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On August 05 2013 04:50 Umasi wrote:
Slow down there deus, it's not set in stone gotard would flip scum. Zyrre holding out like a retard is similar to what I did, except I had to afk immediately afterward. Admittedly, this time during lynch period is really shaking my views of him, and if gotard flips scum I'll reconsider my read on Zyrre.
Someone needs to fucking vote swap dammit.
No don't worry Umasi. Gotard vote swapped himself.
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On August 05 2013 04:51 Gotard wrote:Show nested quote +On August 05 2013 04:50 DeusXmachina wrote:On August 05 2013 04:48 Gotard wrote:
##UNVOTE
##VOTE GOTARD What the fuck Gotard. RDO is scum. No lynch is fucking terrible.
Last ditch effort. Can't count on Gotard to vote himself. This is all he has got left to try and prove his innocence. Stim and RDO we still need you. OMG if I am wrong on this I will be in a world of shit. Gotard is scum. Vote Gotard.
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If stimaddict gets mod killed do we get a replacement? Maybe even reps)squishy
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WOOT WOOT. Zyrre is scum. Ill be back tonight. Ill make a big case against him.
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On August 05 2013 07:18 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
FUCK. I was at the card shop for a magic sealed event and my phone died, which is why I couldn't switch when we went for gotard. Sorry guys, yes that looks scummy as hell.
As for why I stayed on Umasi earlier--we had 3? votes for him and there was no real consensus, I just didn't switch bc it to seemed silly to just keep throwing around the vote until we had decided who to knock out....is what it is, not much else I can say. Obviously you all will still be suspicious, not much else I can do besides playing well from here on out anyway....I'll go back through again and read the last pages, see what happened
You should try and make a good case against Zyrre.
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Disclaimer: Read this post carefully even if it's boring. All names are links to filters. The focus is primarily on Zyrre. I briefly talk about Nightcat and RDO. I apologize ahead of time for the spelling errors and grammar mistakes. I am pressed for time. Also I know it is a little confusing. If I live I will be happy to clarify. I firmly believe Zyrre is scum. This post will be a good basis for further research. Good job guys.
Zyrre
I am extremely suspicious of Zyrre because...
His Mentatlity:
This is my interpretation of Zyrre's mentality throughout this game. I aim to prove he is thinking like a mafioso. In a way this serves as an introduction to the topics that follow. Starting here. This is Zyrre's first significant post. It seems like he wants to get in on the reps discussion without having to contribute much. Currently there is 1 vote against reps, things are still undecided, and Zyrre takes a relatively strong stance against him. He says, "seems very scummy to me, confused to bad townie at best". Furthermore, he discusses 3 other people in the post, but comes to useless conclusions on them. I interpret this as a way for him to blend in. Furthermore, this post coupled with later posts hints at his agenda. Moving on. This is his next significant post here. Notice the consistency. Light suspicion on Umasi and a scum read on Reps. Seems like he is pushing an agenda. Also he decides to hold off on voting against reps until he hears from other people (don't know how to interpret that right now). He follows up with a useless 3 posts in an effort to contribute. Next substantial post here. This is a great post for interpretation purposes. Notice how he tries to draw attention away from scam (a confirmed mafioso). Furthermore, he starts to target infii (pretty much confirmed town). Stays consistent on reps stance. Stays consistent on Umasi suspicion. Furthermore, he doesn't target me because he is taking a similar stance against Reps. This post is followed by a ton of useless ones. He never expresses real concern for scam. He has not been right with his suspicions at all at this point, and his reasons for suspecting people are garbage. What happened after the reps lynch? I come under light suspicion. Zyrre uses this opportunity to make a stance against me here. At this point he has aimed no suspicion at Gotard and Scam (his scum buddies). To me this really seems like he is pushing an agenda. A huge part of this post is devoted to calling me scum because I defend Umasi. He never expresses solid reasons on why he thinks Umasi is scum, rather he simply jumps on the bandwagon. At this point I believe he aims