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Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 73

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 01:44 GMT
#1441
On June 29 2013 10:43 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:41 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong here:

Alakaslam flips red then:

Onegu is town
LoneMeow is town
Aquanim is town
Spicy is town
Hurricane is town


Also, I do not find this accurate. You can compare lists once StiM posts his vote.


Once Stim has voted, please tell me where I am going wrong with this.


Gladly. I have to switch computers to get my list. Incoming soon...
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:44 GMT
#1442
hzflank, are you going to switch your vote or keep it on yourself?
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 01:45 GMT
#1443
Vote:##Onegu
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:45 GMT
#1444
On June 29 2013 10:42 FirmTofu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:39 StiMaDDict wrote:
FirmTofu, what do you make of Alak? I know that you believed Onegu was a scum since the end of Day1.

Alak is a 75% town read right now for me. My reasoning is that

1) I had a pre-flip scum read on Onegu (See my case)
2) Alakaslam and Onegu CANNOT be the same alignment.
3) Alakaslam seems to be acting independently of any potential mafia team, which is odd.
4) Alakaslam's claim would be extremely silly to make if he was scum. It unnecessarily places him directly in the spotlight and increases his chances of being lynched to 50% automatically.


I don't think you've actually read what I've written.

3) The mafia team doesn't want to associate themselves with Alakaslam's gambit. If it works, good - if it doesn't, they haven't thrown the game away on it.

4) Alakaslam was very likely to be lynched before his claim. 50% was an improvement on his odds of survival IMO.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:46 GMT
#1445
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 01:47 GMT
#1446
At the very least, my vote will give me some seriously good reads. I am not sure how much it helps you guys, though.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 01:47 GMT
#1447
If Onegu is mislynched (Town):

Aqua is Scum
Alakaslam is Scum
StiM is probably Town
-------------------------------
If Onegu is lynched (Mafia):

Aqua is Scum
Alakaslam is Town
StiM is probably Town
Tofu is Town
------------------------------
If Alakaslam is mislynched (Town):

Aqua is scum
Onegu is scum
StiM is probably Town
LoneMeow is scum
-------------------------------
If Alakaslam is lynched (Mafia):

Aqua is Town
Onegu is Town
--------------------------------

If Alakaslam mislynches:

Mafia team is Aqua, Onegu, LoneMeow
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:47 GMT
#1448
If Hurricane switches his vote, Onegu is lynched. Hurricane is the deciding vote.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1449
Wait, you think I'm scum if Onegu is lynched no matter what he flips? What the fuck?
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1450
Above list contains facts derived primarily from Day 2 analysis. Day 1 analysis can be used to further each of these points, but it is possible to arrive at the final scum team using only Day 2.
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1451
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

Wrong format, hzflank. Host will probably still accept it, but just saying.
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1452
On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?


If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 01:48 GMT
#1453
That may be a typo, I'm having to post in a rush, due to deadline.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 01:49 GMT
#1454
##Vote:Onegu
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:49 GMT
#1455
On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?


If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.

WHAT?

SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE

WTF
FirmTofu
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1956 Posts
June 29 2013 01:50 GMT
#1456
I disagree with your Alakaslam mislynch prediction. I think it would be
SpicyDinosaur
LoneMeow
Onegu
I lie a lot when I'm town. I never lie when I'm scum.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:51 GMT
#1457
Seriously, no matter which of them is scum, the scum probably don't want to have to commit 100% to their gambit.
hzflank
Profile Joined August 2011
United Kingdom2991 Posts
June 29 2013 01:51 GMT
#1458
On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?


If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.

WHAT?

SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE

WTF


Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case.

The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
June 29 2013 01:52 GMT
#1459
On June 29 2013 10:51 hzflank wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:
On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu

You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?


If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.

WHAT?

SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE

WTF


Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case.

The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote.

LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST

He just decided to vote again, god knows why
Hurricane Sponge
Profile Joined March 2010
868 Posts
June 29 2013 01:53 GMT
#1460
Reasons for Aqua being Scum if Onegu flips mafia:

Aqua tried to derail the Onegu train early, and defended him even before the claims


I can't remember my reasoning for putting the second part. Could be a typo, but I was sure there was a reason. The list was made at 5am. Again, posting in a rush.

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