EPT##Vote Goodkarma
Catch 22 Mafia - Page 5
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
##Vote Goodkarma | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Day 1: Votes for GK over DP given the time he had having replaced in. Forgivable on its own. Night 1: Rayn versus Adam distancing + Show Spoiler [Distancing] + On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote: I am reasonably caught up. Right now I want to see more out of GoodKarma, ShioaPi and Raynpelikoneet. Oats would be on this list as well if he weren't playing like a dick. I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow. Those of us that were on GK yesterday, I actually have some of my better townreads on: Cora, Marv and yourself (in that order). On June 23 2013 15:04 Adam4167 wrote: I actually like Rayns interest on D1, he seems to be trying to figure people out and push along his agenda. What I don't get is his push on you, and part of that being that you weren't on the DP vote. He says its not a factor, yet he brings it up twice. Now I understand hes been drinking tonight, so I want him to come along tomorrow and make some more sense. Basically his reads stand at odds with my own and id like a better insight. GK and ShiaoPi tunneling each other is interesting. ShiaoPi just went AWOL instead of trying to push his scum read and GK did much the same after they had both voted each other. I want to see if they continue pushing each other and how they go about doing that. Oats has been thoroughly useless, as discussed. I hope that he decides playing like an imbecile is boring soon and actually puts forward a decent case against you so I can get an idea of what he is actually thinking. I am reacting strongly towards oats on this because he had a box seat to Smurf Mafia being a co-host of that game. He clearly saw what kind of an effect a player like Kush can have on the town, yet hes choosing to mimic that here. What i'm starting to think is that he saw a towns reluctance to lynch an objectively scummy looking player and decided to replicate that here to his benefit. On June 24 2013 07:54 Adam4167 wrote: Rayn, the reason you cant tell who I suspect to be scum is because I don't know that myself. Ill walk you through my current thought process. As per this post: I don't consider anyone on the DP wagon to be a viable lynch for tomorrow, so I strike them off my list. I then take out the people I feel are town who were on the GK wagon - Cora, Hapa, Marv. This leaves me with 4 names: Yourself, ShiaoPi, GK and Oats. I liked your hustle on D1, so I feel most confident that you're town out of this bunch, so you come off. Oats is being a right shit, but most people seem to think hes town for it, so I move him to the maybe category. This leaves me with either GK or ShiaoPi. I doubt they're both scum together due to their actions on D1, so unless we're dealing with a 3 man scum team of DP, Oats and one of these two, I've already messed up somewhere in my logic. This leads me to conclude that either my town reads on the GK wagon are wrong, or that the scum are on the DP wagon and bussed him yesterday. I sincerely do not think the scum team bussed yesterday, for that they threw away an exceptional scum player with probably the best role to suit his play style. So I take a look at the 3 people I called town on the GK wagon with me... and all I see is town. I cant manufacture scum reads that I don't have. So this is where i'm at. I hope to have a better understanding of what actually happened D1 after the KP starts flying around the place. Where to tomorrow? Resolving the GK and ShiaoPi situation looks as good a place to start. I don't get a strong scum read off either of them by examining either of their filters. I don't find the cases that either of them put forward yesterday to be all that compelling either. Hence my comment on seeing what they did and how they did it. On June 24 2013 01:53 raynpelikoneet wrote: I have a terrible hangover so i am not going to try to have more of a headache today by rereading. I am still suspicious of Hapa. I don't think anyone who voted for DP is scum unless GK is scum too, but i find it kinda hard to believe there would be only 2 scum wagons at the end of the day. That does not just sit well with me, especially considering my scumreads are not lurkers. I still think Oats is town for what i have said and i don't like how Hapa was (and apparently is?) unable to understand my read on him. I have no idea why he thought Oats was mafia last night. I need to relook into Cora, as his reads were pretty shitty in my opinion when he last gave them. I also have suspicions towards Adam. I have no idea who he thinks is scum and that's really worrisome. On June 23 2013 13:05 raynpelikoneet wrote: You underlined it, i did not. I was saying Hapa was on GK wagon and i don't think he never pursued it as he would as town (see my original case). I am not as cheap to say "Hapa is scum because he was on the wrong wagon" as i do know that means nothing. Now, sleep. Why is it distancing? Neither is outright calling the other mafia. Rayn, however, does leave us with a little bit of insight into this. Note the semi-defensive posture taken regarding lynching Adam during N1 - he's getting a feel for whether or not he will need to all-in defend Adam at some point: On June 24 