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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:26 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:20 kitaman27 wrote:On January 26 2014 07:17 gonzaw wrote:On January 26 2014 07:14 kitaman27 wrote:
Well Foolishness is voting VE no matter what this cycle. He just isn't ready to admit it.
Me and gonzaw would be enough to decide the lynch either way, assuming that VE doesn't end the cycle off by himself. Hmm, yeah, we are both voting VE, so we can end the lynch on Foo if we want. You think there's something wrong with a VE+Foo scum team perhaps? I initially thought it'd be kind of impossible, since VE parked his vote on Foo on D1 and kept it there doing nothing, even with Foo gaining 6 votes. But well.....scum be scum perhaps? There was the interaction at the beginning of the game where VE and Hapa were going at it and Foolishness interjected saying "lol you're both town". You think that happens as scum to scum? Hmm. Foo has been calling VE town the whole game without flinching basically. Except when he put him in the "scum is in these 4" bag.
Well apparently now VE is 90% mafia.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
If we lynch down Foolishness's line of scum players, would he win as mafia?
9 remaining
VE lynch + shot
7 remaining
Toad lynch + shot
5 remaining lylo
Wave lynch + shot
3 remaining
I'm guessing mafia in those three. Essentially it would mean he would likely have to beat me in lylo with someone like marv/austin as the third?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:18 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:14 kitaman27 wrote:
Well Foolishness is voting VE no matter what this cycle. He just isn't ready to admit it.
Me and gonzaw would be enough to decide the lynch either way, assuming that VE doesn't end the cycle off by himself. In fact, are you ready to move your vote back VE?
Do you plan to return to keep your vote where it is?
If so, would appreciate a reply to save our time.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Didn't you want to lynch Holy before sandroba? Has Toad's play changed your mind on him or is it just that WoS's and VE's play is just much worse since then?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:54 gonzaw wrote:
kita, you here for a possible switch or something? You believe we should keep the lynch on VE now, or do some shenannies?
If VE is unwilling to return to save himself, then I don't think we should bother trying to save him.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 07:57 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 07:54 gonzaw wrote:
kita, you here for a possible switch or something? You believe we should keep the lynch on VE now, or do some shenannies? If VE is unwilling to return to save himself, then I don't think we should bother trying to save him.
Do you agree with this?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 08:00 VisceraEyes wrote:
Still town. Gg friends.
Sigh, asked you three times to at least give us the Foolishness option -_-
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 08:31 gonzaw wrote:
kita, what do you make of this flip?
makes me wish we were on foolishness
I'm going to reread austin and marv for the sake of making sure that I'm not missing the big picture.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 08:14 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2014 08:09 gonzaw wrote:
Foo, right now these are your "scum suspects": Toad/kita/WOS.
Choose the scum between them based on this lynch. Now WoS/Kita.
On January 26 2014 07:40 Foolishness wrote:
In terms of actual connections between I haven't done a thorough analysis to say "these two players could be a likely pair". One thing I did take notice of was that in day 1 Kitaman was pushing hard for sandroba (and voted for sandroba twice during the day). I think this says something because why would Kitaman be drawing so much attention to his obviously semi-inactive mafia teammate (especially on day 1, and especially on a player who is known for being inactive as mafia)? Because of this I don't find Kitaman likely to be mafia with sandroba.
For the remaining three players I could potentially see any of them being together at this point. I haven't read Toad's filter closely, and everytime I read HolyFlare's I go back and forth on whether I think he's mafia or town. At the moment I think Toad is least likely mafia out of the three. I still think it could make sense for you (Toad) to be with either VE or WoS or sandroba but I don't have anything hard to give you in regards to that.
lol that didn't take long
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 26 2014 10:03 Foolishness wrote:
There's no case against me lol
If I happened to miss a case against me find it and quote it for me so I can respond to it.
There are like 4-5 cases against you.
I've posted one, WoS has posted one, gonzaw has posted one, toad has posted one. austin has posted one.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I'm guessing you'd be able to pick out the one I'm referring to. (It's the one that says Foolishness is mafia in bold red text)
Anyways, that was from mid-day two, so I'll probably summarize my thoughts in a new post if you want to hold off for that.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Uhh oh gonzaw, I think he might have just put a hit on you 
I wish we had a blue role or two. All vanilla setups are so harsh.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I'm probably going to watch the Pro Bowl (I wouldn't be offended if you wanted to policy lynch me off of that).