to cause a little chaos by trying to provide a potential lynch target to distract from the attention on Gotard. He covers himself on Umasi so that he can switch if he wants and avoid suspicion. A lot more crappy posts leading up to the lynch. Again, notice how consistent he is. Even after vote switching Umasi he still pressures me. His reasons for suspecting me and Umasi are absolute shit, but he wants to secure a Umasi lynch. Absolutely no comments on Gotard or Scam at this point. Look at some of the posts pre lynch when he talks to Gotard asking him to switch his vote to Umasi. Seems really fake to me but maybe I am over analyzing things. OK things are getting good. He becomes oddly quiet with about an hour left till lynch. At this point I start pressuring him hard for a vote against Gotard and he is SOOOOO RESISTENT. Everyone who shares my suspicion should read all of those posts pre-lynch. I ask him why he won't vote against Gotard and he gives a HORRIBLE reason. He doesn't vote switch Gotard until the last fucking minute. Tries to save himself at this point. Shortly after lynch he starts defending himself starting [b]here. This is a defense in disguise. He tries to show his willingness to contribute by immediately posting two additional scum reads. LOL. Everyone is simmering down from the Gotard lynch except Zyrre. This is getting pretty long. That is not really what I had in mind for the first big paragraph, but I am short on time. Sorry I could not do a more in-depth read. Moving on. Also, I apologize for the spelling and grammar mistakes. I did not proof this.
Behavior during the Reps lynch:
Extremely consistent on his opinion against reps. Votes against the main lynch target much earlier. Lightly places suspicion on others but doesn't really deviate his focus much from reps.
Behavior during the Gotard lynch:
Completely different. His fellow scum is being lynched so he focus on others. Tries to draw attention away from the Gotard lynch. Does not focus on the main lynch target, rather focuses on candidates that are in no danger of being lynched. He is trying to get a no-lynch at this point, and we come dangerously close.
Pushing an agenda:
Zyrre is very consistent on his targets. Suspected Umasi early and pressed him right up until the Gotard lynch. Doesn't focus any of his attention on Gotard or Scam. Plays on the infii suspicion. Plays on the Deus suspicion. Definitely pushing an agenda.
Blending in:
Lurks at the beginning. Chimes in on the reps debate but offers nothing new. Contributes nothing to the Umasi debate. Very low key until he takes a stance against me. Contributed a shit ton more in day 2 when his buddy was in danger of being lynched.
Nighcat and RDO. Both have not been very active although RDO has been making an attempt. I am not super suspicious of RDO because Gotard tried to target him. At one point in time RDO, Gotard, and Zyrre were the votes against Umasi, and then Gotard votes RDO saying he was checked and returned scum? Nope, Why would he target a fellow scum like that? He just as easily could have said he target me and I was scum. I don't think RDO is scum. Nightcat could possibly be scum although he voted against Gotard pretty definitively. I think it is also unlikely. However, RDO and Night could be using some bizarre tactics so it is worth looking into them. Sorry if that was a little unclear.
[b]Favorites for lynching day 3:
In order
1: Zyrre
2. Nightcat99
3. RDO
I plan on exploring all 3 candidates more extensively if I live.
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Nightcat shot Zyrre rendering my last post completely useless. Seeing as how Nightcat and Stim are confirmed town that leaves RDO, Umasi, and Slam. Ill focus on RDO tonight.
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On August 06 2013 05:29 Umasi wrote:
##VOTE RDO
I have stronger townreads on deus and slam, stim is confirmed town, nightcat is probably confirmed town, so he's the odd one out. Will go take a longer look though.
I think it has got to be RDO man. Nightcat is 100 percent confirmed town. Both you and slam voted with infii pretty early on Gotard. You even seemed like you wanted a scam lynch at one point. RDO is the only one that didn't vote against Gotard. He was absent pre-lynch. He lurked hard at the beginning of the game. I think I over-thought my Zyrre read way to much. This seems simple though. It has got to be RDO.
##Vote RDaneelOlivaw
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On August 05 2013 03:31 Gotard wrote:
I'm cop. Checked RDO and he's scum.
This is the only thing that throws me off. However, in a way it makes sense. Gotard feels he is going to be lynched. In his last moments he says this to throw town off the tail of RDO.
