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On June 29 2013 11:34 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 11:31 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 11:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 27 2013 22:35 Aquanim wrote:
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
If you have been roleblocked (you will have been notified by a PM from the host), claim in the thread in your next post that you have been roleblocked. This is NOT a claim that you have a role to be blocked. A player with no powers may also be blocked. This information is far more valuable to the town than it is to mafia when revealed. If you doubt this, check any recent normal game with roleblock/jailkeeper roles. (It just occured to me that no-one has said this yet, and perhaps there's someone who doesn't know.) We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK. <facepalm> Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach. Bad answer. If someone was roleblocked they would of contacted a coach if they needed to. You needed to know whether someone was roleblocked. Why?
Enforcing that anyone who is roleblocked must claim it is beneficial to town. It's common knowledge in normal TL mafia games but it occured to me that people in this game might not know. I never assume that anyone asks their coach about anything, even if they should.
That was my only motivation behind this post.
If you still think that's scummy, I tell you again to check with your coach.
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On June 29 2013 11:37 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 16:45 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 16:33 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 16:01 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 15:50 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote:
I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum.
##Vote: Aquanim Can you explain this some more? What exactly about my play do you think is scum-motivated? Can you please post your case against me as the only thing you have said is I didnt respond when things were going on, well I was going to sleep when HZ posted his case, I responded to the NN thing and have scum hunted and tried to create a useful town atmosphere. I have no idea what this request has to do with the post you quoted, but whatever... The first page and a half or so of your filter is just talking about policy, power roles and random fluff without any particular intention of finding scum. This isn't damning in as of itself, early game does tend to be like that, but the entirety of your efforts in the direction of finding scum is an overwhelming tunnel of myself. As far as I can tell, you haven't looked at anyone else at all, and endlessly tunneling a likely lynch target for the day while repeating the same old arguments (made by other people before you, mostly) over and over is a good way to look active while not actually bringing anything new to the table or having to pretend to do some original scumhunting. You haven't made any significant and new contributions to the thread, which is scum's natural state. That being said, I think it's possible that you're town and that you think tunneling me like this is accomplishing something, which is why I'm voting Xzavier over you. Actually I have made a scum hunt albit small on alakaslam, I think he is noob scum which isnt as important as killing a scum who knows what they are doing. You mentioned that he might be scum, but I haven't seen any attempt from you to pressure him, to solidify your read on him, or to suggest him as a lynch for today - that is, you haven't committed much to your read. What about his play is scummy to you? Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 18:12 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 18:08 Onegu wrote:On June 25 2013 17:35 Aquanim wrote:On June 25 2013 17:27 hzflank wrote:Xzavier, Onegu and I all seem to have similar opinions on scum voting, yet we all seem to have greatly differing personalities. This leads me to believe that Xzavier and Onegu are town, as I think they arrived at their opinions by looking at the situation from a town point of view. The only slight worry I have on Xzavier is: On June 25 2013 14:33 Xzavier wrote:
Whats the massive scum yell. cuz im not gonna lie. i skimmed threw all the noisy neighbor spam just to see who was asking for them to claim. no other part of it means anything to me xD But that could just be a character trait or a lack of time. On the whole I am uncomfortable with the votes on Xzavier. Is there anything about Xzavier and Onegu's play which makes you think they're town besides where their vote is? Personally, I can't see anything about their play which makes me think they're looking at this game with a town mentality and actually searching for scum, rather than just jumping on the only other wagon going. I think they are likely scum but I have a much townier read on you because I can see you're thinking about the game and critically evaluating your reads. Their arguments, on the other hand, are mostly "herp derp he disagreed with us about nosy neighbours" and "look at this single post and how it agrees with something someone else said, that's so scummy!". I don't think either of them could sincerely believe I'm scum based on the arguments they've presented. You said you had some questions for me, will they be forthcoming soon? Ok fine I will admit my case on you with my own findings isnt that strong. And looking at Alakaslam again he is my stronger case. ##: UNVOTE
##: VOTE ALAKASLAMBut if we lynch Xzavier and he flips town we will be lynching you day 2. Okay. The ball's in your court now to convince the rest of us that Alakaslam is a better lynch than anyone else on the table. Coaching scum
If I was scum, and I was going to coach scum, I'd do it in the scum QT. What exactly is the point you're trying to make?