2013 05:06 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hapa, let's talk about something else than D1 for a change. You said a lot about solving this game revolves around flipping GK, and if he flipped town you would then look into ShiaoPi and Adam. I can get the ShiaoPi part, but why Adam? And do you actually think GK is mafia or what were you trying to say there? That we should lynch him to have more information on ShiaoPi/Adam? That doesn't really sound like a reason to lynch someone. Making excuses for himself regarding having reads this game, probably in response to heckling from the peanut gallery (Oats, in this case): On June 24 2013 19:10 Adam4167 wrote: around 36 hours. I do not get the same feel reading a game that I wasn't in than when I do playing in one. It clouds my reads. My obs reads are notoriously shit as a result. Trying to form legitimate scum reads was difficult this game, made especially difficult by the caliber of the players that rolled scum. So I focused on what I could do, find town reads, be as open and clear with my thought process as I could. I have been extremely upfront with the fact that my scum reads were lacking this game. On June 24 2013 19:16 Adam4167 wrote: What you're feeling as 'different' from duel mafia is simple - confidence. The second Dieno stepped into the thread in Duel, I had him bagged, Kierathi soon after. I was confident almost to a fault, I led a crusade against two reasonably townie looking players because I was running on such a high from dragging down two scum. No one was anywhere near that obvious this game, at least not to me. He cites confidence. As in confidence that people are scum. If he's the final scum, he would not be able to have any such confidence about players. Look at his more recent reads from the past day or so: 1 Paraphrased = Oats is town. Oats is probably town. Oats town. Think Oats is town. - This is an exceptional turnaround from his super willingness to lynch Oats earlier in the game for not liking his playstyle. Adam admits as much in his filter. 2 Paraphrased = Looking for any possible reason to justify lynching GK. - Ends up being from Rayn's filter, namely a lack of Rayn calling GK scum despite all of the suspicion towards GK. I'm still not seeing a lot of confidence outside of the safest call in the world that Oats is town. Quote-less version and my interpretation: - Soft attempt at steering the DP lynch towards GK - Established distance between both Rayn and Adam - Rayn fishing for Hapa's reasons why Adam would be scum - Lack of confidence in most of his reads - Declaration that Oats is town So Adam ridiculed the concept that people thought he could be mafia originally based on what was first spotted by others as what looked like distancing before Rayn died N1. My counter-point is that the distancing would have to be gentle and long term, especially after losing their GF D1, as a means to prevent any flip associations when playing from behind already. Their suspicions of each other aren't really convincing, but they are early "suspicions". Yelling at people to change their votes to GK would draw more attention to himself. The best Adam could do in this case was to hope. Hapa and Rayn's interactions during N1 lead me to believe that Rayn was fishing for information from Hapa as to why Hapa thought Adam was scum. Hapa states that his suspicion on Adam is minor and Rayn doesn't pursue it further -- his teammate is no longer in jeopardy. Adam has a self-professed lack of confidence in his reads, and from a perusal of his filter I feel I can agree. The most interesting development is his change of heart regarding Oats, and this is where I believe he has cemented his downfall -- Oats may be his key to winning this game. Who are the Oats detractors? Cora. Coag. Securing another mislynch by not killing those two CLAIMED POWER ROLES thus leaving them stuck with their stagnating read of Oats and then later leaving himself the opportunity to use their tunnels on Oats as evidence against them. He is just realizing this NOW and is preparing for one of those pushes next. Then why kill Hapa last night? Kill the town voice of reason, the most trustable person we had left who we could depend on for a well-considered view of the game and who led or shaped most of the fruitful conversations we've had. To create a void into which he could fit himself, which it seems he is trying to do right now. + Show Spoiler [side note] + Going to be gone most of tomorrow afternoon/evening for a bday party. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On June 29 2013 16:44 Adam4167 wrote: And if you truly believed a word of that, why have you just been sitting on it while I steer the thread? Why does this case on me only appear after I badger you for half a cycle to produce something. What means this? You asked me why I hadn't responded to your thing from ages ago, I presume you meant the "where I am going with this" thing? This is in response to that. Whether or not you like the timing or subject matter of it is really of no consequence to me. If you're not mafia, and you're asking me who is mafia, and I tell you it's probably you, you don't get up in my face about how it's timely or delayed or whatever or you asked for that shit twelve days ago. That's a scummy counter. Is it biased? Probably. Does it fit the form of the game state? I believe so or I wouldn't have posted it. Are you actually scum? I'll tell you after I review Sloosh when I get back. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
