EPT/in
##summon Chezinu
Catch 22 Mafia
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
/in ##summon Chezinu | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On June 21 2013 13:49 Hapahauli wrote: In all seriousness, I do want to policy lynch Oats. Every game I've played with him, he's contributed to a toxic town atmosphere by tunneling obv-townies beyond the point of reason. I'm all for killing him until I find an actual scum-read. I'm getting town vibes from Oats. He's not begging to be sheeped yet, which from my recent game on OMGUS was the trigger that made me think about his play and ended up with me getting a scum read on him day 1. He did that in Carnival, too, (later in the game) where he was town, but he ended up flipping cop. What I think this means about him is that when he has more information (be it cop or scum), he is much more confident in his pushes even if they are nonsensical. I'm not getting that confidence vibe from Oats here. What you said is mostly correct, however. He is a good policy lynch if it comes down to one. He mucks up the thread with his random interjections. His tunnels can be beyond paranoid. I don't see a reason to think he's mafia. As far as the other stuff in the thread is concerned, the only thing nobody has touched on yet is that Coag popped in just to vote for Marv and then went radio silent. Very back-seat driver. I can't remember any games I've played with him so I want to take a quick look at his older games for the sake of establishing a baseline of expectations. Coag, what do you think about Oats and my thoughts regarding him? Are you going to hit-and-run style post all game? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 14:02 Oatsmaster wrote: #unvote Dont hipster vote cora. DP and hapa are scum. Please don't be a kushmasta | ||
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ObviousOne
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Cora was so blatant about his icebreaker he even "crumbed it" in his modified song lyrics. If you took his push on Marv seriously you should look at the things that it accomplished: 1. He got conversation in the thread started. 2. He got a vote out of Coag that, while weak in the explanation department, gave us information about Coag. 3. He drew you out into a tunnel that has divulged a lot of information about you 4. Set the stage for a confrontational and questioning town atmosphere 5. Established his towniness all within like 6 pages of the game. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 14:18 Coagulation wrote: oats is a good lynch but I rather lynch marv just because i have nothing to go on yet and of all the people in the game marv is the most amusing to watch die. If scum pop up on my radar between now and then things might change but for now im going to get more bang for my vote with a marv lynch. I'm wondering which flavor of Marv is going to show up. In Red Team's Prize we were both town and he had a zero-fucks-given attitude about his own life and it seemed like it took a lot of effort to drag information out of him when he was content to sit in the game as almost a passive observer even when he was under pressure. Thanks for clarifying your position on that. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 14:23 Oatsmaster wrote: OO. I was asking why you thought DP and Hapa was town. Haven't finished my first post of coffee. How am I supposed to be better at figuring out DP as town or scum when his scum play is being lauded in the thread as TL Mafia's gift to scum teams? Hapa looks like he may be experimenting with something early game or he's just reaction fishing in which case he's gotten a reaction out of you. They're drawing attention to themselves, that's all I need to know right now a few hours into the game. I'll tell you exactly what I'm thinking about right now because it's win/win to share it, either mafia will continue to do these things or they will post more in the thread by which we can find the inconsistencies. Mafia has very little reason to actively engage in discussion right now, especially if people are all pointing fingers at each other in the event that everyone posting right now is town. They would probably be content to let town tear itself apart and may not even post. People who are not posting by the end of 24 hours (and I don't mean a handful of one-liners and jokes) climb to the top of my kill-with-fire list. If all of town is talking, this list shortens greatly, and corners the scum into this category. Consider early participation to be town points for day 1. This will also effectively take out the town-aligned anti-town elements in the same vein, if townies aren't sharing their thoughts then they are playing for scum and I'd lynch them just the same to make solving the game easier down the line. (link)Did you read my post in Smurf Mini? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 14:48 yamato77 wrote: Sloosh and Sylencia are people to ignore until later in the game. Sloosh is obvious as town and absolutely lurk-fucking-tastic as mafia. No need to concern myself when time will tell with him. Sylencia might be a coinflip either way, to be honest, so I ignore him until he flips or something. OO's townread of Oats is ballsy at that point. I don't expect a scum OO to jump into the game calling someone under fire town. Coag is worth worrying about because I have no idea how he plays, but he's obviously here, reading the thread, just not very active except when mentioned. My townread on Oats is based on what I feel is a gift I have developed through past games. It used to be when I played with Oats I would wait a day before deciding to call him town or scum, delaying reading his filter or even really paying much attention to him because, well, 'madness'. Then we ended up in a game together on OMGUS and I immediately had a scum read on him (that turned out 100% correct) and so far up to that point he had exhibited none of that swagger or confidence I got out of his posting style and choice of words there. The funny thing is that I was the ONLY person who was able to do that and while I was NOT able to describe it in a way that would let people see my side of things and help me lynch him, I don't get any of the same vibes here that I did there. On June 21 2013 15:20 DarthPunk wrote: I just don't get how someone could spend a whole paragraph explaining how someone is town and then in the very next sentence be willing to policy lynch that same person. That being said, apparently saying I would policy lynch a madman who has a history of shitting up threads and misdirecting town is scummy? Hokay. If you say so. Unless you weren't calling it scummy and asking for a response, in which case where is the question? For your convenience I have already answered it at the start of this paragraph. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 15:41 DarthPunk wrote: They are both wait and see people like every game. GK has the ability to completely stomp a scum team, but takes a long while to get going and has recently tended to get bogged down in defending himself rather than catching scum. Nothing really alignment indicative either way at this point to be honest. But when GK get's rolling it should be pretty clear if he is town or not. Scum GK just never gets rolling. Hapa is pretty useless as scum and his cases aren't as good as they are as town. Fairly obvious, he hasn't done anything I have really loved yet. But I am confident he will either be really obv town or be fairly obvious scum later. Hapa is leaning town though because he was upset people didn't ask him about his read on you. That sort of shit screams townie to me. At the moment obvious is like totally ignoring me calling him scummy. Which is weird. Like he flamed me hard in our last game. And his first post where he was willing to policy lynch his town read is scummy as shit. Yamato needs to do something that isn't backflipping off his scum reads that were never scum reads or whatever the fuck he was doing. I know yamato can be valuable as town. So if he isn;' I will push for his lynch. Wow. That's a lot of wait and see. As far as flaming you, I wasn't even here, give it some time. You'll just have to wait and see. LOL ZING | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 21 2013 15:52 cDgCorazon wrote: Well there needs to be an actual reason for the change of heart. If you don't have anything useful to say, why say all of this stupid shit? You're just shitting up the thread if that is the case. This guy gets it. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 00:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also OO, gimme at least 12 scumreads with reasoning asap. I'm starting to have an urge to lynch you because you are not saying shit. DAYUM SON. EVERYONE SCUM? GG | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 00:58 marvellosity wrote: OO stop posting random-ass comments from 1.5 days ago, it's astonishingly unhelpful. Do you honestly think those things were unhelpful in any way, or are you just being petulant because you expect more of me? So you don't want to know what I'm thinking? Do you really think I'm gonna quote and respond to something on every page of the game as I catch up? Those are things that happened NOT LONG AFTER I WAS GONE and are in some way pertinent to me (something that looks like a case but doesn't call me scum, and something I would consider a case on DP and grounds to call him scum). So you can like, deal with it 'cause it's already done. No taksie-backsies. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 01:35 Oatsmaster wrote: cause he doesnt want to derail lynch train on OO which you guys successfully did. Well done. Notice OO is gone. I just got told to stop posting while catching up, you want me to be posting while I catch up, which is it? | ||
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ObviousOne
