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On May 01 2013 05:20 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 05:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 01 2013 05:17 VisceraEyes wrote:On May 01 2013 05:13 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 30 2013 22:40 TheRavensName wrote:On April 30 2013 22:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 30 2013 22:30 TheRavensName wrote:On April 30 2013 22:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
OK so as I have been thinking recently.
We know there is one jailkeeper running around.
We know there are 3 dt claims(one now dead)
We know there is one mason still masoning, and one who is dead
We know we have 1 dead miller and 1 claimed miller(wos)
We know a mafia vig and a mafia framer are dead
We know a second rb happened n1. This means
a) palmar is lying
b) I am lying
c) An inactive town is a jailkeeper and has been mia for all nights since.
Given 2 millers, 1 framer. I find it extremely unlikely that we have two dts who have fucked up sanities. Insane is very easy to prove, as is insane. We know based on checks that obviousone is town, and palmar has a guilty check on him, I know I am town and he has a guilty check on me. Given that we have only been seeing 1 rb since n1 and joats can't rb as a power I am inclined to say Palmar is scum.
We know 100% that shiaopi is scum based on CC however I believe Palmar should be dealt with next at this time. Who was the second RB night 1? I only recall seeing Palmar. Me Ah I see... Well that works then. Truth be told i think it fits a bit with how hes acted. Even the QT, which is probably kinda eh evidence, would lend to this: He wouldn't want to push a case that isn't being discussed actively as it would make him stand out too much no matter the flip. If he is 3rd party, he could have overlapped a shot with the mafia or taken a hit and claimed Roleblocked to safely explain both. Kinda surprised you didn't mention this before today though like on day 3 when we only had 1 roleblock and people were saying at least one cop had to be fake. I claimed this day 2 -_- BC I'm rooting for you to win in the upcoming match! Ace looks way more townie though, but he tried to oppose my ShiaoPi lynch, and verily called him town for two days. I have faith that if you're townie you'll make me see it soon enough. In the meantime know that I'm pulling for you. Why would I care about Ace in said argue match? He is clearly not mafia in my books. He could be 3p but forcing a lynch onto a scum from another scum when both were insanely inactive and useless doesn't scream like a scum move. That screams like ace liking his lynch choice more than anyone else. I think I have made it insanely clear that Palmar is scum or 3p at this point. His actions don't make sense in any way from a town standpoint. I'm with you there - cop claim is fishy as hell, like, as if Paranoid Cop wasn't the most predictable scum fake-claim EVER amirite?
Let alone trying to get a top player lynched on a single check, not doing things he promised, etc... His play is not that of a town aligned player. Given the fake claim I would say more likely scum given that his claim could have caused a ton of confusion and thus fucked town over hard. The counter claiming by two dts where somewhat dumb on one hand is a good way to determine legitimacy of the others given how they played after the claims.
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On May 01 2013 05:29 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 05:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 30 2013 23:26 Sharrant wrote:
I don't see a town jailer doing that, to be honest. My most likely scenario is:
N1:
Palmar jailed (seemed to be the towniest looking Vet in a lot of people's eyes)
BC RB'ed
N2:
Ace Jailed (Just lynched scum)
Either Ace also RB'ed or maybe RB on their shot (not sure if that messes with veteran orSK/SP protection in this game.)
N3
??? Jailed
VE RB'ed
I will be considering VE confirmed town because of this. The exception is if it was a town jailer who jailed BC, Ace was double jailed, and the jailer did not think the plan through and decided to VE because... terrible reasoning? It seems like a stretch to think of this as two town jailers.
But I would wager that Palmar and Ace were both town jailed. I guess it remains to be seen if there's another roleblocked player. But a town jailer jailing VE just does not make sense to me. This post doesn't make sense. The only way to be roleblocked in this game is to be jailed. IE for me to be roleblocked n1 requires me being jailed. As it would with Palmar. N2 we only had ace rb'ed and VE on n3. These all count as protections as well. I find it extremely unlikely that one jailkeeper is so inactive to not send in their power use for two night periods. Given that I doubt BH would be so much of an ass to not let mafia control an inactive member of their teams powers it means a town jailer has been mia 99% of the game or one of Palmar and I is lying about n1. I know what my pms say thus I say palmar and if he lied about that he sure as hell is lying about his claim. Or scum JOAT, as TRN and I discussed. That would fulfill the possibility that neither of you is lying.
