TL Mafia LXII: TL Noir
|Forum Index > TL Mafia|
Probably will take me a couple days to catch up fully.
Somebody give me major points of interest if you don't mind.
Also, do we have a full day or a few hours left in the cycle?
Will probably just read through Ceph's filter next, decide yay or nay, and then catch up the rest at night,
On September 26 2013 11:18 Cephiro wrote:
OH MY GOD ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME T_T
Two blue lynches in a row. This is as hard as an anal rape can get Q_Q
He doesn't seem like the type of player that would rage quit in my experience so his absence probably means he just doesn't want to reveal any more info. Compared to aperture, his activity is much weaker.
I'll probably post my other reads before the night post.
On September 30 2013 19:14 Koshi wrote:
Ahyeah why I said Kita was confirmed town.
Hosts kinda fucked town over day 1 with the shortened time
Town is losing this
I cannot believe hosts are now going to give scum a night 3 replacement. + a town replacement in n3 can be shot.
---> Kita is town.
Maybe it's lame but seriously, hosts are not going to swap a scummer n3 in this game.
This is really sketchy reasoning for knowing that I'm town. At first I thought you might be a parity cop or something with your weird instance that I was town, but now that you're trying to explain it with this makes it seem as if you're trying to buddy up with me or something. I will definitely need to tackle your filter.
I think the most important thing to start with is the night hits since it's far too often that people will ignore the suspicions of those who are dead. While a player flipping town doesn't necessarily mean their reads are right, it does mean that you don't need to worry about their cases having an ulterior motive of pushing a mislynch. It's also common sense that the mafia team will go after people they deem as threats.
Nothing really of note. Vet kill.
cephiro is mentioned in a list of several people. Also suspicious of rayn, Mocsta, JAT
Makes a vig list to include ceph/Risen/iamp
Guaranteed ceph as mafia and strongly pushed for him day two. Convinced the town to lynch him after death.
Mocsta, VE, Sent
Lists top three preferences as FT, Ceph, Mocsta
Wanted to lynch Mocsta today. Also suspicious of sent and FT.
FT, stutters, Sent (and Marv -_-)
FT and Mocsta's name are the most common scum suspects of players that have died. VE and sent are also mentioned multiple times. The three night kills last night are especially suspicious since they targeted players that didn't look incredibly townie and weren't obvious veteran kills.
As for ceph's filter, there wasn't a ton of interactions with players that haven't already flipped and his main lynch preference was on a player that already flipped. The player he has the most interaction with is JAT. After having a little back and forth, he doesn't put much effort into his preferred lynch target, voting LoneMeow both cycles as the only realistic candidate. He sends a softball VE's way with no real follow-up, which could possibly be an attempt at scum-to-scum interaction.
On September 26 2013 11:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
FirmTofu (1): Risen
justanothertownie (1): kushm4sta
Cephiro (9): s&b, justanothertownie, raynpelikoneet, Koshi. [UoN]Sentinel
Umasi (1): FirmTofu
LoneMeow (13): Coagulation, ObviousOne, Stutters695, iamperfection, Mocsta. Mr. Cheesecake, VisceraEyes, deconduo, Pandain
LoneMeow is lynched
Day two is clearly the most important cycle that we have had so far. On day three, there was little resistance to a Ceph lynch, but on day two, things were highly contested between Ceph and LoneMeow. I've removed the players that have already flipped. One thing that I found suspicious is that FT and Risen would avoid the main wagon even though they had zero chance of a lynch. Kush is also guilty of this, but lets ignore that -_-
More importantly however is that the lynch was tied 7-7 with thirty minutes left and Cephiro leading the lynch:
[B]On September 26 2013 10:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
FirmTofu (3): Risen, LoneMeow, Zaragon
justanothertownie (1): kushm4sta
Cephiro (7): s&b, justanothertownie, raynpelikoneet, yamato77, Deconduo, Koshi
Pandain (1): [UoN]Sentinel
Zaragon (2): Mr. Cheesecake
[UoN]Sentinel (1): Umasi
Umasi (1): FirmTofu
LoneMeow (7): Coagulation, ObviousOne, VisceraEyes, Pandain, Cephiro, Stutters695
[u]geript (1): Mocsta
[b][blue]Cephiro is currently set to be lynched (first to 7).
