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TL Mafia LXII: TL Noir
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Hi everybody! | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Probably will take me a couple days to catch up fully. Somebody give me major points of interest if you don't mind. Also, do we have a full day or a few hours left in the cycle? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Will probably just read through Ceph's filter next, decide yay or nay, and then catch up the rest at night, | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On September 26 2013 11:18 Cephiro wrote: OH MY GOD ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME T_T Two blue lynches in a row. This is as hard as an anal rape can get Q_Q He doesn't seem like the type of player that would rage quit in my experience so his absence probably means he just doesn't want to reveal any more info. Compared to aperture, his activity is much weaker. I'll probably post my other reads before the night post. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
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On September 30 2013 19:14 Koshi wrote: Ahyeah why I said Kita was confirmed town. Hosts kinda fucked town over day 1 with the shortened time Town is losing this I cannot believe hosts are now going to give scum a night 3 replacement. + a town replacement in n3 can be shot. ---> Kita is town. Maybe it's lame but seriously, hosts are not going to swap a scummer n3 in this game. This is really sketchy reasoning for knowing that I'm town. At first I thought you might be a parity cop or something with your weird instance that I was town, but now that you're trying to explain it with this makes it seem as if you're trying to buddy up with me or something. I will definitely need to tackle your filter. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I think the most important thing to start with is the night hits since it's far too often that people will ignore the suspicions of those who are dead. While a player flipping town doesn't necessarily mean their reads are right, it does mean that you don't need to worry about their cases having an ulterior motive of pushing a mislynch. It's also common sense that the mafia team will go after people they deem as threats. Blazinghand: Nothing really of note. Vet kill. Vayne: cephiro is mentioned in a list of several people. Also suspicious of rayn, Mocsta, JAT WoS: FT, VE Makes a vig list to include ceph/Risen/iamp Marv: Guaranteed ceph as mafia and strongly pushed for him day two. Convinced the town to lynch him after death. yamato: Mocsta, VE, Sent Zaragon: Lists top three preferences as FT, Ceph, Mocsta Umasi: Wanted to lynch Mocsta today. Also suspicious of sent and FT. Mattchew: FT, stutters, Sent (and Marv -_-) FT and Mocsta's name are the most common scum suspects of players that have died. VE and sent are also mentioned multiple times. The three night kills last night are especially suspicious since they targeted players that didn't look incredibly townie and weren't obvious veteran kills. As for ceph's filter, there wasn't a ton of interactions with players that haven't already flipped and his main lynch preference was on a player that already flipped. The player he has the most interaction with is JAT. After having a little back and forth, he doesn't put much effort into his preferred lynch target, voting LoneMeow both cycles as the only realistic candidate. He sends a softball VE's way with no real follow-up, which could possibly be an attempt at scum-to-scum interaction. On September 26 2013 11:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Vote Count FirmTofu (1): Risen justanothertownie (1): kushm4sta Cephiro (9): s&b, justanothertownie, raynpelikoneet, Koshi. [UoN]Sentinel Umasi (1): FirmTofu LoneMeow (13): Coagulation, ObviousOne, Stutters695, iamperfection, Mocsta. Mr. Cheesecake, VisceraEyes, deconduo, Pandain LoneMeow is lynched Day two is clearly the most important cycle that we have had so far. On day three, there was little resistance to a Ceph lynch, but on day two, things were highly contested between Ceph and LoneMeow. I've removed the players that have already flipped. One thing that I found suspicious is that FT and Risen would avoid the main wagon even though they had zero chance of a lynch. Kush is also guilty of this, but lets ignore that -_- More importantly however is that the lynch was tied 7-7 with thirty minutes left and Cephiro leading the lynch: [B]On September 26 2013 10:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Vote Count FirmTofu (3): Risen, LoneMeow, Zaragon justanothertownie (1): kushm4sta Cephiro (7): s&b, justanothertownie, raynpelikoneet, yamato77, Deconduo, Koshi Pandain (1): [UoN]Sentinel Zaragon (2): Mr. Cheesecake [UoN]Sentinel (1): Umasi Umasi (1): FirmTofu LoneMeow (7): Coagulation, ObviousOne, VisceraEyes, Pandain, Cephiro, Stutters695 [u]geript (1): Mocsta [b][blue]Cephiro is currently set to be lynched (first to 7). At this point, Sent unvotes and puts another vote on Ceph. Even though his name came up twice in the hit list last night, I think this earns him a ton of town cred for putting the mafia team in a position where they would need to pull off a several vote swap. A bus at this point would be incredibly risky with it not being clear that the massive vote swap would occur. With the LoneMeow vote, it is now 8-7, with the tiebreak going to a scum lynch. The doctor claim comes at 9:50, which is really important since at this point he is not leading the vote. There would need to be TWO votes that are swapped for a ceph vote not to happen. Between a doctor lynch and a mafia lynch, there is no better situation for the mafia team to pull of a swing. iamp, Mocsta, CC, VE, deconduo, and pandain all pull off the swap. Now clearly all of these players cannot be mafia, but those that are part of this list should be considered incredibly suspicious. More importantly, I think you have to look at the reasoning for