EPTthis is so weird.
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
this is so weird. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
i really don't think moc/scib/cora could be scum. but the fact that none of them were the NK makes me a bit nervous. is the scum team really so worried about another blue role that they're willing to take away a good mislynch candidate? things we know: (1) slam has voiced he is in awe of chezinu as a player (2) chezinu hinted he was a blue analyst in the thread (but in a way i didn't think anyone would take seriously) (3) mocsta and cora have claimed VT (1) combined with the fact that slam has been blatantly following thread sentiment since he joined the game makes me inclined to think he's the last scum. but if scum is paranoid about a second blue role, why didn't they target sciberbia? did they really believe chezinu's blue claim? were they afraid he'd figure this game out if left alive? was it a combination of both? it seems weird to me that between: chezinu: claimed blue (but in a way i'd expect would draw skepticism), really high on everyone's scum-dar vs. sciberbia: status unknown, an analytical, established townie that they would choose the former. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On November 30 2013 14:45 Alakaslam wrote: I am looking at this and liking it, however, Chezinu flipped town. Mocsta has laid down a pretty strong case for Cora and HF not being scum together, so either you were wrong there or you are scum... But seeing how this was wrong, maybe Mocsta has a flaw in that same comparison. But I have seen CONF bias and I'm not gonna fall for it. Mocsta could be epic scum for all we know ATM, it's just most likely not the case (as with bereft, sciberia, I wish me) There is a lot of uncertainty out there and I think the thread shouldn't be as dead as it is... + Show Spoiler + (Read in GLaDOS voice) ...hello? Hello? hmm. it's funny you like that bolded bit. because i was about to retract it after i wrote it pre- the night post for being horrible WIFOM / logix, but i couldn't be bothered because while i didn't like the means, i stood by the end conclusion (that chez was scum). can you expand on what you mean by that bolded part above? how does mocsta's case on why cora must be town relate to my bad logic on why chezinu was scum? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
I've been thinking about it and I really think the chezinu NK simply comes down to: (1) scum team paranoid of a blue role (2) scum team worried about chez solving the game I can't think of a reason why a mocsta scum team would make this move. all it does is cast doubt on the town read almost the entire thread has on him. the only pairing where this move would make sense is if it were a moc/scib scum team. which is not impossible but pretty much gg if so. cora, I'd like to hear your mocsta case. because I've been letting you skate by on the basis that you've been genuinely hurt and feeling bullied by the no onegu lynch. but if you're scum that's a cheap way to play it. I'm now considering the possibility that it could be feigned. as before, I still think it's very troubling that scib is alive. but I do think this move could come from an onegu/slam scum team. I still think onegu is the strongest lynch for today, but I'll have to confirm this after I've returned to try hard filter rereading status. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
i retract this bit: On December 01 2013 20:53 Bereft wrote: cora, I'd like to hear your mocsta case. because I've been letting you skate by on the basis that you've been genuinely hurt and feeling bullied by the no onegu lynch. but if you're scum that's a cheap way to play it. I'm now considering the possibility that it could be feigned. based on HF's and cora's interactions, cora is basically confirmed town. onegu, are you still standing by your "cora is 100% scum"? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
who are your picks for the final 2 scum and why? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
