[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 2

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 16:32 GMT

#354

Since you were arguing that Prom's case could just as easily apply to Wave, as yourself, do you think it's a valid point against WoS or a bad argument to begin with?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 16:50 GMT

#361

How much time did you spend looking into Foolishness's history gonzaw? Additionally, what is the point of posting a guide on how to read Foolishness? If you point out his scum qualities before he has any actual posts, do you expect him to read your guide and then get caught anyways? Do you think this was an efficient use of your town as a player who hasn't even read the thread?

When I think of a player that gets off to a trolly start as town, Foolishness is one of the first people to come to mind so I disagree with your assessment based on the posts that you have cherry picked.

I'm still content with my vote on him however based on activity.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 17:07 GMT

#369

On January 22 2014 01:54 marvellosity wrote:
kita, you're vaguely insinuating things, is that where you're leaving it?

gonzaw made a meta analysis post without relating it to the current game. I'm perfectly fine with a post aimed to motivate Foolishness to help town, but gonzaw has the largest post in the thread and it serves zero value aka "contributing without making a contribution", which is generally a mafia trait.

On January 22 2014 01:59 gonzaw wrote:
If you vote him based on activity that's actually more lame. Town Foo isn't super active as marv either.

Doesn't this contradict your earlier posts about Foolishness's absence from the thread?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 17:16 GMT

#371

On January 22 2014 02:15 marvellosity wrote:

Show nested quote +

I dunno yet. I find quite a few of kita's questions odd (especially taken all together), but I dunno if it's scummy-odd or just kita-odd atm.

Well I'm certain not kitaman28.

LOL GET IT?! THAT WOULD BE EVEN INSTEAD OF ODD.

I'm so funny.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 17:30 GMT

#382

On January 22 2014 02:21 VisceraEyes wrote:

Show nested quote +

Making up bullshit justification is totes fine, and not at all out of character for Prome, you're probably right.

This is almost becoming border-line "such an overreaction that it might be scum to scum." I'm currently leaning town-town as well, which would make me the third to say as much. That probably doesn't bode well for us -_-

Hi Sandroba! Any of those first posts interest you?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 17:34 GMT

#387

On January 22 2014 02:31 VisceraEyes wrote:
Kita gosh was there a point to that other than "VE stop talking about Prom or I'll think you're suspicious"?

Not really.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 17:35 GMT

#388

On January 22 2014 02:34 kitaman27 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Not really.

Sometimes I talk to myself out loud. Like right now.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 18:10 GMT

#392

On January 22 2014 02:45 gonzaw wrote:
kita, either you didn't fully understand the purpose of my post....or you are posting some weird stuff (I fail to see how my post can be scum oriented in any way, or how I made the post "without relating it to the current game", when I mention exactly how it relates to it even by quoting 70% of Foo's posts this game)

I guess it has to do with the fact that the meta analysis was applied to a player with three posts, which I wouldn't be very confident in based on the sample size. If you come to the conclusion that a town Foolishness will eventually attempt to have a helpful attitude and start to scumhunt, yet you think a vote on him until the point where he does so is lame, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish. If you prefer a wait and see attitude, then why not save your meta post until he has something to go by and then come to a conclusion then?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 18:16 GMT

#394

I haven't spent much time looking at Wave yet, aside from a couple filter dives, though I don't believe I had a scum read on him at any point. He had a series of uninteresting questions, but that seems to be a common trend in his town games, so I felt it was worth dropping.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 21:31 GMT

#436

On January 22 2014 01:59 gonzaw wrote:
If you vote him based on activity that's actually more lame. Town Foo isn't super active as marv either.

On January 22 2014 06:28 gonzaw wrote:
You can play the "aw aww he has too little posts we can't do anything until he posts more!" card all you want but I call bullshit. It's his move now to convince me (us) into changing our votes.

##Vote: Foolishness

Could you explain to me how these two posts differ?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 21:40 GMT

#439

On January 22 2014 06:35 gonzaw wrote:
Not sure I follow.
The posts differ....ehmm..because they have different letters and words?
You said you voted Foo' ONLY because of his activity (that's what I understood). That's kind of lame, compared to everything else said.

Are you saying that your vote isn't for activity? If you trying to say that you case has merit, rather than you're voting him because he hasn't produced content, than I think you might be mafia. You can't honestly tell me that you're confident about your vote.

