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Chromatically thinks that this post came from a town player, so I think everyone should read it a few times or more.
On July 14 2013 04:29 Superfluous wrote:Going back through the posts, I'm a little alarmed at Hurricane Sponge's change of tone. In this post he disagrees with my opinion and says it casts suspicion on me, but doesnt state that I'm a huge scumread or anything. Here I interpreted his post as acknowledging that while we disagree, I was still trying to state my opinion and reasons for having that view. He then says some weird things here though. For instance, he says that he agrees with others' view of me who had semi-defended me, and in the same list puts me as the only scum read. I realize his view may have changed, but it strikes me especially considering in the second post I listed he acknowledged the possibility of a bandwagon on me just because of differing opinions. We also have a mutual disagreement on reads as well. I don't see how hzflank and xzavier have contributed substantially more than me. While knowing everyone's scum reads is good, I don't like it when people show up, say their scum reads, then expect other people to act on them. As for Stim I think he's more likely bad town then mafia. Then again everyone else is saying the same thing, so could be mafia excuse for not lynching him.
After reading this a few times I see multiple possibilities for Super's motives.
Super could actually be scum hunting here, but if so I disagree with his conclusions (That would not make Super scummy, disagreeing with conclusions is fine). Super misinterprets why Sponge says his (Super's) first post is scummy, which makes it seem to Super that Sponge's next post is inconsistent. I do not fully understand Super's points regarding Sponge's third post.
Maybe Super could clarify that bit for me?
Having a disagreement on reads (with Sponge) is irrelevant at that point as long as you can see the reasons for the reads. The earliest point that this can possibly matter is shortly before the day 1 deadline.
Super then makes a really weird attack towards me, but I suppose that might be because he is seeing association between Sponge and I? (in a later post he claims that it is not due to association). I disagree that I should not share my reads as I like to share information when possible and encourage others to do the same. I disagree that I ever expected other people to push my reads, especially since I was already pushing my read on Super before he even made that post.
He is gently pushing Sponge and then including me in his post where possible.
My conclusion on this is that if my case on Super was solely based on this post then I would have no case. However, this post does not look town enough to make me drop the rest of my case, as this post could definitely of been made by a scum who was starting to feel pressure, and there is nothing about this post that gives me a very strong town read.
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On July 15 2013 02:04 Chromatically wrote:If someone finds any part of that defense convincing, I can respond to it, but it doesn't change anything at all. Show nested quote +Anyway, who can really give confident scum reads halfway through day one? Anyone one who pretends that they can is either overconfident and bullshitting themselves, or actually scum. The point is that Kirby hasn't given any real scumreads and hasn't actually been trying to find them.
The reason for the posts to Sponge was fair enough. Even so, he still did not post enough real content until he was heavily pressured, but if he was afk then that is understandable. So, I believe his defence regarding the fluff point, so long as he makes more good posts before the end of the day.
I do not buy his defence of his reads or of his Stim interactions, but I will post my comments on that in a separate post directed at Kirby.
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To address Kirby's defence of his reads:
On July 15 2013 01:47 jrkirby wrote:
I said this before, and I'll say it again: I have real trouble seeing scum until I see voting patterns.
Fortunately, I have seen a bit of voting now, so right after this post, I'm gonna dive some filters, read some scum, and give a vote.
Anyway, who can really give confident scum reads halfway through day one? Anyone one who pretends that they can is either overconfident and bullshitting themselves, or actually scum.
On July 15 2013 02:13 jrkirby wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 01:59 StiMaDDict wrote:@jkirby: I know you said you are working on your reads right now, just reminding you to elaborate and explain this. Honestly? I have real trouble seeing scum until I see voting patterns. I'm slightly more suspicious of Sponge, Umasi, and Rainbows than the rest. Sponge I've stated my reasons for. I don't really trust my read on Rainbows because [meta here] I thought he was scum last time I played with him and he wasn't. Umasi just reads a bit ornery, so that could be the reason for my weak read. Elaboration: What is the real scumtell at the end of the day? Who they voted for, when and why. Any scum can say anything they like, for example, they could choose to post a list of lurkers or choose not to post a list of lurkers. While some people might think that what they say is the scumtell, for example, Chromatically thinks anyone who posts a list of lurkers is automatically scum, in the end, scum can choose either way, and act as townish as they possibly can. Where the scum CAN'T hide, is their vote. Scum always vote with another reason behind it. They might buss each other, they might sheep, might spread out, might vote together. But at the end of the day, they vote with a different reason than town. And looking at how they vote is how you can find that. If no one has voted, I really don't think that you can find scum better than chance.
Voting pattern's are one of the things that we look at to find scum. However, they are primarily used in association with reads that you already have. In fact, it is probably better to form reads first and then see if the voting patterns justify the reads.
