin being town without a hint of concern and his priorities in using his time. All of these concepts still apply. However, I went into the evening more confident than I am now. In the end, I want a chance to at least look at the alternatives another time, mainly toad. I'm frustrated to see that I don't have a great amount of content to provide after spending another 2-3 hours reading. I'm back to work on Monday and I might be pretty busy in the evening, but I'll do the best that I can to put more time into this. | ||
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On January 27 2014 12:45 WaveofShadow wrote: Should I be convinced by this? I dunno, if you're saying that because of meta then Foolishness is likely town, then as I said earlier, the only possible scum from the 'non-confirmed' Foolishness list are you and Toad. Nope, mostly sharing where I'm at internally. I'm still thinking he is mafia, but I'm probably down to 70/30, where as I was like 90/10 previously, though I suppose I just completely made up those numbers. I want to make sure he is the best lynch before committing to him. On January 27 2014 12:45 WaveofShadow wrote: Actually here's a question for you kita. It's a massive meta undertaking and it may be pretty useful (hell maybe I'll do it myself). Does Foolishness have other games where he barely dodges the noose like this? Does he often get lynched as town? I really wish I had thought to look at how he handles high pressure situations to draw the comparison to day one. bah. Maybe I'll take a look again with this in mind, but it's tough to warrant using the time that way if I'm not getting much return. I don't want to get to the point where I'm spending so much time that this game isn't fun anymore. Database shows 0/19 for town lynches. | ||
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marv, where do you stand on the final two mafia? I feel like you have been on the fence for a while. I know I'm guilty of the same thing, but I feel like another perspective may help. Is austin still on your untouchable list? Same question for austin, is marv still untouchable? The reason I'm asking is because we're potentially once cycle away from lylo. Out of the prom, austin, marv group, it seems like Prom has been the least helpful this game, but I'm still having a tough time thinking how a double bus makes sense with him and sandroba. | ||
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On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote: Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you. I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking. At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so? On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote: I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now. I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today. I think this post actually makes a Toad + Foolishness pair more likely. A lot of the time when you see a bus, you'll hear a mafia player say something along of lines of "I've told you guys, but you didn't listen" when the town alternative is about to flip. It could be a case of Toad knowing more than he should, since I think it definitely makes more sense to think that reading Foolishness the next day would be easier than reading the player that got frustrated with the thread and voted himself. | ||
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On January 28 2014 04:06 Toadesstern wrote: [/red][/red]Okay let's give it a try. I'm cooking so I'll f5 every 3 or so minutes but keep that in mind. From your PoV Foolishness is you main suspect. You and I are the ones that ended up voting him. Kita was the one that got Foo into trouble innitially, I know he wasn't the one with the first vote but people started seriously considering him ever after his case. Kita was more than willing to help Gonzaw to get VE lynched. The lynch was between Foo and VE. Toad kept voting Foo, while Kita, the innitiator got off to ensure a VE lynch and help Gonzaw. You are certain that Foo is mafia. This story makes no sense. With marv and Prom afk last lynch, the only way that Foolishness would have been lynched is if gonzaw swapped over, which seemed unlikely mid way through the cycle, especially with the way that VE was acting. I think it was a low risk move if you are mafia with Fool. | ||
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On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: Toad and the question of Meta. I've played three games with Toad which I can remember. Two scum and one town. Toad, scum, Chronotrigger Toad, town, Yet Another... Toad/marv hydra, scum, MTG I Check one thing. The use of rhetorical questions which do not move forward the discussion. They are present in two of the above games and missing in the third. They are likewise missing in this game. Based on this meta read I find Toad town. Likewise I have only ever seen him post a Venn Diagram once, as town, and he is too self-conscious to do so as scum. Meta conclusion: town. I think the meta case is pretty weak here. You can throw out the hydra game because it's a hydra game. After that you're left with a 1 game meta comparison for each alignment. Taking a look at the two games you did highlight, I don't actually pick up on the point you're making. On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: + Show Spoiler + On January 24 2014 07:37 Toadesstern wrote: and when I say that I mean he didn't post after 7:40 at all, which is 20 minutes prior to deadline. I don't think he goes afk 20 minutes prior to deadline if he gets in here and posts at 7:40 so I assume he was there not posting. The lack of posts in that timeframe is something I consider to be really odd and I do see a mafiareasoning behind it. Mafia doesn't want to pile on Sand when Sand was still at 0 or 1 posts at all, why should they. At the same time they don't want to later on either and at the same time mafia certainly doesn't want to defend him either. Sounds like a nice way to get out of that dilemma, just that like I said he happened to have posted just a sec before it happened... Actually now that I think about it, I'd actually put VE