EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLVII - Page 4
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
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killerdog
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Also myrzeth switching his vote (without posting) is basically putting him right at the top of my scum list. | ||
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killerdog
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killerdog
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 , yay for silver linings.)On September 06 2013 07:29 Lord Velocity wrote: I didn't understand you Killer when you tried to pressure that I should be voted off and about me not having anything good to say about you, when I actually read you as town based on your actions and good logic before I assume you're responding to this post + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2013 05:54 killerdog wrote: Secondly, he doesn't really have any friends right now, he hasn't really defended anyone and has at various points called pretty much everyone scummy. So I feel that regardless of what he flips, we don't really learn anything. Compare that to the information we might get from lynching someone else. Say we lynch Infii, regardless of whether he flips scum or town, we have the potential to look at his past posts and maybe learn something from them. Not everyone has aggroed on him and he hasn't aggroed on very many people and we could maybe read something from that. First I'd like to say, I stated the reasons I felt it was wrong to lynch velocity on multiple occasions, and kept asking different people for a response to my reasoning to know whether they agreed or not. I don't remember anyone even acknowledging it, and that's why I decided not to push for him. As for the reason i just quoted, this is one I've had in my notes for a while. As the only two calls he really made were Umasi town, (which most people seem to agree with) and me town, from my perspective where I already know I'm town, a lynch on him doesn't give any information, as the "town" call on Umasi isn't really very dramatic. Therefore, with an hour to go before the lynch, I decided to give *my* reasons for not lynching LV, in the hopes that either some people would agree with my logic, or come with counter arguments, but everyone ignored it. @bereft, you're taking so many posts out of context. You justify bandwagoning a bit of pressure on him for his first post, but me doing the same move later when chairman ray jumps on the edit you find suspicious. You're also for some reason putting emphasis on "the timeline" of two posts. I hadn't read your list of "analysis" when i made the post below it. I did what I normally do, open up a post then slowly add stuff to it, while eating breakfast or whatever else is going on, then publish it. Anything I see which has been posted between me starting my post and me posting it I address afterwards/when i get back to my computer so I fail to see what relevance the order has. Also him saying I was probably town because I was willing to provide reads was 7 hours before you posted your "reads," when I was the only person who'd gone in depth on every player. (A note about those reads, there you are also going on me for the "loaded questions" post, look at the timing of the post, it was meant to be part of the longer post but I just forgot to include it in it.) You've also failed to address the fact that Umasi has been defending Velocity on multiple occasions, I even specifically asked him what his thoughts on velocity were, + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2013 06:27 Umasi wrote: see my other post :| although myrz vote is super fucking weird again And he referenced me a post where he only talks about voting for chairman ray. Sure, a little after he says + Show Spoiler + But by that point velocity was very much in the clear regarding votes, and it would have taken something of a miracle for him to get voted off. This was the first non positive mention Umasi makes of Velocity, and yet find my interactions with him more suspicious. Anyway, not sure if I'll be back before tonight, if anyone has any questions just ask. | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
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killerdog
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killerdog
