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On July 04 2013 00:45 JarJarDrinks wrote:Here's a small case I made on Fuba : Show nested quote +On July 03 2013 21:56 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Not totally caught up but I see fuba claimed 3rd party. Few things first:
- Doesn't that pretty much mean he's extremely unlikely to win? If I'm 3rd party I think I'd just counter the scummiest looking dude and take my chances.
- Why not jail someone? Especially gumshoe who claimed blue and could potentially vig kill him? Saying that he figured vig would shoot lazr or marv seems like a poor reason to not use ur ability.
- I find it way too coincidental that he's the last claim and he happens to have the only non-red role left in the game. That means for him to be telling the truth, every scummy got lucky and picked a role not already in the game.
Gonna reread stuff but I doubt I'll see anything that would make me want to vote anywhere else. and I really want to emphasize that last point: The last person to claim just so happened to have the only role left in the gameAdd to that the fact that FUBA IS THE ONLY PERSON IN THE THREAD THAT WE CAN AFFORD TO MISLYNCH AND NOT LOSE THE GAME and it becomes a no-brainer.
You're still looking at it the wrong way. Because you're potentially throwing away one of our lynches just to be 'safe' when we will STILL have to lynch all the mafia. Lynching mafia reduces KP too.
You're effectively gambling on the chance that fuba is mafia, which I don't think is THAT high.
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Generally I think lynching someone because you can afford their mislynch is an upside-down way of looking at things.
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Jarjar, if you're around later today, I'll read super-thoroughly into fuba and discuss it with you.
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On July 04 2013 00:53 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 00:45 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 00:42 Stutters695 wrote:
Marv, now that I'm caught up, what do you make of Gumshoe's claim?
When he claimed and said he was blue as opposed to a PR, he claimed being vengeful/vet, practically ensuring he wasn't shot over night and nullifying any benefit of his Vengeful role. It's not an unreasonable assumption to assume scum wouldn't expect every PR to be in the game as well so if they knew You/Lazer were truthful claiming that they're Vet/Venge guarantees they don't die overnight. Only consolation is he claimed before Vivax so he'd be taking a large unecessary risk. Think there is any chance he's scum? I'm kinda leaning he's telling the truth by necessity. There's no difference between blue and PR, they're the same lingo. i.e. he could have been vigilante. I'd say that how his explanation came about (opposing / uncomfortable with massclaiming ----> being blue) does make sense. Well by saying PR I was including the possibility of the 3p in there but i guess it doesnt really matter. Its just weird he brings that up when there is literally no upside to saying that at night when the best possible thing that could happen is he eats a nk.
The upside is that if he eats a NK he gets to take a shot. That was the point as far as I can tell.
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On July 04 2013 01:00 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 00:49 marvellosity wrote:
Generally I think lynching someone because you can afford their mislynch is an upside-down way of looking at things. Isn't that why vote no-lynch @ Mylo is a good strategy? Please answer these questions marv: - Do you agree that if we mislynch today we lose the game? - Are you 100% sure that WoS is scum? Cause if you answer yes to the first, I don't know how you can answer no to the 2nd.
No-lynch almost always happens at 3-1 because regardless of whether you lynch at 3-1 or 2-1, there's only one lynch remaining to get right. If we lynch mafia and reduce KP *now*, for example, we get to no-lynch at a 3-1 situation further down the line (6-3-1 -> 6-2-1 ->5-2-1, 5-2-0->4-2-0, 4-1-0->3-1-0, nl)
What you're not grasping that I'm getting at is that delaying our fate by one more today is pointless as far as I can tell. We lynch fuba today, and THEN we have to be "100%" sure on all our lynches for the next 3 cycles, or we lose. Unless you're arguing that fuba has a high enough chance of flipping mafia now, throwing away reducing KP and possibly giving us an extra mislynch/nolynch later
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On July 04 2013 01:10 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:07 Lazermonkey wrote:
And even then, why not claim right away D1? Cause he'd be the guaranteed not-town lynch. That's pretty much a nobrainer.
Any townie who lynches a survivor on day 1 deserves to be shot for being stupid.