At this point, Sent unvotes and puts another vote on Ceph. Even though his name came up twice in the hit list last night, I think this earns him a ton of town cred for putting the mafia team in a position where they would need to pull off a several vote swap. A bus at this point would be incredibly risky with it not being clear that the massive vote swap would occur.
With the LoneMeow vote, it is now 8-7, with the tiebreak going to a scum lynch. The doctor claim comes at 9:50, which is really important since at this point he is not leading the vote. There would need to be TWO votes that are swapped for a ceph vote not to happen. Between a doctor lynch and a mafia lynch, there is no better situation for the mafia team to pull of a swing.
iamp, Mocsta, CC, VE, deconduo, and pandain all pull off the swap. Now clearly all of these players cannot be mafia, but those that are part of this list should be considered incredibly suspicious. More importantly, I think you have to look at the reasoning for their switch:
Before the lynch, iamp does not have a strong opinion between the two players. He appears concerned with both player's activity in the hour before the lynch, but doesn't commit one way or the other. In my opinion, he is waiting to the last minute to see if the ceph lynch can be avoided. He threatens to vote for LoneMeow's switch to Ceph, but what does he expect him to do? Does he honestly think that a town Meow wouldn't vote for Ceph in that situation? Ceph has a vote on Meow and is equally afk, but this isn't an issue? When the doctor claim comes out, he is suddenly strongly in favor of a Meow lynch as if he has already made up his mind and shows little interest in seeing both ways.
Mocsta is all over the place in the final hour before the lynch. He goes back and forth multiple times to the point where it's difficult to say that any of his reads are even real or if he is just making them up on the spot. Initially, he buys the doctor claim as legit, so naturally he decides to move over to geript who has no chance of being lynched. He seems to come to this conclusion without actually checking whether or not he mentions yamato, until the point is brought up by someone else. Why does he believe the doctor claim if he clearly hasn't researched things himself? He then comes back with the fake doctor claim to ensure a Meow lynch. I can't pretend to understand this. Just minutes ago he believed Meow is the doctor. Now he is so confident that he is willing to lie to secure the lynch? At the same time, trying to pull this off as mafia is extremely gutsy. It's a high risk, high reward type of move. I'm pretty stumped with him and will likely need to look into his history first.
VE's role in this entire sequence is incredibly scummy. He is playing the back seat role and there is an apparent lack of interest in the lynch. He votes LoneMeow, swaps to Ceph, then back to Meow based on one-liners. He mentions that he thinks it is going to be a mislynch, but puts no effort into swinging things to someone like geript. He shares that he could be in favor of player X or Y, but he clearly doesn't care enough to get others to move their vote. In the end, he tries to put a lot of blame on Mocsta, even though VE deserves just as much blame for the mislynch.
CC, deconduo, and pandain also were part of the swap, but I think it seems more likely that they were the town participants. I haven't really put much time reading into these players. I've also totally ignored Risen for the moment. The LoneMeow/Ceph lynch probably wasn't completely one-sided, but the individuals on the correct side of the lynch shouldn't be a priority today or tomorrow.
The four players that I'm looking at right now are FT, iamp, Mocsta and VE (I only think one of the final two are likely mafia). I need to take a break for a little bit, but when I return, I'll put together a case on who we should be lynching today.
On October 01 2013 04:41 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 01 2013 04:36 kitaman27 wrote:
I'd be interested in hearing about FT and iamp in particular from you VE.
To what end?
Suppose Mocsta is either not an option or has already flipped, would you be in favor of lynching either of these players?
On October 01 2013 05:34 Koshi wrote:
I am just praying that Mocsta, rayn are scummers
Koshi #1 scum hunter when divine intervention is on his side.
On October 01 2013 06:25 VisceraEyes wrote:
Could you explain why you like iamp over FT?
The case against FirmTofu
As I mentioned earlier, WaveofShadow, Zaragon, Umasi, and Mattchew all mentioned FT as one of their mafia suspects before their deaths. All three players that died last night wanted to kill him. These kills were strange enough that I think it is likely that they were picked out for their reads.