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ShiaoPi - single-minded purpose of getting under GK's skin. The basis for this seems to be GK's attack on Oats for his playstyle. Is there some kind of back story to this antagonism that I'm not aware of? I don't see any other scum reads he wants to pursue. Just GK and I don't really agree that GK calling Oats scummy for being Oats is scummy, just wrong. Reminds me of how I felt in LXI when Shiao was scum (where he was playing from behind, so to speak) and didn't open the scope of his scum reads to more than a couple of people at a time (25 player game) Ange777 - has been asking a ton of questions but I don't see a consistent track of thought or an angle at finding scum, just talking about lurkers and some commentary. Not pushing for anything. I expect a great deal more from her but I'm willing to extend the BOTD today given I want to lynch the other two first. ##Vote DarthPunk | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 02:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oats i'm going to wait for OO/yamato/Hapa to answer me. I think Hapa lynch is not going to happen as people are retarded and can't see why he is scum. I don't know who i am going to vote for (yamato/OO), depends on if they come back and if they do, what are their answers. I don't see a question. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 02:39 Coagulation wrote: lawl @ secret vote. IF IN DOUBT LYNCH MARV I SAY. I have no doubt. Help me lynch DP. Let's fucking get this done properly. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 02:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: I don't want to lynch OO. Still not seeing a question. Did you not have one? When you said you were waiting for a response, did you mean you were waiting for me to come back / post? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 02:46 yamato77 wrote: Ask me a legitimate question and I'll answer you. If you think Sloosh is scum, give a reason rather than having me argue against a phantom idea. Without fail, I have always thought sloosh is scum every game because of his activity. I'm trying to not hold that against him this time and gauge him on the way he does participate. So far he's identified a town read in Marv, is latching on and is going to look into the same things, and has stated intent to improve his performance. He got more done in a handful of posts while he was here than I did for the entire first half of the cycle. If anyone is unwilling to lynch me there should be no reason they want to lynch sloosh, either. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 02:53 yamato77 wrote: So me pointing at DP early in the game when everyone thought he was town is only attacking people who are in the spotlight? What about questioning Hapa when most people had the impression, at that time, that he was town? You argument holds no water. Anything I did pregame was in jest. Did Coag seriously pregame meta-game you? LOL coagplz | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: Explain to me how Sloosh is making any sense? Yamato got it for me | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:07 yamato77 wrote: That does seem like he's not trying particularly hard to do these things. In my experience, town OO would be reading closer than that. If we're not lynching DP, I'll lynch OO. What did I misread? Can I blame it on my iPod and the glare of the sun? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: You didn't misread anything, you just claimed scum. Oh. Okay, sounds good. Carry on. No. Wait. The opposite of that. Explain. | ||
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On June 23 2013 03:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Ehh.. Sloosh viewed you as scum as you asked some random person (Goag) about Oats. You are perfectly fine with that because you think it's true as you said to me. I implied I think it's a valid viewpoint for sloosh to see me as scum and that I do not see sloosh as scum because he is being townier than I am. Does that make sense? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:16 raynpelikoneet wrote: How can Sloosh be townier than you in your PoV? 'Cause I was literally gone for like 30 hours and had only handful of posts to my name of any value, whereas sloosh has been doing the figuring out of the game and made some rational posts that a) make me think he's not scum because he's not lurking like a motherfucker and b) sounds genuinely interested in figuring out the game despite his schedule. You can't say those things about my play prior to my return -- thus he is more townie than I. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah but in this case he is believing what Sloosh says, and he should not be sure if Sloosh is town or not, and he certainly should not be okay with Sloosh calling him scum if he is town. How are you equating that I believe what sloosh is saying with my opinion on his level of effort and engagement in the thread? Do you not see how that is incorrect? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:27 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why are you okay with Sloosh calling you scum if you are town? Especially considering that he is one of the lurkers. BECAUSE I WAS A LURKER TOO AND IT MAKES SENSE AT THE TIME HE WROTE IT OMG | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 03:25 Coagulation wrote: Marv so far has completely failed to put any pressure at all on me. He seems content with leaving me fucking off calling him scum like herpderp because he knows its not gonna gain traction. Instead hes focused on the bigger players in the game cause he doesnt see me as a threat.. town marv wouldnt be so passive about me IMO. Marv's town play seems to be trending towards more passive of late, mostly I think it began with RTP where he was really out-of-character disengaged with the thread (even went as far as to semi-martyr himself). You saw this yourself in the game we played on OMGUS together. Somewhere it was either self-described or meta described by someone else that scum-Marv takes leadership over the town, unless my memory is wrong. I can't source it for you, sorry. You seem to be trying to draw his attention and he's not responding to it. Is there a reason you want to vote for Marv other than funsies that makes sense in the context of this game? Why does Marv ignoring you in the greater scheme of things make him scummy and not simply dismissive until he finds something you write scummy? | ||
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ObviousOne
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Whose reads are withheld you have seen though My greatest desire To lynch him with fire Town vic'try for us, for the people /bow | ||
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On June 23 2013 03:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yes it seems like that to me. Also DP is leading on OO and while i think it is a bad decision for scum!OO to go after DP that's not something 100% guaranteed. I also think OO scumslipped and that makes me believe he is scum and DP is town. Fuck. Where is Blazinghand? Scumslips don't exist. You are proposing that I, as scum, agree with sloosh that I am scum (the noun, not the adjective) and that it is a scum slip. Then I explain my thought process to you and you are like "nah fuck it, scumslip"? What the actual fuck, Rayn? | ||
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On June 23 2013 04:07 yamato77 wrote: Could still be scum, would rather lynch DP. Seriously, he's actually demonstrably mafia. I'm not interested in switching, I just want to talk about Shiao because he's my #2 right now and it's just you and me right now I guess until Hapa is done reading. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 05:03 Hapahauli wrote: Surely you can eat pizza and play mafia concurrently. Not hard. I was in a car and I do not have a smart phone. Even if I did, http://www.dmv.ny.gov/cellphone.htm On June 23 2013 05:01 Hapahauli wrote: Actually hell. OO, where did you run off to? You apparently have behavioral reasons to think DP is scum. Explain them to me. DP is a smart feller, which I can admit despite our periodic antagonism towards each other from our history of games over the past 9 months). The fact that he construed my willingness to vote for what I consider to be an anti-town element (Oats) when I have a town read on that player (Oats) leads me to believe he blew what I wrote out of proportion to get a feel for thread sentiment in lynching me. A policy lynch doesn't work like that, and he knows it. I think it's pretty well established that I am in favor of policy lynching liabilities to town if only to progressively promote an atmosphere where mafia can't hide by doing stupid things or without explaining their own motivations (linked you to it in a previous post where I wrote it in a post as PTroughton2 in the post-game for smurf). I wasn't be around to call him out for it, and he didn't actively pursue it, either. Think about that last qualifier for a moment in the realm of thinking of DP. He did not pursue his own scum read on me or try to persuade people to vote for me. He left it hanging for someone else to potentially take the reigns on. What motivation does DP have to pronounce a scum read and then not follow up on it? It doesn't feel right given his ego-driven high power play. So he doesn't want to lead the mislynch, then? Also, I can't believe I missed this, this is gold. On June 21 2013 14:26 DarthPunk wrote: Obviously, or why would I say it? I didn't like how he just came into the thread with a town read on fucking scummy oates with all this reasoning. Seemed contrived to me. Like his first post is this big thought out town read on the guy shitting up the thread. That kush thing pissed me off too. So what is his stance on Oats? Not sure, it isn't clear. He interacts with Oats, he calls Oats' play scummy, but where's the vote? Where's the push to lynch if Oats is scummy to him? It's fucking ABSENT. The same with me. Why is he not leading lynches? Massive ego + not leading lynches = scum hiding in plain sight. Oh, and DP, if Kush was good then I would have lost that game. /dunked | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 06:40 marvellosity wrote: Obvious, I did have a look into DP about the things you mentioned. Couple of things 1) the oats thing was early enough that i think it's reasonable enough that he didn't pursue it 2) he did pursue/talk about you quite a bit on page 3/4 of your filter 3) I think you have a pretty valid point about the policy lynch thing. You made it abundantly clear it would be a policy lynch and what the policy was, even if you were leaning town on Oats. I'm not exactly sure where I lean on it because I *do* think it's pretty dumb to want to policy lynch you're leaning town on, and I can understand anyone being upset about that, but on the other hand I don't think DP should have been *that* incredulous. hrmdehrm :x Let's say for the sake of playing Devil's Advocate that I'm wrong about DP and that your view makes the most sense: the period when I was around was, what, 6-9 hours into the game? That means that it was pretty early in the game to be making hard scum stances which does make some sense. Not everyone had checked in, middle of the night for probably half of the players in the game, etc. That means that his vote on me devolves into a policy lynch. Specifically, his evidence is that I fucked off (that I was not here is undeniable and I won't even contest it). What makes his POLICY lynch better than mine? On June 23 2013 00:28 DarthPunk wrote: --snip-- At the moment the glaring obvious scum is... obvious. (lol) He makes a shitty post, then fucks off and doesn't explain or do anything. In his last game I played with him he was town and when i accused him day one he went ballistic and OMGUS'd me for ever. this game he ignores me calling him out and then disappears after bitching about lukers. --snip-- All in all we should lynch Obvious though. Sheep me plz Perhaps DP didn't take into consideration that I didn't want a repeat of Carnival N0 where I tunneled the hell out of him for something that I was stupid about (the miller claim) knowing full well that if I get into it with him it's probably going to shit up the thread. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 06:48 marvellosity wrote: No, that's not a policy lynch. At least not in my eyes. Lurker lynch is not a policy lynch? Just asking because that's how I see his final push on me with this stuff. Maybe you see it differently? