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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:03 GMT
#945
Obviously the implication is that dnyarri will flip town.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:07 GMT
#947
Yessir.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:12 GMT
#950
Yeah, sidesprang was one of my weaker relationships. Sidesprang never mentioned derrida once in his entire time until he died. That indicates there IS a relationship. Derrida was relatively hard on Sidesprang the entire game, BUT it was very easy to fake, especially in his first post where he gives him red...

He never really acts on it. Definitely probably not worth writing off.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:48 GMT
#952
Day_walker, who do you want to lynch today other than dnyarri?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:56 GMT
#953
Note though that sidestrap is voting dnyarri RIGHT NOW:


On January 09 2014 22:21 sidesprang wrote:
K, thanks. Then we should be in a very good position imo.

I'm trying to read into Derrida's filter, and I think Day_Walker also comes out more town from it. I doubt a he would buddy up like he did in the first post if Day_Walker was scum. I think it would be more an attempt to pocket him than anything else.

Also when reading Derrida's first post, he fails to mention both Asuna and Dnyarri. I have only read up on Dnyarri atm, but I really can not understand how you can fail to mention Dnyarri in a list like he made. He had only posted two post by that time.

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2014 20:05 dnyarri wrote:
I think TheChyz is suspicious. First he says (s)he wants so lynch lurkers anyway. When people started to suspect him/her (s)he said that (s)he did it on purpose to catch bandwagoners. Bandwagons however give lurkers easy targets which seems contradicts his/her original agenda of lynching lurkers.

Also, TheChyz has only brought confusion and only potentially useful analysis (s)he has brought to table is against Day_Walker who was attacking TheChyz with the list. It appears more like TheChyz is trying to save his/her skin. Though I think Day_Walker is suspicious because of the list, I find TheChyz more suspicious and I don't believe that as a scum Day_Walker would attack another scums this early.

##Vote: TheChyz


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 06 2014 23:43 dnyarri wrote:
Actually I have changed my primary target of suspicion from TheChyz to TheDragoon mainly because of this post:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=434723&currentpage=16#316

TheDragoon stated that Day_Walker seemed like innocent even though Day_Walker had only posted one list and nothing else. Day_Walker's only vote is against TheChyz which doesn't mean much since TheChyz is easy bandwagoning target. TheDragoon's post give me the impression that he wants to slow voting down by defending (random) people while going to TheChyz-bandwagon and attacking nobody else.

TheChyz is confusing but I'm not sure if it's carelessness or risk taking. My logic for calling him scum was somewhat faulted too I think.

##unvote
##vote: TheDragoon


In two posts, Dnyari votes for two different people. And his posts looks rather fishy to me. With posts like those two how can you not mention Dnyarri in a list like that. Unless you had a reason not to.

That coupled with derrida trying to prevent us from lynching lurkers, and in essence to save dnyarri makes me believe there is a high chance dnyarri is scum.

##Vote Dnyarri

Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 17:58 GMT
#954
Basically, all my scum reads have voted for or are pushing dnyarri... that's a pretty big tell that dnyarri will flip town.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 18:16 GMT
#955
On January 07 2014 18:36 BigDad wrote:
Albeit reluctantly I'm liking Day_Walker's stance on lurkers. It's obvious that only Mafia and Serial Killers benefit from lurkers. I've re-read his filter and am now having doubts about stance on him. Day_Walker has started contributing more in the content of his posts than when I made my first accusations. In this post he highlights the benefits for the group of targeting an obvious, yet relatively untouched group of people who have contributed a grand total of essentially nothing. We stand to lose nothing, yet potentially gain from challenging them out of their silence.

My reads for suspicious player currently stand against Dnyarri and theDragoon with less doubt on Day_Walker for his pro-town stance on lynching those who aren't contributing.

##Unvote: Day_Walker
(Explanation above; also, I don't want to waste a vote on him if we decide to kill of the Anti-Town lurkers or that theDragoon is scummy.)


On January 07 2014 20:30 BigDad wrote:
Im off too bed also, I'm going to have to go with either theDragoon or dnyarri.

I may not be awake when the lynch occurs, but if in the next few hours you guys decide to choose a lurker over theDragoon i'll place my vote on dnyarri so that it may be easier to secure a majority. Im happy for either of them to go as one looks scummy and the other isn't adding much at all.

##Vote: dnyrarri


BigDad retreats off of his case for Day_Walker really fast after his "stance" on lurkers and then votes directly on his previous scum read's target without hesitation. This is seriously suspicious. Especially considering he said this about Chyz earlier in the day:

[B]On January 07 2014 08:44 BigDad wrote:
I was looking through everyones feeds and saw that, i thought it was notable considering the early (and large) play by him - then the hasty retreat from play with an easy vote on a Lurker. What is your analysis on him so far?


