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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 3

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 00:36 GMT
#882
Yeah you're right. I wish we had another vig/cop shot so we could take out dynarri for lurking. I loath to waste another day/lynch on a lurker.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 00:50 GMT
#886
oh right, haha my bad. just re-read the roles part. sorry! also, what is MYLO? google isn't helping
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 00:51 GMT
#887
found it: http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Mislynch_and_Lose
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 02:59 GMT
#894
Convenient time to return.

@Day_Walker that posts makes sense to me, but where do we stand on Asuna if dnyarri flips green?
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 03:12 GMT
#896
In other words does Asuna look scummy independent of dnyarri and derridas posts?
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 03:32 GMT
#898
@balla Currently asking Day_Walker to further back the reasoning on his accusation.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 09 2014 03:52 GMT
#900
I think you've missed what I'm asking Balla24. Let me put it in context, day one I was suspicious of Day_Walker however his posts on lurkers and dnyarri swayed me a little to his side a little more. Since then this is one of the more solid accusations I've read, and it comes from a player who I've had previous doubt for. I don't want to fall into a lull. This accusation is essentially an elaboration on his initial theory, which is good. Yet I'm cautious of another mislynch. Essentially I just want to hear some more from Day_Walker before signing up for this particular theory.

Tbh Personally I haven't had an in depth look at Asunas feed in a while, mainly been looking at Derrida, dnyarri and jonny.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 10 2014 23:18 GMT
#1089
Hey everyone. Saturday morning hangover. -_- Sorry for being afk for a bit, Friday night work drinks rolled me hard. Let me catch up on the thread. I need to work out why this random as heck switch to OWB happened.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 10 2014 23:27 GMT
#1090
Wow this is ridiculous, I'm going to post my reads in a bit, need to wake up properly. Think of my play what you will (@Balla, etc) I don't really care if you've done your theory crafting on me, I know it's wrong. Looking at dnyarri and theChyz's filters it seems like the rest of town got played yesterday. I wish i had of been here.. -_- let me write up a post now.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 11 2014 01:16 GMT
#1092
as promised:

Dynarri

Evidently this guy has dodged a lynch two days in a row my questions is why? Is it because of a pro-town play style or is it because there have been 'better options' on each day. Funnily enough its the second one - and each time we choose someone else they have flipped town. This is curious, why on earth do we keep finding him to be the less scummy option? Lets have a look at his filter to determine whether he is actually contributing to the team. Check this bandwagoning he is doing:

Day 1: dynarri jumps on theChyz bandwagon here
Day 1: dynarri jumps onto theDragoon bandwagon and subsequent lynch here
Day 2: dynarri spots possible opportunity of simultaneously bandwagoning onlywonderboy while posturing and preparing bandwagon onto me here
Day 2: dynarri jumps onto the onlywonderboy bandwagono and subsequent lynch here

Personally, looking at his filter I can't help but find him to be utterly scummy. Please take the time to look at that those links for me.

Now that we can see his train of thought, lets go back to my initial question:

"Why do we find him the less scummy option?"

I DONT find him the less scummy option. He is consistently 'blowing in the wind' whichever way balla24 or popular demand takes his votes and it's working. Not only that, he has spent a lot of time out of the thread (which we realised when we initially decided to lynch him from lurking) but he is bandwagoning like no tomorrow. Where is the solid reasoning in his votes? Here, look at this reasoning for the OWB's mislynch: here which convieniently looks as if he has made some powerful reasoning when he links - but if you follow the link in that post... huh? where is the reasoning? he said it himself, he voted for OWB because OWB voted for him. That's a very irresponsible way to spend a vote.

So now I ask "Why has he dodged a lynch two days in a row?"

I'll post my analysis of theChyz shortly.

|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 11 2014 01:19 GMT
#1093
Ferk, I've got to go AWOL for a few hours to visit my cousin. I'll try get my post on theChyz out before N2 is over.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 00:18 GMT
#1167
warning wall of text... sorry!

My case on theChyz (sorry i didn't get this into the nightpost, i had an action packed weekend)

I'll start with Asuna's analysis of theChyz then move onto what I had previously:

On January 12 2014 13:49 Asuna wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 13:44 TheChyz wrote:
7 powerroles, 2 confirmed means 5 powerroles left. In the setup, 5 T's = 1 goon, 1 gf, 1 sk

There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly).

You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me.
##Vote: TheChyz


coupled with

On January 12 2014 13:56 Asuna wrote:
Also, my read right now is that TheChyz is the mafia roleblocker. My reason for that read is that because no cops have come forward, and no doc saving has occurred on the two most obvious townies (Balla and JonnyLaw), he's assuming that I'm a town power role, either cop or doc (because I've been roleblocked every night). Assuming that, that makes 3 townie power roles, which makes it relatively unlikely that there is another one. I say that because it explains what he says about
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 13:17 TheChyz wrote:The cool part is that if I am correct nobody should fake claim since asuna will be alone (if either mafia or sk).

So he's expecting that I will be the only town power role to claim. Thus making me alone.

You can combine what I just typed with what I typed above and have spoilered here:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 12 2014 13:49 Asuna wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 12 2014 13:44 TheChyz wrote:
7 powerroles, 2 confirmed means 5 powerroles left. In the setup, 5 T's = 1 goon, 1 gf, 1 sk

There's been so SK kill, and you're assuming that there's not a single non vanilla townie left? You said assuming no vigi or mason, but now you're assuming no cop, doc, or town RB as well. And assuming all that, therefore TTTTT is the setup and therefore there's no mafia RB which means I'm mafia? And that's why you're pushing with an instant lynch vote on me? Wtf logic is this. Like, you're literally assuming every remaining townie is a vanilla towning (if I'm reading http://wiki.mafiascum.net/?title=C9++ correctly).