maybe i'll look like an idiot post-game, but his filter reads pretty spotless to me. the only thing i've disagreed with him on the entire game is his JJD read. but having never played with JJD before, i can see where he's coming from. right now i'm comfortable bucketing it like the following: town with little to no doubt: {cora, sciberbia} town with a smidgen of doubt: {mocsta} will be a sad panda if town: {onegu, slam} | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On December 01 2013 04:31 sciberbia wrote: So the most pressing question is: should we lynch Onegu today? He has 3 votes if I'm not mistaken. The sad thing is that unless we are going to lynch Cora instead I'm not sure we have much choice. There are 4 townies alive right now, and we need 4 votes to lynch. So if Cora is town, even assuming that we could get the other 3 townies on a scum, we wouldn't end up getting them lynched. If we NL, then scum just delays and we are in a strictly worse position tomorrow. I'm 100% sure that I'd rather lynch Onegu than Cora, but I'm really not too confident that Onegu is a better lynch than Slam. Onegu has been trying really hard recently, and I dunno it just makes me feel uneasy. On the other hand, Rean's slot was fairly scummy and Alakaslam is hard to read/understand. @Bereft If it was all up to you, who would you rather lynch today between Slam and Onegu? in response to this, i think an onegu lynch is the right move. i agree with mocsta's post here: + Show Spoiler + On November 28 2013 15:11 Mocsta wrote: - In my head I was thinking: I'm bored, how about I give Onegu some courtesy and give it a full read over. - Then I realised "WOW!" Onegu has an 11page filter, maybe... *just* MAYBE he could be town. BAH-BAM !!!!! - Then I realised something else. You see Onegu: Its impossible for Holyflare and Corazon to be on a scum team. (1) Thread sentiment wanted an Onegu lynch (2) Corazon wanted a Onegu lynch (3) Its MYLO (4) Corazon fake-claimed to get you lynched (5) Holyflare Opposed the lynch as hard as he could.. even getting Corazon to admit the fake-claim Whats the problem? The problem is that scum want to win. As quickly as possible. Give that it is MYLO, if Corazon was scum -- there was no need for Holyflare to battle him, put pressure on him.. heck even get Corazon to admit fake-claiming. Further, if Corazon was *WRONG* about Onegu... Holy woulda just sat by idly and let scum mislynch to finish the game. Onegu, we already knew you were scum before all this. Now its proven and irrefutable You *will* be lynched tomorrow. The only decision this town has to make is between Chezinu and Alakaslam. Considering Chezinu flipflopped his vote, and Slam stayed true. Nothing has changed. Its just a matter of waiting out the required cycles. *TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK* HF writes this when we're full steam ahead on onegu (post-cora's "night check"): On November 26 2013 17:19 Holyflare wrote: You people are silly. Guy claims cop AND who he is checking way before night is over and you expect him to live?? Then you say I'm scum? If i was scum I'd know i wasn't doc and he'd be checking onegu who you all seem to think is scum too, if that were the case why would i let a cop check go off on my team instead of just killing the guy? If he dies I look bad, so what? I've been in the shadows the entire time, watching, getting reads on who to save and then someone claims cop?? Thanks for taking away my heal from someone that needed it. I don't believe he is cop at all. Cora being alive is a complete farce, I'm pretty sure his cop claim is very very fake because he most definitely would have checked me night 1 or 2 when I claimed over a guy who is actually posting because as he has stated, we don't know what these lurkers alignments are and we will never know, yet, he doesn't check any of our alignments at all. Just onegu who was under the most suspicion to get lynched today anyway? Couple this with the fact that mocsta was finding ways for me to be scum with NK scenarios OUT LOUD IN THE THREAD, yeh that makes total sense. If he was town he could post this stuff after the night kills to get some solid reasoning but he posts them before the night was over yesterday. If you are town, what were you thinking? Scum is clearly going to go for the one that makes people look the most scummy. Tl:dr Cora's claim is fake, misleading town into a most probably towny lynch on onegu. i think this post is pretty damning because he writes it at a time when he didn't think he'd be on the chopping block. HF realized cora's cop claim was fake (probably because the "town" in (town investigator) didn't match the scum team's own fake cop claim). if onegu was town, there was absolutely no reason for him to defend onegu, because if we mislynched onegu, scum would have won. and if somehow the game lasted another day, corazon would be in hot water for his fake claim and scum would be set up to push another mislynch. so really there was zero incentive for HF to prove cora's claim was fake. i also don't put much stake in onegu's pages of written notes (sorry onegu  ). to be quite frank, i think i'd be more inclined to take notes as scum than town to keep track of all my running lies!!as mocsta has said, BAM BAM!! i think we are over thinking this one. what we need to focus on is if we are sure mocsta is town and slam is the last scum. