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On November 25 2013 04:14 VayneAuthority wrote:
For me it's about looking at early game play as that is when people do not try to be tricky as there is no perspective on the game yet. If you go back and look at BC's early reads I am pretty confident that every single one of those reads is horseshit. I don't think he put hiro randomly on there to fuck with us. Pretty sure those are all genuinely incorrect reads. There is also discussion between thrawn and BC as you pointed out. There is some other stuff but im not going to go into too much detail at this point in the game. Suffice to say I have reasons as well for why Risen is town but not as strong.
So what we should just assume everyone BC mention is automatically town? BC even gave himself an out on the hiro thing, said if he came back and was active he wouldn't be suspicious. This seems like pretty faulty reasoning.
Why do you think Risen is town?
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Vayne that is a major cop out. There are some things that we are uncertain of of course (looking at you slam). But most things in the game now with this much information make perfect sense.
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Risen if you are town why dont you present a case for why any of those players are mafia. Instead of just listing 4 names randomly.
Your post towards grack just lol. I am glad you can coach the town on pro town play after not showing any of it for the first three days of the game.
The only townies who want to be lynched like you are claiming are either overly emotional or terrible. I don't think you are either of these things. Mafia KP goes down with the next mafia killed. If you actually cared about town winning you would try to make a case and have a mafia killed. There is no benefit in you dying today if you are town today. So yea I don't buy the voting for yourself shit whatsoever.
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On November 25 2013 08:05 thrawn2112 wrote:
It's this thing I sometimes try to do in games... go read the game where I claimed miller in a setup with non-self aware millers, or the game where I figured out keirathi was scum because I went afk during D1 and saw that he was calling me scum for the sole reason of my being afk. It's a lot easier for me to analyze people's scum reads when they are scum reading me, and I do not mind the pressure of looking scummy.
yeah it's probably irresponsible.. but it's never actually caused any harm and it often helps my reads
So you are claiming to have been acting scummy and disappeared on purpose. Yet in your giant defend yourself post you blamed it on a poor thread environment. Makes a lot of sense.
Can you explain why you think Risen is town?
And obviously Risen doesn't want to post his cases until near lynch. 1) he is lazy/doesn't care at all about the town winning and 2) posting his cases right at the end ensures maximum confusion for the town. The only reason he may post them earlier now is because he was called out on how anti town it was.
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Risen what happened to me being scummy for revealing my reads during the night?
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Austin your entire case for why Risen is town is pretty terrible honestly. Things like Risen votes Oats instead of supersoft makes him townie are just flat out wrong. Did you not read Risen's post where he says if Oats is town we should look into supersoft. He was setting up the potential for multiple mislynches. And Oats was just a much more realistic mislynch than supersoft ever was yesterday.
So much of your case relies on the fact that they lynched Rayn and not Pandain. Have you considered that maybe mafia just thinks they can mislynch pandain easier later on? Maybe they don't actually believe pandain's vet claim? There are multiple reasons they could have decided it was better to lynch Rayn. Rayn lynch also makes koshi look worse since he pushed so hard for him, etc.
A lot of your analysis concluded that what Risen is doing makes no sense. Well no shit it makes no sense. Risen is a smart guy, look how convincing some of his posts can be. If his play makes no sense then is it more likely townie (why?) or mafia causing chaos?
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I thought Risen was going to post some cases for why people were scum. Instead we get gems like this
On November 26 2013 02:55 Risen wrote:
Pandain and HF have appeared scummy to me for a long while now but I can't remember why
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Hopeless can you explain why exactly pandain is mafia, besides the pandain lied about the logs thing? Which was already explained about 10 times in the thread.
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Thanks for the help.
But np murdering thrawn suits my interests as well.
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Did thrawn mason pandain? He didn't mason me (not really surprised). If so I wouldn't mind looking at their chat logs.
I still think there is likely to be another mafia mason for balance reasons. We have pandain/hf/lm/thrawn/austin left. Thrawn/LM seem the most likely candidates.
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Oh I keep mixing that up. Which mason am I forgetting then.
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Oh nm not forgetting any super/bc/skan the other 3. So pandain/hf/lm/thrawn.
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We have less than 3 hours until lynch and Risen still has not posted any cases on his scum reads haha. Well at least it isn't like he promised he would right?
On November 25 2013 08:27 Risen wrote:
1) at the end of the day I will post actual cases on my top reads. Doing so sooner means you guys might move off of me.
On November 26 2013 02:55 Risen wrote:
^sound logic
I present the TIERS OF SCUM
Onegu, Oats
VA, Thrawn
Austin, HF
LM, Alakaslam
Pandain, Koshi
I'll make cases on Oats and Onegu.
On November 26 2013 04:28 Risen wrote:
Mig also has a point about how I should be working on the cases and I haven't been. I'll get on that.
Oh.
Risen last second tries to save BC, has about a million inconsistencies with his play, does absolutely nothing to help the town and even votes himself and still people won't lynch him. The guy is a magician.
Anyway not going to really argue that hard. I think Risen is more dangerous as mafia and slightly more likely to be mafia but both of them I think are very very likely scum. The fact that Risen has been around and not commented on thrawn at all and thrawn has pretty much ignored Risen as well adds to this. As long as one of them is murdered I am pretty happy.
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Thrawn has done almost nothing to make me think he is town (I only wonder if he would buddy BC so obviously day 2 when BC was making his idiot case against grack as mafia). There are just more things that Risen has done that makes me think he is mafia. At the very least thrawn voted BC while Risen tried to get people to move to Oats last second. You are completely cool with Risen trying to last second save BC?
You really buy him yelling DOUBLE TOWN LYNCH DOUBLE TOWN LYNCH right before last cycles lynch when they were trying to save BC? He was pretending to be a bitter upset townie but then almost immediately asks vigs to shoot after the lynch lol. It is such a joke. He was acting and his story makes absolutely no sense. You are not a bitter townie upset that you are going to be lynched and then immediately you do a 180 and martyr yourself.
The not voting pandain stuff is literally the only evidence I see at all that you have that Risen can be town and that can be explained by a ton of different things (as I talked about earlier).
Anyway in the end like I said I think they are both mafia.
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I am around but only for 5 min then I will gone till after the deadline. Whats up.
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I don't think it looks good, I agree it actually makes him look worse with the useless timing and his earlier opinions of BC. I was just making the point that he actually voted for a scum where as Risen tried to last second save a scum.
Anyway I will repeat that I think both are mafia and if I could murder them both I would but I can only murder one so gotta murder Risen who has still not shown up with any cases whatsoever.
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Maybe vayne can stop saying Austin is scum now.
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Look at CC posting content for the town, what a champion.
But yea ezy Risen vote tomorrow. If Risen was town I like to believe that thrawn would have at least made some effort. He could have came back voted Risen and tried to sway the town and force at least one mislynch. I mean it wouldn't exactly be a hard case to make, Risen is scummy as fuck and the lynch was close. Remember mafia kp was on the line the fact he just afkd out points towards him having no options of pulling anything off.
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I pretty much agree with CC's list on the off chance that Risen flips town.
If Risen flips mafia I would go for Coag first then slam/onegu/oats/hopeless/maybe LM maybe koshi.
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I explained last night why I thought you were the most likely to be mafia other than Risen/thrawn. Why does risen flipping red make you look better?
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EPT