even more on the scummy side This post is great (though wrong) I like the way Toad's read evolves as the post goes on. It is indicative of a townie mindset and I rather like the thought in it. Again, wrong, but who cares. I was wrong too. Yet at the same time, Toad seems to fail to apply this point to me. I was on sandroba with no posts on multiple occasions and left the lynch at a later time, although I suppose it's not even clear that toad think's I'm mafia. On January 28 2014 09:03 Promethelax wrote: I know marv had issues with this post but c'mon. It is silly for a townie to not have read his predecessor. It is suicidal for a scummer to not have read his predecessor. A scum will have read teh scum qt and, therefore, some form of the thoughts of the man he is replacing and lying unnecessarily is chump play as scum. Toad is no chump. This post screams town. I'm actually more concerned that marv can't see it than I am about anything Toad has written. I don't find this all that telling about his alignment. I don't think it's a scum tell and I don't think it's a town tell. On January 26 2014 08:15 Toadesstern wrote: This is a thing I've only seen from a town Toad. And it makes sense as a townie thing, it helps to organize your thoughts as to who is suspicious and why. And, as Toad says, he has faced some resistance to it in the past. It has not helped to push lynches and, is therefore unhelpful to a mafia Toad. I'll give him town points for this for looking at the big picture of things, though he hasn't really attempted to argue that I'm mafia based on this conclusion. | ||
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On January 28 2014 09:15 marvellosity wrote: kita, how do you feel about this line of thinking at this stage of the game? I can't imagine his game plan is to essentially not post and think he's going to look good coming out of it. However, I've waited and waited and waited for him to provide an updated analysis of Wave, but at this point, his case is still based off the actions of night one. At this point, I'm not going to be satisfied with one big large case about how he has solved the game because it's too little too late, unless he brings up points that I have honestly not considered that are so compelling that they have to make sense. He must know that he is on the chopping block, but it's hard to say how much time he has. The reason I'm willing to say he is mafia is that the time he does have, he is using it to perform a Prom town analysis, which shows he has no understanding for what the town is looking for out of him. | ||
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On January 28 2014 09:54 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita can you show me the evolution of Toad's read on Foolish? I'm not actually sure what I'm looking at in the Prome casen I could swear that refers to VE Ya, I'm already working on a post. | ||
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On January 24 2014 06:26 Toadesstern wrote: From the people that seem to be worth looking into I really don't see foolishness being mafia. On January 24 2014 07:18 Toadesstern wrote: I agree with foolish's big post and think it's even more unlikely for him to be mafia now. On January 24 2014 08:22 Toadesstern wrote: I don't really see a conundrum on Foolishness to be honest. I'd rather lynch into one of you five guys than Foolish atm. I really do not think he'd behave the way he did before deadline if he knew Sandro was mafia so either he played withough knowing his alignment or he's just town. On January 24 2014 08:45 Toadesstern wrote: do you see a reason for Foolish to post the way he did when he should have known that Sand is mafia, assuming Foolish is mafia as well? Because I don't see one. Why should he defend Sand despite having him as mafia read earlier like when talking to marv over here: On January 24 2014 09:44 Toadesstern wrote: all I wanted to get across is that I don't see a foolishness-riddle or however gonzaw called it and there's no way I'm going to consider him with other people around right now and that he shouldn't be in the same category as WoS / VE / Kita right now. On January 25 2014 01:14 Toadesstern wrote: I'd actually like to take that back. No idea what I was thinking yesterday... Had the whole voteswitch happening over a longer time period in my head and after rereading some of the posts Foolish did I just don't think they're that alignment indicative as it seemed on first look. Like when he mentioned that if he's mafia he has no plan to win because he's limiting the lynch candidates. Same thing can be said about Kita and myself and VE certainly doesn't look like he's having any kind of longterm plan whatsoever either. The exception here's WoS as he still holds firmly on this prom lynch he wants to get, only ever so slightly hinting at maybe being willing to lynch Foolishness a little more but not actually doing so. checking out his filter atm, you'll get something from me in a while. On January 25 2014 04:24 Toadesstern wrote: I did ignore it in general as I was seeing the same thing from foolishness about Sandro and it was so extreme that I just thought it has to be an exaggeration until austin pointed out that is indeed weird. He has been on Sandro for a while, called him mafia and suddendly started calling the lynch bad and wasn't willing to vote him. On January 25 2014 04:36 Toadesstern wrote: the thing is, if foolishness is mafia that explains why he didn't vote Sandro despite being a very shady explanation. If Sandro and Foolish are mafia together Foolish has nothing to lose, it's either him or Sandro to get lynched, might as well just do nothing and hope that in the confusion of voteswitches Prome (assuming he's town) gets into a more favoreable position to be lynched. On January 25 2014 07:45 Toadesstern wrote: I think it makes him look bad to just drop it out of nowhere, without any kind of explanation and to do an almost 180. Just like I said when I answered it from the Sandroba point of view and if what you pointed out in your bigger post is true it's literally the same thing. Want me to repeat it? That's the reason I'm in his filter