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On December 02 2013 01:22 Onegu wrote: Yes, I am saying I pegged the scum team, they didnt want something crazy to happen if they missed thier shot and wifo,ed into bussing. Also the HF cora interactions gave them both a way to back off of the fake claims. Basicly do you thin it is possible both me and cora could be town. Now if by some chance i flip green + Show Spoiler + I will flip VT even if by some horrible twist of fate you flip VT, i will stand by cora being town until the day i die (game life, not real life). | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On December 02 2013 02:35 Onegu wrote: I will get double sad pandas for you. But 4rlz when I flip VT go and look at the actions around the time cora claimed cop. You are confirmed town. That leaves slam, mocsta, and scib. If cora town 2/3 of them would habe to not be around to shoot the cop. Who if was actuall cop would report a green check on me, you think scum would let that happen? Nope cora is scum. it's weird that scum didn't shoot cora. but that doesn't actually enhance your case. you, HF, slam, chezinu, scib were all afk for the deadline. by process of elimination, this would leave you and slam. in any case, i'm not going to question a strong town read by mere virtue of the fact that they are alive. the scummiest thing about sciberbia right now is that he's not dead, and there's too much to take into account as to what mafia was thinking to be suspicious JUST based on that. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On December 02 2013 03:02 sciberbia wrote: @Bereft What if Mocsta/Onegu is scumteam and Mocsta figured that he would be able to get a mislynch on Slam, but was worried for whatever reason that Chez was blue and would be able to confirm Slam as town or Mocsta as scum? Seems very plausible to me. This is why I think the Chez kill points towards Moc being scum (or possibly even you/cora) over both Slam and Onegu. i've spent some time thinking about this [off the thread], and i think it's difficult to say which pairings over other pairings would be inclined to kill chezinu over you or mocsta. regardless of an onegu/slam or onegu/mocsta scum team, the chezinu NK speaks to the scum team being paranoid of chezinu's claim and chezinu solving the game. i think this could be applicable for both pairings, but potentially a riskier move for onegu/mocsta. say the NK was someone unsurprising, such as yourself. mocsta has more town cred than chezinu, so if it came down to mocsta's word vs. chezinu's word, i would almost undoubtedly believe mocsta over chezinu. if it were chezinu's word vs. slam's word, it's pretty fair game. either way, i think the NK is useful to evaluate in conjunction to existing reads, but by itself it's somewhat pointless. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
On December 02 2013 03:07 sciberbia wrote: + Show Spoiler [Bereft] + On December 02 2013 01:52 Bereft wrote: in response to this, i think an onegu lynch is the right move. i agree with mocsta's post here: + Show Spoiler + On November 28 2013 15:11 Mocsta wrote: - In my head I was thinking: I'm bored, how about I give Onegu some courtesy and give it a full read over. - Then I realised "WOW!" Onegu has an 11page filter, maybe... *just* MAYBE he could be town. BAH-BAM !!!!! - Then I realised something else. You see Onegu: Its impossible for Holyflare and Corazon to be on a scum team. (1) Thread sentiment wanted an Onegu lynch (2) Corazon wanted a Onegu lynch (3) Its MYLO (4) Corazon fake-claimed to get you lynched (5) Holyflare Opposed the lynch as hard as he could.. even getting Corazon to admit the fake-claim Whats the problem? The problem is that scum want to win. As quickly as possible. Give that it is MYLO, if Corazon was scum -- there was no need for Holyflare to battle him, put pressure on him.. heck even get Corazon to admit fake-claiming. Further, if Corazon was *WRONG* about Onegu... Holy woulda just sat by idly and let scum mislynch to finish the game. Onegu, we already knew you were scum before all this. Now its proven and irrefutable You *will* be lynched tomorrow. The only decision this town has to make is between Chezinu and Alakaslam. Considering Chezinu flipflopped his vote, and Slam stayed true. Nothing has changed. Its just a matter of waiting out the required cycles. *TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK* HF writes this when we're full steam ahead on