On day one, FT is clearly around and reading the thread at the start of the game, yet he fails to provide a lynch candidate. He appears to be afk towards the end of the day and never votes, so I'll chalk this up as a null tell.
On September 23 2013 19:23 FirmTofu wrote:
Finally got some decent reads. :D
Firstly, I want to address the vigi situation.
As a vigilante you want to shoot the people who are currently useless and are unlikely to become useful in the future. I'll go through a few people and address the value of shooting them.
We have recent replacement inactives in Malongo, Deconduo, and Blazinghand. These guys deserve some time to catch up to the thread. Their deaths would not serve a higher purpose in the short-term.
Then we have people like VayneAuthority, kush, and VE. These are people that are capable of strong town games, but are currently either just trolling or posting with a subdued interest. I would say that this group of people becomes more easy to read as the game progresses, hence they aren't the best vig shots.
Tier 3 are people who are sitting in the semi-lurker category, but have some posts of substance. I would include Pandain, JAT, Mr.CC, Zaragon, Sentinel, Umasi, Stutters, and a few others I can't remember in this grouping. I believe that this group probably holds the majority of the scumteam. These are people that want to stay just above lurker territory so as to avoid suspicion. I think most of these guys would be good vig shots as long as some discretion is used.
Finally you have the completely useless. These are people that aren't trying to get better and aren't going to play better when asked. They are either hardcore lurking or posting little to no substance. Examples include Risen, Coag, and Lonemeow. Anyone who is in this category is a decent shot from a vig perspective, but is less likely to be scum than the previous category I mentioned.
Once night two starts, he comes out with the trademark "large post that says absolutely nothing". Apparently addressing the vig situation really means "I'm going to list 10 different players you could consider shooting based on activity". It really shouldn't taken this much time for him to essentially tell us that he is fine with a third of the game getting shot. He later posts his read on Zaragon and tells the vig to shoot him. If this was his scum read, then why did he just spend the last fifteen minutes with his list post?
Throughout the game, he produces several half-hearted cases against players, but he never actually goes after his targets. There is a limited amount of interaction with the players he suspects. A lot of the time, he asks others to ask him questions, rather than contribution on topics that he finds important on his own.
On September 24 2013 08:28 FirmTofu wrote:
Cephiro looks like me in Desert with less trolling. He's an excellent vig shot but a mediocre lynch. He sounds like he's having trouble catching up to the thread, an issue I can relate to. The rest of his filter is pretty crappy, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily.
This post is a really generic soft defend. He doesn't want to commit to a town read on Ceph, so he states that he is fine with a vig shot, yet wouldn't lynch him. This allows him to vote elsewhere later on in the cycle.
On September 26 2013 13:48 FirmTofu wrote:
I'm pretty disappointed that I couldn't make the deadline today. You guys went full retard. Never go full retard.
I just skimmed the thread on my phone so I'm gonna do a full read through and do some analysis.
This is the scummiest post in his filter. I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing. He criticizes town for the LoneMeow lynch. The problem? He hasn't defended LoneMeow all game. He voted Umasi, a player who had no chance of getting lynched and essentially went afk again when the lynch was being decided. I gave him a pass for doing it on day one, but this is now two days in a row where he has displayed his apathy for the lynch.
When he performs his post lynch analysis, he still never acknowledges that cephiro is scum. So if he is frustrated about town going "full retard", how could he think it was a terrible lynch if the alternative wasn't incredibly scummy in his opinion?
On September 27 2013 14:02 FirmTofu wrote:
Also, I think Cephiro is a better lynch than Mocsta. I still don't see the scum motivation in what Mocsta did and Cephiro has been altogether useless this entire game.
On day three, he votes geript, but makes this post about Cephiro. Who exactly is he trying to convince? The vote is clearly going to be a blow out. Despite not being able to see scum motivation from Mocsta, he has a revelation post flip and notices the connection. Is this honestly something that he wouldn't consider beforehand?
There is a pretty apologetic theme from most of his posts and there are several points where he seems more interested in defending himself or making himself look good with unnaturally worded posts, rather than pushing his prefered mafia lynch. I'm not sure if there is anyone in this game that actually has a town read on FT, which generally points to mafia.