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 06:42 Ange777 wrote: Oh ok, so I already read them. I thought they had posted something new I should consider before re-evaluating my reads on them. If the lynch is between the two of them, I'd rather lynch goodkarma than ShiaoPi. I mentioned earlier that I can see ShiaoPi's posting coming from a town ShiaoPi, while I don't have a townie vibe coming from goodkarma. But actually I would like to lynch DarthPunk more (if there isn't anything mind-changing in the next ten pages). If I recall correctly I called him out for not actively going for his scumreads before anyone else mentioned it and I haven't seen anything worthy of a townie DarthPunk yet. Just some angry DarthPunk but I think town DarthPunk can do better than that. I don't recall having any experience with town Shiao, can you clarify what you mean when comparing the two? I have Shiao as a candidate for what looked like an intentionally over-antagonistic approach towards GK. Is that characteristic of a town Shiao, if you know of Shiao's play? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 07:16 Ange777 wrote: I think I've only obsed/co-hosted a few games where ShiaoPi played so I didn't play with him in a game before. By comparing them I meant that if I had to chose between one of these two players to lynch today I would prefer to lynch goodkarma instead of ShiaoPi. What makes you think his posting style is over-antagonistic? I didn't get that feeling. I'm reading the conversation through GK's filter and it looks like they're both doing the "whateva whateva I do what I want" thing at each other. I wasn't sure if there was some kind of grudge backstory to this. Shiao has been solely focused on GK, and GK has been focused on Oats and Shiao. On June 22 2013 00:52 goodkarma wrote: @Shao: Explain to me how picking to attack me on what thread consensus has already determined to be a bad discussion point isn't in fact attacking an "easy target"? And while you're at it please tell me if that means I should assume you're scum? I will hold discussion on whatever the fuck I feel is relevant to finding scum. I really don't care if you find who I discuss "easy," and if you were to do any legwork at all you'd find I frequently look into people you might consider "easy" on day one. To me, day one is all about generating discussion and a pro-town atmosphere. To that end, I constantly look at lurkers (something I haven't done this game all that much) and have what you might consider "weaker" discussion points about more active people just to get a better idea of where their alignment stands. I was mostly interested in this singular point on Oatsmaster: Why would he so eagerly jump his suspicions onto Yamato while ignoring his earlier reads? That was it. I actually do like his explanations, although I disagree with them, on DP and Hapa. At least I can visualize how a town Oats could come to such conclusions. The thing with his play this game is that it's dramatically different than what I saw of his townplay last game, and I'm still working to make sense of it. On June 22 2013 00:56 ShiaoPi wrote: @gk: you can assume that i am scum if that pleases you, I dont really care?! I don't see any difference in oats' play between here and I swear so I have him pretty firmly in town at the moment. Your case just looks like cooking up stuff, which is especially easy on oats since he is inconsistent and likes to switch his focus around a fair amount. tell me about dramatically differences in oats play. On June 22 2013 02:17 goodkarma wrote: What do you think of Marv btw Shao? On June 22 2013 02:17 goodkarma wrote: In B4 null. This just feels really out-there in terms of interaction. The antagonism feels like it's long term, since I don't really see a reason for it to have sprouted up in the thread. I could be wrong, though, and probably am. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 07:24 marvellosity wrote: That might be the towniest thing gk has done :x The "fuck off, I'm doing my thang", thang? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 07:35 Ange777 wrote: @Obvious: I actually see more hostility in goodkarma's posts than ShiaoPi's. Do you have past experiences playing with an antagonistic goodkarma or why do you only suspect ShiaoPi for this style of posting? It's not really the style that's got me, on its own. It's the way they've been battling at each other for so long, particularly at the expense of other reads. Neither is here to clarify why it is that they're so seemingly hostile towards one another. I read a few pages of Les Mafia, thought not very much TBH, and GK's attitude feels similar to that game when he was under suspicion there so it could be just a baseline GK-thing. Maybe this isn't a 1:1 relationship but that Shiao is just responding in kind. Like I said, I just wanted to know if they had some kind of history so I'll have to hear it from one of them, I guess. I thought maybe you had some extra knowledge but yours sounds about as limited as my own. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 23 2013 07:50 Ange777 wrote: Are you implicating that you want to lynch one of hapa or marv next time or are you referring to DarthPunk/goodkarma? LOL I was just thinking this same thing. | ||
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ObviousOne
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ObviousOne
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On March 11 2013 08:14 yamato77 wrote: Watch this. Pro GF snipe right here. On June 16 2012 17:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: After the game I'll tell you what you should have done differently supersoft. ##Shoot: Supersoft Ya'll ready for a pro gf snipe? Fuck it took too long to find that. Now it's not as timely/funny. | ||
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ObviousOne
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Finally established a tentative town read on Coag. Helped get DP lynched without a second thought (except all things Marv, but that's an issue outside the scope of the game purposes perhaps). This one made me laughter out loud: + Show Spoiler [lol] + On June 23 2013 09:08 Coagulation wrote: Well marv next time maybe you should say something like "btw coag I will be ignoring you because I dont like you anymore" instead of just acting all awkward about shit and pussy footing around the issue and coming off as super scummy to me. I cant be expected to keep track of all the people that I butt hurt on a game to game basis. or wait.... maybe I can. OK. Town read on Oats stands until I get the chance to look at some of his scum games here on TL to see if maybe I've tricked myself into misreading him. I'll look it up tonight. Shiao still on my scum radar. Need to review GK as he has come back, that's points in his favor already. Shiao disappeared in our last game together where he was scum and then did the play-from-behind thing which I absolutely will not accept this time. I don't think they are scum together, but I do think one of them is scum, and it's most likely Shiao. | ||
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TY I'll use that as well. | ||
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ObviousOne
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Scum games Doctor Who + Ego Mini: - Seriously complains a lot - More complaining (easy to read in a whining tone) - Weak/simple case and a vote, which he lets go soon in order to, - Find a strong town read and sheeps them mirroring their reasoning Oats in this game: - Everything is very matter of fact - Not giving a single iota of a fuck - Doesn't even bother with big cases or major reasons half the time - Attacks / interrogates strong townie presences | ||
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ObviousOne
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Town oats is indecisive as fuck, lost, dazed and confused. This oats was not, he was so focused on me (and to you guys I'm sure it looked like OMGUS) but I felt it within my bowels and couldn't express it properly without further (nevermind that I wasn't even around enough to do something like that, I missed the deadline for voting by sleeping through it). Scum oats pretends to be "random" that looks calculated, town oats operates by true random that looks like a fucking lunatic. When you learn how to spot the difference, you'll have a pretty good thermometer for him. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 24 2013 08:32 Hapahauli wrote: I'm inclined to think that Rayn's super-defense of Oats last night makes Oats town. Rayn just seems waaaay too sure about it, and hard defending a scum-buddy like that is very psychologically difficult. That's really all I drew of relevancy from Rayn's filter on one quick readthrough. He does talk about reads on Shiao, GK, and others, but never really does anything committal that would say anything about their allignments. I'd like to hear other's thoughts on it. Don't you mean my hard defense of Oatsmaster? | ||
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ObviousOne
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I'll check out Oats' filter after this episode of Fringe. Just based on what you've highlighted in that post and from what we can guess regarding the red flip, which explains the implied suspicion of Oats from DP's direction. While it's easy to attribute Oats -> DP suspicion as cursory or distancing, from memory it was more like Oats was obsessed with his own scum read in Yamato. Plus you're talking about a technique that I don't necessarily give Oats the credit for being able to pull off gracefully (which could mean he did it poorly as mafia or it's just how things look to the observer which I believe to be the case). I see it more as just happenstance, not as a planned thing. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 24 2013 08:57 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah dude, I agree with you. Oats is town. You don't have to preach to the choir. AMEN BROTHER | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 00:48 Oatsmaster wrote: sloosh why do I wanna lynch you again? Why.... . Everyone had rayn as town except Coag. So thats not really a point in favor of Adam's townieness. AHHH I DONT KNOW. Am i crazy for seeing something no one else sees? Just getting up, I presume it's all in the last couple pages your filter? I need coffee first. Preliminary thoughts: To me it looked like he was setting up suspicion on Adam for a future mislynch but he went about it kind of awkwardly. Adam was in the thread for barely 24 hours when Rayn wrote his last post on him. I can't rationalize Rayn getting a replacement partner and starting shit on him instead of giving his partner time to establish town presence. It seems like a stretch to say that Rayn's behavior somehow implicates Adam as mafia. Independently of Rayn, Adam was transparent about his thoughts even when he didn't have solid scum reads and I got the impression he was (and still is) genuinely interested in solving the game. Rayn bussing his teammate like that doesn't make sense when there was very little impetus of guilt on Adam's slot. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 01:14 Oatsmaster wrote: Rayn's interaction with Adam is alignment neutral. How in the world can you say he is interested in solving the game when he has no scumreads AND DOESNT FUCKING DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. Just keeps on going, nope, nope, nope. With no obvious effort put in to try and find them. what the fuck OO. Hapa read: Town On June 23 2013 22:25 Adam4167 wrote: It goes into consideration, but I take their filters in as a whole. I've just been privileged to play in a town that imploded after pushing 2 scum on day 1, due to the faulty logic "he wasn't on the scum lynch D1, therefore scummy" so i'm hesitant to make that call again here when I see objectively townie play from them, at least in my opinion. If either Marv or Hapa were scum with DP, they'd have rolled over this town and we'd have lynched OO for sure. Their thread control would have been enormous. No way they'd have let him get lynched if he was their teammate. Coag read: Town On June 24 2013 08:27 Adam4167 wrote: *hi-five* Coag. You saved me a day of talking to a brick wall. Oats read: Wants you dead On June 24 2013 11:10 Adam4167 wrote: I'm at the point where id be happy to watch him hang regardless of his alignment. Anti-town? sure. Doesn't make it any less true. ShiaoPi read: Probably town On June 24 2013 15:24 Adam4167 wrote: Mhmm, this is exactly what I was afraid of. I do not think a scum ShiaoPi would be giving me a town read of right here. Nor was I expecting GK to do it when he did, if he were actually scum. Something fucking fishy going on this game. Non-DP Voters: ShiaoPi, Potential suspects remaining: Do you see why he wants to lynch you, Oats? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 01:45 Oatsmaster wrote: Think about it, OO, why has he not said the elimination reason, and instead, said its cause he cant be bothered with reading me and its better to kill me now than for me to lose lylo. Quick question then, have you played many games together with Adam? Is his antagonistic nature and desire to kill you "because you're bad" indicative of him being less tolerant of it because of how Smurf ended or because he's not interested in figuring out your alignment as mafia? I can see the case for it being either one, but if you can elaborate on any history you have with him (prior to Smurf) that would point to reasons why this would be out of character for him that would be helpful. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 01:49 ObviousOne wrote: Quick question then, have you played many games together with Adam? Is his antagonistic nature and desire to kill you "because you're bad" indicative of him being less tolerant of it because of how Smurf ended or because he's not interested in figuring out your alignment as mafia? I can see the case for it being either one, but if you can elaborate on any history you have with him (prior to Smurf) that would point to reasons why this would be out of character for him that would be helpful. (I say prior to smurf as in when the game happened, not as in you played in it, just for clarification) | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 01:52 Oatsmaster wrote: A lot of games, maybe 4-5? Most of the games, hes not been really active, just posting once in a while and occansional insightful things. But oh man, duel mini. He played super well, found lots of scum, was thread leader. Good stuff. Not seeing any of that here. I dont recall adam as much of a policy lyncher and his lynch is definitely couched as a policy lynch. Okay, I think I see where you're getting at with Adam. His explanation for not scum hunting as aggressively as you saw him do in Duel Mini allegedly has to do with what he is declaring as the "quality of the scum team" plus his confidence in his reads this game compared to that one. That means that he should be ultra-qualifying about his town reads if he's going to scum hunt by process of elimination and from what I'm seeing, his town reads aren't totally comprehensive. If the scum team is so high caliber, then by his own admission he should be thoroughly mapping his thought processes on and interacting with the players who are likely to be playing this high-caliber scum game. I don't see a short list of players from him who fit this nebulous concept. Adam, how do you match this concept of a high-level scum game to your current reads. Just based on my own personal experience with players in this game, my list of players that would fit your criteria is staggeringly short (read: Hapa who let the DP lynch go through relatively painlessly + whose scum game would have been outed by Yamato based on their history, and perhaps to a lesser degree ShiaoPi who I had as town at various points in LXI). | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 02:57 Coagulation wrote: Herp derp derp der. Derp derpy herpaderp? Derpaherp. I agree with everything you said, but I disagree with what I bolded. Could you clarify that? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 04:53 ShiaoPi wrote: OO/coag/sloosh: any comment on gk now? also who you wanna lynch today? (besides coag who wants me dead) I'm struggling to come up with a scenario where Yamato dies while jailed. Presumably Marv was retired, fulfilling his win-con, by using his KP thing on Yamato, but that only makes sense if Yamato was a fake CID investigator and the reveal doesn't say fake CID investigator. Are players made aware of whether or not a CID Investigator flip is a fake one or a real one, or is it intentionally ambiguous? | ||
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On June 25 2013 05:25 ShiaoPi wrote: i think the part about fake is just flavor for the assasins. but thats me Individual teams of 1 you think? | ||
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On June 25 2013 05:29 ShiaoPi wrote: yes. since they were 3rd parties. also thejr roles suggest working alone as they are pretty much jack of all trades with the focus on survival and hujting the other cid Okay, let's talk it out then. Scenario 1: He is actually JK. His semi-martyring and attitude come off as dejected town. His claim comes after the fact, no crumb or hint was shown that he had done this from before the deadline unless he hasn't brought it up but that's not something that normally happens in regular games anymore (crumbing, that is, unless you're Coag). Playing from behind, with lots of suspicion on him, he's using the last line of defense he can think to use since he doesn't feel confident enough to argue out of his position: his role. He does mention that he's had similar thought patterns to Yamato: On June 21 2013 15:34 goodkarma wrote: I can relate to his methodology of using process of elimination to determine scum, as this is the way I like to play. And I'd say it's possible that he came to the conclusions he did with said methodology. Especially considering the majority of this thread to date has been trollish nonsense rather than real scumhunting. He's a null read for me right now. Which in itself is a little odd, considering I quickly (and correctly) concluded he was town when playing with him in Les Mafia. so I can potentially see a defensive jail on Yamato from GK. Scenario 2: He's mafia claiming JK in a way that makes his claim unverifiable but also relatively believable. There's a potential way for Yamato to die even while JK'd and if he saw the flips and read the role PMs he would be able to use it as a last ditch effort to survive. Scenario 3: He's a mafia JK - I don't think this would pass the sniff test for game balance so I just want to discard it. Too broken. I think it boils down to opinion on whether or not one sources his claim as either desperation or exasperation and I can see the case for both. Apply KISS and the town explanation appeals to me more. I believe the claim that he is JK and that most likely means he is town. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 05:33 ShiaoPi wrote: also the other option would be 4 factions in a 14player game....highly doubt it town, scum and two other factions who have to kill each other? no just no, why would marv be femoved from game if he was not a 1man team that fulfilled his winconc? to be honest I dont quite get what your problem is witb the role. GKs roleclaim itself is terrible and in line with his d1 behavior I've been there man. I've martyred so many times that it's not even appropriate and I should have been banned for it. (LX, Carnival, one or two newbie games, I think even Fruity somewhat). What is your familiarity and, if it exists, your opinion of GK's scum game based on your history together if applicable? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 06:29 ShiaoPi wrote: Wait a sec, from just at start d2. Factional KP cannot be blocked. As gk picked that quote he must have known that he couls not defensively rb. so yamato would have been an offensive rb. while that makes more sense it is still weird why would you rb your null??? You're saying he knew that his action could not block KP, and therefore he used it offensively while knowing it wouldn't be effective offensively? I think you're misreading it. "Passive abilities and factional KP cannot be roleblocked." means you can't block the sending of the KP, it doesn't mean you can't protect someone from it with a JK ability. If you couldn't protect with the JK role what would be its value in this setup based on what we know of so far? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 10:38 Hapahauli wrote: blaaaargh and then adam brings up a good point The one thing that's been on the back of my mind this game about Oats, is that he's definetely throwing around his suspicions a lot and acting "paranoid", but he's pushing his suspicions in such a different way than town games I've seen him do in the past. For example, when he thought I was scum in his last town game (I Swear), he went against all thread sentiment and was hurling suspicion at me, screaming that I was scum and that he wanted me to get lynched. Similarly in Red Team's Prize, he did the same to a town-leader Palmar. Hurled shit at him against all town sentiment and was completely uncompromising about it. This game... he seems very reluctant to push his reads in any meaningful way. He's poked at me saying I'm scum several times this game, but it has all been a "joke" according to him. He's also poked at Adam, but sounds really reluctant to go after him. Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of this fever pitch foaming-mouth Oats. I don't think I'll get anything useful out of trying to figure out what his last-remaining-scum behavior is like given the sample size of his general behavior but you're right about some of these posts feeling really different. Then he goes and does his classical town format post which he's banging out at top speed so I think it's authentic: On June 25 2013 11:13 Oatsmaster wrote: Because closed setup. Gk martyred. I rather kill adam cause I think he has a higher chance of being scum. He scumclaimed MORE.  