Right, but not my point.

Only reason mafia would has to claim getting RB'ed (thus claiming the mafia RB) would be to clear them of suspicion. If E00 is scum, why would he be the one who does the claiming instead of OWB. E00 wasn't in any of the lists people were making during the night and only one person was suspecting him, Storr. If E00 was scum, it would be a much stronger play to continue RBing me or not RB anybody and not fake claim. There's literally no reason for E00 to fake-claim an RB that day.

At least I think so... I think it makes sense.

Obzy

United States525 Posts

November 07 2013 03:58 GMT

#1625

Regarding RB fakeclaims, we're sort of getting into "well... but what if..." territory. Anyone except myself could be the remaining scum, and if we ran into a LYLO situation, everyone (except myself, and confirmed cop checks- that is to say, where we have flipped a cop after he has claimed someone was town) should be considered. At the moment, though, I think it's reasonable to assume that the RB claims are both legitimate, and that E00e and Balla are both town as a result.

Like, I agree with your conclusion in the post above, Balla, but there will be a way that E00e could have a reason to fake-claim an RB that day. It may not be a good reason, and I don't think it happens, but it's certainly possible.

Focusing on Odin and nyxnyxnyx next sounds like the best idea to me, because nyx has opted out of town discussion by tunneling Storr - Storr is likely town due to onlywonderboy interactions - so under this assumption, nyx is incorrect in his tunnel. He hasn't been considered heavily, because the manner of his tunneling wasn't something that I'd reasonably expect a scum player to do. Odin, then, is likely the last scum largely due to process of elimination, everybody else has favorable interactions with flipped players, or has demonstrated a solid, pro-town mindset (to a point we would have to be paranoid to really consider them for tomorrow), or is innocent child. ^^

I'd rather focus on those two rather than include E00e in those assumptions, unless we wanted to include Balla for the same reason - pure paranoia directed towards the roleblock targets. (Paranoia can wait until we see something like two night kills, or until we reach a 3 person LYLO. Then, all bets are off, and everything should be considered feasible lol.)

hope that all makes sense

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 04:07 GMT

#1626

Well I don't see any possible good reason that E00 would fake claim. Any reasons would be bad, IMO. Regardless, we have TONS of time, so I don't think it's a good idea to shoot down anything at this point. Like we already have narrowed it down to low targets. Look at how much dead time we had yesterday. Let's just discuss everything.

As far as nyx though. Nyx didn't tunnel on storr yesterday. He was way ok with lynching either storr or OWB in interest of clearing one of them, similar to E00. He does things that I constantly think that nyx would absolutely NOT do as mafia. For example, the town listing on night2 after we lynched poofter. I just don't think nyx is mafia at all.

nyxnyxnyx

Indonesia2978 Posts

November 07 2013 04:11 GMT

#1627

could someone remind me why owb/Storr is unlikely? if that's the case then next day lynch of Odin should be an easy gg

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 04:12 GMT

#1628

Like I understand the reads. He's light content, very little analysis. Not to much super pro-town stuff. However I don't really see anything super anti-town. But so much stuff he did this game looks like completely anti-mafia. Voting poofter day1, waking up and unvoting E00, his town list on night2, questioning me during night2 on certain things which led me in the right direction.

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 04:13 GMT

#1629

On November 07 2013 13:11 nyxnyxnyx wrote:
could someone remind me why owb/Storr is unlikely? if that's the case then next day lynch of Odin should be an easy gg

Beyond the reasons that Jonny and I discussed on day2 and explained you. Just look at day3. Straight for OWB.

nyxnyxnyx

Indonesia2978 Posts

November 07 2013 04:13 GMT

#1630

alright. i'm pretty fixed on Odin. this game's almost too easy lol

nyxnyxnyx

Indonesia2978 Posts

November 07 2013 04:14 GMT

#1631

now's probably as a good a time as any to say it. sorry Storr! seems like i was mistaken :p

Vonthin

United States2864 Posts

November 07 2013 04:41 GMT

#1632

About why E00e is in the weak town read list:

Not a lot of posts to give me information, a good amount of his posts are just responding to accusations/questions directed at him. He has had some good posts which is why I think he is town like when he said Jonny was town and did vote for OWB twice so thats why I put him on the town side. RB claim could be genuine could also be fake. Its more what-ifs like you guys said and should only be looked upon if Odin ends up being town. If he does flip town everyone has to be looked into like Obzy said unless they are confirmed town by a cops reads.

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 04:46 GMT

#1633

I don't think it's what ifs... i think it would just be a BAD mafia play to do it... like actually an awful play.

There's no reason not to look at it now though seriously. We're already set on Odin so why don't we discuss it now? What else are we gonna talk about?

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 04:48 GMT

#1634

I can't think of any good reasons for them to do it like that... none.

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 05:25 GMT

#1635

Like I would even go so far as to say like my RB claim could easily be a fake claim... it makes sense right? I was already a town read, enforcing it with a mafia RB claim makes sense. Nobody has any reason to doubt me and I get a free pass the rest of the game.

But E00s? Nah dude. He's not a town read, he was under the radar mostly and wasn't a lynch candidate for D2. His scum teammate would be OWB right? OWB was definitely a lynch candidate. Why would E00 be the one to fake claim? And even if there was a reason for him to fake claim, why wouldn't he even TRY to save his teammate. That combined with his hardline on OWB. I just can't buy that its even a possibility that it's a fake claim. No way.

Anyways, rant over! I just like arguing, and there's nothing else to argue about

(

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 05:35 GMT

#1636

I'm gonna look really stupid if it turns out to be E00 afterall ^_^. Fuck it though hopefully the rest of the game makes me look smart LOL #yolo

nyxnyxnyx

Indonesia2978 Posts

November 07 2013 06:13 GMT

#1637

just out of curiosity, how many times can we afford to get it wrong assuming no-SK? (if we are wrong)

nyxnyxnyx

Indonesia2978 Posts

November 07 2013 06:16 GMT

#1638

nm i think i got it.

7 town 1 scum now, 6 town 1 scum after tonight's kill
*assume mislynch*
5 town 1 scum, down to 4 town 1 scum after night kill
*assume mislynch*
3 town 1 scum, down to 2 town 1 scum after night kill
can't get it wrong now

so we have 3 tries to get it right. should be easy

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 17:08 GMT

#1639

Also look at the timing of the claim. We had already laid out our plan and i had already voted storr BECAUSE there hadn't been a claim yet. If he was planning on fake claiming why would he have continued with it at that point when no claim was working more in his favor..

Balla24

2322 Posts

November 07 2013 20:20 GMT

#1640

btw if you're vig (1 shot or not idc) you should just shoot odin tonight, will save sooo much time... even if he's not mafia and if he is woohoo we saved 48 hrs ^_^