On January 22 2014 06:35 gonzaw wrote:
Anyways kita, I'd like a response for this:

I think your guide is irrelevant to this game. Maybe it would be a nice post game thought, but you can't apply it yet. You're a math guy. Surely you understand the concept of sample size. How can you be confident about your meta read based on a couple of intro posts?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 21:58 GMT

#441

On January 22 2014 06:54 austinmcc wrote:
mainly it feels like a topic that allows mafia to freely post and keep discussion on Foolishness.

Is this directed at any individual in specific or are you just suggesting that the opportunity is there?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 21 2014 22:48 GMT

#463

On January 22 2014 07:33 marvellosity wrote:
What I actually find suspicious of kita in light of recent posts is how he's attacking gonzaw. gonzaw has been looking pretty town to me lately, he's eager, lots of big posts, he's commenting on a lot of players, he's suspicious of a lot of players with decent grounds, and yet kita is nitpicking at him for his vote on Foolish compared to kita's. That's unnatural and it's not how I'm viewing the game and it doesn't feel right at all.

From the start of the game to the point where he votes Foolishness and I comment on him, this is what he has commented on regarding other players:

"Why the hell does WOS post "Welp" so many times? :/"

"Like, I'm reading WOS posts and they seem kind of fine; except some pointless questions" (Originally posted by me)

A valid post questioning Holy's defense of Foolishness.

Now you say that you are suspicious of me for my attack on gonzaw due to the fact that "he's suspicious of a lot of players with decent grounds"

Am I missing something or are you not reading the thread marv? gonzaw did make a big post on Holy that I have yet to read, but my attack post occurred at an earlier time. How can your suspicions against me be valid if you've got your timeline mixed up?

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 03:11 GMT

#536

$[image loading]$

My fellow players, I present to you the greatest advancement in scum hunting techniques since the Mafia Report Card and the Day Three Mayor Election. I am proud to introduce Mafia Combinatorics!

In an 11 player setup with three mafia members, there are 165 possible mafia team combinations. However, by attempting to only identify a pair of scum buddies, this number can be significantly reduced. By assuming that you are town*, there are three valid pairs in a group of 45 combinations. If you are able to identify two town players with a high degree of confidence, this number is reduced to three in a group of 28 pairings. Rather than attempting to look for a pair of scum buddies, I shall attempt to identify pairs who are not scum buddies. Even if a valid pair is eliminated due to poor reasoning, there are still two other correct combinations, which allows me to make multiple mistakes before I've eliminated all valid solutions. Through process of elimination, I shall use this list to generate a vote that is slightly better than random, but only with your help! I will attempt to include an updated spoilered list in every post with the cominbations that have not been eliminated based on interactions in the thread, lynch flips, night hits, and strong town reads. If you strongly disagree with a combination that has been eliminated or you believe that I should consider removing a pair for various reasons, let me know! Eliminating yourself because you are town is not a valid suggestion. That only works for me because I'm special. The mafia team is now facing a ticking time bomb. Will they manage to kill me before the game is solved? Will I realize this is a terrible idea that is incredibly time inefficient? Will I be ignored because you guys are unable to appreciate the greatness of my plans? Find out!

* Disclaimer: Please keep in mind that this may not be a valid assumption before applying Mafia Combinatorics to a game.

+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] +

{Foolishness,Marvellosity}
{Foolishness,Promethelax}
{Foolishness,Austinmcc}
{Foolishness,Sandroba}
{Foolishness,VisceraEyes}
{Foolishness,HolyFlare}
{Foolishness,Hapahauli}
{Foolishness,Gonzaw}
{Marvellosity,Promethelax}
{Marvellosity,Austinmcc}
{Marvellosity,Sandroba}
{Marvellosity,VisceraEyes}
{Marvellosity,HolyFlare}
{Marvellosity,Hapahauli}
{Marvellosity,Gonzaw}
{Promethelax,Austinmcc}
{Promethelax,Sandroba}
{Promethelax,VisceraEyes}
{Promethelax,HolyFlare}
{Promethelax,Hapahauli}
{Promethelax,Gonzaw}
{Austinmcc,Sandroba}
{Austinmcc,VisceraEyes}
{Austinmcc,HolyFlare}
{Austinmcc,Hapahauli}
{Austinmcc,Gonzaw}
{Sandroba,VisceraEyes}
{Sandroba,HolyFlare}
{Sandroba,Hapahauli}
{Sandroba,Gonzaw}
{VisceraEyes,HolyFlare}
{VisceraEyes,Hapahauli}
{VisceraEyes,Gonzaw}
{HolyFlare,Hapahauli}
{HolyFlare,Gonzaw}
{Hapahauli,Gonzaw}