Except according to the OP JOATs can't roleblock.
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On May 01 2013 06:24 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 06:22 geript wrote:
I think we should consider looking into Artanis and stutters. I mean, why would the host replace inactive town just to mod kill scum? Host WIFOM will get us nowhere. Not to say I disagree with looking into Artanis/Stutters, they're both VERY low content players who deserve scrutiny - but do it based on that and not because of who was modkilled.
So far 3 mafia have been warned for inactivity, stutters also was warned at the same time as shiaopi, coincidence? I think not.
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On May 01 2013 06:29 TheRavensName wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 06:21 VisceraEyes wrote:
We don't have enough kills for there to be an SK or poisoner do we? I mean, they oculd have been hiding it on likely medic protects or something, but both SK and poisoner are compulsive and we've gone a couple nights with 1 kill right? 3rd Party pierce protection.
except jailkeeping protection
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On May 01 2013 06:30 VisceraEyes wrote:
Well that still works with 1KP, perhaps scum shot the protected guy?
I don't know, it's all speculation. But because we've gone a couple nights with 1 kp I think it's logical to at least say it's less likely that there's poisoner/SK around.
I would say its unlikely we have an sk and more likely we have a poisoner. I say this because we have only had 1 night with 2 kp. I highly doubt an sk has managed to shoot protected targets 2 nights when they are compulsive. Poisoner could exist. A mafia jack could exist and thus explain the 2 kp one night as well.
However I think we can rule out sk as I highly doubt one could be that unlucky so many times by hitting protected targets / stacking hits with mafia.
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On May 01 2013 06:49 ObviousOne wrote:
BC? IIRC check his filter it's short and sweet if it was him
I was blocked n1 not n2
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On May 01 2013 06:52 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh wait. Can town JOAT JK? Cause I has a theory if so. If not its the above.
no joat can jk
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On May 01 2013 07:35 VisceraEyes wrote:Is he a better check than say Artanis? I was gonna check Artanis since he keeps promising to do stuff and keeps complaining about having done stuff and I can't see any stuff he's actually done. 
Don't forget stutters. Guy has promised to do work for ages and never does shit but show up to avoid inactivity issues.
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On May 01 2013 07:44 WaveofShadow wrote:
Why the fuck do we have so few confirmed town this late in the game.
Because so many people have played like trolls
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On May 01 2013 09:04 kushm4sta wrote:this is scum? i dont think so Show nested quote +On April 27 2013 18:58 Palmar wrote:
Still think VE is the best lynch.
But I do agree with a clarity lynch. I still don't understand how he entered the thread "catching up" and then had a fully fledged case within an hour. There was additionally no interest in pushing that lynch any harder. There is literally not a single "sharrant" in his filter after the case.
It just doesn't feel natural. He didn't ask Sharrant anything to try to determine his alignment, no "hey sharrant, explain this" or "what do you think about this". Just a straight up case with no build-up and no follow-up. Which basically tells me his heart wasn't really in it.
So with that I'm switching my vote to Clarity.
Lessgo.
How is that not "scummy" in any sense. "I still think VE is the best lynch, but ima essentially mimic thread sentiment and hop on this bandwagon now"
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On May 01 2013 09:09 kushm4sta wrote:
well his reasoning is good and perfect but I guess that would actually make sense if he was busing
He showed up after doing fuck all and said "I want ve dead but instead ima vote for who you guys are voting for" jesus
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On May 01 2013 09:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
BC: Palmar or Yamato - who gets the lynch tomorrow and why?
Palmar first barring weird what the fuckness between now and when the day starts/progresses
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On May 01 2013 09:12 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 09:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
BC: Palmar or Yamato - who gets the lynch tomorrow and why?
I believe I have summed up before in earlier posts about my suspicions of him no?