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Apologies for just disappearing off the face of the earth for a while, it's 4 am here and I haven't slept yet, so I might leave the fine toothed combing til tomorrow, but I'll try and make a post respond to any questions I find directed at me and say a few things which I think are important over the next hour or two. Gonna go get some caffeine. | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On September 08 2013 02:49 infii wrote: + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2013 06:33 killerdog wrote: I really don't like letting myr live til day 2, but hopefully he'll start playing the game tomorrow. We wont lose from a second mislynch (if ray is town) so I guess it's not the end of the world if we have to kill myr off tomorrow for still being afk. ##vote chairman ray He states no reason for voting him but he already said earlier that ray would be a likely candidate for him to lynch. Also I assume he just agrees with Umasi's argumentation. But the fact that he voted on ray last although he had ray under suspicion for almost a day makes the whole thing fishy. I'd gone into the night wanting to follow one of two lynch plans. 1. Lynch myrzeth if he didn't join the game properly 2. Lynch a scum suspect. I felt the best move at the time was to lynch myrzeth, for several reasons which I stated then. (If you want claraification of any of my posts from then, just ask.) So I decided to post my reasons for why I wanted to lynch myrzeth, hoping to either show why he was the best lynch, or have any flaws in my logic pointed out/have someone explain why someone else would be a better lynch. The first movement seemed (from what I remember) to be several people gunning for an LV. I, (again for reasons I've already posted) didn't feel like he was an optimum n1 lynch, and posted my reasoning for this, it basically got ignored by everyone (even when I specifically asked a few people to address the points I'd raised,) and I didn't feel comfortable following along in a vote train with people who weren't willing to discuss my reasons for not voting for him. Furthermore, Umasi, (who at the time I had down as one of my town reads, I'll give an updated list of reads once I've been through everything properly, no point in throwing uneducated assumptions around.) had defended/deflected from Lord Velocity on several occasions. After that motion seemed to pass, the second target became Chairman ray. He'd been on my suspicious list for a while, (see my earlier (latter part of day 1) list of player reads) and the reason I'd held off on him was in part because of a post by blurry (Who was also one of my town reads, although not as high as umasi because of much lower activity) which was what I was referring to when I said "I'd been suspicions of ray but some people have listed him as town reads) or something. On September 06 2013 04:17 Blurry wrote: My opinion is that Chairman Ray is slightly town because he did advance the discussion and brought up concerns about players nobody else had really said anything against. By saying he suspects Umasi who right now is probably the biggest leader in discussion he goes after the player who I would guess has the biggest sway. I honestly can't remember how the lynch on chairman got started at this point, but I remember the reason I switched was because several people had voiced not wanting to lynch myrzeth/wanting to try to lynch scum (blurry and umasi are the two names I can remember standing out off the top of my head.) and as the number of votes on myrzeth at the time made it seem like him getting lynched was very unlikely, decided it was a choice between LV and chairman ray. I asked Umasi for his thoughts on velocity vs myrzeth vs chairman ray because he'd been defensive of velocity without every really giving a reason why up unitl that point. He responded by voting on chairman ray, and I decided that if Holyflare and umasi, my two strongest town reads, were the people pushing the case to lynch him, and the people pushing velocity were on my "unknown/scummy" list, combined with the fact noone had adressed my points against voting velocity, led me to vote ray. I didn't realise myrzeth had switched his vote until after I'd voted charles (it was mentioned in this thread after i posted my vote, which is where i saw it first.) It took a minute or two for exactly how scummy that seemed to me to sink in (there was a lot of stuff going backwards and forwards then) but i very nearly switched my vote back. I didn't because 1. I didn't think myrzeth would get lynched based off the votes on him at the time 2. The idea had already been floated, and it didn't take off with everyone, given there was so little time left I doubted we could have a proper discussion about it. 3. Chairman ray wasn't doing the best job of defending himself, and didn't even try until it was very late (in retrospect I think he only realised he was actually about to get lynched at the last minute), and holyflare was jumping all over him. Even blurry ended up saying he felt some of what ray was saying at this point seemed scummy. The last minute votes on myrzeth also surprised me, but I don't think suddenly switching votes in the last few minutes is ever a good idea. I'm aware now that a last second vote would have swung it in favour of myrzeth, but heavenz and chairman voted really fucking late. Obviously I regret that now, but I still don't think last second jumps are good for town unless someone lets something huge slip, or a blue role gives some