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 04:00 GMT

#539

I brought up some minor suspicions of Hapa early on in the game, but on second thought they probably didn't warrant much weight. When the game began, I was hesitant to trust the player that was going out of their way to look pro-town and generate "discussion" figuring that there might be a mafia player who is trying to teach their shadow how to maintain a strong thread presence. However, while Hapa is certainly capable of presenting strong town posts mid-game as mafia, I found that he appears to strongly prefer a backseat role on day one. He has mostly stayed active even after the start of the game, so I'm willing to put him in the back of my mind.

Foolishness is pretty reliable for the one big post after people share their annoyance that he hasn't solved the game yet. I'm satisfied enough to move my vote, as long as he doesn't expect the one post to buy enough town cred to ride out the rest of the day in cruise control. His reads match up pretty closely to what I'm thinking at the moment, although I suppose it's not too difficult to call townie looking players town and then pick a couple personal preferences from the remaining group.

There is one thing that I disagree with in Foolishness's assessment. He states that sandroba has had a strong appearance and has brought things to the thread. I don't see it so far. When he rejoined the thread, his re-enterence was extremely vanilla. He asked Foolishness about his WoS, which had already been beaten to death and he gave a softball to marv. His statement about Prom wasn't really anything new that he brought to the thread. I'm always hesitant to go after sandroba because I know a lot of the time he goes long periods of time without contributing much and then bursts into the thread with a great case. However, there is a distinct lack of aggressiveness in his posts and after 30 hours into the game, if he can't be bothered to play, that's on him, not me.

I may have overreacted to gonzaw's Foolishness case. I completely skimmed past his thoughts on VE and he moves onto sharing thoughts about Holy when he had the option to stay where he is. I haven't decided between town or mafia with a lot of spare time, but activity buys him enough town cred that I don't want to lynch him right now.

marv hasn't made a lynch push yet, which is a concern. On day one especially, I know I like to wait until late into the day to make my mind up, but at least I try to provide some direction to where I am leaning. With marv, I really don't know who he is suspicious of. He appears curious about myself, but only really brings stuff up casually without much resolve. He comments that gonzaw made some valid points, but he hasn't followed up on this by attacking any of the targets in question. Nothing really comes to mind when I think of how Marv plays mafia. I remember when he fooled me with active posting when he was new to the forum and I believe he played a backseat role in themed game, but I'll have to take a closer look at his filter. I can definitely see a mafia Marv from a gut read though.

There was a post from Prom where he commented on something I was thinking so I gave him town cred, but I can't even find it now so it couldn't have been very strong. I hope to look at Holy/Wave/Prom tomorrow. I'll be at work all day so the 6PM lynch doesn't leave much time to come up with a preferred lynch candidate, but I'll try to do my best.

I think austin may have buddied up to me when he defended me where I didn't really need defending. He amuses me though, so I'm not sure we should lynch him yet.

@Foolishness, was there anything in particular that made you eliminate sandroba from lynch consideration?

##Unvote
##Sandroba

+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] +

{Foolishness,Marvellosity}
{Foolishness,Promethelax}
{Foolishness,Austinmcc}
{Foolishness,Sandroba}
{Foolishness,VisceraEyes}
{Foolishness,HolyFlare}
{Foolishness,Hapahauli}
{Foolishness,Gonzaw}
{Foolishness,WaveofShadow}
{Marvellosity,Promethelax}
{Marvellosity,Austinmcc}
{Marvellosity,Sandroba}
{Marvellosity,VisceraEyes}
{Marvellosity,HolyFlare}
{Marvellosity,Hapahauli}
{Marvellosity,Gonzaw}
{Marvellosity,WaveofShadow}
{Promethelax,Austinmcc}
{Promethelax,Sandroba}
{Promethelax,VisceraEyes}
{Promethelax,HolyFlare}
{Promethelax,Hapahauli}
{Promethelax,Gonzaw}
{Promethelax,WaveofShadow}
{Austinmcc,Sandroba}
{Austinmcc,VisceraEyes}
{Austinmcc,HolyFlare}
{Austinmcc,Hapahauli}
{Austinmcc,Gonzaw}
{Austinmcc,WaveofShadow}
{Sandroba,VisceraEyes}
{Sandroba,HolyFlare}
{Sandroba,Hapahauli}
{Sandroba,Gonzaw}
{Sandroba,WaveofShadow}
{VisceraEyes,HolyFlare}
{VisceraEyes,Hapahauli}
{VisceraEyes,Gonzaw}
{VisceraEyes,WaveofShadow}
{HolyFlare,Hapahauli}
{HolyFlare,Gonzaw}
{HolyFlare,WaveofShadow}
{Hapahauli,Gonzaw}
{Hapahauli,WaveofShadow}
{Gonzaw,WaveofShadow}