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On August 06 2013 05:43 Umasi wrote:
nightcat is just confirmed not scum, could still be sk. Won't pursue that avenue of logic atm :< it's not relevant
Oh my bad you're right.
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On August 06 2013 05:43 Umasi wrote:
nightcat is just confirmed not scum, could still be sk. Won't pursue that avenue of logic atm :< it's not relevant
Actually just found this: the Sk "can and must kill one person every night". He can't be sk.
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On August 06 2013 05:40 DeusXmachina wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2013 05:29 Umasi wrote:
##VOTE RDO
I have stronger townreads on deus and slam, stim is confirmed town, nightcat is probably confirmed town, so he's the odd one out. Will go take a longer look though. I think it has got to be RDO man. Nightcat is 100 percent confirmed town. Both you and slam voted with infii pretty early on Gotard. You even seemed like you wanted a scam lynch at one point. RDO is the only one that didn't vote against Gotard. He was absent pre-lynch. He lurked hard at the beginning of the game. I think I over-thought my Zyrre read way to much. This seems simple though. It has got to be RDO. ##Vote RDaneelOlivaw
Uggh I fucking suck at this game. I shouldn't be so hasty to vote RDO. He did take a pretty convincing stance against Gotard. However he ultimately move on to Umasi and didn't end up voting against Gotard.
On August 06 2013 06:15 Nightcat99 wrote:
anyway i am going to
vote #RDaneelOlivaw
Nightcat99 can you elaborate on stance against RDO. I think I might be biased because of my early suspicion of him.
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RDO why do you think that nightcat is the sk?
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On August 07 2013 13:33 Umasi wrote:
Here is my thought dump:
If RDO is scum, then this game is probably over, but if the game continues for whatever reason, here's where I think we should go.
If he flips scum, I think it's an easy nightcat lynch, because nightcat has claimed vigilante and there has been no counterclaim (if you're the actual vigilante, counterclaim now).
If he flips town/third party, I think Alakaslam is then the correct lynch, for a couple of compounding reasons.
He's been following thread consensus basically all game, see his vote on RDO, following pressure on Gotard and me, following my lead on pressuring deus early game, and has brought little to town that was original. Basically, he just shouts a lot and looks townie doing so, and he's certainly not who I'd have pegged as scum this game, but the other options are A: Nightcat (who is pretty solid town atm) and Deus. I don't think deus is the scum because he was super hard pressuring gotard, and defended me really hard, and I can't see the scum motivation for defending me. They'd rather just try to shove a mislynch on me, the way the game was going. So him DEFENDING me instead makes me think he's town. Slam also distanced himself from reps and got a free pass for helping hammer because the attention was on me for pulling off, but he pretty blatantly thought reps was town, and then hid behind my play, so it was like "meh, he was covering for Umasi it's all k"
I guess the big thing about slam is he's AROUND a lot, and he POSTS a lot, but I don't think he's CONTRIBUTED a lot.
Another note, he hasn't been posting the "if I die" reads. Lots of players haven't, so this isn't conclusive, but you'd think that as a vanilla town, he would post them, especially because he has been "such a likely nightkill target all game" in his own words.
People, talk. The games not won yet :<
I concur. Want me to look into Slam? My real quick thoughts: It seems like his indecision over reps was genuine, and I still don't think a vote switch is a scummy thing to do. In addition, he voted against Gotard pretty early. On the other hand, he posts a lot of bullshit nonsensical stuff. It makes him really hard to read because that seems like his personality. Not only has he not done any if-I-die posts, but he has not really had any large analysis posts which is scummy. If you can't tell by now I could go either way on him. A lot of people seemed confident that he is town so I never really pushed it. Ill be happy to look into him though.
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RDO why did you not vote Gotard? A large part of your suspicion of Umasi seemed to be because you thought he was working with Gotard who you believed to be scum. So why would you vote Umasi and not Gotard? Did that make sense?
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Slam I would hardly say I am doing goo. I have been wrong on several of my reads so far primarily reps and zyrre. Also I am curious to know, why are you suspicious of me, and why can't it be said until night?