amazing evidence. On September 08 2013 05:36 Lord Velocity wrote: Something serious came up within my family and I am 100% certain I no longer have time to play with you all, I'm so sorry that the inconvenience happened, I wish town the best of luck. Good bye all! Oh shit, just saw this post. Goodbye man, hopefully it all turns out ok. -- So how do substitutions work when someone willingly leaves the game? Will he get subbed before the lynch, or does he just not vote, then get replaced in the night post. Also, given that there are two potential modkills and only one replacement (koshi,) does that mean one of them just dies? Reading Infii's big post, It feels a bit like rather then analysing how ray got lynched, he's making a case against holyflare. I'm not saying making cases against people isn't town play, (it's sort of a pillar of it.) But personally that post felt more like after his analysis, he'd decided holyflare was scum, and decided to try and prove it. just a note. I'm not sure how I feel about the accusation that, forgive me for paraphrasing a little, Holyflare engineered chairman ray's lynching. I'll respond to that more fully after I've gone through the lynching posts more thoroughly, because that isn't a question I feel comfortable tackling without having done so. Not sure how to deal with the "roleblock" claim either, I don't think that lends any more evidence towards him being town then him just saying "I'm town" does. I'm just gonna note it down, and if he turns out to flip town at some point or get cop checked or whatever, then we know there's a roleblocker of some type in the game. Maybe we could try and work something out by asking who would roleblock infii, but thats a wifom-y road. -- A note on bereft, I acknowledge that he has work and therefore can't be as active just before lynches, (although that shouldn't stop him being present for the next lynch right?) But in my book that means we should expect more from him during the rest of the day/night. As holyflare said before, just before the lynch is the time when you can pressure people hard and scum are most likely to make mistakes/reveal their actions. If we can't pressure you properly then, then it's your job to make yourself worth keeping around despite the fact you're a little more of a liability then most because we wont be able to get as good reads on you. -- Holyflares defence against Infii's accusations, I was confused by how he'd quoted infii for wayy too long here. It eventually made sense when i read everything as infii's post except the bold, which I read as holyflares responses, (sorry, my brain is half asleep.) In the future can people try their best to use the quotes feature? I know it takes a bit of extra time, but it improves readability dramatically. It also makes it much easier for people to quote your post without everything getting confused. On the actual contents of the post, again, I'm gonna refrain from judging until I've had more time to go over stuff. -- I had a bit about umasi not responding to my questions, but i just looked in the thread and saw he had. Yeah I'm still awake, gonna post what i have so far so you don't think i've gone :p | ||
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killerdog
Denmark6522 Posts
On September 08 2013 13:01 Bereft wrote: what i'd like to know is why you switched your vote to chairman ray at the last minute. looking at your post history, you say the following: then all of a sudden with zero explanation: i agree you've gone out of your way to explain why you don't think LV is a good day 1 lynch candidate. but what's your explanation for suddenly switching to ray with zero explanation when you were so adamant that myrzeth was the best choice before? myrzeth may have been lynched had you kept your vote on him. i'd like to hear about your change of heart. First of all, it's worth noting that almost an hour and a half had passed between the two posts, and a lot of stuff had been said by various people in that time. I've talked a little about how my perception of the night went in the post above, but basically I was getting the feeling that a lot of people weren't behind the idea of lynching myrzeth. At the time I switched votes, I believe there was only one other guy on him. Infii, heavenz and ray all put their votes on him after that. Given that other then myrzeth, the two people in the limelight were LV and ray. I'd personally voiced why i didn't want to kill LV, and at this point my read on the situation was myrzeth wasn't gonna get lynched, (velocity was the only other guy on him iirc.) Therefore, given the choice between someone I felt "against" lynching, and someone I was rather suspicious of myself, you can see why I would lean towards ray. I decided that, as you were my main town read at the time, and had yet to go on velocity at all this game (other then the pressure at the very start,) I'd ask you for your reads on velocity and ray. On September 06 2013 06:20 killerdog wrote: Umasi, whats your opinion of voting for velocity? You've lightly defended him in the past, but you've also indicated that if there was a strong scum read you'd prefer to lynch them instead of going for the afk/lurker. Would you rather lynch myrzeth, Chairman Ray or Lord Velocity? You ended up not responding to the asked for read on velocity, but instead went onto ray with a vote. Given that I was leaning that way already, that was just the final straw which pushed me over the edge. When I found out myrzeth had switched his vote and people were piling votes onto myrzeth again, I very nearly switched back, but ended up making the snap decision to stay on ray. 6 am, I'm in denmark. But i have priorities :p | ||