If you need a new summary
He has done basically nothing to help the town
He appears to only be doing what he does for shits and giggles
He claimed DT with one red check purely to get me lynched when he knows dts can have sanity issues
He has promised analysis and never delivered
I believe because of these things he is scum
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On May 01 2013 09:19 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 09:17 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 01 2013 09:12 VisceraEyes wrote:On May 01 2013 09:10 VisceraEyes wrote:
BC: Palmar or Yamato - who gets the lynch tomorrow and why? I believe I have summed up before in earlier posts about my suspicions of him no? If you need a new summary He has done basically nothing to help the town He appears to only be doing what he does for shits and giggles He claimed DT with one red check purely to get me lynched when he knows dts can have sanity issues He has promised analysis and never delivered I believe because of these things he is scum Show nested quote +On April 26 2013 06:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 26 2013 05:58 VisceraEyes wrote:
So is there a reason Yamato is a better lynch than Ace or Palmar to you? Because I feel Yamato is 100% scum whereas the other two could be scum or third party. Of those two I would lynch Palmar first though What has changed?
Yamato is trying in some varying degree so I feel I could be wrong now. Instead of 100% im more sitting on like 80% whereas Palmar's behaviour since just before and everything after his cop claim has just been insanely scumlike. I believe there is a strong possibility of both being scum, however in this case I feel Palmar's play has been far more scummy.
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On May 01 2013 00:36 yamato77 wrote:
The narrative I've managed to work out in my head feels rather conspiracy-theorist, so I'm not sure if I'm right or not. Wishy washy stances, yeah yeah, but it's something I've been thinking about since the syl flip.
So assuming Shiao is mafia, that makes the day 2 wagons BOTH mafia. People that felt there was little difference between them would be largely absolved, in my opinion. What would then be strange were the two people who argued over the two of them, VE and Ace.
As I said before, there is a clear scum motivation in saving Shiao and bussing Clarity, because Clarity was likely to be mod killed anyway and highly inactive. Ace proposes that this lost the scum team 2 KP, and it did, but it actually served to SAVE a scum member, since before Ace's push, Shiao was the one getting lynched. Some time in day 2, people began to realize just how inactive Clarity was, and it became apparent that he was more than likely to be mod killed. So the Clarity bus, assuming Shiao is mafia, is actually making the best out of a shit situation.
Ace also argues in his filter that the scum team would have pushed an alternative target, but people fail to realize that this person was me. Thread sentiment has been against me the entire game, and even the way Ace develops his suspicion of me on day 1 is worth looking at. And on day 2, there is no shortage of referring to me being a possible lynch candidate in Ace's filter.
What adds on to this for me is that his metric for determining the better lynch between Clarity/Shiao is somewhat suspect. Most of it no longer applies, because in knowing that Clarity was scum, and Shiao was scum, we realize that him not voting his scum buddy in the time he was there is not weird whatsoever. The VCA that "scummy people" from the Oats wagon were on the Shiao wagon is also complete bullshit, and I've been over that before.
Another thing is the choice of NK, CC. His check was the one on Shiao, and it was this check that Ace wanted to argue against, that CC was suspicious for his claim and not to be trusted. Later, he goes on to about face once he realizes people are believing CC and plays along with this whole thing, but he's still disruptive in the sense that he wanted cops to check each other, which CC was obviously against from a look at his filter. So with VE complying, and Palmar being a wildcard and under some suspicion, he NK's the cop everyone believes that isn't following his circle jerk plan.
Shiao flipping a scum largely invalidates the largest part of why people should believe Ace as town, which were his day 2 actions with the lynch. When you eliminate that, which is a large portion of his actual contribution this game, his filter devolves significantly, and you're left with a lot of arguing with people and insulting others, along with bullying people for their read on him.
So yeah, Ace could definitely be scum.
A mafia player could attempt to do this, however a post like this is also something I would expect out of a town player as well. Is it the best contribution? No, and do I agree with it? No. However I would say this is actually a "trying" post.
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Keep in mind VE, I still think Yamato is very likely to flip mafia, I just believe Palmar is going to flip mafia for sure.
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On May 01 2013 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On May 01 2013 09:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 01 2013 00:36 yamato77 wrote:
The narrative I've managed to work out in my head feels rather conspiracy-theorist, so I'm not sure if I'm right or not. Wishy washy stances, yeah yeah, but it's something I've been thinking about since the syl flip.
So assuming Shiao is mafia, that makes the day 2 wagons BOTH mafia. People that felt there was little difference between them would be largely absolved, in my opinion. What would then be strange were the two people who argued over the two of them, VE and Ace.