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 13:49 GMT

#549

I'd much rather hear who marv is considering voting, rather than defending a player he thinks is town.

+ Show Spoiler [Potential Mafia Pairs] +

{Foolishness,Marvellosity}
{Foolishness,Promethelax}
{Foolishness,Austinmcc}
{Foolishness,Sandroba}
{Foolishness,VisceraEyes}
{Foolishness,HolyFlare}
{Foolishness,Hapahauli}
{Foolishness,Gonzaw}
{Foolishness,WaveofShadow}
{Marvellosity,Promethelax}
{Marvellosity,Austinmcc}
{Marvellosity,Sandroba}
{Marvellosity,VisceraEyes}
{Marvellosity,HolyFlare}
{Marvellosity,Hapahauli}
{Marvellosity,Gonzaw}
{Marvellosity,WaveofShadow}
{Promethelax,Austinmcc}
{Promethelax,Sandroba}
{Promethelax,VisceraEyes}
{Promethelax,HolyFlare}
{Promethelax,Hapahauli}
{Promethelax,Gonzaw}
{Promethelax,WaveofShadow}
{Austinmcc,Sandroba}
{Austinmcc,VisceraEyes}
{Austinmcc,HolyFlare}
{Austinmcc,Hapahauli}
{Austinmcc,Gonzaw}
{Austinmcc,WaveofShadow}
{Sandroba,VisceraEyes}
{Sandroba,HolyFlare}
{Sandroba,Hapahauli}
{Sandroba,Gonzaw}
{Sandroba,WaveofShadow}
{VisceraEyes,HolyFlare}
{VisceraEyes,Hapahauli}
{VisceraEyes,Gonzaw}
{VisceraEyes,WaveofShadow}
{HolyFlare,Hapahauli}
{HolyFlare,Gonzaw}
{HolyFlare,WaveofShadow}
{Hapahauli,Gonzaw}
{Hapahauli,WaveofShadow}
{Gonzaw,WaveofShadow}

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 14:18 GMT

#562

On January 22 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
Kita is your vote on gonzaw anything but policy atm?

My vote is on sandroba. I suppose you could call it policy. I'd much rather lynch him now, over an individual who is playing if he isn't going to contribute. I also expect more than one big post if he does return. I hadn't looked into Prom/Holy/yourself since your names are coming up the most often. I will certainly change my vote from sandroba if I find someone that I'm confident about. Possibly even slightly less than confident. I really wish people would vote sooner though, even if they need to change their mind. This seems like it is going towards the path where everyone shows up with their vote an hour or two before the lynch.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 14:21 GMT

#564

On January 22 2014 23:12 WaveofShadow wrote:
My last note on him in my QT

On January 22 2014 23:16 WaveofShadow wrote:
Too much filter diving

If that's the case, Wave must be town!

*wink wink*

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 14:22 GMT

#565

On January 22 2014 23:20 marvellosity wrote:
kita, what difference is it if people vote "sooner" and you voting someone on policy when you'll quite possibly change your mind when you look into the leading candidates? I don't get it

Mostly an excuse to get more content in the thread earlier, rather than later.

kitaman27

United States9244 Posts

January 22 2014 14:27 GMT

#567

On January 22 2014 23:23 WaveofShadow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Can you explain the logic behind the bolded?

You guys are likely going to take the most time. Mostly split my time looking at 5 people last night, those 3 today (and possibly relooking at sandroba/marv) and leaving the rest out of consideration for now.

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