right now. He did mention BOTH Holy (aka me) and Sandro early, really early and he has been going on about it + Show Spoiler [example] + On January 23 2014 06:59 Foolishness wrote: Yes Yes As I said, my posts always accomplish something (besides the one I posted before this cause you guys frustrate me to no end). You want to run wild theories that's fine by me, but I'm pretty sure you find less mafia than I do. Yes, HolyFlare lynch is good. I find that post to be the prime example of this to be honest. So he thinks Sandro is mafia and very clearly states so, but doesn't vote him, he thinks marv is mafia, he thinks Holy is mafia and I guess he was on prome around that time already? That just doesn't make sense to me and yeah like you said he completly and utterly dropped both Holy and Sandro later on like nothing happened. On January 26 2014 01:34 Toadesstern wrote: there's literally no way for what foolish just said there to be possible. I'm bussing WoS / WoS is bussing me and whoever skates through lylo himself? You've got to be kidding me. And Gonzaw before you even start rambling, no this isn't LI all over again. Like I said to top it off the entire post + Show Spoiler + On January 25 2014 09:35 Foolishness wrote: This is from a while ago, but his posts I saw when I made that post were: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=20#381 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137¤tpage=21#408 And I thought these were fine at the time. A lot of you seem to think that I'm doing things 12 hours after they happened when in reality it's been a lot closer. I saw sandroba and austin both come to the thread and start posting, and I didn't post long after that (a few hours at most). As I said, my mindset was, "well they've been kinda afk so far, but as long as they keep posting I don't have an overwhelming reason to suspect them". Look at my list where I put austin and sandroba in the same category; this is exactly why. Gonzaw kinda brought this up here but let's go through these scenarios cause it's important. Scenario 1 Foolishness is mafia Promethelax is mafia Yes, after seeing that my case on WoS during day 1 didn't have as much merit as I thought at the time, I immediately decided to bus my own teammate. Not only that but I was also under scrutiny in the thread, why would I bring attention to another mafia member when I can push a case on someone else (HolyFlare? Marv maybe?). Better for me to just keep pushing on WoS or pick a new target, no sense is putting two mafia members under scrutiny on day 1. Speaking of HolyFlare, this is off topic from my current explanation but when I went back later on and reread his posts I thought he might be town. I don't even remember why but that's what I thought. I don't like reading into people getting replaced out so I focused my attention elsewhere. If HolyFlare is town I expect Toad to be able to prove it to us sooner and not later. And by sooner I mean end of night 2 at the absolute latest. Secnario 2 Foolishness is Mafia Promethelax is town This is the only scenario out of the three that the town should be worried about as I didn't want to switch to sandroba and even said so straight up (the reason I didn't want to was because I saw Marv move his vote and I was really sketchy about him at the time. I didn't like what I was seeing last minute and I got super scared it was just town derp switching onto another town). But as I pointed out in my earlier posts what is the mafia doing the entirety of day 1 when I'm accumulating votes? As gonzaw pointed out this would only make sense if the entire mafia team (but myself) is afk (so like, HolyFlare also mafia). Furthermore, if I'm mafia and Promethelax is town, then wtf is up with sandroba's vote 30 minutes before the deadline? His post wasn't a mafia post trying to save his buddy, that was a mafia pushing what he perceived to be a safe lynch to make his team look pretty for the future days after I flip town or Promethelax flips town. I think it is even more apparent through the entirety of day 1 as a whole. Where is my mafia team to save me? Are they just afk (we all know mafia games on TL are never that easy)? The only one trying to deflect votes off of me was me. Sure, kitaman and austin both said I was town, but there was never a hard push. It seemed like their attitude was, "yeah Foolishness is town I'm sure, but I got nothing better to propose". Kitaman's push on Promethelax was mediocre at best (in terms of aggressiveness, not content). I was 100% on my own for all of day 1. Scenario 3 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is mafia Why the hell did sandroba push onto Promethelax when he could have easily just been like, "yo guys I've caught Foolishness as mafia in three separate games on day 1/2, this is a free town lynch"? Doesn't make sense. Secnario 4 Foolishness is Town Promethelax is Town I brought this up before, but go back and read sandroba's case on Promethelax. After sandroba's vote both Promethelax and I had 3 votes apiece (if I'm not mistaken here). Mafia were very very very happy with the votes at this time. Town Foolishness is under scrutiny and about to get lynched, and second in line is another town who Foolishness (apparently well-known scumhunter) is 100% convinced is mafia. Wow find me a happier mafia team on day 1 in a normal or all-vanilla game. Sandroba was not throwing his vote down to save someone or push for any lynch. Mafia were happy with who was getting lynched that day and there was no need to do anything about it. THIS NEXT PARAGRAPH IS VERY IMPORTANT Look at this from sandroba's point of view in this scenario. The only people with votes are two townies. He drops his vote on Promethelax with the following mindset. "Let's say Foolishness gets lynched. Sweet, I just push on Promethelax the following day and tell the town, 'yeah guys you fucked that up, Foolishness is best scum-hunter NA we gotta lynch Promethelax now'. Let's say Promethelax gets lynched. Sweet, I just admit my mistake and push Foolishness the following day and tell the town, 'yeah damn sorry about that read, this guy Foolishness is definitely mafia and 100% misled