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On June 29 2013 09:18 StiMaDDict wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 09:13 Aquanim wrote:
Oh, and even if Hurricane doesn't know where he visited, that does not contradict Onegu's claim in any way. In fact, I don't think it affects its likelihood at all. One way or another, Onegu correctly knows where Hurricane visited. (Scum would not have fakeclaimed seeing Hurricane visit somewhere he didn't on the offchance he might be Nosy Neighbour and not know.)
I agree that unless it is necessary to decide the lynch one way or another there is no need for Hurricane to claim. Explain this to me? I thought Alak claimed Onegu visited Hurricane and that he himself visited Alak. Since we are lynching Alak, I'm assuming that he is most likely telling a lie, therefore it is correct that Onegu visited Alak. How is it that Onegu knows where Hurricane visited? Still trying to catch up. What am I missing?
Onegu has claimed Watcher. He claims to have watched Alakaslam, and to have seen Hurricane visit Alakaslam.
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Question:
The hypothesis that Alakaslam is town appears to largely rest on the fact that he appeared to be confused as to the ramifications of his claim (regarding whether it confirmed Onegu and him as town).
If Alakaslam is the scum tracker, could he have thought (by the same logic as whatever he used above) that his claim made them both (look) town?
There are some serious logical problems with the latter... but then again there are serious logical problems with every explanation of Alakaslam's actions.
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On June 29 2013 10:35 hzflank wrote:
@Aquanim:
So when Onegu flips red, who else is scum?
Onegu flipping red is not a situation I've thought much about the ramifications of. I'd have to think more about association cases, but basically whichever of these two flips red I think most to all of the scumteam is in {Spicy, LoneMeow, StiM}.
Spicy's desire to talk about stuff that's not relevant to today's lynch does not sit well with me.
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On June 29 2013 10:36 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP, I meant when:
Alakaslam flips red: Who else is scum?
Oh right :/
Still the same answer though. Simply through having townreads on everyone else, Spicy, LoneMeow or StiMaDDict.
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@hzflank:
I'd really prefer if you put your vote down to prevent last-minute shenanigans.
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On June 29 2013 10:42 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 10:39 StiMaDDict wrote:
FirmTofu, what do you make of Alak? I know that you believed Onegu was a scum since the end of Day1. Alak is a 75% town read right now for me. My reasoning is that 1) I had a pre-flip scum read on Onegu (See my case) 2) Alakaslam and Onegu CANNOT be the same alignment. 3) Alakaslam seems to be acting independently of any potential mafia team, which is odd. 4) Alakaslam's claim would be extremely silly to make if he was scum. It unnecessarily places him directly in the spotlight and increases his chances of being lynched to 50% automatically.
I don't think you've actually read what I've written.
3) The mafia team doesn't want to associate themselves with Alakaslam's gambit. If it works, good - if it doesn't, they haven't thrown the game away on it.
4) Alakaslam was very likely to be lynched before his claim. 50% was an improvement on his odds of survival IMO.
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On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu
You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind?
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Wait, you think I'm scum if Onegu is lynched no matter what he flips? What the fuck?
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On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind? If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam.
WHAT?
SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE
WTF
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Seriously, no matter which of them is scum, the scum probably don't want to have to commit 100% to their gambit.
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On June 29 2013 10:51 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind? If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam. WHAT?SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE WTF Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case. The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote.
LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST
He just decided to vote again, god knows why
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On June 29 2013 10:53 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 10:52 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:51 hzflank wrote:On June 29 2013 10:49 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:48 hzflank wrote:On June 29 2013 10:46 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 10:45 hzflank wrote:
Vote:##Onegu You were voting for Alakaslam before. What changed your mind? If Alakaslam is scum then the only possible 3 man scum team is Alaka, Firm and Stim. If I can convince you that I am town then we win. Therefore, we have nothing to lose by mislynching Onegu, but a lot to lose by mislynching Alakaslam. WHAT?SCUM WON'T NECESSARILY ALL BE VOTING FOR THE TOWNIE HERE WTF Look at when the votes went down. LoneMeow dropped the important 5th vote. You made the important case. The read on Hurricane is independent of is vote. LoneMeow voted for Alakaslam FIRST He just decided to vote again, god knows why He voted before the claims, then unvoted when the claims occurred. Then voted again later.
He unvoted, did he? Guess I missed that.
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On June 29 2013 11:03 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
Well played, Aqua. Too bad you and Onegu had to die now for that.
A mislynch always sucks, but Slam was radio silent this whole time. He mentioned himself he was mentally checked out of this game, so as long as the rest of town stays motivated going forward, we'll win this.
This may be pretty hard for you to believe, but I got a town role PM.
Just because I was apparently completely wrong in my read doesn't mean my play this game has been scummy.
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On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim
I want your new reads. Please explain why as well.
I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at:
Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1.
StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack
LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good.
Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure.
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On June 29 2013 11:16 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 11:10 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 11:06 FirmTofu wrote:
@Aquanim
I want your new reads. Please explain why as well. I'll have to think about association with Onegu and that might take a while, but for now this is where I'm at: Spicy: didn't commit hard to either lynch today. Still got no reasons to think he's town. Nothing much has really changed about Spicy since my read at the end of Night 1. StiMaDDict: still hasn't done jack LoneMeow: hasn't done much of anything, and vote for Alakaslam now doesn't look real good. Still pretty sure everyone else (besides Onegu, obviously) is town but I suppose I'd better take another look at everyone to be sure. StiM cast a crucial vote against Onegu. If you're still suspecting him, you're obviously not analyzing from a pro-town perspective.
When StiM voted Onegu, he was still two voteswitches away from being lynched, which at that time looked pretty unlikely.
It's a point in StiM's favour but not a conclusive one.
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On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...)
The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win.
If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose.
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On June 29 2013 11:21 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 29 2013 11:20 Aquanim wrote:On June 29 2013 11:19 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
If the remaining townies don't see that Aqua is scum, we deserve to lose. (Not that we already don't deserve to lose with the quality posting content of StiM, Xzavier and Alakaslam on our side...)
The mafia play here is to kill me tonight (since I'm probably the only one who can convince Tofu of anything at this point), resulting in a split vote on Day 4 and a mafia win. If the remaining townies can't tell that I'm town we're going to lose. Then why did you push so hard to lynch Alakaslam? You must of played out endgame scenarios.
Because I thought he was scum and that if we lynched Onegu we would essentially be in the position we're in now.
Look back at my arguments that Alakaslam (and Xzavier, for that matter) was scum and decide for yourself if a townie or a scum made those arguments, aped the spotlight and pushed them hard. I sincerely believed that both of them would flip scum, and hoping that you can see that is the only defence I can make for my play.
If you have any questions as to my motivations and my reasons - ask them. I have nothing to hide.
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On June 29 2013 11:29 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 22:35 Aquanim wrote:
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
If you have been roleblocked (you will have been notified by a PM from the host), claim in the thread in your next post that you have been roleblocked. This is NOT a claim that you have a role to be blocked. A player with no powers may also be blocked. This information is far more valuable to the town than it is to mafia when revealed. If you doubt this, check any recent normal game with roleblock/jailkeeper roles. (It just occured to me that no-one has said this yet, and perhaps there's someone who doesn't know.) We all let this slip by. Mafia want to know if they're contending with a JK.
<facepalm>
Claiming roleblocks is standard play in every TL mafia game. Check with your coach.
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Is this summary accomplishing anything Hurricane, other than shitting up the thread?
Make a case explaining why these things make me scum and I'll tell you why I did them as a townie.
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EPT