Hopefully I'll have a case summarizing my thoughts by the end of tonight.
RIP Gonzaw. Nice showing.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I ended up coming to my senses and skipped the pro bowl. I read through Foolishness's filter like three times and like 12 of his past games. While there was one mafia game on his which showed a focus on vote analysis over scum hunting, I also found several town games where he was happy to provide a list of players that likely contained the remaining mafia and lynch off that. I had anticipated that as mafia he was more likely to bully reads, but I didn't get a strong sense of that after reading. I did find once instance where he failed to acknowledge the existing cases against him, though I don't really want to read into that much,
Going into the cycle, I intended to write a post about how he was mafia due to the lack of strong analysis on why certain players are mafia, unwillingness to reevaluate his read on Wave after 100 posts of new content, the way he seems to be willing to bet the game on marv/austin being town without a hint of concern and his priorities in using his time. All of these concepts still apply. However, I went into the evening more confident than I am now. In the end, I want a chance to at least look at the alternatives another time, mainly toad. I'm frustrated to see that I don't have a great amount of content to provide after spending another 2-3 hours reading. I'm back to work on Monday and I might be pretty busy in the evening, but I'll do the best that I can to put more time into this.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 27 2014 12:45 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2014 12:24 kitaman27 wrote:
I ended up coming to my senses and skipped the pro bowl. I read through Foolishness's filter like three times and like 12 of his past games. While there was one mafia game on his which showed a focus on vote analysis over scum hunting, I also found several town games where he was happy to provide a list of players that likely contained the remaining mafia and lynch off that. I had anticipated that as mafia he was more likely to bully reads, but I didn't get a strong sense of that after reading. I did find once instance where he failed to acknowledge the existing cases against him, though I don't really want to read into that much,
Going into the cycle, I intended to write a post about how he was mafia due to the lack of strong analysis on why certain players are mafia, unwillingness to reevaluate his read on Wave after 100 posts of new content, the way he seems to be willing to bet the game on marv/austin being town without a hint of concern and his priorities in using his time. All of these concepts still apply. However, I went into the evening more confident than I am now. In the end, I want a chance to at least look at the alternatives another time, mainly toad. I'm frustrated to see that I don't have a great amount of content to provide after spending another 2-3 hours reading. I'm back to work on Monday and I might be pretty busy in the evening, but I'll do the best that I can to put more time into this. Should I be convinced by this? I dunno, if you're saying that because of meta then Foolishness is likely town, then as I said earlier, the only possible scum from the 'non-confirmed' Foolishness list are you and Toad.
Nope, mostly sharing where I'm at internally. I'm still thinking he is mafia, but I'm probably down to 70/30, where as I was like 90/10 previously, though I suppose I just completely made up those numbers. I want to make sure he is the best lynch before committing to him.
On January 27 2014 12:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
Actually here's a question for you kita. It's a massive meta undertaking and it may be pretty useful (hell maybe I'll do it myself).
Does Foolishness have other games where he barely dodges the noose like this? Does he often get lynched as town?
I really wish I had thought to look at how he handles high pressure situations to draw the comparison to day one. bah. Maybe I'll take a look again with this in mind, but it's tough to warrant using the time that way if I'm not getting much return. I don't want to get to the point where I'm spending so much time that this game isn't fun anymore. Database shows 0/19 for town lynches.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
For someone who says that every post of his has a purpose, those were pretty useless. If they were addressed towards austin. you or myself, then I'd wouldn't mind it as much, but if he is still suspicious of gonzaw by day three, then he isn't paying attention.
marv, where do you stand on the final two mafia? I feel like you have been on the fence for a while. I know I'm guilty of the same thing, but I feel like another perspective may help.
Is austin still on your untouchable list? Same question for austin, is marv still untouchable? The reason I'm asking is because we're potentially once cycle away from lylo. Out of the prom, austin, marv group, it seems like Prom has been the least helpful this game, but I'm still having a tough time thinking how a double bus makes sense with him and sandroba.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking.
At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so?
On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:
I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now.
I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today.