You looked scummy on day 1 and this rush to lynch with the dumbest logic ever just puts you back in the lynch seat for me.
##Vote: TheChyz


So Chyz is so mafia.




Voting pattern:

theChyz's playstyle focuses on submitting votes against players in rapid fire succession. This has proved to be a volatile gamestyle in the early stages of the game; he has since stood by this play style as a method of stirring discussion link. However if you take a deeper look at the way this play is 'facilitating' discussion you can see another pattern in his votes:

Day 1: votes for Day_Walker link
Day 1: votes for dnyarri link
Day 1: votes for Day_Walker link
Day 1: votes for theDragoon link

Jumps onto theDragoon bandwagon. Not highly suspicious as a lot of people made this mistake.

Day 2: votes for dnyarri link
Day 2: votes for OWB link
Day 2: votes for Asuna link
Day 2: votes for OWB link

Bounces between the major bandwagon of the day OWB and other players before switching right before the final tally. Coupled with the other analysis made in the thread this is scummy play. He gets to join the bandwagon while hiding behind his other votes on Asuna.

Day 3: votes for Asuna link

Asuna has claimed being roleblocked two days in a row; provided scum could have a roleblocker, which is highly likely given the structure of the game. I think this is a pretty good indicator of his innocence. theChyz is trying to get a mislynch onto Asuna so that he doesn't have to use another nightkill on someone he is roleblocking and suspects to be a power role.

Inexplicable play by theChyz

He currently has his vote on Asuna yet say this:

Currently I think asuna, dnyarri, chinstrap, myself are town. With a 6v2 right now that makes it only having to pick out a pair out of the remaining 4. Those being DW, suki, bigdad, and sidesprang.


I'm not sure if theChyz isn't following the conversations that have been going on, has not been reading the thread or his analysis is purely circumstantial and changes extremly quickly.

However to me, it just summarizes his 'bouncy' play style is incriminating.

Personally I think theChyz is scum.

##Vote: theChyz
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 00:24 GMT
#1168
My #1 Scum Pair at the moment is:

theChyz and dnyarri.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 00:26 GMT
#1169
looking at dnyarri's filter he is actually pushing as hard as Asuna on theChyz... this is either dnyarri throwing theChyz under the bus, or i'm completely wrong on theChyz.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 20:07 GMT
#1188
Personally I feel that theChyz's above post (link) is fairly WIFOMy. As TheChyz currently holds a majority vote he is likely to say anything to defend himself. As TheChyz has surreptitiously pointed out It's so close to MYLO at the moment that it would be reckless not to go with our scummiest picks; he has highlighted the exact reason that he is my best candidate.

@Sidestrang and Chinstrap, please come out of hibernation for today. We need to determine what is happening at lynch time. Please see Asuna's, Suki, Dnyarri and my own reasoning for why TheChyz is the scummiest pick at the moment.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 21:04 GMT
#1194
On January 14 2014 05:14 sidesprang wrote:
I did vote BigDad, and I also asked him a direct question for what I felt he needed to so I could understand his play. He refused to do so, so I just assume he dont have an explanation for it and that he is scum at this point.


Sorry, I must have missed it. I'll go through your feed, give me a few moments.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 13 2014 23:27 GMT
#1200
ugh, well at least chinstrap wasn't modkilled..
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 14 2014 12:12 GMT
#1203
Yeah I'm concerned. My understanding is night phase is generally the most quiet, but we should probably get some discussion about tomorrow going.
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 15 2014 03:12 GMT
#1211
Welp. That sucks. Without confirmed chinstrap we're in a tight spot. Let's start today at a running pace; let me run my analysis by you. I'm currently leaning towards Day_Walker or Dnyarri as my strongest scum picks; however analyzing their relationship it doesn't seem that it would be both. Let me elaborate:

Day_Walker

Began super active, then became defensive when probed for analysis. Has re-visited thread intermittently to submit deflective comments and more recently join the bandwagon against myself. It is difficult to get a very strong town read on Day_Walker due to his inactivity, a solid half of his posts were made during the first day period. After which he follows popular trends and posts innocuous sentence length posts (see the next 6 posts after this one.) While short posts are not inherently scummy, i think the nature of these give a good indication if you look at what he is responding too.

Additionally Mafia tend to get quite defensive. Again, this is not a 100% scum tell, but it certainly adds to the overall feel of Day_Walker's scum read. A non-exhaustive list below:

Heated discussion with chinstrap: here.

I realized that I was saying a lot of "not too much here, probably town", so I stopped and just posted what I had. In retrospect the post would have been stronger if I had just focused on my read of the interaction between you and Chyz.


Speaking to Balla24 before his untimely death:

Show nested quote +
On January 10 2014 14:57 Balla24 wrote:
It's also weird that you find the need to even include this since the rest of your post you cancel out OWB as a scum....


It's weird that when I share my thoughts about someone, I include both sides I see, even the side that I ultimately disfavor?


And finally he soft-defends me in his second post post then votes for me 48 hours later without. This by far is an interesting scum-tell; what is his reasoning?

Day_Walker asks more questions than he answers. He secures my vote for Day 4.

##Vote: Day_Walker

--------- --------- ----------

As for dnyarri

Ran out of time on my break, essentially all the reasons I've covered previously. I'll write another post consolidating and elaborating on dynarri today. Strapped for time at work currently.

I feel that Day_Walker is currently our biggest concern.

@Town, was anyone roleblocked last night?
|=| Bonkers |=|
BigDad
Profile Joined August 2012
67 Posts
January 15 2014 03:16 GMT
#1212
I should be back in about 2-3 hours after work. I'll post my analysis then about dnyarri and what we can infer from theChyz and chinstraps lynch etc.
|=| Bonkers |=|
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