On October 01 2013 09:10 Mr. Cheesecake wrote:
I'm just going to claim because my role is actually useless. Doesn't matter because all the dudes are getting framed and everyone is GF so whatever.
I'm parity cop and VE was different than Umasi. Umasi was the same as BH. -.- Fucking framer bullshit is so stupid. Should known since MZ sent me "Same" and then 2 minutes later said "Wait, he's different nvm"
You should have three checks unless I'm missing something?
On September 24 2013 12:21 Risen wrote:
EBWOP: Nope, never mind. No way a town FT comes out with a vote on VE.
On September 25 2013 02:41 Risen wrote:
I'm down for lynching anyone here, but would definitely prefer Cephiro or FT. Probably FT at this point.
On September 26 2013 02:13 Risen wrote:
Again, lynch candidates should be FT or Cephiro. I would prefer a FT lynch over Cephiro, but I do think both are scum so I'll lynch either.
On September 26 2013 02:21 Risen wrote:
I'm not moving my vote until it becomes clear Cephiro is going to be lynched over FT, who still, in spite of no redeeming qualities in his posting today, is not the leading lynch candidate. Team plz
On September 27 2013 12:27 Risen wrote:
Scum guarantees are: Mocsta, Geript.
My top scum reads outside these two are Cephiro and FT.
On September 28 2013 01:46 Risen wrote:
Zaragon the sad thing is that I actually have a very strong null read on Mocsta, but he has to be lynched. Not while we have so many clearly scummy people (Cephiro, Mr. CC, FT, Geript) but certainly once those four are taken care of.
On September 30 2013 06:29 Risen wrote:
I don't know how FT slipped my mind. He's on the level of VE/Matt in terms of wanting him dead.
On October 01 2013 12:07 Risen wrote:
mayyyyybe FT. If I were to vote FT it would be only because he got saved D1 and has subsequently done nothing the entire game. Like... if you got saved wouldn't you play the game? He's not actually a scum read because of his posting, though. He's barely above any other lurker.
So what exactly happened that changed your mind? You went from strong scum read on FT, to excluding him from your scum list and deciding that his posting isn't particularly scummy with the only reason you would lynch him being poor host meta. Why the huge flop?
On October 01 2013 12:24 Risen wrote:
I keep forgetting about him and as other people post and appear scummy he slips further from my mind
Well you called him scummy last cycle and now you stated that his posts aren't particularly scummy. What changed your mind about this?
Consolidating is a sketchy reason when there is 1 vote a piece. Between the two, do you have a preference?
On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote:
"trademark post that says nothing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum play this way in the past.
What is the purpose of that long post about a night shot if you name 10 different people to consider shooting. Why not simply tell the vig to shoot your number one or two scum read, like you do a couple posts later? You aren't addressing the vig situation like you're saying if you make a list post.
On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote:
"I'm lost count of the number of times a scum player shows up after the lynch only to yell at town for something they showed no interest in preventing" is a generalization. Kita thinks this is scummy because he's seen scum showing up after lynch to yell at town.
Why did you call the lynch retarded if you didn't share a town read on LoneMeow and you stated earlier that Ceph was a bad lynch decision. What is there to get upset about? Rather than passing this off as a generalization, can you address the real point? You didn't exactly put in any effort to push your preference.
On October 01 2013 13:38 FirmTofu wrote:
However, these heuristics simply do not hold true for me. Kita has never played with me and does not know that I play this way as town and scum.
So are you saying that as town, you generally have no interest in convincing others and vote for players that have no chance of being lynched every cycle? I don't see why a meta case is superior to a case that points out mafia tendencies. You said yourself that you play similar as town and mafia, so why should it matter if I've played with you before to be aware of your play?
On October 01 2013 16:37 FirmTofu wrote:
Did anyone notice this in Deconduo's filter?
Votes Cephiro, sounding very confident...
...then switches to geript randomly with a pretty shitty reason when all hell broke loose between the LM and Cephiro lynches.
This is the perfect scum move. It's silent, but it did a good job to guarantee that LM would be lynched instead of Cephiro.
On October 01 2013 17:12 FirmTofu wrote:
Right now, I'd rather kill deconduo. My case on him is a few posts back.
Do you honestly think this "case" is enough to convince everyone that deconduo should be lynched today?