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Seriously, Hurricane, you've almost posted a consecutive page of stuff which could just as easily have gone in a single post. Could you please consolidate your posts?
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On June 29 2013 11:48 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 18:19 Aquanim wrote:
@Onegu: The prevailing thread sentiment at the moment appears to be that you are a favoured lynch for today. I imagine you don't want that, so who do you think we should lynch instead? Your goal should be to persuade the thread that your scum read is more likely to flip scum than you are. Asking leading questions. Instead of 'defend yourself' it is 'who should be lynch instead'.
WHAT IS SCUMMY ABOUT THIS
ARE YOU EVEN LISTENING TO ME
It was already clear that Onegu would have to defend himself. I wanted to see what his reads were, to put more information into the thread. Knowing what his reads were may now make it easier to find his scumbuddies.
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On June 29 2013 11:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 20:42 Aquanim wrote:On June 28 2013 20:40 hzflank wrote:
Because the mafia did not know who Onegu's number one town read was. Why did they have to know? Alakaslam's claim that Onegu visited Hurricane (as opposed to visiting anyone else) could just be a coincidence. Literally no townie thought like this. Displays a completely different frame of reference
I was RIGHT. Can you seriously not understand this.
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On June 29 2013 12:11 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2013 21:01 Aquanim wrote:
To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched.
You said yourself that our town list was: Aquanim, Hurricane, FirmTofu and hzflank. So, if you actually believed the above quote then you would of pushed for the four of us to work together. In the end, what you have actually done is ”convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum”Your case against Alakaslam did the exact same thing that you claimed the scum fake claim was trying to do.
My case against Alakaslam was intended to push for all of the townies in the thread to get behind it. My read was in fact wrong and the end result is that a townie was mislynched. As a townie, that was obviously not my intention.
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On June 29 2013 12:19 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 12:16 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 12:11 hzflank wrote:On June 28 2013 21:01 Aquanim wrote:
To get enough mislynches in this situation, scum have to convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum. The most plausible way to do this is to find a way to counter Onegu's claim, since there is still some thread sentiment against him, and without the claim FirmTofu at least has proved his desire to see Onegu lynched.
You said yourself that our town list was: Aquanim, Hurricane, FirmTofu and hzflank. So, if you actually believed the above quote then you would of pushed for the four of us to work together. In the end, what you have actually done is ”convince us that one of the people we previously thought was town is in fact scum”Your case against Alakaslam did the exact same thing that you claimed the scum fake claim was trying to do. My case against Alakaslam was intended to push for all of the townies in the thread to get behind it. My read was in fact wrong and the end result is that a townie was mislynched. As a townie, that was obviously not my intention. No. That quote contains your reason as to why the scum team would be motivated to fake claim. But if you apply that same logic to the reason why you should or should not of defended Onegu, then you should not. it is inconsistent
I don't actually understand what you're saying here.
I defended Onegu because I thought he was town. I wanted to lynch Alakaslam because I thought he was scum.
Can you rephrase what you're saying?
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hzflank, can you please reword what this "inconsistency" is? I don't understand what you're trying to say.
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On June 29 2013 12:37 hzflank wrote:
If you actually believed what (you claim is) is the scum team's motivation for a fake-counter-claim is, and you had played out end game scenarios (which you obviously had in that very post) then your vote would of voted for Onegu.
This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid.
Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim.
So what you're saying here is that I shouldn't have voted for the person I believed was scum because if the person I strongly believed was scum was actually town I would look bad?
You think that I should have instead voted for the person who I thought was town because if the person I strongly believed was town, but voted for them anyway, flipped town you think I wouldn't look bad?
Check your logic.
You seem to be assuming that I knew Alakaslam would be a mislynch, which I did not.