(Context is he's calling out thechyz for making an "easy vote" on dnyarri and then saying he has to go afk)

BigDad, you did EXACTLY the same thing as Chyz later on. That's really weird.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 22:45 GMT
#960
On January 10 2014 07:25 dnyarri wrote:

I'd probably save chinstrap. chinstrap is IC and very active. Since nobody here is attacking chinstrap, chinstraps death wouldn't give useful information. It would be purely loss for town.



IC means they are 100% confirmed town by moderator.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 22:54 GMT
#961
On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2014 02:12 Balla24 wrote:
Yeah, sidesprang was one of my weaker relationships. Sidesprang never mentioned derrida once in his entire time until he died. That indicates there IS a relationship. Derrida was relatively hard on Sidesprang the entire game, BUT it was very easy to fake, especially in his first post where he gives him red...

He never really acts on it. Definitely probably not worth writing off.

I read that more as Derrida trying to push a case on a semi-lurker that he could justify as a reasonable read when he flipped town. It seemed like he was posturing himself for Day 2 and of course didn't expect to die.

I'm still getting a scum vibe from Day_Walker. There are his interactions with Derrida prior to his flip
Show nested quote +
On January 09 2014 02:15 Day_Walker wrote:
I don't like Derrida's post, and I'm going to bed.

Show nested quote +
On January 09 2014 02:33 Day_Walker wrote:
On January 09 2014 02:31 Derrida wrote:
Of course you would hate that post because it points to two scums as two scums for the first time in the game. The only two things that do not make sense in that lynch for me are Jonny's switch and your reaction.


Also because it is full of statements which are factually incorrect. You have not read the thread carefully.


While this is a negative statement against Derrida it's hardly pushing him very hard. Could easily be a weak read to just to build cred if Derrida ever flipped scum (although I doubt the scum team expected it to come so soon) I also don't think his main theory of Asuna/dnyarri/Derrida is super solid. It revolves heavily around the idea of Derrida leaving out Asuana and dnyarri from his initial reads. I just can't imagine a scum player purposely leaving BOTH of his partners off of a list. It's so suspicious and something people could easily find. If that's what actually happened that might be the worst mafia play I've seen in all my newb games.

If we are less certain about dnyarri being scum I'm fine with finding a new target, but at this point even if we lynch him we find out a lot of information regardless of how he flips.


I agree with the fact that dynarri/asuna/derrida is pretty unlikely because he left them both off. But it's pretty weak connection. I'd rather find something more concrete. And anyways, asuna is confirmed atm.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 23:05 GMT
#962
On January 10 2014 07:20 onlywonderboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2014 02:12 Balla24 wrote:
Yeah, sidesprang was one of my weaker relationships. Sidesprang never mentioned derrida once in his entire time until he died. That indicates there IS a relationship. Derrida was relatively hard on Sidesprang the entire game, BUT it was very easy to fake, especially in his first post where he gives him red...

He never really acts on it. Definitely probably not worth writing off.

I read that more as Derrida trying to push a case on a semi-lurker that he could justify as a reasonable read when he flipped town. It seemed like he was posturing himself for Day 2 and of course didn't expect to die.


Yep, that's why I wrote him off initially. But it's probably wrong to write him off for just that, as I said, it's very easy to fake push someone but then pussy out when it comes to lynching them.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 23:26 GMT
#965
Sorry chin, behind what?
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 09 2014 23:48 GMT
#971
I don't think the Jonnylaw night kill makes sense for a derrida/dnyarri/sidesprang scumteam.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 01:01 GMT
#972
On January 10 2014 08:28 chinstrap wrote:
We need to explain why Derrida chose to defend dynarri immediately after the lynch was almost switched to him.


Because it added to his Jonnylaw/Balla case IMO. He wasn't necessarily defending him but moreso calling Jonny out for something he said.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 03:20 GMT
#974
Please do point out something scummy in every single post.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 04:07 GMT
#975
On January 10 2014 07:45 Balla24 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 10 2014 07:25 dnyarri wrote:

I'd probably save chinstrap. chinstrap is IC and very active. Since nobody here is attacking chinstrap, chinstraps death wouldn't give useful information. It would be purely loss for town.



IC means they are 100% confirmed town by moderator.


Sorry, misread the Q. But, Mafia isn't looking to kill for information... they are looking to kill to win the game. Why would chinstrap's death not give useful information? Anybody dying would give useful information unless Mafia is doing it for literally no reason other than killing someone.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 05:08 GMT
#978
Because there was only 1 non town KP obviously.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 05:12 GMT
#980
Do you know something that we don't? At this point in town as town we assume that there is no SK, that's all there is to it. The only way you would know if there was an SK at this point is:

1. You are the SK.
2. You are mafia and your KP got blocked but SK's went through.

Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 05:19 GMT
#983
^ yes.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 05:20 GMT
#984
This is the assumption that we play at AT THIS CURRENT MOMENT.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 10 2014 05:20 GMT
#985
There is no evidence pointing to an SK, so I find it really really weird that you are even considering it at this point.
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