their switch: Before the lynch, iamp does not have a strong opinion between the two players. He appears concerned with both player's activity in the hour before the lynch, but doesn't commit one way or the other. In my opinion, he is waiting to the last minute to see if the ceph lynch can be avoided. He threatens to vote for LoneMeow's switch to Ceph, but what does he expect him to do? Does he honestly think that a town Meow wouldn't vote for Ceph in that situation? Ceph has a vote on Meow and is equally afk, but this isn't an issue? When the doctor claim comes out, he is suddenly strongly in favor of a Meow lynch as if he has already made up his mind and shows little interest in seeing both ways. Mocsta is all over the place in the final hour before the lynch. He goes back and forth multiple times to the point where it's difficult to say that any of his reads are even real or if he is just making them up on the spot. Initially, he buys the doctor claim as legit, so naturally he decides to move over to geript who has no chance of being lynched. He seems to come to this conclusion without actually checking whether or not he mentions yamato, until the point is brought up by someone else. Why does he believe the doctor claim if he clearly hasn't researched things himself? He then comes back with the fake doctor claim to ensure a Meow lynch. I can't pretend to understand this. Just minutes ago he believed Meow is the doctor. Now he is so confident that he is willing to lie to secure the lynch? At the same time, trying to pull this off as mafia is extremely gutsy. It's a high risk, high reward type of move. I'm pretty stumped with him and will likely need to look into his history first. VE's role in this entire sequence is incredibly scummy. He is playing the back seat role and there is an apparent lack of interest in the lynch. He votes LoneMeow, swaps to Ceph, then back to Meow based on one-liners. He mentions that he thinks it is going to be a mislynch, but puts no effort into swinging things to someone like geript. He shares that he could be in favor of player X or Y, but he clearly doesn't care enough to get others to move their vote. In the end, he tries to put a lot of blame on Mocsta, even though VE deserves just as much blame for the mislynch. CC, deconduo, and pandain also were part of the swap, but I think it seems more likely that they were the town participants. I haven't really put much time reading into these players. I've also totally ignored Risen for the moment. The LoneMeow/Ceph lynch probably wasn't completely one-sided, but the individuals on the correct side of the lynch shouldn't be a priority today or tomorrow. The four players that I'm looking at right now are FT, iamp, Mocsta and VE (I only think one of the final two are likely mafia). I need to take a break for a little bit, but when I return, I'll put together a case on who we should be lynching today. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Suppose Mocsta is either not an option or has already flipped, would you be in favor of lynching either of these players? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 01 2013 05:34 Koshi wrote: I am just praying that Mocsta, rayn are scummers Koshi #1 scum hunter when divine intervention is on his side. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 01 2013 06:25 VisceraEyes wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: iamperfection Could you explain why you like iamp over FT? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
The case against FirmTofu ![[image loading]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51A%2BVhf1zzL._SL500_AA300_.jpg) As I mentioned earlier, WaveofShadow, Zaragon, Umasi, and Mattchew all mentioned FT as one of their mafia suspects before their deaths. All three players that died last night wanted to kill him. These kills were strange enough that I think it is likely that they were picked out for their reads. On day one, FT is clearly around and reading the thread at the start of the game, yet he fails to provide a lynch candidate. He appears to be afk towards the end of the day and never votes, so I'll chalk this up as a null tell. On September 23 2013 19:23 FirmTofu wrote: Finally got some decent reads. :D Firstly, I want to address the vigi situation. As a vigilante you want to shoot the people who are currently useless and are unlikely to become useful in the future. I'll go through a few people and address the value of shooting them. We have recent replacement inactives in Malongo, Deconduo, and Blazinghand. These guys deserve some time to catch up to the thread. Their deaths would not serve a higher purpose in the short-term. Then we have people like VayneAuthority, kush, and VE. These are people that are capable of strong town games, but are currently either just trolling or posting with a subdued interest. I would say that this group of people becomes more easy to read as the game progresses, hence they aren't the best vig shots. Tier 3 are people who are sitting in the semi-lurker category, but have some posts of substance. I would include Pandain, JAT, Mr.CC, Zaragon, Sentinel, Umasi, Stutters, and a few others I can't remember in this grouping. I believe that this group probably holds the majority of the scumteam. These are people that want to stay just above lurker territory so as to avoid suspicion. I think most of these guys would be good vig shots as long as some discretion is used. Finally you have the completely useless. These are people that aren't trying to get better and aren't going to play better when asked. They are either hardcore lurking or posting little to no substance. Examples include Risen, Coag, and Lonemeow. Anyone who is in this category is a decent shot from a vig perspective, but is less likely to be scum than the previous category I mentioned. Once night two starts, he comes out with the trademark "large post that says absolutely nothing". Apparently addressing the vig situation really means "I'm going to list 10 