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On July 04 2013 01:07 Stutters695 wrote:
Exactly, but by claiming blue when he can't be miller/cop makes him not a good target to shoot. If scum has RB they can RB on the chance he's vig and leave him alone if he's vet/vengeful, effectively making himself a VT for no reason. I'm just not following it from either alignment really.
Right, I get you. You're saying that after the claims already given, there's only 1/3 chance his bluerole is actually dangerous to mafia in that they want to shoot him then and there?
I guess that basically presupposes that a) he thinks both claims already given are legit and b) he thought it through (I can imagine if i was vengeful townie I might try a gambit like that without thinking through the exact implications)
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By the way, JarJar, you were scum so you probably weren't paying attention in Les Mis ( ), but I also heavily pushed the idea that we needed to take a risk on day 3 (i think) and risk losing to give us a better chance later.
Of course it was all bs, but that's my general mentality.
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On July 04 2013 01:16 gumshoe wrote:
WOS frequently dances around the idea of Marv as scum but rarely pushes it. Virtually all his statements in regard to Marv are responses despite Marv supposedly being his number 1 read. Even when confronted with a situation in which Marv has to be scum 100 percent (him getting role blocked randomly because Marv was in danger) he doesn't follow up and tries to redirect the situation onto the blues. In fact Hes barely mentioned Marv since he took his shot. TLDR if WOS is town he needs to be pushing Marv, he isn't and therefor he is scum, which means Marv is likely scum too because if he was town WOS could quite easily get away with bussing him, yet he chooses not to.
So you'd incriminate me based on the failings of a (presumably) flipped mafia? What a star. WoS is sitting back and seeing what shit sticks, how lovely that you're here to connect the dots for him 
I assume you're another one of those who doesn't understand how retarded fakeclaiming miller for no reason at the start of day 1 was? Yes? Lovely.
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TIL from gumshoe: next time i roll mafia, sound convinced that a townie is scum and then stop pushing it. that townie is sure to get lynched after I die.
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On July 04 2013 01:24 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:20 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 01:16 gumshoe wrote:
WOS frequently dances around the idea of Marv as scum but rarely pushes it. Virtually all his statements in regard to Marv are responses despite Marv supposedly being his number 1 read. Even when confronted with a situation in which Marv has to be scum 100 percent (him getting role blocked randomly because Marv was in danger) he doesn't follow up and tries to redirect the situation onto the blues. In fact Hes barely mentioned Marv since he took his shot. TLDR if WOS is town he needs to be pushing Marv, he isn't and therefor he is scum, which means Marv is likely scum too because if he was town WOS could quite easily get away with bussing him, yet he chooses not to.
So you'd incriminate me based on the failings of a (presumably) flipped mafia? What a star. WoS is sitting back and seeing what shit sticks, how lovely that you're here to connect the dots for him I assume you're another one of those who doesn't understand how retarded fakeclaiming miller for no reason at the start of day 1 was? Yes? Lovely. That is unless scum had fake claims. Which seems to be the case. You yourself have proposed this. BTW dont worry were not lynching you today : P. Also WOS is a good player and a fellow canadian. He would not make such an easy mistake.
It would be a lot less dumb than fakeclaiming miller 5 minutes into the game in an unfamiliar setup with a highchance of town rolling miller. Just sayin like.
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On July 04 2013 01:27 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:22 marvellosity wrote:
TIL from gumshoe: next time i roll mafia, sound convinced that a townie is scum and then stop pushing it. that townie is sure to get lynched after I die. Marv I'd just like to say it's a pleasure playing with you XD and yes that townie might die but only after you : P
<3
lol I gotta laugh or I'd cry.
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On July 04 2013 01:29 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:27 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 01:24 gumshoe wrote:On July 04 2013 01:20 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 01:16 gumshoe wrote:
WOS frequently dances around the idea of Marv as scum but rarely pushes it. Virtually all his statements in regard to Marv are responses despite Marv supposedly being his number 1 read. Even when confronted with a situation in which Marv has to be scum 100 percent (him getting role blocked randomly because Marv was in danger) he doesn't follow up and tries to redirect the situation onto the blues. In fact Hes barely mentioned Marv since he took his shot. TLDR if WOS is town he needs to be pushing Marv, he isn't and therefor he is scum, which means Marv is likely scum too because if he was town WOS could quite easily get away with bussing him, yet he chooses not to.