the town into a bad lynch. Many people said that lynch was bad from the beginning we should never have listened to Foolishness'". No matter who got lynched sandroba was in a great position, that is until he himself got lynched instead. Sandroba's vote was not a push to get the town to do something. No, it was lazily cast knowing that both suspects were town and he could ride it through the next day. THIS SHOWS THAT PROMETHELAX IS TOWN Look at all four above scenarios. Scenario 3 makes the least amount of sense cause then sandroba's vote is an awful mistake. Scenario 1 doesn't make sense cause that means I bussed my own teammate (when I could have easily gone after WoS from the start or anyone else) and oh btw also means Promethelax bussed sandroba last minute (keep in mind him and Hapa voted 1 minute apart so in essence they both hammered that vote). The remaining two scenarios both have Promethelax as town. Because he is. Regardless of what you think of me as well, though the above and my earlier posts should prove my innocence as well. If you guys wanna spend 9 hours going down the conspiracy theory hole then cool story bro. Or you can just look at the facts and deduce the following: Town wins if WaveOfShadow, VisceraEyes, Kitaman, and Toad all die. Also my time is very limited today and tomorrow but I will try to be here when I can. What the fuck is that. On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote: ##unvote ##vote Foolishness In general, I find that mafia players prefer to stick to a single target, push the lynch on them until they flip, and then move onto the next target. It's possible for them to change their opinion on a player, but usually it's sudden or out of the blue. If you read through the posts I've pulled regarding Toad's views on Foolishness, he starts off with a strong town read on him, seems to admit that he has had flaws in his analysis, slowly brings Fool into consideration, and then finally comes around to a mafia read. It seems like a natural flow of events, rather than something carefully planned out. However, if Toad actually is town, then I fear we're in trouble because there is someone that I'm overlooking. What do you guys think. Does this seem like a town mindframe or do you think he is shifting his views to fit his agenda? | ||
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On January 28 2014 10:21 WaveofShadow wrote: Still reading. Foolishness for the love of crap, will you please stick around so that people can talk to you? ^ Would definitely like to hear non-prepared thoughts if you're willing to stick around and interact with the thread. Firstly, why was your day 2 push on Wave so terrible? You were going at it without evaluating the majority of his posts, yet was willing to say that you were 95% confident on your read. Did something change in Wave's play during the last 48 hours or were you so confident based on your original argument that you didn't want to reconsider. I'm more interested in how your thoughts changed in regards to Wave, rather than the "there must be 2 scum in this list of 5" idea. | ||
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On January 28 2014 10:54 marvellosity wrote: Patience is in limited supply as is my ability to stay awake much longer when i must go to bed Regardless of his read on you, what do you think about his thoughts on Prom? | ||
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Combinitorics may still live! | ||
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Game solved. | ||
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On January 28 2014 23:42 marvellosity wrote: Lol. O.o Are you actually cancelling your whole case on that small bit of wifom? Is the rest of the case valid to the point where you like it more than the case against toad? | ||
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On January 28 2014 23:52 austinmcc wrote: prome, what was the conspiracy theory you wanted to chat about? Any reason why you don't have a post this cycle? | ||
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On January 24 2014 07:36 austinmcc wrote: I need to reconsider Kita, but I haven't gotten anything very scummy off him. On January 24 2014 08:06 austinmcc wrote: (4) Chat with Kitaman, and get others to talk ABOUT kitaman. A couple posts have mentioned him looking a little worse from the sandro flip (i think?). He has posted some. But overall, just half-following and reading through thread, I don't have a strong sense of him doing stuff recently. That could be entirely wrong, but he's too under the radar for my liking, and I think his alignment and his filter make a good topic of discussion for today. Either we start pressuring him, or he's town and he gets active and gives some good posts, it's a win win to talk about kita more. On January 26 2014 05:35 austinmcc wrote: Kita is entirely off my radar in a bad way, I have not chatted with him today like I wanted to, and when I think of his filter this game, nothing particularly good or bad springs to mind. Is there a reason that you've put so little effort into interacting with me? | ||
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On January 29 2014 01:47 marvellosity wrote: Too many people way too non-committal too close to deadline. When Wave is away and my activity will be patchy once I leave work (exercise/dinner/shower/bf/broken laptop i can't take to bf's etc) Fool mafia. Prome town. Final answer. Gogo lynch. If the lynch happened in 10 minutes, that's where I'd be at. Still want to look at a few more things before I vote. | ||
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On January 29 2014 01:52 austinmcc wrote: Kita, smaller issue than Fool/Prome then. Do you understand what I'm getting at with people saying "activity = town" on WoS? I don't trust Armando. Does he have proof of residence? I understand what you're saying, but is it a concern if Wave's posts actually do look townie, aka he is active and making quality posts? If Prom were to attack Wave's posts as a useless wall of text and then suddenly consider him unlynchable it would be one thing, but he does refer to the posts as decent and involved. | ||