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On June 29 2013 12:49 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 12:40 FirmTofu wrote:On June 29 2013 12:37 hzflank wrote:
If you actually believed what (you claim is) is the scum team's motivation for a fake-counter-claim is, and you had played out end game scenarios (which you obviously had in that very post) then your vote would of voted for Onegu.
This is because by playing out your end game scenarios you would know that if we mislynch Alakaslam while you are on the wrong wagon, then we end up in the exact same end game scenario that you claim we must avoid.
Therefore, you did not believe in the reason that you gave for the motivation behind the scum's fake claim. Are you talking to Aquanim in this post? Yes. And I am a horrible communicator so I will try to put it another way again. Aquanim is looking at the end game scenarios. Aquanim states that the motivation behind the scum making a risky play is because we have 4 confirmed town reads. Aquanim acts in the best way to get an end game scenario where we no longer have those 4 confirmed town read.
You think that as scum I would try to ensure that I was no longer a confirmed town read? What are you even trying to say?
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If I were scum, trying to mislynch Alakaslam (who I would, as scum, know to be a townie and soon to be confirmed) would indeed be the correct play.
As town, who did not know which of the two were scum but believed that Alakaslam was scum and that Onegu would be confirmed town in that case, trying to lynch Alakaslam (who I did not know was town) is STILL the correct play.
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Why don't you think that I could have made that case as a townie?
You seriously considered it, Hurricane believed it and voted for Alakaslam at least partially based on it... there were no serious flaws in it.
I think the knowledge you have now (that Alakaslam is in fact town) is warping your judgement as to whether I could have believed that case.
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On June 29 2013 16:41 FirmTofu wrote:
Aquanim. Read carefully. I think I have figured out the best way to exonerate yourself.
Pick your strongest scum read(other than Onegu) and make the best possible case you can for their lynch instead of yours.
If you do this, I will definitely be able to ascertain your alignment. If you refuse to do this, I will peg you as mafia and you will likely be lynched after Onegu.
I have thought about this a lot and this is the best possible play I could come up with. I will post my case on various people after you follow through.
Okay, I can do that. If you want my best possible case, it will take some time though. I intend to post it at the start of the one-hour night action resolution phase, unless you have some objection.
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It's become fairly late here and my rational faculties are starting to falter, so I think I'll just post this now. I may have more to add to this when I get up in the morning, but since I don't know how long before the lynch I will be back here I figured I'd better post this now.
First, some process of elimination.
I don't believe FirmTofu, Hurricane Sponge or hzflank are scum. If any of them are, I think we have probably lost already. I can't imagine they wouldn't be in a position to last-minute switch and secure one last mislynch at some point in the next three days.
Onegu is confirmed scum, and I know I'm town.
This leaves Spicydinosaur, LoneMeow and StiMaDDict as my remaining possibilities for the two extant scum. I am most confident of my scumread on Spicydinosaur.
On Spicydinosaur
A fair bit is pretty much a repeat of my thoughts on him at the end of Night One, maybe refined a little.
Spicy is playing very defensively and reactively.
At the very start of the game Spicy reacted quite strongly to Hurricane saying he was weakly suspicious of him for posting largely fluff:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=9#178
The most notable aspect of his reaction to these comments is that he doesn't seem to want to talk about himself much. Spicy could have just said "Yeah, my filter is kinda fluffy at this point, I'll be working on that"; hell, he could have just ignored it, it's not like he was seriously being accused of being scum. Instead, he becomes agressive and points out problems with their filter while barely acknowledging the weakness in his own. This is quite different to his reaction in a similar situation as a townie in the previous newbie (see the Meta section below.)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#272
I've already gone over the problems with Spicy's case on Tofu in my post at the end of N1, go back and read that. The whole thing about 'voting fyfy over stim to pressure' seems awfully nitpicky, too.
I'm starting to ramble and just cherrypick posts at this point, but before I stop:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=14#273
He says says LoneMeow is 'on his radar' but spends most of the post saying that LoneMeow played like this in his last game and flipped town. Not sure what the point of this post was at all, except to bring to the thread's attention that this is LoneMeow's town meta...