So do you have exact questions? Oats, you need to relax for a second. Read GK's post, shit I'll even do it myself. Cross out the martyring stuff and look at his thoughts regarding the game that have nothing to do with him wanting to die. On June 25 2013 09:53 goodkarma wrote: Kinda a pain, as that means between Hapa, Oats, Adam, Shao, you need to determine one you absolutely believe to be townie in determining the last scum. Sadly, I would say Adam is someone I like more than the other three right now. Picked Yamato because he thinks similarly to me as town, and I saw that type of mentality here. Voting on the DP wagon also put him on the list of "very likely town," so made him the best candidate in my mind. Obvious I also considered, given the mislynch push on him by flipped scum put him at near confirmed town. Ange actually didn't come to mind at the time. She had "internet troubles" for a good deal of the day, and my biggest concern as JK was to find a likely town I felt would 1) likely be able to carrry town to victory, and 2) would be a likely candidate to get shot by scum. Yamato fit best in my mind. And any arguements like "Ange was obvious JK choice," are making pants-on-head retarded arguements. It's super-easy to say shit like that in retrospect post-flip. Be sure to not have some built-in bias and reassess the game anew after my flip. Like that really is a big piece of this is build in bias. Sure I haven't done oodles of stuff in finding scum, but quite frankly, several people are just as guilty of me in this category. So what it comes down to is you don't like my writing style, or don't like that I'm not perma-inthread, or don't like I don't ask a shitload of pointless questions, or so on... What questions I've asked I've clarified, and what cases I've made I've clarified. I really don't care to retread anything I've done to date. Those leading this wagon (Shao and Hapa), to the extent of my knowledge, have both EXCLUSIVELY played with me when I've been scum, so I imagine they have bias there as well. They keep trying to match up what I've done as scum, and have not tried worth fucking shit to see if I would be capable of doing that as town. In other words, they're making piss-poor meta arguements. Sure you could say this guy has "objectively scummy" play or whatever, but honestly, some of the case points I've seen recently are absolute crap. Like "your posts are long": THAT's HOW I FUCKING WRITE. "Your roleclaim is convenient": This is a point made with the complete bias of looking in retrospect at how people flipped. "Maybe you should change your day one playstyle": I could go into great depth as to how that wouldn't change anything (I've tried numerous different things actually), and how this is more about how I write and process information than anything. Seriously, is this post even necessary if he's the last scum? As Hapa brought up, GK literally just quit mafia right in front of us, within the game? Arguably not the best place to do it but seriously, why would he as mafia write a huge ass exit post, resign to his fate, and still contribute in some way to reads and helping the town on the way out? If he's not going to come back then he flips eventually anyway and we'll find out for sure when that happens but at least don't completely disregard that this is meaningful thought about the game when he could literally just plain check out. As a martyr in previous games as well as reading some others I've seen lots of arguments used to lynch martyrs, policy, pity, lack of alternative. I've never seen anything like this before. Yes, it's premeditated. He knew he was fed up with his situation, he crafted this and he posted it. He didn't spam or shit up the thread with his anger; it was neat an concise and delivered some final thoughts that aren't out of left field. On June 25 2013 11:27 Hapahauli wrote: Can you link me that post by DP btw? But also, I can't really see scum-GK being this... emotionally manipulative, you know? If Oats can show how DP tried to help further the town agenda in his quit post then I will accept his stance on GK being scum. As far as a response to you about Oats... well, I still haven't invoked that policy lynch yet, so there's that. He's completely disregarding his image for his push(es), he's not buddying ANYONE or trying to mirror thread sentiment. I don't feel like he's actively trying to change his playstyle or anything, this feels like genuine townie fanaticism from him. Some of this off the hinges stuff just... makes me consider that I should doubt my read, and then he comes back down to his baseline. | ||
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On June 22 2013 00:32 ShiaoPi wrote: I think mainly based on gut feeling and comparison with the last game as scum we had together. Cant remember the last time goodkarma rolled town with me playing as well. Also you just objectively judged that the case is terribad, so why do you need so much meta? Meta is much more of a helpful factor in my opinion not necessarily the argument to get somebody lynched. So I see gk doing that case on oats which is scummy as shit and then compare it to his play in I swear, I think its similar so it reinforces my scumread on him... To be honest I don't even know what your problem is "I thought about GK's meta so I used his meta to describe his meta but meta isn't the only thing I believe is a good idea to use" lol | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 24 2013 15:18 ShiaoPi wrote: EBWOP: I mean its like 2 votes on me already IIRC. Sure we are still early into the day but I am saying that we should lynch into adam or gk preferrably gk, but if that is not gonna happen because you think me scummier, fine lynch me but get gk next after you see my town flip. Hapa tell me what you make of this. This is closer to that scum flavor of martyring that Oats has been belligerent about. Oats, you got thoughts about this? You threw yourself into the argument regarding GK but you let this one slip by? | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 26 2013 04:51 Hapahauli wrote: My feeling is Shiao as well. Yes he had that burst of "gahh I'm lost" posting, but he seems more interested in that than actaully finding mafia. There are two things that are wierding me out about his filter right now: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=417453¤tpage=78#1542 This post, in which he expresses doubts about GoodKarma yet wants to trade with him anyway. Trading is something you do when you're 100% convinced the other person is scum, and not as a "eh I'm not sure" move. ...And this... Shiao's a smart guy, so him not seeing eye-to-eye with us on the GK issue is a bit alarming. I'd expect this from Oats, but not from Shiao. I also really don't understand why his switch flipped all of a sudden when GK made his JK claim: If anything, that claim should make you doubt his allignment, and not immediately remove all doubts about his allignment. That sums it up pretty well for recent activity. There's also the theme in his filter about calling "lurkers" back to the game. He calls out GK, me, and sloosh the most from a quick skim looking for those. Has he been calling people scummy for lurking, though? Not quite. Technically he can't. He spent a major portion of D1 MIA. This could also explain why there was no major swing from Shiao to push things towards GK. | ||
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Coag, lend me your vote. I know you be readin'. | ||
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On June 26 2013 13:47 Oatsmaster wrote: maybe it was a good bus by rayn and DP. OO, I would really like you to post too. Sure thing! This is a post! In all seriousness, did you want to hear my conspiracy theories? Surrounding theory 1: Would like to hear what it is that Coag thinks he has on you, that I don't see him having expanded on. Things he has in his favor: voted DP, shot a second mafia. So unless he's planning to basically lurk out the game and survive to the end riding that he's definitely town. But he's not being forthcoming with his explanation for why you are scum, and I don't think you are, so I'm not sure how to take that as a tell. Not wanting to participate in what he believed was a town lynch without showing exactly why it is that you're scum is suspect to me right now. This does NOT explain where the RB came from though as he has claimed vig powers, so we can throw him out as a suspect? Debunked. Surrounding theory 2: Cora has a power that is active during the day. What if he's only claiming half of his power? Those 3P roles had 2 active and one passive ability; what if he's a day-voting-power and night-something-else? Given what we know about the other town roles so far, it's not super likely, just more likely that since they were playing for their own individual win-cons despite being in the game together they had to have some support mechanism. Cora being roleblocked would mean there's an unclaimed bus driver or RB/JK that isn't GK. This scenario is convoluted and leaves a lot to be desired, creates more questions than it answers, discarded. Surrounding theory 3: GK pulled off the best rage-quit post of all time as the final mafia, lying about who he had targeted with his JK action (or RB, since I still think JK is broken as a mafia ability) and used it on Cora. His explanation and town's consensus seems to be that Yamato was a good protect for N1, but why lie about it after the fact that the RB was disclosed? If he was only pretending to have protected Yamato while blocking Cora then it makes sense to have blocked Cora based on his blue claim day 1 if he's mafia? Town JK would just own up to it. Simplest explanations still remain that Coag is a town vig, Cora is a town double-voter (unless something weird happens tonight?) with no night powers, GK is town JK. 3 town based on roles (or their usage) alone. Hapa I have as town for his hyper engagement and willingness to consider things thoughtfully and rationally with his posts. Oats, Sloosh, and Adam are all the furthest from town on the spectrum so I will probably have to take a look at each of them again. Oats I've written off as town based mostly on his town meta, Sloosh I originally gave a town read for because I could see exactly where he was coming from regarding my slot among other things, Adam had a super strong start outside of his vote but I don't hold the vote against him as it was made in haste so I need to do a comb-over for his content. Somewhere in here that has to be a motive for blocking Cora. There you go, that's where I'm headed. | ||
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On June 27 2013 03:00 Acrofales wrote: Just to be absolutely clear: there are no standard notifications (RB, save, hit) in this game. Is the one we are aware of a taboo topic then? | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On June 21 2013 14:14 Oatsmaster wrote: why dont you change your playstyle so you dont get lynched? Oats, I'm sure I've had trouble being able to tell in past circumstances, but when you're antagonizing Cora a little bit here, is it in a joking manner? I think that's been a theme with you this game as well, joking around? Was that a motive to taking some jabs at Cora's playstyle? (It's just a touch of hypocrisy [jokes! but not really, but really] I don't see anything here to point towards reasons for blocking Cora unless Oats thought Cora was a vig and going to shoot him. | ||