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On January 28 2014 10:13 Foolishness wrote: I was having difficulty finding history on Toad, if there is a game where he is mafia that is more recent I want it. ![[image loading]](http://i57.tinypic.com/23hk4ro.png) On a completely irrelevant note, really? | ||
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On January 29 2014 02:29 Promethelax wrote: Kita, talk to me about what Toad is saying right now. He says that I look bad for something silly. That fool looks good for his huge posts/reads on me/kita/toad in conclusion Toad votes Fool does this mean that Toad is scum or can Toad flip this flop so easily? If Toad can be town while saying these things are the things he is saying true? Should Fool be lynched over prome?If so why? I don't see it as a flip/flop. I have no doubt that Foolishness spent a huge amount of time on those posts. If you don't find yourself wanting to believe he is town to some degree, then something is wrong. Things don't need to need to be black and white, so if Toad finds something suspicious about you, but feels the overall case against Foolishness is stronger, then I'm not as concerned. Are you looking at toad and wondering: "whoa he sure looks confident about me being mafia based on that point he made. Why is he voting Foolishness?" | ||
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On January 29 2014 02:46 marvellosity wrote: This is going nowhere. Are you going to think about anything else austin, or is this somehow the be all and end all? I'm actually quite content to see him consider you in a mafia team. You have been under zero pressure all game, so if you're still around on day three, it's worth exploring. | ||
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On January 29 2014 02:56 marvellosity wrote: In a not-very-game-related fashion, is anyone other than me suddenly really conscious of how they're writing Wave/WoS ever since Wave mentioned it? YES! | ||
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My first concern is that Foolishness doesn't provide these posts until he is the clear number one lynch preference for the thread. Contributing while having the choice to do so to help town and contributing for survival are two different things in my opinion. I know he has spent a lot of time on these posts, but disappearing from the thread, while leaving us hanging on who he thinks the additional mafia player is a concern. I don't put much value into the analysis that I'm town. I'm under little consideration for today's lynch and while it seems insightful, it doesn't have an immediate impact on finding mafia. This is similar to his "Prom is town" analysis where he is making a point that nobody really strongly disagrees with. I would have felt much better if he wrote a brief paragraph about why I'm town and instead used his time to analyze the likely mafia pair with Prom. I'll likely comment about the Toad/Prom cases in another post. + Show Spoiler + On January 26 2014 07:58 Foolishness wrote: Toad seems like he's trying to figure things out, and even if I don't agree with his arguments he's doing things for the town and VE is not. On January 26 2014 08:56 Foolishness wrote: From what I've seen of the past 24 hours Toad's actions seem more congruent than Kitaman's. I will go make sure their posts are in line with this train of thought (keep in mind there are pages I didn't read and some I quickly skimmed through). I also liked what Toad said about VE, but that could just be because I was feeling the same way. And yes, so far I think Toad has the best intentions with his vote. On January 26 2014 07:58 Foolishness wrote: Toad seems like he's trying to figure things out, and even if I don't agree with his arguments he's doing things for the town and VE is not. I can't argue against VE here. I'm very confident about my read on WoS at this point, it will be reevaluated for the following day because he should be lynched asap. On January 26 2014 10:01 Foolishness wrote: Why? Because it shows a townie mindset as he is trying to make connections between possible suspects and figure out what's going on. He's eliminating possibilities to determine who is likely town based on sandroba connections. In the final of the four posts, Foolishness lists the order of events that he takes. During day two, Foolishness mentions several times how Wave and myself are the most likely pair and gives several reasons why he is feeling better about Toad. However, here is where Foolishness actually claims to start: On January 28 2014 10:13 Foolishness wrote: Since WoS was still hovering over my head I decided to start by analyzing Toad, thinking I could prove a connection between him and WoS while showing that Toad is exhibiting his mafia behavior. If you think Wave/Kita is the mafia pair, why are you looking at the Wave/Toad pair first? Isn't that backwards? In fact, why aren't you looking at Wave first and then attempt to draw comparisons if Wave is mafia? Instead, you assume that Wave is mafia and try to find comparisons to support this idea. From my perspective, your suspicions of Wave are based on the events of day one, night one, and early day two. With all of day two to take into account, why aren't you starting there? You state that you are 95% sure on Wave at one point, but how much of Wave's filter had you actually read? Had anything changed from end of day 2 Wave until beginning of day 3 Wave? Not really. I'd feel much better about the analysis if you had came to this conclusion on day 2, rather than come to the conclusion after the thread pretty much agreed that Wave wasn't the best lynch candidate anymore. On January 26 2014 10:08 Foolishness wrote: The people that voted for sandroba are town. WoS is mafia. Kitaman as his partner makes a lot of sense. Furthermore, you state that Wave + Kita makes a lot of sense. However, according to the time frame that you're providing, you state that you didn't take a look at my filter with this pair in mind until after you've made this statement. So essentially you're saying that it makes a lot of sense before actually looking to see if it makes