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thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 02:26 GMT
#1021
my last post was meant for syl and everyone but mainly syl
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 02:44 GMT
#1022
On November 08 2013 11:23 Umasi wrote:
so I think that onegu is town, purely by feel, and would rather see votes on other people. I had a good feeling about hz at the end of d1, but since then it's been *shrug*, will keep relatively close track of koshi.
Kinda leery of hopeless/et atm, but not that much.
Not sure about rayn, but there are other people I prefer to lynch.
I have sylencia as town still, but I've kind of slept on him for a while.
I still like a vanesco lynch, can we lynch him?
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2013 17:18 Vanesco wrote:
After me trying to ask why people decided to vote on gumshoe in the last few minutes of the day I only got 2 responses (by thrawn and rayn). Mostly everybody else has been kinda lurking up to this point and still hasn't given a reason for their vote on gumshoe. I still believe that most likely that scum was involved in the vote since i don't think 7/9 townies would instantly change their vote which is why the reasons for switching your votes is really important in my opinion.

Out of the 7 who voted on gumshoe I feel like the most scummy are umasi and sno_man.

For those who are wondering why thrawn isn't there is because I do not think he is as scummy as I did last time. Ever since night 1 he has been posting well in my opinion. Another reason why is because of what I found suspicious at first, that he kinda deflected off of hzflank and started the vote on gumshoe. The more I think of it it makes me lean more town on him each time.

The argument still stands if they are both scum, but it would have been a big risk to take, but still a possibility. I don't see the scenario working if thrawn was scum and hzflank was town, that he would poke his head so far out to vote on gumshoe when all that was needed was 1 more vote on hzflank. And if thrawn is town, regardless of hzflanks alignment, he thought that gumshoe was a better vote as explained in his reasoning.

He says that he thinks both sno and I are scummy, but doesn't pursue it at all, he just addresses why thrawn ISN'T listed. feels like he was throwing something out there to throw something out there.
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2013 17:27 Vanesco wrote:
I'm also disliking all of this meta talk. While meta is good as a guideline I think people are going to much in this line of talk "well since he plays like this and this game he is playing slightly differently then he obviously must be the opposite role he was last game". Some meta talk is fine but some pages are just filled with mostly meta talk. What about some game related topics like the votes, OO's death at night and any suspicions he had on people and any people he put in the town zone. It seems many people are ignoring these greatly and if we do so then it puts town almost back into the same position as it was in day 1 with some extra reads and 2 townies dead.

'I dislike meta talk'
proceeds to talk about meta
##vote: vanesco


Hello Umasi.

Can you go into your feel read on Onegu? And can you explain about Vanesco some more? I wouldn't lynch him for any of the things you talked about, they are pretty insubstantial imo.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 02:52 GMT
#1023
they sure are fricken weird! then again, I'm the poster boy for vanescos guiltiness. (I'll consolidate again vote wise, but he never became my not #1 scum read, and largely little has happened regarding him.)
regarding onegu, the entire fuck it attitude out of the thread day one and self vote, specifically, makes me read him as town, because in my limited experience with him, he'd try much much harder as scum. He has played through more dire circumstances (and somewhat successfully) than this, so it'd be weird for him to just up and quit as scum. idc if there's a precedent for the self VOTE, but it's more than that, it's just his capitulation felt premature, more premature than scum onegu would do.
then again, I've only played one game with him where he was scum, sooooooooooo maybe I'm wrong!
just my thoughts.
"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 02:53 GMT
#1024
the first two lines are regarding vanesco, I never hit the return key to put the line break between the two trains of thought.
"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 02:56 GMT
#1025
On November 08 2013 11:52 Umasi wrote:
they sure are fricken weird! then again, I'm the poster boy for vanescos guiltiness. (I'll consolidate again vote wise, but he never became my not #1 scum read, and largely little has happened regarding him.)
regarding onegu, the entire fuck it attitude out of the thread day one and self vote, specifically, makes me read him as town, because in my limited experience with him, he'd try much much harder as scum. He has played through more dire circumstances (and somewhat successfully) than this, so it'd be weird for him to just up and quit as scum. idc if there's a precedent for the self VOTE, but it's more than that, it's just his capitulation felt premature, more premature than scum onegu would do.
then again, I've only played one game with him where he was scum, sooooooooooo maybe I'm wrong!
just my thoughts.


If he's scum he could still easily have been telling the truth about being in the hospital. IMO that part is not alignment indicative. The self vote is weird but.. does he really stand to lose anything by doing it as mafia? First, people are gonna call him town for it, second it doesn't really do much because I don't think he was in any danger of being lynched (at least not enough danger for martyrdom) and I'm not really feeling that he truly thought so either. It would have been a pretty safe thing to do as mafia.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 03:00 GMT
#1026
##unvote
##vote umasi
peace bros, I'm out.

Suddenly I'm town? of course not.