I think this post actually makes a Toad + Foolishness pair more likely. A lot of the time when you see a bus, you'll hear a mafia player say something along of lines of "I've told you guys, but you didn't listen" when the town alternative is about to flip. It could be a case of Toad knowing more than he should, since I think it definitely makes more sense to think that reading Foolishness the next day would be easier than reading the player that got frustrated with the thread and voted himself.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On January 28 2014 04:06 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 03:50 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 28 2014 03:37 Toadesstern wrote:On January 28 2014 03:18 WaveofShadow wrote:Let us talk about Toad for a sec. On January 28 2014 01:33 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2014 00:56 marvellosity wrote:
Fool+Toad is where i'm sitting. Not 100% confident in either so maybe trying to eliminate outliers will help... namely you.
I think that's the most likely pair right now, but there is some degree of distancing between the two. Toad is attacking Foolishness, while Foolishness wants to bring Toad to lylo. I'll need to see if it seems likely that Toad is pushing the Foolishness lynch with the hopes of winning a 2v1 endgame, if he is town and has a legitimate scum read on Fool, or if he is mafia with another player that we're overlooking. At one point foolishness argues that we shouldn't consider lynching sandroba, while Holy is still around. Do you think it makes sense to attack one inactive scum buddy, while defending the other, which could be a risk if the wrong one flips first? Or is it more likely that he simply doesn't see Holy flipping that cycle after the replacement has been announced so he feels safe doing so? On January 26 2014 07:39 Toadesstern wrote:
I'm kind of busy right now and only f5'in inbetween. I've told you guys to get on Foo, I told you multiple times so far and it's been ignored. I don't have the time to make a case right now.
I DO think Foolishness is the way better lynch though and I DO think that reading VE tomorrow will be easier than today. I think this post actually makes a Toad + Foolishness pair more likely. A lot of the time when you see a bus, you'll hear a mafia player say something along of lines of "I've told you guys, but you didn't listen" when the town alternative is about to flip. It could be a case of Toad knowing more than he should, since I think it definitely makes more sense to think that reading Foolishness the next day would be easier than reading the player that got frustrated with the thread and voted himself. This kind of post is what makes me think kita is town (along with that one I mentioned earlier, the long one). How easy is a post like this to make when he's talking about theoretical mafia POV? From a town perspective it sounds like a completely realistic mafia perspective but so much that it sounds fishy. Am I explaining this right? Essentially it truly sounds as though this is town trying to explain things from mafia POV rather than mafia explaining mafia POV. A lot of Toad's posts around that point (which I mentioned and Toad and I argued about briefly) just reekOn January 26 2014 03:21 Toadesstern wrote:
See I don't even mind that WoS vote but I really think Foolishness is the much better option today. The guy makes sense whenever he posts but as soon as he comes to some conclusion Sandro bad lynch despite having Sandro in his scumreads earlier on / WoS + Toad scumteam despite me voting WoS at that time and still harboring fuzzy feelings for him (not in a romantic way) it just goes batshit crazy.
He doesn't even feel the need to explain his mafiareads and instead writes wall of texts about his relationship with prome.
Like I said, I don't mind that WoS vote one bit but do you really think he's a better lynch than foolishness? All it looked like around this point in the day was him trying to get himself out of the 'strong scumread' on me based on his horrible case on post earlier. He tries to defend/explain himself here, but it just doesn't jive with me On January 26 2014 04:35 Toadesstern wrote:On January 26 2014 04:29 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 26 2014 04:26 VisceraEyes wrote:On January 26 2014 04:24 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ok a few thigns:
VE wtf was that vote on me? I don;t even understand your reasoning for it. Because I think you're town and no one else does? Is that it?
As far as marv;s argument, the problem is not only would you be comparing mafia to town mindset, you also have to remember that VE and I are two different people. My motivation has been ridiculously on this game not only because I'm not and want to win, but because of the game itself. Marv you remember me asking you pre-game if I should even play in this game? Part of my motivation this game is to show myself (and others) that I deserve to be in here. In any other game I highly doubt I would be spending such a great deal of the free time I barely have to post in massive bursts. VE may not be similarly motivated as town (or obviously as scum).