a lot of sense? On January 28 2014 10:13 Foolishness wrote: With my original theory about the day 1 votes going out the window, it was beginning to look like the mafia bussed sandroba. On it's own that seems unlikely. However going back and forth in my head over whether or not it could happen was not productive and not leading me anywhere (it was leading me in the wrong direction). I decided to approach the game from a new angle where I just ignored everything that happened with the day 1 votes. I'm more interested in the angle of "Did sandroba bus Prom?", rather than the other way around. In my opinion, this is the single most relevant piece of information in regards to Prom's alignment, but I don't really see any mention of it. On January 28 2014 10:13 Foolishness wrote: So what's the plan for the town to win the game? Lynch Promethelax, and figure out who is his partner from the remaining unconfirmed (myself included). I'd really like to hear more about this now, even if you can't put in the full time necessary to research it. | ||
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On January 29 2014 04:22 austinmcc wrote: Octavious is mafia. Duh? ![[image loading]](http://static2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120122010713/marveldatabase/images/2/2d/024-Otto_Octavius_(Earth-194111).jpg) | ||
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Brb, 45 mins. | ||
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On January 29 2014 07:43 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Not voted (1): Kitaman27 (!!!!!!!!!!!) Don't get too excited my scummy friends. Back. And trying to catch up with the last few pages. | ||
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On January 29 2014 07:51 WaveofShadow wrote: Toad switch to prome Do eet Kita hurry lol are you switching? | ||
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##Vote Foolishness | ||
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On January 29 2014 07:59 Foolishness wrote: Don't do it just because I'm second in line on town lynch list in Database thread -_- BAHAHAHA GOT YOU! | ||
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On January 29 2014 19:28 marvellosity wrote: Hey kita, thanks for coming and dropping your vote in at the end and not having to take any responsibility, that's real swell of you. Are you trying to infer something here? | ||
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The biggest reason that I was hesitant on my suspicion of Prom after pushing him on day one was the 3-3 vote by sandroba. I saw marv mention that sandroba wasn't a player that likes to bus and I kinda assumed it was true as I didn't spend the time to verify this was true. I spent time looking at how sandroba addresses scum buddies at the beginning of the game with the "@" symbol and didn't come to any conclusions, but I never looked at his early game voting record. I'm pretty upset with myself considering what I have found: On January 21 2012 13:56 sandroba wrote: Fucking hell I had no time to post properly sorry guys =( On January 17 2012 11:08 sandroba wrote: Also L I recognize that type of play from last game. Who the fuck you think is scum? Nice blabbering and walls of nothing. I'd be up for a L lynch aswel. On January 18 2012 03:27 sandroba wrote: Still I feel way more confident lynching GGQ or L. Double lynch needs at least 9 more votes to go through and I'd really like to get at least one red killed today. sandroba and L are scum buddies this game. On October 21 2011 08:02 sandroba wrote: ##Vote: sinani206 Provides no case, but votes for his scum buddy sinani. On July 04 2011 01:22 sandroba wrote: Seriously though, we should lynch a townie today. ##Unvote ##Vote: Fishball On July 04 2011 16:34 sandroba wrote: My assumpstion was that people would change their vote due to the quick bandwagon on fishball. Unfortunatelly that's not how it turned out. I had to take a huge risk to have any possibility of winning this =P Scum buddies with Fishball in a 2 player game. Votes him on day one without much of a case and shows he is willing to take risks early. On March 03 2012 06:37 sandroba wrote: I'm not lurking, I just don't have the same amount of time that I used to have to play mafia and make big posts. On March 03 2012 03:47 sandroba wrote: Unvote ##Vote:TheToast Day one vote against his scum buddy. No case, limited time from sandroba. On June 30 2011 17:20 sandroba wrote: What the hell, why are you guys voting fishball? The optimal plan is to hang RoL first, let fishball get another check or get shot by the mafia. Then, if he's still alive we hang him day3. Hanging fishball first is just dumb imo. ##Vote: RebirthofLegend There is a dt check on RoL here, but votes are coming in on the dt instead, yet sandroba votes his buddy. On December 19 2011 16:33 sandroba wrote: So I tried to push annul half heatedly in a slightly scummy way to actually dissuade the people that thought I was scum from voting him, while not really convincing others that didn't find me scummy to vote him. I really had no option but to post very little and don't add much content to annul's case. Had I pushed it full strength I'm pretty sure he would have been lynched day 2 and my team didn't want that. Look at sandroba's explanation for his day two bus on his scum buddy annul. This sounds incredibly similar to this game. Not only is sandroba willing to bus early, he actually does it more often than not! | ||
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austin, do you think think Prom + marv is the best pair, under that assumption that Prom flips mafia 100% of the time? | ||
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On January 30 2014 03:11 WaveofShadow wrote: Kita you should have saved that for the resolution period. I'd rather spend the extra time looking if a Prom pair makes sense. It's pretty likely that Prom was in the top two lynch list to begin with, so it's not like I'm introducing a new mafia suspect and opening myself up to a night kill. If you had to pair someone with Prom, where are you at? I suppose I'd understand if you wanted to wait to answer so mafia doesn't pick people off based on their response, but if you get shot based on your answer, I'll have more time so I'm not entirely concerned. | ||