different players you could consider shooting based on activity". It really shouldn't taken this much time for him to essentially tell us that he is fine with a third of the game getting shot. He later posts his read on Zaragon and tells the vig to shoot him. If this was his scum read, then why did he just spend the last fifteen minutes with his list post? Throughout the game, he produces several half-hearted cases against players, but he never actually goes after his targets. There is a limited amount of interaction with the players he suspects. A lot of the time, he asks others to ask him questions, rather than contribution on topics that he finds important on his own. On September 24 2013 08:28 FirmTofu wrote: Cephiro looks like me in Desert with less trolling. He's an excellent vig shot but a mediocre lynch. He sounds like he's having trouble catching up to the thread, an issue I can relate to. The rest of his filter is pretty crappy, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily. This post is a really generic soft defend. He doesn't want to commit to a town read on Ceph, so he states that he is fine with a vig shot, yet wouldn't lynch him. This allows him to vote elsewhere later on in the cycle. On September 26 2013 13:48 FirmTofu wrote: I'm pretty disappointed that I couldn't make the deadline today. You guys went full retard. Never go full retard. I just skimmed the thread on my phone so I'm gonna do a full read through and do some analysis. This is the scummiest post in his filter. I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing. He criticizes town for the LoneMeow lynch. The problem? He hasn't defended LoneMeow all game. He voted Umasi, a player who had no chance of getting lynched and essentially went afk again when the lynch was being decided. I gave him a pass for doing it on day one, but this is now two days in a row where he has displayed his apathy for the lynch. When he performs his post lynch analysis, he still never acknowledges that cephiro is scum. So if he is frustrated about town going "full retard", how could he think it was a terrible lynch if the alternative wasn't incredibly scummy in his opinion? On September 27 2013 14:02 FirmTofu wrote: Also, I think Cephiro is a better lynch than Mocsta. I still don't see the scum motivation in what Mocsta did and Cephiro has been altogether useless this entire game. On day three, he votes geript, but makes this post about Cephiro. Who exactly is he trying to convince? The vote is clearly going to be a blow out. Despite not being able to see scum motivation from Mocsta, he has a revelation post flip and notices the connection. Is this honestly something that he wouldn't consider beforehand? There is a pretty apologetic theme from most of his posts and there are several points where he seems more interested in defending himself or making himself look good with unnaturally worded posts, rather than pushing his prefered mafia lynch. I'm not sure if there is anyone in this game that actually has a town read on FT, which generally points to mafia. ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 01 2013 09:10 Mr. Cheesecake wrote: I'm just going to claim because my role is actually useless. Doesn't matter because all the dudes are getting framed and everyone is GF so whatever. I'm parity cop and VE was different than Umasi. Umasi was the same as BH. -.- Fucking framer bullshit is so stupid. Should known since MZ sent me "Same" and then 2 minutes later said "Wait, he's different nvm" You should have three checks unless I'm missing something? | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On September 24 2013 12:21 Risen wrote: EBWOP: Nope, never mind. No way a town FT comes out with a vote on VE. On September 25 2013 02:41 Risen wrote: I'm down for lynching anyone here, but would definitely prefer Cephiro or FT. Probably FT at this point. On September 26 2013 02:13 Risen wrote: Again, lynch candidates should be FT or Cephiro. I would prefer a FT lynch over Cephiro, but I do think both are scum so I'll lynch either. On September 26 2013 02:21 Risen wrote: I'm not moving my vote until it becomes clear Cephiro is going to be lynched over FT, who still, in spite of no redeeming qualities in his posting today, is not the leading lynch candidate. Team plz On September 27 2013 12:27 Risen wrote: Scum guarantees are: Mocsta, Geript. My top scum reads outside these two are Cephiro and FT. On September 28 2013 01:46 Risen wrote: Zaragon the sad thing is that I actually have a very strong null read on Mocsta, but he has to be lynched. Not while we have so many clearly scummy people (Cephiro, Mr. CC, FT, Geript) but certainly once those four are taken care of. On September 30 2013 06:29 Risen wrote: I don't know how FT slipped my mind. He's on the level of VE/Matt in terms of wanting him dead. ______________________________________ On October 01 2013 12:07 Risen wrote: mayyyyybe FT. If I were to vote FT it would be only because he got saved D1 and has subsequently done nothing the entire game. Like... if you got saved wouldn't you play the game? He's not actually a scum read because of his posting, though. He's barely above any other lurker. So what exactly happened that changed your mind? You went from strong scum read on FT, to excluding him from your scum list and deciding that his posting isn't particularly scummy with the only reason you would lynch him being poor host meta. Why the huge flop? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 01 2013 12:24 Risen wrote: I keep forgetting about him and as other people post and appear scummy he slips further from my mind Well you called him scummy last cycle and now you stated that his posts aren't particularly scummy. What changed your mind about this? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Consolidating is a sketchy reason when there is 1 vote a piece. Between the two, do you have a preference? | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote: "trademark post that says nothing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum play this way in the past. What is the purpose of that long post about a night shot if you name 10 different people to consider shooting. Why not simply tell the vig to shoot your number one or two scum read, like you do a couple posts later? You aren't addressing the vig situation like you're saying if you make a list post. On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote: "I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum showing up after lynch to yell at town. Why did you call the lynch retarded if you didn't share a town read on LoneMeow and you stated earlier that Ceph was a bad lynch decision. What is there to get upset about? Rather than passing this off as a generalization, can you address the real point? You didn't exactly put in any effort to push your preference. On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote: However, these heuristics simply do not hold true for me. Kita has never played with me and does not know that I play this way as town and scum. So are you saying that as town, you generally have no interest in convincing others and vote for players that have no chance of being lynched every cycle? I don't see why a meta case is superior to a case that points out mafia tendencies. You said yourself that you play similar as town and mafia, so why should it matter if I've played with you before to be aware of your play? On October 01 2013 16:37 FirmTofu wrote: Did anyone notice this in Deconduo's filter? Votes Cephiro, sounding very confident... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071¤tpage=191#3813 ...then switches to geript randomly with a pretty shitty reason when all hell broke loose between the LM and Cephiro lynches. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071¤tpage=200#3981 This is the perfect scum move. It's silent, but it did a good job to guarantee that LM would be lynched instead of Cephiro. On October 01 2013 17:12 FirmTofu wrote: Right now, I'd rather kill deconduo. My case on him is a few posts back. Do you honestly think this "case" is enough to convince everyone that deconduo should be lynched today? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On September 26 2013 10:36 iamperfection wrote: ceph bothered to show up lone didn't even bother to look up the deadline. On September 26 2013 09:25 Cephiro wrote: EBWOP: Also voting for LoneMeow now, as it doesn't seem any other lynch is going to happen. ##vote LoneMeow iamp clearly has a double-standard at the end of the day two lynch. Earlier in the cycle, he mentioned that he doesn't have a preference between the two and that he has decided to sheep marv because he trusts his judgement. While ceph does return before the deadline, he doesn't post anything of value, stating that he would be open to a deconduo switch, which wasn't happening. He votes LoneMeow because he is really the only choice to save himself. On September 26 2013 10:47 iamperfection wrote: lone your obviously here if all your going to do is vote and afk i will kill you. However, when Lone actually does show up, he attacks him for the Cephiro vote. When LoneMeow comes up with the Doctor claim, iamp immediately distrusts his claim. LoneMeow is claiming Doctor when he is not even leading the lynch and a multi-vote swap would be necessary, like I pointed out earlier. Notice how he decides LoneMeow is lying even before he looks back through the filter to see if there is any mention of yamato. He has made his decision ahead of looking for evidence. He refuses to consider the alternative that LoneMeow could be telling the truth and never provides an explanation of why he would lie in this situation if he didn't need the votes to survive. I think a town iamp wouldn't be so suddenly decisive on a situation he was so wishy washy for most of the day. He seems to have something to gain on day two, by pushing the last minute swing so strongly. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
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I would be pretty happy with either of the top two though. | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 00:17 Mocsta wrote: And why would town want to be mislynched? Either alignment wants to be saved from the noose. Frankly, kitamin/oberyn, i expected a bit more common sense coming from you. It's not that my problem is that you would support another lynch candidate, it's that you would support every other lynch candidate. I'm still not sure enough on you that I'd want to lynch you over FT though. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 00:21 justanothertownie wrote: Is iamp a good townie generally? If yes I think I prefer to lynch him over FT. FT is a horrible townie and I am still not entirely sure if this or scum FT is the case. iamp is an excellent townie from my experience. He is a common n1 or n2 mafia hit. What makes you prefer iamp over FT? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 00:00 Risen wrote: JAT blank the thread and just read those four's filters. This isn't a lurker lynch on Stutters, this is a liar lynch. His being a lurker just makes it seem like a lurker lynch. Stutters seems like the most likely mislynch bait in my opinion. I don't think a "liar lynch" really makes sense, since a town or a mafia player really wouldn't want say they are working on a post, then never deliver. There is no scum benefit for saying something like that and then going away. He has been pretty much absent the last few days. I can see him being town, I can see him being mafia. I would much rather go after a player with a filter that you can actually analyze when a kp is one the line. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