DP-vote related stuff: + Show Spoiler [DP vote related] + On June 23 2013 07:08 slOosh wrote: I think you are overemphasizing the 3 votes a bit - you saw that they were quickly removed as they were put on. You said yourself it doesn't make sense for town DP to do that either. So I don't understand how you are using something alignment null to say DP is leaning town. On June 23 2013 07:28 slOosh wrote: Ok Ange is now my new best friend. ##Vote: DarthPunk On June 23 2013 07:45 slOosh wrote: One reason I want to lynch DP over GK is that he prefaces his suspicions of "hey, I always find them scummy". It's a cop out of responsibility. Indecision between GK and Shiao: Why would he belabor the hell out of his decision in the thread so much? I suppose it could be as a way to appear to be contributing but honestly it all seems to fit in naturally into the conversation. I don't think I'd give scum sloosh THAT much credit but since D1 he hasn't been radiating that shining beacon of towniness. Not enough alone to give him a scum read. Unvoting GK, switching to Shiao: GK's quit/exit post. I think most of us agreed it was no normal mafia rage-quit post. Lynching Shiao sort of set us down the path of lynching the least town-looking each day in lieu of being able to locate scum. Save the JK, hope GK comes back and plays if he's not going to be lynched. Rational and thoughtful thing to do. Finally lynching GK: GK settled to quitting so there wasn't much to be done otherwise. Also going along with this, Sloosh sounds pretty in-tune with the game state: On June 28 2013 12:56 slOosh wrote: Dude, morale is a huge part of the game. Maybe it's your personality, maybe it's because you replaced in, maybe it's because you are on the chopping block, and maybe it's the vice versa for the rest of the crew, but being lazy doesn't necessitate scum. And lynching based off activity levels is foolish. And lynching based of arbitrary levels of effort is also foolish. Since when does something like motivation trump reason? I bet you, if you asked all the players after D2 that if you could choose to win or lose the game by simultaneously lynching into Hapa / Adam / Oats / GK, every single person would have taken that deal. And I bet if you ask each person that same question now, they would still take it. What's more to give? What's more to do? It's all said and done. If you want to off GK first, honestly, I'm not that adverse to it. In this last quote, the only possible mafia motivation he could have is that he's basically proposed the game is solved by elimination and he is not on the list. That doesn't make it any less the case that he's probably right. I don't see how he's mafia from this. Minute thing about Oats is that his activity has fallen off, relative to earlier days, but he does have about 1/5th of the game for his filter so... I'm still not worried about Oats, he might just be busy. ##vote Adam4167 | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
@sloosh, I'll talk you through my thoughts after I get home tonight, but I'm feeling pretty lost right now. Adam being town means maybe I'm being lenient in some way regarding either you or Oats. I'm not even considering Coag based entirely on his shot; I don't see why he wouldn't just shoot Marv N1 since he'd been pushing for it all day and it would make sense (in a sort of twisted way) to see him do that. It may come back round to Oats. Dat filter.... anyway, a project for when I get home. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 13:36 Oatsmaster wrote: which response would make you think im town? Just the facts or your own perception of the situation if you have a theory. Bullet points of you prefer not to write an essay I want to see the line of thinking there. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 13:52 Oatsmaster wrote: coag shot a dude coag is playing not objectively townie. So yeah I don't see how you don't see this So would I be interpreting your theory correctly that you think he's (now-mafia) traitor because he shot a mafia and then largely stopped playing the game? You realize we're talking about Coag, right? You believe he was playing for town until he was recruited in your scenario and that his play has drastically 180'd away from (IMO) not looking particularly townie to (objectively) not looking particularly townie... wait what? I agree he's likely literally phoning it in (posting on his phone pun, ha) but probably the largest dichotomy in the game right now is that he wants you dead and you want him dead and it's been that way for a few game days. Which day or night or whatever do you believe he was recruited? What gives you that impression? Is it just his activity? Was there something specific that he did say or possibly ignored that led you to this idea? | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Are you still bent on killing Oats? That's the gist I get from your filter. Do you think that's factoring into him wanting to lynch you? Updates please. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 14:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Thoughts on sloosh. Recently summarized my filter dive, I was definitely leaning town or more specifically highly-improbably scum. Newer stuff, reviewed: He maintains that you are scummiest and has cited that so many dead townies have been suspicious of you. This could be a reasonable position. Before that, he had this post (click) which reflected similar (and probably led to the newer post in terms of process). Heh, interestingly enough I don't think he's had a strong town read on you at all for most of this game? Last few pages of his filter contain references to dead townies' scum reads on you and that you were somewhat less scummy than Adam. Could see this as angling to keep himself fluid but then again, I feel much more confident in my ability to read you than he may find his own and I remember the madness of trying to put effort into reading your filter when we first started playing together, which he may be feeling. Your (Oats') actions speak a lot louder than your actual words. Yeah, I'd still say highly improbable he's scum unless you see something factual he's lied about to use against you, Oats (you know your filter better than me). So you're probably right, I've basically arrived at the same conclusion. Oats - your town meta, filter length, style of interview, also I laughed a couple times reading your filter (sorry didn't note your jokes) Sloosh - very vocally concerned that things are falling apart, consistent/believable thought pattern outside of his read on you Coag - shot scum, missing in action, Oats' theory may just as well match up with Coag's actions On July 02 2013 14:21 Oatsmaster wrote: I mean all this is really overkill to a simple thing. Just sharing my thoughts. I think we're on the same page at this point? | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 14:45 Oatsmaster wrote: Also Cora. Who has not played the game since GK got lynched. And who looks town cause of day 1 and RB claim thing. Cora died On July 02 2013 14:46 Oatsmaster wrote: Has there been an RB flip? No. That's basically why I have been poking you about your theory. If Coag isn't lying / hiding anything about his role then Sloosh is the last mafia or you've finally gotten a handle on your scum game. On July 02 2013 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote: I would lynch sloosh and Cora before Coag btw, I was saying that if Coag is not town, thats a possible but HIGHLY HIGHLY unlikely explanation. Another thing. Coag might be CID inspector. CID inspector is unlikely given that Marv won and left the game, isn't it? If Yamato was the Fake CID or if all CID inspectors got the same objectives then he was the last one. Another real inspector would have won as well, another fake inspector and he would not have achieved his win con. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 14:59 Oatsmaster wrote: oh lol right rightttttt. The Fake CID is flavor btw. Each CID wouldve been fake to the other. But maybe you have to actually kill the CID or you lose but you dont die. Like with Yamato JKed, Marv is the only person who couldve killed Yamato. And marv was CID. Nothing left but CID inspectors! Jokes aside, I just don't see three 3P in a game this size. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 02 2013 15:16 Oatsmaster wrote: YES. come on OO, lynch Sloosh  Hrm I was just thinking about that, actually (the stuff after the DP lynch) but I didn't recognize the lack of followup. I need to read through him one more time tomorrow. On July 02 2013 15:14 Coagulation wrote: yeah im totes town.. im thinkin a sloosh lynch.. X-Files level shit right here. I want to believe. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 03 2013 09:07 slOosh wrote: Got it! Ok. The [redacted] was something like this: DP and rayn make the pretense of lynching OO, without actually intending to lynch him. Why? Good place to start. OO has still yet to get his scum legs (wings?) nice and stretched out. He plays the scared / lurker type scum. So, scum game plan? So they do just that. It explains why both DP and rayn were making a good show about how they were on OO. OO does the same. Now what they didn't expect, was super tag team Coag / slOosh / Ange to come in and actually start voting for DP. What to do as people start talking about DP or GK? Not consolidate on your scumread. In fact, drop hints because you desperately want someone to switch, but not yourself because that's too scary. Let me repeat that. He drops his #1 scumread, because he might produce content later. He agrees, but doesn't move his own VOTE OH MY GOSH I"M REALIZING THIS AS I TYPE ##Vote: ObviousOne Haha that's pretty funny. Two of your points of evidence are made-up scum QT conversations, that's pretty cute, I have to admit. The last part you have misinterpreted entirely for your nefarious purposes. Did you read the context in which that was written? That was not dropping my scum read on DP, please re-read P51 if you are having issues with the concept. The topic at hand was the merits of choosing one or the other for people who were still on the fence. End of day, consolidation, two realistic non-shenanigan lynches. Think about it. Hell, look at Adam's post DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH it where he's basically saying the exact same thing: On June 23 2013 07:53 Adam4167 wrote: ##Vote: Goodkarma Of the two, DP looks more invested and I venture ill have a better chance at figuring him out on later days when we're the only two awake talking in the thread. And finally, since you may not be aware I just played and won a game as scum, you can read up on PTroughton2 in Smurf Mini. Your theoretical case is completely manufactured. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
