Newbie Mini Mafia LI

I made a single comment because I didn't like what I saw was a trend in Balla's posts. Balla then continued the discussion, and so I replied, trying to be succinct, and Balla asked for more clarification so I delivered.

I never wanted to make it a big deal in the first place, but I won't ignore when someone's asking for explanation.

Like I said, back to scumhunting. The rest of my posts will be about that and not trivial things like this.

His top 2 scum read post:

First thing to note is that he did try to last-minute vote switch with Jonny onto dnyarri. I feel that this makes him a definite town, but thinking further this applies only if dnyarri flips red. If dnyarri flips green it makes no difference to him to switch and it could be a move to grab town cred. Again, you can't argue one way or another without knowing dnyarri's alignment so I won't consider any of this in my analysis.

If anyone is thinking "yeahhh well the SK could have been faking being role blocked twice in a row" or "she could be SK and a town roleblocker could have blocked her twice in a row" ... Just no.

I've been pushing BigDad for pretty much the whole game. At first I was convinced he slipped because of his wishy-washiness on Day 1. In this post here I pressed him for wishy-washiness, at first I didn't care for his response, but looking at it now I feel I may have been tunneling him too hard.

BigDad also pushes the tD/DW scumbuddy theory, which was super flimsy and which I thought was a scummy move. The three people who pushed this theory (according to theDragoon) were BigDad, OWB and dnyarri. OWB has flipped town, dnyarri is town as well I believe (and in my analysis I showed he didn't really subscribe to that theory anyways). So basically this theory is non-indicative of alignment.

BigDad became less suspicious of Day_Walker near the end of Day 1, subscribing to Day_Walker's idea of dnyarri scum and voting dnyarri. From there on BigDad's primary target has been dnyarri. Even up to Day 3, BigDad was still tunneling dnyarri, making a big post attacking dnyarri with weak points. dnyarri deflects the attack, but again, a lot of the arguments were strained and weak and I see plenty of scum motivation to do so.

I think his continued tunneling of dnyarri is scummy, and I think his wishy-washiness earlier was scummy. However I was so sure that theChyz was going to flip scum and BigDad would be his scumbuddy and with TheChyz's reveal I'm not so sure anymore.

Points in BigDad's favour:

I liked BigDad's original analysis of Day_Walker where he states Day_Walker's play is cautious, but didn't agree with the verdict because at the time I was reading Day_Walker as cautious townie.

This quote,

Someone else commented that this makes BigDad look more townie.. And yeah.. In mafia QT they'd be talking about vig shots, and cop checks.. To make a simple mistake and think that both cops and vig's can shoot seems more like a townie blunder. Kind of a weak point on its own but something that caught my eye as a possible 'newbie town' slip.

He is the last non-confirmed person that Jonny pressured in Day 1. Everyone else is now confirmed town (except dnyarri who I am assuming is town and Derrida who flipped scum Night 1).

I like BigDad's 'voting pattern' argument against theChyz. It felt like he was contributing.

TheChyz defended BigDad and saw him as least scummy of the three.

BigDad has been less active recently, which makes it harder to read him than other players. I'm not confident in my scum read on him anymore.

I read Day_Walker as town in Day 1. I saw his posts as cautious, but nothing really scummy stood out to me.

Since then, Balla, OWB and TheChyz have all placed Day_Walker on their scum list right before they were lynched. I always thought other people looked more scummy and reading Day_Walker's filter nothing ever stood out to me but now I'm looking deeper.

Day 1, his opening post is a list post where his only scum choice is TheChyz.. Everyone saw this as scummy. I admitted it but thought his later play made up for it and dismissed it.

Day_Walker avoids a vote on theDragoon and defends him because of his 'gut feeling'.

He's inconsistent in one post where he explains that theDragoon's case was bandwagoned by mafia, not led by them, but at the end of the post thinks dnyarri looks scum because he led the votes on theDragoon.

He also pushes this idea of lynching 'scummy lurkers', which he then sort of explained his way out of, but lynching lurkers does have scum motives.

Day_Walker commented on OWB's case, saying TheChyz made a great case against OWB and that he would be fine with switching, but keeps his vote on dnyarri. In his next post he says he might be tunnel-visioning dnyarri and switches his vote to OWB without further explanation.

Someone else pointed this out previously, but Day_Walker put Asuna as #2 scum, even though he admitted his reasoning on why he thought she was scum was incorrect and that he would be unhappy with an Asuna lynch.

He jumps on BigDad after my case on BigDad without any explanation and hasn't contributed since.

Day_Walker shows inconsistency in his reads and inconsistency in what he says and how he acts. He doesn't provide strong cases when he does act, either. I've read him as 'cautious', but because he didn't show any obvious scum slips he didn't stand out to me.

I think the case against him is the strongest. My vote for him is at the end of this post.

sidesprang hopped onto theDragoon after theDragoon self-destructed. So it would be an easy bandwagon. He pressures theDragoon a bit. He states that it's possible for Day_Walker to be scum, but that 'its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum'. The rest of his analysis of Day_Walker is non-conclusive.

After theDragoon's lynch, he says 'I think we should spend some more energy on looking at the votes. I'll try to see if I can find something.' He never ends up looking into the votes.

sidesprang was eighth to vote for theDragoon. He soft-defended Day_Walker, and was fourth to vote against dnyarri. After TheChyz, chinstrap and I vote against OWB, he posted his analysis on OWB and switched to OWB. Sidesprang was fifth to vote for TheChyz on the pretense that he didn't see how theChyz's trapping plays could be explained from a townie perspective.

Sidesprang has bandwagoned on every lynch this game. He provides a bit of analysis before he votes, but doesn't really explore any other options in the meantime. He spends a lot of time defending.

I think he is second most likely to be scum.