No, do you think I am? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 00:51 Risen wrote: How can you say this and have FT at the top of people you want lynched? Both players are not contributing. However, FT is attempting to appear as if he is contributing, while stutters is simply gone. Look at these phrases. They are far too self-aware to be town. FirmTofu "As town, I am more interested in determining his alignment." "I can and will redeem myself for whatever you may think makes me scum." ""Finally got some decent reads." "Now for a solid scum read!" "Now I have to sift through this nonsense to find something of value..." "This isn't spamming. I'm trying to solve this game" Also, look how concerned he is about other's opinions of his. He spends more time looking for others to question him, than he does questioning people he actually thinks are scummy. FirmTofu "Any questions for me?" "If you want to discuss why my thoughts are poorly reasoned, I willing to have a go at it." "If you have any questions for me, I will answer them." "Marv, you need anything from me?" "You've said numerous times that it would be really useful to know my alignment because it would help decipher the votecount for Day 1. How exactly would this help you? " "VE, you seem convinced I am scum. Would you like to ask me any questions that could help you read me? I will answer them to the best of my ability." "Just ask me whatever and I'll respond as best I can." | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On September 25 2013 11:55 iamperfection wrote: 12: Cephiro- seems to be always catching up for some reason and his last catching up post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071¤tpage=133#2647 he promised to be a good townie going forward he didnt do shit. honestly i dont really know but fuck it ill say scum because fuck him. 24: LoneMeow- dont know: calling stuff wierd but not scummy here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071¤tpage=35#690 scum do that because they dont have the balls to actually call someone scum. fucking martyer. suspicious of umasi though gives me pause might be super bad town. plus these days people who martyer have kind of been flipping town unfortunatly. On September 27 2013 10:59 iamperfection wrote: Scummers cephiro- i sheep marv On September 27 2013 11:12 iamperfection wrote: fine and all but marv guarantees ceph is scum. he guarantees it iamp, could you please explain to me the reason that you went from ceph to LoneMeow? The only thing I can see in your flip in policy is that you liked that ceph was around for a couple of posts. What exactly about these posts that ceph made was enough to overturn your decision? Also, you call LoneMeow a bad town. Why is it that you were so unwilling to believe he was bad town with the doctor claim? Why is it that you decided he was a liar before actually looking through his filter for a reference to yamato? Why is it that you've taken a backseat role for all four lynches? This isn't the town iamp I'm used to seeing. | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 02:25 iamperfection wrote: because it was sudden and last minute i had to think quickly and my gut said fake claim when i first saw it. I thought he was the leading vote getter at the time i dont know if he actually wa but at the time i thought it. So then i open his filter see no yam anywhere and i determined fake claim. The rest is history But you determined fake claim before you opened his filter according to the time stamps. Also, it seems like you already made up your mind before the doctor claim. You were threatening to vote him after he showed up to vote ceph. What about ceph's posts made you think he could be town when you said "at least ceph is around and posting". If anything, those posts would have made me think that he is more likely mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 02:32 iamperfection wrote: because caring about the lynch is one of the ways i find scum. I have found in the past scum show less intrest and are more apathetic to the lynch cephiro showed up lone hadn't to the last second You came to the conclusion that cephiro cared about the lynch? He essentially placed a default vote on LoneMeow and mentioned that he could get behind a deconduo lynch in passing that would require like a 12 vote swing in the last hour. On September 26 2013 09:25 Cephiro wrote: EBWOP: Also voting for LoneMeow now, as it doesn't seem any other lynch is going to happen. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 02:35 kitaman27 wrote: You came to the conclusion that cephiro cared about the lynch? He essentially placed a default vote on LoneMeow and mentioned that he could get behind a deconduo lynch in passing that would require like a 12 vote swing in the last hour. What about cephiro that he posted makes you think he cared about the lynch, rather than about himself. Please point to specifics. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 02:52 justanothertownie wrote: I am a little hesitant to lynch FT to be honest. If he was scum there should be scum on the other wagon Day1, no? Well, I don't see scum there. There are confirmed townies + rayn, sentinel (who both voted cephiro Day2) and Kush/Kitaman. Also, Kita: Mocsta is on the FT wagon. If you think he is scum then FT probably is not. Of course this is not perfect because the lynch was chaotic due to the host mistakes. Apart from that I understand the urge to vote FT because he wastes his vote everyday and doesn't contribute shit. Opinions? I can see what you're saying about day one, but I don't necessarily think it means he isn't mafia. Mafia are generally unlikely to go out on a limb for a player that is afk, which FT was during the second half of day one. There is also the possiblity that the mafia likely decided to swing things towards LoneMeow, instead of FT, on day two even though FT could have been an easier lynch from the number of votes on him the previous day. I'm actually pretty unconvinced with iamp's response. The fact that cephiro showed up to make an obvious vote on LoneMeow doesn't explain why iamp would be so convinced the doctor claim was fake, even though he had a bad town read on him prior. The one main reason to vote iamp over FT is that iamp played a role in the vote swing to save cephiro, while FT avoided it completely. I'm still willing to consider both. Let me take one last look through iamp's filter. | ||