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On January 30 2014 03:42 marvellosity wrote: kita: alright, will do. just popping in pre-exercise at the moment though. mmk, if at all possible I'd like a chance to evaluate your response before the night hits. | ||
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On January 23 2014 07:06 marvellosity wrote: Kinda curious that Fool has 4 ppl as likely mafia (Prome, holy, me, sand) but...willing to test him on sand for now. ##Vote: sandroba I'll start off looking at marv's initial vote on sandroba. Does it sound like marv is really pushing hard to convince the threat that sandroba is the best lynch here? Instead, he argues that the vote is to test Foolishness, but I think it's pretty clear that this point that Prom is Fool's preferred lynch. Is it possible that he is trying to throw dirt on a town Foolishness for not switching over to a player that will eventually flip mafia? He argues that the sandroba lynch isn't going anywhere when he unvotes, but is there even any push here? Compare this to a town marv, where he is willing to call out specific individuals on why they are not voting with him. Earlier in the thread, marv mentions how town isn't going to ignore him when is vote is on Foolishness. Then why does he appear fine to have town ignore him when his vote is on sandroba? On January 23 2014 07:26 marvellosity wrote: So Fool and sand are both on Prome i don't like that lynch very much. On January 23 2014 07:41 marvellosity wrote: There's two very smelly people on the Prome wagon and sandroba aint flying because mysteriously he's not a good lynch to fool ##unvote ##vote: Foolishness Note how marv doesn't show a willingness to lynch Foolishness because he has a strong mafia read on him. He is voting to lynch Foolishness because he doesn't like the people that are on the Prom wagon. This is a really round-about way to justify a vote. The only issue that marv finds concerning with his play is his statement regarding sandroba. He attacks Fool for defending sandroba, a player whose alignment is unknown. On January 25 2014 00:54 marvellosity wrote: Why is everyone finding Fool scummy just as I'm finding him townie? It's like suddenly people are hyper aware of what he did on Day 1 now even though that was sometime ago, and no-one cares so much about anything since. However, something strange happens when sandroba flips. marv drops the case against the player he wanted to lynch up to 10 minutes before the flip. If marv thinks Foolishness is mafia for defending a player of an unknown alignment, why is he suddenly feeling better about Foolishness defending a player of mafia alignment? Wouldn't this strengthen his original case? He mentioned that the vote analysis changed his mind, but you can throw together one of those as mafia in a heartbeat. Furthermore, I sense little worry about the consequences of flipping a town Foolishness from marv. On March 11 2013 01:08 marvellosity wrote: Ver pretty explicitly said he wouldn't have much time for the game until Monday as well. And yet Acro actually has his vote on him; he wants to kill potentially one of town's strongest assets. On March 11 2013 12:17 marvellosity wrote: So we wait on Foolish, and Ver On March 12 2013 11:50 marvellosity wrote: Foolishness is a liar and quite possibly mafia but that will have to wait. Take a look at how marv approaches the suspicious play of Foolishness and Ver in Personality Mafia 2 on day one. He is willing to take the wait and see approach knowing that Foolishness has the ability to bust the game open once there is enough to work with. I also brought up the comparison to the champions game, where he urged to thread to be patient with Foolishness as he is a "notoriously slow starter". In this game, however, he immediately pushes him for content and is willing to flip foolishness off a single point, rather than a compelling case. I want to discuss how marv handles Prom on day one, as he is the main alternative to the lynch. On January 23 2014 06:27 marvellosity wrote: kita: I think your first and last paragraphs contain your best points, I'm going to reread on that basis now I think On January 23 2014 07:08 marvellosity wrote: eh keep getting distracted. Shall go hunt. On January 23 2014 07:26 marvellosity wrote: So Fool and sand are both on Prome i don't like that lynch very much. In the part of Prome's filter where he attacked Fool and then voted kita which didn't make very much sense to me given he was apparently suspicious of Fool earlier, but now he's back voting Fool which makes more sense. Kinda confusing actually On January 23 2014 07:56 marvellosity wrote: right now i like a not-prome lynch Earlier in the cycle, he had Prom in his top three and Foolishness was not. I asked marv twice to read my case against Prom on day one. He acknowledges that there are good points to my case, confirms that he displays some questionable play, and then concludes that he does not want a Prom lynch, without a clear explanation. Here is how the lynch stands when the flip is starting to take place. Foolishness (5): VisceraEyes, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli Promethelax (3): Foolishness, Kitaman27, Sandroba Sandroba (2): gonzaw, austin marv has a choice here: stay firm on Foolishness and take a risk that a swing happens, leaving him out to dry or swap to sandroba. If he switches to sandroba, Hapa AND prom would need to join him for sandroba to flip. If sandroba flips, then VE, Wave, Foolishness, and myself all look bad, while he can ride the town cred up until this point. If Foolishness flips, then whoever remained on the town player would look terrible and he could say that he tried to flip to sandroba. It seems like a easy choice at this point. Something that I happened to pick up on when reading through his filter was how extremely non-committal his views are of myself. Here are a group of posts that I picked out: On January 22 2014 01:55 marvellosity wrote: you have a lot of funny questions in your filter kita. On