##unvote
##vote: vanesco

the circumstance surrounding his self vote, not just the fact that he self voted, make me think he's town, but only when compared to what I know of his scum play.
"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 03:03 GMT
#1027
If he really thought he was going to be lynched and decided to self vote to speed along that process to "help town" as he claimed, he was giving up way too early and for too little reason. Self voting when you know your going to be afk the rest of the lynch is helping town? If you read the thread around where he self voted you see he does it right after people start voting for me and thread sentiment does not indicate that there's enough reason for him to react so crazily.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 03:04 GMT
#1028
On November 08 2013 12:00 Umasi wrote:
##unvote
##vote umasi
peace bros, I'm out.

Suddenly I'm town? of course not.



it doesn't work that way :p it has to appear real
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 03:09 GMT
#1029
yeah idunno.
felt legit to me, although it's certainly not a logical conclusion.

all in all 3/10 would vote to secure majority majority but won't push.
(most people are 3/10s on the scale)
"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 03:18 GMT
#1030
ok i'm fine with that for now.

I'd still like you to flesh out your van case and I'd like for you to read Syl when you get a chance since you said it's been awhile.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Hapahauli
Profile Joined May 2009
United States9305 Posts
November 08 2013 03:31 GMT
#1031
Vote Count Day 2


Sylencia (0): thrawn2112
Hopeless1der (0): thrawn2112
raynpelikoneet (2): WaveofShadow, Onegu
Onegu (2): thrawn2112, raynpelikoneet, thrawn2112
Cephiro (1): Sylencia
Vanseco (1): Umasi



With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Currently no-one is set to be lynched! Day 2 ends in hours at Friday, Nov 08 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) aka 22:00 GMT (+00:00).

Make sure to cast your TWO witchcraft votes to both Blazinghand and Ange777.
a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 03:33 GMT
#1032
I still think Sylencia is townie, especially with the clear progression of thought regarding cephiro.

So much of my van case is due to the first few posts. Basically, look at my first four posts in the game (or so), that sums up my case on him :| (and then the recent one).

"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
Umasi
Profile Joined October 2012
United States1399 Posts
November 08 2013 03:41 GMT
#1033
was reading cephiro (after sylencia)
I think it's actually patently absurd that someone can be so anti-WoS. Just as an aside.

He also hasn't posted for an entire day, but that stands for more than a few people (I lay claim to this feat), but it's weird because he gives the indication of being here and then totally isn't here.
On November 07 2013 05:35 Cephiro wrote:
Just got back home (15 mins ago, took a shower as I came from practice.)

Is there anything really relevant I should know of right away? I believe I should easily catch up before the deadline, but don't count on any deeper analysis in that timeframe.


Not that this makes him overly scummy, he's just somewhere south of null for me atm, probably my #2 lynch after vanesco.
"Sir, we finally have enough corpses to serve as a ramp for your horse." "THEN LET THE REAPING BEGIN!!"
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 03:42 GMT
#1034
Yeah I know what you mean about ceph. All throughout this game I've had tons of null reads who never talk. /shrug
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 03:55 GMT
#1035
On November 08 2013 12:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
If he really thought he was going to be lynched and decided to self vote to speed along that process to "help town" as he claimed, he was giving up way too early and for too little reason. Self voting when you know your going to be afk the rest of the lynch is helping town? If you read the thread around where he self voted you see he does it right after people start voting for me and thread sentiment does not indicate that there's enough reason for him to react so crazily.



Except I had to I knew I wouldnt be around. At the time I selfvoted I had two votes and at least 3 other people say they were fine with my lynch, with my vote that was one short of majority.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 08 2013 03:57 GMT
#1036
On November 08 2013 05:16 Koshi wrote:
Cephiro
Sn0_Man
Rayn

Are these 3 guys considered town?



Nope, there is like nobody in this game everyone agrees is town
Try TL Mafia!!!
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 03:58 GMT
#1037
On November 08 2013 12:55 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2013 12:03 thrawn2112 wrote:
If he really thought he was going to be lynched and decided to self vote to speed along that process to "help town" as he claimed, he was giving up way too early and for too little reason. Self voting when you know your going to be afk the rest of the lynch is helping town? If you read the thread around where he self voted you see he does it right after people start voting for me and thread sentiment does not indicate that there's enough reason for him to react so crazily.



Except I had to I knew I wouldnt be around. At the time I selfvoted I had two votes and at least 3 other people say they were fine with my lynch, with my vote that was one short of majority.


If you are green then there is absolutely no way that helping the thread lynch you is good for town. Did you really think it was either you getting lynched or no-lynch, that there would be no other wagons? There was one forming on me right before you self voted. The reason I don't buy the self vote is because I hardly see it from townies with this mindset of "i'm helping town." Usually townies do it out of frustration/martrydom, not some "for the good of town" sentiment.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
Vanesco
Profile Joined October 2013
United States105 Posts
November 08 2013 04:03 GMT
#1038
This town is seriously ignoring so many things its putting town at a setback in my opinion. Like seriously, its now Day 2 and we are in a worse position than at the start of the game. Now instead of 10 townies we are down to 8 while scum are still at 3. What has town learnt? Not much apart from having more time to make reads on player interaction. Why is nobody interested in following up on how gumshoe was killed or why OO was a target?