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kitaman27
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He acknowledges the importance of caring about the lynch, yet the only time he has really shown he cares is a five minute period where he is pushing the doctor claim over our only mafia lynch. He came to a conclusion before considering the evidence on that day. Day three he was pretty lazy and showed no interest in pushing things beyond cephiro. He uses the excuse that he is having a difficult time subbing in, but I managed to day the same an entire cycle later. He is clearly caught up based on the list post he made, that looks incredibly wrong, so it's not like that's a valid excuse. Even today he has only defended himself and posted a one-liner on someone he would be open to. For a town player that is as good as iamp, I think this has to be his mafia play. ##Unvote ##Vote iamperfection | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:17 FirmTofu wrote: Thankfully, I can actually be around during lynch today. I will probably use my vote on Deconduo/Mocsta, depending on which one has more votes. Do you actually plan on convincing others or will you vote on your own island again? I'm kinda tempted to move back now if we have to go through this again -_- | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:17 iamperfection wrote: and i actually think rayn is most likely to be mafia i think i caught him with his hand in the cookie jar. Kita stop being silly and read what i have said about rayn ill be back in a few hours. rayn actually looks decent from the events of day two. Is this something you'd refuse to consider? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:32 Risen wrote: Drop Mocsta from that, it appears people have left him. Good. So Iamp, Stutters, FT Focus discussion on these three alone Are you satisfied with iamp's explanation about ceph caring about the lynch? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:35 Risen wrote: My thoughts on the subject Iamp looks scummy, but has had some good reads. Does he know too much? I don't know. It's something to look into later for me, but as long as his reads and actions line up with mine I don't care. How can you say he has some good reads? Have you looked at his list post? He was like 0/5, with a scum read on Sent, who I also think is town. He was wrong about ceph and LoneMeow. He has a mafia read on rayn, who I think is town. He has a town read on stutters, which seems to conflict with what you think. He had a scum read on you, which would obviously conflict with what you think. deconduo might be scum, but I don't think he is one of the strongest candidates. Where exactly are all these great reads that you're seeing? If anything, he has had the worst reads this game. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:38 Risen wrote: EBWOP: In case it isn't clear, I think iamp is scum who knows too much. I think stutters is lurking scum. I think FT is null, he's done some pro-town shit (decon) and some anti-town shit (VE vote d2) Do you think stutters is lurking or stutters is absent? Right now, it seems to me that he is simply gone, especially with his "In my hometown for the weekend" post. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 03:45 justanothertownie wrote: Ok. Prepare for WIFOM. Why would a scum team around iamp shoot 3 of those 5 "scumreads" last night and confirm them town? Heh dunno. Why would a scum team shoot those 3, period? At first I thought it could be their suspicion of FT, but it's also possible they are going for the "dodge the medic" game. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 04:01 Pandain wrote: I think Iamp is town and you guys are over-exagerrating. Being doubtful of a medic claim isn't that scum-like, in fact I would think that scum would instantly bandwagon for mocsta to try and gain town cred. He has been posting good reads and contributing. Am I missing something? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 04:18 Pandain wrote: Stop talking about Iamp your cases on him are shit. Why? Where are these magical contributions that you're referring to? | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 04:21 Pandain wrote: Goddamnit Kita give me a second to put you in your place. 5 minutes please. ![[image loading]](http://i43.tinypic.com/2uol2qd.jpg) | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On September 22 2013 06:22 Pandain wrote: I want the atmosphere we have now to stay and for people to consolidate your posts. On August 19 2011 23:47 Pandain wrote: atmosphereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 04:55 Pandain wrote: The night kill argument also isn't wifom, why tell doctors to protect people who you're going to shoot? The missing kp points to double stack. Who cares about a medic at that point? If anything, it makes him look good. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 05:05 Stutters695 wrote: That said, let's talk about today's lynch. Mocsta>Kush> anyone else. Since its pretty clear you guys don't agree with that, here's what I see with Iamp/FT. You do realize that kush was replaced 2 days ago right? Does your scum read carry over to myself? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 05:14 justanothertownie wrote: Do I have to? There is still time. If I had to vote right now it would be iamp. You're allowed to change it. Just trying to consolidate things. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 05:18 FirmTofu wrote: I'm sorry guys, I'm feeling a bit down about mafia right now. I'm going to take a break and be back later. I don't want to post things out of anger. HEY VE AND GERIPT, YOU GUYS PAYING ATTENTION? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 09:02 iamperfection wrote: sometimes... i dont even know how that happened ![[image loading]](http://25.media.tumblr.com/951028bf0af729ef720c041f8e8afab7/tumblr_mqywn5jEPO1rawzgvo1_250.gif) | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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lol you're siding with some incredibly sketchy company | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 10:11 Pandain wrote: I made several points why iamp is town. He also has responded. Here is the only thing you said to me: I then stated: That's not a good defense. I've directed the medics as mafia several times into players that I'm going to shoot. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that yamato and marv were good medic targets. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