It might well be that you are not confident in your scum-hunting yet, but that does not mean that you should not try. In fact, your exchange with Sponge shows us that you were trying to scum-hunt at the start of the day. You claimed to be suspicious of Umasi and Rainbows. You did nothing to attempt to clarify your read on Umasi. You did attempt to clarify your read on Rainbows, but for one reason or another gave up very quickly.
I think your defence is believable from a town perspective, but it is also weak and therefore does nothing to change my current read on you, which is scummy.
To address Kirby's defence of his Stim interaction (which is why I think that Kirby is scummy):
On July 13 2013 13:38 jrkirby wrote:
I don't think he's town. I think he's stupid, and have a nullread.
On July 15 2013 01:47 jrkirby wrote:
And when I'm talking to someone to try to help them calm down, I'm going to phrase it from a "we're both town" perspective. Doing it any other way is going to backfire.
Then why did you call him stupid?
This is the most damning point that I have seen against you. You treat Stim as though you have a town read on him and then call him stupid and claim to have a null read.
You now say that you were trying to help him calm down. Yet you called him stupid.
When in your life have you ever gotten someone to calm down by calling them stupid? Why did you call Stim stupid?
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On July 15 2013 02:57 Rainbows wrote:
So I've done some analysis of the voting patterns of the moment. JrKirby is in grave danger... why isn't he voting Super?
That strikes me as odd. Scum would do it to stay alive. Town would do it to stay alive. Anyone have some insight as to motivation (with the exception of 'he thinks Gotard is scum and not Super') because I can't justify it from either alignments perspective.
There are several hours until the deadline so he can move his vote later as required. I would not read too much into it.
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On July 15 2013 03:45 Superfluous wrote:
Firstly I agree with Chroma's response to this, these are everyone's priorities especially early on.
I do not and will not agree with this, and I expect that most other people will not agree, either. When the game starts, at the beginning of day 1, the first priority for scum is to not get lynched. The first priority for town is to create an atmosphere in which good reads can be made. The second priority for town is to hunt for scum and try to strengthen their reads. Staying alive barely even registers on the list of things to do.
You admit that the first thing that you did was try to stay alive. I suppose you have to now as you cannot backtrack on that. It is my opinion that having such priorities makes you scum.
I do not want to tunnel you over a single point, so I will call that a big red mark and wait to see what you post before the deadline. I see no point in pressuring you directly on this issue as you are just going to claim philosophical differences, which I consider a weak defense when your philosophy is terrible.
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On July 15 2013 04:12 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 03:57 hzflank wrote:On July 15 2013 03:45 Superfluous wrote:
Firstly I agree with Chroma's response to this, these are everyone's priorities especially early on. I do not and will not agree with this, and I expect that most other people will not agree, either. When the game starts, at the beginning of day 1, the first priority for scum is to not get lynched. The first priority for town is to create an atmosphere in which good reads can be made. The second priority for town is to hunt for scum and try to strengthen their reads. Staying alive barely even registers on the list of things to do. You admit that the first thing that you did was try to stay alive. I suppose you have to now as you cannot backtrack on that. It is my opinion that having such priorities makes you scum. I do not want to tunnel you over a single point, so I will call that a big red mark and wait to see what you post before the deadline. I see no point in pressuring you directly on this issue as you are just going to claim philosophical differences, which I consider a weak defense when your philosophy is terrible. Here is a DIRECT QUOTE from Incognito's "General Guide to Mafia"Show nested quote +Priority #1: Establishing Your Innocence So, you know how to look for mafia and are ready to smoke them out. But unfortunately, just knowing how to find mafia is not good enough. The other part of the equation is convincing the town that you’ve found them. While you may be correct, it takes more than your own vote to properly seal the deal and kill off the mafia. As a townie, your number 1 priority is to establish your innocence. Why? Establishing your innocence does three things: - It gives you a credible platform from which you can push your agenda
- It reduces the mafia’s options for pushing their agenda - they can’t attack you without some serious consequences
- It reduces the number of viable mafia candidates - if the town thinks you are innocent that’s one less person to worry about
You do not establish your innocence by trying to avoid being lynched from the very start of the game. You establish your innocence by explaining your thought processes to other players.
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On July 15 2013 04:38 Rainbows wrote:
everyone thinks the guys on trial are scummy... except for theirbcounterwagons. dafaq is going on.
I'm trying to get my head around this but it is WIFOM. It is just as likely that neither are scum as it as that both are scum, or of course just one of them might be scum.
If the remaining 3 players would get their votes down then we might start to use this (2 hours until deadline). But from the spot we are in now I personally cannot use it.
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EBWOP: remaining 4 players, Rainbows unvoted.
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On July 15 2013 05:02 Rainbows wrote:
My gut says super.
Can you try to elaborate on that?
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Nightcat and Cloud, do you have anything to contribute?
