Basically, if Oats is town it makes a lot of sense for him to not want to vote for Exar. Same for Cora.

You think that Oats is town and you have a green check on Cora?

On the other hand it makes little sense for Tofu to be voting for Exar. Tofu does not buy insurance, Tofu buys lottery tickets.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:26 GMT

#3805

I mean, if I was 100% sure that Cora and Oats were town then I would not be voting for Exar today. The problem I have is that I just don't know the alignment of Cora and Oats.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:36 GMT

#3809

On August 03 2013 23:28 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

so if im town I dont want to vote for XRZ? why?

No, the other way around. From your position I would not want to vote for xrz if you are town. So you could say that your play is making sense for me from a town point of view.

Tofu looks really scummy. His contributions on day 3 look really bad to me.

I can see a possible way that Exar could of made that play as town. It was a mistake (imo) to claim cop on D2, but town do make mistakes often. Exar's un-claim on D3 makes a lot more sense as town than scum if people do not agree with my previous case.

My big worry with a Tofu lynch is that if we lynch him and he flips town then we are in a worse position than if Exar flips town. If I knew that you were town then I think we have a better chance at victory if we lynch Tofu today. If I know that you and Cora are both town then lynching Exar today looks like a really bad move, and lynching Tofu much better.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:48 GMT

#3815

Okay, so lets say we lynch Tofu today and he flips town:

Xrz, Cora and Clarity are highly likely to be of the same alignment, but we do not know which alignment. We wont have any mislynches left to find out.

The only other players left are Oats, Koshi, Stutters and JAT. If Oats is town then there are only two possible 3 man scum teams and it is much easier to work out which is correct. If Oats is scum then there are a lot of possible scum teams and it is really hard to work out which is correct when we are at MYLO.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:49 GMT

#3816

Basically, if Oats is town there is much less risk in going for a Tofu lynch than if Oats can be scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:50 GMT

#3817

You can swap tofu and Koshi in that and it still holds true.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:54 GMT

#3820

On August 03 2013 23:53 justanothertownie wrote:
I don't see how anyone could think Stutters, Tofu and me are the scum them.

That was all assuming that we mislynch today, we might not.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 14:59 GMT

#3822

Town-Tofu does not think about routes to victory. Town-Tofu picks the person who he thinks is scum and pushes as hard as he can to lynch them on that day. He does not care about how much information is gained from a lynch.

Cora and Clarity are likely to be the same alignment as XRZ, so if Cora is town then it makes sense for Cora to want to not lynch XRZ today.

If Oats is knows that he is town then he can afford to push on the person who he thinks is most likely to be scum. He does not need information as much as I do. Lets say Oats pushes a Koshi lynch and Koshi flips town, then there would only be 2 possible scum teams left to Oats, and he has a good chance to study the game and work out which is correct.

Cora and Oat's play makes sense to me as town, Tofu's does not.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 15:14 GMT

#3825

I agree that lynching XRZ is the safest play. I am just having a hard time for 2 reasons: I think Clarity is likely town and I cannot understand why scum-XRZ unclaimed when he did.

The three likely scum-team would be:

XRZ
Cora
Clarity

XRZ
FT
Koshi

FT
Koshi
JAT

As scum XRZ would not of claimed cop unless either Cora or FT were scum. I am doubting that Stutters and FT are both scum.

I suppose it could be Stutters, Koshi and JAT, but I see that as less likely.

Therefore we also get a lot of information from lynching FT or Koshi. And FT just really looks like scum.

Also, if you count the fourth potential scum team then Koshi is on 3 out of 4, so he might be a good lynch.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 15:17 GMT

#3826

Remember how desperate Koshi was to not lynch FT on D2? Koshi was really excited about getting the vote moved to Stutters or Cora, and that started a long time before the deadline.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 15:20 GMT

#3828

On August 04 2013 00:18 exarezee wrote:
ive pushed hard that i am town with a drumk.rsyn. id be repeating myself and jyst saying the same things over and over again. if u dont believe my story, how else can i convince you. you guys also say u can solve this game if i flip town.

So who do you think is scum?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 15:22 GMT

#3829

I am with Rayn in that the reason I am scared to not lynch XRZ is that I do not want to lose to an XRZ/Cora/Clarity team. But we have a green check on Cora and I think that Clarity is town. That makes me think it is a bit dumb for me to be so scared of that team.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 15:57 GMT

#3835

That's easy for you to say Cora. If any one of us knew that you were town then we would not be voting for Exar, either.

Answer me this: lets say that xrz/cora/clarity are scum and we lynch Koshi today. How does town win? We just guess?

We are trying here, but some of us have less information than others.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 17:04 GMT

#3849

Currently trying to read from page 120 up until the Mal lynch. It's a lot of reading, though

Will talk when I am done.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 17:30 GMT

#3856

Page 120 to 135 leads up to XRZ claiming cop. I can totally see XRZ doing that as scum, cannot see him doing it as town.

Need to take a food break.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 17:45 GMT

#3860

2. Scum did not believe that Rayn was cop. Regardless of Exar's alignment I think that is likely true, so it does not matter.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 17:50 GMT

#3864

Rayn, it looked to me like Clarity was just trying to see who was willing to switch to Cora and who was not, so that if we did flip FT red we would have more information. Maybe I read it wrong, though.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 18:02 GMT

#3873

Here's a question: Why did Exar wait so long to un-claim cop?

There was a bunch of discussion on D3 before he did it. Why not post it instantly?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 18:06 GMT

#3878

On August 04 2013 03:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Show nested quote +

"because he felt offended when i questioned & "accused" him".
What´s the point of this question?

I am just trying to figure out why XRZ did what he did. I really think that XRZ is scum right now, so I am looking for reasons as to why I may be wrong.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

August 03 2013 18:41 GMT

#3891

Well if we are going to keep it simple then let us lynch the guy who pulled the big play of fake-claiming a red check 30 minutes before a lynch. That is anything but simple play.

Oats has his vote on Koshi and probably wont be back before the deadline (he has not done that so far). My vote is on Exar and I will be afk for a few hours. I will check in before deadline but I really think that Exar is scum.