onegu (post-cora's "night check"): i think this post is pretty damning because he writes it at a time when he didn't think he'd be on the chopping block. HF realized cora's cop claim was fake (probably because the "town" in (town investigator) didn't match the scum team's own fake cop claim). if onegu was town, there was absolutely no reason for him to defend onegu, because if we mislynched onegu, scum would have won. and if somehow the game lasted another day, corazon would be in hot water for his fake claim and scum would be set up to push another mislynch. so really there was zero incentive for HF to prove cora's claim was fake. i also don't put much stake in onegu's pages of written notes (sorry onegu ). to be quite frank, i think i'd be more inclined to take notes as scum than town to keep track of all my running lies!!as mocsta has said, BAM BAM!! i think we are over thinking this one. what we need to focus on is if we are sure mocsta is town and slam is the last scum. Also, you've sold me on Onegu. Let's make it happen. ##Vote: Onegu I agree that, given Onegu flips town, finding the last scum between Mocsta and Slam is nontrivial. I'm having a hard time deciding what to base that call on. Slam hasn't really done anything to establish his towniness, whereas at least Mocsta has been quite active and has ostensibly been playing 'pro-town'. And Rean's play has been covered. On the other hand, the night kills point towards Mocsta being scum than Slam. Also, ever since Cora and I voiced suspicions of him today, he went even more spazztic than usual, jumping around from person to person, calling nearly everybody scum except you. It's suspicious to me. I agree (also I assume you mean "given Onegu flips scum"). as I said a while ago: On November 21 2013 13:32 Bereft wrote: i really want to believe moc is town, but i keep seeing small red flags embedded in his posts. basically it comes down to a very pro-town looking player with small red flags everywhere vs. one huge question mark. at the moment i'm inclined to think mocsta is town, but he's making me a bit nervous with his posting today. who we really need to hear from is slam right now. where are you dude? you've done zero scum hunting and just echoed thread sentiment since you joined. it's hard to tell if this is because you're uninvested / uninterested due to replacing in or just plain scum. did you bother reading the thread for what happened before you replaced in? (this is a serious question.) let's hear what you're thinking. p.s. don't worry cora i'll read your case now. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
->whether intentional or unintentional, the fiasco surrounding cora's cop claim has made him a near confirmed town ->I struggle to find a single scummy thing in scib' s filter. if scum, he's managed to echo my thoughts and sentiments near precisely throughout the entire game thus far it's true that the points which have convinced scib to vote onegu were initially raised by you. but what I don't understand is if you arrived at the same conclusion I did from the same event (that being HF's reaction to cora's cop claim), why did you doubt cora and waffle on the onegu lynch earlier today? @cora I think you make a strong case. but some points you raised I'm unsure about. in particular, how the night kills make sense coming from a mocsta scum team. the thrawn and aqua night kills actually strengthened my mocsta town read. don't you think he put himself in quite a precarious position by getting rid of his 2 strongest town advocates? you, aqua, and thrawn were incredibly confident he was town, while scib and I had reservations. and if he was around for the deadline during your cop claim, why do you think he left you alive? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
do you still think onegu is irrefutably scum? do you think scib is more likely to be scum than slam? | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
and to think i thought this game might finally reverse my 0% TL win rate. G_G | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
who the fuck knows anymore. is cora even town?? {cora, rean}? i don't get why HF would attack cora to save onegu. i don't get why cora's case on you would entirely hinge on onegu being scum. it doesn't make any sense. i'm going to bed - i guess i'll find out tomorrow. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
is this an ego thing? you don't like that he managed to read more town in 1/3 the amount of pages? I've no confidence in my reads right now and don't see how it matters either way... | ||
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