TL Mafia LXIII: Time to Die - Page 353

On November 26 2013 14:16 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:

Mr. Cheesecake's Big List of What The Fuck to Do

1) Risen needs to be lynched tomorrow, cut and dry. If you are advocating against lynching Risen, you are not being pro-town. There is indisputable evidence that Risen is probably mafia. In the event he flips town, the game is all but won due to the information we possess via votecounts and flipped scum associations.

A) Evidence - Not a single mention of Risen in Mocsta's filter. Albeit short, he never mentions Risen throughout the cycle in which he lived. Thrawn did not want to lynch Risen, nor did BC. This is obvious by the votecounts on Day 3, in which both mafia voted for Pandain rather than Risen. Thrawn blatantly says that he doesn't want to lynch Risen during Day 3.

B) Evidence - Risen martyr's like a fool. I saw little attempt to direct town in the right direction if he had died. He Promises to make cases before the deadline! Look!

+ Show Spoiler +
On November 25 2013 08:27 Risen wrote:
1) at the end of the day I will post actual cases on my top reads. Doing so sooner means you guys might move off of me.

2) the question you need to ask yourself mig, since you seem to have a hard time with this, is does town risen have that big an ego? The answer is yes. That's what scum risen would say, too, though. I thought people last game were wrong saying risen only gets away with this kind of thing because he's so bad but now I think they're right lol. I thought I did a really good job establishing myself as town the first couple days. Clearly, I did not.


Risen is not caring about the town, and doesn't make good on his promises. Did you see any giant Risen case? He was about to die, very close. No cases. He was going to die silently.

C) Evidence - Risen just isn't playing very pro-town in general. I can't exactly say much to this point, but it's true. What evidence is there that Risen is town? I can't find much in this regard. Lynch.

2) In the event Risen flips Town. Follow this List. I believe it to be correct.


Mig ---> Claims 2-shot vigi, seems legit. Very plausible town.
Coagulation ---> Voted Thrawn, if scum would have killed town Risen.
Hopeless1der ---> Both BC and Mocsta were scummy on him. Voted Thrawn.
Grackaroni ---> All 3 scum have pushed him super hard. Could be universal bussing, but likely town. Voted Thrawn.
austinmcc ---> began Thrawn wagon of justice, leading lynch onto scum away from town.
Mr. Cheesecake---> I'm town bitches.
Holyflare ---> Voted Thrawn. Seemed townie to me early on.
LoneMeow ---> Mason. 3 mafia masons? Voted Thrawn last hour when could have killed Risen ez.
Alakaslam ---> Voted Thrawn. Called mafia by Thrawn I think. Least townie of town.
Onegu ---> Voted Risen, ??? What has he done this game I don't remember.
Koshi ---> Led lynch onto Town Rayn, leading away from Town Risen, no big deal. Didn't vote thrawn.
Oatsmaster ---> Scummy in his own right. Declined to vote, not modkilled.
Pandain --> Towniest of the reds. Both scum voted him end of D3. Bus tactics? didn't kill thrawn. was he the vet claim?
VayneAuthority ---> Claims mad hatter, but no proofs of explody bombs. Didnt vote thrawn, but didnt vote Risen either.

3) In the event Risen flips Mafia. Only two mafia left!

We gain a ton of information about the Day 4 and Day 3 lynches. Look at who were voting BC/Thrawn/Risen. Who was NOT voting these people and shying away from them. I think Koshi really fits the bill here, pulling the Risen lynch onto Rayn.

For Day 4, mafia were probably bussing Risen because he was the unanimous lynch. Switching onto Thrawn last minute is a good way to gain towncred by swing voting a mafia (See: Nomination, I lead a lynch on scum away from scum VE, gain all the towncred, lose game cus can't kill people at night). In this case, the associations and voting patterns get a bit harder to decipher, as both candidates were mafia. I'd be looking at people who either didn't care about the lynch target, or were trying to actively call Risen town by virtue of Thrawn being mafia. This lynch gains scum Risen towncred and the ones who lynched Risen towncred. It's hazy, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

Scum has 1 KP. With daybreak, assuming 1 town dies, game will be at 3 v 11 (14 players left). Assuming Risen flips town + 1 more death, 3 v 9. Mislynch again. 3 v 7. mislynch AGAIN 3 v 5 lylo. This means that IF Risen flips town, we still have two lynches with ALL THAT INFORMATION. Still, a VERY good position for town! If he flips scum, we have more mislynches allotted, but with less direction. Can probably close out the game by being active, and when the first scum of the last two flips.

Game's in the bag, folks. If anyone can dispute this strategy, do so now. Lynch Risen, win game.