EPTTL Mafia LXII: TL Noir - Page 3
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I kinda feel bad doing this because this is one of the only guys defending me, but Zaragon has been playing pretty scummy this game. The key to his play is apathy. If anyone here played in Sicilian, think of how Yamato played that game as scum. His posting was very constructed and formulaic. His first post reeked of how much he didn't give a flying fuck about finding scum. When I read Zaragon's filter, I get the same impression. Let's have a look, shall we? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=423071&user=Zaragon On September 21 2013 14:31 Zaragon wrote: Not much to go on without wild speculation on people's meta connections and personalities. From posting interval as it relates to content, I like Geript less. He was pushing a little too hard too fast for either pure pressure or getting anything out of his read if he had one, while still posting at methodical, relatively slow intervals. He did get to DP to be able to read him very early but it feels mostly like pushing buttons and corresponding reactions to me. Barring any history of reckless responses as scum on DP's part for context, DP feels most likely town. Geript could possibly be scum with one overplayed line DP picked up on, then feeling like he was forced to keep going somewhat like he was. However, it's still more likely to be town on town to me so far. His first post is a commentary on DP vs geript. He backs away from choosing a side, which is the first apathetic tell. His overall conclusion is that both players are town. He makes sure to sound willing to change his mind, as though he doesn't want to commit to this position in the event that the voting dynamic changes. On September 22 2013 00:25 Zaragon wrote: My reasoning went more like this: from your position (as town) Pandain could be scum or town. If you had an itch about him based on his "..." and lack of posting, and if you had given it more time, he, as scum, would have had less opportunity to give an explanation or excuse. He might even have posted hours later and skipped past that point for his first post, and then would have read significantly more scummy, which you gave him an opportunity to avoid. Meaning that then you could be scum and him town. I'm not saying it makes me particularly suspicious of you now, especially given Pandain's reaction (or lack thereof) so far. Makes it understandable for you to call him out, since it tells me something about his play regardless of alignment. About VE, I think if geript and DP are both town (which isn't at all a given) his play makes sense as scum, otherwise not, all I have on him besides that is the feeling about his posting I described earlier. If people who have played with him before are comfortable with his posting pattern and emotional level, that means it's probably nothing. See bold. He uses the parentheses to provide himself an out in the event that either DP or geript was to be lynched on Day 1. The parenthetical aside isn't something town would do. Town is more likely to believe their actions even to the point of fault. Only scum uses fallback options to justify their actions. On September 22 2013 19:36 Zaragon wrote: I don't read either Tofu or DP as scum right now. The problem with that is, they could both be, playing off each other, as it would be a good time for that. Still, I'm going to assume they're town for now since the other line of thinking is currently not useful. Especially since Tofu suspects VE, who I have had a bad feeling about all game. I don't see any other reasoning for going after DP at this point as scum, I hope DP will elaborate about why he thinks there is. Oh and from earlier: It was a bedtime post. But I'm glad you made some kind of use of it, even if only Rayn comes out looking slightly scum from it, to me. Rayn, would you say that your posts have generally had more substance than the one you pointed out? If we assume that asking what someone else thinks is not substance. Again, it's the same fallback option used in a different context. Zaragon says me and DP both aren't scum, but still uses the fallback to urge the discussion on. He clearly wants us to continue arguing here, as if he knows it will be non-conducive to a proper town atmosphere and is deliberately manipulating us into his hands. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I'm null on rayn. There are some things he's done that I liked, but there is also a great absence of things that he could have done that he hasn't done. For rayn, he is posting in unnaturally low quantities. When that happens, rayn usually flips scum. However, in this game, rayn has been actively pursuing reads like he usually does as town. I remember a few exchanges he's had with a few people that made me think he was standard town rayn. Of course, he could be deliberately tailoring his play to get us to think exactly that. I'm still hazy on his alignment. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 19:46 marvellosity wrote: Thing is, Firm, Zaragon *could* be mafia (I don't have a strong townread on him or anything), but: The parenthetical aside isn't something town would do. Town is more likely to believe their actions even to the point of fault. Only scum uses fallback options to justify their actions. This is simply untrue. I do this kinda thing as town pretty regularly. Of course he could be mafia. Anyone can be mafia. What I'm saying is that out of the 29 people still alive, he's the most likely to be mafia. If you have a disagreement with that statement, you can bring it up. On that note, who is your strongest scumread right now, marv? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 19:50 marvellosity wrote: This is not the point I was making. The point I was making is that your entire case is built on a premise that I think is basically false. I was definitely generalizing to what I believe to be proper townplay vs proper scumplay. As this is a game of probability, I'm working with probabilities. "Town is more likely to believe their actions even to the point of fault." "Only scum uses fallback options to justify their actions." These are statements dependent on implied probabilities. Granted, I may not have used the best choice of words(see: Only), but I believe that both of these statements are true in the majority of cases. They may not be true for you, but that is not a damning argument in and of itself. While you may not fit the mold, I believe most players do. You are only one statistic and cannot single-handedly refute my argument with only the evidence of your own play to back you up. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 19:58 marvellosity wrote: Yes, but you have no evidence to support your theory being true either. Therefore "you cannot singlehandedly assert that your heuristic is correct with only the evidence of you saying so." I'd rather say town, especially on day 1, are much more likely to think in either/or terms because it'll be the time townies are most unsure of their reads. Ultimately, the goal is to try and convince a majority of people to agree with me. While this argument may not resonate with you, I think the majority of people can see where I am coming from. You are entitled to your opinion, so I would like to agree to disagree on this issue. Can any of the rest of you chime in on my case on Zaragon? Rayn, is there any reason you've been relatively subdued in this game? | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 20:00 geript wrote: Ok. See you hon keys after the test. Tofu. I want an explanation of how you gave me a townread but completely missed all my vig claims. I skipped the majority of your posts because I assumed you were having a shitfest with someone or the other and I wanted to finish catching up as fast as possible. It's a harsh reality, I know. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 20:03 DarthPunk wrote: Where are you're decent reads. This post is just a rehashing of the previous conversation in the thread about vig shots and lurkers. Basically mirroring exactly what was said. I can't help you if you don't keep reading. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 23 2013 20:05 geript wrote: So you just chose to give me a townread after skipping most of my posts? Where's the sense in that? My town read on you is based on how you've played games in the past and how you deal with pressure as town vs scum. Once I established that you were a townread from the meta, I took the liberty of ignoring some of your posts so that I could catch up to the thread. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
brb doing some filter diving. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 24 2013 07:23 marvellosity wrote: Firm, you claimed before you have "real reads" was it just Zaragon or was there other shit? There was other shit, but Zaragon was my top read. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 24 2013 07:30 marvellosity wrote: Firm, I'd really like that stuff BEFORE you do whatever you're doing now, darling. I'm not sure why. I wasn't as confident in those reads as I was in Zaragon, and you clearly didn't take a liking to my case on him. I don't want to lead town astray with some of my past reads that were based on initial impressions. If you insist, I will provide them. Let me know. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 24 2013 07:39 marvellosity wrote: Really Firm I just want an insight into your thought process. You clearly spent some time on a game, you caught up, and you had opinions on vig lists. Being wrong isn't a sin, otherwise string me up for lynching a cop. But if I know what and why you're thinking (and the rest of the thread too) that's obviously helpful. Doesn't have to be massively indepth, just like some cliffnotes. Fair enough. I can oblige. Give me a few minutes. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I didn't like Koshi. Here is his post accusing me of being scum. On September 23 2013 09:20 Koshi wrote: Going to vote FT. Thread sentiment and all. Don't want to lynch the kitten. He said that he read all the filters many times but got demotivated. Meh, can't believe he is going to flip scum. Scum QT would have guided him, doesn't feel like he is being guided. While he would be the person that searches for help there. So FT seems like a good bet. Didn't do shit. PS: Please don't lynch me. I promise I am town. pinky swear. He even admits he is just bandwagoning thread sentiment. He provides no thoughts of his own and doesn't sound like he gives a fuck about anything. It's either apathy->scum or town Koshi being retarded. I was leaning towards scum. I also was starting to look at geript more closely. geript was starting to post less and wasn't really contributing much after a certain point. He seemed to have settled on DP so that he wouldn't have to provide too much reasoning aside from that when asked. Combined with the fact that geript's filter is only 5 pages, I believed he was a viable scum candidate. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On September 24 2013 08:07 Pandain wrote: Anyone else getting the idea that Firmtofu is scum trying to save legitimacy? Plus this before So he's caught up, but doesn't want to share any initial impressions? He's afraid of sharing his opinions, which is suspicious. Reverts to his reads yesterday? Critizices geript(btw does anyone think he's not town I was writing a good case for why he's a solid town read in my eyes but don't want to post it if it's useless.) for having 5 pages of filter when he only has 3. Aka his playing mindset to him is less than he expects in Gertrip. Usually normal analysis you base how you read others on your own play. Bad posts are different from weak posts. I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at. For me, geript has pages of filter, you might have changed your settings to include more posts per page or something. I was scum with geript in Persona and geript barely posted at all, btw. Have a look at that game if you want to. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Cephiro looks like me in Desert with less trolling. He's an excellent vig shot but a mediocre lynch. He sounds like he's having trouble catching up to the thread, an issue I can relate to. The rest of his filter is pretty crappy, but I don't think it makes him scum necessarily. | ||
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