##vote slOosh Your reign ends here. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 03 2013 09:09 slOosh wrote: Gj Adam. Gj. Woah holy shit are you sheeping the only dead townie from the last few days who didn't say to kill Oats? Is that why you didn't shoot Coag and shot Oats instead? So you could have this "revelation" to present to the strong-silent Coag who essentially decides town's fate? Coagplz, look at him trying to twist me on complete BS. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
Day 1: I'm gone for half of the cycle, I come back to find DP on my nuts for a policy stance. I even told you to vote DP, Coag. And you did. And then you shot Rayn, the other person who tried to get me killed willy nilly. You are town or you based Ace. DP parked his vote on me and presumably went to sleep. Rayn, I don't even remember what/if said he was going to do but he didn't move either. What did it matter one way or the other where Rayn's vote ended up, and more importantly why the fuck would both scum vote for the third scum on day 1 on an isolated wagon? Using where their votes ended as evidence against me is a stretch given neither was posting in the couple of hours before deadline. So the proposition that slOosh wants you to believe is that they fully intended to "bus" me together by the end of the day and crossed their fingers that I would be the one to flip in their absence? Why wouldn't I have resigned myself to my fate instead of pushing back as I did? If I was on a team with them it would have been the simplest thing in the world to just shut my mouth and let it go, especially in this "scenario" that slOosh proposes where I'm lurk-fest mafia (which yes, if you look at my past scum games matches a behavioral meta to a certain degree, namely Hydra Mini and Boardwalk) and they get town credit for being on the scum lynch wagon, and thus disregarded for day 2. Which is exactly the plan that Adam proposed and that slOosh had no problem with when it was presented. On June 23 2013 14:15 Adam4167 wrote: I consider everyone on the DP wagon to be out of the question for tomorrow. 5 days later he's still embracing it and twisting it to cast suspicion on Oats? On June 28 2013 00:37 slOosh wrote: I could say the same thing of you. You cite inactivity as a reason why you want to lynch me, even though we just played a game where I had a 1 page (1 page!) filter day 1. It's hard to figure out your alignment because you are trying to direct us into lynching people who were on the DP wagon which is absolute nonsense. I'm trying to figure stuff out and it's possible I might be grasping at straws, because that's honestly what I'm doing. Everyone looks town. I'm trying to find tiebreakers. If it means I target your nonsense, then that's that. And last night Oats dies. slOosh's greatest detractor, the last remaining person with a longstanding 1v1 in the game, and you think that I had any motivation to kill Oats? He DEFINITELY had motivation to kill Oats. Because he only needs to convince you, Coag. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 04 2013 07:36 slOosh wrote: I hammered DP. OO waffled around and even tried to get people to vote GK (but was too scared to do it himself), even though he had DP as a strong scum read. Oh you mean like how you ended up voting for DP? You didn't call DP scum ever before he flipped. Ange did it for you. On June 23 2013 07:28 slOosh wrote: Ok Ange is now my new best friend. ##Vote: DarthPunk With your "slightly tipping the scales" towards DP? On June 23 2013 07:45 slOosh wrote: One reason I want to lynch DP over GK is that he prefaces his suspicions of "hey, I always find them scummy". It's a cop out of responsibility. I wouldn't call that confidence. How can you take credit for the hammer when it looks like you barely even believed your scum read on DP, so far as to essentially let Ange do the talking for you? Would you also be so keen to take ownership of your hammer vote if we had gotten a town flip instead? The fact is, I helped lead that wagon, you just came along for the ride. | ||
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
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ObviousOne
United States3704 Posts
On July 04 2013 10:37 slOosh wrote: OO has been coasting hard with "semi-confirmed" status since N1, with no interest in actually finding scum until now, which is lylo, which is when scum have to pull off the mislynch themselves. Find me one true scum read in his filter. Show me where he puts effort in getting someone lynched. Quote where he tries to actively figure crap out instead of coasting like a scum who is riding town cred would. artist relevant actually, maybe the title too [the preceeding is a dramatization, no animals were harmed in the production of this post] I'd rather know what Coag wants to ask about than what you can spin up. | ||
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