I know some of you don't like meta, but if you want my read - the strongest case I can bring on Spicy - I'm going to use it here. You can ignore this if you like.
+ Show Spoiler [meta] +In Les Mafia, Spicy seemed to react with far more tolerance and understanding to people being suspicious of him. However, I know from my own experience that town meta changes a LOT once you get into a normal game (rather than a newbie) and the situation under which he was pressured was quite different. I think it's a lot more interesting to look at Spicy's play in the last newbie. In particular, I'm interested in this reaction here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=412757¤tpage=24#465On June 06 2013 21:38 Spicydinosaur wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2013 20:19 Skanjab1s wrote:On June 06 2013 11:00 iVLosK! wrote:
Who is the motherfucker who recognized me from OMGUS?
I will find you, mystery motherfucker. I'm the finger down your spine when all the lights are out. I'm the name on all the men's room walls. When I pout, the whole world tries to make me smile. And everyone always wants to know, who... is... that girl? Okay guys, listen up. I can read vloski like a Dr Seuss book. And he is without a doubt town. I've like, never been wrong about him. So, ##vote: SpicydinosaurFor all his posts being about game theory (lynching lurkers, etc.) and none of them having any intention of finding scum. I just did a little theory to get the game going. Wasn't much discussion going on before I went to bed. And if you are going to vote me, at least get my theory right... I said pressure lurkers. Anyways, here are some thoughts. @ Firere345 seems to be only sheeping. He agrees with Umasi's post about iVLosK! and then asks a pointless mod question about a jester. Reading the first page of the thread tells you what roles are possible in this game and jester is NOT on it. So why ask it? A true newbie to this game would probably read that first page up and down multiple times. So far he feels pretty scummy. @ Skanjab1s You throw a vote on me for theory yet your only post is just to throw a vote with nothing else. Town read for now. @ Umasi is my most worrisome read right now. He is generating some discussion but a lot of his posts are full of fluff. Taking a wait and see on him. @Yavanna strongest town read atm. Generates discussion and asks good questions. This is quite similar to the situation in the current game: Spicy has been pressured (in this case, even voted) by someone who hasn't contributed much to the thread so far (this was Skanhab1s' first post of the game, in fact). However, in this case Spicy responds calmly and acknowledges that he hasn't posted much of value so far. In fact, Spicy obtained a tentative townread on Skanjab1s, apparently based solely on the fact that Skanjab1s correctly identified he was posting fluff. I'm not going to pretend that this is some ironclad 100% proof that Spicy is scum. Perhaps he was just in a different mood this game. Who knows? It's just an indication that his mentality this game is different, and that he is more unreasonably reactive to what other people say about him than he has been in the past as a townie.
Spicy's case day 1 does not indicate to me that he'd made a serious analysis of the thread.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417692¤tpage=24#461
Spicy's case, and where his vote ended up Day 1, was on Hurricane Sponge. His case was essentially that Hurricane Sponge had only posted fluff and blue-related stuff, which was in fact true. However, Hurricane had only actually posted during the early part of the game when that was pretty much all that anyone had posted. I don't see how "being AFK while the thread became serious" is grounds for a scumread, and that's basically what this case boiled down to.
I don't think that this case warranted a vote on Hurricane, and I certainly don't think it warranted keeping his vote on Hurricane when the latter returned to the thread and gave his reads, etc.
Spicy's read on Hurricane changed a lot, to reading him as town, when the overall thread sentiment became that Hurricane was town. There's no good reason why a town Spicy wouldn't have his mind changed by the change in Hurricane's play during the night (which definitely happened) so this isn't really alignment indicative.
Spicy hasn't pushed his vote targets as lynch targets for the rest of the thread.
In day one Spicy didn't try to get anyone to vote for Hurricane (besides through his fairly uninspired case). His case and his play was not aggressively trying to get Hurricane lynched - Compare this to the play of, say, Chromatically, who strongly pushed other people to vote for Xzavier.