January 22 2014 02:15 marvellosity wrote: I dunno yet. I find quite a few of kita's questions odd (especially taken all together), but I dunno if it's scummy-odd or just kita-odd atm. On January 22 2014 05:31 marvellosity wrote: Just popping in between exercise and dinner, i'll go find kita's stuff a bit later. On January 22 2014 07:33 marvellosity wrote: None of these by themselves really suggests that much, but there's so many of them. All leading, or weirdly phrased, or kinda obvious questions. Odd. On January 22 2014 08:42 marvellosity wrote: Apparently I'm seeing ghosts with kita, I'll come back to that (or not) later. On January 22 2014 09:12 marvellosity wrote: kita was clearly suspicious of gonzaw earlier on (aka "contributions without being a contribution") and to then keep nitpicking at gonzaw's case when kita's vote is on the same person is... strange to say the least On January 23 2014 06:33 marvellosity wrote: Could be attractive, but i don't like his shoes mofo: kitaman27 On January 22 2014 23:17 marvellosity wrote: I should probably go remind myself what kita's mafia games look like. On January 23 2014 08:07 marvellosity wrote: Fool/kita/Prome/WoS are others for various reasons. I'll probably chat at length about it tomorrow. On January 24 2014 00:36 marvellosity wrote: I'll go look at kita instead. On January 24 2014 01:10 marvellosity wrote: kita's approach to sandroba seems pretty weird. On January 24 2014 01:10 marvellosity wrote: I hate how kita approached the lynch + deadline stuff in general, but it's kinda mitigated by the fact that flicking through his filter, there seems to be a genuine crapload of effort in there, just looking at players in depth. Don't think I'd lynch kita over VE atm. On January 24 2014 10:12 marvellosity wrote: I wanna revisit kita's long post tomorrow because it read quite well but I didn't get the same feels from it as I did Fool's post, and I want to know why, if there's a reason or if I'm just rabidly anti-kita because kita. (<3) On January 25 2014 01:06 marvellosity wrote: kita is oddly on the sidelines. On January 25 2014 02:29 marvellosity wrote: kita is more interesting, if Wave has things to do first then that'll probably line up with when I get around to looking at kita again. Although I kinda want to wait until kita has done his latest round of posting. On January 25 2014 22:43 marvellosity wrote: I'm more suspicious of kita than Wave, although not massively suspicious of either right now. On January 26 2014 22:59 marvellosity wrote: Still banking on 2 mafia being in toad+fool+kita, finding it really hard to see any other options. On January 27 2014 21:38 marvellosity wrote: I've not played that many games with kita and the ones I have (or observed) I've struggled with his alignment too. This could be fun :D On January 29 2014 19:28 marvellosity wrote: Hey kita, thanks for coming and dropping your vote in at the end and not having to take any responsibility, that's real swell of you. Count how many times marv calls me "odd" or "strange" without actually comitting to calling me mafia. Also, count how many times marv states that he is going to "look into kita" and then returns with an actual read. Yet, even in all this "confusion" I'm still appearing in most of his lynch lists even though he has never came to a mafia conclusion. Is my play such an enigma that he is incapable of presenting a single solid read? If everyone else seems to think it's pretty clear that I'm town, why is marv the last one to pick up on it? | ||
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On January 30 2014 07:56 marvellosity wrote: that's because you are odd and strange kita. I suppose I'll take that over Foolishness's proof that I'm mentally insane -_- | ||
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On February 01 2014 05:07 austinmcc wrote: PLUS I WAS TOTALLY RIGHT AND IF THEY'D LYNCHED ME THEY WOULD HAVE LOST DONT BELIEVE HIM! I CAN TOTALLY WIN WITH TOWN NOW THAT I'VE GOT THE TARDIS!!! + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://static3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120204130848/tardis/images/b/be/Series5weepingangels.jpg) | ||
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GGs | ||
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On February 06 2014 09:14 Foolishness wrote: Of particular interest would be the video here where I explain the behavioral analysis process and how to go about it, using Kitaman as an example (thank god I was right about his alignment). Toad would have been ecstatic if someone dedicated an hour to talking just about him. He dreams about that kind of stuff. On February 06 2014 10:04 gonzaw wrote: WHY DO PEOPLE ALWAYS CALL ME GUN-SAW ITS WEIRD AS FUCK I found it kinda funny that when Foolishness said Kita (rhymes with Cheetah), he got it right, but whenever he refereed to me as kitaman, the pronunciation randomly changed. Also, let it be known that one line posts mean I'm confirmed town. Foolishness has spoken. The blatant anti-mafia database propaganda was concerning, but I'm willing to forgive him for his ignorance. Overall, I thought the analysis was pretty spot on. I can think of certain games that could have led him to the exact opposite conclusion if he happened to read those filters, so I think the most important thing with a meta read is that you base it off a reliable sample, rather than draw conclusions based off a 1 game comparison. It's too bad day three turned out to be Foolishness vs Prom, rather than Foolishness vs marv. | ||
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On February 18 2014 10:02 Promethelax wrote: 7. Kitaman27 -An all around excellent player who I know very little about personally. I have played only one game with him which is worth counting Heh you're the third person to say that recently. It's funny to see people that have been around for years and then realize that you haven't really actually played with them. I think it was iamp that brought up the fact that over my 40 games and his 20 games, we had overlapped liked twice. Apparently I only join the oddball games XD | ||
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