So far (unless I accidentally missed it in the thread), Umasi, EchelonTee (now kinda excused since replaced), Sn0_Man, and Cephiro have not given any type of explanation as to why they decided to change their vote onto gumshoe in the last few minutes, which I am still waiting for. If those 3 (this is excluding EchelonTee) are allowed to get away with lynching a townie without ever even having to reason why it would be a big mistake. If one of those 3 happens to be scum then its like giving them a free pass on a kill.

OO's death is interesting in my opinion since a few people were kinda talking about lynching or thinking of lynching him come day 2. I think that regardless of if OO was NK or silver bullet shot, there was a reason why they chose him over somebody else. It seems that OO was mainly focused on sno for most of the game. He was also suspicious of others however sno is the one that seems to occur many times and sno's posts have very much the similar type where he has been mainly wanting to get rid of OO.

##Vote: Sn0_Man
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
November 08 2013 04:08 GMT
#1039
Vanesco have you never experienced a last minute vote switch? I don't think it deserves the scrutiny you're giving it. When the deadline is approaching fast, people are struggling to consolidate and they're out for blood, random wagons just happen.... especially when somebody pops into the thread the way gumshoe did.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
WaveofShadow
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada31495 Posts
November 08 2013 04:09 GMT
#1040
On November 08 2013 12:57 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 08 2013 05:16 Koshi wrote:
Cephiro
Sn0_Man
Rayn

Are these 3 guys considered town?



Nope, there is like nobody in this game everyone agrees is town

Me.
Alright let's see if I can get some shit done right now. If not I will have a whole bunch of hours before the lynch to play, so fear not.

First of all
##Unvote
##Vote: Onegu

I've lost the will to lynch Rayn. He hasn't done anything I could find particularly scummy today and there are better targets right now imo.
Onegu.
My vote for you currently amounts to a policy lynch essentially.
It's time to pick up your play.
You are no longer a newbie, and this self-centered, self-voting, weird ass horsehsit play no longer stands.
If you are town and you want to win this game, then you'd better fucking prove yourself, or you go down tomorrow and it is entirely on your head for playing the way you do.

In other news:
On November 08 2013 00:35 Sn0_Man wrote:
If a voted-blue dies to the blue-vig ability, do they flip green or blue?

This raised the hackles on the back of my neck. The best part about this is I could 100% see scum asking this question. No it's not entirely alignment indicative, but it makes MORE sense to me for scum to purposefully write it in the thread to use a mod-question to game people into thinking they are town for whatever reason, ESPECIALLY if he KNEW his question was not going to be answered in thread. A lot of that is conjecture but it's simply how I feel. Make of it what you will.

On November 08 2013 03:10 Sn0_Man wrote:
Errybody's afk or something.

It is possible that OO died from silver bullet and that the actual NK was either roleblocked (as it is personally delivered not factional) or Doctored. Either way, I'm interested to know if people voted for OO to be witchcrafted (Since he is dead there is no drawback to people admitting they voted him).

I, personally, did not vote him (for obvious reasons) but I'm aware he had townreads from some/many.

Part of the reason I bring this up is that I would have expected scum to spend AT LEAST 1 silver bullet last night. The rewards for killing the blues BEFORE their actions occur seem too high to pass up considering the limited amount of people I'd expect to get votes. If OO was indeed killed by silver bullet, some blue role would like VERY much to know that as they know their save hit town for example (Or their RB hit scum).

This reads like scum fishing for witchcraft vote analysis, when I'm pretty sure nobody wanted to claim votes this early. (or at all?)
Why in all that is holy would town Sn0's first assumption be that he was hit by a witchcraft bullet and that scum have spent it this early in the game? Not only did OO look increasingly less towny as the game progressed (in my opinion) but to also assume that most of the rest of town would have assumed he WAS towny enough to receive some high number of votes AND that scum would have assumed he would be a good shot for that reason is absolutely ridiculous.

On November 08 2013 03:40 Sn0_Man wrote:
I like the points against onegu, Syl's vote was WTF, my current biggest concern is that you are still alive. While I agree with (almost) all the things you say you being alive is giving me misgivings because I would have expected you to die.

Which is why I'm trying to figure out what happened last night since if OO was a blue shot then I can believe that you were targetted but saved for example. That would give me more confidence in your reads. Vets who push a mislynch D1 then go "WHOAH COMPLETE 180 ON MY READS GUYS" and are still alive D2 smell funny to me. I agree with your points but hnnnnng smells funny. So I'm looking for certainty there.

There are 2 1-shot witch hunters read the OP lol.

thrawn pointed this out already, but to be pointing out suspicions that someone is still alive after D1?! Shit spreading. Classic mafia tactic.

I hereby regret saving Sn0 yesterday and it appears we are now back where we started; the D2 lynch will probably amount to either Onegu or Sn0 in my eyes.

twitch.tv/waveofshadow ||| Winner of AHGL's So You Think You Can Cast! ||| Juicy Dad for lyfe ||| 'idk i get a kick out of stupid things' - Jarms Yarng
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