[I] [S] Shadow Mini Mafia - Page 11

On January 26 2014 01:48 Toadesstern wrote:
It just doesn't make sens:



into -> a little explanation, take note that it's explanation about WoS and VE ->



into ->



aka, thought it's WoS and VE from the start of d2, when asked explains why WoS and VE into "yep it's totally WoS and the guy who's voting WoS. without any kind of explanation

##unvote
##vote Foolishness

On January 23 2014 09:04 Foolishness wrote:

I don't think that's actually possible. Look at the order of events.

Starting at this point where there are 6 votes on me and 3 on Promethelax (keep in mind this is 12 minutes before the deadline):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=439137&currentpage=41#820

The six votes on me are (in order of when they occurred): VisceraEyes, gonzaw, WaveofShadow, Promethelax, marvellosity, Hapahauli.

Now there is definitely some analysis to be done on how these votes accumulated on me but I will save that for later.

At this point gonzaw started the switch on sandroba. Austin immediately joined in. Now only gonzaw was voting on me so I'm still winning by a landslide. It's possible that they did this thinking there is no way a bandwagon on sandroba would start, but I highly doubt they would have that attitude. That is, entertain the thought for a second that gonzaw/Austin are actually mafia. They could just hammer the vote on me to ensure a town lynch (incredibly easy for gonzaw to do, Austin could just toss his vote on Promethelax or somewhere else). But that didn't happen.

Then marvellosity switches his vote as well. At this point I have 4 votes and Promethelax and sandroba both have 3.

Hapa and Promethelax also follow shortly after.

It's definitely clear that the switch to sandroba was started and enforced by towns. This was not mafia bussing each other. The big question to answer here is: what reason would mafia have for switching off of me onto sandroba? If I'm town, there's definitely no reason to. I'm hovering around 50% of votes (HolyFlare's vote isn't going to count), it'd be so easy to just ensure that I got voted. The only scenario where the mafia would have reason to switch is if I'm also mafia (which isn't true). But that scenario, however absurd, would be reasonable, thinking that I'm more valuable to the mafia than sandroba is at this point.

Thus I am in the belief that the votes on sandroba were mostly, if not 100%, town. Including my top suspect Promethelax. This seems to make a lot more sense given how that went down.

What does this all mean? Mafia could have ensured I was lynched if they were on the vote switch, so why bother vote switching in the first place? No, mafia did not vote switch. What's more likely is that the mafia were voting for me but not on the switch (VE, WoS) or the mafia were all voting for Promethelax (me, sandroba, kitaman). Note that kitaman was going against sandroba during day 1.

Remember that assuming Promethelax is town, mafia were in a great position at the end of the day. Town Foolishness has 6 votes and the runner up at 3 votes is also town. This is great for them cause they get to decide who's getting lynched. If I'm mafia why is there not more votes on Promethelax and where is my team to defend me? Sure I got kitaman pushing for Promethelax but I was in a desperate situation there. Things wouldn't have unfolded the way they did if that was the case.

So instead this means that mafia were likely already voting for me. But they wouldn't want to go with the vote switch since that was on a mafia. VE is the only person that fits this bill since he was strangely absent during lynch time (and he posted 15 minutes after the lynch). WoS would be gone but I did feel his vote on me was questionable (will look into that later don't worry). Mafia were voting for me and were sitting comfortably, and when a vote switch happened they weren't around for it.

On January 26 2014 06:07 WaveofShadow wrote:

lol so in other words you'd vote anybody if it wasn't you.

On January 26 2014 06:12 WaveofShadow wrote:

It's everyone in the 'assumed threadwide lynch list.' (Which by itself makes me go mehhhh)
So you don't want to vote for Foolish and your vote is on him?
Survival I assume?

On January 26 2014 06:27 kitaman27 wrote:


The vote is 4-4 with Foolishness hitting 4 first and you decide that you're going to swap to yourself essentially sealing your own fate? This can't possibly be a town reaction can it?

On February 05 2014 07:10 WaveofShadow wrote:

Those kinds of posts are considerably less funny now that I have a guy of my own.

On February 06 2014 11:44 Foolishness wrote:
Ideally you want to look at all the games the person has played, but nobody except VE has the time to do that.