Now as for Foolishness, call me dumb but I'm starting to worry about how quickly it's being picked up. Especially by people like Toad. And even then if I'm right and Foolishness truly is mafia, is everybody going to be bamboozled by him again when he comes back with an hour to go and posts a flashy essay? It was that and the fact that Hapa suspected you and died - but gonzaw pointed out that he posted his suspicion AFTER the scum had made their shot, so it comes back to the "he's the only one who's right about me" which is NOT a strong enough point to lynch imo. It'd be pretty ballsy (if I'm right about you) as scum to be the only one. Hapa's suspicion is a stronger point if anything and I'll grant you that, but surprisingly nobody brought it up. And his case on me was vastly different than anyone else's I believe---I think it actually wasn't terrible. So, is Toad's voteswitch authentic or is he trying to jump off a losing train early and trying to gain some towncred on a bus? On January 24 2014 08:13 Toadesstern wrote:On January 24 2014 08:07 Promethelax wrote:
So hapa has
WoS
VE
Holy
Fool
as scummy. I was hoping he had a clear target before the resolution deadline that would have suggested that he was killed to push a single lynch.
In terms of history: marv or I are the most likely to kill Hapa as scum n1 I think. I actually disagree. Quick check through his filter, ignoring his last post because it was before deadline, will show up WoS a lot more than anyone else, especially if you compare it to VE who would be the one to show up more in Gonzaw's filter. So as I'm still going with the WoS and VE both look really bad, especially given that they both equally failed to do anything d1 deadline ( clicky! here to see why that's an issue I'd lean on WoS even more now. ##vote WoS you're welcome. Also wtf is that kind of a question. I'm getting cold feet here as I'm seeing you and VE on the same guy I want lynched and you have the balls to call Foolishness 100% mafia and say it's either a bus from me or a townie being right? Sure I think Foolishness is the best lynch but I wouldn't have the balls to call it that 100% certain oO Also when I voted foolish it was 2-2-2 in votes. I might be called the reason you're "wagon" is losing steam, again you're welcome Like all of Toad's activity since that point feels like subtle buddying/apologizing to me for earlier D2 to get me off of him, and it actually kind of worked for a while. yes I've been trying to be nice to you and you can call that buddying, but it's obviously a gross misrepresentation given that I still think you're scummy and still don't understand why Gonzaw thought you're town. You seem to be conveniently forgetting that part when talking about how I'm "buddying" you. Do me a favor and don't just read my filter, open those posts and look at those posts in context, especially read your own posts as well to get an idea. You were emotional, I tried to talk to you, you got super angry for no reason, you got pissed for no reason and you've been screaming and kicking in the thread whenever someone mentioned your name without praising you. I'm certaintly not buddying you, I'm ignoring you while you're impossible to talk to, may that be because you're faking emotions or because you're actually emotional. There was literally no point in talking to you so I stopped the hardcourse and instead tried a more relaxed approach to figure out if you'd still keep on doing that or if you'd chill down. If you look at my posts you'll find the exact same approach everytime someone posts emotional for an extended period, in this game for example VE. People are different and telling someone who's clearly screaming like a 5 year old to cool down while keeping pressure on them might be something gonzaw likes as an approach and it may work on a select few people but I think it's usually pointless. So yes I've been posting nicer when talking with you but I certainly wasn't buddying you. Gonzaw explained pretty damn clearly why he thought I was town, whether you believe it or not is another thing. Apparently you still think I'm scummy despite your change of direction and attack on Foolishness (which was in itself a soft defense of me at the time given what the thread was up to)? Go on, Toad, let's hear what still makes me scummy. I'm all ears. Okay let's give it a try. I'm cooking so I'll f5 every 3 or so minutes but keep that in mind. From your PoVFoolishness is you main suspect. You and I are the ones that ended up voting him. Kita was the one that got Foo into trouble innitially, I know he wasn't the one with the first vote but people started seriously considering him ever after his case. Kita was more than willing to help Gonzaw to get VE lynched. The lynch was between Foo and VE. Toad kept voting Foo, while Kita, the innitiator got off to ensure a VE lynch and help Gonzaw. You are certain that Foo is mafia. This story makes no sense. [/red][/red]
With marv and Prom afk last lynch, the only way that Foolishness would have been lynched is if gonzaw swapped over, which seemed unlikely mid way through the cycle, especially with the way that VE was acting. I think it was a low risk move if you are mafia with Fool.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Agreed. Activity has really fallen off for several individuals.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Is that where you are at on me toad as well? Mafia no matter what?
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EPT
