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On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =)
Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia.
Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2.
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On July 31 2013 03:16 exarezee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:06 exarezee wrote:
i have a pretty good feel for the scumteam if two of the scum are koshi and malongo. I think its clarity/malongo/koshi/JATorTofu
I'll post my reasoning for this if we lynch koshi and he flips scum. No need to post something that might not occur...and since we can post in night phase =) Read Clarity´s post about the roleblock. It does not make sense that he is mafia. Look into Cora instead. He has been really bad on D2. We have had 3 claims today. Everybody that has down this is town? Why would at least 1 scum NOT claim today? I'm really confused here.
What 3 claims are you talking about? There is one claim, and it´s HZ's. Roleblock claim is not a "claim", and why do you think scum need to claim at the start of D2?
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On July 31 2013 03:17 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him. There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town. I disagree, I don't think vet is a super unsafe claim, especially if he realized that any smart vig wouldn't do it. Doesn't matter though because Hz's posting is town as shit.
If there is a real vet it´s at best an 1-1 trade. No good claim as scum.
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On July 31 2013 03:21 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:17 Stutters695 wrote:On July 31 2013 03:12 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:06 justanothertownie wrote:
First there is Tofu who I still don't like (still think he is scum) but to be fair I have to look into what happened last night again before I am 100% content saying he is scum. The same goes for hzflank (in his case there is even more new information to consider).
Besides there is this clarity thing. Depends totally on my idea to be correct though.
I also have to look into vayne again but currently I have no opinion on him. There is no way hz would have claimed vet if he was mafia at the start of D2. He is town. I disagree, I don't think vet is a super unsafe claim, especially if he realized that any smart vig wouldn't do it. Doesn't matter though because Hz's posting is town as shit. He would definitely have known nobody would shoot him. The only danger would be a real vet claiming but that's not that bad for mafia either and I'm sure he would be confident in his ability to talk himself out of that at least til another mislynch happens.
No, you do not take a possible 1-1 trade as mafia if you don´t have to. HZ didn´t have to. That´s why his claim makes him town. He was definitely not the #1 lynch candidate on D2 and even if he was, why not claim later and first see if people vote for him or not?
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On July 31 2013 03:25 justanothertownie wrote:
Did you read his reasoning for the claim? There were many people who wanted to vote him or were at least suspicious.
If he was scum he would know that´s not true (him possibly getting lynched) as he would have scumbuddies to discuss it. It just strengthens the fact that he is probably working on his own -> is not mafia and believed he could get lynched (while it was not true).
The easiest explanation is that he did not want to derail the thread as his role is kinda useless unless shot at night, or he genuinely thought as town that people would want to lynch him and cut the crap in the first place.
There are pretty much no reasons for him to claim like that if he is mafia. If someone who looks more town than him CC's him, he's gonna get lynched. If someone less townie looking CC's him, he might live for another day. But 1-1 trade for no real reason? No shit that's possible.
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On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town.
Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily.
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On July 31 2013 03:42 hzflank wrote:
Rayn, lets go on a quick trip through my strange brain...
Do you think that JAT is a smurf? Or do you think that this is his first game?
I think i have been pretty clear throughout the game that i believe this is his first game.
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Yeah that post was purely reactionary from me. I did not understand why he thought i was scum as i instantly voted for Malongo after Vayne's check.
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I also did not understand why did he assume the check is not real unless he knows Malongo is town. But apparently a lot of people fail at reading the OP so tha's kinda null-tell. :E
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On July 31 2013 03:58 justanothertownie wrote:
I didn't assume it but I didn't rule it out.
Yeah, pretty much that. :D
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What do you mean by that?
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On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town. Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily. I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim. A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so.
I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before.
TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok?
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On July 31 2013 04:10 exarezee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 04:03 exarezee wrote:On July 31 2013 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 31 2013 03:34 exarezee wrote:
@Rayn you forget the possibility that there is no veteran in the game. which makes it a slightly better play. I don't think you can completely clear hzflank based on the claim, but I still do think he is town. Why can´t you understand that mafia does not know if there is a veteran or not. They would not take the risk HZ took, as there are more risks than benefits in fakeclaiming unnecessarily. I disagree with your conclusion that there are more risks than benefits and that mafia would never make this move. Hzflank WAS going to get some flak. This increases the chance mafia hzflank would fake claim. A fakeclaim isn't bad here IMO. Keep in mind that several people have scum reads on kzflank on this point in the game, increasing the chance for mafia to make this play. I don't know what the odds of there being a veteran in the game, but i want to assume something like 50% as i think there are two town power roles. 50% of the time he gets away with the claim, and people like you have completely cleared him. 50% of the time, he gets counterclaimed. 50% of the time we lynch the counter claimant who is actually town, and we are at must lynch scenario. 1-1 trade is not bad at all, since the likeliest setup is now detective + veteran. Every lynch thereafter is must lynch and a mistake is town loss. So this play works roughly 75% of the time or so. I don't really want to argue with you about this unless you seriously think hz is mafia. Because i think you are wrong and i don't want to waste time in explaining same stuff i have done before. TLDR; If you do not think HZ is mafia, please drop the discussion about this ok? The reason I am discussing this with you is because you make these concrete statements as facts. "hzflank is town because of his claim." "clarity is town because of his claim". These posts are terrible for people that might not want to think themselves. I think you are town. Others think you are town. But following these ridiculous assumptions that people "won't do this as scum" is simply not true.
Nobody cc'd HZ. You think there is a veteran + cop. Why do you even continue this discussion as you seem to agree with me?
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I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town..
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XRZ, you don't know how i play. I'll tell you:
I don't always say everything i think about stuff. That's why i make posts like you quoted. I am encouraging people to think and read by themselves, and if they find something that is not in line with what i say they question me about it. You did that. Now i am however a bit lost because you seem to think i am town yet you are still wanting to argue with me about HZ, who we both think are town. Why is that? If we all think we all are town what's the point of arguing with each other instead of arguing with people we think are scum?
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On July 31 2013 04:21 exarezee wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2013 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I'm a bit puzzled now XRZ. Why are you arguing with me and HZ about stuff that is regarding us as you think both of us are town? You are wasting time if you are town.. I'm suspicious when you try to tell me HZ is town because of his claim. Clarity is town because of his claim. Vayne is town because of his claim. I should have claimed something logical so you would have cleared me too.
Yes i am telling you that. I have given my reasons why i think so, and i am 99% sure i am right on everyone of them.
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I think Koshi, FT and Malongo are scum. I am starting to lean on scum on Cora.
What do you guys think?
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I don't think Clarity is scum because of the roleblock thingy.It just doesn't make sense to me.
Can you XRZ and HZ look into Cora more closely and tell me what do you find out?
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On July 31 2013 04:30 hzflank wrote:
Why does Koshi scum = Mal scum?
For me it's not a connection case. They are both fucking scummy.
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On July 31 2013 04:33 hzflank wrote:I'll throw something new into the pot: I thought that Rayn's big post against Tofu was forced. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=422720¤tpage=98#1948I am not sure why yet. It could be that Rayn is scum, but it is odd that scum Rayn needs to force that on Tofu at this point. If could be that Rayn is so convinced that Tofu is scum that he is not looking at it clearly, or at least that he is not seeing it the same way that I see it.
The whole post is about how FT was acting near the lynch. If you can't why that is scummy i can't help you.
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EPT