So you'd incriminate me based on the failings of a (presumably) flipped mafia? What a star. WoS is sitting back and seeing what shit sticks, how lovely that you're here to connect the dots for him I assume you're another one of those who doesn't understand how retarded fakeclaiming miller for no reason at the start of day 1 was? Yes? Lovely. That is unless scum had fake claims. Which seems to be the case. You yourself have proposed this. BTW dont worry were not lynching you today : P. Also WOS is a good player and a fellow canadian. He would not make such an easy mistake. It would be a lot less dumb than fakeclaiming miller 5 minutes into the game in an unfamiliar setup with a highchance of town rolling miller. Just sayin like. Sooooo your agreeing with me? Also seeing as we dont even have 1 conflict of identity dont you think it's somewhat likely scum have fake claims? If not fake claims then what? The host himself said the setup hasn't been fully revealed.
Don't know how you read that as agreeing with you. I don't know what scum had, like I said earlier I find it somewhat less likely that they were just shooting in the dark, even if that does potentially weaken my miller claim somewhat. All you're saying about WoS is that you think he wouldn't make that mistake, while I disagree, players a lot better than him have made worse mistakes.
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On July 04 2013 01:32 WaveofShadow wrote:
Phoneposting atm
awww nobody wants to react to my posting
makes me sad
Town:
Im dead anyway so I honestly couldnt care less if you guys want to hand the game to scum but id seriously consider hearing me out when the time comes
scumteam:
you forced me into this when I was trying to be all nice to you. i suppose you didnt have a choice considering fuba had to claim late and might have been lynched today especially if he took the miller claim but now you can be damn sure ill push for it.
that is of course unless town doesnt care about what i have to say in which case the games is yours gentlmen
Could really do with you explaining your terribad shot on me if you're town, dear.
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On July 04 2013 01:37 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:36 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 01:32 WaveofShadow wrote:
Phoneposting atm
awww nobody wants to react to my posting
makes me sad
Town:
Im dead anyway so I honestly couldnt care less if you guys want to hand the game to scum but id seriously consider hearing me out when the time comes
scumteam:
you forced me into this when I was trying to be all nice to you. i suppose you didnt have a choice considering fuba had to claim late and might have been lynched today especially if he took the miller claim but now you can be damn sure ill push for it.
that is of course unless town doesnt care about what i have to say in which case the games is yours gentlmen Could really do with you explaining your terribad shot on me if you're town, dear. oh im not.
you're survivor?
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Seems he's claiming survivor.
I'll wait until later and hear his explanations out. As a token of good faith:
##unvote
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On July 04 2013 01:41 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:41 marvellosity wrote:
Seems he's claiming survivor.
I'll wait until later and hear his explanations out. As a token of good faith:
##unvote no marv by all means lynch me cause im terrible
Or you could not make pointless snarks when you've apparently been lying the whole game? Just explain whatever it is you want to explain when you're ready.
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On July 04 2013 01:44 WaveofShadow wrote:
later tonight
im not sure what info i should give you though because theres a chance i might still be able to live even though scum apparently want me dead
ill think about it
now time to clean up barf off the couch
all of it else you die, given we now have two guaranteed non-town lynches (you and fuba)
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I'm dying to know what the rationale for fakeclaiming a shot on me was.
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On July 04 2013 01:49 WaveofShadow wrote:then lynch me breh Show nested quote +On July 04 2013 01:46 marvellosity wrote:On July 04 2013 01:44 WaveofShadow wrote:
later tonight
im not sure what info i should give you though because theres a chance i might still be able to live even though scum apparently want me dead
ill think about it
now time to clean up barf off the couch all of it else you die, given we now have two guaranteed non-town lynches (you and fuba) oh shit dem threats. if you dont kill me scum does so i honestly dont give a fuck i just have to decide who i want to give the game to basically byeeeeeeee
This makes no sense. Scum have no motive to kill you over a townie.
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EPT