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ObviousOne
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On June 25 2013 17:40 Adam4167 wrote: Sloosh, here is my solidified post as to why I think Oats is scum. First, look at Oats attitude towards the GK ragequit post. He goes from: I don't think its alignment indicative. Add in casting suspicion onto Hapa for a legitimate unvote and also apparently knowing that GK gave up 'as town'. To: A SCUMCLAIM. In 10 minutes. His justification is: I don't think a townie would ragequit in a way that makes himself look this townie, therefore its a scumclaim. Read that again if you have to. I do not buy this explanation one bit. Look at his attitude towards me. He has been hammering me since I got in here, and utterly refuses to listen to anything I put forward about why I am not scum, nor does he listen to why other people think I might be town. I gave a legitimate response for why I was not playing up to my Duel mafia standards, for which he had no rebuttal. He then uses the same argument again as a reason I am scum when discussing with OO. This kind of blatant disregard for anything coming out of your targets mouth is scummy. You know they're making a point that you cant argue, but you keep harping on it anyway. The one time he shows some form of insecurity in his read towards me? The post he votes me in. That is scummy. If you're sure I'm scum, as he damn well appears to be, drop your vote, call me scum and start convincing everyone else of your viewpoint. Instead, its this: "Last time I tunneled someone to death against what everyone was saying they flipped town. Is that happening again?" This attitude does not gel with voting someone. He's apparently reconsidering yet voting to kill me in the same post. Inconsistent. Scummy. I already went over this before but ill go over it again. I called him out for not having a vote for me. He felt insecure and the need to correct that perceived wrong so he slapped his vote down as soon as he could. One minute later, he's saying "Votes dont matter man", so why did he vote in the first place if they don't matter! He realized he made a mistake and tried to downplay it. If he felt votes didn't matter, he would have responded to my first post with "it doesn't matter now, ill vote you later in the day after the discussion is over", but that isn't what happened. Adam, this makes sense to me but how do you reconcile that inconsistency from Oats is scummy when Oats is by definition inconsistent? Can you see a case for Oats literally spending this entire game reaction fishing (my term for it, not sure what to actually call it)? I believe it could be possible, however unlikely, for him to adapt his town style to this game if he's the last remaining scum. That means his agenda will always be his own and not of his teams, so being his town self (random, inconsistent, scummy-looking) would be to his benefit here. The problem with this theory is that he's been doing it the whole game. I can't identify a transition from team mentality to solo-Oats mentality in his filter. | ||
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ObviousOne
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##Vote Goodkarma | ||
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Day 1: Votes for GK over DP given the time he had having replaced in. Forgivable on its own. Night 1: Rayn versus Adam distancing + Show Spoiler [Distancing] + On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote: I am reasonably caught up. Right now I want to see more out of GoodKarma, ShioaPi and Raynpelikoneet. Oats would be on this list as well if he weren't playing like a dick. I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow. Those of us that were on GK yesterday, I actually have some of my better townreads on: Cora, Marv and yourself (in that order). On June 23 2013 15:04 Adam4167 wrote: I actually like Rayns interest on D1, he seems to be trying to figure people out and push along his agenda. What I don't get is his push on you, and part of that being that you weren't on the DP vote. He says its not a factor, yet he brings it up twice. Now I understand hes been drinking tonight, so I want him to come along tomorrow and make some more sense. Basically his reads stand at odds with my own and id like a better insight. GK and ShiaoPi tunneling each other is interesting. ShiaoPi just went AWOL instead of trying to push his scum read and GK did much the same after they had both voted each other. I want to see if they continue pushing each other and how they go about doing that. Oats has been thoroughly useless, as discussed. I hope that he decides playing like an imbecile is boring soon and actually puts forward a decent case against you so I can get an idea of what he is actually thinking. I am reacting strongly towards oats on this because he had a box seat to Smurf Mafia being a co-host of that game. He clearly saw what kind of an effect a player like Kush can have on the town, yet hes choosing to mimic that here. What i'm starting to think is that he saw a towns reluctance to lynch an objectively scummy looking player and decided to replicate that here to his benefit. On June 24 2013 07:54 Adam4167 wrote: Rayn, the reason you cant tell who I suspect to be scum is because I don't know that myself. Ill walk you through my current thought process. As per this post: I don't consider anyone on the DP wagon to be a viable lynch for tomorrow, so I strike them off my list. I then take out the people I feel are town who were on the GK wagon - Cora, Hapa, Marv. This leaves me with 4 names: Yourself, ShiaoPi, GK and Oats. I liked your hustle on D1, so I feel most confident that you're town out of this bunch, so you come off. Oats is being a right shit, but most people seem to think hes town for it, so I move him to the maybe category. This leaves me with either GK or ShiaoPi. I doubt they're both scum together due to their actions on D1, so unless we're dealing with a 3 man scum team of DP, Oats and one of these two, I've already messed up somewhere in my logic. This leads me to conclude that either my town reads on the GK wagon are wrong, or that the scum are on the DP wagon and bussed him yesterday. I sincerely do not think the scum team bussed yesterday, for that they threw away an exceptional scum player with probably the best role to suit his play style. So I take a look at the 3 people I called town on the GK wagon with me... and all I see is town. I cant manufacture scum reads that I don't have. So this is where i'm at. I hope to have a better understanding of what actually happened D1 after the KP starts flying around the place. Where to tomorrow? Resolving the GK and ShiaoPi situation looks as good a place to start. I don't get a strong scum read off either of them by examining either of their filters. I don't find the cases that either of them put forward yesterday to be all that compelling either. Hence my comment on seeing what they did and how they did it. On June 24 2013 01:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: I have a terrible hangover so i am not going to try to have more of a headache today by rereading. I am still suspicious of Hapa. I don't think anyone who voted for DP is scum unless GK is scum too, but i find it kinda hard to believe there would be only 2 scum wagons at the end of the day. That does not just sit well with me, especially considering my scumreads are not lurkers. I still think Oats is town for what i have said and i don't like how Hapa was (and apparently is?) unable to understand my read on him. I have no idea why he thought Oats was mafia last night. I need to relook into Cora, as his reads were pretty shitty in my opinion when he last gave them. I also have suspicions towards Adam. I have no idea who he thinks is scum and that's really worrisome. On June 23 2013 13:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: You underlined it, i did not. I was saying Hapa was on GK wagon and i don't think he never pursued it as he would as town (see my original case). I am not as cheap to say "Hapa is scum because he was on the wrong wagon" as i do know that means nothing. Now, sleep. Why is it distancing? Neither is outright calling the other mafia. Rayn, however, does leave us with a little bit of insight into this. Note the semi-defensive posture taken regarding lynching Adam during N1 - he's getting a feel for whether or not he will need to all-in defend Adam at some point: On June 24 2013 05:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hapa, let's talk about something else than D1 for a change. You said a lot about solving this game revolves around flipping GK, and if he flipped town you would then look into ShiaoPi and Adam. I can get the ShiaoPi part, but why Adam? And do you actually think GK is mafia or what were you trying to say there? That we should lynch him to have more information on ShiaoPi/Adam? That doesn't really sound like a reason to lynch someone. Making excuses for himself regarding having reads this game, probably in response to heckling from the peanut gallery (Oats, in this case): On June 24 2013 19:10 Adam4167 wrote: around 36 hours. I do not get the same feel reading a game that I wasn't in than when I do playing in one. It clouds my reads. My obs reads are notoriously shit as a result. Trying to form legitimate scum reads was difficult this game, made especially difficult by the caliber of the players that rolled scum. So I focused on what I could do, find town reads, be as open and clear with my thought process as I could. I have been extremely upfront with the fact that my scum reads were lacking this game. On June 24 2013 19:16 Adam4167 wrote: What you're feeling as 'different' from duel mafia is simple - confidence. The second Dieno stepped into the thread in Duel, I had him bagged, Kierathi soon after. I was confident almost to a fault, I led a crusade against two reasonably townie looking players because I was running on such a high from dragging down two scum. No one was anywhere near that obvious this game, at least not to me. He cites confidence. As in confidence that people are scum. If he's the final scum, he would not be able to have any such confidence about players. Look at his more recent reads from the past day or so: 1 Paraphrased = Oats is town. Oats is probably town. Oats town. Think Oats is town. - This is an exceptional turnaround from his super willingness to lynch Oats earlier in the game for not liking his playstyle. Adam admits as much in his filter. 