However, iamp is the player most likely to flip mafia. Similar to stutters, its a toss up with him. deconduo could be mafia, deconduo could be town. By iamp almost certainly is mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 10:15 Pandain wrote: Then you're a really bad mafia player ![[image loading]](http://aka-img-1.h-img.com/media/img/b/hn/2401484/9089017871005225348.400_600r) I KNOW YOU ARE, BUT WHAT AM I? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 10:21 iamperfection wrote: i dont understand how your so certain. like i get im not in the leading roll with the town on my back but that dosnt mean im scum did you read my points here Yes I read it. That post is bad. 1) I would expect you to read the thread as either alignment. Why replace in if you weren't? 2) That post hardly puts you "in the center of attention" 3) You wanted to have the vote steered onto cephiro? Could have fooled me 4) Meh | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 02 2013 10:38 Risen wrote: Quick tally who can swap to rayn? Just post me in the thread right now. me lol not me. | ||
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kitaman27
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That coag guy looks pretty fishy. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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I'm town, but that's completely independent of replacing in. | ||
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kitaman27
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If deconduo is really the medic, then the mafia team can roleblock him for the rest of the game and there is nothing we can do to stop them from reaching 3:3. If deconduo is lying about the medic, then we still have a chance of winning as the real medic can pull off the save. Given that our options are either to : A) Lose if deconduo is town regardless of if we lynch him B) Still have a chance if deconduo is mafia I think we have no choice but to lynch him. Another thing to consider is that deconduo is may be trying to draw the real medic out. Even if a mafia deconduo gets lynched, a medic counter claim would win the game for scum. Therefore, the real medic should counter-claim under no circumstances. ##Vote deconduo | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 03 2013 22:21 raynpelikoneet wrote: We are not lynching deconduo. We need to lynch the mafia roleblocker to stand a chance in this game. Lynch Stutters. What makes you think deconduo isn't the mafia roleblocker? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 03 2013 22:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because he claimed a fucking medic? Unless there is a counter-claim he probably is a medic... So you're saying the medic SHOULD counter-claim? Are you crazy? | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 03 2013 22:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because if there is no CC we 100% lose. This is false. If the medic chooses to not counterclaim and continues to protect at night, we still have a chance if deconduo flips town. There is like a 1/10 chance of hitting the roleblocker if the medic claims. Even if we manage to lynch mafia, there is a 1/5 chance that we lynch the roleblocker. Even if the medic claims and the rber is lynched, the mafia simply shoot him instead of roleblocking. Right now the medic has three chances at a save in secret and one chance at a save if he counterclaims. Does anyone honestly have a town read on deconduo regardless of the medic claim? This is the guy that avoids the entire conversation yesterday, ninjas a vote, and then claims to avoid a lynch, rather than pushing his prefered lynch candidate. He didn't need to claim to save himself. He could have pushed stutters or Mocsta, or whoever he thinks is scum (I don't even know). Instead, he roleclaimed likely hoping for a counter-claim like you want. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 03 2013 23:00 kitaman27 wrote: This is false. If the medic chooses to not counterclaim and continues to protect at night, we still have a chance if deconduo flips mafia. There is like a 1/10 chance of hitting the roleblocker if the medic claims. Even if we manage to lynch mafia, there is a 1/5 chance that we lynch the roleblocker. Even if the medic claims and the rber is lynched, the mafia simply shoot him instead of roleblocking. Right now the medic has three chances at a save in secret and one chance at a save if he counterclaims. Does anyone honestly have a town read on deconduo regardless of the medic claim? This is the guy that avoids the entire conversation yesterday, ninjas a vote, and then claims to avoid a lynch, rather than pushing his prefered lynch candidate. He didn't need to claim to save himself. He could have pushed stutters or Mocsta, or whoever he thinks is scum (I don't even know). Instead, he roleclaimed likely hoping for a counter-claim like you want. EBWOP | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 02 2013 10:59 deconduo wrote: Hey guys, sorry for the inactivity, will explain later. ##Vote iamperfection Is there something that you planned to explain here? | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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Certainly Town 6: kushm4sta 15: Coagulation Probably Town 13: Mr. Cheesecake - Parity claim with no other roleblock 29: justanothertownie - General townie vibe, though kinda surprised he hasn't be a night hit 11: Pandain - Cares way too much about lynch than I would expect from mafia on day four Mafia That We Should Lynch 14: Xzavier Decondou 16: Stutters695 10: FirmTofu Remaining Mafia Probably In Here 2: raynpelikoneet 19: [UoN]Sentinel 7: Koshi I kinda had townish reads on all three of these players yesterday, but the five mafia need to come from somewhere. rayn and sent both have good voting records from day two to lynch ceph over LoneMeow. Koshi hasn't done anything exceptionally scummy except buddy me. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Where are you sitting with your top scum reads? | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 04 2013 05:29 justanothertownie wrote: Ok, Kita you still there? What do you make of deconduos "crumbs"? And why do you think scum would post this: I mean scum would know who they roleblocked and how easily this could be solved. Also Zaragon had claimed being roleblocked by then. I missed that too but scum would probably know that. I guess if deconduo is the medic we lost anyways because he claimed but it doesn't hurt to think about it. I don't really understand what the crumbs are. The post about the roleblocker isn't very relevant in my opinion since scum pretend not to have knowledge they should have all the time in order to gain town cred. I mean, there is the possibility that deconduo is the medic, but at the moment I'm sticking with the more likely scenario that he is mafia. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 04 2013 05:39 justanothertownie wrote: The "crumbs" are that he used the names of his targets instead of the names of the people he is talking about in those quotes. Hmm, maybe. He didn't crumb on night four, which I would have expected though. It's also quite a coincidence that he happened to decide to protect two players that flipped town, but they didn't go through because of replacing and double-stack. | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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deconduo, do you think Mocsta is scum? | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 04 2013 11:43 Mocsta wrote: Deconduo I have to think about. The timing of everything is just so damn suspect but I don't care enough anymore to figure out what it means. So you counter-claim deconduo as the real medic and now you have to think about it? | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 04 2013 16:10 deconduo wrote: Anyway I was 99% sure iamp was scum, so I figured I'd hammer him at the last minute, no problems there. If you were 99% sure iamp was scum, why is it that you never shared this in the thread? You say you didn't return until 20 minutes before the lynch, which must mean that you had a scum read on iamp earlier on in the game. Why not say so on day two, day three, or the beginning of day four? On October 03 2013 00:35 deconduo wrote: I don't understand all the hate. - I wasn't going to be lynched whether I was around or not. On October 04 2013 16:10 deconduo wrote: I didn't want to draw any attention to myself in case I somehow managed to swing a last minute vote to me. You say you weren't getting lynched even if you were around, yet you also say you didn't post so you wouldn't get lynched. You're contradicting yourself. If you were 99% sure iamp was scum and was worried about how you looked to town, wouldn't pushing iamp's lynch make you look a lot better when he flipped? Did you really think that ninja voting 30 sec before the deadline was going to help your position? | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 05 2013 01:00 justanothertownie wrote: I hope you are saying FT is the guy that would do that as town and not that you have a townread on him? So, is deconduo the lynch? I don't know if I can make the deadline today. I will be at a birthday party and if I am able to be here it won't be long before the lynch and I could be drunk. Will be leaving in an hour. I'm also unsure if I'll be available before the lynch. At this point, I think he is our best bet. Hopefully he flips mafia and we can pull off a save tonight. Everyone should consolidate with the deconduo lynch unless you think myself, mocsta, JAT, koshi, and pandain are all mafia. We need to vote together as town at 7:5. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Thanks to Meapak and Solstice for hosting! | ||
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kitaman27
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On October 05 2013 12:44 geript wrote: Really... You replaced scum in after you mod killed town... Not cool This was certainly the correct thing to do. Malongo had zero posts and he was a replacement of a player also with zero posts. kush was an active player who had to replace out for a legit reason. Mods don't modkill to maintain balance, they do so to enforce the rules. | ||
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On October 05 2013 19:54 marvellosity wrote: Also kita's catchup post where he said i died to guarantee Ceph's death and didn't mention the other mafia I called out made me smile. lol opps  | ||
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kitaman27
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kitaman27
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On October 06 2013 02:00 marvellosity wrote: Town could (should) have won this game with "normal" play from about the middle of day 2. I agree. I think a stutters lynch was closer than it appeared on day four. Mafia kp goes down by one, a framer is dead with two late game parity cops alive, and a large part of the mafia team is suspected by the town leaders that pushed stutters over iamp. With a confirmed coag alive, it only takes a cop check or a doctor save that confirms two more players and the game is suddenly a lot closer. | ||
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