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Hey I went through RDO's filter again with the intention of counting the number of times he either defends himself, plays the newb card, and gives excuses.
I came to these counts:
Defends himself: 12 times
Plays newb card: 4 times
Gives excuses: 3 times
Sometimes they are really subtle and easy to miss. Those counts are not 100 percent accurate. It is also worth mentioning that he apologizes a ton.
Here are some great examples:
1. We haven't seen a ton of substance from you yet (oh yes I'm totally a hypocrite): Newb card
2. My main point is I think he's just a bad player who has no clue what the hell he's doing. Like me!!!: Newb card
3. just a couple of hours after I really started playing last night: defends himself
4. As you can see I've been trying to pick up my posting in the past couple of pages. Started slow obviously. Newb and also kinda defense
5. As a note to all parties, I will be offline from now until tomorrow evening again...so ask any last questions about my innocence within the next fifteen minutes or hang on to them for a while.: defends himself
6. That's part of it for sure...I also was busy with work, and this is my first game, so I'm just getting into it. : WOW excuse, noob, and defends himself
7. I'm new to this game too, I'm not going to play it perfectly. But I'm going to play the damn thing now, not just sit on my hands.: Newb
8. FUCK. I was at the card shop for a magic sealed event and my phone died, which is why I couldn't switch when we went for gotard. Sorry guys, yes that looks scummy as hell.: Excuse and preemptively defending himself.
Wow maybe there was more newb cards then I thought.
Also he drops the Umasi suspicion before the lynch and doesn't vote switch. Ill brb with that info.
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On August 04 2013 04:07 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
Gotard's vote totally fucked up where I thought this game was going....so much for them working together like it seemed imo. Time to reevaluate.
My suspicions remain on usami for now, but I'm going to go back and do some reevaluating
,
I think scam just doesn't give a fuck. If you look at this post history you can see he's been on TL a lot fairly recently, if he we're mafia he'd probably be getting a lot of pressure from his team to post. Still hard to tell though obviously since he's done nothing. He doesn't seem to responding to the pressure he's gotten, so there more's not much we can do
Anyway, more to come
This is really bizarre. He is suspicious of an Umasi/Gotard pair. Before this he made a pretty convincing case against Gotard (convincing in that it seemed genuine) declaring that he thought Gotrad was scum. Gotard votes Umasi and RDO doesn't vote switch? What!? A huge part of his suspicion of Umasi was because of his scum read on Gotard. Why would he not vote Gotard when the pair distanced themselves.
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On August 04 2013 23:09 RDaneelOlivaw wrote:
Umasi's done a ok job of defending himself imo, agree with you on that slam. Pressure successful. Gotard next.
Would you mind cutting down on the random stuff in your posts slam? Makes it harder to go through the thread yo. You're a solid town read and its just your style, but burying the thread in fluff helps the scum anyway by diluting the useful info
My reads thus far
Slam- town -
Stim and infii -town- I'm accepting the mason act for now, still a little suspicious of that early behavior from stim but w/e - infii seems like a lock to me, so stim by extension
Zyree- mild town read off of him, but now he's stopped posting...I'll give him a little more time but thats scummy if it continues
nightcat-not a lot of great posts, but he does seem to be trying to build a pro-town atmosphere. Good enough for me atm
scam- god knows what he is. May he rot in a particularly scummy mafia hell
Umasi- scum by extension--more suspicious of him because of Gotard and Deus- still just have a scummy feel from him
Gotard- scum- my reasoning hasn't changed
Deus- scummy--mostly because of the way he handled his "suspicions" of umasi - he stated that he suspected him several times throughout the early game but never elaborated on that suspicion--basically, enough to make me think that the suspicion may only be a show...his reasoning for dropping it, as zyree pointed out, is very weak.
And then this. Last post before lynch. He claims he is going to move on from Umasi to Gotard but doesn't vote switch. Why would he not vote switch at this very moment? Totes scum. I think we nailed him.
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And now maybe he has just given up seeing that the odds are heavily against him.
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EPT