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On July 15 2013 05:06 StiMaDDict wrote:
@hzflank: The deadline is 8:00 PM EDT. That's about 4 hours from now.
That's not what a mod recently posted in the vote thread.
Can you please tell us when the deadline is?
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On July 15 2013 05:13 Rainbows wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 05:07 Rainbows wrote:
Not really. I phone post 90% of the time so it's hard to sit down and make a case of it.
I feel like either of them could be scum. Super just toqnreads everyone when as town you should be suspect of everyone I lied this describes Gotard better. My votes on super but I really dont care who's lynched between the two. #Scummylogic
So you think that Gotard and Super are scum, but not Kirby?
Just trying to clarify.
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On July 15 2013 05:29 Superfluous wrote:
Well the main strength of vet is getting hit at a point when mafia needs a kill then claiming. Now you should lead town since you claimed but you're saying you are getting replaced.
It'd be a risky claim by maf but there's no definitive role list so we can't be certain that you're telling the truth, even if you probably are and this is just a bad play.
VT = Vanilla Town
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EBWOP:
And we're all VTs in here.
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On July 15 2013 05:42 Rainbows wrote:
I take forever to do stuff cus phone at work.
kirby if you're blue, claim now.
Don't claim anything yet. We still have more than an hour and there is still analysis to be done. This is arguably the best time to scum hunt.
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On July 15 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I'd be on board for a gotard hammer if someone can make a good case that mafia are on this wagon pushing for a mislynch.
You don't think that Mafia are on that wagon? From my position you are on the scummy wagon.
I am reading Gotard again. I did not think that the cases against him were strong, but on the other hand Gotard's filter after 24 hours was horrible. The problem that I have with reading his more recent posts is that I am struggling to separate an alignment read from a personality read. I think Gotard could very well be scum, but I still think that Super is more likely.
If you look at Chrom's defense of Super, almost every point was that it was bad play rather than scum play. When you make that many consecutive defenses and call them all bad play then alarm bells should be ringing.
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On July 15 2013 05:59 Chromatically wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 05:56 hzflank wrote:
If you look at Chrom's defense of Super, almost every point was that it was bad play rather than scum play. When you make that many consecutive defenses and call them all bad play then alarm bells should be ringing. Why would this make you think that he's scum? Is your entire reasoning for him being scum that he's bad?
No, I have made it clear why I think he is scum. Your entire reasoning for him being town is that he is bad.
I do not buy it. The way that he writes makes him come across as a reasonable player. He has even made a couple of good posts recently, but he did not make them until he very much had to do so.
If I could understand a reason for his early play that does not rely on him being bad then I would be willing to strongly reconsider my vote, but no matter how many times I go over it I just cannot get there.
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On July 15 2013 06:47 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 05:56 hzflank wrote:On July 15 2013 05:46 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
I'd be on board for a gotard hammer if someone can make a good case that mafia are on this wagon pushing for a mislynch. You don't think that Mafia are on that wagon? From my position you are on the scummy wagon.I am reading Gotard again. I did not think that the cases against him were strong, but on the other hand Gotard's filter after 24 hours was horrible. The problem that I have with reading his more recent posts is that I am struggling to separate an alignment read from a personality read. I think Gotard could very well be scum, but I still think that Super is more likely. If you look at Chrom's defense of Super, almost every point was that it was bad play rather than scum play. When you make that many consecutive defenses and call them all bad play then alarm bells should be ringing. Elaborate on this if you can, hz.
Gotard is scummy. Stim is still at least in the top 5 of my scum list. Nightcat is a lurker who just randomly added his vote. Chrom is neutral at best. At best that wagon has 2 scummy, 2 neutral and 2 townie players on it.
The other wagon has Umasi, who I think is townie. Xzavier who is neutral (too much lurking, his posts are not good enough to make up for that that much lurking) and Koshi. Some other people have been calling Koshi scum recently, but I have him as neutral.
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On July 15 2013 07:20 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On July 15 2013 07:16 Koshi wrote:Then why is Chroma defending him so hard? He is even making up fucking reasons. 1) Xzav lurked before suddenly jumping on him
2) Xzav read him as scum
3) Xzav hasn't contributed
4) Xzav lurked and then sheeped thread sentiment by voting for him
5) Gut read I am laughing so hard when I read these reasons after reading the super log over and over. Because he believes very strongly in his read. This is the towniest thing since Lord Patrick Townington went to townville. He doesn't have a self-preservation instinct because he's town, and not under suspicion. He can throw himself around with abandon like this because he has mental freedom scum does not possess. Attacking Chrom will get you nowhere with me. Focus on the subjects.
Chrom's whole defense of Super was that town should put self-preservation first.
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EBWOP:
Perhaps not Chrom's whole defense of Super, but a big part of it.
Either way, Chrom does have self-preservation instinct.
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EPT