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On September 08 2013 13:14 Bereft wrote: probably, it's 5am. umasi, since you're here, why'd you unvote infii? of the top of my head i think you said something that he defended himself well and FOS'd holyflare. why does him calling holyflare scum convince you? i just read through his posting history; nothing he's posted seems terribly substantial or memorable to me.. Somehow i must have deleted the quote again. | ||
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Firstly, here are the facts as I see it. 1. If we mislynch again, it's mylo 3. 2. we have two potential modkills (pharcyd3 and lord velocity) and only 1 reserve player (koshi, assuming he's allowed to be used.) 3. myrzeth is still alive. 4. if only one of the modkills gets replaced, and the other dies, then day 3 becomes lylo if we mislynch today. I see this lynch as being a choice between either a) Lynching myrzeth. Afk, useless as a townie, and has a super suspicious vote on chairman. b) Lynching a scum read. One of my bigger fears at this point is reaching day 3, and being in a lylo/mylo situaiton where myrzeth is still alive and still hasn't spoken. I probably don't have to explain why that sucks, but it means that if we mislynch someone else today, we can't lynch myrzeth d3 unless we're willing to bet the entire game that he's mafia, and not the anti-towniest of towns. On the flip side, if we all just agree that we're lynching myrzeth today, that basically takes all pressure of the other mafia members. A situation almost as shitty as having an afk still alive in lylo is lynching myrzeth, he being town, and then going into day three with it being mylo, and having almost no new leads because everyone just voted for myrzeth then chatted about LoL or something for 48 hours. :p Either way it's starting to feel like we're going to have to rely on information from blues to win us the game day 3 unless one of the mafia fucks up, which is a situation I really don't want to have to be in, especially considering there's a non negligible chance that pharcyd3 (or god forbid myrzeth) is our cop. In which case we'd be sitting day unable to do anything. (and this is assuming there isn't a framer/the framer and cop havn't hit the same guy yet. I'm honestly not sure what the best course of action is at this point, but it's starting to feel like we're going to have take a calculated risk with a lynch either d2 or d3. Thoughts? | ||
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killerdog
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should be 1. If we mislynch again it's mylo day 3* And I feel like it's important we find out whether either pharcyd3 or LV are going to get replaced, or killed off. Because that decides whether we're going to have the option to sleep day 3 or not. Sup mods, can you tell us whether pharcyd3/LV will get straight up killed, and if you don't know yet when will you be able to tell us? | ||
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killerdog
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On September 08 2013 13:47 Holyflare wrote: maybe I am, and killer the lol talk was only the last page there has been a shit tonne of stuff before that although it's mainly just me and infii Yeah i know, i was just using it as an example :p | ||
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killerdog
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On September 08 2013 13:41 Umasi wrote: because he was correct /wifom BOMB you mean my not responding about vel, killer? I think I mentioned which way I thought when I voted for ray On September 06 2013 06:24 Umasi wrote: velocity has both good and bad things in his filter, but I think you're scummier than him. Heavenz and infii aren't really off, they're still -.-.-.-.