2 Paraphrased = Looking for any possible reason to justify lynching GK. - Ends up being from Rayn's filter, namely a lack of Rayn calling GK scum despite all of the suspicion towards GK. I'm still not seeing a lot of confidence outside of the safest call in the world that Oats is town. Quote-less version and my interpretation: - Soft attempt at steering the DP lynch towards GK - Established distance between both Rayn and Adam - Rayn fishing for Hapa's reasons why Adam would be scum - Lack of confidence in most of his reads - Declaration that Oats is town So Adam ridiculed the concept that people thought he could be mafia originally based on what was first spotted by others as what looked like distancing before Rayn died N1. My counter-point is that the distancing would have to be gentle and long term, especially after losing their GF D1, as a means to prevent any flip associations when playing from behind already. Their suspicions of each other aren't really convincing, but they are early "suspicions". Yelling at people to change their votes to GK would draw more attention to himself. The best Adam could do in this case was to hope. Hapa and Rayn's interactions during N1 lead me to believe that Rayn was fishing for information from Hapa as to why Hapa thought Adam was scum. Hapa states that his suspicion on Adam is minor and Rayn doesn't pursue it further -- his teammate is no longer in jeopardy. Adam has a self-professed lack of confidence in his reads, and from a perusal of his filter I feel I can agree. The most interesting development is his change of heart regarding Oats, and this is where I believe he has cemented his downfall -- Oats may be his key to winning this game. Who are the Oats detractors? Cora. Coag. Securing another mislynch by not killing those two CLAIMED POWER ROLES thus leaving them stuck with their stagnating read of Oats and then later leaving himself the opportunity to use their tunnels on Oats as evidence against them. He is just realizing this NOW and is preparing for one of those pushes next. Then why kill Hapa last night? Kill the town voice of reason, the most trustable person we had left who we could depend on for a well-considered view of the game and who led or shaped most of the fruitful conversations we've had. To create a void into which he could fit himself, which it seems he is trying to do right now. + Show Spoiler [side note] + Going to be gone most of tomorrow afternoon/evening for a bday party. | ||
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On June 29 2013 16:44 Adam4167 wrote: And if you truly believed a word of that, why have you just been sitting on it while I steer the thread? Why does this case on me only appear after I badger you for half a cycle to produce something. What means this? You asked me why I hadn't responded to your thing from ages ago, I presume you meant the "where I am going with this" thing? This is in response to that. Whether or not you like the timing or subject matter of it is really of no consequence to me. If you're not mafia, and you're asking me who is mafia, and I tell you it's probably you, you don't get up in my face about how it's timely or delayed or whatever or you asked for that shit twelve days ago. That's a scummy counter. Is it biased? Probably. Does it fit the form of the game state? I believe so or I wouldn't have posted it. Are you actually scum? I'll tell you after I review Sloosh when I get back. | ||
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DP-vote related stuff: + Show Spoiler [DP vote related] + On June 23 2013 07:08 slOosh wrote: I think you are overemphasizing the 3 votes a bit - you saw that they were quickly removed as they were put on. You said yourself it doesn't make sense for town DP to do that either. So I don't understand how you are using something alignment null to say DP is leaning town. On June 23 2013 07:28 slOosh wrote: Ok Ange is now my new best friend. ##Vote: DarthPunk On June 23 2013 07:45 slOosh wrote: One reason I want to lynch DP over GK is that he prefaces his suspicions of "hey, I always find them scummy". It's a cop out of responsibility. Indecision between GK and Shiao: Why would he belabor the hell out of his decision in the thread so much? I suppose it could be as a way to appear to be contributing but honestly it all seems to fit in naturally into the conversation. I don't think I'd give scum sloosh THAT much credit but since D1 he hasn't been radiating that shining beacon of towniness. Not enough alone to give him a scum read. Unvoting GK, switching to Shiao: GK's quit/exit post. I think most of us agreed it was no normal mafia rage-quit post. Lynching Shiao sort of set us down the path of lynching the least town-looking each day in lieu of being able to locate scum. Save the JK, hope GK comes back and plays if he's not going to be lynched. Rational and thoughtful thing to do. Finally lynching GK: GK settled to quitting so there wasn't much to be done otherwise. Also going along with this, Sloosh sounds pretty in-tune with the game state: On June 28 2013 12:56 slOosh wrote: Dude, morale is a huge part of the game. Maybe it's your personality, maybe it's because you replaced in, maybe it's because you are on the chopping block, and maybe it's the vice versa for the rest of the crew, but being lazy doesn't necessitate scum. And lynching based off activity levels is foolish. And lynching based of arbitrary levels of effort is also foolish. Since when does something like motivation trump reason? I bet you, if you asked all the players after D2 that if you could choose to win or lose the game by simultaneously lynching into Hapa / Adam / Oats / GK, every single person would have taken that deal. And I bet if you ask each person that same question now, they would still take it. What's more to give? What's more to do? It's all said and done. If you want to off GK first, honestly, I'm not that adverse to it. In this last quote, the only possible mafia motivation he could have is that he's basically proposed the game is solved by elimination and he is not on the list. That doesn't make it any less the case that he's probably right. I don't see how he's mafia from this. Minute thing about Oats is that his activity has fallen off, relative to earlier days, but he does have about 1/5th of the game for his filter so... I'm still not worried about Oats, he might just be busy. ##vote Adam4167 | ||
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@sloosh, I'll talk you through my thoughts after I get home tonight, but I'm feeling pretty lost right now. Adam being town means maybe I'm being lenient in some way regarding either you or Oats. I'm not even considering Coag based entirely on his shot; I don't see why he wouldn't just shoot Marv N1 since he'd been pushing for it all day and it would make sense (in a sort of twisted way) to see him do that. It may come back round to Oats. Dat filter.... anyway, a project for when I get home. | ||
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On July 02 2013 13:36 Oatsmaster wrote: which response would make you think im town? Just the facts or your own perception of the situation if you have a theory. Bullet points of you prefer not to write an essay I want to see the line of thinking there. | ||
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On July 02 2013 13:52 Oatsmaster wrote: coag shot a dude coag is playing not objectively townie. So yeah I don't see how you don't see this So would I be interpreting your theory correctly that you think he's (now-mafia) traitor because he shot a mafia and then largely stopped playing the game? You realize we're talking about Coag, right? You believe he was playing for town until he was recruited in your scenario and that his play has drastically 180'd away from (IMO) not looking particularly townie to (objectively) not looking particularly townie... wait what? I agree he's likely literally phoning it in (posting on his phone pun, ha) but probably the largest dichotomy in the game right now is that he wants you dead and you want him dead and it's been that way for a few game days. Which day or night or whatever do you believe he was recruited? What gives you that impression? Is it just his activity? Was there something specific that he did say or possibly ignored that led you to this idea? | ||
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Are you still bent on killing Oats? That's the gist I get from your filter. Do you think that's factoring into him wanting to lynch you? Updates please. | ||
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On July 02 2013 14:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Thoughts on sloosh. Recently summarized my filter dive, I was definitely leaning town or more specifically highly-improbably scum. Newer stuff, reviewed: He maintains that you are scummiest and has cited that so many dead townies have been suspicious of you. This could be a reasonable position. Before that, he had this post (click) which reflected similar (and probably led to the newer post in terms of process). Heh, interestingly enough I don't think he's had a strong town read on you at all for most of this game? Last few pages of his filter contain references to dead townies' scum reads on you and that you were somewhat less scummy than Adam. Could see this as angling to keep himself fluid but then again, I feel much more confident in my ability to read you than he may find his own and I remember the madness of trying to put effort into reading your filter when we first started playing together, which he may be feeling. Your (Oats') actions speak a lot louder than your actual words. Yeah, I'd still say highly improbable he's scum unless you see something factual he's lied about to use against you, Oats (you know your filter better than me). So you're probably right, I've basically arrived at the same conclusion. Oats - your town meta, filter length, style of interview, also I laughed a couple times reading your filter (sorry didn't note your jokes) Sloosh - very vocally concerned that things are falling apart, consistent/believable thought pattern outside of his read on you Coag - shot scum, missing in action, Oats' theory may just as well match up with Coag's actions On July 02 2013 14:21 Oatsmaster wrote: I mean all this is really overkill to a simple thing. Just sharing my thoughts. I think we're on the same page at this point? | ||
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On July 02 2013 14:45 Oatsmaster wrote: Also Cora. Who has not played the game since GK got lynched. And who looks town cause of day 1 and RB claim thing. Cora died On July 02 2013 14:46 Oatsmaster wrote: Has there been an RB flip? No. That's basically why I have been poking you about your theory. If Coag isn't lying / hiding anything about his role then Sloosh is the last mafia or you've finally gotten a handle on your scum game. On July 02 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch sloosh and Cora before Coag btw, I was saying that if Coag is not town, thats a possible but HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely explanation. Another thing. Coag might be CID inspector. CID inspector is unlikely given that Marv won and left the game, isn't it? If Yamato was the Fake CID or if all CID inspectors got the same objectives then he was the last one. Another real inspector would have won as well, another fake inspector and he would not have achieved his win con. | ||
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On July 02 2013 14:59 Oatsmaster wrote: oh lol right rightttttt. The Fake CID is flavor btw. Each CID wouldve been fake to the other. But maybe you have to actually kill the CID or you lose but you dont die. Like with Yamato JKed, Marv is the only person who couldve killed Yamato. And marv was CID. Nothing left but CID inspectors! Jokes aside, I just don't see three 3P in a game this size. | ||