Same deal for day 2. Spicy basically summed up the arguments made by others for the two wagons, voted for Alakaslam and... returned to pressuring and arguing with FirmTofu? The Onegu/Alakaslam issue was hanging over the thread, it could have gone either way, and which one of them was lynched would likely be pivotal to the outcome of the game, and Spicy decides to go do something else rather than pushing for his read to be lynched? Spicy did argue against one or two of the points raised by FirmTofu, but I get the feeling that this had more to do with sniping at FirmTofu than any actual desire to persuade him (or anyone else) to vote for Alakaslam.
Compare this to hzflank or Hurricane (who both remained kind of undecided and were seriously considering both lynches up until the deadline) or to FirmTofu and myself (who vehemently pushed our respective reads). Either of the above is the reaction of a competent town player to the day 2 situtation. Spicy's reaction was not this.
StiMaDDict and LoneMeow haven't done this either, but they've never had the thread presence to. Spicy has had the thread presence, is more likely to have the skills, and has not done so.
Spicy isn't trying to clarify his more difficult reads.
I don't think I've seen Spicy trying to get answers/reactions/whatever out of any of his null reads - if he has it's very rare in his filter. Townies typically try to get their null reads to express themselves more, or answer questions, so they can improve their reads. Spicy just keeps harassing FirmTofu.
Spicydinosaur is one of the most experienced players in this game - like me, this game is his fourth, and my impression of him as a player is that he is pretty decent. If he were town I would expect to know it by now, in the same way that I know about FT, Hurricane and hzflank. I've felt no such indications from him.
For instance: If Spicy had seriously pushed the Hurricane (day one) or Alakaslam (day two) lynches, instead of just saying enough to justify his vote and then not pushing it any further, that would be a town indication. If Spicy's case day one had been meatier than "Hurricane hasn't posted much of substance" that would be a town indication. If I'd seen a single thought from Spicy this game and thought to myself "Scum wouldn't think to say that", that would be a town indication. I'd expect at least one of these out of a town Spicy - and I've seen none.
A lot of the above applies to StiMaDDict and LoneMeow as well... but I expect more from Spicy.
The other reason I think Spicy is scum is that I only think one of LoneMeow and StiMaDDict is scum, and thus Spicy is likely scum by process of elimination. FirmTofu only asked for my strongest scumread, but if you want to know about these I don't mind saying who and why.
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@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.
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On June 30 2013 00:25 Aquanim wrote:
@LoneMeow and StiMaDDict: I think it would be a good idea for both of you to tell us who your main suspect is as well.
EBWOP: WITH YOUR REASONS.
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On June 30 2013 09:33 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Also, Onegu doesn't have to be a Mafia Power Role. One of his scumbuddies (the real mafia tracker) could have just told Onegu what he knew to help him save himself when he felt under pressure.
Alakaslam saw Onegu visit you, didn't he? You're not dead, so Onegu wasn't carrying scum KP. Therefore, Onegu has a scum PR.
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On June 30 2013 09:59 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Down in the game, sometimes you have to go for a big play. If a LoneMeow - Aqua connection makes sense, and there is plausible Mafia tenancies in both, I wouldn't fault you guys for pulling the trigger. We're getting down to desperation time, and if a red flip on one means a red flip on the other, it's worth considering.
To paraphrase an earlier metaphor, I'm with Tofu now. It's time to buy lotto tickets.
For what it's worth I'd prefer to lynch LoneMeow over StiMaDDict after the way yesterday's lynch turned out.
Reasons:
- LoneMeow's play overall feels a lot more careful than StiMaDDict's
- I think a scum StiMaDDict would have had more of an idea what was going on in the thread when he returned
- StiMaDDict voted Onegu, LoneMeow voted Alakaslam. Pretty simple.
But Aqua, this is a reversal of the read you've had all game? What changed?
Alakaslam flipped town. Also, StiMaDDict's filter quadrupled in size.
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Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night.
hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu.
Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie.
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GG FirmTofu, twas a pleasure to play with you.
##Vote: Onegu
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EPT