--egh, but you're pretty out there. Oh yeah. I see it now. I'm not sure if I just didn't read it yesterday or did read but forgot since then, Either way, my mistake. apologies. You responded to my post with + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2013 06:27 Umasi wrote: see my other post :| although myrz vote is super fucking weird again Which i assumed was pointing to + Show Spoiler + On September 06 2013 06:24 Umasi wrote: ##VOTE RAY ray scumslips don't exist, and you've done a lot of hunting for scumslips this game, with your qt talk at the beginning, then your accusing LV with quick topic crap.. I'm not buying it. He might have known it was an abbreviation, or he did what you did at the beginning and capitalized that. Why are you pressuring him hard on something as insignificant as THAT? sure, you 'could' be correct, and he's actually scum, and you caught a scum slip but..... not buying it. Had problems with this post a while ago, because it was like 'no guys they still could be scummy', which is correct, but not because of some kind of scum tactics, you just state every possible scenario which is totally pointless. velocity has both good and bad things in his filter, but I think you're scummier than him. Heavenz and infii aren't really off, they're still -.-.-.-.--egh, but you're pretty out there. | ||
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Final thoughts, I still don't like heavenz dumping his vote at the last second. His reasoning in the thread was On September 06 2013 06:58 heavenz wrote: f´´k it, I go safe before my vote is wasted. ##unvote ##vote myrezth I just wanted to have stated my seriousness on you blurry. What does "I go safe" even mean, and how is putting your vote on myrzeth, guy who is currently at 2 votes compared to ray's 5, any less of a "waste" then leaving it on blurry. I'd love some clarification on that. If he's already mentioned it, apologies, but I couldn't see it on his filter. The only recent post he has basically feels like him saying he has no idea what's going on and apologising for it. (which also felt a bit wierd.) Anyway, I'm off to sleep. | ||
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On September 08 2013 14:11 Lord Velocity wrote: Sorry I'm on the road right now because of said emergency, and I messaged Shiao for a replacement, but if not I apologize once again. No problem, wish you the best of luck whatever it is. Real life comes first. | ||
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out of the players left, obviously we can't really lynch koshi or LV and Umasi/Holyflare are both still my stronger townier reads, so not in my sights either. For me that leaves 5 options. I'll quickly give brief thoughts on each: infii + Show Spoiler + I was having a hard time getting a read on him day 1, but it feels like he's become more active day 2. He's pointed a few things out which don't really make sense in my opinion. (fx, he said the umasi vs holyflare argument was likely umasi being scum pressuring holyflare, but then goes on to list holyflare as a scum read.) I've been getting a very anti anti holyflare vibe for a while though, which confuses me. I'm not sure why a single mafia would pressure one of the players generally perceived as town so hard alone, without anyone agreeing with them. And given how aggressive holyflare has been so far it would seem really risky from his perspective. I'm not sure what infii would be hoping to get out of it. heavenz + Show Spoiler + As I said earlier, On September 08 2013 14:08 killerdog wrote: Final thoughts, I still don't like heavenz dumping his vote at the last second. His reasoning in the thread was What does "I go safe" even mean, and how is putting your vote on myrzeth, guy who is currently at 2 votes compared to ray's 5, any less of a "waste" then leaving it on blurry. I'd love some clarification on that. If he's already mentioned it, apologies, but I couldn't see it on his filter. The only recent post he has basically feels like him saying he has no idea what's going on and apologising for it. (which also felt a bit wierd.) Anyway, I'm off to sleep. I'd very much like a clarification of his vote-post, which confuses me, and for him to join in the discussion. He has only posted twice day 2, once saying he's confused and once with philosophical thoughts of how myrzeth/koshi/velocity mafia basically screws us. @heavenz, who would you want to lynch tonight? myrzeth + Show Spoiler + His vote onto ray with no comment moved him from my "no idea, but he's useless so we should lynch him" list to my "scum. kill." list. I'm not sure if I quite agree with holyflares logic that lynching him is anti town, but I'll deal with that later. bereft + Show Spoiler + He feels like he's been very tunnel vision-y, first he goes on velocity hard. He mentioned he wanted to hear something from myrzeth "in the next two hours" but myrzeth stays silent and then two hours later he votes for velocity. (I even felt like i ended up on his suspicious list purely by having an opinion on velocity.) Has a vote on myrzeth. lonemeow + Show Spoiler + He's been relatively passive in terms of giving analysis, quite a few questions asked of people, but not very much followup pressure. Hard to get a read on but I'm definitely not 100% sure he's scum. | ||
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killerdog
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