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On July 02 2013 15:16 Oatsmaster wrote: YES. come on OO, lynch Sloosh Hrm I was just thinking about that, actually (the stuff after the DP lynch) but I didn't recognize the lack of followup. I need to read through him one more time tomorrow. On July 02 2013 15:14 Coagulation wrote: yeah im totes town.. im thinkin a sloosh lynch.. X-Files level shit right here. I want to believe. | ||
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On July 03 2013 09:07 slOosh wrote: Got it! Ok. The [redacted] was something like this: DP and rayn make the pretense of lynching OO, without actually intending to lynch him. Why? Good place to start. OO has still yet to get his scum legs (wings?) nice and stretched out. He plays the scared / lurker type scum. So, scum game plan? So they do just that. It explains why both DP and rayn were making a good show about how they were on OO. OO does the same. Now what they didn't expect, was super tag team Coag / slOosh / Ange to come in and actually start voting for DP. What to do as people start talking about DP or GK? Not consolidate on your scumread. In fact, drop hints because you desperately want someone to switch, but not yourself because that's too scary. Let me repeat that. He drops his #1 scumread, because he might produce content later. He agrees, but doesn't move his own VOTE OH MY GOSH I"M REALIZING THIS AS I TYPE ##Vote: ObviousOne Haha that's pretty funny. Two of your points of evidence are made-up scum QT conversations, that's pretty cute, I have to admit. The last part you have misinterpreted entirely for your nefarious purposes. Did you read the context in which that was written? That was not dropping my scum read on DP, please re-read P51 if you are having issues with the concept. The topic at hand was the merits of choosing one or the other for people who were still on the fence. End of day, consolidation, two realistic non-shenanigan lynches. Think about it. Hell, look at Adam's post DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH it where he's basically saying the exact same thing: On June 23 2013 07:53 Adam4167 wrote: ##Vote: Goodkarma Of the two, DP looks more invested and I venture ill have a better chance at figuring him out on later days when we're the only two awake talking in the thread. And finally, since you may not be aware I just played and won a game as scum, you can read up on PTroughton2 in Smurf Mini. Your theoretical case is completely manufactured. | ||
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##vote slOosh Your reign ends here. | ||
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On July 03 2013 09:09 slOosh wrote: Gj Adam. Gj. Woah holy shit are you sheeping the only dead townie from the last few days who didn't say to kill Oats? Is that why you didn't shoot Coag and shot Oats instead? So you could have this "revelation" to present to the strong-silent Coag who essentially decides town's fate? Coagplz, look at him trying to twist me on complete BS. | ||
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Day 1: I'm gone for half of the cycle, I come back to find DP on my nuts for a policy stance. I even told you to vote DP, Coag. And you did. And then you shot Rayn, the other person who tried to get me killed willy nilly. You are town or you based Ace. DP parked his vote on me and presumably went to sleep. Rayn, I don't even remember what/if said he was going to do but he didn't move either. What did it matter one way or the other where Rayn's vote ended up, and more importantly why the fuck would both scum vote for the third scum on day 1 on an isolated wagon? Using where their votes ended as evidence against me is a stretch given neither was posting in the couple of hours before deadline. So the proposition that slOosh wants you to believe is that they fully intended to "bus" me together by the end of the day and crossed their fingers that I would be the one to flip in their absence? Why wouldn't I have resigned myself to my fate instead of pushing back as I did? If I was on a team with them it would have been the simplest thing in the world to just shut my mouth and let it go, especially in this "scenario" that slOosh proposes where I'm lurk-fest mafia (which yes, if you look at my past scum games matches a behavioral meta to a certain degree, namely Hydra Mini and Boardwalk) and they get town credit for being on the scum lynch wagon, and thus disregarded for day 2. Which is exactly the plan that Adam proposed and that slOosh had no problem with when it was presented. On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote: I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow. 5 days later he's still embracing it and twisting it to cast suspicion on Oats? On June 28 2013 00:37 slOosh wrote: I could say the same thing of you. You cite inactivity as a reason why you want to lynch me, even though we just played a game where I had a 1 page (1 page!) filter day 1. It's hard to figure out your alignment because you are trying to direct us into lynching people who were on the DP wagon which is absolute nonsense. I'm trying to figure stuff out and it's possible I might be grasping at straws, because that's honestly what I'm doing. Everyone looks town. I'm trying to find tiebreakers. If it means I target your nonsense, then that's that. And last night Oats dies. slOosh's greatest detractor, the last remaining person with a longstanding 1v1 in the game, and you think that I had any motivation to kill Oats? He DEFINITELY had motivation to kill Oats. Because he only needs to convince you, Coag. | ||
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On July 04 2013 07:36 slOosh wrote: I hammered DP. OO waffled around and even tried to get people to vote GK (but was too scared to do it himself), even though he had DP as a strong scum read. Oh you mean like how you ended up voting for DP? You didn't call DP scum ever before he flipped. Ange did it for you. On June 23 2013 07:28 slOosh wrote: Ok Ange is now my new best friend. ##Vote: DarthPunk With your "slightly tipping the scales" towards DP? On June 23 2013 07:45 slOosh wrote: One reason I want to lynch DP over GK is that he prefaces his suspicions of "hey, I always find them scummy". It's a cop out of responsibility. I wouldn't call that confidence. How can you take credit for the hammer when it looks like you barely even believed your scum read on DP, so far as to essentially let Ange do the talking for you? Would you also be so keen to take ownership of your hammer vote if we had gotten a town flip instead? The fact is, I helped lead that wagon, you just came along for the ride. | ||
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On July 04 2013 10:37 slOosh wrote: OO has been coasting hard with "semi-confirmed" status since N1, with no interest in actually finding scum until now, which is lylo, which is when scum have to pull off the mislynch themselves. Find me one true scum read in his filter. Show me where he puts effort in getting someone lynched. Quote where he tries to actively figure crap out instead of coasting like a scum who is riding town cred would. artist relevant actually, maybe the title too [the preceeding is a dramatization, no animals were harmed in the production of this post] I'd rather know what Coag wants to ask about than what you can spin up. | ||
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On July 05 2013 08:13 raynpelikoneet wrote: Yeah you did. I kinda figured you were a vigi but i didn't think you actually thought i was scum so i thought you would shoot some townie. DP getting lynched was really lol from our part. Fuck we were doing so fine and then it all blew apart because me/DP had to leave and we didn't make a good plan for the rest of D1 before that. :/ OO you really should have lynched GK, no matter how bad that would look on you. would have been a sweeter game if it was only 2 days, yeah | ||
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On July 05 2013 08:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: It's not only your fault (despite the fact you really should have lynched GK). We had timezone/RL "issues" and should have planned the end of D1 earlier. i think we all learned an important lesson here just don't bus me day one and you will live to see day 2 | ||
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On July 05 2013 10:05 Oatsmaster wrote: Thanks OO, for helping me not lose at lylo. Kill the confirmed townies next time eh? Never | ||
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On July 05 2013 10:09 DarthPunk wrote: Don't be afk and useless day one and you won't get bussed. Leading the wagon on me for absolutely no reason after saying you were going to make a case on shiao was pretty WTF. Not shooting coag and failing to actually use the town cred you sacked me over was frustrating and it seems as if you didn't really try that hard at LYLO. all in all this game was a soul crushing experience. Hey, look at the bright side, at least you died! | ||
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They call me Nostradamus | ||
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On July 05 2013 13:25 slOosh wrote: Thank you HiroPro and Acrofales for hosting a great game, and all the players for playing! I think OO would have won straight out by shooting Coag instead of Oats, given that I was tunneling so hard. A large part of why I thought Adam was scum was that there was (from my POV), very little to explain D1 concerning OO bus, and I was pretty paranoid after back to back uncertain mislynches, and I thought that scum in your position (non DP voters) would have to eventually pull 1 mislynch off the DP voter pool to win. So yes, shoot Coag -> I blind tunnel Oats into oblivion, and Oats probably counter vote me. I only started listening to dead Adam once Oats died, which served as the trigger that he wished his death would be. After that it was pretty easy to sift through OO being scum (beside the setup spec which I was doubting till the end). @Cora Agree with what Adam said. It's not scummy to be wrong, or even hard defend scum. In fact, many times town are wrong (e.g. me until the endgame). Claiming to save your hide really should be last resort (and I might try to argue never to claim in that way), because it gives scum ammo (e.g. "this guy is panicing really hard must be scum"), and lets them blue shot / rb better. Better to let your behavior speak for itself. I'll never admit to the setup speculation being intentional (for my own benefit) in public. Never happened. | ||
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On July 05 2013 13:32 slOosh wrote: ? I was referring to my own setup spec, e.g. traitor / 2 family, which I summarily shut off as not possible. The one scenario I didn't realize until the end, which turned out to be true, was that there was a pretend bus attempt D1 that happened to get out of control. I almost won the hosts' ire when I kept asking them questions in the thread. That's what I was referring to, about myself. Sorry Hiro  | ||
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