As I said before, there is a clear scum motivation in saving Shiao and bussing Clarity, because Clarity was likely to be mod killed anyway and highly inactive. Ace proposes that this lost the scum team 2 KP, and it did, but it actually served to SAVE a scum member, since before Ace's push, Shiao was the one getting lynched. Some time in day 2, people began to realize just how inactive Clarity was, and it became apparent that he was more than likely to be mod killed. So the Clarity bus, assuming Shiao is mafia, is actually making the best out of a shit situation.
Ace also argues in his filter that the scum team would have pushed an alternative target, but people fail to realize that this person was me. Thread sentiment has been against me the entire game, and even the way Ace develops his suspicion of me on day 1 is worth looking at. And on day 2, there is no shortage of referring to me being a possible lynch candidate in Ace's filter.
What adds on to this for me is that his metric for determining the better lynch between Clarity/Shiao is somewhat suspect. Most of it no longer applies, because in knowing that Clarity was scum, and Shiao was scum, we realize that him not voting his scum buddy in the time he was there is not weird whatsoever. The VCA that "scummy people" from the Oats wagon were on the Shiao wagon is also complete bullshit, and I've been over that before.
Another thing is the choice of NK, CC. His check was the one on Shiao, and it was this check that Ace wanted to argue against, that CC was suspicious for his claim and not to be trusted. Later, he goes on to about face once he realizes people are believing CC and plays along with this whole thing, but he's still disruptive in the sense that he wanted cops to check each other, which CC was obviously against from a look at his filter. So with VE complying, and Palmar being a wildcard and under some suspicion, he NK's the cop everyone believes that isn't following his circle jerk plan.
Shiao flipping a scum largely invalidates the largest part of why people should believe Ace as town, which were his day 2 actions with the lynch. When you eliminate that, which is a large portion of his actual contribution this game, his filter devolves significantly, and you're left with a lot of arguing with people and insulting others, along with bullying people for their read on him.
So yeah, Ace could definitely be scum. A mafia player could attempt to do this, however a post like this is also something I would expect out of a town player as well. Is it the best contribution? No, and do I agree with it? No. However I would say this is actually a "trying" post. BC stop it. You know beyond a shadow of a doubt that was one of the dumbest posts in this thread. Come on rofl.
I personally find the dumbest posts in the thread are from townies lol. Mafia teams have people to go "don't say that you fucking retard"
I don't agree with the post but seriously its hard to see a mafia making it. However the like 4 - 5 pages of his filter before that are all "im mafia posts" -_-
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Ill admit, that is pretty damning.
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On May 01 2013 09:43 Ace wrote:just go through his filter and look at the extreme pretzel logic he uses to justify someone being Scum. "yes, Ace brought up 3 suspects, 2 of which did flip Scum. But seriously, he tried to bring me up too! wait what? he ignored me and lynched clarity? well fuck that's his scumbuddy! he called shiaopi town, and the guy flipped red! LEADING LYNCHES OF SCUM MAKES YOU SCUM TOO! I DONT CARE IF THERE WERE 20 PEOPLE ALIVE AND A BUS MAKES NO FUCKING SENSE! SCREW LOGIC! ![[image loading]](http://c0014540.r32.cf1.rackcdn.com/x2_f377112)
I missed playing games with you lol
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On May 01 2013 09:55 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright are we lynching into an active or inactive player tomorrow? Personally I think it's going to have to be active (ie the yamato/palmar group v stutters/kush/giygas). I'm not set on yamato so much just yet and I'm not sure what turned thread sentiment around so quickly, so I'm still going to be leaning Palmar who hasn't done dick all in quite a while. Wouldn't be surprised if he gave up given his scumteam. BC the one thing I find odd with one of your points against Palmar is the fact that he tried to get you lynched based on a redcheck of you with no sanity confirmation. Why would a scum Palmar do that? He obviously knows better than to think that alone would get people to listen to him.
TRN how goes the mason QT?
Why would town Palmar do it? Town would know no one is going to lynch on just a red check without knowing your sanity. Mafia at least can create some convoluted situation where they live longer and increase their odds of surviving. Hell his claim even drew out two other dt claims. I'd call that win win if I was mafia in a pinch. At this point they would have to gamble hard to win.
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EPT
